Members Daily Post: 29/01/19 (complete)

Tip x1 + write up, Section 1 (complete), test zone, Chelt article

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Lingfield

ABANDONED

 

Newcastle   

1.20 –

Iconic Belle   (m class) 14 11/2 UP

Peters Cousin   (all Hc’s) 14,30  w1 H3 7/4 

2.30 –

Straidnahanna   (m’s dist and runs) 14,30 10/1 S2 UP

Taking Risks   (all Hc’s)  H1 I1 9/2  UP

3.05 –

Top Billing   (all Hc’s)  w2 I3 14/1 S2 S5  UP

Silk or Scarlet   (m TJC) G3 15/2  S1 Up, travelled well into it, does pull a bit hard still. 

Petite Ganache   (all Hc’s)  w1 H3 4/1 

3.35 – Rossmores Pride   (HcCh, m dist)  w1 H3 I3 G3 4/1 S4 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -5.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/9,2p, -1)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/151,67p, +3.8, 1 point win)

2.30 Newc – Takingrisks – 9/2 (bet365) 4/1 (gen) UP – well I can’t really explain that run. One of those. An off day for the horse, even the ground came up right for him, just never in it at all really, and his worst run of the season by a long way, bitterly disappointing for sure. Never mind, onwards to tomorrow. Update... Adam Norman’s just tweeted that the horse was sweating profusely before the race, which would explain his worst run in 12 months I think! Ahhhh. 

that’s all for today, 09.06 write up…

With 11 handicap chase runs to his name I don’t think this 10 year old is exposed as yet over fences, and certainly not ‘his’ trip, this being only his 7th handicap chase over over 23f+. (compare that to fellow 10 year old Straidnahaana who’s having his 24th handicap chase run). I think if this one runs his race and even just repeats his last two runs, he wins this, and i’d make him a 2/1 shot to my eyes, with at least a 33% chance of winning this, if not a bit higher. He has the best chase form in this and on inform ratings his last run was actually his best to date. I’ve gone for an in form chaser who’s run well at the track over 20f before, who’s dropping two classes, get’s the right jockey back on board over fences, from a yard in red hot form, and with a fair bit of pace on paper to track/sit behind. He hasn’t run a bad race yet this season and I think I tipped him to win over hurdles 3 starts back. He’s 2/5,4p in class 3 handicap chases, 2/7,5p from a mark of 130<, and is 2/6,3p with Ryan Day on, the only jockey to to have won a handicap chase on him. This ground could be that tacky/testing type and it won’t be like the Haydock ‘good’ two starts back I don’t think. They could get all sorts of weather today and there won’t be an excuse on that front, but I suspect this could be hard work- the harder the slog the better it is for him. He jumps, gallops, responds to pressure, and just stays. Two starts back in a class two he was splitting horses rated 144 and 143 – I don’t think anything else in here has that ability. He got outpaced a tad there on that ground, and against a higher class of oppo, but stormed home after the last to only be beaten 1/2 a length. That was the day the Haydock fences were 100 feet tall and seemingly off putting even for King George winners, and Gold Cups 2nds! 🙂 LTO he ran with credit in the Rowland Meyrick. This is no Rowland Meyrick. Lake View Lad won that day off a mark of 147 and looks progressive, he was beaten in 3rd by 11L that day, 7L behind Captain Chaos who’d got an easy enough lead and in any case is also a more unexposed chaser. He did best of those held up there and again at that track, on that ground, against that higher class oppo he did get outpaced for a time before staying on again. Wakanda was a nose behind him there off 147 and he’d win the Peter Marsh for us NTO. Crosspark was further back and he ran with credit in the Warwick Classic Chase (he’s possibly got a decent enough pot in him, as he doesn’t stay 29f but ran with credit, certainly of interest if he drops back into a C3 also) Allysson Monterg was PU that day, but he went well for a very long way in the Cotswold Chase on Saturday, a decent run. Anyway, the point being, is that this race isn’t anywhere near the level of those last two races for me. Horses that attempt to make all over this CD don’t actually have the best of records and it can pay to be more patiently ridden. Straidnahanna, Ascot D B and Western Jo should ensure there’s a decent gallop on and back in this grade his natural cruising speed should ensure he doesn’t let them get too far away. He has a long long straight in which to wind up and gallop past them all, esp after the last which I think is a longer run-in than both Wetherby and certainly Haydock if my memory is correct. He’s the one to beat here and has won from a mark of 130 before. At Kelso in Jan 2018 he was travelling very well when falling and may well have won that also. This race is all about whether he runs his race in my view and given his form, and the yards, it’s going to be bitterly disappointing if he doesn’t.

