Members Daily Post: 26/01/19 (complete)

Best of tips x1, tips 1.50 + 4.10 , Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Cheltenham

1.50 –

Janika   (micro +class) 14,30  w2 H1 I3 7/2 2nd 

Ballyhill   (m runs)  w2 H3 I1 7/1 3rd 

4.10 –

Flash The Steel   (m runs) 14,30  w1 7/2 2nd 

Bennys Bridge   (m’s TJC and runs)(added info: hncp debut) G3 6/1 WON 8/1 

Doncaster

12.55 – Always Resolute   (all Hc’s)  w2 H3 I1 G3 3/1 S4 WON 3/1>9/4 

3.15 – Dingo Dollar   (all Hc’s,HcH, m’s dist and age) H3 I1 G3 5/2 S4 UP

3.50 – Mahlermade   (all Hc’s,HcCh,m dist) H1 I3 G1 5/2 S4 2nd 

 

Uttoxeter

1.05 –

Comber Mill   (HcH, m dist) G1  10/1 S1 S2 fell 

Blue Bullet   (m class) 9/1 UP

2.15 – Louse Talk   (nov HcCh) 18/1 S2A UP

2.50 – Supremely Lucky   (HcH, m age) (added info: hncp debut)   ES+ H3 6/1 S3A UP

3.25 – Jet Set   (nov HcCh) 11/1 S2 Fell 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -5.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/9,2p, -1)

 

Big Race Tips

#1 1.50 Chelt

Brelan D’As – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP

Casse Tete – 1 point win – 25/1 (lad/BV/Coral) 20-22/1 (others) PU

(main danger, Ballyhill, to my eyes)

#2 4.10 Chelt

Our Merlin – 1 point win – 17/2 (BetfS/PP/Uni) 8/1 (gen) Fell

Champagne City – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP

(my shortlist: those two, +fav, + Equus A)

 

(Skybet chase, from the free post.. gone with Art Mauresque and Willie Boy, 1 point win each. I just can’t help myself in taking on an 11/4 shot in these races, time will tell whether that’s foolish or not!) 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/147,66p, +7.8, 1 point win)

3.25 Uttox – Jet Set – 12/1 (bet365/WH) 11/1 (gen) UR first

1.50 –

Brelan D’As… well he’s weaker in the market than i’d have liked but I didn’t think this looked the strongest of G3s. Nicholls won this race last year with Frodon and had a second the year before that. The horse is in form, unexposed over fences, his races have been working out well enough and I thought 20f around here on ok ground may be idea for him. I’m not sure he stayed 22f in soft at Newbury a couple of runs back, and LTO he was outpaced before staying on. I thought he’d have some pace to aim at/settle off, and that could bring about more, and may help him jump better. He looks to be getting it all together and I thought he was interesting at his price. As I ponder it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s aimed at the Grand Annual but he runs as if this test could be ideal. We will find out but I think he’s here to run his race and we shall see if he’s good enough.

Casse Tete… clearly a poke and it may not amount to much, i’d like to see him nibbled at, but I thought that this may have been the plan. He doesn’t seem to like going RH, despite a decent win at Sandown early on in his chase career. LTO was effectively his first race of the season and he was never ever put into it. It looked like they wanted to just get him around but it was a tad better than the losing distance to my eyes. He’s only 1lb higher than when winning well at Warwick, beating a 150s horse, albeit they did set it up for him. He should be staying on well up this hill and he has some ok Cheltenham form. He ran in this last year when it was a bog, and I don’t think he wants it that testing. He ran a few times over 3m+, including in last year’s Ultima – where he was bang there in 4th before they turned for home. Again the ground/trip found him out there. He’s still lightly raced over fences, esp in these conditions. He does have a few more LH handicap chases in him and I wanted to roll the dice at 22s/25s. Maybe today isn’t the day, but he could out-run these odds.

