Members Daily Post: 01/02/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

NONE, both meetings Abandoned. 

*

KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -5.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/9,2p, -1)

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/151,67p, +3.8, 1 point win)

 

Nothing today 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW x1 : Saturday… Sandown stats/trends if it survives: HERE>>>

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NEW x2: 

JAN RESULTS…

I’ll get mine updated asap, by close of play Tuesday next week, for tips + strategies + bring all the links in the Key up to date. Tipping wise it’s a month i’ll try and forget pretty quickly.

YOUR results… for the regular’s out there who post/tip, etc, if you’d be so kind to post a comment with your Jan figures/year to date, that would be great 🙂 Remember this can be a simple P/L to the prices you obtain when posting etc.

Solent – he posted his results yesterday, from when he started posting more regularly on 12th Jan… a very good month by all accounts, especially compared to some of us… (me)…

8/42, 17p
+15.65 PTS
20.50% S/R
37.27% R.O.I.

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NEW x3: 

Monthly Competition – Your chance to win £50 in cash, EVERY month. 

I thought it was about time I rewarded those of you who contributed regularly to the comments and I thought a monthly ‘tipping’ competition may be the way forward. Now, in time, I hope to get some ‘tipping league’ software set up within the blog, but that won’t be anytime soon, for various reasons. 

 

The RULES

  • A minimum of 20 ‘tips’ per month (horses only!)
  • Tips recorded to 1 point win
  • Tips recorded to Betfair Starting Price (excluding commission deductions)
  • Tips posted in the comments as now, and clearly marked as a ‘tip’ 🙂
  • The winner – whoever has the Biggest positive Return On Investment %
  • The prize: £50 to the winner. (if there’s ever joint winners the prize will be split)
  • I have the final say on everything.

 

This is meant to be a bit of fun, and not much faff at all, either for you or me.

…But for those of you who wish to enter, those are the rules.

Recording results is down to you, as is posting your monthly figure come month end/start of next month, in the comments. Many of you keep a record anyway, so it will just be a case of also keeping them in line with the rules above. This isn’t meant to add to my workload, and it won’t work if it does, and is mainly based on trusting you to follow the above, if you so wish to ‘enter’.

For example, Solent above, would simply find out the BFSP of his 8 winners, and adjust the results accordingly. Easy. 🙂

In reality this competition is aimed at around 8 to 10 of you who I would call regular ‘tipsters’, but maybe some more may start chipping in. Do still keep results as you do now, and the prices you get etc, but if you wish to be in with a chance of winning the £50 monthly cash prize, you just have to keep results in line with the above rules also.

From time to time there will be a discretionary £20 cash prizes for my ‘contributor (s) ‘ of the month, which is not restricted just to tipping content, and is what I deem to be a positive contribution to the community, including from non-regular contributors. This can also cover ‘tipping’ results to ‘advised prices’ , (so they are worth recording) but it’s hard to do a monthly competition on that basis.

In truth I only had this idea this afternoon, and you may think it’s rubbish. But we shall see how it goes. It’s not meant to be a serious endeavour nor change the existing ‘feel’ in the comments, and if it does that i’ll just stop doing it.

The first month’s competition starts TODAY, 1st Feb 🙂 

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How to find BFSP?

Apparently you can find BFSP on Attheraces website, without needing to register, or…

…the timeform website here>>> https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/results/today

You just need to register a free account. EG a 8.00 winner is  +7 points profit, to 1 point win. Easy.

Best of luck,

Josh

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

131 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Colins Bets results worst January that i can remember SP -26.87 BOG – 19.40

    Elite Bets results SP + 14.38 BOG + 26.05

    Golf Bets results + 37.8 Disrupted January through hospital 6 bets 2 wins 10/1, 14/1 and 2nd at 40/1

    And a new month starts
    Colin

    cleafe 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


    • Other things on your mind Colin, speedy recovery fella, you`ll be up breakdancing before the Cheltenham festival… 🙂

      Stewart 12/08/19 5:05 AM Reply


  • Evening,

    My records for January , even after all the losers I did not do too bad, couldn`t remember my overall, think it was +2pts at early prices I will find it and record accordingly.
    Anyways January

    26 bets 4 winners + 0.75pts at SP + 11.5pts at Early/posted prices.

    It`s a bumpy ride with me, but, profit is but a winner away!!? haha.

    Stewart 11/08/19 5:28 PM Reply


    • There we go, can update running total since beginning of NH season proper.
      116 selections
      20 winners
      at sp not bfsp + 4.75 pts
      at advised / early prices + 55.5 pts
      ROI 47%

      Not bad going that, thought i was worse off and some of the losing runs have been hard to take, but, overall not doing too bad. I follow Nick and Josh blind also, so, as i do Nicks win only, may have to re-asses that angle and Josh ain`t doing too great, (he will pick up again as i know that brain of his keeps whirring even when he is asleep), would like to know what the stats are when me , Nick, Josh and maybe a couple of the others all pick the same one? Think it is definitely time to “Get on!!”.

