Members Daily Post: 30/01/19 (complete)

Section 1 (x1), test zone, handicap hurdle angle

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Leicester   – Abandoned 

 

Plumpton – Abandoned 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -5.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/9,2p, -1)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/151,67p, +3.8, 1 point win)

Ah, you have to take days like that on the chin albeit they’re easier when you have a 50+ points profit pile to work with. Takingrisks’ race was over before it had begun, having sweated up profusely before the race. It isn’t a surprise then that he ran his worst race in 12 months or so. That’s how it goes in this game, but maybe he will be an OK price NTO – to a C3 heavy ground chase at Ayr would do, and that reasoning for his poor performance may go under the radar. I’ll just put a line through that, as he never looked happy. And I do need another cliff to hurl myself off… 🙂

 

None today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

Osborne/headgear

5.45 W – Your Bland

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

Cheltenham Monthly Article: HERE>>>

 

NEW! Adam Norman’s latest article >>> HERE>>> 

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How to profit from ‘Kalaharry’ moving forwards? 

Firstly well done to Gallou for plundering this winner at Newcastle, at rewarding morning odds of 14s +  , smashed in late to be sent off 11/2. Looking back he is the sort we should all be working hard to find, and I thought i’d dive into HorseRaceBase to help give myself a better chance moving forward. I tipped him to win two starts back (no, really) at 10s where he tanked through the race, the front two pulling clear and showing a determined attitude in the finish. He’d had some issues and that was only his 6th handicap hurdle run, on the back of a long lay off the run before where he went well enough over a trip too short. He’d already shown a winning attitude on his last run before his lay off. So, what happened last time? Well, he wasn’t out of form. He raced in a class 3 there off 106. The top rated was 131, the horse just above him was 114. (top rated was 111 at Newcastle) He was simply outclassed and probably ran to his level. That run was also after 18 days off, which may have been short enough given the effort at Hexham. He was bang there until 3 from home. At Newcastle he dropped back in class, with the top rated only 111. Quite the difference in opposition. He had 30 days off, got his ground and got a big field to be buried in (he is a strong travelling sort, which is generally a positive but will always need to settle, and the bigger the field the better) Anyway, he cruised through this, and put it to bed easily enough in the closing stages. 

So, what can I/we take away… 

I wanted to find some ‘starting points’ with that profile – handicap hurdle / won two starts back / dropping down 1 class…

Starter set of rules

  • Today’s race Class 2-4 
  • Handicap Hurdle (inc novice hncps) 
  • Won two starts back  (LTO finishing position irrelevant)
  • Drop 1 class from Last Time Out 
  • 16/1 or shorter SP (0/89,6p above this) 
  • 2014 – 

 

570 bets / 104 winners / 222 places (inc wins ) / 18% win SR / +102 SP / +201 BFSP / AE 1.05 / Chi 0.35

Now, they are a starting point, not to be backed blind.  

From there we could get thinking, and for example determine just how well they won two starts back (also how far clear were front 2/3 of rest) , has the form been franked, are they still unexposed, well handicapped, is there a valid excuse for LTO (if they didn’t win) >>> race was too hot / outclassed / race came too soon/ needed the run / wrong ground / trip / track/  race not run to suit etc 

It averages 111 ‘qualifiers’ a calendar year, 20 winners. 

 I should say Class 5 runs at -35 SP and they may be worth discounting, and given they’re generally more mediocre animals, it may make sense, but it does highlight winners at that level…

Let’s get digging… so, within that starter set above…

  • 1-4 handicap hurdle wins: 76/403,120p, +205 BFSP 
  • 3-6 career wins: 63/277,118p, 23% sr , +246 BFSP 
  • Clear top, clear 2nd or clear 3rd in weights: 53/244,100p, 22% sr , +117 BFSP 
  • Micro? 10-12 career RUNS: 27/86,41p, + 83 SP, +114 BFSP 
  • Micro? 10-24 career RUNS: 62/261, 108p, 24% sr , +160 SP, +225 BFSP 
    • within this angle: 
    • Top 4 LTO: 32/105, 49p, 30% sr, +115 SP, +158 BFSP 
    • 3 to 6 year olds: 35/123, 55p, 28% sr , +109 SP, +150 BFSP 
    • Grade 1 or Grade 2 was highest class had RUN at in career: 10/37, 16p, +41 
    • 9-16 runners in race (maybe ensuring evenly run, or more likely) : 29/137,52p, +154 BFSP

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Hopefully those of you who like such stats chat take something from the above. I’ve saved the main system and will see if I can flag them. I intend to use the above to help with my own punting on here and we will see how that goes. I may try and apply similar thinking to chasers and see how they do.