Bally Hill is a danger and the solid one I think, and I can see why Nick likes him esp EW. This jockey rides the track well enough, and with his claim he’s only 3lb above his highest winning mark, and he’s not exactly overly exposed. I thought he may get tapped for toe on this ground around here, but it could be sticky/testing enough, who knows, and he rarely runs a bad race. That may be enough. I was happy to leave Janika as I thought he may want it softer and 7/2 for a horse’s first run around Cheltenham, esp over fences, is always short enough I think. I was happy to leave the rest for one reason or another but of course may not have mentioned the winner!

4.10 –

Our Merlin is just tough and with this claim is 3lb lower than when finishing under 3l 3rd in this race last year. He will try and make all here, will appreciate the slightly better ground I think, esp given his size- and he may appreciate the lighter weight on his back. He will be the one to pass as they turn for home and it’s not impossible he can get them on the stretch. He will just keep fighting and if he runs his race should be thereabouts after the last. His attitude could see him win this, although of course he’s open to attack from anything that may have more up their sleeve.

Champagne City… well 10s is just too big here for another prominent racer. I’m hoping these two may fill those positions all the way round. I suspect he needed the run LTO and this feels more like a C3 than a C2, and along with Equus he’s the only C2 winner in the field. He was fresh LTO but jumped well and ran a decent enough race. The horse in front of him there won NTO. He’s yet to finish out of the places in three runs at Cheltenham, Burke is back on who’s won on him before, and Tom George has won this race before, which interested me. The horse’s best runs in recent season have been on his second start after a break and I think this ground could be idea. I don’t think he wants proper good, but I don’t think he wants it proper soft either. Tom George is going well now, better than when this one last ran, and I thought he’d out-run these odds. I’m excited to see what he can do as he’s got the ability to win this.

I can leave Flast The Steel at 7/2 although I won’t be shocked if he takes this. He’s progressive but runs here for the first time, can be keen (but may appreciate the pace/could bring out more) is up two classes and he was scrappy at the odd hurdler LTO, especially when trying to close at Donny up the home straight. He won well enough and is the right fav, but I was happy to take him on at those odds. Equus is a danger, but there’s a chance of a shower later on ground already Good to Soft and I have a niggle about the ground. He can be keen (may also appreciate the pace) but will come from further back. I think he may relish the trip and if you wanted another one onside for change, he’d probably be it for me, but some niggles at what was 6s when looking. I thought that was about right and of course he has to prove he can win from this new career high mark. I was happy to leave the rest for one reason or another. I wasn’t sure Maquisard would stay this trip around here, and I can’t quite understand the nibble for Flashing Glance. They remove the hood and he can be keen but Dicky has been booked – I wasn’t overly impressed with his run LTo and he does need more here. I’m not sure he’s good enough but maybe i’ve read him wrong. Bennys is too inexperienced for me in a race like this, at again what was 6s, for a yard that still isn’t firing fully, but they will at some point soon you feel.

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3.25 Uttox

Jet Set – 11s / 12s seemed big enough to my eyes for this one. She’s a point winner having her second run over fences, having UR a few runs back on her first chase start. She ran well two starts ago which to my eyes is the best piece of handicapping form in this – that Aintree race was won by Midnight Shadow, with 135 and 143 horses in front of her..she stayed on well enough there, proving soft is fine, and it makes this mark look workable. This is the furthest she’s run under rules today and looks sure to appreciate these conditions. She knows how to win under rules and the 1st CP caught my eye. They may help her sharpen up her jumping, and Charlie is 11/50,18p, +35 when putting them on first time in handicap chases (inc novice) which I thought interesting enough. He does well at this track, the jockey is in form, and she just looks overpriced to my eyes. With a clear round, and if she built on that run two starts back, she’d win this I think. LTO could have happened too quickly for her, and they did make plenty of use of her there and she’s come down a couple more pounds. I thought she looked interesting enough in an open race. Fingers crossed for a fluent round.

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I’ll mention Terrefort in the big one at Chelt.. I’m not tipping in that race, and 7/2 probably only fair but if you wanted an interest in the race, he would be the one for me. Clearly a problem LTo it could be he needs this/isn’t spot on, but at his best I think he’d win this. Elegant E had a very hard race LTO and Frodon has to prove his stamina- which he may do, but 5/2 was short enough to find out to my eyes. This for me is about whether Terrefort runs his race.

