Members Daily Post: 05/02/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Market Rasen

2.20 – Quantum of Solace  (micro class) H3 I1 G3 6/4 S4 2nd 

3.25 –

Seemingly So  (HcH)  w2 H3 I3 G3 9/2 S4 UP

Bucaneros   (HcH) 12/1 S2 UP

Timoteo   (m dist) 12/1 S2 UP

4.00 – Follow The Swallow  (HcCh, m dist) 14,30  H3 9/2 UP

4.30 – Corinto   (HcH) 15/2 WON 15/2>6/1 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -8.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/9,2p, -1)

Daily Tips

3.25 MR – Megalodon – 1 point win – 13/2 (bet365/WH/BV) 6/1 (the rest) UP 16/1, sigh, market told the story there and in truth he didn’t run very well at all, very disappointing. A run to sum up my own daily form really. Highlighted the winner below, who did make 9/2 look good, and Nick’s ran a cracker, bumping into one. I got him wrong. 

that’s all for tips today, 09.03, write up…

I’m convinced this one is going to make a mark of 112 look very lenient at some point and clearly i’m hoping it’s today! It could well be on his next few starts, or when he goes over fences and maybe up in trip again, but he’s got better with each run to my eyes. The trainer is hitting some form, 1/7,2p in the last 14 days and plenty have been running well (esp those at single figure odds) in recent weeks. He’s also 1/7, 4p with handicap debutants in the last 2 years and he does well enough with his fancied handicap hurdlers. I clearly think this one could be a couple of points too big and i hope he’s nibbled at as the market may guide. In recent years, in C4/5 handicap hurdles (inc novice), with those sent off 5/1< he’s 12/49, 32 places… 6/18,10p with those that have 0-7 runs in handicap hurdles. He’s only had 8 runners at the track in the last 5 years, 2 have won, and Paddy is one of his go-to jockeys along with Tom O’Brien and occasionally Nick Schofield. Paddy rides the track well.

The horse… he placed in a couple of points, has stamina all over his pedigree, and runs as if he should relish this step up in trip. For me he has the best novice/maiden hurdle form in this race – that run 3 starts ago was a very deep C3 maiden hurdle where he ran ok, but was never under the pump. He was outclassed and outpaced and was being brought along slowly. He came 15th there. The winner is rated 138, the 3rd 136. The 4th went close in a C3, the 5th was rated 130 going into the race. The 6th has won since. The 8th has won since, hacking up. The 10th has won since, rated 126. The selection was 6L behind him. The 13th has hacked up since – and is now rated 126. The selection was 1/2 a length behind him. Last time out he got outpaced at Lingfield before then staying on and cutting through the rest – he bumped into Emitom there who’s very well regarded and now has a mark of 134. He was upsides him at the last, before he then eased to victory. The run in between wasn’t too bad either- they made plenty of use of him there, and he travelled well for a long time, again before getting outpaced, and he could have been nowhere near fit enough also.

From all that evidence I’m pretty sure he’s very well handicapped off 112, it will just be a case of when he shows it. This move up in trip should unlock more, he’s generally jumped/travelled well, and just looks interesting in here, and worth a go at 13/2 to my creaking eyes.

The dangers… well I wouldn’t put anyone off a nibble on Earl of The Cotswolds but I wasn’t convinced he looked overpriced- especially given there is a stamina niggle now. Maybe he was just outclassed LTO, or they made too much use of him too early, but he did run as if he didn’t get home at Wincanton. It was over 1f further so this slight drop will help, but i thought that IF mine was here to run his race, and ran it, he would out-stay him. But, he does tick plenty of boxes and if he was 13/2+, I may have had some pondering to do. He may well make 9/2 look big come 3.30. (There is an extra 120 yards to the distance here, so it’s a similar trip to LTO, which i’m not sure is a positive for him but should be for mine) Those two looked most interesting to my eyes and I was happy to take on the rest for one reason or another. Nick and I have different views on the merits of Crystal Lad’s last run, but he’s right plenty more than I am, so maybe I have him wrong, which is possible. 🙂

Megladon could bolt up here, but if he doesn’t he’ll be in the tracker, and i’ll try and land on him when he does win well, which I’m convinced he’s going to do at some stage. All he’s missing for complete confidence is a career win somewhere already, but i’ve judged that his price just allows the play on that front. He responded well for pressure LTO at least, and comes here in form, on the back of his best run to date, in terms of distance beaten.

 

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/152,68p, +2.8, 1 point win)

None.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.20 MR – Quantum of Solace 6/4 2nd

4.00 MR – Conas Toi 9/1 2nd

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

4.00 MR – Johnny Yuma 13/2 UP

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NEW! Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

3.25 MR – Earlofthecotswolds 5/1 WON 5/1>9/4 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NEWx1 Tipping Competition Update.. (inc ‘the forum’) 

Firstly, I’ve tidied up The Key a bit, and moved it to a new link which is above, so that’s where all the ‘Key’ content will live. At the bottom of that post you can find ‘the rules’ for the monthly competition.

I have added in a rule that if possible, any tips should be up at least 1 hour before the race starts. In time, especially for those who may not have posted before, you’re going to build up a record, and I fully expect some stars to be unearthed, and as such that does make it more likely that others may follow your tips in time, for example. Hopefully that’s not too much of a burden, but again, that’s a trust thing and i’m not going to be trawling through to check 🙂

As discussed when ‘launching’ the idea, it relies entirely on trust in terms of your posts,and accurately keeping track of your own results. As it’s based on ROI, clearly number of tips / winners / and P/L to BFSP 1 point win is all that’s required. EG a BFSP of 8.00 would be +7 points. I’d keep results to advised prices also.

NEWx2 Where to post the Tips…

This is trial and error… but I have brought back to life the ‘forum’ function which I’ve always had in the background but never used. After some earlier technical problems it looks to be working now. My technical support and Nick have both posted test comments.

When logged in, on desktop/tablet (it won’t show on mobile I don’t think… I need to build an App), you should see the link to the left hand side.

You can find this month’s thread HERE>>>

(update: there appears to be some gremlins still, some can post in Forum above, many can not. A bug I need to fix, so if you can’t post in the Forum, then obviously continue in the comments below) 

All that matters is that there’s a record on this blog somewhere, in the daily comments or on that Forum.

I need to be careful not to disrupt the ‘feel’ of the comments, but on very busy days (Saturday was a bit mad) it should help.

So, IF you are posting solely for the competition tips, especially if no write ups, then do use the forum HERE>>>

At this stage i’m not going to be draconian and say that competition tips have to be posted in there to be counted, but it should help ease the burden on the daily comments feature. If it’s easy to use, and makes sense, maybe i will specify that, in time. It may be easier for all to know that this is where competition tips live.

 

As always any thoughts welcome, but if you have any competition tips, do head to the forum and we shall see how it works for the rest of the month.

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Results Update: Part 1

Spreadsheet: HERE>>>

On Tuesday will update the various links in the Key, some of which were last done for end November.

Summary…

The Strategies…

Well the two stalwarts continued to tick along…

S1 : 2/14,5p, +11, +9.5 BFSP

S3A#: 2/4,2p, +5.25

 

The others…gulp…

S2A

1 point win: 1/31,3p, -11, -11.7 BFSP

1 point EW: 1/31,3p, -18.8

½ point EW: 1/31,3p, -9.4

 

W1: 2/25,5p, -20.9

 

There’s nothing concerning with S2A at this stage really, that’s par for the course with that approach and is very much about landing on the biggies while ticking along with some places.

