Members Daily Post: 28/01/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

 

Ludlow

4.00 –

Hey Bill   (micro TJC)14  G1 4/1 UP

Smugglers Blues   (HcCh) H3 I3 11/2 UP 4/1 

4.30 – Taking A chance   (m age) 12/1 S2 3rd 7/1 

 

Kempton

None

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -5.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/9,2p, -1)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/150,67p, +4.8, 1 point win)

4.00 Lud – Smugglers Blues – 11/2 (gen) UP, of course I tipped one of the few George horses not to win today! I’ll keep smiling. He cut out again there, annoying, i’m not sure it was the trip but maybe it was, looked like he may win turning in, ends up finishing last. One to be wary of now I think, 3 times he’s done that and maybe no coincidence now.

4.30 Lud – Taking A Chance – 16/1 (bet365) 14/1 (gen) 3rd, 7/1, some late money, she’s over-raced in the young jocks arms I think, but has plugged on best of the rest. Not jumping last two may not have helped but not an excuse. She has handicaps in her on that evidence, but maybe no hidden superstar, we shall see. Did jump the hurdles as if well worth a go in a novice handicap chase. A win for the ‘saver’ horse at least, so eyes worked ok to a point there.

that’s all for today, 09.03, write ups…

Smugglers Blues – the first of two unexposed ones today and the good news for you all is that if I ever again tip an exposed horses in said code (chase/hurdle) in this ‘best of’ (worst of?? :)) section you can all have a free membership for as long as you want it and i’ll force myself to live off beans. I really need to get some ‘profile discipline’ back. The other good news (albeit not for me as it will have been abject failure) is that if i’ve got 7 bullets left to fire and if that dips below 0, given the high it hit, i’ll put myself out to grass for a little while and clear the head, which I like to do before Festival season anyway. I don’t intend on getting to that place but given the direction of travel it may be required. Bar a good day two Saturday’s back, it’s been abject for a very long time. The head is in an ok space, if not feeling a bit jaded and a tad stressed, but I know what I’ve got to do. Anyway…onto this horse…

He’s unexposed in general and clearly over fences, he goes up in trip on his second chase start, down in class, returns to better ground, and has numerous form-lines which suggest that IF he ran his race, he’d win this race by half the track to my eyes. Maybe that’s wishful thinking but it’s good to be bullish and given that George brings him to a target track for his handicap chasers (15/62, 33p last 5 years, 3/11,5p over 26f) I have to be hopeful. This horse won his third point to point, over 3m, on good ground. The second there has been kept to points and not done much. The 3rd was Highway One O One who Nick tipped on Sat and is now a solid 140s animal. Now Pointing form can clearly never materialise under rules, but it’s a solid foundation to work on. Next, to Hereford, where he ran very well. I mean that race was rather good wasn’t it?? Paisley Park won it, Vision Des Flos was in second, and he was fourth, 1L behind The Hollow Ginger – who in the mud is now a 130s animal. The other two have turned out to be a fair bit better! He was up there for a long long way in that – he did cut out a tad – maybe it was the ground/trip/flat out for a prolonged period – it is a slight niggle, as he did that at Uttox two starts back, but maybe he needed the run, and again the trip was too short. On his next start he ran at Wincanton, where he ran well, outpaced but finishing off his race in a decent 3rd.  That was over a trip too short but on decent ground. There’s a theme emerging here. That day he split horses that were already rated 132 and 129. He was 4L behind a horse who would win NTO, hacking up, but hasn’t been seen since. Then, he went over fences at Sandown in a much much deeper race than this. He set off front rank there but soon found his natural rhythm/cruising speed further back. That was soft and over 20f. His jumping was noticeable there (it was very good) as was how he travelled. He plugged on, possibly on ground too soft – that could be why he’s had a break, or they have just given him time. He was behind Glen Rocco there and he’s done ok since. Now he returns to an easier race, on ground he seems to enjoy and by all accounts what appears to be a better trip for him.   Yeats is his sire and his chasers over 25.5f – 27.5f are 5/12,6p to date, 3/10,5p over fences at Ludlow, and the selections only full sibling won a maiden hurdle over 3m, comfortably. There’s some solid thinking above, which indicates this horse WILL be thrown in from this mark, if/when, they find the key/it clicks. In this field I thought 11/2 was worth a go as that could underestimate him. In theory these unexposed ones should be worth tracking as if i’ve gone too early, he should be showing plenty soon enough.