The dangers…well if he doesn’t perform… then Ascot D B may give this a good go from a prominent position but this a much deeper race than LTO and I don’t know what he beat there, the 2nd was coming off a long lay off, the rest were not up to much and as such the winning distance was accentuated.

Solighoster may be the right price and if he jumps could be a danger. He does have a C3 handicap chase in him but he is usually held up too far back for me and can jump poorly. I’d be more interested if he was 8s/10s+, as I do think he has a race like this in him and he may give me most to think about with a clear round, and for a yard who’s horses are going better now. He drops in class also and this isn’t as strong as that. My one should out jump him hopefully! Rock On Fruity has never been the most consistent and now finds himself on a career high mark, I don’t think that win LTO was great form, but he is in form at least. The yard are going well but given that profile I was happy to leave. If he runs his race he won’t be far from the places over a trip he stays. Straidnahanna – I think I can just about live with him winning, a bit of a poor man’s Wakanda for the same owners/connections. This is his level but he hasn’t run that well this season as yet, is clearly more exposed and it’s a case of whether his best ever run would be good enough to win (and whether he can repeat it again) – i’m not sure it would be good enough to beat the selection. He usually has a handicap in him each season and is fairly lightly raced recently – it could be they have a target at Catterick and are working back, that wouldn’t surprise me, and I don’t think he will get an easy lead. IF he runs his race and returns to form, Takingrisks is going to have to overhaul him after the last I think, with Mulholland’s staying on also. I’d want to see a bit more, and backing exposed 10 year olds who do not arrive ‘in form’ in a handicap chase is something I really must stop doing, as a long term strategy. The yard are on fire and he could be a lively outsider. Hopefully not,and he rocks up at Catterick in the next month and makes all, having shown up well for a long way here. I was happy to leave the rest for one reason or another, I thought this was a 4 horse race and we shall see if I have that right.

Best of luck.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

1.55 N – Lord Du Mesnil 4/1 2nd

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning hurdlers

1.20 Newc – It’s All A Lark 7/2 UP

Jockeys/Chasers

2.15 Down R- Sir Ector 16/1 UP

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

4.05 N – Point Break (long term… guide) 9/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Cheltenham Monthly Article: HERE>>>

The above is what i’ve written for next month’s Betting Insider’s Club article, which they’re happy for me to share here and those deadlines always make me pull my research finger out, killing two birds with one stone. Anyway, this one focuses on The Festival, and there’s plenty packed in. Hopefully you find it useful, and some of those angles ‘will!’ find us a couple of 16s+ handicap hurdle winners during the week… we’ve always found one or two in recent Festivals anyway, and i’m quite pleased with that new stats profile. They’ll be plenty more like that just for us in the coming weeks. I need to start researching all the race trends and refreshing all the angles from last year etc. I’ve tended to thrive at the big spring festivals and have every intention of doing so again this year. Well, it wont be for the lack of effort anyway! 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

36 Responses

  1. Tips – 3.05 Newcastle, Donna’s Dream at 10/1 x 1 point each way. The horse makes its handicap debut after running OK in novice grade. The trainer has had 2/10 with debutantes in the last year, 3 places. The opposition is nothing special.
    3.45 Lingfield, Dark Invader at 14/1 x 1/2 point each way. Is suited by 2 miles and has had 2 of his wins at the minimum distance. Gets weight from most in the field, looks as if he will be ridden prominently and the race is not a good one and so can spring a surprise at the odds.

    System selections – Emma Lavelle handicapper 5/1+ up to 3 miles – 2.40 Lingfield, Water Wagtail, 14/1 x 1 point each way.

    Good luck.

    1. Addition to systems selections – Tim Vaughan in the North – 2.30 Newcastle, Theligny at 12/1 x 1 point each way.

  2. Well Josh it would appear that my brief flirtation with Matt and his GG’s is over. I got an email from Paypal saying my arrangement with Summum Bonum (strange name), has been cancelled. TBH I was done anyway. If Chris has to import data from other sources to provide his GG’s SOTD service, it would be foolish of me to think it could be adequate for my purposes.

    Apart from the lack of BFSP stats you can’t dig down much below the surface so I’ll probably end up staying with Proform. Proform also has one feature that I find invaluable and that is the ability to search your parameters by SP rank. So for me checking out trainers for example, it allows me to identify trainers that have the ability to place their horses into races at good odds without the market appearing to notice them. This usually occurs I find at certain tracks or distances, but you would be surprised just how many trainers with excellent overall strike rates only seem to be able to land them when they are short in the market.

    I know Proform is more expensive but you only need to improve your action by one winner a month and it has more than paid for itself.

