Members Daily Post: 25/01/19 (complete)

Through the card / Tips x3 + writeups, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Doncaster

1.55 – Champagne At Tara   (HcCh) I3 12/1 S2 S5 UP

4.05 –

Dreamsoftheatre   (micro class) 16/1 S2A

His Dream   (m class)  w1 H3 G3 3/1 

 

Huntingdon

3.15 – Minella Warrior   (HcH, m’s -class/HcHdeb) 30  w2 H3 I3 6/1 2nd 

3.45 –

Schnabel   (all Hc’s, m class)  w2 28/1 UP

Wind Place and Sho   (m TJC) H3 12/1 S2 UP

Ey Up Rocky   (all Hc’s,HcH, m class)  ES+ I3 6/1 S3A PU

World Premier   (m class) 12/1 S2 UP

San Pedro de Senam   (HcH, m age) I3 11/1 S2 S5 UP

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -5.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/5,2p, +3)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/146,66p, +8.8, 1 point win)

2.30 Donc – Lady Cylla – 10/1 (gen) PU, assume something went amiss there sadly, hopefully all ok. Shouldn’t have been far away from stablemate.

3.15 Hunt – Minella Warrior – 13/2 (bet365/BV) 6/1 (gen) 2nd, agonising but winner did do it shade cosily in the end sadly, exciting run though. Unexposed one from Ireland, improving for step up in trip/better ground/CP. Bred to stay and his form was ‘hot’ also – could be more to come in a stronger run race at a Festival…no sure if good enough for Cheltenham, we shall see, but Punch/Galway etc all options. Those front two decent enough there. His form 2 starts back, and a few other runs, suggested he could be better than this mark. 

3.45 Hunt – Ey Up Rocky – 6/1 (gen) PU…oh, well something amiss there with him also, stopped very quickly early on. Onto tomorrow. 

that’s all for today, 08.31, write ups incoming…

 

Lady Cylla – given Dicky has been booked (TJC 11/35,19p last 2 years) and rides for the first time, I thought she could be interesting here at 10s. I tipped her stable mate to win when they met LTO – the money poured on that one, but didn’t on this… this one probably would have won but for a bad bad error at the final flight before they turned for home, losing 5+ lengths just as the race was starting to hot up. She got back into it, and looked to be travelling all over the front two approaching the last, but there was no room and she had to be pulled back. She stayed on well at the line and should be getting better with experience. She’s jumps bred and I suspect may be best at 2m4f+ but she could have a stronger pace/front runner to aim at here, she has the champ on, and could be the most thorough stayer in this line up. I’d fancy her to be ahead of her stablemate this time, but whether that’s good enough we shall see. These races are hard to weight up. I’m not sure what Fabianski has been beating and this is the fastest ground she’ll have raced on over hurdles I think, and she can be keen on the front end, not that it’s stopped her yet. If I was Lacey i’d get his other one to take her on, and try and set it up for the stayer! Giving Glances could be a danger also, but comes here after a PU where i’m not sure the ground was a valid excuse, as the break would suggest. But she’s from a powerful yard who do well with this type. Maybe it’s silly taking on the top two but there was just something about how this one went LTO which makes me want to have a go here at 10s.

Minella Warrior – unexposed / well handicapped – Hot form / class drop / horse knows how to win / races prominent, or has / handicap debut – step up in trip / decent trainer stats to support. This one ticks a fair few of the boxes that i’m trying to home in on as per previous musings over recent days, and I wanted to have a go at 6s here. I’m having to take fitness on trust here, his first run after a wind op, but he’s gone a very close 2nd after 105 days, won after 407 and 134 days off – it’s fair to say he’s  the sort that can be readied at home. He makes handicap hurdle debut here at a track Bailey targets with such types – 3/7,4p in the last 5 years, and he’s 7/22,8p with all handicap hurdlers at the track in that time, 3/10 with D Bass on. I think he could go on to be the best of these, and could be a mid 140s horse. IF they have ambitions of running in the Pertemps final at Chelts, he needs to win this… 135 just got you in two years back, 138 last year. Assuming then that he’s here to run his race and that fitness won’t be an issue, the question is whether he’s well handicapped – in March 2017, 4 runs ago, he finished 2L behind Kalashnikov in a Wetherby bumper that’s worked out well enough. While he has to prove he’s a grade 1 horse, he is a solid low 150s animal now. 3 starts back he easily beat a horse over hurdles who’s now rated 127, two starts back he put another Skelton horse in it’s place by beating him 9l – he was rated 128 going into that. He was highly tried LTO and i’m not sure he liked the softer ground there and in any case, he was outpaced. He’d got away with the trip in his two novice wins, but not there. This one is closely related to Menorah and trips of 3m+ should be his thing. He runs as if that’s the case and this move up to 25f here could unlock plenty more potential. He looks a proper galloping sort. If he runs his race/improves, I think he’ll beat this lot. The market may guide as to that, but in any case, given all of the above, he’s surely got handicaps in him off this mark, and is clearly one to watch when they go chasing with him. Court Liability is unexposed and in form, but he didn’t beat much when last seen in my view and this is deeper. He ‘could’ bounce but will need to step forward again, which he may do. Connections like him and he may win well again, and will do so if mine doesn’t do what I expect. Potters Hedger is probably the right price- he didn’t beat much LTO either and this is a much deeper race. He couldn’t have done it any easier, but will need to step up again now. Court Liability and the selection are the two most interesting in this by far, with an eye to the future. I can dream of mine demolishing this lot. 🙂