Josh

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

96 Responses

  1. Interesting numbers Josh.
    There’s certainly mileage in the angle and it bodes well for the future.
    I think Nick’s winner on Monday, Hijran had a similar profile, winning a C3, floundering nto and then dropped into C4 & winning again.

    1. Yep he did from memory. He’s also a keen sort I think and think he may have over raced the time before, his run after his win. And then settled much better at Kempton, easy win. Clearly something there with more unexposed ones, recent wining form, valid excuses LTO etc. As with yours today and Nick’s they can pop up at nice odds. Hoepfully can find some myself!

      1. Sounds like a very interesting angle Josh. Looking forward to developments as they occur. Have you done a month by month breakdown yet? Is an easy way to see the general effect the unexposed horses may have on it (if any), as they always seem to perform best in the first half of the season from my own experiences.

        Hence the scarcity of bets from me this past few days, and the bad weather ain’t helping either.

      2. Josh, you know I am a big Twisters fan and one of his, Supakalanistic, did something different i.e. class drop at a track he acts at on Monday and won fairly easily. One that Dad and I had been watching for some time…

      3. Thanks josh for that handicap hurdle system .. now fully broken down and put back together again with a few add on’s here and there as is my want. Brilliant stuff as usual 🙂
        gl/gb

    1. Ditto Passing Oceans.
      The 3 horses in front of it two runs back are now rated so far ahead of this opening OR101 it makes this first run in a handicap very appealing.
      Trainers record with first time in a hcp adds to the mix.

      I also think Flanagans Field will be there or thereabouts.

  2. Tips – 2.40 Leicester, Come On Charlie, 11/2 x 2 points each way. Unsuited by the step up in trip LTO, the horse now comes back to 2 1/2 miles, which he has won at. A prominent runner with only 10′ 7” to carry here the current price looks OK.

  3. wednesday selections if any racing.
    Plumpton 4-30. Bolister 7-1
    Leicester 2-40. Doubly Clever 10-1
    Leicester 4-10. Stormbringin 11-1
    all 1/2 pt ew, 1/4 pt ew treble

  4. Interesting numbers Josh.
    There’s certainly mileage in the angle and it bodes well for the future.
    I think Nick’s winner on Monday, Hijran had a similar profile, winning a C3, floundering nto and then dropped into C4 & winning again.

    1. Yep he did from memory. He’s also a keen sort I think and think he may have over raced the time before, his run after his win. And then settled much better at Kempton, easy win. Clearly something there with more unexposed ones, recent wining form, valid excuses LTO etc. As with yours today and Nick’s they can pop up at nice odds. Hoepfully can find some myself!

      1. Sounds like a very interesting angle Josh. Looking forward to developments as they occur. Have you done a month by month breakdown yet? Is an easy way to see the general effect the unexposed horses may have on it (if any), as they always seem to perform best in the first half of the season from my own experiences.

        Hence the scarcity of bets from me this past few days, and the bad weather ain’t helping either.

        1. Unexposed horses from the less high profile trainers are a source of value, you just have to try to work out when they are positioned to win a race. I am not so sure that they are more prolific in the first half of the season than the second etc. At the festival we see unexposed types rolling up in handicaps and we need to dig them out from the other runners.

          1. Hi Josh, i should know the answer to this (especially getting a Distinction once in Statistics but over 45 years ago 🙂 but what is the Chi referred to 0.35 above? Thanks!

          2. I think it is … “The Chi-square test is intended to test how likely it is that an observed distribution is due to chance. It is also called a “goodness of fit” statistic, because it measures how well the observed distribution of data fits with the distribution that is expected if the variables are independent”
            I believe anything over 3.35 or thereabouts would indicate that it’s very unlikely the results etc are down to chance. The bigger the number the better I think.
            This may explain more… https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/chi-square-test.html

            HRB calculates it, and I only use as a guide, of course depends on the numbers in the sample. But the AE + Chi scores for that top set of data are probably why you wouldn’t back it blind. Makes logical sense though.

            i’m sure you can google more etc if you wish, plenty of stuff out there, plenty goes over my head! 🙂
            Josh

          3. It’s just an observation on my part Martin. I find that the best unexposed horses have already risen to the surface or at least shown some potential come the middle of the season and the market has already latched on to them. There are still unexposed horses around in the latter half at decent odds but they tend to be types that haven’t shown much if anything, the vast majority of which will go over the cliff taking you with them if you’re not careful.