W1… that’s of more deeper concern and hasn’t kicked on as I anticipated. At the end of 2018 it was on 46/176, 66p, +33. It’s now on 58/254, 95p, +13.37 since inception. It’s -37 since the start of Nov which isn’t very good. The place SR of 37% for Dec/Jan was the same as the historical average, but it’s been poor, and is hard to be over confident with that just at the moment, and maybe it’s a case that it’s relied to heavily on the odd big priced winner or for some reason it just worked better over the summer. I fear I may have been too premature with one. Time will tell.

S3A... in better news… ALL ES+ qualifiers (AKA S3A, also includes S3A#) have come back to life in recent months. In 2018 up to end of Sept they were on +28 or so. From Oct 1st to end Jan… +55 points.

That puts their total from Jan 1st 2018 to end Jan 2019 to… 61/278, 95p, +83.51 points to morning prices (no doubt better to evening odds) . So they are solid and that 21% win SR is good enough against the historically researched 25% for the angles as per the TTP report/the rules for ES+. Those results are probably more important as to give confidence to…

S3A# (remember that’s ES+ qualifiers , plus 2 or 3 red symbols/ratings pointers) is included in those results, but those above give even more confidence for that angle moving forward. In the same period S3A# is 45/141, 66p, +69 points.  Without doubt that’s the most solid strategy angle on these pages I think, especially given the high win SR and the logic behind it. It does just keep ticking along and will hopefully continue to do so,.

I’ll update all the links in the Key on Tuesday and bring everything up to date.

As i’ve repeated before, if you just want two strategies to follow, S1 and S3A# are the two and with any luck they will continue to bring in 100+ points a year over the jumps.

My Tipping

Well I don’t want to dwell on that too long but will do so in a separate post. But it’s been my worst month of all time I think, and is hopefully the lowest point in what has been a mediocre few months in truth. It’s not for the lack of effort or knowledge, but something isn’t clicking, especially in the analytical application.

The ‘best of the stats’ tips were… 0/32, 11 places I think, -32, for the month. Awful and they are still on a poor run. It will turn, and the historical place SR is still around 45%. Only action and results will suffice so there’s no point in me looking back too much.

The free + big race tips are -3 for the month. Other daily tips -7.4.

It will get a bit depressing if I dwell on that too much longer, and clearly it hasn’t been much fun on that front. And for quite some time which is a concern. I can only promise to work harder and focus on improving. I could do with a March/April like last year and hopefully one of my infamous golden spells isn’t too far away. Cyrname and Wakanda indicated I haven’t totally forgotten how to analyse a race but i’ve always struggled for consistency and will continue to work at it.

It could be that I go back to putting all my efforts into big races/festivals, as bar that +110 point spell in Oct/Nov 2017, my efforts on the daily tipping front have been woeful. And with that, i’m off to the pub to watch the Reds. The pressure is on!

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

135 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • The forum isn’t working for me Josh. Using chrome on a desktop, just says I need to be logged in to view. Tried logging in/out, turned off AdBlocker ( the usual culprit), not sure why nothing happens.

    chris 12/08/19 7:03 AM Reply


  • Feb tip comp
    16:10 Newcastle – Good man
    17:45 Newcastle – Eternal Sun

    chris 12/08/19 7:03 AM Reply


  • Systems selection – Karl Burke at Newcastle – 6.45 Fflur, 1 point each way at 10/1 BOG.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 12/08/19 7:03 AM Reply


  • Crystal Lad Market Rasen 15:25 1pt e/w-16/1-I am not a fan of the front of the market here and this one looks way too big. He went chasing last season and it didn’t work out (although he wasn’t disgraced at class 3 and class 4 level) but before that he was a very promising horse. He was never put into the race LTO and the ground was too fast the time before however on his previous hurdle run he was 5L in the Grade 3 novice hurdle final and which is regularly one of the hottest races in the spring and most of the horses in that are rated 130-140+. That was off 129 and he gets to race off 10lbs lower. Trainer and jockey don’t visit here very often but are 1/3, 3p in the past 2 years. I expect Jamie to race him prominently and he should go very close.
    Eternal Sun Newcastle 17:45 1pt e/w-7/1-I don’t get why this one isn’t favourite. He is by far and away the most unexposed horse here. He has won at the track and is in form. Taking away his re-appearance he is 113 in his last 3 runs. The form of his last run couldn’t have worked out better. The winner finished 2nd in 2 class 2s. The 2nd won a class 4 NTO and the 4th won a class 3 NTO. He races off the same mark here but actually drops down in class and gets a massive jockey upgrade. Jockey is 2/5, 3p for the trainer in handicaps since the start of 2018 and 1/3, 2p at the track. Trainer has a solid 6/32, 10p +16 record in handicaps at the track in the past 2 years. Should get a nice tow into the race from Bernie’s Boy and I expect another to go very close here.

    nickmazur 11/08/19 8:21 PM Reply


  • Feb Comp Tip – 15.25 Market Rasen Earlofthecotswolds 6/1 – can turn tables with Seemingly So at the weights and with the extra distance in his favour
    R/T W2/L2 +12.04 BFSP

    Jim Barker 12/08/19 4:18 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, commiserations on just how bad it has been. (I did post last couple of days but no doubt u been busy) Just hope that not too many joined on the December recruitment round when i did. S2A, W1 and with unbelievable timing followed the ‘best of jumps stats qualifiers’ right at its peak (+ 34 was it) Add to that Colins bets where he says worst January ever and you get the drift! S1 S3A# and Nicks helped avoid it being worse. I should have paid heed when you advised ‘not too many’ approaches. At least the sensible advice on here Decent Bank for each + low stakes helped but what an awful baptism. Will be tightening up on probably 4 now S1 S3A# and your BRTips when they come plus Nick’s of course. Still pleased to be involved but my record (should have warned you – of me ALWAYS having a losing effect on just about every service i have joined 🙂 . the difference is the others were invariably crap, but this one will be fine over time! ) All the best John

    John Unitt 11/08/19 8:21 PM Reply


    • I read every comment John! 🙂 Didn’t think last one warranted a reply on what I’d said before haha. And didn’t ask me a direct question hence lack of reply so apols. It rest assured everything gets read. Oh there was a good wedge on the winter drive and plenty still around. But yep it hasn’t been great esp of starting with X, y and z and as always timing can be everything. Such is the approach in these parts you could have a 150+ month. Maybe Feb or March! The longer term picture over 2 1/2 years has been fine. But that doesn’t help too much at this moment in time. Nick will win 300+ points this year and S1/S3A# will be 100+ ! 🙂

      Josh 11/08/19 10:35 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh – thats great!

        John Unitt 12/08/19 12:35 AM Reply


    • John, your profile is a well trodden corridor and as I said before you need take responsibility for your own circumstances. Anybody who makes money at this game long term works unbelievably hard with the upmost discipline. Again I’ll repeat, if you think you can just get up in the morning, read a few posts, blindly follow your whim for the month and expect that everything will come up roses, you are going down a dark road.
      Sunday you popped out with your wife for the afternoon, in that time Stewart posted a 20/1 shot that ended up 7s. If you were following him and bet it at 7s that’s 13 pts adrift you are in one bet !! which makes a mockery of having a bank. The Stats are there for guidance and the tips from other members should also be viewed as well informed opinion for you to make your choices.

      BTW: I dont take Mrs Chubnut anywhere during racing hours, she’s cost me far too much in the past. Sorry to be so blunt but I cant see any change in your long term betting until you change.

      chubnut 11/08/19 10:35 PM Reply


      • A touch harsh but the message of selectiveness is correct. I have a system that does that for me that has worked for me but I appreciate that it is much more difficult if you dont. I would stick with Nick and Tim and S1/S3A and then re evaluate after February.

        martin colwell 11/08/19 10:35 PM Reply


      • Response to Chubnut (invitation to Josh and others to comment too) A long post because it needs to be.
        Chubnut – i recognise that you seem to be attempting to protect newbies somehow, myself included, and whilst that may be laudable i think you are a mixture of way off the mark, makes assumptions and are opinionated, and quite patronising. The issue that really none of those help folk!

