Free Daily Post: 02/02/19 (Tipsx2)

3.35 Sand tips x2 + write ups

Free Tips

3.35 Sandown

Belami Des Pictons – 1 point win – 5/1 (betfred) 9/2 (bet365) 4/1 (gen)

Ami Desbois – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen)

as of 17.35, write ups to follow in due course. That will be all on the free post on Sat.

 

Belami Des Pictons – I do think this race could be all about whether this one is fit and if he puts in a fluent round of jumping. If he’s here to run his race I think he may make 4s+ look fairly big come the business end. Venetia continues in good form and indeed trainer/jockey are 6/16,10p in the last 30 days, 3/7,4p in the last 14. She is 4/9,6p since the start of 2014 with handicap chasers in class 1-3, over 3m+, returning after 300+ days and we all know she can ready them. This one was meant to run at Ascot in the race Cyrname won, and he was well backed there before being withdrawn. I’m not sure what the reason was, but they may have avoided one there and this is a weaker race than that, and over his preferred trip I think. He’s unexposed over fences and in handicap chases and i’ve no doubt he’ll prove himself to be much better than 146, hopefully starting with this race. A 2 1/2 length defeat behind Waiting Patiently in Nov 17 looks quite good now. In that Warwick novice chase over 24f in heavy he made a bunch of 130s animals look like trees, winning hard held. He is the most exciting horse in this. I think he’ll be fit and I think he’s the one to beat, and that he could still be over-priced. He should race prominently, has big field chase experience, and should go well.

Ami Desbois – if he fluffs his lines, or even if he doesn’t, hopefully this one can pick up the pieces and see him off, given the odds. He’s also unexposed over fences, and in handicaps, and is well handicapped against some of his better form, especially over hurdles. He is a decent animal and appears to be getting better over fences. His run two starts ago was effectively his first of the season and he ran a decent race for a long way. The Chepstow winner would frank the form in the Welsh National, giving Elegant Escape plenty to think about. At Haydock he cruised into contention, having possibly done too much on the front end, but in any case he ran like a non stayer over 27f there. This looks more his trip, he’s a slogger, a trier and won’t mind if this is hard work. He also races prominently and should be in the right spot. The one question is how will he handle going right handed. It’s his first go this way round and that could just be circumstances, and nothing more. He jumps straight enough but we will find out soon enough whether he ‘must’ go left handed. I thought that risk was built into his price. He should show himself to be well handicapped over fences at some point, and looked interesting at double figure odds for his in-form trainer. He’s 3/8,4p in the last 14 days, and 3/5,4p with Kielan Woods riding. Hopefully they can add to those stats. If he jumps the first few fine, I don’t think he will be out of the places.

I was happy to leave the others for one reason or another. I suppose at prices I though Kilcrea Vale and Kayf Adventure looked of some interest but I ended up discounting them for various reasons.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. Hi,

    I dont know what the plan is at Sandown, but it is snowing in the South East now. The temperature seems to be staying above zero overnight they are saying.

  2. So if Sandown is on:

    Feb competition tips:
    1. 1.15 SP Azzuri and 2. 3.00 SP Virginia Chick. Both at BFSP.

    As Tips:
    1.15 SP Azzurri, 8/1 x 1 points each way. An interesting Irish import for the Skeltons. Won 4/8 chases and at age 7 is still improving.
    3.00 SP Virginia Chick, 12/1 x 1 point each way. Won well LTO. Low weight. The underrated Isobel Williams on board. The horse is 5/12 over hurdles.

    Systems selections:

    3.00 SP Flemcara (Emma Lavelle handicapper up to 3 miles), 12/1 x 1 point each way.

    Good luck.

  3. Hi,

    I dont know what the plan is at Sandown, but it is snowing in the South East now. The temperature seems to be staying above zero overnight they are saying.

  4. So if Sandown is on:

    Feb competition tips:
    1. 1.15 SP Azzuri and 2. 3.00 SP Virginia Chick. Both at BFSP.

