Members Daily Post: 06/02/19 (complete)

Tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, updates/results etc

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Ayr

1.30 –

Asking For Answers   (all Hc’s) 18/1 S2A UP

Fairlee Grace   (HcH) 13/2 UP

2.35 –

Road To Gold   (nov HcCh) H3 G3 5/1 UP

Glittering Love   (nov HcCh )  w1 w2 H1 I1 G1 11/10 S4 WON 2/1 

3.05 –

Paper Roses   (HcH) I1 5/1 UP

Talkofgold   (all Hc’s) 14/1 S2 UP

Camile   (HcH)  w2 H3 G1 13/2 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)  WON 10/1 , 15.4 BFSP, so S1 

3.35 – Raise A Spark   (nov HcCh) H3 I3 G3 3/1 S4 

4.10 – Prince Dundee   (micro TJC) 8/1 

 

Ludlow

2.45 – Oscar Rose   (m class) H3 I1 G3 5/1 UP

 

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

 

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -8.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/9,2p, -1)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/153,68p, +1.8, 1 point win)

3.05 Ayr – Paper Roses – 5/1 (gen) UP 7/1… very poor, no excuse, an easy lead, but has gone out like a light two out. Clearly Camile still had plenty in hand, winning for S1 at 15.4, so not a bad result, bar further dented pride! 

that’s all, 09.30, write up to follow..

This mare’s consistency deserves to be rewarded at some stage and I’m hoping it’s today. This is only her 4th handicap hurdle start and she’s come second on her other 3, all 20f. She is now 0/13 in her career but has run over the wrong trips in plenty of those, and all novice races. Having watched a few replays back she appears to have a great attitude and just keeps bumping into the odd one, with big gaps back to the rest. Having said that, in those three handicap runs… Perth was probably too quick and she didn’t fully put down on it under pressure, but only beaten 1L, at Ayr in Nov 17 she was returning after 203 days off but showed up for a long way and kept on, and then in Carlisle she bumped into one again but was fighting back at the line. She returned to action on 12th December over 16f in a C4 novice. She ran well enough there and certainly wasn’t given a hard time, beaten 3L. The winner was 2/5 and has since won again, and is now rated 117. Whillans is 5/23,10p here with his handicap hurdlers, 3/12,5p in class 4, 1/5,3p with those returning 60+ days off, as some guide to his ability to ready them. This break is a slight niggle but it could simple be to the odd abandoned meeting or lack of suitable ground. She races prominently, or can do, in a race with little pace on paper – it’s not impossible Callum tries to dictate here, or track the fav.

The dangers.. well the Richards horse is the obvious one but she can be recalcitrant and refused to line up when last meant to race at Newcastle. There’s a chance this turns into a bit of a dash over this 19.5 f, which isn’t sure to suit her. She may get away with it and does make handicap hurdle debut, her form LTO being franked to a point, but I thought she was short enough given that profile whereas mine looked a shade overpriced. I was happy to take on the rest at the prices – Elliot’s is exposed enough really and i’m not sure he’s well handicapped. I don’t know what to make on him but hopefully Davy is here for the other three of Elliots on the card. Camile has a stamina question and is 14lb above that Leicester win, on a career high mark. Maybe she will shrug that off but I wasn’t convinced. Gold Runner hasn’t shown much yet and didn’t jump that well when last seen, but does step up in trip which may help. Enough questions for now though. Jessiemac has to prove she’s up to this class/level I think, the trainer is 0/45 in the last year. I can leave at 13/2. TalkofGold has enough questions to answer at the moment also.

This looks winnable for Paper Roses, if she runs her usual consistent race, she should get her first win to my eyes, or in any case is overpriced to do so. She should relish conditions and shouldn’t be far away.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey 

1.40 L – Dorking Boy 5/2 UP

3.45 L – Lady Cylla 7/1

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide)

4.10 A – Fergiethelegend 11/2

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2019/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

3.15 L – Henryville 8/1

Trainers to Follow

3.45 L – Lady Cylla 7/1  / Via Delle Volte 6/4

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

2.35 A- Vasco Dycy 11/1

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Tipping Competition…

The forum (which you can find HERE>>>) is working for some of you but most don’t seem to be able to post, with the ‘you need to log in’ message (when you’re logged in) There’s clearly some technical gremlins my end, it won’t be anything to do with you or your browser’s/settings I don’t think. Anyway, if you can post the comp tips in there, do, but if not clearly just keep posting in the comments as usual. Remember you can start whenever you want, you just have to tip at least 20 horses a month. There’s a discretionary prize as well for general contributions, tipping based and opinion/discussion based. That may not be every month, but is a potential bonus for those of you who add to the community, which is arguably this places best feature! 🙂

*

Results / Where To Start… ?? 

I’ve updated The KEY.. HERE>>> 

All results have been updated to end of 2018, with the 4 main strategies updated to end Jan, as well as all the Test Zone angles.

Part of my job is to try and guide you as to how/what to get stuck into, and i’m not sure i’ve done the best job on that front, esp for the Winter Season Ticket subscribers, but given the numbers still with us, that’s a testament to your long term vision! Maybe I’m a bit mentally wounded given my current struggles and what was generally a poor Jan.

I’ve always said less is more, especially if starting something new. I’ve hinted at the following portfolio before, but maybe I could have been more forceful.

There are 4 elements which you could start with/include in any portfolio…

  • Strategy: S1 (2018: +77 BFSP) 
  • Strategy S3A# (2018: +76 early/morn) 
  • My Big Race Tips (inc Free) (2018 +183 advised)
  • Nick Mazur (2018: +532 points, mainly 1 pt EW, when advised, available with at least x3 bookies)

Total: +868 points

Now, it would clearly be mad if those figures were repeated in 2019, but even half wouldn’t be too shabby. Those are real profits from live play.