 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

1.05 U – Wazowski 8/1 UP

4.10 C – Chti Balko 18/1 UP

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

3.00 C – Jarveys Plate 11/4 UP

3.35 C – Aye Aye Charlie 50/1 UP

4.10 C – Bennys Bridge 6/1  WON 6/1>8/1 

Saturday TJC (14/1<) 

1.50 C – War Sound 14/1 UP

Richard Hobson (33/1< guide) 

12.55 D – Defi Sacre 5/1 UP

Irish Angles 

12.00 F – Beyond The Law (12/1< best) 14/1 2nd 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow 

2.40 D – Chica Buena 11/2 UP

3.35 C – Paisley Park 9/2 WON 9/2>10/3 

4.10 C – Equus Amadeus 6/1 UP / Flashing Glance 14/1 3rd 

Jockeys/Chasers

3.15 D – Warriors Tale (9/1<) 7/1 UP

3.50 D – Cougars Gold 4/1 WON 4/1> 3/1 

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide) 

4.25 D – Paris Dixie 25/1 

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

Saturday Big Race Stats/Pointers HERE>>>

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A quick word on Tim... well this expert in our midst knows the time of day with his specialism for sure. A 35 BFSP winner on Friday evening, with his ‘min BFSP odds’ bets, which of course you can place any time after he posts 🙂 It’s been a bloody good start… 39 bets / 8 winners / +82.2 BFSP. Now, I haven’t backed any of them, more fool me, but I never like diving in straight away. I know it’s small numbers but given how he’s described his approach and the results so far, I think it’s fair to say Tim’s musings are worth keeping an eye on, if you can. He’s clearly got his approach nailed down and these results would appear to reflect his own private success. Anyway, I thought i’d share said results just in case you were unaware, so that you can make informed decisions as with the comments etc, as always. I hope I haven’t cursed you now Tim, apols in advance! 🙂 And thanks for posting. As always, if you start following anything, always start small, and never worry about missed winners.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

96 Responses

  1. Would like to thank everyone who placed their good wishes on the board, and agree with Josh post op trying to find winners will pass the time in between the exercises to become fit and active again, will not guarantee everyday will have to see.
    Once again thank you all.
    Colin.

    1. All the best fella, make sure you are back on here as quick as possible, my eyesight ain`t too good these days either. Need someone to keep me on the straight and narrow, God speed!!

  2. Highway One O One Cheltenham 13:15 1pt e/w 8/1
    Ballyhill Cheltenham 13:50 1pt e/w 7/1
    Champagne City Cheltenham 16:10 1pt e/w 10/1
    Art Mauresque Doncaster 15:15 1pt e/w 10/1

  3. Well done Tim. You seem to have something going at present.

    Tips: I do like a few at Cheltenham yesterday.

    1.15 Spiritofthegames, I know he has top weight here but he has only had two runs over fences and they were both solid efforts. Although this is a class 2 race I am not excited by the opposition and so at 11/2 I would go 1 point win.
    1.50 Janika, I was impressed by its last run when it won impressively, his first in this country. Some solid opposition here but nothing special in my eyes. I am OK with 7/2 and so will have 2 points win.
    2.25 Valtor, another Hendo horse who won well LTO. I do not like Frodon at this distance and the price. Terrefort was poor LTO but I do fear Elegant Escape. But at 6/1 I can take the chance on Valtor, so 1 point win.
    3.35 Paisley Park, i do feel that this horse is going forward and could be a player at the festival in the stayers hurdle. So that being the case i think that he can/should win this. So 1 point win at 5/1. I may also have a few quid on Agrapart at 20/1.

    Good luck.

    1. Systems selections – 3.25 Utt, Belle Empress 10/1, 1 point each way. Emma Lavelle handicapper 5/1+.

      Good luck.