            Someone posted a stat recently on here saying that only 20% of race horses ever win a race which kind of puts things into perspective. I just checked out handicap hurdles only, and the figure over the past 20 years or so is 31% of horses do win at least 1 race in their career. Which means that 69% of all debutante handicap hurdlers will never win a race. Frightening! That’s an awful lot of cliffs.

            Another thing is where you draw the line between exposed and unexposed. For me once they get into double figures they’re in the ‘grey area’ and I need to see supporting evidence that they could still improve or I’m likely to ditch it. Josh appears to be a little more flexible than that. Josh’s criteria does say there has to be a win in the recent form so he is already separating out the better ones, but as the season wears on and they run more races the market will surely get the measure of them.

      2. Josh, you know I am a big Twisters fan and one of his, Supakalanistic, did something different i.e. class drop at a track he acts at on Monday and won fairly easily. One that Dad and I had been watching for some time…

      3. Thanks josh for that handicap hurdle system .. now fully broken down and put back together again with a few add on’s here and there as is my want. Brilliant stuff as usual 🙂
        gl/gb

    1. Ditto Passing Oceans.
      The 3 horses in front of it two runs back are now rated so far ahead of this opening OR101 it makes this first run in a handicap very appealing.
      Trainers record with first time in a hcp adds to the mix.

      I also think Flanagans Field will be there or thereabouts.

  5. Tips – 2.40 Leicester, Come On Charlie, 11/2 x 2 points each way. Unsuited by the step up in trip LTO, the horse now comes back to 2 1/2 miles, which he has won at. A prominent runner with only 10′ 7” to carry here the current price looks OK.

  6. I do have a couple for the Dublin Festival this weekend and am really hoping the meeting goes ahead, weather forecast looks set fair, but, frost overnight on the Friday is a worry…
    I simply cannot understand the Irish tissue for some of the races, also, our bookies are all over the place…I may have an ante post, but, sick of getting “stung”, days before, when they get pulled, nature of the beast though, so, will muse today and maybe post later…
    Cubomania 6/1 and the horse that beat him at this track Tisamystery 12/1??? go figure..? I feel Cubomania is a nearly horse…he may get his head in front, but, at double the odds Tisamystery looks a steal. Tisamystery to me how they compile these odds, to our benefit I suppose.

  7. AW lunacy.
    Wolves 4-45 Blue Rocks 33-1 + , i know i must be mad but there is a little logic to my madness. only 2 wins have come at Wolves last one oved cd in a C5, previous win came after a lengthy lay off. that’s it yes i know clutching at straws and all that but i’ll have a small punt for a bit of fun.

    1. Why not ! Its come in to 28 on BFair already! 🙂 I was thinking i would have a nice day off but have invested £2 each way, using my ‘intuitive’ profits from last nights footie. I stumbled across the latest score and saw that with just 8 minutes to go Man U were trailing 0-2 home to Burnley and i just sensed it was worth backing the Draw and waiting to see if they scored and trade out. After first goal i decided to wait and they got a second in injury time and i traded out for £25. Have used this strategy a time or two especially when a ‘big club’ is losing to a smaller one with maybe 10 minutes or less to go! Wished i had put 20 on them 🙂 Apols for a para on footie but i guess its ok on a quiet Racing day! All the best.

  8. GOLF BETS Free Post not up

    No bets this week arrived home 7.15pm last night and not feeling sparkling this morning.

    COLINS BETS could be a bet at Wolverhamton will put up around Noon

    Colin

    1. Hi Colin, know how you feel after my op last year. Put your feet up, relax and come back fighting in a few days time.

      All the best Solent

      1. Hi Solent
        My fear came to haunt me had to walk up 48 steps to my front door and the pain this morning is the worse that i have had, so total rest today no exercising and all being well will recover, the nurses at the hospital kept telling me to slow down and the ambulance workers said that i made short work of the stairs certainly paying for it this morning.
        Trust that you came out of your op well.
        Colin.

        1. Yes Colin all when well, on New Years Eve received a phone call from the hospital saying that the results had come back negative. so they don’t want to see me until April. The mind is now back in place where it was before all the problems began!!!
          With that so far January, as been my best month ever over all my portfolios!!! Onwards and upwards.

          All the best. Solent

  9. Nothing for me in the first at Lingfield (the rest of the meeting isn’t exactly brilliant either). so will post at 2.00 with the Wolves update at 4.00

      1. Nice picking Tim, i’m staying disciplined with the min BFSP as advised, so didn’t place this time, 7.49, so i’ll take that on the chin! Shows your eyes are working very well, in great form.