      Stewart 11/08/19 5:28 PM Reply


  • These are approximate based on quick check on HRB:

    HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    13 bets, +3.94 to 10am prices with BOG, +3.47 BFSP

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    29 bets, 39 points staked, +30.58 to 10am prices with BOG, +33.42 BFSP

    Francis 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


  • Nothing from me tomorrow

    Nick Mazur 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


  • This may be totally pointless but I had a look through the field for the hcp hurdle on Saturday using another set of stats (not yours Josh, sorry)
    I narrowed the field down to 4 runners
    Coole Cody (too long in odds, dismissed)
    The Hollow Ginge 16/1
    Flemcara 12/1
    Virginia Chick 12/1
    For me the strongest stats I used were:
    OR129 or higher
    4 runs or more over hurdles & at least 2 wins over hurdles
    Ran at least twice over 22f -24f (current jt favs fail this, Ballymoy & Lord Napier)
    I’ve dutched the 3 above.

    gallou 11/08/19 5:28 PM Reply


  • I posted my January results up on Thursdays post.

    The only best I have for Friday is 1.30 Wolverhampton, Swiss Cross, 3/1 BOG for 1 point win.

    I may put up a Tip later.

    No system selections.

    martin colwell 11/08/19 5:28 PM Reply


    • Martin someone the other day said that i was a brave man on one of my bets and have to say you must be too, first of all 12 yo Swiss Cross been a good friend to me over the years however could not back him at 3/1 for the last time he won a 7 furlong race was on 26/10/16 and 45 races ago, he has won over 6 furlongs in that time.
      Mark Ushers quote on 9yo Black Truffle, Has an excellent chance if we can get out of the village! not looked into Black Truffle for will not be backing him either.
      Hope Swiss Cross wins for you.
      Colin.

      cleafe 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


  • Colins Bets results worst January that i can remember SP -26.87 BOG – 19.40

    Elite Bets results SP + 14.38 BOG + 26.05

    Golf Bets results + 37.8 Disrupted January through hospital 6 bets 2 wins 10/1, 14/1 and 2nd at 40/1

    And a new month starts
    Colin

    cleafe 31/01/19 6:42 PM Reply


    • Other things on your mind Colin, speedy recovery fella, you`ll be up breakdancing before the Cheltenham festival… 🙂

      Stewart 31/01/19 7:55 PM Reply


  • Evening,

    My records for January , even after all the losers I did not do too bad, couldn`t remember my overall, think it was +2pts at early prices I will find it and record accordingly.
    Anyways January

    26 bets 4 winners + 0.75pts at SP + 11.5pts at Early/posted prices.

    It`s a bumpy ride with me, but, profit is but a winner away!!? haha.

    Stewart 31/01/19 7:52 PM Reply


    • There we go, can update running total since beginning of NH season proper.
      116 selections
      20 winners
      at sp not bfsp + 4.75 pts
      at advised / early prices + 55.5 pts
      ROI 47%

      Not bad going that, thought i was worse off and some of the losing runs have been hard to take, but, overall not doing too bad. I follow Nick and Josh blind also, so, as i do Nicks win only, may have to re-asses that angle and Josh ain`t doing too great, (he will pick up again as i know that brain of his keeps whirring even when he is asleep), would like to know what the stats are when me , Nick, Josh and maybe a couple of the others all pick the same one? Think it is definitely time to “Get on!!”.

      Stewart 01/02/19 7:00 AM Reply


  • January results .
    staked 53 pts, returns 30.2 pts, loss of 22.8 pts.

    and after today’s debacle no more AW insanity lesson learnt leave alone what you know sod all about but looking at January’s figures i don’t know much about turf either 🙂

    martin whittle 11/08/19 5:28 PM Reply


  • These are approximate based on quick check on HRB:

    HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    13 bets, +3.94 to 10am prices with BOG, +3.47 BFSP

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    29 bets, 39 points staked, +30.58 to 10am prices with BOG, +33.42 BFSP

    Francis 31/01/19 8:05 PM Reply


  • Nothing from me tomorrow

    Nick Mazur 31/01/19 8:38 PM Reply


  • This may be totally pointless but I had a look through the field for the hcp hurdle on Saturday using another set of stats (not yours Josh, sorry)
    I narrowed the field down to 4 runners
    Coole Cody (too long in odds, dismissed)
    The Hollow Ginge 16/1
    Flemcara 12/1
    Virginia Chick 12/1
    For me the strongest stats I used were:
    OR129 or higher
    4 runs or more over hurdles & at least 2 wins over hurdles
    Ran at least twice over 22f -24f (current jt favs fail this, Ballymoy & Lord Napier)
    I’ve dutched the 3 above.

    gallou 31/01/19 9:22 PM Reply


  • 18.45 Newcastle La Cumparsita 1pt win. Tristan Davidson does really well with his Irish imports. I took 16/1 last night – still some 10/1 around, but they do tend to be well backed.