Ey Up Rocky – unexposed / has won / well handicapped – hot form / in form – running well / doing something different – up in trip / should be more to come one day… and I hope that’s today. Jonjo does well here with his handicappers and with the hurdlers – 10/44,16p, 8/34,13p C4. This one won a bumper when trained by M Hammond, that’s turned out ever so well. The 2nd is now rated 135 and won his next two after that run. The 3rd has won a few and is now 123. On this horses next start he was going close at the track in a 20f novice when falling – he was bang there 3 out – and that race has worked out well – the 3rd from that race is now rated 142. LTO at Donny he was 1/2 length behind an unexposed Skelton horse who was 120 going into that, and will clearly be higher now. Like Bailey’s above, he is going to make his mark look silly one day. He races off 117 here, and I found it interesting that young Junior is here, rather than the LTO winner that runs at Donny, a section 1 qualifier also. This horse travelled powerfully LTO, maybe too well, and he maybe hit the front too soon. In any case, the winner had a sharper turn of foot, but he kept galloping in a way which suggests he could improve for this step back up in trip to 20f. It would be rare for bumper winners not to get at least 20f and he seemed to be staying it well enough on his second career start over CD – maybe interesting they come back here also. I think this bigger field will help him and JJ will be able to bury him. There isn’t much pace on paper mind, so we shall see, but I’ll trust the decent young jockey to have him in the right place. Hopefully he settles well enough and runs his race. He is better than a 117 horse, it’s just a case of when he shows it. The dangers… well Daydream Aulmes won a weaker race than this LTO and is up in the weights again. He will have to step forward and i’d like to think there may be something better handicapped in this. He is the solid one and will run his race. That may be good enough. Ardera Cross – he made the market and the bookies often put these Skelton horses in far too short now. He did win a handicap easily in Ireland off 101 to make me think, what with the trainer change/wind op etc, he could be better than 113 at some point. But he looked short enough given the questions. Black Buble is in form, but has to step up in a stronger race again for me as does Discay. Turango is unexposed, but has yet to win in his career, and Dicky has gone to Donny. I can leave him, but he is more interesting than plenty. I may not have mentioned the winner of course and if that’s the case, I hope Nick has! 🙂

Best of luck.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Richard Hobson (33/1< guide)

2.30 Donc – Filipine 100/1 UP

Tom Lacey

2.30 Donc – Lady Cylla 10/1 PU

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

LTO winning trainers

1.00 H – Havana Hermano (12/1< guide) 16/1 3rd

Trainers to follow

2.30 Donc – Lady Cylla 10/1 PU / Via Delle Volte 15/2 2nd

Jockeys/Chasers

2.05 H – Itsamanslife (25/1<) 11/1 WON 12/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Saturday Big Race Stats/Pointers HERE>>>

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Doncaster ‘through the card’ 

A mixture of my own thoughts, and having had a look at what you wise folk have posted below…

that was a rare, blank, awful attempt…

12.50 – Stage Summit

1.25 – hmmm… time for a pint!

1.55 – Beau Bay

2.30 – Lady Cylla

3.05 – The Grand Visir / Magellan (looks an open race)

3.35 – Bolister / Miss Amelia

4.05 – Kilbrew Boy

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

110 Responses

  1. While things are slow I thought I’d post a race to discuss where anyone can add their thoughts and hopefully the more experienced of us enjoy each others ways of going about things. Of course posts will be a great help to the less experienced bettors like Josh in reading a race from different angles. (smiley) I picked a sprint as thats what I do mainly, I think they open themselves to better form reading as the pace is more predictable ( well at least most classes ) I will start the thread and give my initial views and negate certain horses, others can reintroduce them if they have a valid reason and maybe we can get a few winners with the fun.