        1. This what I mean about how sometimes not relying on BFSP can you get a result. Think of it as a bonus win as it’s a no bet for the record.

          1. oh I know, and I know if I was sat there tracking it, if it was 9.00+ in couple minutes before I may have gone in, and/or had a look at the race which I didn’t do this time etc. All useful, and your results to min advised are superb since started posting, and i’ll land on odd one bonus one where i engage the brain and look, which I didn’t do today!

          2. Matchbook are a bit more active in terms of volume lately and there was 10/1 about on Anapurna. I guessed BFSP would not be bigger and it worked out. Swings and roundabouts though.

  10. COLINS BETS
    Wolverhampton
    6.45 Billyoakes BOG 7/1
    7.15 Magical Molly Joe BOG 9/2

    ELITE BETS
    Wolverhampton
    7.15 Hungarian Rhapsody BOG 7/2
    7.15 Imbucato BOG 33/1
    7.15 Diamond Pursuit BOG 28/1
    Well three in the same race certainly due a biggie is this the day backing the fav if it wins make a small profit,been here before on many occasions in the past do not back the outsiders and one of them win your choice know i will back them and that will be 3 points staked.
    Colin

  11. I do have a couple for the Dublin Festival this weekend and am really hoping the meeting goes ahead, weather forecast looks set fair, but, frost overnight on the Friday is a worry…
    I simply cannot understand the Irish tissue for some of the races, also, our bookies are all over the place…I may have an ante post, but, sick of getting “stung”, days before, when they get pulled, nature of the beast though, so, will muse today and maybe post later…
    Cubomania 6/1 and the horse that beat him at this track Tisamystery 12/1??? go figure..? I feel Cubomania is a nearly horse…he may get his head in front, but, at double the odds Tisamystery looks a steal. Tisamystery to me how they compile these odds, to our benefit I suppose.

  12. Afternoon,

    So, here we go…
    IRISH GOLD CUP Leopardstown Sunday.
    KEMBOY 1pt win 11/2 gen
    He is a lot shorter than lto, but, so long as the same jockey is on board I can see him going very close indeed, he is been here done it got t shirt territory and usually that would worry me, but, he is still a kid in the sweet shop and may once again nick the bon bons before the owner realises!
    TOTAL RECALL 1pt win 16/1 365
    Now this fella interests me, he has run over hurdles and been swapped from them to fences a couple of times, maybe the owners don’t know which way to go with him. He does clout the odd fence, but, on a going day he could obliterate this field off a light weight!! Price is value too and i think this is a race that will be set up for his fighting qualities.

  13. AW lunacy.
    Wolves 4-45 Blue Rocks 33-1 + , i know i must be mad but there is a little logic to my madness. only 2 wins have come at Wolves last one oved cd in a C5, previous win came after a lengthy lay off. that’s it yes i know clutching at straws and all that but i’ll have a small punt for a bit of fun.

    1. Why not ! Its come in to 28 on BFair already! 🙂 I was thinking i would have a nice day off but have invested £2 each way, using my ‘intuitive’ profits from last nights footie. I stumbled across the latest score and saw that with just 8 minutes to go Man U were trailing 0-2 home to Burnley and i just sensed it was worth backing the Draw and waiting to see if they scored and trade out. After first goal i decided to wait and they got a second in injury time and i traded out for £25. Have used this strategy a time or two especially when a ‘big club’ is losing to a smaller one with maybe 10 minutes or less to go! Wished i had put 20 on them 🙂 Apols for a para on footie but i guess its ok on a quiet Racing day! All the best.

  14. Guys quick question. On Betfair exchange where do you go to set the minimum price on BFSP bets on your phone? It is easy enough on a PC and you used to be able to go to full site on the app but this doesn’t seem possible anymore. Is this a bug and has anyone managed to get around it?

    1. Nick on the Exchange home page, scroll to the bottom and click on Full site. It’s small and fiddly but does the job. It’s not available on mobile version

      1. That wasn’t working and when going through the browser it was taking me to the app when I had it downloaded.

  15. GOLF BETS Free Post not up

    No bets this week arrived home 7.15pm last night and not feeling sparkling this morning.

    COLINS BETS could be a bet at Wolverhamton will put up around Noon

    Colin

    1. Hi Colin, know how you feel after my op last year. Put your feet up, relax and come back fighting in a few days time.

      All the best Solent

      1. Hi Solent
        My fear came to haunt me had to walk up 48 steps to my front door and the pain this morning is the worse that i have had, so total rest today no exercising and all being well will recover, the nurses at the hospital kept telling me to slow down and the ambulance workers said that i made short work of the stairs certainly paying for it this morning.
        Trust that you came out of your op well.
        Colin.