        You talk about my ‘profile’ – what do you mean? the comments i have shared or what else. If you are tarring all newbies with the same brush then you are making assumptions about people who by their nature will differ a great deal. I may be new on here BUT have a long time interest, decades in fact. But another newbie may have little or even no any experience of Betting.

        ‘Following my whim for a month’ Nonesense. Its 2 months now and i ONLY followed those of Josh s that were profitable and also Nick’s and Colins (the bets ones) again both profitable. I allocated a Bank to each and a sensible stake (again in line with Joshs table on loser levels and multiplied that by 2 or 3 as he suggested. I have at least twice admitted that i used too many, and that 3 or 4 probably better and have registered that with Josh. Had they ALL carried on being profitable over this crappy January then i would have made more than i have lost. If you can explain how my approach has been ‘irresponsible’ i would love to hear it. Life is all about making decisions – yes hindsight is wonderful, and as it turned out my decision was not ‘bad’ per se,
        it was simply unfortunate. With a stack of Winners it would not have been, good, simply fortunate.

        Why i joined. When i became aware of RtoP i questioned Josh a fair bit in emails and as an analytical person i think both he and i realised that i asked more Q s than most 🙂 It was clear that there are a range of people on here from those who might want to spend just 10 or 15 minutes a day, and others who do much more including spending hours a day at it. I fall somewhere nearer the first, BUT the important thing for me was that Josh explained the Site catered for both, so in i came. On the basis that at present i can invariably get on at, or very near to, the price suggested by Josh or the others i follow what on earth is all this nonesense about ‘taking my wife out on Sunday afternoon’ (her Birthday) Had Josh said i would need to spend hours on end every day i would not have joined! Simple decision. For the record i CHOOSE to do other things including a major project from home which as i get older is very important to me and i will be on that for at least 9 to 12 months. I wouldn’t dream of sharing what it is with you because i m sure you would have an opinion on it! 🙂

        As i said at the start you seem to be well meaning about ‘new people’ but i think you are going about things the wrong way! (woops now i am being opinionated) So a few things to finish with.

        BANKS – you clearly have a bee in the bonnet on this one. SO if they are completely out of the window how do YOU manage your ,money and stakes then? I was thinking that the spectrum on this starts with at one extreme ‘Mr Dafty’ who joins the service is clueless and with no consideration on how much money he can afford to lose so he chucks a fiver or a tenner at every selection every day and at the end of a month, if that long, he has likely started spending the Gas/Electric/Food money. Other end of spectrum is Mr Moneybags – who has had a lottery win or large inheritance and in his words ‘just doesnt need to mange available money to bet with. Hopefully most, likely all, of us are in the middle. So whet to you do then? i m sure we would all love to know!

        Also where you say ‘i cant see any change in your betting until you change’ can you please explain that patronising comment in simple terms – against the FULL BACKGROUND I HAVE EXPLAINED ABOVE.

        Finally, and i accept i may have missed the odd comment, can you please share a little of your methodology/betting approaches which might help. I am not asking for ‘big secrets’ just something that might help all of us rather than folk on here think, as i maybe am beginning to, that you like commenting on anything but that.

        Thanks anyone who has read this far, all the best John

        John Unitt 11/08/19 10:35 PM Reply


        • Hi John
          Last January AW only + 46.44 what has gone wrong this year have not a clue the AW this January never felt right and yesterday 20 potential bets and only one won a normal year 6/7 would have won.
          The mild winter there have not been many NH meetings abandoned until the last few days and suddenly there are 3 AW meetings on one day normally this would have happened in December maybe the trainers AW runners are behind in fitness who knows but something is radically wrong.
          Sadly for you not the best start
          Colin

          cleafe 12/08/19 1:26 AM Reply


          • Hi Colin, understood. No criticisms whatsoever – i just feel for everyone whether established or new people on the Site. I feel certain things will improve. Despite the other guys comments i feel i have taken full responsibility and just had a rather unlucky start. Not sure whether R Chubnut will reply but will be interested in what he says if he does 🙂

            John Unitt 12/08/19 3:00 AM Reply


            • John
              Never thought that you were giving criticism and anyway have skin of a rhino, just wanted to show you what it should be and my total frustration of not finding winners for hate for people to lose their hard earned cash on my bets.
              Should be having 4/6 bets per day in Jan and Feb not 1 in 2 days, starting point today 9 bets and can only go for one.
              Colin

              cleafe 12/08/19 4:19 AM Reply


      • Mockery of a bank
        20/1 to 7/1 lost 13 points to the bank how first of all can you achieve 20/1 i cannot and many more on here are unable to take a price in the morning, were there N/Rs in this race which may have helped the price to shorten, do not know, and do not care and cannot be bothered to look it up.
        Lets spell it out everyone you do not need a bank no standing orders no direct debits no mortgage payments via the bank, once again you need a bank so you can bet no money no bet a betting bank is security, and if you lose your betting bank then you should review your financial situation.
        Advise Clive Holt book published in 1988 and his basic and simple guide lines where he covers a betting bank and other aspects of punting in idiot terms and thank goodness i am an idiot!!!

        cleafe 12/08/19 12:35 AM Reply


  • Ken’s Tips (R/T 1/18 -11.45)

    Newcastle 6.45 Lexikon 9/1

    Ken McKenzie 11/08/19 8:21 PM Reply


    • One to add

      Newcastle 4.10 Royal Cosmic 6/1

      Ken McKenzie 12/08/19 4:09 AM Reply


  • Nothing today.

    silver 11/08/19 8:21 PM Reply


  • The forum isn’t working for me Josh. Using chrome on a desktop, just says I need to be logged in to view. Tried logging in/out, turned off AdBlocker ( the usual culprit), not sure why nothing happens.

    chris 04/02/19 6:56 PM Reply


    • Ah could be a technical gremlin… did I add you in manually to members’ club?? that could be only explanation as could be it’s blocking you as didn’t sign up through ‘normal’ process and that may affect around 20 odd, but not sure. Hmm. I’ll have a look tomorrow when I get a moment – that issue was the one that I thought we’d solved!

      Josh 04/02/19 7:07 PM Reply


      • I get the same message Josh, even though I am logged in.

        Mark Curtis 04/02/19 8:05 PM Reply


      • Think it may be chrome, as mine isn`t working either.

        Stewart 05/02/19 8:20 AM Reply


        • hmm, something is clearly broken for some, odd. I’m on chrome and it is fine so don’t think it’s that. The ‘must be logged in’, when you are logged in, is the gremlin i thought i’d resolved but clearly has for some, and not for others. Martin C and Mike have posted in there fine.

          Josh 05/02/19 9:06 AM Reply


        • I have Chrome and I posted tips on the forum OK.

          martin colwell 05/02/19 9:40 AM Reply


      • Not that I am posting tips, but get the “You must be logged in to reply to this topic.”

        Aspirin 05/02/19 8:40 AM Reply


        • I have Chromium (open source version of Chrome), and Firefox on this machine and both are getting the ‘you must be logged in’ message with access denied, so is unlikely to be a browser problem. Have you checked the global settings on your website Josh?