S1 + S3A# ... I’ve tried to bang the drum for those, as the logic is very solid, given the use of the ratings pointers (red symbols) + my stats. They have started off 2019 fine, +15 between the two in Jan and were the only shining light from my content in an otherwise woeful January. They combine a bigger odds strategy, with one that keeps operating at a decent win SR.

My Big Race Tips… well I do still have confidence in myself on that front and, touch wood, have always churned out the profits LONG term 🙂 They can be a bumpy ride, especially when playing in 12/16+ runner C2/G3 handicaps. But March/April has served me well in the past and i’ll keep everything crossed that it may do so again.

It’s pretty hard for me to enthuse much confidence over my daily tipping efforts and I just have to face the music with those. I’m just not very good on this front yet. I hate being crap at anything really, especially racing related, and I will get there, but the results speak for themselves sadly. Freezing cold, and I am still flailing around for a disciplined approach in my head.

Nick.. well i’m sure he won’t mind me singling him out. On what he’s done to date since posting his tips, he’s the best among us. 2018 was quite ridiculous but such are his high standards, I won’t be surprised if he surpasses it this year. His +5 January looks positively glorious compared to some of us! (ahem)

If you’re not already, strong consideration should be made to following those four, or even just 1 or 2 of them. They should perform just fine in 2019, over the course of the year. It would be a decent return to £2 bets, building up over time.

Others… well like me, Colin has struggled a bit and he won’t mind me saying that. He’s a stalwart and will bounce back, in what has been a testing period for us both. (as I type he’s just had a winner at Newcastle which should cheer him up, and he’s been in this game long enough to know these blips will pass)

Tim’s had a great start to his unique approach, using min BFSP odds in novice/maiden’s generally. His value eye is something else. Stewart keeps landing on decent winners and could be the most underrated one among us.. are you +70 odd now, or am I making that up?? 🙂 Another 20/1 winner at the weekend, with his focus on high quality races. Solid results since he started posting more regularly in the autumn sometime (i forget, apols). Solent has done well since he started posting, and unlike some had a very good Jan also. And there will be others I haven’t mentioned, so apologies. The tipping comp will unearth a few stars as well i suspect.

So, despite some gloom, (mainly my own tipping efforts) the general picture isn’t too bad, but clearly this game can feel a struggle at times, and I need to make sure i’m doing all I can to highlight possible options. Always trying (unlike some of my tips 🙂 )

Anyway, as always comments/polite criticism/moans are welcome either on here or in private 🙂

*

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

152 Responses

    1. Hi Ken, well i’m hoping it will be fixed asap, but that’s not a bad idea. I don’t like to clutter too much, but that is an option. I’ll leave it for Wednesday, and if not sorted by Thursday may do just that – it can get a bit much, i’m aware of that. I didn’t think a £50 lure would be so popular!! 🙂

      1. Can the forum be split into days? Otherwise, by the end of the month there will be hundreds of posts to scroll through.

  1. Hi Josh, just a quick thumbs up from me. Been involved with your site for a couple of months now and really enjoying the journey. Every day seems to supply me with a few smiles as I read all the banter that goes on amongst members! As for the gambling side, well have to say it’s a great eye opener. I’m not making a fortune but never expected to. Currently I am showing a 24pt profit which I am extremely pleased with after a turbulent January!! A word of thanks to your good self Josh for all the hard work you put in and also to the other members who make daily contributions. I have to say I find this all great fun, which I think and hope it is supposed to be! Best wishes to all involved, Tom.

    1. Hear Hear Tom I’m with you. I’m getting better at picking out which tips from everyone to back and which to leave. The daily conversation is excellent.

      On the tipping comp front, for me it’s not the fifty quid, it’s the discipline required to select two or three best bets from the day’s selections. Not doing so well but it’s fun! 🙂

      1. call out to the mc 🙂
        2.55 Kempton 5 Chantresse (IRE) Probert, David Usher, M D I

        ……………… is on our system 🙂

        gl/gb 🙂

        1. Cheers G, Usher says she’s new to the
          Yard and they’re still finding out about her but she she seems the form horse in the race
          Thanks for sharing 🙂

          1. Hey G, just seen that the trainer/jockey state for Chantresse are 40% win 60% place over last year! Get on!

  2. 100 comments on the members page today (as at now) – that must be a record?
    Can I concur that tips for the monthly competition should be allocated a separate page.

  3. I also agree with Ken. A separate post for the tips is a good idea.

    Onto tomorrow.
    3.15 Western Miller
    4.10 So Satisfied
    8.15 Fethiye Boy

    1/10 so far
    -8.1 BFSP

  4. Feb Comp Tip – 18.45 Wolverhampton Sha La La La Lee 11/4 – Goes well fresh, won here after similar break, front runs so draw 1 good
    R/T 3W/2L +14.39 BFSP

    1. Well Nick, I haven’t a clue where you pluck tips like this from.
      I backed it ew as recommended, but it was more in hope than expectation. I never expected to even get place money back.
      What a cracking start to the day.
      Cheers.

      1. I mean Nick could no doubt explain for himself, but were he not 6s when i looked I may have been close to him, but Nick is setting the standard with this sort. My reflections post race… (thought about 80% of this pre race… not enough in depth on some of points below)
        -he was a point winner, so we knew he could win at least, that also suggested that he would want a trip in time.
        -this was only the 5th rules run of his life, unexposed, more to come one day. His second run in a handicap.
        -this was a less competitive race than that uttoxeter one, most in here looked a bit more exposed, – a midlands/southern C5 versus a northern/scottish C5, there’s often a difference. (i didn’t appreciate that enough in my pre race thinking, whereas Nick did, thankfully for us all!) As Dixon pointed out on RTV also, he raced on the inside there on much the worse ground, and travelled up well for a long way, a slight drop in trip today, with a big field/solid pace.
        -The trainer was in form in last 14 days, and doesn’t sent many on this long trek, 1/5,2p with his Ayr raiders before today, 1/2 with this jockey on – 9lb below his last run with the claim added.
        -had to ask whether he was well handicapped… well that Bangor run 3 starts go, over too short a trip, probably not race fit etc – he was beaten 33L but that doesn’t tell the full story… the front 3 have all since won, and are solid 130 horses.. at 1lb per length over jumps, in theory he could have had a mark of around 100, but races off 84 here effectively. I think his point form is decent also (i didn’t clock that pre race)

        Anyway, I may have missed something, but I suspect that covers most of Nick’s reasons! These are the sorts where the profit lies i handicap hurdles, generally. Nick sets the bar on finding them, whereas I need to up my game, but i think if he was 8s at 8-9am, i may have had a winner, but easy to say after of course!