    Andy N 11/08/19 5:28 PM Reply


    • 19.45 Newcastle Melo Pearl 1pt ew – currently 33/1. Another trainer change and a potentially well handicapped horse who has been running in decent races. Paddy Mathers’ only ride at the meeting.

      Also 1pt ew double with La Cumparsita.

      Andy N 12/08/19 5:05 AM Reply


  • I posted my January results up on Thursdays post.

    The only best I have for Friday is 1.30 Wolverhampton, Swiss Cross, 3/1 BOG for 1 point win.

    I may put up a Tip later.

    No system selections.

    martin colwell 31/01/19 10:03 PM Reply


    • Martin someone the other day said that i was a brave man on one of my bets and have to say you must be too, first of all 12 yo Swiss Cross been a good friend to me over the years however could not back him at 3/1 for the last time he won a 7 furlong race was on 26/10/16 and 45 races ago, he has won over 6 furlongs in that time.
      Mark Ushers quote on 9yo Black Truffle, Has an excellent chance if we can get out of the village! not looked into Black Truffle for will not be backing him either.
      Hope Swiss Cross wins for you.
      Colin.

      cleafe 01/02/19 10:51 AM Reply


      • I am driven by my spreadsheet and its graph re who to follow. Stat Of The Day on Geegeez is just ‘above the line’ and so I am duty driven to get on. I agree with your comments but my ‘system’ has worked in past years and so I have to stick with it.

        martin colwell 01/02/19 11:22 AM Reply


        • Agree with you Martin when stats driven you have to have them, Mike could be not a happy chap later over the three horse race for many over the years say back the outsider in a three horse race and by opposing his system because of price could prove costly in time for maybe not today but another day 25/30 points will be lost when one comes in.
          Only looked at Swiss Cross because he fitted my starting point of my method but age is a put off for me odd one wins but not that many.
          Chaplins Club and Glencroft were a couple of oldies
          which always ran well for David Chapman he could train the oldies and always look at his granddaughters sprinters, Ruth Carr who like David can get them ready at a price.
          Colin

          cleafe 01/02/19 12:06 PM Reply


  • Gonna give tipping a try

    Mine for tomorrow (All tips)

    4:10 W High Acclaim
    4:10 W Apache Blaze
    4:10 W Captain Pugwash

    4:40 W Pot Luck
    4:40 W Gate City

    7:45 N I am Dandy
    7:45 N Dodgy Bob

    5:00 D Eastern Racer

    7:30 D Masalai
    7:30 D Latchet

    Staked total – 10 points return 0 Profit – na

    utsav_killa 11/08/19 5:28 PM Reply


    • Gonna add

      1:00 W Ainne
      1:00 W Taasaboq

      utsav_killa 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


  • Ok ok, you tempted me in Josh.

    I’ll try to meet the minimum requirements for ‘tips’ and I already keep record of all bets across the various services here and elsewhere. I’ll post an update later on. Anyway, tip number 1:

    Lee 11/08/19 5:28 PM Reply


  • January results .
    staked 53 pts, returns 30.2 pts, loss of 22.8 pts.

    and after today’s debacle no more AW insanity lesson learnt leave alone what you know sod all about but looking at January’s figures i don’t know much about turf either 🙂

    martin whittle 01/02/19 12:59 AM Reply


  • 18.45 Newcastle La Cumparsita 1pt win. Tristan Davidson does really well with his Irish imports. I took 16/1 last night – still some 10/1 around, but they do tend to be well backed.

    Andy N 01/02/19 2:30 AM Reply


    • 19.45 Newcastle Melo Pearl 1pt ew – currently 33/1. Another trainer change and a potentially well handicapped horse who has been running in decent races. Paddy Mathers’ only ride at the meeting.

      Also 1pt ew double with La Cumparsita.

      Andy N 01/02/19 3:16 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Do we need to provide reasoning for the tips or just post them? I might give it a bash myself.

    Also just to note, BFSP can be found on ATR website without registering.

    Joe H

    Joe H 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


    • Hi Joe. Nope you can just post them. I do like reading reasoning, especially from those I don’t follow religiously as it can make me take a closer look and have a go myself haha. And I like reading how others think but clearly life can get in the way and this isn’t meant to be onorous. However an occasional write up, if only brief, is always a bonus. Josh

      Josh 12/08/19 3:09 AM Reply


  • nothing today.

    martin whittle 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


  • Well done to all those who managed to turn any kind of profit for January. Absolute pig of a month, especially for a newbie – but onwards and upwards! Can’t resist having a tilt at the tipping competition and first attempt in post below.

    John Unitt 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


  • TIPS for today;
    13.45 Lingfield – Indiscretion
    16:10 Wolverhampton -Tangramm
    17:00 Dundalk – Amanaat.

    John Unitt 12/08/19 2:29 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS…….None

    Titus 12/08/19 3:09 AM Reply


  • Another into the pot

    W 1.00 – Ainne @ 9’s presently, assuming going on the slow side and drop in trip will suit this digger.
    Mike

    Titus 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


  • TIP: Stargazer 3:25 Lingfield. Model of consistency. Should see this lot off if handling the track.