    1. In the Geegeez query tool you can dig by odds but not BFSP. I appreciate HRB is a different type of tool. I do not use HRB as I think it creates over thinking from my perspective. I do appreciate its value though.

    2. Yep like I said before there’s a service and set of tools out there for everyone to suit every budget , from free through to HRB, GG, Proform and Timeform, each more pricy than the former. For those starting at £10 bets say ,Proform is on the steep end given you need 130 points profit just to pay for it.

      Ive never used Proform so can’t comment and I know GG doesn’t do that SP analysis etc I don’t think albeit haven’t looked in the query tool. The one thing GG does do is allow you to dig down very deep in little time at all but in any case such are your results I can’t think you needed another set of tools anyway! Sounds like the approach you have is working just fine from what we have all seen. I still don’t think their race cards are matched certainly for the more recreational punter but again, life is all about choice and a menu of options. Some will enjoy it, many won’t. Some will prefer HRB or proform or whatever.

      Anyway, that’s the end of that discussion, let’s get back to the horses please.

  3. Speedy Cargo Newcastle 15:05 1pt e/w-7/1-Going by point to point form has gone close to plenty of horses rated 130-140 including 5L off a grade 2 winner. Under rules again has ran solidly enough to suggest that he is at the very minimum of 20 horse so the fact he makes his debut off 111 looks lenient. The step up to 3m should definitely suit. Trainer is 4/8 in handicap hurdles when travelling more 250+ miles including 1/1 when making handicap hurdle debut and 2/3 with the jockey. They are also 4/6, 5p in hurdles in the North East. Ground should be spot on and I expect him to do well.
    Le Capricieux Lingfield 15:45 1pt e/w-13/2-Looks the one to beat here. Has ran over trips longer than ideal the last twice so its a plus they drop him back to 2m and apply first time blinkers. Trainer is 5/11 with first time blinkers in NH handicaps since the start of 2016 and is 9/41, 17p in handicap chases at the track including 2/5, 5p with his last 5 runners. I am hoping they will try and make all here.
    Drewmain Legend Lingfield 16:15 1pt e/w-7/1-This looks a poor race and there are question about quite a few of these. The selection would have needed it 2 starts ago yet still finished a decent 4th before looking stretched over 3m. He drops back to 2m3.5f which was the trip he won at 3 starts ago in a class 4 which has thrown up plenty of winners and the softer ground will suit. Trainer and jockey are 9/33, 14p +37 in handicaps and trainer is 2/8, 3p in handicaps at the track.

      1. It was very cold in this part of the world last night and Lingfield dont have covers etc as their main focus in on the all weather. It is not bad here at present but with the threat of a flake of snow sales of bread and milk have rocketed!!!!

        1. Heavy snow here in Orkney, if it is bad here then it will be bad everywhere….days of no racing ahead perhaps ?

    1. Compelling stats there for Speedy Cargo.

      I’ve looked at this race and I fancy two at larger prices.

      Kalaharry – really liked the way it won a C4 at Hexham two runs back over 3m. Travelled well throughout and tracked Misfits until the last hurdle and asked for its effort on the run in.
      Knuckled down well and and won like a horse willing to try for its rider (famous last words!)

      This will have Josh choking on his cornflakes as the horse is well exposed and it’s 12yo.
      Another Mattie – this race imo is set up well for this old timer and I don’t think it’s a mad choice. (OK, maybe it is 🙂 )
      I think this horse has form from last year and this year that gives this horse a real chance.
      LTO it had no chance in a C2
      Time before 5/15 over 20f in a C4
      3 runs ago, 21f, 3/10, C4
      4 runs ago, 24f 3/6, C4
      In this grade and with a falling OR (now 104) I can see a good effort from it and @16/1 4 places I’ll throw some EW money at it.

      1. best of luck! yep my coffee has just been spat out everywhere haha. You’re mad, surely he’s not getting anywhere near to winning that race haha. A game of opinions but in my mind there are far too many unexposed horses in this race with their best days ahead of them and with any luck Nick has picked the best of those. 12 year olds just dont go close to winning handicaps like this, that are this deep (relatively!) , surely?! I’ll spend the next few hours preparing myself to eat humble pie, but there are 7 thoroughly unexposed ones in this, a further 3/4 who arrive in some sort of form either last run, or run before. Looks deep to me, for an out of form 12 year old, after a 58 day break, to be going close, but i’m in the habit of being very wrong, and maybe I am again! 🙂

      2. Well done with Kalahari, nice picking and smashed in. Back in class, and maybe on reflection that run LTO came too soon, as was hard work for his win at Hexham, when I tipped him I think, when I could remember how to find them haha. Well done. Another Matie ran much better than I expected for sure! will find a race maybe, when a slog and in against fellow exposed types.