        Josh

        1. Well done again and thank you Nick. I attempt wherever possible to get the price – or very close – as stated the evening beforehand (unless its up later) For what its worth ( and bear in mid my stakes are between 10 and 20) i am very often able to get on at the price recommended on Betfair, and sometimes even a point or two higher. Occasionally i lose 1/4 to 1/2 a point but overall i average out at roughly same prices as Nick. Look forward to sensible compounding over the year but realise the higher the stake the more challenging it will be to hit prices!

        1. Great pick Nick, nice ride from the jockey there. From watching that I get the feeling that horse doesn’t like being in front haha it was looking to see where the others were after going in front. Thanks

        2. Very nice one, thought he was out of it there! So we are on our way to + 300 points now. Pay for some steak in South America that one.

  5. New Inform System Builder AW 8 to 10 furlong system I have come up with so I thought I would put it up.

    Wolves 19.15 Sea Shack E/W 9/1 Bet365.

    1. Hi Greg, I’ve been using the Inform System Builder too and has helped me narrow down my angles. Time will tell but had a success today.

      1. Hi Ken, I think it’s a good bit of kit I’m hoping Ian adds a few more features like the ability and form columns, I’m sure we would be able to come up with a few decent systems using them. My problem is time, when the winter period is over I hope to be able to produce some more, only have 2 at the moment both on the AW.

        Good Luck with anything you back today.

        Greg

  6. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT +3.94

    No bets.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT+28.58

    1pt win 3.35 Ayr – Zalvados

    Will settle to 10am prices

  7. My only tip so far was a non-runner so I’m yet to get off the mark.

    Two for 6th Feb
    3.15 Ludlow – Deauville Dancer
    3.25 Kempton – Villette

    1. Hi Ken, well i’m hoping it will be fixed asap, but that’s not a bad idea. I don’t like to clutter too much, but that is an option. I’ll leave it for Wednesday, and if not sorted by Thursday may do just that – it can get a bit much, i’m aware of that. I didn’t think a £50 lure would be so popular!! 🙂

      1. Can the forum be split into days? Otherwise, by the end of the month there will be hundreds of posts to scroll through.

  8. Hi Josh, just a quick thumbs up from me. Been involved with your site for a couple of months now and really enjoying the journey. Every day seems to supply me with a few smiles as I read all the banter that goes on amongst members! As for the gambling side, well have to say it’s a great eye opener. I’m not making a fortune but never expected to. Currently I am showing a 24pt profit which I am extremely pleased with after a turbulent January!! A word of thanks to your good self Josh for all the hard work you put in and also to the other members who make daily contributions. I have to say I find this all great fun, which I think and hope it is supposed to be! Best wishes to all involved, Tom.

    1. Hear Hear Tom I’m with you. I’m getting better at picking out which tips from everyone to back and which to leave. The daily conversation is excellent.

      On the tipping comp front, for me it’s not the fifty quid, it’s the discipline required to select two or three best bets from the day’s selections. Not doing so well but it’s fun! 🙂

      1. call out to the mc 🙂
        2.55 Kempton 5 Chantresse (IRE) Probert, David Usher, M D I

        ……………… is on our system 🙂

        gl/gb 🙂

        1. Cheers G, Usher says she’s new to the
          Yard and they’re still finding out about her but she she seems the form horse in the race
          Thanks for sharing 🙂

          1. Hey G, just seen that the trainer/jockey state for Chantresse are 40% win 60% place over last year! Get on!

  9. 100 comments on the members page today (as at now) – that must be a record?
    Can I concur that tips for the monthly competition should be allocated a separate page.

  10. I also agree with Ken. A separate post for the tips is a good idea.

    Onto tomorrow.
    3.15 Western Miller
    4.10 So Satisfied
    8.15 Fethiye Boy

    1/10 so far
    -8.1 BFSP

  11. today’s selections (please note staking)
    Ludlow.
    2-45. Burn Baby Byrne 1/2 pt ew
    3-15. Western Miller 13-2 1 pt ew
    4-20. Sentimentaljourney 66-1 1/4 pt ew
    Ayr.
    4-10. So Satisfied 16-1 1/2 pt ew

  12. Feb Comp Tip – 18.45 Wolverhampton Sha La La La Lee 11/4 – Goes well fresh, won here after similar break, front runs so draw 1 good
    R/T 3W/2L +14.39 BFSP

        1. Great pick Nick, nice ride from the jockey there. From watching that I get the feeling that horse doesn’t like being in front haha it was looking to see where the others were after going in front. Thanks

          1. oh he still looked a baby didn’t he, he was never really travelling in that, well, was niggled just to keep in touch with them, but then the stamina kicked in as they swung for home and he didn’t get after him until he had to, making sure he got over the last first. Has enjoyed that track I think. Great pick from Nick.

        2. Very nice one, thought he was out of it there! So we are on our way to + 300 points now. Pay for some steak in South America that one.

    1. Well Nick, I haven’t a clue where you pluck tips like this from.
      I backed it ew as recommended, but it was more in hope than expectation. I never expected to even get place money back.
      What a cracking start to the day.
      Cheers.

