Members Daily Post: 03/02/19 (complete)

Section 1 , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Irish Bonus Stats

Leopardstown

12.40 –

Court Maid  w1 w2 8/1

Cristal Icon 50/1

Tara Dylan 40/1

2.25 – Oscar Knight 16/1 S2A

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

 

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -5.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/9,2p, -1)

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/151,67p, +3.8, 1 point win)

None today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

4.10 – Land of hope and glory 12/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

73 Responses

  1. Sorry Josh but this game is so tough even when you’re right you can be wrong. I laid €300 @ 5.2 thinking it would drift with layers having the same opinion as me and ended up cashing out for a €110 loss. ( unhappy smiley)

    1. Open race without Presenting Percy and Kemboy, and could be a bigger priced winner on the ground – think this one is value of the market leaders and change of jockey is interesting

  2. TIP
    335 leop
    AL BOUM PHOTO
    LTO was in great form showing potential but this is with the bigboys when his mistakes got found out at both festivals last year ..Massive potential tho…

  3. February Comp Tip-1.35 Southwell Muatadel
    Roger Fell in good form at present
    4yo+’s very profitable at Southwell
    Ben Sanderson rides track well
    This a track debut for the horse,might not take to the sand.
    There was a bit of value in this one at 10/1 earlier,the current 6/1 is probably about right,at 6/1 i would let it run unbacked

  4. Well as someone mentioned think it was Martin, it was a weird old sort of a day.
    Ivanovitch just ran out of steam and may need an up and down track like Cheltenham which will play into his hands hopefully at a decent price.
    Onto tomorrow,
    14:25 Leopardstown
    CUNEO 6/1 gen 1pt win
    He is a bit short for what i like, but, just as Josh did yesterday, i looked at what else was in the race and thought you know what, at 6`s he is just value.. Rachael Blackmore gets on with this horse and he is lightly raced. I did think that some of Mr Elliotts horses are just not quite top peak atm, so, will take a stab with this one and maybe recoup come Cheltenham time. Won over the Christmas period quite well and no reason why he won`t progress.
    TIGRIS RIVER 40/1 Coral 1pt win
    like Ivanovich yesterday, this fella once flattered to deceive, gets on well with Mr Geraghty and those that say he is done as a jockey may need to sit up after this and Cheltenham. He has the form in the bag and at 40/1 is a bit too big. He finishes late, so, don`t expect to see him till late, but, at 40`s we can take a punt!!

    15:35 Leopardstown
    MONALEE 7/1 gen 1pt win
    He likes to front run and it seems a bit strange that Puppy Power is on board, he should be good enough, but, Al Boom photo is a big danger and Paul Townend riding for Mr Mullins is always worth watching out for, but, at 4`s is too short for me.
    ANIBALE FLY 12/1 gen 1pt win
    Now he also has been one of the nearly horses has Mr Geraghty on board and will come with a wet sail, he is the only one who didn`t take on Kemboy over Christmas, which is probably why the bookies don`t know where to price him, he gets on well with Barry and has top class form against some decent horses, we shall see how things pan out!

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with what ever you pick today / tomorrow.

    P.S. It is always harrowing to see horses break down and as I always say , as I`m a runner, if i go, i want it to be doing something i love, even though it may not be the best way to go, at least Special Tiara was racing and running….thoughts are with the yard and connections!!

    1. Yes,sad to see Special Tiara go down ,was always a treat to see him racing,a horse for true racing fans,always doing it the hard way,forcing the pace,the grafter that made you jump every fence with him and hoping against hope that he could race the field into submission.

    2. Stewart
      It is horrendous to witness just dug out the program Cheltenham Saturday 10th November 1990 12.45 Alaqui Dai Williams jockey Brendan Powell.
      Alaqui could have been the best horse he had trained in in those days he had 80 plus horses in training for they were talking Scottish National and next year Grand National.
      6 runner field Alaqui was always 20/30 lengths out the back crossed my mind that Dai had maybe got it wrong about the horses prospects, then turbo took over making rapid headway and would have won in my view but sadly came down at the 3rd last, remember running down the course towards the screens.
      Alaqui like any racehorse to the stable staff is like their child they have nurtured and loved them over a period of time and watched their progress and do they all hurt from owner, trainer and all stable staff, and Bev partner of Dai at the time sure she will not mind me saying that her heart stopped in the ambulance room and weeks later she said that she still goes to his box expecting him to be there.
      Then reality set in the moron racegoer couple of solicitors who had a horse in training with Dai came out with its only an horse they can get another one, decided to leave them at the bar!
      Colin.