  4. Well, after going close the other day I`m back and whomever says Ruby and Barry G are done needs to take a look at how he rode the couple of winners he had the other day at Gowran Park, he will still be a force come Cheltenham time, make sure you keep your eye on him and BG when they are on the supposed second string or riding for an unfashionable trainer.
    Onto today / tomorrow and Josh will be happy with two I pick , but, not the others..
    13:50 Cheltenham
    BRELAN D`AS 8/1 gen 1pt win
    As i was saying Mr G rides Cheltenham as well as anyone and I think in this one he has a live contender for this and then a big race in March… He is still improving and could be anything, with BG taking the ride over Bryony it makes me thnk JP has targetted a big race at Cheltenham and wants to see how much he can get out of this horse, take nothing away from Bryony she is a good jockey, but, BG has a touch more experience, only just though haha. 8/1 is value.
    BALLYHILL 7/1 gen 1pt win
    Now he owes me for last time as i thought he didn`t run his race, but, Aso is something else and now he has another chance to redeem himself, some of the NTD horses have looked a bit jaded recently, so, we will see if the early season maestro can get some of these right for these big races. If he is up with the pace this time I feel Ballyhill should triumph up the hill if in a battle this time!

    15:15 Doncaster
    BRIAN BORANHA 20/1 1pt win gen
    The way he won the Durham National lto was impressive and he gets on well with Henry Brooke. I know he doesn`t qualify on the stats Josh posted the other day, but, he qualifies on mine which is jockey gets on with the horse… at 20/1 it`s worth taking a punt that he may just shock some of the older, more seasoned brigade.
    Still improving, will love the ground and jockey is a bit of a workaholic over priced i feel at 20/1.
    WARRIORS TALE 7/1 1pt win gen
    Out of the 2 Nicholls ones I have gone for the battle/ bruiser, when the chips are down this fella keeps fighting and i believe he has more about him than Art Mauresque, could be wrong, just thought he gave in too easily against Traffic Fluide lto and this is a race for battlers / bruisers.
    His fighting abilities were just inched out with the brave Wakanda in this race last year and this race throws up good finishes time and again.

    As per usual , hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you pick tomorrow.

    1. GL Stewart, I hope you’re right about Brelan and wrong about the rest haha – albeit if i’m wrong, clearly I hope you mop up with yours, and Ballyhill for both you and Nick. Hopefully an exciting afternoon awaits! Gulp.

  5. Would like to thank everyone who placed their good wishes on the board, and agree with Josh post op trying to find winners will pass the time in between the exercises to become fit and active again, will not guarantee everyday will have to see.
    Once again thank you all.
    Colin.

    1. All the best fella, make sure you are back on here as quick as possible, my eyesight ain`t too good these days either. Need someone to keep me on the straight and narrow, God speed!!

  6. Highway One O One Cheltenham 13:15 1pt e/w 8/1
    Ballyhill Cheltenham 13:50 1pt e/w 7/1
    Champagne City Cheltenham 16:10 1pt e/w 10/1
    Art Mauresque Doncaster 15:15 1pt e/w 10/1

  7. Well done Tim. You seem to have something going at present.

    Tips: I do like a few at Cheltenham yesterday.

    1.15 Spiritofthegames, I know he has top weight here but he has only had two runs over fences and they were both solid efforts. Although this is a class 2 race I am not excited by the opposition and so at 11/2 I would go 1 point win.
    1.50 Janika, I was impressed by its last run when it won impressively, his first in this country. Some solid opposition here but nothing special in my eyes. I am OK with 7/2 and so will have 2 points win.
    2.25 Valtor, another Hendo horse who won well LTO. I do not like Frodon at this distance and the price. Terrefort was poor LTO but I do fear Elegant Escape. But at 6/1 I can take the chance on Valtor, so 1 point win.
    3.35 Paisley Park, i do feel that this horse is going forward and could be a player at the festival in the stayers hurdle. So that being the case i think that he can/should win this. So 1 point win at 5/1. I may also have a few quid on Agrapart at 20/1.

    Good luck.

    1. Systems selections – 3.25 Utt, Belle Empress 10/1, 1 point each way. Emma Lavelle handicapper 5/1+.

      Good luck.