      1. I mean Nick could no doubt explain for himself, but were he not 6s when i looked I may have been close to him, but Nick is setting the standard with this sort. My reflections post race… (thought about 80% of this pre race… not enough in depth on some of points below)
        -he was a point winner, so we knew he could win at least, that also suggested that he would want a trip in time.
        -this was only the 5th rules run of his life, unexposed, more to come one day. His second run in a handicap.
        -this was a less competitive race than that uttoxeter one, most in here looked a bit more exposed, – a midlands/southern C5 versus a northern/scottish C5, there’s often a difference. (i didn’t appreciate that enough in my pre race thinking, whereas Nick did, thankfully for us all!) As Dixon pointed out on RTV also, he raced on the inside there on much the worse ground, and travelled up well for a long way, a slight drop in trip today, with a big field/solid pace.
        -The trainer was in form in last 14 days, and doesn’t sent many on this long trek, 1/5,2p with his Ayr raiders before today, 1/2 with this jockey on – 9lb below his last run with the claim added.
        -had to ask whether he was well handicapped… well that Bangor run 3 starts go, over too short a trip, probably not race fit etc – he was beaten 33L but that doesn’t tell the full story… the front 3 have all since won, and are solid 130 horses.. at 1lb per length over jumps, in theory he could have had a mark of around 100, but races off 84 here effectively. I think his point form is decent also (i didn’t clock that pre race)

        Anyway, I may have missed something, but I suspect that covers most of Nick’s reasons! These are the sorts where the profit lies i handicap hurdles, generally. Nick sets the bar on finding them, whereas I need to up my game, but i think if he was 8s at 8-9am, i may have had a winner, but easy to say after of course!

        Josh

        1. Well done again and thank you Nick. I attempt wherever possible to get the price – or very close – as stated the evening beforehand (unless its up later) For what its worth ( and bear in mid my stakes are between 10 and 20) i am very often able to get on at the price recommended on Betfair, and sometimes even a point or two higher. Occasionally i lose 1/4 to 1/2 a point but overall i average out at roughly same prices as Nick. Look forward to sensible compounding over the year but realise the higher the stake the more challenging it will be to hit prices!

    1. Hi Greg, I’ve been using the Inform System Builder too and has helped me narrow down my angles. Time will tell but had a success today.

      1. Hi Ken, I think it’s a good bit of kit I’m hoping Ian adds a few more features like the ability and form columns, I’m sure we would be able to come up with a few decent systems using them. My problem is time, when the winter period is over I hope to be able to produce some more, only have 2 at the moment both on the AW.

        Good Luck with anything you back today.

        Greg

  13. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT +3.94

    No bets.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT+28.58

    1pt win 3.35 Ayr – Zalvados

    Will settle to 10am prices

  14. My only tip so far was a non-runner so I’m yet to get off the mark.

    Two for 6th Feb
    3.15 Ludlow – Deauville Dancer
    3.25 Kempton – Villette

  15. today’s selections (please note staking)
    Ludlow.
    2-45. Burn Baby Byrne 1/2 pt ew
    3-15. Western Miller 13-2 1 pt ew
    4-20. Sentimentaljourney 66-1 1/4 pt ew
    Ayr.
    4-10. So Satisfied 16-1 1/2 pt ew

  16. Deise Bless – 4.40 Ayr 11/1
    Trainer 1/1 at the track, 2/2 in bumpers last 90 days, 1/1 with the jockey in bumpers and sending only this one in 300+ mile journey to race

  17. Normally I wouldn`t venture out on a Wednesday and I may end up regretting it, but, two horses have stirred my interest in a race worth a bit of prize money at Ludlow of all places.
    Nick I apologise in advance.
    15:15 Ludlow
    HENRYVILLE 8/1 gen 1pt win
    Well, trainer and jockey are in form, they have bought a couple of horses from other stables, (this fella is from Harry Fry), they do really well by “pinching” these kind of horses, finding out exactly what level they should be at and using them to bets effect. Lord Napier on Saturday at Sandown was a classic example, previously trained by John Ryan on the flat, Peter bought the horse and since it has gone over the winter route has won 4 out of it`s last 10 races. Value at 8/1.
    WESTERN MILLER 15/2 1pt win
    This one has come down the weights and if he is going to win, today would have to be it, he has got speed, so, just so long as he jumps ok his speed between the fences should see him home. JJ Burke gets the leg up after his third at Sandown and on this more taxing / sharper course, it should make him think a bit more, which will suit his style of running. (Ludlow suits front runners, so, he should hopefully get a good lead and burn them all off).

    As usual hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound, good luck with whatever you pick today.

  18. Agree with Ken a separate page for the comp would be good – make the comp tips and running totals easy to see, and work out who’s in it …..

  19. Hi all, here is my three TIPs for today.

    All at LUDLOW

    13:40 DORKING BOY @ 3.25
    14:45 BONZA GIRL @ 7.0
    15:45 LADY CYLLA @ 7.0

    G.L.

    Solent

  20. Ayr card has plemty of in- form Trainer/Jockey combos. I like 10/1 and under.
    These are my tips for today. Up 3.12 points to BFSP so far.
    1.30 MAGIC OF MILAN
    3.05 PETERS COUSIN
    3.35 ZALVADOS.

  21. You have to laugh at bookies and their prices. 20.15 wolves. Come on Dave, backed from 14s into 13/2 overnight. Back out to 20s now. Hmmm.

  22. New / old man on the block here. I’ve just caught up with the Members Posts/Spats of the last week. Going back to cleaning my oven (more fun).
    Chubby728

  23. My system bets today 🙂 :
    1.40 Ludlow 9 Smarty Wild OBrien, T J Hobbs, P J 14/1
    2.20 Kempton 5 Tavus (IRE) McNamara, Adam Charlton, R 6/1 2.55 Kempton 5 Chantresse (IRE) Probert, David Usher, M D I 6/1
    4.50 Ludlow 7 Golden Sovereign (IRE) Nolan, m Hobbs, P J 26/1

    gl/gb 🙂

      1. Well done, 20/1 SP, what odds was he on the machine??? I’m liking that focuses list haha. Superb picking (didn’t have a penny on mind, but hopefully someone may have!)