    Mick 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


  • Final results for January for me were…..
    8W 37L (17.77%SR) +76.2 (169.33% ROI)

    Looking back at last year it was downhill some for Feb’ and March mainly due to the frequency of bets dropping as the season wore on. So is not certain by any means that I will end up in front at month end. Also Nick has a habit of throwing a big one in now and again which at BFSP can be enormous. He had a 32.95 BFSP (16/1 ISP), winner this time last year. So I’m expecting it to be very competitive especially when the quality large field handicap races get underway. Not that I’ll be putting any up. Is far too many possibilities for my methods to deal with. Organised chaos would probably be a better description.

    Back about 12.30 with today’s.

    Tim Hanson 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


  • Gonna give tipping a try

    Mine for tomorrow (All tips)

    4:10 W High Acclaim
    4:10 W Apache Blaze
    4:10 W Captain Pugwash

    4:40 W Pot Luck
    4:40 W Gate City

    7:45 N I am Dandy
    7:45 N Dodgy Bob

    5:00 D Eastern Racer

    7:30 D Masalai
    7:30 D Latchet

    Staked total – 10 points return 0 Profit – na

    utsav_killa 01/02/19 5:02 AM Reply


    • Gonna add

      1:00 W Ainne
      1:00 W Taasaboq

      utsav_killa 01/02/19 8:42 AM Reply


      • all additions will be tips as well

        utsav_killa 01/02/19 8:43 AM Reply


  • Tip-Kodi Dream 5.15 Newcastle
    Not really a race i would bet in with most of the trainers among the winners last 14 days
    Roger Fell has hit a bit of form recently
    3yo’s are profitable area for trainer here

    gearoid180468 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


    • well done Gearoid, just pipping Tim’s selection

      Linda 12/08/19 3:19 AM Reply


  • Probert’s book of rides is interesting enough to have lured me into following him in doubles and trebles to small stakes on a pretty tricky day by all accounts.

    Max H 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


    • WELL DONE 🙂

      GEORGE B 12/08/19 3:19 AM Reply


      • Thanks. 33/1 and 4/5 winners. Bit annoying with NRs at 13/8 and 5s though!

        Max H 12/08/19 4:19 AM Reply


  • Josh
    I’m having a bash at your comp, usually, after a week or two I give up. The regular tipsters will have nothing to fear.

    Tips
    800 D Indiana Grey
    Made up ground after a very slow start lto and its only time out.
    5.45 Nc Elixsoft
    A Callum Rodriguez mount, I will ignore the 3 runner one he is riding in.

    Mike

    mickeydee 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


  • Ok ok, you tempted me in Josh.

    I’ll try to meet the minimum requirements for ‘tips’ and I already keep record of all bets across the various services here and elsewhere. I’ll post an update later on. Anyway, tip number 1:

    Lee 01/02/19 5:19 AM Reply


    • Oops, I hit the button prematurely there

      16:15 Newcastle – Desert Ruler. Jedd O’Keeffe appears to have his string in good order and stuck on the all weather yesterday. Desert Ruler is a 2 time winner here at Newcastle and Jedd can get them straight after a break, and the trainer has a good record on the all weather here.

      Lee 01/02/19 5:22 AM Reply


  • Feel a bit nervous – first bet after being on here for about 18 months, things you do for £50!! So my tip is Delicate Kiss 1.45 Lingfield
    Positives – has done well last 3 runs at Lingield, 2 2nds & a 1st now dropped down to 1m, down in weight
    Negatives – trainer & jockey not in form and upped in class.
    We shall see
    Good luck everybody and may the best person win!!
    Colin, hope you doing well, my dad is booked in for March 26th so would be interested in progress. Take care
    Harry

    Harry Sandells 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


  • NEW!

    I’ve added the Ladbroke handicap hurdle at Leop into the stats/trends mix tomorrow, and on paper it’s one of the strongest against my approach, we shall see if the various 10/10 stats point to anything…

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Saturday-Big-Race-Trends-02.02.19-no.2.pdf

    Josh

    Josh 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


  • count me in for your competition Josh, i’ll post any tips in a seperate post to my selections. there’s a few i like at Sandown and Leopardstown tomorrow so fingers crossed at least one of them goes ahead.

    martin whittle 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


  • OK Josh, you’ve tempted me in too.

    First tip is very speculative.

    Newcastle 7.45 Dream Ally. C&D winner, well drawn, well in at the weights. Slight negative, trainer’s last winner was this one last April.

    Chris Murrell 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


    • Would appear the carrot was big enough haha. Best of luck! 🙂

      Josh 12/08/19 4:19 AM Reply


  • Hi all, delved into the AW for my three today.

    All 1 Pt win TIPS

    LINGFIELD 13:45 INDISCRETION @ 4.5
    WOLVES 16:10 TANGRAMM @ 10.0
    NEWCASTLE 17:15 SPIRIT KINGDOM @ 8.8

    All BOG
    G.L. Solent

    SOLENT 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Do we need to provide reasoning for the tips or just post them? I might give it a bash myself.