  8. Well, after going close the other day I`m back and whomever says Ruby and Barry G are done needs to take a look at how he rode the couple of winners he had the other day at Gowran Park, he will still be a force come Cheltenham time, make sure you keep your eye on him and BG when they are on the supposed second string or riding for an unfashionable trainer.
    Onto today / tomorrow and Josh will be happy with two I pick , but, not the others..
    13:50 Cheltenham
    BRELAN D`AS 8/1 gen 1pt win
    As i was saying Mr G rides Cheltenham as well as anyone and I think in this one he has a live contender for this and then a big race in March… He is still improving and could be anything, with BG taking the ride over Bryony it makes me thnk JP has targetted a big race at Cheltenham and wants to see how much he can get out of this horse, take nothing away from Bryony she is a good jockey, but, BG has a touch more experience, only just though haha. 8/1 is value.
    BALLYHILL 7/1 gen 1pt win
    Now he owes me for last time as i thought he didn`t run his race, but, Aso is something else and now he has another chance to redeem himself, some of the NTD horses have looked a bit jaded recently, so, we will see if the early season maestro can get some of these right for these big races. If he is up with the pace this time I feel Ballyhill should triumph up the hill if in a battle this time!

    15:15 Doncaster
    BRIAN BORANHA 20/1 1pt win gen
    The way he won the Durham National lto was impressive and he gets on well with Henry Brooke. I know he doesn`t qualify on the stats Josh posted the other day, but, he qualifies on mine which is jockey gets on with the horse… at 20/1 it`s worth taking a punt that he may just shock some of the older, more seasoned brigade.
    Still improving, will love the ground and jockey is a bit of a workaholic over priced i feel at 20/1.
    WARRIORS TALE 7/1 1pt win gen
    Out of the 2 Nicholls ones I have gone for the battle/ bruiser, when the chips are down this fella keeps fighting and i believe he has more about him than Art Mauresque, could be wrong, just thought he gave in too easily against Traffic Fluide lto and this is a race for battlers / bruisers.
    His fighting abilities were just inched out with the brave Wakanda in this race last year and this race throws up good finishes time and again.

    As per usual , hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you pick tomorrow.

    1. GL Stewart, I hope you’re right about Brelan and wrong about the rest haha – albeit if i’m wrong, clearly I hope you mop up with yours, and Ballyhill for both you and Nick. Hopefully an exciting afternoon awaits! Gulp.

    1. There aren’t any rules as such. I always start analysing a race with the premise that every horse in the field has some chance of winning, which isn’t a rule, it’s a fact. If there is a rule it’s don’t back exposed horses, but if that is a rule I broke it a couple of weeks back when I put up Tropics. Was a ridiculous price given the stats for the race conditions on the day, but a winner’s a winner.

      If we are talking purely about selecting the horse to bet, I don’t have any rules at all. I make a judgement purely on the basis of what I believe is likely to happen given the conditions of the race on the day and how they are likely to influence and effect the running of my selection. From that I can assess what I believe is the true chances of it winning. If I can get odds in excess of those chances the bet goes down.

  9. today’s selections. prices from last night must have forgot to press post comment.
    Uttoxeter 1-05. Comber Mill 10-1
    Uttoxeter 2-50. Tawseef 25-1
    Doncaster 3-15. Federici 11-1.
    Cheltenham 1-50. Ballyhill 7-1
    Cheltenham 3-35, Wholestone 9-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  10. May i just add my good wishes to Colin for a successful op and a speedy recovery.
    A big thanks to all who post selections/opinions on here ,

  11. Hi all, my three for today,

    DONCASTER 15:15 WARRIORS TALE @ 9.0 BOG
    UTTOXETER 15:25 MOLLY CAREW @ 6.0 BOG
    CHELTENHAM 15:35 MIDNIGHT SHADOW @ 9.0 BOG