          Tim Hanson 05/02/19 9:23 AM Reply


          • Yea not sure what’s going on – i’ve just logged in as you Tim and yep that ‘log in’ message is there and can’t post. Some can just fine, others not so much. I think it’s to do with how my membership software is talking to workpress in background and vice versa – something clearly not working as it should be, so will investigate.

            Josh 05/02/19 10:24 AM Reply


            • One culprit could be I.E.
              Even though peeps may not be loading it, if it’s on their machine and they haven’t blocked it from all activity it will be piggy-backing their browser so some connections will see 2 entries and can’t recognise the code.
              Anyone got IE loaded and can get in with firefox/chrome ?
              I delete it and all it’s hangers with every new machine.

              Titus 05/02/19 4:54 PM Reply


          • Have had Firefox for years and after their data breach couple of years ago approx, stayed with them for my son said they are tip top with their security now, thankfully he knows what he is talking about for i am clueless with computers.
            Colin.

            cleafe 05/02/19 1:36 PM Reply


      • Firefox works fine for me

        nickmazur 05/02/19 9:36 AM Reply


        • Hi, not working for me either, saying must be logged in to reply!!! Able to view the other placed comments (4 as of 09:50)

          Solent

          SOLENT 05/02/19 9:53 AM Reply


        • Can’t get on with Chrome or Firefox.

          Ken McKenzie 05/02/19 3:17 PM Reply


  • Feb tip comp
    16:10 Newcastle – Good man
    17:45 Newcastle – Eternal Sun

    chris 04/02/19 7:00 PM Reply


  • Well… I expected the frequency of my bets to drop over Feb’ and March but I’m in danger of not making the maximum 20 bets for the tipping contest if things carry on this way. Absolute desert for decent novice races right now and as for unexposed runners in handicaps, the situation has been much the same only difference being that anything of interest has been well and truly stitched up by the market.

    Tomorrow isn’t too much to get excited about either, so I’m not expecting the drought to end any time soon. R/T 0W, 2L, P/L -2.0

    Tim Hanson 04/02/19 7:26 PM Reply


  • Systems selection – Karl Burke at Newcastle – 6.45 Fflur, 1 point each way at 10/1 BOG.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 04/02/19 7:46 PM Reply


  • Crystal Lad Market Rasen 15:25 1pt e/w-16/1-I am not a fan of the front of the market here and this one looks way too big. He went chasing last season and it didn’t work out (although he wasn’t disgraced at class 3 and class 4 level) but before that he was a very promising horse. He was never put into the race LTO and the ground was too fast the time before however on his previous hurdle run he was 5L in the Grade 3 novice hurdle final and which is regularly one of the hottest races in the spring and most of the horses in that are rated 130-140+. That was off 129 and he gets to race off 10lbs lower. Trainer and jockey don’t visit here very often but are 1/3, 3p in the past 2 years. I expect Jamie to race him prominently and he should go very close.
    Eternal Sun Newcastle 17:45 1pt e/w-7/1-I don’t get why this one isn’t favourite. He is by far and away the most unexposed horse here. He has won at the track and is in form. Taking away his re-appearance he is 113 in his last 3 runs. The form of his last run couldn’t have worked out better. The winner finished 2nd in 2 class 2s. The 2nd won a class 4 NTO and the 4th won a class 3 NTO. He races off the same mark here but actually drops down in class and gets a massive jockey upgrade. Jockey is 2/5, 3p for the trainer in handicaps since the start of 2018 and 1/3, 2p at the track. Trainer has a solid 6/32, 10p +16 record in handicaps at the track in the past 2 years. Should get a nice tow into the race from Bernie’s Boy and I expect another to go very close here.

    nickmazur 04/02/19 9:30 PM Reply


  • Feb Comp Tip – 15.25 Market Rasen Earlofthecotswolds 6/1 – can turn tables with Seemingly So at the weights and with the extra distance in his favour
    R/T W2/L2 +12.04 BFSP

    Jim Barker 04/02/19 9:36 PM Reply


    • Nice one
      Jim 🙂

      Mark Curtis 05/02/19 4:40 PM Reply


      • Thanks Mark, v happy with 6/1 I got last night, but heavily backed today so BFSP for comp just above 9/4

        Jim Barker 05/02/19 7:17 PM Reply


  • today’s selections,
    Market Rasen.
    4-00. Hattons Hill 12-1
    4-30. Very Extravagant 12-1
    both 1/2 pt ew

    martin whittle 11/08/19 8:21 PM Reply


    • fair start to February plenty of places but still can’t find that elusive winner, up 4.5 pts so markedly better than last month.

      martin whittle 11/08/19 10:35 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, commiserations on just how bad it has been. (I did post last couple of days but no doubt u been busy) Just hope that not too many joined on the December recruitment round when i did. S2A, W1 and with unbelievable timing followed the ‘best of jumps stats qualifiers’ right at its peak (+ 34 was it) Add to that Colins bets where he says worst January ever and you get the drift! S1 S3A# and Nicks helped avoid it being worse. I should have paid heed when you advised ‘not too many’ approaches. At least the sensible advice on here Decent Bank for each + low stakes helped but what an awful baptism. Will be tightening up on probably 4 now S1 S3A# and your BRTips when they come plus Nick’s of course. Still pleased to be involved but my record (should have warned you – of me ALWAYS having a losing effect on just about every service i have joined 🙂 . the difference is the others were invariably crap, but this one will be fine over time! ) All the best John

    John Unitt 04/02/19 9:44 PM Reply


    • I read every comment John! 🙂 Didn’t think last one warranted a reply on what I’d said before haha. And didn’t ask me a direct question hence lack of reply so apols. It rest assured everything gets read. Oh there was a good wedge on the winter drive and plenty still around. But yep it hasn’t been great esp of starting with X, y and z and as always timing can be everything. Such is the approach in these parts you could have a 150+ month. Maybe Feb or March! The longer term picture over 2 1/2 years has been fine. But that doesn’t help too much at this moment in time. Nick will win 300+ points this year and S1/S3A# will be 100+ ! 🙂

      Josh 04/02/19 10:05 PM Reply


    • John, your profile is a well trodden corridor and as I said before you need take responsibility for your own circumstances. Anybody who makes money at this game long term works unbelievably hard with the upmost discipline. Again I’ll repeat, if you think you can just get up in the morning, read a few posts, blindly follow your whim for the month and expect that everything will come up roses, you are going down a dark road.
      Sunday you popped out with your wife for the afternoon, in that time Stewart posted a 20/1 shot that ended up 7s. If you were following him and bet it at 7s that’s 13 pts adrift you are in one bet !! which makes a mockery of having a bank. The Stats are there for guidance and the tips from other members should also be viewed as well informed opinion for you to make your choices.

      BTW: I dont take Mrs Chubnut anywhere during racing hours, she’s cost me far too much in the past. Sorry to be so blunt but I cant see any change in your long term betting until you change.

      chubnut 04/02/19 11:13 PM Reply


      • Mockery of a bank
        20/1 to 7/1 lost 13 points to the bank how first of all can you achieve 20/1 i cannot and many more on here are unable to take a price in the morning, were there N/Rs in this race which may have helped the price to shorten, do not know, and do not care and cannot be bothered to look it up.
        Lets spell it out everyone you do not need a bank no standing orders no direct debits no mortgage payments via the bank, once again you need a bank so you can bet no money no bet a betting bank is security, and if you lose your betting bank then you should review your financial situation.
        Advise Clive Holt book published in 1988 and his basic and simple guide lines where he covers a betting bank and other aspects of punting in idiot terms and thank goodness i am an idiot!!!

        cleafe 05/02/19 8:07 AM Reply


      • A touch harsh but the message of selectiveness is correct. I have a system that does that for me that has worked for me but I appreciate that it is much more difficult if you dont. I would stick with Nick and Tim and S1/S3A and then re evaluate after February.

        martin colwell 05/02/19 10:18 AM Reply


      • Response to Chubnut (invitation to Josh and others to comment too) A long post because it needs to be.
        Chubnut – i recognise that you seem to be attempting to protect newbies somehow, myself included, and whilst that may be laudable i think you are a mixture of way off the mark, makes assumptions and are opinionated, and quite patronising. The issue that really none of those help folk!