        1. Yes Colin all when well, on New Years Eve received a phone call from the hospital saying that the results had come back negative. so they don’t want to see me until April. The mind is now back in place where it was before all the problems began!!!
          With that so far January, as been my best month ever over all my portfolios!!! Onwards and upwards.

          All the best. Solent

      1. Nice picking Tim, i’m staying disciplined with the min BFSP as advised, so didn’t place this time, 7.49, so i’ll take that on the chin! Shows your eyes are working very well, in great form.

          1. oh I know, and I know if I was sat there tracking it, if it was 9.00+ in couple minutes before I may have gone in, and/or had a look at the race which I didn’t do this time etc. All useful, and your results to min advised are superb since started posting, and i’ll land on odd one bonus one where i engage the brain and look, which I didn’t do today!

          2. Matchbook are a bit more active in terms of volume lately and there was 10/1 about on Anapurna. I guessed BFSP would not be bigger and it worked out. Swings and roundabouts though.

  16. COLINS BETS
    Wolverhampton
    6.45 Billyoakes BOG 7/1
    7.15 Magical Molly Joe BOG 9/2

    ELITE BETS
    Wolverhampton
    7.15 Hungarian Rhapsody BOG 7/2
    7.15 Imbucato BOG 33/1
    7.15 Diamond Pursuit BOG 28/1
    Well three in the same race certainly due a biggie is this the day backing the fav if it wins make a small profit,been here before on many occasions in the past do not back the outsiders and one of them win your choice know i will back them and that will be 3 points staked.
    Colin

  17. Sorry to come in slightly late on these Tim, are they BFSP at the prices quoted? Or simply take a price about them providing it is above the quoted odds?

    Cheers,
    Lee

    1. The price I put on them is the minimum price I believe it to be worth for long term value. So as far as backing them goes the objective is to better the advised minimum odds. If you get better then it crashes below the minimum you are still ok in the long term cos you got the price, even though it could end up you get an extra loser in the short term. Either way, win or lose it won’t be recorded on my month end scores.

      The thing about the minimum BFSP is that it allows people to play even if they can’t be by the PC all day every day, myself included.

      1. Just logged on to see you had a winner…excellent job…was not on! as had a day away from form selecting and racing altogether due to the weather and the low grade all weather racing which at times is like bingo on legs…may play tomorrow but not certain…all the best for tomorrow and thanks for the stats percentage regarding horse wins…quite an eye opener and something to factor in.

  18. Afternoon,

    So, here we go…
    IRISH GOLD CUP Leopardstown Sunday.
    KEMBOY 1pt win 11/2 gen
    He is a lot shorter than lto, but, so long as the same jockey is on board I can see him going very close indeed, he is been here done it got t shirt territory and usually that would worry me, but, he is still a kid in the sweet shop and may once again nick the bon bons before the owner realises!
    TOTAL RECALL 1pt win 16/1 365
    Now this fella interests me, he has run over hurdles and been swapped from them to fences a couple of times, maybe the owners don’t know which way to go with him. He does clout the odd fence, but, on a going day he could obliterate this field off a light weight!! Price is value too and i think this is a race that will be set up for his fighting qualities.

  19. Guys quick question. On Betfair exchange where do you go to set the minimum price on BFSP bets on your phone? It is easy enough on a PC and you used to be able to go to full site on the app but this doesn’t seem possible anymore. Is this a bug and has anyone managed to get around it?

    1. Nick on the Exchange home page, scroll to the bottom and click on Full site. It’s small and fiddly but does the job. It’s not available on mobile version

      1. That wasn’t working and when going through the browser it was taking me to the app when I had it downloaded.

  20. Sorry to come in slightly late on these Tim, are they BFSP at the prices quoted? Or simply take a price about them providing it is above the quoted odds?

    Cheers,
    Lee

    1. The price I put on them is the minimum price I believe it to be worth for long term value. So as far as backing them goes the objective is to better the advised minimum odds. If you get better then it crashes below the minimum you are still ok in the long term cos you got the price, even though it could end up you get an extra loser in the short term. Either way, win or lose it won’t be recorded on my month end scores.

      The thing about the minimum BFSP is that it allows people to play even if they can’t be by the PC all day every day, myself included.

      1. Just logged on to see you had a winner…excellent job…was not on! as had a day away from form selecting and racing altogether due to the weather and the low grade all weather racing which at times is like bingo on legs…may play tomorrow but not certain…all the best for tomorrow and thanks for the stats percentage regarding horse wins…quite an eye opener and something to factor in.

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