    Also just to note, BFSP can be found on ATR website without registering.

    Joe H

    Joe H 01/02/19 7:56 AM Reply


    • Hi Joe. Nope you can just post them. I do like reading reasoning, especially from those I don’t follow religiously as it can make me take a closer look and have a go myself haha. And I like reading how others think but clearly life can get in the way and this isn’t meant to be onorous. However an occasional write up, if only brief, is always a bonus. Josh

      Josh 01/02/19 9:02 AM Reply


  • nothing today.

    martin whittle 01/02/19 8:19 AM Reply


  • Well done to all those who managed to turn any kind of profit for January. Absolute pig of a month, especially for a newbie – but onwards and upwards! Can’t resist having a tilt at the tipping competition and first attempt in post below.

    John Unitt 01/02/19 8:21 AM Reply


  • TIPS for today;
    13.45 Lingfield – Indiscretion
    16:10 Wolverhampton -Tangramm
    17:00 Dundalk – Amanaat.

    John Unitt 01/02/19 8:23 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS…….None

    Titus 01/02/19 8:26 AM Reply


  • Another into the pot

    W 1.00 – Ainne @ 9’s presently, assuming going on the slow side and drop in trip will suit this digger.
    Mike

    Titus 01/02/19 8:34 AM Reply


    • Is a non runner, had my eye on it too.

      Tim Hanson 01/02/19 10:00 AM Reply


  • TIP: Stargazer 3:25 Lingfield. Model of consistency. Should see this lot off if handling the track.

    Mick 01/02/19 8:43 AM Reply


  • Final results for January for me were…..
    8W 37L (17.77%SR) +76.2 (169.33% ROI)

    Looking back at last year it was downhill some for Feb’ and March mainly due to the frequency of bets dropping as the season wore on. So is not certain by any means that I will end up in front at month end. Also Nick has a habit of throwing a big one in now and again which at BFSP can be enormous. He had a 32.95 BFSP (16/1 ISP), winner this time last year. So I’m expecting it to be very competitive especially when the quality large field handicap races get underway. Not that I’ll be putting any up. Is far too many possibilities for my methods to deal with. Organised chaos would probably be a better description.

    Back about 12.30 with today’s.

    Tim Hanson 01/02/19 9:47 AM Reply


    • Great stuff Tim, and apols for not starting this at the start of Jan!

      Josh 01/02/19 11:29 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Will be a later update at 4pm with the conditions for traveling will their be N/Rs at Newcastle?

    ELITE BETS
    No bet today
    Colin

    cleafe 01/02/19 9:56 AM Reply


  • Tip-Kodi Dream 5.15 Newcastle
    Not really a race i would bet in with most of the trainers among the winners last 14 days
    Roger Fell has hit a bit of form recently
    3yo’s are profitable area for trainer here

    gearoid180468 01/02/19 10:06 AM Reply


    • well done Gearoid, just pipping Tim’s selection

      Linda 01/02/19 5:24 PM Reply


  • Here goes from another one out of the woodwork:

    Apache Blaze 4.10 Wolver 12/1 .

    I give best price I can get as opposed to best price available.

    bogsnorkeler 12/08/19 3:19 AM Reply


  • Probert’s book of rides is interesting enough to have lured me into following him in doubles and trebles to small stakes on a pretty tricky day by all accounts.

    Max H 01/02/19 10:13 AM Reply


    • WELL DONE 🙂

      GEORGE B 01/02/19 4:41 PM Reply


      • Thanks. 33/1 and 4/5 winners. Bit annoying with NRs at 13/8 and 5s though!

        Max H 01/02/19 6:33 PM Reply


  • Josh
    I’m having a bash at your comp, usually, after a week or two I give up. The regular tipsters will have nothing to fear.

    Tips
    800 D Indiana Grey
    Made up ground after a very slow start lto and its only time out.
    5.45 Nc Elixsoft
    A Callum Rodriguez mount, I will ignore the 3 runner one he is riding in.

    Mike

    mickeydee 01/02/19 10:14 AM Reply


    • O dear Mike all know what will happen now 1 winner only in the three runner race!!! writings on the wall.
      Cheers
      Colin

      cleafe 01/02/19 10:22 AM Reply


      • Colin.. Ha ha, hope not but it looks a real outsider against 2 short priced ones. We wait with bated breath.

        Mike

        mickeydee 01/02/19 10:48 AM Reply


  • Feel a bit nervous – first bet after being on here for about 18 months, things you do for £50!! So my tip is Delicate Kiss 1.45 Lingfield
    Positives – has done well last 3 runs at Lingield, 2 2nds & a 1st now dropped down to 1m, down in weight
    Negatives – trainer & jockey not in form and upped in class.
    We shall see
    Good luck everybody and may the best person win!!
    Colin, hope you doing well, my dad is booked in for March 26th so would be interested in progress. Take care
    Harry

    Harry Sandells 01/02/19 10:40 AM Reply


    • Ha, nothing to be nervous about Harry, have you seen my tipping recently!!! 🙂 No one is going to have a go at you etc if the wheels fall off. With any luck there will be a variety of different winners over time. It’s only a bit of fun.