    As Tips:
    1.15 SP Azzurri, 8/1 x 1 points each way. An interesting Irish import for the Skeltons. Won 4/8 chases and at age 7 is still improving.
    3.00 SP Virginia Chick, 12/1 x 1 point each way. Won well LTO. Low weight. The underrated Isobel Williams on board. The horse is 5/12 over hurdles.

    Systems selections:

    3.00 SP Flemcara (Emma Lavelle handicapper up to 3 miles), 12/1 x 1 point each way.

    Good luck.

  5. back with a few picks today,been woefully out of form lately everything back of the telly job.so it will be small ew plays from me today

    leopardstown
    2.00 tudor city 6p 12/1
    jetez 12/1
    3.45 duca de thaix 11/1
    4.20 minds eye 4p 13/2

    sandown
    1.15 copain de classe 8/1
    dolos 5/1
    3.00 ballymoy 5p 7/1
    flemcara 11/1
    3.35 rolling Dylan 5p 14/1
    sandy beach 16/1
    4.10 juge et parti 8/1

    good luck to all today,imgoing to need it for sure

  6. AW
    C 3.20 – Dynamo Walt @ 11/2
    C 3.55 – Dutch Uncle @ 7/2
    K 7.45 – Ilhabela Fact @ 2

    info/test
    C 1.35 – Cape Greco @ 4
    C 2.45 – Farol @ 12
    L 4.05 – Murray River @ 11/4
    K 5.45 – Zaula @ 7
    K 6.45 – Divne Messenger @ 8
    K 8.15 – Beau Knight @ 50

  7. I’ve bought Sandown Favourites at 79
    Also two jockey performances
    B.Geraghty/Sandown at 40
    N.DeBoinville/Sandown at 13.75

    No prices at Kempton yet and have a jockey there too so will be back later with at least one more bet.Chelmsford very tight at the moment as I make it 73.93 and it’s 74 to buy so maybe more?

    Tony

  8. A lots been going wrong with them lately Johnny……..!
    Here’s hoping for an upward curve today………have R.Havlin marked up for Kempton (3rides) tonight too……. but still waiting for prices!

    Tony

  9. back with a few picks today,been woefully out of form lately everything back of the telly job.so it will be small ew plays from me today

    leopardstown
    2.00 tudor city 6p 12/1
    jetez 12/1
    3.45 duca de thaix 11/1
    4.20 minds eye 4p 13/2

    sandown
    1.15 copain de classe 8/1
    dolos 5/1
    3.00 ballymoy 5p 7/1
    flemcara 11/1
    3.35 rolling Dylan 5p 14/1
    sandy beach 16/1
    4.10 juge et parti 8/1

    good luck to all today,imgoing to need it for sure

  10. AW
    C 3.20 – Dynamo Walt @ 11/2
    C 3.55 – Dutch Uncle @ 7/2
    K 7.45 – Ilhabela Fact @ 2

    info/test
    C 1.35 – Cape Greco @ 4
    C 2.45 – Farol @ 12
    L 4.05 – Murray River @ 11/4
    K 5.45 – Zaula @ 7
    K 6.45 – Divne Messenger @ 8
    K 8.15 – Beau Knight @ 50

  11. I’ve bought Sandown Favourites at 79
    Also two jockey performances
    B.Geraghty/Sandown at 40
    N.DeBoinville/Sandown at 13.75

    No prices at Kempton yet and have a jockey there too so will be back later with at least one more bet.Chelmsford very tight at the moment as I make it 73.93 and it’s 74 to buy so maybe more?

    Tony

    1. Geraghty look about right at 40 and I thought Nico was the value there?

      I made Sandown favourites about 70 and so I think I would sell if forced to have a go.

    1. Have to say that buying jockey performance when they have 2/3 rides has not been a happy experience to date Tony, but as you say it’s a learning curve. Had a go at Nico at 12.5, 2 novice hurdlers on which he excels and one of Nick (Mazur’s) tips – what could go wrong ?!

  12. A lots been going wrong with them lately Johnny……..!
    Here’s hoping for an upward curve today………have R.Havlin marked up for Kempton (3rides) tonight too……. but still waiting for prices!

    Tony

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