      1. I totally agree with that Colin, having watched the “sport” for many a year and seeing so many greats, Dessie and Dancing Brave and being a kid watching re runs of Red Rum, then my first taste of a racecourse at Newton Abbott when i was a kid listening to the jockeys all shouting as i heard the “whoosh” as they all went past jumping the last that day and thinking “wow” just “wow!!”.
        It is either a love for the horses, or, the love of winning money that drives you i think Colin, there is no in between, yes, we all like to win money, we all like to be right, but the sheer joy when you see them jump, or, run should also be factored in and there is no better sight in my eyes watching a horse like Dessie or that selling plater at Pontefract on a wet and cold October day, knowing that so many people have brought those horses to the racecourse for our enjoyment, just so we can win a few bob….

        1. Newton Abbot easy access for the last fence and nothing finer than 3/4/5 horses and jockeys giving everything to win the noise is incredible and the speed is amazing, Newton Abbot is a wonderful course to experience this for it is only a short walk from the stand and bookmakers area, is this your local course Stewart.

          1. No , my local course is Haydock, we were on holiday and my Grandad took us all as a treat, back in the mid seventies, it is still a memory i have from that day and i must admit i was “hooked”, loved it then and loved it ever since, did fall out of love for a short while though, after all the fixing debacle and the way some horses were treated etc during the late nineties, but, watched Dark Horse and my love was rekindled! A must watch for how horses are treated and loved for anyone out there and ranks as one of my all time favourite films / documentaries! Love the Welsh National!!

    3. Morning,

      With ANIBALE FLY being a non runner and AL BOOM PHOTO being far too short at 3/1 i will now leave my sole selection as MONALEE, may do a rev forecast with AL BOOM PHOTO to eek out a bit of value..was really looking forward to seeing Anibale, hope everything is ok and he just hasn`t eaten up this morning.

    4. The Irish Gold cup has turned into a farce, straight match between Belshill and Road to Respect, the form from that in my opinion will mean nothing and it is just a canter out for both of them…

  5. today’s selections, all at Leopardstown.
    12-40. Smiling Eliza 33-1 WH 6 places
    2-25. Calie Du Mesnil 10-1 WH 5 places
    3-35. Anibale Fly 12-1
    4-10. Cubomania 11-1 5 places with a few
    all 1/2 pt ew
    2-25. The Gatechecker 28-1 1/4 pt ew

    1. whoops cocked up post should have read.

      today’s selections, all at Leopardstown.
      12-40.Alletrix 12-1 WH 6 places
      2-25. Calie Du Mesnil 10-1 WH 5 places
      3-35. Anibale Fly 12-1
      4-10. Cubomania 11-1 5 places with a few
      all 1/2 pt ew
      12-40. Smiling Eliza 33-1
      2-25. The Gatechecker 28-1
      both 1/4 pt ew

      1. Like the Anibale Fly pick Martin, not so with Cubomania though, just think he is a “nearly” horse, would love to be wrong and wish you good luck with all the others you have picked.

  6. P/l -9 pts

    Todays
    1:35 w First excel
    1:35 w Major crispies
    1:35 w Liamba

    2:45 w Uncle Jerry
    2:45 w Foolad

    All TIPS

  7. Bonus race.. haha

    Now I have studied this race to the bone and will probably still get it wrong, but, just feel the market leaders are vulnerable, think it may be a flip flopping exercise depending on how the bookies have done earlier in the day..