      Josh 01/02/19 10:45 AM Reply


    • Hi Harry
      Mental attitude is a major ingredient for recovery and do i want to get out and about asap, for myself everything so far gone very well, did start coming around in the operating theatre and could hear the bone saw being used and boy did they then knock me out!! Do not tell your dad this.
      Had very little physio in comparison to some only had about 30 mins for adapted to the crutches in a couple of mins and did not use the walking frame at all and Dr Sharma told me that could go home in the morning and i said that i had not done the stair test yet and his reply was will not bother you and you will have no problem in the morning doing the test.
      There is pain after the op and everyone handles it differently to say it is only 5 days since the op leg bending well so far and feel my progress is pretty well advanced, all the staff were outstanding and four of them use the same haunts has me down town all in all a fantastic experience but painful.

      Week today see the physio for an update will be interesting to see what they have to say.
      Your dad will be fine, go in with a positive mind for it will only improve his quality of life that certainly is my aim.
      Colin

      cleafe 01/02/19 2:21 PM Reply


  • NEW!

    I’ve added the Ladbroke handicap hurdle at Leop into the stats/trends mix tomorrow, and on paper it’s one of the strongest against my approach, we shall see if the various 10/10 stats point to anything…

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Saturday-Big-Race-Trends-02.02.19-no.2.pdf

    Josh

    Josh 01/02/19 11:19 AM Reply


  • count me in for your competition Josh, i’ll post any tips in a seperate post to my selections. there’s a few i like at Sandown and Leopardstown tomorrow so fingers crossed at least one of them goes ahead.

    martin whittle 01/02/19 11:28 AM Reply


  • OK Josh, you’ve tempted me in too.

    First tip is very speculative.

    Newcastle 7.45 Dream Ally. C&D winner, well drawn, well in at the weights. Slight negative, trainer’s last winner was this one last April.

    Chris Murrell 01/02/19 11:43 AM Reply


    • Would appear the carrot was big enough haha. Best of luck! 🙂

      Josh 01/02/19 11:50 AM Reply


  • Hi all, delved into the AW for my three today.

    All 1 Pt win TIPS

    LINGFIELD 13:45 INDISCRETION @ 4.5
    WOLVES 16:10 TANGRAMM @ 10.0
    NEWCASTLE 17:15 SPIRIT KINGDOM @ 8.8

    All BOG
    G.L. Solent

    SOLENT 01/02/19 11:55 AM Reply


  • Rahel Blackmore riding one for I Jardine at Newcastle which is somewhat unusual

    I will take Golden Wolf 4.15

    Andrew Gilmore 01/02/19 12:02 PM Reply


  • I’d be willing to put a few tips up if it’s open to all members Josh.

    Stan 01/02/19 12:09 PM Reply


    • It’s open to all members Stan, you just have to post as and when you wish, and keep your own running P/L / ROI to betfair SP, in order to count in the comp come end of month, min 20 bets etc as per rules laid out above.

      Josh 01/02/19 12:40 PM Reply


  • Hello all,
    January was a quiet month for my new thread. Been managing my 93yo Mother into a home via 3 hospitals since early November after 78 years of complete independence. Time consuming, and she lives 80 miles away so racing has not been my topmost priority.
    10 selections, 3 winners and one place.
    Started the month -7.25pts and finished -.75 so a return of 6.5 pts on the month. 30% SR.
    To date since starting 16/11/2019 39 bets 8 winners, 6 places, 25 losers
    Win s/r 20.5%
    Win & Place sr 35.8%
    Average sp 10.3/1 Average Price taken 11/1
    My method starts with pace angle via geegeez then goes, trainer, jockey, traditional form and after yesterday’s venture onto the all weather draw!
    maybe Febrary will bring calmer waters and I can find a few more selections.
    Nothing today.
    Hugh

    alpha2 01/02/19 12:33 PM Reply


  • TIPS

    Wolves 2.05 OUTLAW TORN
    Ling 2.55 PERIQUE
    3.55 BROGANS BAY
    New 4.45 THREE CASTLES
    6.45 MOSSY’S LODGE

    jarrodholmes68 01/02/19 12:40 PM Reply


  • COMPETITION TIP/S 1PT WINS EACH 🙂

    5.15 NEWCASTLE
    Klipperty Klopp
    Uh Oh Chongo
    Cadeau dAmour

    Just love the jockey silks really 🙂
    we shall see 🙂
    gl/gb

    GEORGE B 01/02/19 12:44 PM Reply


    • GL George, I had fears of you posting 15/20 tips haha. Am I to assume this is the ‘best of’ your initial systems quals after you’ve had a sift through them with your ‘form’ eyes? Not that it matters, just interested, best of luck as always!