    2. 3.05 Sunny Destination looks has good form in the book with 3 placed finishes in his last 3 races – same class as today. He finished 2nd at 16s two starts ago and 3rd at shorter odds LTO – both at Ayr on heavy ground. He looks like he enjoys racing in big fields, he will act on the ground and the extra distance should hopefully will suit today. 6s looks ok today.

      I will be dutching him with your selection and maybe a small stake RFC.

      Good luck

      Eamon

  4. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM (<9/1 BFSP best)

    RT+4.94

    Market road drifted badly yesterday. Once they go above 9s on betfair they are best left alone but if they are put up on here they are included in results.

    1pt win 3.35 N – Mumgos Debut

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT+30.58

  5. Hi all, my three for today.

    NEWCASTLE 14:30 TAKING RISKS @ 5.0 BOG
    WOLVES 16:35 AMIR FARI @ 4.5 BOG
    WOLVES 17:10 MISTER MUSIC @ 3.0 BOG

    G.L. Solent

  6. Assuming there is racing, have selections at Newcastle based on the ratings systems I use
    13.20.. top is Peters Cousin’s. next best Another Theatre/It’s All a Larlk
    13.55. joint top Nestor Park/ Bialco…3rd in Lord Du Mesnil
    14.30. Ascot De Bruyere with Rock on Fruity 2nd in and Taking Risks 3rd in
    15.05 Petite Ganache with Misfits 2nd in and joint third Silk or Scarlet and Sunny Destination
    15.55 Mumgo’s Debut is clear top with Las Tunas second in with Charlies Snow Angel third in.

    Good luck with your selection Francis, I make it 6 points clear of Las Tunas…..it has stopped snowing here as the snow clouds are heading south and sky is clearing…will head out and get the supplies in…gd luck with whatever you are backing today.

    1. 13.20. Another Theatre won at SP 15/8
      13.55. Nestor Park won at SP 13/8
      14.30. Rock On Fruity won at SP 16/1
      Good day for the selection process so hope this progress continues.

        1. Many thanks for your kind comments….long time coming with 4 winners on the day which bodes well going forward as I have tweaked
          the selection process which seems to have worked but early days….nice price on BFSP but record any winners to industry SP as it is the fairest option though bigger prices are always available if you hunt around.

  7. Only 6 bets since Metal Exchange won last Friday with three 2nd’s amongst them. Last night another big drift out to 13.6 and although the winner had us beat a couple of lengths there was a big gap between Mineria and the rest of the field. So not unhappy. Not exactly the best time of year for finding opportunities. Losing Lingfield today is a pain as it was by far the best meet for me. Is a couple of possibilities left so will post the afternoon at 1.30 with the Wolves update at 4.00

    R/T 8W 37L +76.2 BFSP

        1. Can’t make it happen for me at Wolves tonight either. Another blank day for the record, but is not the first and won’t be the last. Upside is that nothing I was considering posting has come in so far, so maybe it’s a good day in disguise. 😉

          1. Such strict discipline is an underrated virtue in this game Tim! The second yesterday ran well, I lived in hope until the final furlong haha.

  8. Decided to do the Down Royal card.
    13.40. Stoneford/Peacock’s Secret
    13.40. See Double You/Allduckornodinner
    14.50. Black Tars/Narcassistic
    15.25. Presented Well
    15.55. Goaheadmakemyday/Dawn Hoofer.

    Good luck if playing.

    1. 15.55 Down Royal Goaheadmakemyday won at SP return 9/2 ….higher prices available earlier at 8/1 so encouraging for the selection process

  9. 4 seconds so far today for me. Days like this you think why bother? So frustrating.

    Another thing. I’ve recently started using GG Gold to pick out my own fancies and when I look the night before I get a couple i like at the price but hold off till the morning before placing the bets but the problem I’m finding is a lot of my selections are getting backed in overnight. The price goes on them so no they are no longer viable to do e/w. If I do them to win they end up finishing 2nd/3rd. So annoying. Anyone else have the same problem. I’d back them the night before but the bookies don’t like you betting at EP.

    Stan.

    1. Yep Stan, have experienced the same problem and the problem of your best chance of a winner being withdrawn…very frustrating…when the price shortens you have the option of just backing win only or saving your stake for another day…depends how confident you are in the selection….same problem when you fancy two or three in the same race….you have the option of dutching them but that depends on the prices… no real answer as it is down to personal preference,,,not very conclusive answer, sorry…all the best whatever you decide

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