The oppo… well I do believe that if he does as I expect, they don’t really matter here as they won’t have seen which way he’s gone. Hey Bill is solid, a tad more exposed, doesn’t look in the best of form but does return to a course where he’s won, and the yard are going well. He gets 24f, but does have to prove he’ll get further. The race he was awarded here 4 starts back hasn’t worked out very well, 0/28 since, and I could leave him at 4s. I didn’t think that was overpriced. Market Road has a stamina doubt and I can leave the two bigger priced ones as they have too much to prove for me at the moment. That leaves the Fav – she could be a decent horse in the making but hasn’t beaten much yet. That last race was woeful and she won as expected. She may step forward again and if mine doesn’t deliver, and HB and MR don’t stay, she should be winning.

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Taking A Chance – an apt name here but I couldn’t help myself at 16s/14s. I would like to see some support but I didn’t think this was a deep race and she just looked intriguing… Again she had some ok point form… well the horse that beat her in her point, Speak Easy, ran in a G1, and second in a G2 in Ireland and ended up with a rating of 134 for Joseph OB. The 3rd behind her that day was Pookie Pekan, who’s now a solid 110 horse, albeit probably only that. This one runs in her second handicap hurdle, her second after a break, moves up 7.5f and runs on better ground for the first time. Williams is 3/18,7p in handicap hurdles in the last 5 years when moving them up in trip by 7-8.5f, and 2/5,3p when it is 7.5f, as with today. He is 10/46,16p with all hurdlers at the track, 8/34,11p when in C4, 4/23,9p all handicap hurdles here, 2/9,5p aged 6.  It is a target track for his hurdlers. The jockey is a question and i’m not sure if he’s linked to the yard, but he is 1/10,3p when riding for Williams, and has ridden some decent races on recent runs. This horses best run under rules came here over 16f when clearly outpaced but she showed some ability. That’s also the best ground she’s run on. She had Bahama Moon behind in that who hasn’t won again since but has gone very close off 100 in recent weeks. The horse in front was given a mark of 115 or so, and has gone very close off that and 117, without winning. The horse in front there won his next start and went into his first handicap off 127 where he ran ok in a C2. There is some substance there. I’m pretty sure at some point she will show a mark of 97 to underestimate her ability, it could be on going like this, and over this sort of trip. Williams is 2/16 in amateur rider’s handicaps in recent years, and one of his handicap h winners here was 12s in a conditionals race. She is up in class but not a strong race and the pace they go may help her settle etc. She’s jumped well in her hurdles runs to date. This is the sort who will be struggling before they turn for home, or who will be cruising approaching the last with a double handful. You want a price with that type and I get it here.

The dangers… well I wouldn’t put anyone off a saver on Supakalanistic  who looks solid in here, ran a decent race on his first go at the trip LTO and drops int a weaker race. A repeat of that would put up there but he does have to prove he truly gets the trip. His jockey is decent enough esp in a race like this. I don’t think the form off Todd and Strictlydancer really amounts to much. I could be wrong and they are the solid options, with the latter open to further progress. Him and Twisters would be the main dangers to my eyes at least. Three Star General is just hard to win with but ran ok LTO, maybe he can build on it. Dancing Doug could be anything but i’d want to see more, it’s hard to know if a mark off 112 underestimates him at the moment, the market can guide with that yard. He doesn’t ready many after breaks- 1/37 60+ days in his career so far. Mead Vale has a stamina concern. I was more than happy to leave the rest. It looks a 7 runner race to my eyes.

That focus and thinking for these two should get that profit pile moving back in the right direction over time. Clearly both don’t have a win under rules to their name which would have been welcome but their case looks strong enough, at the prices, to my eyes. Fingers crossed at least one of them can go in.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

Osborne/Headgear

8.25 W – Gates Pass 9/2

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Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow

4.15 K – Tierra Verde 4/1 2nd

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

4.00 L – Mistress Massini (10/1< best) 11/10 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

82 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • I was expecting a mini correction but wasn’t expecting it to be quite so painful. 3 seconds, one traded 1.04 in-running and another 1.06! Still not quite sure how Achill Road Boy got beat, I think Coltherd will be having nightmares about that one.

    There was at least one 10/3 winner to provide some consolation.

    HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    Two in same race tomorrow, far from ideal. Back them as you see fit.

    RT+6.94

    1pt win – 4.00 L Market Road
    1pt win – 4.00 L Mistress Massini

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT+30.58

    Francis 12/08/19 4:44 AM Reply


    • Tough game Francis but it always happens. Don’t dwell on losers but remember the shrewdest bets you ever made, they’re just around the corner. ( smiley)

      chubnut 12/08/19 5:56 AM Reply


  • Chateau Chubnut signing in ( smiley)

    Very quiet on here, not sure if that creaking noise is Colins hip or bank !! Anyhow, Nick Mazur tipped a hoss today which reminded me of the old punt years ago called “The each way nick bet” no pun intended. For the greenhorns on here, this was a strategy where you found a very short priced dodgy jolly and bet a solid 2nd, 3rd in the betting each way and was very successful in the days of skull duggery where the connections of the Favourite would make sure it was out of the frame.

    Nick found a gem today which played into another all time favourite for a last time winner to bet against ” upped in class, downed in distance” Bookmaking has moved on from those glory days but its still worth a bet but the trick now is bet the hoss at best each way odds then lay the win back on betfair as soon as possible, wait for the drift then bet the win odds again on betfair, happy days. ( smiley)

    Chateau Chubnut is always open to give arrogant advice to greenhorns, even James P ( double smiley)

    chubnut 12/08/19 4:44 AM Reply


    • Nice one Chubster! 🙂

      Mark Curtis 12/08/19 5:56 AM Reply


    • Or could that noise be the bookies opening their safe in preparation for potentially paying out a 150/1 double for Colin’s golf bets?!

      You are right, great pick from Nick today. A slightly more fluent round and she would have nabbed the winner on the run-in.

      Francis 12/08/19 5:56 AM Reply


    • Got any selections?

      silver 12/08/19 12:58 PM Reply


    • You carry on sir, some decent advice there, enjoy the chateaux nerf du pape 🙂

      James P 12/08/19 5:56 AM Reply


    • Arrogant advice or philosophy, it is a fine line and a subjective judgement.

      The thing with each way value is you need 8 runners to be sure to stand their ground and a race with some unexposed horses to get some value from. I would say 8/1 minimum when getting on.

      martin colwell 12/08/19 5:56 AM Reply


    • Hi Chubnut..have you any selections then?

      sliver 12/08/19 5:56 AM Reply


  • Tips – 2.05 KP, Northern Bound, 1 point each way at 12/1. I do like to take on a Hendo hotpot. Ben Pauling is hot at present. This horse ran on well LTO to win and has plenty of scope. There are 9 runners at present and we need 8.
    6.55 Wol, Royal Guild, 1 point each way at 14/1. Sir Mark Prescott and Luke Morris head off to Wolves with a horse in a 3YO handicap. The horse has run over different distances and now tries a mile. Plenty of scope possible.

    Systems selections – Karl Burke on the all weather – 6.55 Wol, So Hi Storm, 1 point each way at 12/1.
    Emma Lavelle handicapper 5/1 ++ – 4.15 KP, Tierra Verde (it needs to get to 5/1+ but it is not there yet).

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 12/08/19 4:44 AM Reply


  • Hijran Kempton 16:15 1pt e/w 8/1

    Nick Mazur 12/08/19 4:44 AM Reply


    • Down to 7 runners.

      Ken McKenzie 12/08/19 4:44 AM Reply


  • I was expecting a mini correction but wasn’t expecting it to be quite so painful. 3 seconds, one traded 1.04 in-running and another 1.06! Still not quite sure how Achill Road Boy got beat, I think Coltherd will be having nightmares about that one.

    There was at least one 10/3 winner to provide some consolation.

    HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    Two in same race tomorrow, far from ideal. Back them as you see fit.

    RT+6.94

    1pt win – 4.00 L Market Road
    1pt win – 4.00 L Mistress Massini

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT+30.58

    Francis 27/01/19 7:27 PM Reply


    • Tough game Francis but it always happens. Don’t dwell on losers but remember the shrewdest bets you ever made, they’re just around the corner. ( smiley)

      chubnut 27/01/19 7:38 PM Reply


  • Chateau Chubnut signing in ( smiley)

    Very quiet on here, not sure if that creaking noise is Colins hip or bank !! Anyhow, Nick Mazur tipped a hoss today which reminded me of the old punt years ago called “The each way nick bet” no pun intended. For the greenhorns on here, this was a strategy where you found a very short priced dodgy jolly and bet a solid 2nd, 3rd in the betting each way and was very successful in the days of skull duggery where the connections of the Favourite would make sure it was out of the frame.