    16:10 Leopardstown
    LANDOFHOPEANDGLORY 14/1 gen 1pt win
    Now, I have watched a couple of his races, he does just enough when he likes and how he wants to do it, so, he could end up winning smart, or, sulk and finish out the back of the tv. 14`s is about right for him and given the fact Luke Dempsey has been given another ride on him along with his low weight factored in, that is value.
    WHISPERINTHEBREEZE 20/1 gen 1pt win
    Now, having tipped this one last time up, i am not going to miss out this time, think Mrs Harrington knows how to place them, she is a little out of form atm, so, 20`s is about right for this bruiser, he was all over the winner lto and missed out to a horse who will not go down without a fight (namely Se Mo Laoch). Mrs Harrington did hit the woodwork twice yesterday, so, maybe the tides are turning, Whisper is thrown in here though off a low weight and i think that form lto is solid!

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and good luck with whatever you pick today.

      1. Thanks everyone, always appreciated, just thought the price looked a bit odd, thrown in on the weight. I mean if Speaker Connolly is your tissue favourite, then Whisper should be around the 6 / 7 to 1 mark, which was his final SP. Sometimes I think our bookies over here don`t know how to price the Irish races up, which makes for an interesting angle and I am exploiting that as anyone can see.

    1. Cracking pick Stewart, well done! An unexposed chaser, big connections, prominent racer, decent jumper, had been running well, ‘could be anything’ from that mark, had won in rules career, and a point, and arrived in form, stamina giving out late over 25f LTO, 21 f today. Course experience. Easy!! Great spot, what a mad price.

  8. Competition Tip
    1.35 Southwell : Kommader Kirkup
    back into class 6 for win .. it’s his normal “m.o.” faff around in some class 5’s and then back into his comfort zone of a class 6. Loves Southwell ……… ehat’s not to like? 🙂
    gl/gb 🙂

    1. WHAT HAPPENED THERE FFS .. LOL 🙂 missed the break ??????? ( too many people betting on it .. stable weren’t having it !! ..lol )

      gl/gb 🙂 .. i did do newstead abbey as a one of my 2 savers .. so thanks whoever put that up in there thoughts above 🙂

  9. RECENT TIPS
    Daily AW
    S 3.50 – Break The Silence on 8th run
    Festival
    L 4.10 – Last Goodbye on 4th run @ 20
    3m+
    L 2.25 – Oscar Knoght on 1st run @ 18
    …………The Gatechecker on 2nd run @ 25
    GL
    BOG for Dolos was 9/2 sp 4

  10. COLINS BETS
    Southwell
    1.00 Kodi Dream BOG 3/1
    3.50 Break The Silence BOG 7/2

    ELITE BETS
    Southwell
    2.45 Foolaad BOG 4/1
    2.45 Uncle Jerry BOG 17/2 365 9/1 BV 17/2
    Colin

  11. Hi all, my three TIPs for today.

    All at Southwell:

    13:35 FIRST EXCEL @ 5.5
    14:45 MIDNIGHT MALIBU @ 8.0
    15:20 SEA SEARCH @ 4.5

    G.L.
    Solent

  12. Hi, yesterday was hard. I had a few nice places and my lay on England in the cricket at 4/7 bailed me out (The odds setters in Cricket do not appear to be that good). It is nice and sunny in Kent and junior football has beaten the frost. Some of the children seem over dressed for football but I guess their mums consider them to be delicate little flowers? I grew up on a council estate in South London in the sixties and seventies and so I am a bit out of touch with what you wear to play football nowadays.

    Anyway, rant over (I may be sounding a bit like Chubnut?). No Comp tips or actual tips today.

    System selection – Karl Burke at Southwell – 1.00 Sylviacliffs for 2 points win at 9/2 but on the drift it seems.

    Enjoy the racing from Ireland.

    1. Haha, i remember those “Kes” days very well, we ran out on surfaces harder than concrete back then!! Only way there was a game off is if it was 6ft of snow and even then we would try and clear the pitch.. Happy days!!

    2. I have been sucked into the tipping competetion today:

      Tip 3 for Feb – 1.15 Leo, Gardens Of Babylon BFSP.
      Tip 4 for Feb – 4.10 Leo, Cubomania BFSP.