        You talk about my ‘profile’ – what do you mean? the comments i have shared or what else. If you are tarring all newbies with the same brush then you are making assumptions about people who by their nature will differ a great deal. I may be new on here BUT have a long time interest, decades in fact. But another newbie may have little or even no any experience of Betting.

        ‘Following my whim for a month’ Nonesense. Its 2 months now and i ONLY followed those of Josh s that were profitable and also Nick’s and Colins (the bets ones) again both profitable. I allocated a Bank to each and a sensible stake (again in line with Joshs table on loser levels and multiplied that by 2 or 3 as he suggested. I have at least twice admitted that i used too many, and that 3 or 4 probably better and have registered that with Josh. Had they ALL carried on being profitable over this crappy January then i would have made more than i have lost. If you can explain how my approach has been ‘irresponsible’ i would love to hear it. Life is all about making decisions – yes hindsight is wonderful, and as it turned out my decision was not ‘bad’ per se,
        it was simply unfortunate. With a stack of Winners it would not have been, good, simply fortunate.

        Why i joined. When i became aware of RtoP i questioned Josh a fair bit in emails and as an analytical person i think both he and i realised that i asked more Q s than most 🙂 It was clear that there are a range of people on here from those who might want to spend just 10 or 15 minutes a day, and others who do much more including spending hours a day at it. I fall somewhere nearer the first, BUT the important thing for me was that Josh explained the Site catered for both, so in i came. On the basis that at present i can invariably get on at, or very near to, the price suggested by Josh or the others i follow what on earth is all this nonesense about ‘taking my wife out on Sunday afternoon’ (her Birthday) Had Josh said i would need to spend hours on end every day i would not have joined! Simple decision. For the record i CHOOSE to do other things including a major project from home which as i get older is very important to me and i will be on that for at least 9 to 12 months. I wouldn’t dream of sharing what it is with you because i m sure you would have an opinion on it! 🙂

        As i said at the start you seem to be well meaning about ‘new people’ but i think you are going about things the wrong way! (woops now i am being opinionated) So a few things to finish with.

        BANKS – you clearly have a bee in the bonnet on this one. SO if they are completely out of the window how do YOU manage your ,money and stakes then? I was thinking that the spectrum on this starts with at one extreme ‘Mr Dafty’ who joins the service is clueless and with no consideration on how much money he can afford to lose so he chucks a fiver or a tenner at every selection every day and at the end of a month, if that long, he has likely started spending the Gas/Electric/Food money. Other end of spectrum is Mr Moneybags – who has had a lottery win or large inheritance and in his words ‘just doesnt need to mange available money to bet with. Hopefully most, likely all, of us are in the middle. So whet to you do then? i m sure we would all love to know!

        Also where you say ‘i cant see any change in your betting until you change’ can you please explain that patronising comment in simple terms – against the FULL BACKGROUND I HAVE EXPLAINED ABOVE.

        Finally, and i accept i may have missed the odd comment, can you please share a little of your methodology/betting approaches which might help. I am not asking for ‘big secrets’ just something that might help all of us rather than folk on here think, as i maybe am beginning to, that you like commenting on anything but that.

        Thanks anyone who has read this far, all the best John

        John Unitt 05/02/19 10:35 AM Reply


        • Hi John
          Last January AW only + 46.44 what has gone wrong this year have not a clue the AW this January never felt right and yesterday 20 potential bets and only one won a normal year 6/7 would have won.
          The mild winter there have not been many NH meetings abandoned until the last few days and suddenly there are 3 AW meetings on one day normally this would have happened in December maybe the trainers AW runners are behind in fitness who knows but something is radically wrong.
          Sadly for you not the best start
          Colin

          cleafe 05/02/19 12:42 PM Reply


          • Hi Colin, understood. No criticisms whatsoever – i just feel for everyone whether established or new people on the Site. I feel certain things will improve. Despite the other guys comments i feel i have taken full responsibility and just had a rather unlucky start. Not sure whether R Chubnut will reply but will be interested in what he says if he does 🙂

            John Unitt 05/02/19 1:16 PM Reply


            • John
              Never thought that you were giving criticism and anyway have skin of a rhino, just wanted to show you what it should be and my total frustration of not finding winners for hate for people to lose their hard earned cash on my bets.
              Should be having 4/6 bets per day in Jan and Feb not 1 in 2 days, starting point today 9 bets and can only go for one.
              Colin

              cleafe 05/02/19 1:31 PM Reply


    • Just a quick word of advice for you, as you know my winners are few and far between, but, when i do get them, they usually come in at a decent price, to emphasize this, read this cautionary tale I have posted previously from twitter.
      I used to post my “tips” on twitter, some people who followed me knew that when I posted, sometimes they would go without winners for quite a few weekends, they knew that every now and then a 20/1 or a couple of 8/1 winners would come in and wipe the previous weekends woes away.
      I had a couple of idiots though who wanted winners straight away and would pm me with all sorts of disgusting comments, one actually said ” I have followed you for 4 weeks straight and you have given me 16 straight losers. I wish you and your family are involved in a freak road traffic accident on the A1!!”. He unfollowed me the week after that and sure enough I had a 20/1 winner and a 12/1 within my selections..(Everyone on here who follows me, knows that to be true).Suppose it`s the reason I hardly ever post on twitter now, just pm my selections out now. There is a moral to the story, it`s all about the profit and who you follow, Nick and Josh are top draw, my fault is i follow both of them win only and I know Nick will have a go at me for that, as, like he says, he did show a profit from doing them each way, maybe if i start doing them each way they will start winning. He and Josh are different gravy though and I have learnt a heck of a lot from both of them!

      Stewart 05/02/19 8:01 AM Reply


      • Hi Stewart
        Had the abuse a blip at Surewin and they released my mobile number to 5 clients in error, only one kept ringing and it is disgusting what he came out with, the other 4 after a chat were fine.
        Pleased read your report for my finger was on the keypad will give you another week!!! Ha Ha.
        For EW it is okay if you have bookmakers accounts to put it on.
        For years have backed win only and in January Nick released his figures towards the end of January and at the time was break even checked my win only and was the same break even and that was BF EX SP will be interesting over a few months to see how Nicks EW and BF EX SP compare, and how many on here can get the over night prices certainly not me, win only long losing runs so you need a bank so you can bet long term.
        Colin.

        cleafe 05/02/19 8:30 AM Reply


        • I’ve got some figures here for Nick to BFSP for the past 18 months but they are field adjusted. I’ll dig them out if anyone’s interested.

          Tim Hanson 05/02/19 9:37 AM Reply


          • Yes please Tim. I would much appreciate this info. Thanks. Patrick

            Patrick Reid 05/02/19 9:45 AM Reply


            • The results go back to the 24/10/17 and AFAIA are complete but only recorded to the default setting of => number of runners to BFSP.

              Is not as good as best early price available and doesn’t include the place stake of Nick’s recommended bet so you need to double the profit to equalise the staking. All bets were recorded to level stakes 1pt.

              32W 305L 9.5% SR
              P/L + 213.9 63.5% ROI

              So investing the same amount of money in them as Nick would return +427.8 over the same period of time. Is not as good as his EW method, but at least you can get decent stakes on.