    So onto the 2.55 Ling. Firstly like I always do is judge the pace and the outside drawn 3 are all prominent runners ( fly here is at this grade its easy for them to look for another day) and that will make some of the prominent inside runners go a bit faster early. So it looks like a very good pace here. Secondly I look for unexposed types and here it looks like there’s 3. Delegate the lady, Dotty grand and Wotamadam. rather than guess I leave them to the market, either they will drift to a silly price on betfair or they’ll be solid.

    First to go is the 3 on the outside simply because its not worth taking a chance on any of them not ending up 4/5 deep on the first bend. Once a horse has been beaten 5 times in a class I put a line though it on the AW, they do win in class 5/ 6 but I cant have them so out goes Red snapper and Charlie alpha. Brockley rise has been running over 7 fur which means if any chance it will be running on late and if Mrs begley does it then I lose. The early betting shows what a nonsense the market has become overnight with nearly every horse shortening due to books just using trackers on each other.

    Once again please post your opinion and reintroduce any horse I’ve negated. left in at mo.
    Prominna
    Wotamadam
    Ever rock
    Dotty grand
    delegate the Lady

    1. I like these races because, as Geegeez pace tab clearly shows, the advantage lies with the early leader on the rails.

      In this case Dolydaydream in stall 1 is odds on to bag that spot having led in 3 of her last 6.

      I now need to investigate trainer and sire stats to see if she can produce the necessary improvement, big improvement, to win.

    2. Jamie Osborne is in form. Dotty Grand has had a blow on the all weather and may get more of the hang of it now. The horse likes to be up with the pace and so at 14/1 in a donkey derby we can throw a dart his way.

    3. I believe sometimes you can over analyse a race, this will do that, that will do this… to me, it is if everything has fallen right on the day, the complexion of the race on the day etc. By this I mean the way I look at it is, if everything is right on the day of the race I believe X will happen and therefore my selection / selections will run well in the race! If you start thinking well if this front runs and mine gets a tow into the race, or, mine front runs and is slow away then it is all irrelevant.. Some jockeys know how to “steer” a horse, some don`t in my opinion, therefore, it is all taken to chance how the race will pan out. Me personally I look for what my given selection/ selections will be doing on what he / she has done before and will it translate into todays race!

  2. Sort of hoping the racing goes ahead tomorrow since it looks like a nice card at Huntingdon (although the one at Donny is shocking)

    Potters Sapphire Huntingdon 13:35 1pt e/w 18/1
    Oscar World Huntingdon 14:05 1pt e/w 11/1
    World Premier 15:45 1pt e/w 12/1

    1. I do agree with the shocking cards at Doncaster… I do believe we have too much racing and should follow Irelands lead with racing on certain days and take a break on the others! It never does them any harm and they regularily have top class competative racing on a Thursday/ Monday whilst we have the glue factory novice hurdle at Wetherby, with 4 runners in…Doesn`t make sense to me?
      I never really used to look at the Irish cards, but, even with the big 2 stables over there sort of stealing the market the odds get pushed out on certain horses and the each ways are a good source of income as they have reserves in a lot of races, something I have never quite worked out why we don`t do it over here…?? #bookiesrule

  3. Tips – 1.00 Huntingdon, Kingofthecotswolds at 20/1 for 1 point each way. On its penultimate run was beaten by Nobby, who went on to win again. Back in distance now and Jack Savage (is he a pirate?) takes off 7LB for Twister. Must be worth a go at this price.

    System selections – Karl Burke on the all weather (Newcastle):

    6.15 So Hi Storm 9/1;
    6.45 Baron Run 11/1;
    7.45 Dancing Ballerina 13/2.

    All 1 point win.

    Good luck.

  4. While things are slow I thought I’d post a race to discuss where anyone can add their thoughts and hopefully the more experienced of us enjoy each others ways of going about things. Of course posts will be a great help to the less experienced bettors like Josh in reading a race from different angles. (smiley) I picked a sprint as thats what I do mainly, I think they open themselves to better form reading as the pace is more predictable ( well at least most classes ) I will start the thread and give my initial views and negate certain horses, others can reintroduce them if they have a valid reason and maybe we can get a few winners with the fun.

    So onto the 2.55 Ling. Firstly like I always do is judge the pace and the outside drawn 3 are all prominent runners ( fly here is at this grade its easy for them to look for another day) and that will make some of the prominent inside runners go a bit faster early. So it looks like a very good pace here. Secondly I look for unexposed types and here it looks like there’s 3. Delegate the lady, Dotty grand and Wotamadam. rather than guess I leave them to the market, either they will drift to a silly price on betfair or they’ll be solid.