      I have had a bet as well, a Yankee in the bookies:

      1.00 Sou Sylviacliffs;
      1.35 Sou, Muatadel;
      2.45 Sou, Errimus Maximus;
      3.50 Sou, Alpha Tauri.

      Good luck.

    1. No mate. The only AW track I look at the moment is Newcastle so nothing for me given I feel you should be tipping in Ireland on a day to day basis to get stuck in the Festivals. Hopefully Taunton gets the go ahead tomorrow given it looks to be warmer today although they still had snow on the track this morning.

    2. He is likely giving himself a good talking to as he is not rocking it at present. Either that or he was on the pop last night?

      1. Touche my friend. I’ll post stats later but fairly sure I still beat your tips last month 😛 Just not quite enough places converted into wins but that’s part and parcel of the game and you get months like that.

        1. You beat me on tips but not on system selections I think???? Touche, Touche.

          It is a marathon and not a sprint anyway and as Del Boy would say ‘The creme de la creme always rises to the head of the beer Rodney’.

          Good luck.

  13. Harry Sandalls.
    Just an update for your dad for know myself the unknown can be a worry, today is the 8th day since the op and in my view going very well for not using the crutches to walk around home and walking with a slight limp(which will go in time when the muscles build up) although can put my weight on the left foot, the pain is now starting to subside and looking forward to seeing the physio on Thursday.
    The snow and ice have been a bonus for i know cannot go out, although would do so if i could and when i can obviously will take the crutches.
    Do not know how old or active your dad is but i am a very young 64 year old and my mind set is to recover as fast as i can, so after a week very happy with my progress.
    Colin.

    1. Hi Colin
      Thank you for keeping me updated , I really appreciate it & I am pleased you are doing so well
      My dad is a reasonably active 84 and fit & healthy. I am pleased the recovery time is so short I thought it may be longer, but I suppose it depends on your attitude, you seem really positive, I’m not sure my dad will be as committed as you. Can I ask are you able to get upstairs ok, and do things for yourself round the house to an extent?
      Thanks
      Harry

      1. Hi Harry
        Afraid will have keep quite with your dad being 84 and totally leave it to his Consultant, Nurses and Physio it is no good me saying to much for i am a different breed cannot wait to be back down town till 4 am Friday and Saturday, dancing the night away and the goal is 6 weeks or less, know more after appointment on Thursday with Physio.
        Through sport when young am very good with pain and yes looking after myself a friend Julie is popping in every two days, and others are popping in from time to time.
        The physio will not let him out unless he can walk up stairs but everyone is different, i had the ambulance to take me home for have 48 steps to climb to my front door, surprised they let me do it!! and totally knackered and in pain the next day and was a little worried that damage had been done, thankfully not.
        All the best to your dad sure he will be fine but let the professionals advice him.
        Colin.

  14. Both lost yesterday. Running total bets 2, won 0, -2.00.

    Southwell 1.35 Newstead Abbey is my tip today.

    2lb under last AW win over 6f, C&D winner, has been running over too far, decent claimer rides today.

  15. I had thought this would be a win only bet but Champagne Mondays 1pm Southwell has drifted out to 8’s on Bf.
    1pt e/w Champagne Mondays Southwell 1pm.
    Hugh

  16. Tipping Comp: RT 5 bets 2 wins .83 up don’t think I’ll be troubling the judge!

    3.20 South: Tynecastle Park

    Ruler of the Nile both 1 pt win.

    Good Luck to all.

    1. I’d of thought that puts you in the lead at the moment ! ..lol 🙂
      gl today

      gb 🙂
      p.s. 4th for the bird yesterday .. no good at all ..things can only get better ? 🙂

      1. I was chuffed G as I backed it to four places without realising! Done yours today and mine EW tho tipped as win only. Any chance you can translate your embryonic system into plain English, and is it any trainer listed with any jockey listed or set combos? All the best

        1. HI MARK, yep i had nice return for 4th 🙂 ………… so do you have the “hrb system” old bean 🙂 ?
          gb 🙂

          1. No G, don’t have HRB, just like to better understand your cut and paste 🙂

            BTW, the Curtis profit pile 🙂 stands at 3.83, mistyped earlier. Be lighting cigars with tenners soon 🙂