    Nick found a gem today which played into another all time favourite for a last time winner to bet against ” upped in class, downed in distance” Bookmaking has moved on from those glory days but its still worth a bet but the trick now is bet the hoss at best each way odds then lay the win back on betfair as soon as possible, wait for the drift then bet the win odds again on betfair, happy days. ( smiley)

    Chateau Chubnut is always open to give arrogant advice to greenhorns, even James P ( double smiley)

    chubnut 27/01/19 7:32 PM Reply


    • Nice one Chubster! 🙂

      Mark Curtis 27/01/19 7:38 PM Reply


    • Or could that noise be the bookies opening their safe in preparation for potentially paying out a 150/1 double for Colin’s golf bets?!

      You are right, great pick from Nick today. A slightly more fluent round and she would have nabbed the winner on the run-in.

      Francis 27/01/19 8:27 PM Reply


    • Got any selections?

      silver 27/01/19 9:16 PM Reply


      • No system bets Silver if that was aimed at me.

        Francis 27/01/19 10:05 PM Reply


        • Sorry Francis, clicked the wrong button…was asking Chubnut…many apologies

          silver 27/01/19 10:20 PM Reply


    • You carry on sir, some decent advice there, enjoy the chateaux nerf du pape 🙂

      James P 27/01/19 9:38 PM Reply


    • Arrogant advice or philosophy, it is a fine line and a subjective judgement.

      The thing with each way value is you need 8 runners to be sure to stand their ground and a race with some unexposed horses to get some value from. I would say 8/1 minimum when getting on.

      martin colwell 27/01/19 9:48 PM Reply


    • Hi Chubnut..have you any selections then?

      sliver 27/01/19 10:21 PM Reply


  • Tips – 2.05 KP, Northern Bound, 1 point each way at 12/1. I do like to take on a Hendo hotpot. Ben Pauling is hot at present. This horse ran on well LTO to win and has plenty of scope. There are 9 runners at present and we need 8.
    6.55 Wol, Royal Guild, 1 point each way at 14/1. Sir Mark Prescott and Luke Morris head off to Wolves with a horse in a 3YO handicap. The horse has run over different distances and now tries a mile. Plenty of scope possible.

    Systems selections – Karl Burke on the all weather – 6.55 Wol, So Hi Storm, 1 point each way at 12/1.
    Emma Lavelle handicapper 5/1 ++ – 4.15 KP, Tierra Verde (it needs to get to 5/1+ but it is not there yet).

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 27/01/19 8:38 PM Reply


  • Hijran Kempton 16:15 1pt e/w 8/1

    Nick Mazur 27/01/19 9:16 PM Reply


    • Down to 7 runners.

      Ken McKenzie 28/01/19 8:26 AM Reply


    • Brilliant Nick your still the main man

      christopher jones 28/01/19 4:23 PM Reply


      • Thanks. I was still just about in profit but with 42% placed this month and only 7% winning its nice for one to drop in at last.

        Nick Mazur 28/01/19 4:26 PM Reply


        • Nice work mate, fully deserved!

          Jim 28/01/19 4:30 PM Reply


          • Yes well done Sir – especially after recent near misses. Nice to have a profitable day despite several small staked losers! 🙂

            John Unitt 28/01/19 5:34 PM Reply


    • superb as usual Nick .. thanks …. like josh you read the races so well ….. i might even get all money back from betfair at this rate 🙂 ..the wife will be pleased 🙂
      gl/gb

      GEORGE B 28/01/19 5:47 PM Reply


    • Nice one – thank you Nick ….never looked in doubt turning for home.