    All 1 Pt Win

    G.L. Solent

  12. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT+4.61

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT +7.58

    1pt win 2.15 U – Cesar RT Rosalie 8/1
    2pt win 3.25 U – Skewiff 8/1

  13. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 4.10 – John Constable on 6th run @ 40
    D 12.55 – Quest For Life on 3rd run @ 12
    U 1.05 – Wazowski on 1st run @ 9
    F 2.10 – Poseidon on 3rd run @ 12
    AW
    C 8.15 – Highwayman on 7th run @ 10
    Festival
    C 12.50 – Sizng Platinum on 5th run @ 28
    C 4.10 – Nelsons Touch on 1st run @ 10
    Aw
    L 3.40 – Sea Fox on 4th run @ 33
    3m+
    U 2.15 – Billy Bronco on 3rd run @ 9
    GL

  14. Just a few that came out top of the systems I use, so see what they do…don’t advise anyone to follow them just for information…
    1540. Ling. Chevallier.
    13.35 Fairyhouse…Kingston Girl
    13.30. Doncaster Ballyword
    14.05 Doncaster Commodore Bay
    14.40 Doncasrer Lady Buttons
    13.50. Chelt. Ballyhill/Brelan D’as
    14.50 Uttox. Burrows Park/Supremely Lucky
    15.15. Donc. 00 Seven/Dingo Dollar
    15.25. Uttox. Molly Carew/Jet Set/ Lostnfound
    16.10 Chelt. Equus Amadeus
    15.00. Chelt. Jarveys Plate
    12.40. Chelt Nelson River/Comber Mill
    15.35. Chelt Aux Ptits Soins/Uknowhatimeanharry/Wholestone
    13.05 Uttox. The Crazed Moon/Delface/Hollywood All Stars.

    Well there are enough selections to see how they fare, just need some of Tim’s excellence to sprinkle over them…well done to you Tim…here’s hoping we all can do as well…good luck with whatever you back today.

    1. Thanks Tim….should have stuck with Francis (well done) instead of my systems…thought I was going to have a good day when The Crazed Moon and Delface were 1st and 2nd in 13.05 but with the exception of Lady Buttons winning in 14.40 it was disappointing with a couple of unseats and a faller so work to do on the systems approach…onwards and hopefully upwards!!

  15. First race of interest for me is 1.30 so I’ll post at 1.00 with an update for Chelmsford around 4.00.

  16. My Dad had his hip done 2 years ago and it gave him a whole new lease of life! Good luck Colin, you’ll be fine!

    Cheers
    Doug

  17. Uttox.
    1:05 Blue Bullet 12/1 (14’s about)
    Back over hurdles and 4lb lower than when 2nd last time. Blinkers on and ground should suit.

    2:15 Seaston Spirit 12/1
    Faired well in last two chases and has his ground today.

    3:25 Lostnfound 12/1
    2nd last time when reverting to hurdles after a wind op and back chasing today. Course winner (hurdles).

    Chris R.

  18. Afternoon’s……

    Fair’ 1.35 Tintangle………….. 8.0
    Don’ 2.05 Bailarico…………… 5.5
    Don’ 2.40 Indifatigable……… 7.4
    Chel’ 3.00 Buster Valentine… 11.0
    Don’ 4.25 Toodlepip…………. 12.0

    1. There aren’t any rules as such. I always start analysing a race with the premise that every horse in the field has some chance of winning, which isn’t a rule, it’s a fact. If there is a rule it’s don’t back exposed horses, but if that is a rule I broke it a couple of weeks back when I put up Tropics. Was a ridiculous price given the stats for the race conditions on the day, but a winner’s a winner.

      If we are talking purely about selecting the horse to bet, I don’t have any rules at all. I make a judgement purely on the basis of what I believe is likely to happen given the conditions of the race on the day and how they are likely to influence and effect the running of my selection. From that I can assess what I believe is the true chances of it winning. If I can get odds in excess of those chances the bet goes down.