              Tim Hanson 05/02/19 10:34 AM Reply


              • Is actually past 14 months not 18 as previously stated.

                Tim Hanson 05/02/19 10:42 AM Reply


              • Nick is a legend on the tipping front. I also hear that he is in line to be the next James Bond!

                Ooohhh Yessshhhh.

                martin colwell 05/02/19 10:55 AM Reply


              • The number of bets seem a little low. Does it include all bets in that period since I would have expected the number to be considerably higher since that seem to suggest I average 24 a month?

                nickmazur 05/02/19 11:08 AM Reply


                • Is not all the bets, it’s just a way of creaming off the big value bets that tend to get well extended odds over ISP on Betfair. It also tends to rule out the ones that get smashed in on the basis that even at B/f odds all the value is likely to be gone by the time the sheep are done with them. It also doesn’t take place bets into account so cannot benefit from those shrewdy bets you place. and I know that you know which ones I’m talking about Mr Mazur. 😉 Very shrewd… however, almost impossible to place on B/f as the layers can spot each way thievery from the next town away. The place odds are always adjusted in accordance with the nature and make up of the race and all that 1/4 & 1/5 odds stuff is as good as forgotten. Unlike most all tipsters that recommend EW place betting, your selections do actually profit from the place portion of the bet quite considerably in the long term.

                  Tim Hanson 05/02/19 11:30 AM Reply


                  • That would make sense yeah. I suspect the flat would have performed better than the rest given the larger fields and the weather this jumps season will have been detrimental to that so will be interesting if my suspicions are correct given I am keeping better records this year.

                    nickmazur 05/02/19 11:41 AM Reply


                    • This year’s jumps is only 5 points above break even, which is way below last year’s jumps. You are correct cos the vast majority of the profit was made on the flat however, smaller fields =10 runners I might try capping the minimum odds required at 75% for next flat season and split for place bet as the places are usually at or around bookies prices in the bigger fields.

                      Tim Hanson 05/02/19 12:06 PM


  • Ken’s Tips (R/T 1/18 -11.45)

    Newcastle 6.45 Lexikon 9/1

    Ken McKenzie 04/02/19 9:46 PM Reply


    • One to add

      Newcastle 4.10 Royal Cosmic 6/1

      Ken McKenzie 05/02/19 2:50 PM Reply


  • Nothing today.

    silver 04/02/19 10:04 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS…..None that I can see but still the odd problem with tracker. Was able to log in yesterday and haven’t missed any so far.

    Titus 11/08/19 8:21 PM Reply


  • today’s selections,
    Market Rasen.
    4-00. Hattons Hill 12-1
    4-30. Very Extravagant 12-1
    both 1/2 pt ew

    martin whittle 05/02/19 2:42 AM Reply


    • fair start to February plenty of places but still can’t find that elusive winner, up 4.5 pts so markedly better than last month.

      martin whittle 05/02/19 2:48 AM Reply


    • staked 2 pts ,returns 1.9 pts (14-1 BV) , down 0.1 pts

      martin whittle 06/02/19 1:02 AM Reply


  • Hi all, my three TIPs for today.

    All at M/R

    14:55 GARRETTSTOWN @ 9.5
    16:00 FOLLOW THE SWALLOW @ 6.5
    16:30 TREASURE DILLON @ 7.5

    G.L.
    Solent

    SOLENT 12/08/19 3:50 AM Reply


  • Tips for today
    4.00 Hattons Hill
    6.15 I’m Improving
    7.15 First Breath

    1/7 so far
    -5.1 BFSP

    Josh the forum isn’t working for me either. Says I need to be logged in. Cheers

    Stan 12/08/19 3:50 AM Reply


  • This is the only place I can post my tips

    (overall 10 bets (10pts) – return 10.5pts)

    Today

    Dartford Warbler 4.00 MR
    Follow The Swallow 4.00 MR
    Notachance 4.30 MR
    Tikk Tock Boom 4.30 MR

    Andrew Gilmore 12/08/19 3:50 AM Reply


  • there’s no fool like an old fool, been doing walking football for the over 50’s on a Monday evening and last night overstretched into a challenge and pulled my hamstring, to make matters worse felt it go and threw myself to the ground forgetting it was a 3D pitch and bruised all my ribs on right side. to make matters even worse got the wife extracting the urine saying she wished she had been there with a camera as it must have been like a whale coming down and hitting the water, that’s the trouble when you marry a nurse never any sympathy.

    martin whittle 05/02/19 6:35 AM Reply


    • 3D pitch ???? mmmm perhaps that should have been 3G

      martin whittle 05/02/19 6:44 AM Reply


      • Every sympathy Martin. i joined local one about 3 years ago and after a few weeks taking a turn in goal, as you do, this hot shot guy hit a ferocious shot from about 8 years. My old reflexes were there and stuck my right hand up and made the ‘save of the season’. so much power it went from the front heel of my hand (just above wrist) straight upwards and touched what is an extremely high roof. Suddenly intense pain, despite the keepers gloves, and off i trooped where X ray showed a hairline fracture on the other side of my wrist. Bloody right hand of course, could nt drive for a month leading up to the then Chrismas time. Not been back since t b h ! Being a F/T nurse my wife had no sympathy whatsover 🙂 I have just seen an ad up here for Walking cricket and when casually mentioning it, well – the look on her face. All the best hope it soon heals John

        John Unitt 05/02/19 7:20 AM Reply


        • WOOPS – typo – read 8 Yards!

          John Unitt 05/02/19 7:21 AM Reply


        • I did think of taking up Bowls, a true standing still and walking sport. However at 59 I may be too young? Also whilst i would look dashing in blazer and flannels and the blue rinse girls would be after me, I dont fancy that look.

          When I watch Millwall I sometimes think they have taken on walking football.

          martin colwell 05/02/19 9:47 AM Reply


          • same age Martin, Chelsea fan myself but i had a next door neighbour Rob who was a season ticket holder at the Den and when Millwall played Chelsea in the old league cup he got us tickets , when Kerry Dixon rose like a salmon at the far post and nodded us in front i forgot where i was and jumped up and cheered copper came and stood next to me and just said “if i was you i wouldn’t go for a piss” 🙂

            martin whittle 05/02/19 12:24 PM Reply


            • Yes, i was a young adult in the seventies and eighties and so got mixed up in all the nonsense from time to time. I remember beating Chelsea in the nineties at Stamford Bridge in the old league cup. I dont go to away games much these days, too much hassle etc.

              martin colwell 05/02/19 2:48 PM Reply


    • Walking football! lmao 🙂 Never heard of it. Sounds a bit like golf only without having to carry a bag of sticks around with you. 😀

      Tim Hanson 05/02/19 9:29 AM Reply


      • growing in popularity Tim as there is a definite market for:

        a) the shall we say more mature man to play some kind of football who hasn’t got the legs (excuse the pun) to play 90 mins on the local parks v the whippersnappers
        b) not classing anyone in this (Martin), a great way for the shall we say slightly overweight male to play his football sport and with his mates / make new friends.

        Haven’t played it myself but fair play to those who play and organise

        general6969 05/02/19 1:42 PM Reply


        • only two who said that they have played walking football both injured think i will give it a miss and stick to tiddlywinks much safer!

          cleafe 05/02/19 2:22 PM Reply


  • Forum won’t let me post, Firefox on Windows.

    Yesterday lost. Running total, bets 4, won 1, +8.45.

    I have a Newcastle system which gives 5.15 Chosen World so that is my tip today.