        1. totally all refined all systems now to over 30% win min. 🙂
          bfsp 40.00 .. does that make me top of the leaderboard ..lol 🙂
          gl/gb

  24. COLINS BETS

    No bet

    ELITE BETS
    Kempton
    2.55 Magic Mirror BOG 5/2
    Wolverhampton
    6.15 Tommy Docc BOG 7/2
    6.45 Sha La La La Lee BOG 11/4
    6.45 Critical Thinking BOG 12/1
    7.15 Jeremy’s Jet BOG 8/1
    Colin

      1. Yep, Mike isn’t tracking the ‘best of’ tips I don’t think – and i’m as useless as ever on that front – albeit did look at her, and Western Miller who was also tipped at Sandown. I couldn’t excuse that poor run at Donny – I mean it was woeful and I don’t think it was just a question of being taken off her feet – she is more jumps bred and it will click at some point, maybe when stepped up in trip – I wasn’t sure this track/trip would suit her – there just wasn’t enough there for me today, albeit I wouldn’t fall off my seat if she bounced back. Her stablemate re-opposes again with a penalty, Nicholls has a fancied one and given that profile, the price is probably significant. Maybe she’ll be one for handicaps, time will tell.

        1. Yeah I agree, difficult to ignore the tjc , but think they think a lot of dorking boy and maybe Johnson felt inclined to ride this one too.

          1. Oh he rode her LTO and was only horse in race he’d have had a choice over, so maybe nothing in the booking. Tommy rides the other one and has done for a few starts and given penalty and his claim, was always going to ride her.

  25. Thought long and hard about this which is rare for me!!!
    At the age of 64 i will listen and take on board constructive advice for in racing you are not to old to learn.
    Late 90s had my own tipping business charging £49.99 per month.
    Optimum racing took me on board has Elite Form(Fine Form Clive Holt) cannot remember what Andrew charged for my service, started putting up golf bets so with Optimum and RTP have my bets proved.
    Have challenged Chubnut many times over the past 12/14 months to prove himself with obviously his superior knowledge of the horses to put up his bets for 6 months so all of us can benefit from this knowledge and make some cash to build up my depleted BANK, surprise surprise nothing.

    Over this period of time he has attempted to put me down over recording bets does not have time and also the bank, however the lure of £50 competition suddenly saw movement and he put up a couple of bets so now doubt he would find time to record them.
    Sitting up in his ivory tower do not for the life of me understand what kick he gets out of his insults and along with his arrogance to other members on RTP, so one final time put your bets up for 6 months or shut up, for he did not have the good grace or manners to respond to John says it all.

    Like many on here myself included are passing their knowledge and advice for Free, please take this on board for said earlier will take advice from anyone.
    Colin

    1. At this time of year it’s easy to be tempted out of your comfort zone but I know my ability to back exposed horses on Betfair profitably is very sketchy to say the least. I’ve got a lot of micro systems that I’ve put together over the years for both exposed and unexposed horses, but tend to find that the edge they offer gets blunted very quickly, particularly if the angles are mentioned in the media or on a site such as GG’s.

      We are living in the information age and things seem to pass almost as quickly as they appear on the horizon. No one gets time to become an expert in much anything anymore cos you have to keep re-inventing your action just to stay ahead of the game. Any one telling you different either has a crystal ball on their desk or is full of BS.

      Just my 2 cents talking.

    2. Colin, Chubnut is no more than a WUM (wind up merchant). Every website has one. Just ignore him & he will eventually go away. The worst thing you can do is react to him as that is all he is after. It makes him feel important!

      1. Blimey, i am out all afternoon and all hell lets loose. First open up Account to find the 2 brilliant winners big priced Winners, and then see that there has been more comments re my (much too) long post. As has been said its up to the WUM whether he chooses to reply – as i said in it, life is all about choice. Grateful for comments nevertheless. 🙂

  26. Yesterday lost. Running total, bets 5, won 1, +7.45.

    Kempton 3.25 Red Force One

    Trainer change to Paul Nicholls running on the AW, unusual. Megan has a good strike rate for him.

  27. Feb tipping

    1.50 Kempton – Sir Ox

    4.20 Kempton – Casa Comigo

    6.45 Wolverhampton – Sha La Lee

    Good Luck

    1. Like shelling peas between us today mc .. well done goes well with my 40/1 winner starting off proceedings 🙂

      lets hope we get some more in for some trebles and the goliath 🙂
      lol .. i can but dream 🙂
      gl/gb 🙂

        1. YEAH .. i think your nugget of info was very good .. they are still working out to best ride the horse .. i felt he was staying on again at the finish ???? on we go again indeed 🙂
          gl/gb

  28. TIP
    AYR
    1.30 fairlee grace
    3.05 gold runner
    4.10 veauce de sivola
    LUDLOW
    4.50 point of departure
    Kempton
    3.25 jodies jem

  29. Dipping my toe back in nh racing again,Henryville 3.15 at Ludlow,tend to agree with Stewarts assessment.Bowen is a very shrewd operator,taken on an 11 yr old he must see something of merit in this fellow.

  30. Deise Bless – 4.40 Ayr 11/1
    Trainer 1/1 at the track, 2/2 in bumpers last 90 days, 1/1 with the jockey in bumpers and sending only this one in 300+ mile journey to race

  31. REPEAT OF YESTERDAYS COMMENT; Not sure if you saw it CHUBNUT, or chose to ignore it. I can take fair criticism but this puts the record straight and asks you some Questions; (his original comment is on yesterdays too)

    Response to Chubnut (invitation to Josh and others to comment too) A long post because it needs to be.
    Chubnut – i recognise that you seem to be attempting to protect newbies somehow, myself included, and whilst that may be laudable i think you are a mixture of way off the mark, makes assumptions and are opinionated, and quite patronising. The issue that really none of those help folk!