  19. today’s selections. prices from last night must have forgot to press post comment.
    Uttoxeter 1-05. Comber Mill 10-1
    Uttoxeter 2-50. Tawseef 25-1
    Doncaster 3-15. Federici 11-1.
    Cheltenham 1-50. Ballyhill 7-1
    Cheltenham 3-35, Wholestone 9-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  20. COLINS BETS
    2.30Lingfield Aquerooo BOG 11/4
    6.45 Chelmsford Its All A Joke 7/2

    ELITE BETS
    No bet today

    Not much today taxi booked 9.50 so put them up early save messing later
    Colin

    1. Saturday in Sheffield. Isn’t that the day John Crawshaw goes to the hospital to practise making loin chops?

    2. All the best Colin, my dad is having his hip done soon so any good news would be appreciated. Hope it goes well
      Harry

      1. All will be well Colin as long as you get out on the crutches as quickly as poss. No gain without pain and a new man in a few weeks. If it’s the left hip get/borrow an auto car, you’ll be back driving short journeys in a couple of weeks or so.
        Mike

  21. May i just add my good wishes to Colin for a successful op and a speedy recovery.
    A big thanks to all who post selections/opinions on here ,

  22. Hi all, my three for today,

    DONCASTER 15:15 WARRIORS TALE @ 9.0 BOG
    UTTOXETER 15:25 MOLLY CAREW @ 6.0 BOG
    CHELTENHAM 15:35 MIDNIGHT SHADOW @ 9.0 BOG

    All 1 Pt Win

    G.L. Solent

  23. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT+4.61

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT +7.58

    1pt win 2.15 U – Cesar RT Rosalie 8/1
    2pt win 3.25 U – Skewiff 8/1

  24. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 4.10 – John Constable on 6th run @ 40
    D 12.55 – Quest For Life on 3rd run @ 12
    U 1.05 – Wazowski on 1st run @ 9
    F 2.10 – Poseidon on 3rd run @ 12
    AW
    C 8.15 – Highwayman on 7th run @ 10
    Festival
    C 12.50 – Sizng Platinum on 5th run @ 28
    C 4.10 – Nelsons Touch on 1st run @ 10
    Aw
    L 3.40 – Sea Fox on 4th run @ 33
    3m+
    U 2.15 – Billy Bronco on 3rd run @ 9
    GL

  25. Just a few that came out top of the systems I use, so see what they do…don’t advise anyone to follow them just for information…
    1540. Ling. Chevallier.
    13.35 Fairyhouse…Kingston Girl
    13.30. Doncaster Ballyword
    14.05 Doncaster Commodore Bay
    14.40 Doncasrer Lady Buttons
    13.50. Chelt. Ballyhill/Brelan D’as
    14.50 Uttox. Burrows Park/Supremely Lucky
    15.15. Donc. 00 Seven/Dingo Dollar
    15.25. Uttox. Molly Carew/Jet Set/ Lostnfound
    16.10 Chelt. Equus Amadeus
    15.00. Chelt. Jarveys Plate
    12.40. Chelt Nelson River/Comber Mill
    15.35. Chelt Aux Ptits Soins/Uknowhatimeanharry/Wholestone
    13.05 Uttox. The Crazed Moon/Delface/Hollywood All Stars.

    Well there are enough selections to see how they fare, just need some of Tim’s excellence to sprinkle over them…well done to you Tim…here’s hoping we all can do as well…good luck with whatever you back today.

    1. Thanks Tim….should have stuck with Francis (well done) instead of my systems…thought I was going to have a good day when The Crazed Moon and Delface were 1st and 2nd in 13.05 but with the exception of Lady Buttons winning in 14.40 it was disappointing with a couple of unseats and a faller so work to do on the systems approach…onwards and hopefully upwards!!

      1. They’re best there Tim. All new posts go straight to bottom so at least people will know they can just scroll down to bottom rather than find in and amongst everything. I’d keep posting as a new comment if you can 🙂 best of luck.

  26. My Dad had his hip done 2 years ago and it gave him a whole new lease of life! Good luck Colin, you’ll be fine!

    Cheers
    Doug

  27. Uttox.
    1:05 Blue Bullet 12/1 (14’s about)
    Back over hurdles and 4lb lower than when 2nd last time. Blinkers on and ground should suit.

    2:15 Seaston Spirit 12/1
    Faired well in last two chases and has his ground today.