      Stephen Twinn 28/01/19 6:37 PM Reply


  • JOSH and anyone else who is interested. Posted this at week- end but probably at wrong time. Out nearly all day hence early post. Hope its of some use !
    TRAINER TRACK STATS – supplied FREE by Matt Bisogno, Geegeez
    I m sure some people will have seen Josh recommending this FREE report, and will have got it or pondered. For what its worth i m pleased i did and i think it’s terrific. A great addition to anyone’s armory i feel and especially those who can add there own analysis to it – unfortunately i’m time limited on that score at present.
    For those who haven’t seen it there is an A team list of 45 trainer/track combos and they have a terrific record, and then the ‘Director’s cut’ ( the B list if you like) which comprise 61 next best combos.
    Out of interest there was a cracker at Doncaster Saturday where Nadiatak Won at 12 (BSP 15.0) in a 4 horse race, although it was on the B list and so i didn t back it (Mr Sod and all that )
    Matt does warn that backing all qualifiers is not likely to result in the high Win rate (40% for the A team) continuing nor the high ROI (102% for the A s) so caution required. Out of interest i emailed Matt to see if they have a ‘Flat’ equivalent, but sadly they don’t and although no plans at present he said ‘we’ll see nearer the time’
    So JOSH, any chance of a bit of a subtle elbow there ? not sure what others think but i would be happy to pay a sensible fee for such a Flat version?

    John Unitt 12/08/19 4:44 AM Reply


  • no selections today, did find 3 that looked interesting when having a look and will have a small ew patent on them.
    Kempton 2-40. Exmoor Mist 20-1
    Kempton 3-10. Martabot 13-2
    Ludlow 4-30. Red Admirable 10-1

    martin whittle 12/08/19 4:44 AM Reply


    • keep going back to the 4-30 and just have this niggling feeling i might have overlooked Boher Lad and at 22-1 might be worth risking a couple of quid ew

      martin whittle 12/08/19 5:56 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily AW
    W 5.25 – Dotty Grand on 3rd run @ 50
    3m+
    L 4.00 – Huff and Puff on 1st run @ 10
    GL

    Titus 12/08/19 4:44 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Wolverhampton
    4.50 French Mix
    7.25 Mossy’s Lodge

    ELITE BETs
    2.20 Ludlow Longhousesignora

    Colin

    cleafe 12/08/19 4:44 AM Reply


    • You cant keep a good man down. Colin landed the 150/1 double on the Golf and so has made another step forward to the punting hall of fame.

      martin colwell 12/08/19 5:56 AM Reply


      • Can’t argue with that; great tipping by Col

        Andrew Gilmore 12/08/19 11:02 AM Reply


  • Hi all, my three for today.

    LUDLOW 14:20 CARAS WAY @ 3.5 BOG
    KEMPTON 14:40 SONG SAA @ 9.5
    LUDLOW 14:55 STAMP YOUR FEET @ 5.0 BOG

    All 1 Pt Win
    G.L. Solent

    SOLENT 12/08/19 4:44 AM Reply


  • JOSH and anyone else who is interested. Posted this at week- end but probably at wrong time. Out nearly all day hence early post. Hope its of some use !
    TRAINER TRACK STATS – supplied FREE by Matt Bisogno, Geegeez
    I m sure some people will have seen Josh recommending this FREE report, and will have got it or pondered. For what its worth i m pleased i did and i think it’s terrific. A great addition to anyone’s armory i feel and especially those who can add there own analysis to it – unfortunately i’m time limited on that score at present.
    For those who haven’t seen it there is an A team list of 45 trainer/track combos and they have a terrific record, and then the ‘Director’s cut’ ( the B list if you like) which comprise 61 next best combos.
    Out of interest there was a cracker at Doncaster Saturday where Nadiatak Won at 12 (BSP 15.0) in a 4 horse race, although it was on the B list and so i didn t back it (Mr Sod and all that )
    Matt does warn that backing all qualifiers is not likely to result in the high Win rate (40% for the A team) continuing nor the high ROI (102% for the A s) so caution required. Out of interest i emailed Matt to see if they have a ‘Flat’ equivalent, but sadly they don’t and although no plans at present he said ‘we’ll see nearer the time’
    So JOSH, any chance of a bit of a subtle elbow there ? not sure what others think but i would be happy to pay a sensible fee for such a Flat version?