      Josh 01/02/19 1:14 PM Reply


      • hi josh
        20 tips ……… how very dare you 🙂
        nope .. today my 90 active systems brought up no bets !! (very rare) … it really is because i like the colour of the silks .. oh and that mr mw esaterby really loves a big priced winner at newcastle every now and again …. and i thought today it might as well be in the competition .. so i have 3pts running on 2 live outsiders and 1 on more of a favourite to cover the bets .. it’s not so much winning as NOT losing for me really .

        gl/gb

        GEORGE B 01/02/19 3:27 PM Reply


    • told ya .. the Easterby horse was there to win .. nice e/w ( 2nd or 3rd in da end ??)

      gl/gb

      GEORGE B 01/02/19 5:20 PM Reply


    • Hope you took the places there George, excellent race assessment with two decent priced placed horses.

      Tim Hanson 01/02/19 5:20 PM Reply


      • always do tim .. i am more comfortable pilaging the bf 4tbp markets 🙂
        always be wary of an easterby horse way out in the betting at newcastle 🙂

        gl/gb 🙂

        GEORGE B 01/02/19 5:24 PM Reply


        • Cheers G! 🙂

          Mark Curtis 01/02/19 5:31 PM Reply


  • Gonna play too! All tips will be all weather, max of 20 per month as per the rules.

    13.45 Ling Indiscretion

    17.45 New Porrima

    20.30 Dundalk Ken’s Sams

    All selections based on trainer/jockey from or bits of quotes and RP comments.

    Mark Curtis 01/02/19 12:46 PM Reply


    • great minds 🙂
      gb 🙂

      GEORGE B 01/02/19 12:47 PM Reply


      • Good luck G, all the best.

        Mark Curtis 01/02/19 1:09 PM Reply


        • Hi Mark, it’s a minimum of 20, no max number, albeit I think less is always more! 🙂 In a way I hope it taps into what some people may just be doing in private anyway etc.

          Josh 01/02/19 1:13 PM Reply


          • Whoops, thanks Josh. I imagine there won’t be much more than 20. BTW, I can’t help thinking there is scope for looking at the micro angles for AW and turf for a select group of trainers who crop up again and again on low grade handicaps. Karen Gorman, Marjorie Fife, John Jenkins, Nigel Tinkler, to name a few. Anyone with time and inclination (and HRB!) might unearth something good!

            Mark Curtis 01/02/19 1:50 PM Reply


            • HI Mark,
              playing around with it now ….. using the usual suspects (trainers/jockeys) .. it through up “BLACK TRUFFLE” today 😉 it’s showing a good sp/bfsp but only about 12% on win ratio ?? 🙁
              …. i’ll keep playing around 🙂 #

              cheers
              gb 🙂

              GEORGE B 01/02/19 5:12 PM Reply


              • Hi George, well done. I’m sure the four I mentioned could be profitable depending on a permutation of class, distance, course, jockey etc. Be interested if you turn up anything (tho wasn’t Black Truffle Mark Usher)?

                Mark Curtis 01/02/19 5:36 PM Reply


                • hi mark
                  yep i have added him in and bridger / bradley / hedger and added in specific jockeys used on the winners .. usual suspects ..seems to be low % high bfsp at the mo .. but still playing around with classes etc 🙂 and of course not forgetting our old mate mr ivory / winston 😉
                  gb 🙂

                  GEORGE B 01/02/19 5:48 PM Reply


                • mark this is not gonna look good pasted but the / / corresponds to below 2 lines
                  Bets/Wins/Win%/P/L(SP)/Places/Place%/Races/Race% /ROI(SP)/P/L(BF)/ROI(BF)
                  275/59/ 21.45/£93.93/124/45.09/254/23.23/34.16/£143.44/52.16

                  p/l sp £ 93.93 and bfsp £ 143.44
                  with an A/E 1.29 AND CHI of 4.72

                  ..still trimming 🙂
                  gl/gb

                  GEORGE B 01/02/19 6:08 PM Reply


                  • Thanks George, not sure what you have uncovered but it sounds promising!

                    Mark Curtis 01/02/19 7:55 PM Reply


  • Wolv’ 3.10 Reggae Runner…. 8.0

    Tim Hanson 01/02/19 1:06 PM Reply


    • I am on at 8/1 for 1 point.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 01/02/19 1:10 PM Reply


    • Tim
      That was hardlines with R R veered off a straight line in the run in and lost it by only a half-length.

      Mike

      mickeydee 01/02/19 3:19 PM Reply


      • Yep Mike….. Still a little green I’m thinking cos was closing on the fav’ at the line. An extra 20 yards and we might just have bagged it.

        Tim Hanson 01/02/19 3:26 PM Reply


  • Back at 4.00 with the evening update

    Tim Hanson 01/02/19 1:08 PM Reply


    • Tonight……..

      N/c 5.15 Klipperty Klopp 13.0 …….Not often me and George B agree on much anything, so is probably the kiss of death, but I’ll blame George anyway if it loses. 😉

      N/c 7.15 Opera Kiss ……. 10.0 …….Trainer figures not brilliant although has had some debutante success. Sire figures respectable given the nature of the race so is worth a poke, but odds requirement is a must for this one.