    You talk about my ‘profile’ – what do you mean? the comments i have shared or what else. If you are tarring all newbies with the same brush then you are making assumptions about people who by their nature will differ a great deal. I may be new on here BUT have a long time interest, decades in fact. But another newbie may have little or even no any experience of Betting.

    ‘Following my whim for a month’ Nonesense. Its 2 months now and i ONLY followed those of Josh s that were profitable and also Nick’s and Colins (the bets ones) again both profitable. I allocated a Bank to each and a sensible stake (again in line with Joshs table on loser levels and multiplied that by 2 or 3 as he suggested. I have at least twice admitted that i used too many, and that 3 or 4 probably better and have registered that with Josh. Had they ALL carried on being profitable over this crappy January then i would have made more than i have lost. If you can explain how my approach has been ‘irresponsible’ i would love to hear it. Life is all about making decisions – yes hindsight is wonderful, and as it turned out my decision was not ‘bad’ per se,
    it was simply unfortunate. With a stack of Winners it would not have been, good, simply fortunate.

    Why i joined. When i became aware of RtoP i questioned Josh a fair bit in emails and as an analytical person i think both he and i realised that i asked more Q s than most It was clear that there are a range of people on here from those who might want to spend just 10 or 15 minutes a day, and others who do much more including spending hours a day at it. I fall somewhere nearer the first, BUT the important thing for me was that Josh explained the Site catered for both, so in i came. On the basis that at present i can invariably get on at, or very near to, the price suggested by Josh or the others i follow what on earth is all this nonesense about ‘taking my wife out on Sunday afternoon’ (her Birthday) Had Josh said i would need to spend hours on end every day i would not have joined! Simple decision. For the record i CHOOSE to do other things including a major project from home which as i get older is very important to me and i will be on that for at least 9 to 12 months. I wouldn’t dream of sharing what it is with you because i m sure you would have an opinion on it!

    As i said at the start you seem to be well meaning about ‘new people’ but i think you are going about things the wrong way! (woops now i am being opinionated) So a few things to finish with.

    BANKS – you clearly have a bee in the bonnet on this one. SO if they are completely out of the window how do YOU manage your ,money and stakes then? I was thinking that the spectrum on this starts with at one extreme ‘Mr Dafty’ who joins the service is clueless and with no consideration on how much money he can afford to lose so he chucks a fiver or a tenner at every selection every day and at the end of a month, if that long, he has likely started spending the Gas/Electric/Food money. Other end of spectrum is Mr Moneybags – who has had a lottery win or large inheritance and in his words ‘just doesnt need to mange available money to bet with. Hopefully most, likely all, of us are in the middle. So whet to you do then? i m sure we would all love to know!

    Also where you say ‘i cant see any change in your betting until you change’ can you please explain that patronising comment in simple terms – against the FULL BACKGROUND I HAVE EXPLAINED ABOVE.

    Finally, and i accept i may have missed the odd comment, can you please share a little of your methodology/betting approaches which might help. I am not asking for ‘big secrets’ just something that might help all of us rather than folk on here think, as i maybe am beginning to, that you like commenting on anything but that.

    Thanks anyone who has read this far, all the best John

    1. You seem to be rising to Chubnut’s bait. He is more a philosopher on the art of punting than a tipster/form student. That is OK as long as it is appropriate. Most people have different methodologies, some simple and some over complicated. You punt for two main reasons – for fun and to try and make money.
      This site is a good place to learn. As J P McManus once said, I learn more by listening (reading) than talking (writing).

      1. Fair point Martin – but i rose to the bait because i think he was well out of order. I’ m generally pretty easy going but my long career in ‘People fields’ taught me to take criticism when well founded, but stand up for yourself when not. To be fair i hope he comes back, not for any kind of fall out, but mainly to try and understand his points better and also to see what he has to say generally about this great sport. Appreciate your comment! all the best John.

  32. Just one at Kempton this afternoon….

    4.00 Kyllachy Dragon…. 7.0 (Currently 6.6 on B/f).

    Back at 4.45 with the Wolves update.

  33. Normally I wouldn`t venture out on a Wednesday and I may end up regretting it, but, two horses have stirred my interest in a race worth a bit of prize money at Ludlow of all places.
    Nick I apologise in advance.
    15:15 Ludlow
    HENRYVILLE 8/1 gen 1pt win
    Well, trainer and jockey are in form, they have bought a couple of horses from other stables, (this fella is from Harry Fry), they do really well by “pinching” these kind of horses, finding out exactly what level they should be at and using them to bets effect. Lord Napier on Saturday at Sandown was a classic example, previously trained by John Ryan on the flat, Peter bought the horse and since it has gone over the winter route has won 4 out of it`s last 10 races. Value at 8/1.
    WESTERN MILLER 15/2 1pt win
    This one has come down the weights and if he is going to win, today would have to be it, he has got speed, so, just so long as he jumps ok his speed between the fences should see him home. JJ Burke gets the leg up after his third at Sandown and on this more taxing / sharper course, it should make him think a bit more, which will suit his style of running. (Ludlow suits front runners, so, he should hopefully get a good lead and burn them all off).

    As usual hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound, good luck with whatever you pick today.

  34. Agree with Ken a separate page for the comp would be good – make the comp tips and running totals easy to see, and work out who’s in it …..

  35. Hi all, here is my three TIPs for today.

    All at LUDLOW

    13:40 DORKING BOY @ 3.25
    14:45 BONZA GIRL @ 7.0
    15:45 LADY CYLLA @ 7.0

    G.L.

    Solent

  36. Ayr card has plemty of in- form Trainer/Jockey combos. I like 10/1 and under.
    These are my tips for today. Up 3.12 points to BFSP so far.
    1.30 MAGIC OF MILAN
    3.05 PETERS COUSIN
    3.35 ZALVADOS.

  37. You have to laugh at bookies and their prices. 20.15 wolves. Come on Dave, backed from 14s into 13/2 overnight. Back out to 20s now. Hmmm.