  17. Comp TIPS Feb
    Update 1/10 3p…-4pts
    Todays sel
    100 S…Kodi Dream
    Champagne Mondays
    245 S…Crosse Fire
    320 S…Contingency Fee
    440 L…Rebel og
    410 L…De Name Escapes me
    300 L…Mortal

    Mike

  18. Ken’s Tips

    Southwell
    1.00 Champagne Mondays 13/2
    1.35 First Excel 9/2
    2.45 Foolaad 4/1
    3.50 Luath 8/1

    Good Luck

    1. Tim, sorry if this is a stupid question but if 9.0 is available do you suggest taking it or rely purely on BFSP.

      Is it suggested to set it at ‘9.0’?

      Im looking to set it via the android app but cant work it out. Any clues?

      1. Never tried to bet using my phone, always take a laptop if I know I’m going to be away for some time, or put them on to BFSP here on the desk if it’s just for the odd bet.

  19. I’ve had a few quid each way on Kommander kirkup 1.35 who’s price has drifted to silliness. There will probably be a punch up behind the leader first excel and kirkup has as good a chance as any. Its always worth taking on new comers at Southwell as its a quirky track. Check the sire stats first.

  20. Well – back in after good day out for Wife’s birthday. 2 months completed and after another total wipeout – 20 bets all lost Saturday and Sunday (if you include the Place part of each way bets)This despite generally cutting back. Never had so many Losers in my life, but bizarrely i know i m in the right place with this Site. In that difficult place now where pondering on whether to cut right back – and maybe just do a couple of approaches including Nicks. Problem is always Mr Sod because will that mean the ones i drop will improve greatly and will i put the mockers on those i focus on following. I knew RtoP would be different that’s for sure! So looking forward to when the purple patch arrives and i ll be glad of the advice for Big Banks and small stakes having kept me in the game. Still trying to understand some of Chubnuts comments – certainly interesting but ‘whats the crack’ on an apparent dislike of the concept of a ‘Bank’ ? Thank you everyone for all the encouragement in my first 2 months. 🙂

    1. Hi John
      You cannot please people all the time pleased that you took note and applied common sense, sorry for you that you join at a very poor time on the bet front surely we are unable to get worse!!!
      Colin.

      1. Thanks Colin, appreciate your comment. The ‘surely it can’t get worse’ was pretty much what i was thinking 🙂 Hope all is healing well for you and you are in good spirits, John

        1. That does sound like a lot of bets John, and maybe you are following too many strategies I don’t know.
          It was certainly a mixed month from me, well, the daily tipping was awful and is still on a poor run from their high. As always it’s timing, if you started following those before 12th December say, then it’s fine. If however it was from when they hit their high, or 30+, then yep that’s been painful.
          S1/S3A# is around +17 for month on morning odds, S2A not too much of a loss EW, W1 is a concern, that was a -20 month.
          Nick was +5 or so for month.
          The big race/free is -3 or so for 2019.
          So, yea, it hasn’t been great in truth on that front, but at least from those mentioned above anyway, while bad, it hasn’t been terminal.
          It will all turn 🙂

    2. John, you answered the question yourself by stating you’ve already cut back on stakes within weeks and are now thinking of ditching certain followings. The concept of a bank is perfectly viable but in reality, just as 90% plus bettors eventually lose, something will probably derail the whole plan.

      1. Yep. I think the key, or one element, is to start with a smaller portfolio, and in theory build up with more if you wish, or change more gradually over time, removing any weak links, adding in stronger. rather than starting with too many and then chopping back etc. I don’t like too many bets a day personally, but some people do.

        1. Hi Josh analysing it included with S1, S2A and S3A# were both W1 and your ‘Best of Jumps stats qualifiers’ which i started with perfect timing – right at their Peak (now you know the reason for the slide ha ha 🙂 As does Colin – his worst January! Sadly those 3 really have been the main I clearly won’t be missing Nicks and have picked up your previous comments re S1 and S3A #. I will ponder as i realise that you did say at the start not to have too many on the go – you were right there. Thanks for your input, John

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