    John Unitt 28/01/19 6:23 AM Reply


    • Hi John, yep no idea on his plans for the flat version, but i’m sure if he does one it will be free again but who knows. They do post the qualifiers for free which I assume is useful albeit I don’t follow them as i’ve got too much to think about my end, inc my own performance etc. If he does a free promo again i’ll be sure to email out again no doubt as I did with the jumps. There were a few people who started following in Nov and i’ve no idea how they’ve done systematically but certainly a good ‘way in’.
      Josh

      Josh 28/01/19 10:27 AM Reply


  • no selections today, did find 3 that looked interesting when having a look and will have a small ew patent on them.
    Kempton 2-40. Exmoor Mist 20-1
    Kempton 3-10. Martabot 13-2
    Ludlow 4-30. Red Admirable 10-1

    martin whittle 28/01/19 6:57 AM Reply


    • keep going back to the 4-30 and just have this niggling feeling i might have overlooked Boher Lad and at 22-1 might be worth risking a couple of quid ew

      martin whittle 28/01/19 8:46 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily AW
    W 5.25 – Dotty Grand on 3rd run @ 50
    3m+
    L 4.00 – Huff and Puff on 1st run @ 10
    GL

    Titus 28/01/19 9:21 AM Reply


    • Another winner today Titus always thankful for you posting these every day

      christopher jones 28/01/19 4:20 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Wolverhampton
    4.50 French Mix
    7.25 Mossy’s Lodge

    ELITE BETs
    2.20 Ludlow Longhousesignora

    Colin

    cleafe 28/01/19 10:11 AM Reply


    • You cant keep a good man down. Colin landed the 150/1 double on the Golf and so has made another step forward to the punting hall of fame.

      martin colwell 28/01/19 10:14 AM Reply


    • Nice way to start your recovery Colin with two golf winners and two horses today. As you know I only bet 3/1+ so missed French Mix. It did drift to 3/1 just before the off but I missed it. Damn haha.

      Ken McKenzie 28/01/19 5:38 PM Reply


  • Hi all, my three for today.

    LUDLOW 14:20 CARAS WAY @ 3.5 BOG
    KEMPTON 14:40 SONG SAA @ 9.5
    LUDLOW 14:55 STAMP YOUR FEET @ 5.0 BOG

    All 1 Pt Win
    G.L. Solent

    SOLENT 28/01/19 10:30 AM Reply


    • Good winner today thanks
      Colin

      cleafe 28/01/19 3:13 PM Reply


    • Yes top work, George with 2 winners today already, I know how this script goes given i’ve tipped one to come haha. Well done.

      Josh 28/01/19 3:14 PM Reply


  • Am I right in thinking that Traf69 does the SOTD on GG’s?

    Tim Hanson 28/01/19 10:53 AM Reply


    • Yep, that’s him. ‘Geegeez’ Chris.

      Josh 28/01/19 10:55 AM Reply


      • Guilty as charged, m’lud.

        traf69 28/01/19 11:00 AM Reply


        • Hi Chris….. I’m trialing GG’s Gold on the free offer at the moment, comparing it with Proform and TBH finding some elements of it to be a lot quicker in terms of getting your hands on the relevant data. Only major disappointing thing for me is that everything seems to be geared around SP which I’m assuming is ISP with no references whatsoever to BFSP.

          Is this the case or am I missing something?…. like a hidden switch somewhere in the set up that changes the output.

          Tim Hanson 28/01/19 11:21 AM Reply


          • Doing a little more digging on GG’z site and I notice that you use BFSP to calculate your P/L stats. Is that just a one off thing as far as GG’z is concerned?

            Tim Hanson 28/01/19 1:11 PM Reply


            • My SotD P/L is calculated at advised/BOG odds NOT at betfair SP.

              I use Betfair SP data to highlight the profitability of the angles I’m quoting to back up a selection, but my returns are at the odds available at the time of posting (from at least two main-name bookies)

              I explain this at the foot of every single day’s post.

              traf69 28/01/19 2:35 PM Reply


          • We don’t have access to historical BFSP data for commercial usage, the licensing costs are too prohibitive.

            traf69 28/01/19 2:32 PM Reply


            • Chris wrote:- I use Betfair SP data to highlight the profitability of the angles I’m quoting to back up a selection, but my returns are at the odds available at the time of posting (from at least two main-name bookies).

              I get this…. but don’t understand the relevance of BFSP data if you are calculating results to BOG.

              I also get this (with reference to my original question), but assuming you are using GG’z software to produce your SOTD bet, how come I can’t get my version of Gold to produce stat’s to BFSP?