  38. New / old man on the block here. I’ve just caught up with the Members Posts/Spats of the last week. Going back to cleaning my oven (more fun).
    Chubby728

  39. My system bets today 🙂 :
    1.40 Ludlow 9 Smarty Wild OBrien, T J Hobbs, P J 14/1
    2.20 Kempton 5 Tavus (IRE) McNamara, Adam Charlton, R 6/1 2.55 Kempton 5 Chantresse (IRE) Probert, David Usher, M D I 6/1
    4.50 Ludlow 7 Golden Sovereign (IRE) Nolan, m Hobbs, P J 26/1

    gl/gb 🙂

      1. Well done, 20/1 SP, what odds was he on the machine??? I’m liking that focuses list haha. Superb picking (didn’t have a penny on mind, but hopefully someone may have!)

        1. totally all refined all systems now to over 30% win min. 🙂
          bfsp 40.00 .. does that make me top of the leaderboard ..lol 🙂
          gl/gb

  40. Today is proving the fact that when you’re on a bad run you have to keep your discipline and plough on becouse the recovery could just be around the corner, hope that everyone is enjoying today’s procedures even Chubster

    1. Well as if by magic in pointing towards Nick, S1, S3A# , we have 8/1 from Nick, and 14.4 from S1. Lifts the mood somewhat.

  41. COLINS BETS

    No bet

    ELITE BETS
    Kempton
    2.55 Magic Mirror BOG 5/2
    Wolverhampton
    6.15 Tommy Docc BOG 7/2
    6.45 Sha La La La Lee BOG 11/4
    6.45 Critical Thinking BOG 12/1
    7.15 Jeremy’s Jet BOG 8/1
    Colin

      1. Yep, Mike isn’t tracking the ‘best of’ tips I don’t think – and i’m as useless as ever on that front – albeit did look at her, and Western Miller who was also tipped at Sandown. I couldn’t excuse that poor run at Donny – I mean it was woeful and I don’t think it was just a question of being taken off her feet – she is more jumps bred and it will click at some point, maybe when stepped up in trip – I wasn’t sure this track/trip would suit her – there just wasn’t enough there for me today, albeit I wouldn’t fall off my seat if she bounced back. Her stablemate re-opposes again with a penalty, Nicholls has a fancied one and given that profile, the price is probably significant. Maybe she’ll be one for handicaps, time will tell.

        1. Yeah I agree, difficult to ignore the tjc , but think they think a lot of dorking boy and maybe Johnson felt inclined to ride this one too.

          1. Oh he rode her LTO and was only horse in race he’d have had a choice over, so maybe nothing in the booking. Tommy rides the other one and has done for a few starts and given penalty and his claim, was always going to ride her.

  42. Thought long and hard about this which is rare for me!!!
    At the age of 64 i will listen and take on board constructive advice for in racing you are not to old to learn.
    Late 90s had my own tipping business charging £49.99 per month.
    Optimum racing took me on board has Elite Form(Fine Form Clive Holt) cannot remember what Andrew charged for my service, started putting up golf bets so with Optimum and RTP have my bets proved.
    Have challenged Chubnut many times over the past 12/14 months to prove himself with obviously his superior knowledge of the horses to put up his bets for 6 months so all of us can benefit from this knowledge and make some cash to build up my depleted BANK, surprise surprise nothing.

    Over this period of time he has attempted to put me down over recording bets does not have time and also the bank, however the lure of £50 competition suddenly saw movement and he put up a couple of bets so now doubt he would find time to record them.
    Sitting up in his ivory tower do not for the life of me understand what kick he gets out of his insults and along with his arrogance to other members on RTP, so one final time put your bets up for 6 months or shut up, for he did not have the good grace or manners to respond to John says it all.

    Like many on here myself included are passing their knowledge and advice for Free, please take this on board for said earlier will take advice from anyone.
    Colin

    1. Blimey, you all need to relax a bit! 🙂
      He is allowed a general opinion on all things betting without having to tip/prove himself in that regard.
      The issue of banks has been well versed and is somewhat tiresome now, repeating old ground. Chubnut’s opinions on various matters are well known, you absorb, agree, disagree, move on.

      Clearly if someone thinks they are having a personal dig said participants can discuss in a friendly manner as above.
      His general comments have been positive for discussion, in the sense that they make us think, and challenge any prejudices or ideas we may have. This game is a broad church when it comes to opinions on all matters.

      And for today at least, bar John’s questions above to Chubnut above and whether he replies constructively, that is matter closed. 🙂 End.
      Josh

    2. At this time of year it’s easy to be tempted out of your comfort zone but I know my ability to back exposed horses on Betfair profitably is very sketchy to say the least. I’ve got a lot of micro systems that I’ve put together over the years for both exposed and unexposed horses, but tend to find that the edge they offer gets blunted very quickly, particularly if the angles are mentioned in the media or on a site such as GG’s.

      We are living in the information age and things seem to pass almost as quickly as they appear on the horizon. No one gets time to become an expert in much anything anymore cos you have to keep re-inventing your action just to stay ahead of the game. Any one telling you different either has a crystal ball on their desk or is full of BS.

      Just my 2 cents talking.

    3. Colin, Chubnut is no more than a WUM (wind up merchant). Every website has one. Just ignore him & he will eventually go away. The worst thing you can do is react to him as that is all he is after. It makes him feel important!

      1. Blimey, i am out all afternoon and all hell lets loose. First open up Account to find the 2 brilliant winners big priced Winners, and then see that there has been more comments re my (much too) long post. As has been said its up to the WUM whether he chooses to reply – as i said in it, life is all about choice. Grateful for comments nevertheless. 🙂

  43. Yesterday lost. Running total, bets 5, won 1, +7.45.

    Kempton 3.25 Red Force One

    Trainer change to Paul Nicholls running on the AW, unusual. Megan has a good strike rate for him.