    3:25 Lostnfound 12/1
    2nd last time when reverting to hurdles after a wind op and back chasing today. Course winner (hurdles).

    Chris R.

  28. Afternoon’s……

    Fair’ 1.35 Tintangle………….. 8.0
    Don’ 2.05 Bailarico…………… 5.5
    Don’ 2.40 Indifatigable……… 7.4
    Chel’ 3.00 Buster Valentine… 11.0
    Don’ 4.25 Toodlepip…………. 12.0

  29. Anyone else be glad to get January behind us ? Been a pig of a month and good job i really ‘get it’ with Site – and have shielded myself as much as possible from too heavy a loss. Reality is a great teacher and now 7 weeks into it and loss making rather than profits. Not complaining though – onwards and upwards 🙂

    1. It has been a struggle across the board unless you were one of the lucky ones to be on board the ‘Tim express’. Unfortunately I wasn’t.

      The good news is that we can all vouch for the honesty and transparency of the results achieved on the forum from many contributors last year and so it really is just a matter of time before times will turn. Just stick to the strategy and your bank management and you will be rewarded.

      What is refreshing is to see not a single whinge whilst the going has been tough. We all deserve any future success we get I reckon!

  30. The racing has been a right off recently
    England cricketers showing how not to play the game
    The Toon lose again
    Things can only get better … as the song goes
    I was thinking of going to Sedgers tomorrow…its only 5 miles away for me…but just looked at the forecast wet and very windy…oh well!

  31. Anyone else be glad to get January behind us ? Been a pig of a month and good job i really ‘get it’ with Site – and have shielded myself as much as possible from too heavy a loss. Reality is a great teacher and now 7 weeks into it and loss making rather than profits. Not complaining though – onwards and upwards 🙂

    1. It has been a shocking month for the majority of us on here. It may be that some of these yards have had flu jabs whilst it`s quiet etc… Mr Tizzard and Mr Nicholls have both had a shocking month. Mr T has had 4 wins from last 44 runs and Mr N is 3 from 24, which when you look at it, Frodon was aimed at today’s race and Cyrname was also aimed at the big one last week, he too is having a shocking January. Hendo is a bit better off, so maybe he has not “flu jabbed” at the moment…. Seem to remember us all bemoaning one stable or another doing this sort of thing last January / February, can`t remember who brought it up?

    2. It has been a struggle across the board unless you were one of the lucky ones to be on board the ‘Tim express’. Unfortunately I wasn’t.

      The good news is that we can all vouch for the honesty and transparency of the results achieved on the forum from many contributors last year and so it really is just a matter of time before times will turn. Just stick to the strategy and your bank management and you will be rewarded.

      What is refreshing is to see not a single whinge whilst the going has been tough. We all deserve any future success we get I reckon!

  32. The racing has been a right off recently
    England cricketers showing how not to play the game
    The Toon lose again
    Things can only get better … as the song goes
    I was thinking of going to Sedgers tomorrow…its only 5 miles away for me…but just looked at the forecast wet and very windy…oh well!

  33. 2019 full result update , those of a nervous disposition look away now.

    staked 50 pts, returns 28.5 pts, loss of 21.5 pts

  34. COLINS BETS
    2.30Lingfield Aquerooo BOG 11/4
    6.45 Chelmsford Its All A Joke 7/2

    ELITE BETS
    No bet today

    Not much today taxi booked 9.50 so put them up early save messing later
    Colin

    1. Best wishes from me too Colin. Don’t forget to check as to whether the surgeon has taken his boots and spurs off before the op’! 😉

    2. Saturday in Sheffield. Isn’t that the day John Crawshaw goes to the hospital to practise making loin chops?

    3. All the best Colin, my dad is having his hip done soon so any good news would be appreciated. Hope it goes well
      Harry

      1. All will be well Colin as long as you get out on the crutches as quickly as poss. No gain without pain and a new man in a few weeks. If it’s the left hip get/borrow an auto car, you’ll be back driving short journeys in a couple of weeks or so.
        Mike

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