              Tim Hanson 28/01/19 2:48 PM Reply


              • Hey Chris…. I just figured out the answer to my second question. Obviously you are using Proform too! TBH I find that a little disingenuous. Hmmmm.

                Tim Hanson 28/01/19 2:55 PM Reply


                • I think he uses HRB, not proform, which could be wrong. That is primarily a systems building piece of software, and Chris clearly uses various stats/angles to help come to a betting decision, as well as Gold no doubt. BFSP data for the stats research has relevance doesn’t it? That’s separate from the tip at the end, but if you have a problem with anything on there please take it up with them in private, this isn’t geegeez customer service centre 🙂
                  I have both Geegeez and HRB and for me they do different things and I couldn’t live without both, but clearly you could just focus on one or the other. It depends on how you wish to approach the game, SOTD is only ever seen as a stand alone tipping element really.

                  Gold doesn’t have stats to BFSP as Chris as answered above, it would cost too much.

                  Josh 28/01/19 3:02 PM Reply


                  • Point taken Josh. I was only giving it a go cos you offered up a link to the free trial and thought it could be interesting to compare it with what I’m already doing.

                    Tim Hanson 28/01/19 3:28 PM Reply


                    • oh there’s nothing wrong with that, and general discussion fine etc, as is the odd chat/question etc, esp as i’ve pushed it, but clearly not the place for any in depth discussion into the mechanics , or what’s behind x, y z. I wouldn’t be judging it on SOTD, but that’s there for people who want a daily tip to follow. I have nothing but positives for it but have never tried pro-form, partly as thought cost was prohibitive as I thought , £195 for 8 weeks verses £72 or something for same for Geegeez- they do different things and are probably for slightly different audiences but of course the point in any trial is to test for yourself and to see if useful etc.

                      In general if something is good to SP, it’s generally going to be better to BFSP, or is that incorrect?

                      Josh 28/01/19 3:52 PM


                    • Generally it’s always better to SP, but you have to be careful with things like BOG cos it all depends which way the market goes. If it shortens substantially BOG is always best, if it drifts badly BFSP can be as much as around twice BOG. Proform is expensive, but you would need to factor in the cost of HRB to get a fairer comparison. Did take a quick look at their site but strangely they don’t give a price.

                      Tim Hanson 28/01/19 4:06 PM


  • Thanks for highlighting the danger horse yet again, Josh – this could be a new strategy….:-)

    Mark Curtis 12/08/19 3:09 AM Reply


    • haha, should have moved him into daily tips really! Thought he was worth saver, did look most likely winner to my eyes, just that 7/2 about one that hadn’t proven he stayed, but maybe something psychological in that use of bold! Mine ran well, no complaints, that thinking will find enough, and those with the hot form lines etc have generally run their race, just need a few more winners. They’ll come.

      Josh 12/08/19 4:28 AM Reply


  • Is nothing from me for the afternoon. A couple of interest, but come with snags attached. Back at 4.30 with Kempers.

    Tim Hanson 28/01/19 12:28 PM Reply


  • Tricky cards so nothing stands out…poss e/ way angle into the 13.45 at Ludlow with 8 runners at the moment (but watch if number is reduced to seven before the off..yep I am that cynical) if backing Captain Kissinger against the Nicholls fav….currently the fav is 8/11 but overall Nicholl’s hurdlers 18% at the course so should be a 9/2 shot so no value backing that (not to say it will not win)…favs in the race at 42% which equates to about 11/8 so still no value there…..Whittingdon, trainer of Captain Kissinger, is 14% with his hurdlers here, so should be a 6/1 shot..it is a course and distance winner which may well have been a fluke….but at the prices and the 8 runners may be worth playing…The only other race is the 16.00 at Ludlow but has only 6 runners….Francis’s selection (one of two) Mistress Massini is a course winner and has won over the distance (NOT a C/D winner)….Honeyball is 1 from 2 with his chasers so the price should be evens so at 13/8 represents value but favs 28% represents a price of arpound 5/2 so on that score is not value (again this does not mean this will not win….Not sure about Francis’s other selection…priced at 6/1 I make it a 13/3 shot so near that. Hey Bill is an interesting runner..trainer 29% with chasers. jockey 32%… should be 12/5 price but is in at around 11/4 which gives it a 26% chance of winning so is a value bet and has won at the course….The other horse is Smugglers Blues..trainer is 25% so should be around 3/1 so at 6/1 is value..jockey is 23% so gd value….Racing post comment is that it is a points winner and unexposed, so does have a chance….Conclusion is that is a very tricky race with a number of chances and as there are only 6 runners there is no eachway option so good luck if playing and I hope Francis can get the one two in a straight forecast…Good luck Francis and to anyone playing in whatever you back.