  44. Feb tipping

    1.50 Kempton – Sir Ox

    4.20 Kempton – Casa Comigo

    6.45 Wolverhampton – Sha La Lee

    Good Luck

    1. Like shelling peas between us today mc .. well done goes well with my 40/1 winner starting off proceedings 🙂

      lets hope we get some more in for some trebles and the goliath 🙂
      lol .. i can but dream 🙂
      gl/gb 🙂

        1. YEAH .. i think your nugget of info was very good .. they are still working out to best ride the horse .. i felt he was staying on again at the finish ???? on we go again indeed 🙂
          gl/gb

  45. TIP
    AYR
    1.30 fairlee grace
    3.05 gold runner
    4.10 veauce de sivola
    LUDLOW
    4.50 point of departure
    Kempton
    3.25 jodies jem

  46. Dipping my toe back in nh racing again,Henryville 3.15 at Ludlow,tend to agree with Stewarts assessment.Bowen is a very shrewd operator,taken on an 11 yr old he must see something of merit in this fellow.

  47. Today is proving the fact that when you’re on a bad run you have to keep your discipline and plough on becouse the recovery could just be around the corner, hope that everyone is enjoying today’s procedures even Chubster

    1. Well as if by magic in pointing towards Nick, S1, S3A# , we have 8/1 from Nick, and 14.4 from S1. Lifts the mood somewhat.

  48. Great tip today nick one thing I would suggest to all subscribers is to do a form analysis on nicks tips they are so good you can gain extra confidence for your own betting seeing how he works. Many thanks top work

  49. REPEAT OF YESTERDAYS COMMENT; Not sure if you saw it CHUBNUT, or chose to ignore it. I can take fair criticism but this puts the record straight and asks you some Questions; (his original comment is on yesterdays too)

    Response to Chubnut (invitation to Josh and others to comment too) A long post because it needs to be.
    Chubnut – i recognise that you seem to be attempting to protect newbies somehow, myself included, and whilst that may be laudable i think you are a mixture of way off the mark, makes assumptions and are opinionated, and quite patronising. The issue that really none of those help folk!

    You talk about my ‘profile’ – what do you mean? the comments i have shared or what else. If you are tarring all newbies with the same brush then you are making assumptions about people who by their nature will differ a great deal. I may be new on here BUT have a long time interest, decades in fact. But another newbie may have little or even no any experience of Betting.

    ‘Following my whim for a month’ Nonesense. Its 2 months now and i ONLY followed those of Josh s that were profitable and also Nick’s and Colins (the bets ones) again both profitable. I allocated a Bank to each and a sensible stake (again in line with Joshs table on loser levels and multiplied that by 2 or 3 as he suggested. I have at least twice admitted that i used too many, and that 3 or 4 probably better and have registered that with Josh. Had they ALL carried on being profitable over this crappy January then i would have made more than i have lost. If you can explain how my approach has been ‘irresponsible’ i would love to hear it. Life is all about making decisions – yes hindsight is wonderful, and as it turned out my decision was not ‘bad’ per se,
    it was simply unfortunate. With a stack of Winners it would not have been, good, simply fortunate.

    Why i joined. When i became aware of RtoP i questioned Josh a fair bit in emails and as an analytical person i think both he and i realised that i asked more Q s than most It was clear that there are a range of people on here from those who might want to spend just 10 or 15 minutes a day, and others who do much more including spending hours a day at it. I fall somewhere nearer the first, BUT the important thing for me was that Josh explained the Site catered for both, so in i came. On the basis that at present i can invariably get on at, or very near to, the price suggested by Josh or the others i follow what on earth is all this nonesense about ‘taking my wife out on Sunday afternoon’ (her Birthday) Had Josh said i would need to spend hours on end every day i would not have joined! Simple decision. For the record i CHOOSE to do other things including a major project from home which as i get older is very important to me and i will be on that for at least 9 to 12 months. I wouldn’t dream of sharing what it is with you because i m sure you would have an opinion on it!

    As i said at the start you seem to be well meaning about ‘new people’ but i think you are going about things the wrong way! (woops now i am being opinionated) So a few things to finish with.

    BANKS – you clearly have a bee in the bonnet on this one. SO if they are completely out of the window how do YOU manage your ,money and stakes then? I was thinking that the spectrum on this starts with at one extreme ‘Mr Dafty’ who joins the service is clueless and with no consideration on how much money he can afford to lose so he chucks a fiver or a tenner at every selection every day and at the end of a month, if that long, he has likely started spending the Gas/Electric/Food money. Other end of spectrum is Mr Moneybags – who has had a lottery win or large inheritance and in his words ‘just doesnt need to mange available money to bet with. Hopefully most, likely all, of us are in the middle. So whet to you do then? i m sure we would all love to know!

    Also where you say ‘i cant see any change in your betting until you change’ can you please explain that patronising comment in simple terms – against the FULL BACKGROUND I HAVE EXPLAINED ABOVE.

    Finally, and i accept i may have missed the odd comment, can you please share a little of your methodology/betting approaches which might help. I am not asking for ‘big secrets’ just something that might help all of us rather than folk on here think, as i maybe am beginning to, that you like commenting on anything but that.

    Thanks anyone who has read this far, all the best John

    1. You seem to be rising to Chubnut’s bait. He is more a philosopher on the art of punting than a tipster/form student. That is OK as long as it is appropriate. Most people have different methodologies, some simple and some over complicated. You punt for two main reasons – for fun and to try and make money.
      This site is a good place to learn. As J P McManus once said, I learn more by listening (reading) than talking (writing).

      1. Fair point Martin – but i rose to the bait because i think he was well out of order. I’ m generally pretty easy going but my long career in ‘People fields’ taught me to take criticism when well founded, but stand up for yourself when not. To be fair i hope he comes back, not for any kind of fall out, but mainly to try and understand his points better and also to see what he has to say generally about this great sport. Appreciate your comment! all the best John.

  50. Great tip today nick one thing I would suggest to all subscribers is to do a form analysis on nicks tips they are so good you can gain extra confidence for your own betting seeing how he works. Many thanks top work

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