    Chris Murrell 12/08/19 3:50 AM Reply


  • System bets

    2.20 MR Quantum of Sollace
    3.25 MR Twotwothree

    1pt win on both

    Francis 12/08/19 3:50 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS…..None that I can see but still the odd problem with tracker. Was able to log in yesterday and haven’t missed any so far.

    Titus 05/02/19 7:00 AM Reply


  • No Tips today.
    So far 1 w / 6 L – net -4.25 points (to BSP)

    John Unitt 12/08/19 3:50 AM Reply


  • Feb tipping comp

    18.15 New – I’m Improving (wish that was true 🙂 )

    19.15 New – Star Cracker

    Good luck.

    Mark Curtis 12/08/19 3:50 AM Reply


  • Very Extravagant – 4.30 MR 16/1
    Interesting that Gary Moore sends only this one on a 200 mile journey and has booked STD. They are 3 from 4 over timber below class 2 level and he’s 1/1 on the horse. Has won at higher levels in the past but not won for 2 years but as a result is now very well treated if back to fitness or form (whatever the reason was for not winning last 2 years). Slight ground concern as all wins have been on Good, but finished 5 lengths back in a class 4 on GS at Wetherby on its last start so i don’t think it is a major put off.

    James P 12/08/19 4:09 AM Reply


    • gah 2nd, was looking good for a while

      James P 12/08/19 4:09 AM Reply


  • Only chance of a bet for me this afternoon lies in the 2.55 but right now I need to see some market activity so will post again at 2.00 with a final decision Evening update at 4.00 as usual.

    Tim Hanson 12/08/19 4:09 AM Reply


  • No luck on tipping comp section. Keeps requesting log in. So:-
    Tuesday.
    6.45 Macs Blessings.
    7.15 Star Cracker.
    Good trainer/jockey combinations.

    chris chubb 12/08/19 4:09 AM Reply


  • Only 1 today

    4:30 MR Wasdell

    utsav_killa 12/08/19 4:09 AM Reply


  • Feb Comp Tip:
    Newc 6:45 Alfred the Grey – Has run well here and Trainer/ Jockey combo promising.

    Drifting in market not so promising.

    Mark Burns 12/08/19 4:09 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Out of the 20 potential bets yesterday only 1 winner so thankfully assessed the day well.

    5.45 Newcastle Another Angel BOG 5/1

    ELITE BETS
    4.10 Newcastle Good Man BOG 10/1
    Colin

    cleafe 05/02/19 9:32 AM Reply


    • Another one backed from 5/1 to 3/1 with Another Angel

      cleafe 05/02/19 5:56 PM Reply


      • Nice one Colin. Got 5s so well pleased. Had a winner myself and Nick’s 16/1 place so decent day all round.

        Ken McKenzie 05/02/19 6:00 PM Reply


  • Colin again bemoans the lack of BOG bookies above so I’ll re-iterate past comments I’ve made that may get you back in with some if you’ve got closed/restricted a/c’s from a while ago.

    Easiest way is sign up for a shop card. Lads,Coral,Fred,PP all offer some bog in shop with card. Hills have loads of daily price boosts etc though no bog. Play a smattering of sports bets along with the nags. Wait for the txt to invite you to link your card to a new online a/c. It won’t happen over night but over time you may get some of them back. I’m only waiting for PP from these 5. Lads in the past restricted me to bets of 99p potential winnings!!!! and were the first to offer a new a/c.

    DO NOT HAVE FLASH ON YOUR PC, or you’ll lose them again very quickly and NEVER bet through oddschecker or any comparison site.

    You could simply ring em up and ask to be unrestricted/re-opened especially if a number of years have elapsed.

    There are a few under the radar small/independent’s that offer bog on all UK racing. These are usually better for phone bets as you aren’t ringing a call centre and you can build a relationship with the staff.

    Titus 05/02/19 9:40 AM Reply


    • Thanks mate will try that I would love my ladbrokes account back

      christopher jones 05/02/19 9:43 AM Reply


      • hi CJ, I only found out because you needed a card to get bog on all races in corals/lads shops. Not so long ago you could get bog on all UK racing in shops that had a competitor close by. Came as a surprise when lads offered me a new a/c so got cards for the others. Fred allowed bog on small odds win bets (any stake) only until recently. Now it’s just the odd biggie e/w that’s refused or allowed with smaller stake.
        If memory serves (ahem, a big if at my age as I probably lose more brain cells in an hour than I have erections in a year) it was 3/4 months for Lads to come through. What was even more surprising was I going to different towns/cities on a daily basis so that the same staff weren’t seeing me every day. Not as hard work as it sounds as I like a proper beer and it takes me 15 mins to walk to a station in the M62 corridor.

        Titus 05/02/19 10:25 AM Reply


    • Interesting insight. I have almost gone into the local Ladbrokes in past years, but can’t bring myself to pass through the door because the place just speaks of the sadness of losing gamblers. Maybe that’s just my two local branches. I was planning on trying to open new accounts after I move house at end March (yes, on Brexit Day!). I wonder if any others have experience of reopening accounts after years of quiet exclusion.

      manyanga 05/02/19 10:25 AM Reply


    • Mike
      Thanks for that when up and running again will check it out, Betting shops staff soon get to know your face and if you are a consistent winner in the shops over a period of time they will not take your bets this is nothing new for it went on 40 years ago, they have cameras around every shop and they have photos of people that they do not wish to take a bet from behind the counter say in every PP shop they are not daft.
      If they reinstate you on the computer would imagine flagged up to the hilt to be watched and once again will be quick to close the account.
      Having a rough time on my bets but in most cases beat the price other day one was 7/2 down to 2/1 and if your are beating SP and winning then they are watching you.
      Guess it is also the amount of the stake 10 years ago would have bets of £200 regular and when Willie Mcfarland gave one of Nicky Hendersons would have £400 on the nose at 10/1 and the SP would be 4/1, said earlier the bookmakers are not daft.
      And yes if i bemoan BOG take it we are talking on a different level then this is the reason why would love to be on it for was making a very good living punting till i was closed down and i mean closed down Cannot get SP from PP,365, Lad, BV and many more, manage to get £5ew on my golf bets with CO and WH and that is a struggle but both will not take my horse bets.
      Colin.

      cleafe 05/02/19 10:44 AM Reply


      • You say that re knowing your face and they do. However if you live in or nearby a ‘Town’ it is a different game. I am a few miles outside Maidstone but can travel in to the centre and find 8 different bookmakers. I can get some meaty bets on if I keep a track of who I visited and when and if I won? Also some of the staff are just disinterested and take bets up to a maximum they have.
        And I do not have to go in disguise (the Tina Turner outfit is still in the cupboard).

        martin colwell 05/02/19 11:00 AM Reply


        • Cameras does not matter what the punter does every time you collect your photo is taken and would imagine the shop manager/area manager will review the tape for patterns of winners.
          Staff in Sheffield are friendly to the customer for a good chat and a free tea could keep the punter in the shop and these are the city centre shops having more bets terrible service down South if i was the area manager they would be having a kick up the bum.
          Tina Turner now the mind boggles will not be able to watch her again without nightmares!!! Ha Ha
          Colin

          cleafe 05/02/19 11:24 AM Reply


        • Maidstone was my neck of the woods as a youngster, lived in East Malling, Penenden Heath and East Farleigh

          martin whittle 05/02/19 12:41 PM Reply


          • I am from South London but marriage has brought me here. The town centre is not that nice but the surrounding villages and countryside and pubs are very nice. We live in Loose and have buy to let properties in Barming.

            martin colwell 05/02/19 12:44 PM Reply


            • used to drink in the walnut tree is it still there?

              martin whittle 05/02/19 12:53 PM Reply


              • Yes it is. They have bands on of a weekend. It is a bit run down compared to the surrounding ‘gastro’ pubs.

                martin colwell 05/02/19 1:02 PM Reply


      • Crazy. As has been said many times, these exclusions are scandalous. The industry cries crocodile tears for the losses made by failing gamblers, but excludes bets from anyone not making a loss. How many businesses can legally exclude a customer like this, when no rules are broken? Imagine I was excluded from Marks & Spencer or Waitrose because I only ever buy Yellow Label (price reduced), or from InterTrader because I make a profit on share transactions. They’d be breaking the law.

        manyanga 05/02/19 11:09 AM Reply


      • Hi Colin, glad to see all is ok with yourself after the op.