    silver 28/01/19 12:33 PM Reply


    • Got the value angle correct on the fav in Ludlow 1.45 but way out in picking Captain Kissinger…should have laid the fav!!

      silver 28/01/19 1:51 PM Reply


    • Well…what do I know!….absolutely nothing lol!

      silver 28/01/19 4:08 PM Reply


  • Sorry Josh…just seen you have tipped Smugglers Blues in the 16.00 at Ludlow , I meant REVERSE forecast of course with your selection included with the two of Francis’s oops!! if it were an 8 runner race your selection, to my eyes, would be the value bet..Gd lck

    silver 28/01/19 12:49 PM Reply


    • GL Silver, yep hopefully my write up does the brief RP comment justice haha. IF he stays, and that is an IF, and IF he sees out his race (i do have a niggle about how he’s seemingly cut out twice, but I could be over-thinking that) an EW bet won’t matter, I really don’t think this lot will live with him if he runs his race etc. As per write up, i mean this mark could be very lenient and he may just have too much class for this lot put together. If he doesn’t run his race then Hey Bill or the fav should be mopping up.

      Josh 28/01/19 12:57 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh…just watch, Hey Bill will dot up and scupper all of us!

        silver 28/01/19 1:12 PM Reply


        • Oh he may do, but I don’t think the level of his form is that great, but it is better than what fav has achieved to date, and he’s been a tad disappointing so far this season but yard are going better and a weaker race than he ran in LTO. Still not 100% he fully stays this trip but then he won’t have to if fav and mine don’t perform, and he will stay better than the rest, on what they’ve done to date- all an opinion on price of course, didn’t think he was overpriced but then I suppose if I view it as a 3 horse race he is, but more value in mine, hopefully! I could do with a winner which is never a good place to be in haha. I’ll prepare for the Hey Bill hack up job!! 🙂

          Josh 28/01/19 1:20 PM Reply


          • Ditto… you may well be right and the choice was made on price being the best value in the race according to the criteria in the post but a winner or two would lift the spirits certainly…seen my bank dwindle over the past month despite a good start…last Saturday was a nightmare of a day….couldn’ t pick my nose, let alone winners and yesterday a short odds on shot winning (which I did not back as odds on are never a bet for me because of price as if you have £10,000 why risk losing that by backing an 8/11 shot….if you have that kind of money there is no sense in that unless money is no object) is not significant to me, so hope the March-October season helps in re- addressing the balance. Not even going to speculate about Hey Bill hacking up!!!lol!!

            silver 28/01/19 2:09 PM Reply


  • Tim… HRB is ‘only’ £10 pm min, it’s a min ‘donation’ can pay more if you wish. That has everything to BFSP. So that + GG (if you got annual at GG at 300, + £120, = £420… versus, £1267.50 for pro form annual – 6.5 x 8 week blocks, unless they do a cheaper annual option) Anyway, each to their own but that’s why these things are there to try etc. There’s a set of tools out there for everyone, whether paid or free etc.
    Josh

    Josh 28/01/19 4:16 PM Reply


    • Bloody hell that’s cheap! I notice they had a free trial offer too when I went to their site. Might give that one a go too after the GG’s one runs out.

      Tim Hanson 28/01/19 4:45 PM Reply


  • Wolves’ tonight….

    6.25 This Girl………. 7.0
    8.25 Minoria……….. 6.0

    Tim Hanson 28/01/19 4:48 PM Reply


  • Thanks for highlighting the danger horse yet again, Josh – this could be a new strategy….:-)

    Mark Curtis 28/01/19 4:57 PM Reply


    • haha, should have moved him into daily tips really! Thought he was worth saver, did look most likely winner to my eyes, just that 7/2 about one that hadn’t proven he stayed, but maybe something psychological in that use of bold! Mine ran well, no complaints, that thinking will find enough, and those with the hot form lines etc have generally run their race, just need a few more winners. They’ll come.

      Josh 28/01/19 5:45 PM Reply


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