      Tim Hanson 01/02/19 4:11 PM Reply


      • gee thanks lol 😉

        GEORGE B 01/02/19 4:46 PM Reply


  • Tip
    Wolv 4:10 Harlow.
    First run for Ian Williams. Good Jockey for Wolverhampton.

    Mark Burns

    Mark Burns 01/02/19 1:58 PM Reply


  • Josh….. Great idea for tipping competition as this will generate increased participation on the site….in theory though you could tip every horse, every day, in every race, every month and hit on a few very big priced winners and win the £50.00!!! Does there need to be a maximum nos of bets per month as well . Just a thought..

    silver 01/02/19 2:06 PM Reply


    • Hmm, you should try it in private and see how you get on haha – I don’t think that approach ends in profit!! . I will hold fire on a max no. per month for this month, and see how it goes, but yep if loads of people start reeling off 8/10+ horses a day, I may need to. I would have thought many would be in the 3-8 a day, on average, but we shall see. Less is more in general I think. I suppose a cap of 120 a month (average 4 per day) or something could be useful, we shall see. I didn’t want too many rules or to be too draconian initially, and different people have different methods.

      Josh 01/02/19 2:30 PM Reply


      • HaHa…. Don’t think i would have the patience…process would drive insane after a day!!…Appreciate what you are trying to do …just limit selections to one selection per day as other naps tables do lessens work all round and fits in with 20 bets min rule as well as not increasing work load on yourself or others…only a suggestion… no negative criticism intended…just trying to be constructive in what is an excellent addition to the site.

        silver 01/02/19 4:09 PM Reply


        • i don’t intend to do that as yet, I’m a bit anti ‘naps’, they don’t make logical sense in my head, and it is meant to in part be a reward for those who already post and anyone else who may start chipping in, as a way of rewarding their existing approach.
          The workload is up to the individual who posts, keeping track of the no. bets, winners, P/L to BFSP and ROI from that. It’s the only way it will work until I get some automated software. It is only a bit of fun.

          Josh 01/02/19 5:40 PM Reply


  • Well Josh you found my tipping point (pun intended). The thought of 50 spondoolics is enough to tempt me out of retirement. So I’ve dusted off my AW system and will give it a go at least for Feb.

    Ken’s Tips
    Wolves
    4.10 Francophilia 9/2
    4.40 Comeonfeeltheforce 11/2

    Newcastle
    4.15 Loud And Clear 4/1
    5.15 Spirit Kingdom 8/1

    I’ve only put the odds up as a guide, realise the comp is based on BSP.

    For any newbies on here, I ran an AW system last year. It was a bumpy ride with big highs and lows but overall made a profit of 132pts from Dec 17 to Oct 18. If you are following, I recommend a bank of 200pts.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 01/02/19 2:18 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken
      Thought it was the lure of money that drew you out of retirement didn’t take much did it Ha Ha semi colon(; smiley faces whatever.
      Good luck in the 5.15 Spirit Kingdom noticed we agree.
      All the best
      Colin

      cleafe 01/02/19 2:55 PM Reply


      • Welcome back to the mad house Ken LOL

        That’s 3 of us now on Spirit Kingdom, cue 2nd place by a nose on the line!!!!

        Solent

        SOLENT 01/02/19 3:14 PM Reply


      • Haha. Not sure I’ll be tipping every day. I’ve enjoyed my time away and don’t want to get dragged back into tge daily grind. Will see how it goes.

        Ken McKenzie 01/02/19 6:04 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Newcastle
    5.15 Spirit Kingdom BOG 8/1
    7.45 Dodgy Bob BOG 11/2

    Colin

    cleafe 01/02/19 2:49 PM Reply


  • This is like walking into your local pub on New Years Eve and asking, “where do all these people come from?” 🙂 🙂 🙂

    gallou 01/02/19 2:56 PM Reply


    • Great vibe though!!! As to the question refer you to biology at the most basic level!

      silver 01/02/19 4:16 PM Reply


  • Here goes from another one out of the woodwork:

    Apache Blaze 4.10 Wolver 12/1 .

    I give best price I can get as opposed to best price available.

    bogsnorkeler 01/02/19 3:06 PM Reply


  • The race is running really late so I will post this; Four Knights Gulfstream Race 11. What are the Americans so bad at keep to the time schedule?

    bogsnorkeler 11/08/19 2:03 PM Reply


    • -2 on the day 🙁

      bogsnorkeler 11/08/19 2:17 PM Reply


  • The race is running really late so I will post this; Four Knights Gulfstream Race 11. What are the Americans so bad at keep to the time schedule?

    bogsnorkeler 01/02/19 10:14 PM Reply


    • -2 on the day 🙁

      bogsnorkeler 01/02/19 10:20 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Will be a later update at 4pm with the conditions for traveling will their be N/Rs at Newcastle?

    ELITE BETS
    No bet today
    Colin

    cleafe 12/08/19 12:56 AM Reply


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