        Flagging: I did talk with a dealer at Lads before linking my bank a/c with the shop card to allow online betting and was told there can be no guarantees but if I continue with similar bets as in the shops I’ll be ok.
        On the issue of ££ bet I think the question should be ‘what is the bookies % of exposure’. I can place a 1k bet on a 5/2 fav at Fred and then have a fiver e/w @ 66’s rejected.
        All the one’s you mention have closed/restricted me between 2012/14. I will not consider another VC a/c. I’ll tell you about my confrontation with him in Tatts at Aintree one day. No bog still at pp but the others are fine so far. Once I was closed/restricted I never gave them another bet (other than pp for golf) until I got a/c’s re-opened with bog or new one issued.
        I don’t withdraw from them as a rule and now use BF for placing extra on my main bets to use for cash. Why I didn’t look at doing that until quite recently still rankles.
        Mike

        Titus 05/02/19 11:22 AM Reply


        • That’s the exchange and not the sportsbook.

          Titus 05/02/19 11:31 AM Reply


          • A sudden thought whilst writing the above, PP only one not to offer new bog terms and it’s the only one to have bets from me after close/restrict.

            Titus 05/02/19 11:36 AM Reply


        • Mike
          Thanks for your words about the op will be fine in time just done my 39 stairs times 2 and will do the same or more this afternoon must build up the muscles in my leg.

          As expected you will be monitored and provided you lose its ok but start winning and it will be closed again, did they give you BOG.

          Cheltenham Festival a few years ago wanted £100 on one of McCoys big brave stand alone at 5/2 WH the rest of the accountants were 9/4, end of phone just going to the trader when he came back you can have £5 at 9/4 and £95 at SP said what about the 5/2 you are advertising the traders word is final put the £100 with another bookie at 9/4 could bet with them then.
          WH Cheltenham Festival and would not even take an £100 bet at 5/2.
          Colin

          cleafe 05/02/19 11:53 AM Reply


          • I’ve got unrestricted bog with lads/co/wh and partially restricted e/w with fred. I know fred will take 1k on a fav cos I did it by mistake and it lost though I did lay it and nearly recouped. Bloody wife wittering in the background whilst I was putting my bets on. She reckons she’s retiring later this year. Not without a p/t morning job she isn’t.
            I’m not wearing rosies and know long-term unless they are brought to book(no pun) by HMG the chances are they will be lost but I’ve got an extra bonus and taking more care of it.
            You seem to have had a very draconian service.

            Titus 05/02/19 12:49 PM Reply


          • “What are the 39 Steps”
            Richard Hannay

            alpha2 05/02/19 2:19 PM Reply


            • It was a film but in my case it is the amount of steps on the stairs to my front door so ideal to build up my leg muscles now done four times so 156 steps easy on a foul day like today, just have to be careful not to do to much 2 more today to do all bring well.
              Colin

              cleafe 05/02/19 2:28 PM Reply


  • Feb bets
    MR 4.00 Dartford Warbler
    MR 4.30 Loch Linnhe
    Nc 5.45 Orient Class

    freezing1 05/02/19 9:53 AM Reply


  • Hi all, my three TIPs for today.

    All at M/R

    14:55 GARRETTSTOWN @ 9.5
    16:00 FOLLOW THE SWALLOW @ 6.5
    16:30 TREASURE DILLON @ 7.5

    G.L.
    Solent

    SOLENT 05/02/19 10:28 AM Reply


  • Tips for today
    4.00 Hattons Hill
    6.15 I’m Improving
    7.15 First Breath

    1/7 so far
    -5.1 BFSP

    Josh the forum isn’t working for me either. Says I need to be logged in. Cheers

    Stan 05/02/19 10:57 AM Reply


  • This is the only place I can post my tips

    (overall 10 bets (10pts) – return 10.5pts)

    Today

    Dartford Warbler 4.00 MR
    Follow The Swallow 4.00 MR
    Notachance 4.30 MR
    Tikk Tock Boom 4.30 MR

    Andrew Gilmore 05/02/19 11:01 AM Reply


  • Forum won’t let me post, Firefox on Windows.

    Yesterday lost. Running total, bets 4, won 1, +8.45.

    I have a Newcastle system which gives 5.15 Chosen World so that is my tip today.

    Chris Murrell 05/02/19 11:57 AM Reply


  • System bets

    2.20 MR Quantum of Sollace
    3.25 MR Twotwothree

    1pt win on both

    Francis 05/02/19 11:57 AM Reply


  • No Tips today.
    So far 1 w / 6 L – net -4.25 points (to BSP)

    John Unitt 05/02/19 12:02 PM Reply


  • Feb tipping comp

    18.15 New – I’m Improving (wish that was true 🙂 )

    19.15 New – Star Cracker

    Good luck.

    Mark Curtis 05/02/19 12:05 PM Reply


  • Very Extravagant – 4.30 MR 16/1
    Interesting that Gary Moore sends only this one on a 200 mile journey and has booked STD. They are 3 from 4 over timber below class 2 level and he’s 1/1 on the horse. Has won at higher levels in the past but not won for 2 years but as a result is now very well treated if back to fitness or form (whatever the reason was for not winning last 2 years). Slight ground concern as all wins have been on Good, but finished 5 lengths back in a class 4 on GS at Wetherby on its last start so i don’t think it is a major put off.

    James P 05/02/19 12:43 PM Reply


    • Is that Gary Moore… spelt Neil Mulholland ! 🙂 I was momentarily confused there haha. Best of luck, certainly ran as if coming back into some sort of form LTO.

      Josh 05/02/19 1:06 PM Reply


      • Woops you are indeed right Josh! Head full of cold, so brain capacity is limited, not helpful on already limited brain!

        James P 05/02/19 1:34 PM Reply


    • gah 2nd, was looking good for a while

      James P 05/02/19 4:41 PM Reply


  • Only chance of a bet for me this afternoon lies in the 2.55 but right now I need to see some market activity so will post again at 2.00 with a final decision Evening update at 4.00 as usual.

    Tim Hanson 05/02/19 1:35 PM Reply


    • Still none the wiser so nothing for me this afternoon. Back at 4.00

      Tim Hanson 05/02/19 2:05 PM Reply


      • Nothing from me for Newcastle tonight either, but happy with the decision not to get involved with the 2.55 . Would not have picked the winner.

        Tim Hanson 05/02/19 3:59 PM Reply


  • No luck on tipping comp section. Keeps requesting log in. So:-
    Tuesday.
    6.45 Macs Blessings.
    7.15 Star Cracker.
    Good trainer/jockey combinations.

    chris chubb 05/02/19 1:35 PM Reply


  • Only 1 today

    4:30 MR Wasdell

    utsav_killa 05/02/19 2:10 PM Reply


  • Feb Comp Tip:
    Newc 6:45 Alfred the Grey – Has run well here and Trainer/ Jockey combo promising.

    Drifting in market not so promising.

    Mark Burns 05/02/19 2:31 PM Reply


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