    First to go is the 3 on the outside simply because its not worth taking a chance on any of them not ending up 4/5 deep on the first bend. Once a horse has been beaten 5 times in a class I put a line though it on the AW, they do win in class 5/ 6 but I cant have them so out goes Red snapper and Charlie alpha. Brockley rise has been running over 7 fur which means if any chance it will be running on late and if Mrs begley does it then I lose. The early betting shows what a nonsense the market has become overnight with nearly every horse shortening due to books just using trackers on each other.

    Once again please post your opinion and reintroduce any horse I’ve negated. left in at mo.
    Prominna
    Wotamadam
    Ever rock
    Dotty grand
    delegate the Lady

    1. I like these races because, as Geegeez pace tab clearly shows, the advantage lies with the early leader on the rails.

      In this case Dolydaydream in stall 1 is odds on to bag that spot having led in 3 of her last 6.

      I now need to investigate trainer and sire stats to see if she can produce the necessary improvement, big improvement, to win.

      1. Chris, I think she’s one paced and will struggle to lead here but we’ll put her back in the fray and leave it to others to comment.

        1. Could you not find a worse race than this to analyse Chubnut? A right bunch of rogues and monkeys here. Only 2 wins from the past total of 71 runs in the whole field.

          1. Tim, I dont want to complicate things by selecting a 3 mile competative chase where anything could happen. Sprints are a nice start for those with Geegeez, old farts or greenhorns alike and there’s nuggets to be found in those murky class 5/6 waters

        2. Dolydaydream has led early 3 times in class 6 races over 6f, just like this race.

          I don’t dispute she’s probably one-paced and so gets passed later in her races.

          All I’m saying is that for the purposes of the Geegeez pace tab, she is the most likely leader on the rails.

          She may well be joined early on her outside by the next horse to have shown plenty of early speed, Monarch Maid.

          But before I consider that possibility, I need to look at whether the first time visor and the quick 7-day return are likely to get improvement from Dolydaydream.

          1. Dolydaydream needs to improve by quite a few pounds. I doubt if a 7-day return will do this but the visor might.

            First time visor 1/24, the win was in 2012. So I will discount the visor and indeed discard the horse.

            But there’s an odd stat, second time visor 6/13, 9p, +36.5. It’s a small sample but I’ve never seen anything like it before, I think the horse needs a close look next time.

            Anyway, I will next consider whether another horse might lead early instead of Dolydaydream. The advantage conferred by early pace cannot be dismissed lightly. It has an Impact Value of 1.88 for all 6f handicaps here and is much higher for just those with 12 runners.

    2. Jamie Osborne is in form. Dotty Grand has had a blow on the all weather and may get more of the hang of it now. The horse likes to be up with the pace and so at 14/1 in a donkey derby we can throw a dart his way.

      1. I’ve seen Dotty Grand and she is not much bigger than an alsatian. She does try hard though but if the ones inside her who all have similar pace profiles go off ok I would think she may get stuck in behind. Had a good look and I would take out Dotty Grand from Chubnuts list.
        Lots of pace everywhere, may set it uo for a closer Like Delegate The Lady with Lasher Luke up, not that I’ll be getting involved.
        Hugh

    3. I believe sometimes you can over analyse a race, this will do that, that will do this… to me, it is if everything has fallen right on the day, the complexion of the race on the day etc. By this I mean the way I look at it is, if everything is right on the day of the race I believe X will happen and therefore my selection / selections will run well in the race! If you start thinking well if this front runs and mine gets a tow into the race, or, mine front runs and is slow away then it is all irrelevant.. Some jockeys know how to “steer” a horse, some don`t in my opinion, therefore, it is all taken to chance how the race will pan out. Me personally I look for what my given selection/ selections will be doing on what he / she has done before and will it translate into todays race!

      1. OK here’s why I like Monsrch Maid to get the early lead and use her pace advantage.

        The eight horses drawn between Dolydaydream and Monarch Maid have hardly ever led early in a race before. The one with the highest percentage if you like is Dotty Grand, once in 5 runs, that was in an auction race when 50/1, not compelling when you look at Monarch Maid.

        She has led early 10 of her last 12 starts including the last 2 runs from stalls 9 and 10. She was beaten a neck last time off the same mark as today. Last run was at Kempton, she has run there 11 times without winning so may not be suited by a right hand bend, has won left handed. This is her second quick return in a row, she won last February under similar circumstances.

        Obviously an unexposed type like Dotty Grand presents a threat but Monarch Maid will be my choice to make all.

        1. I came to a similar conclusion Chris but in the end decided that with so much pace inside her, even Adam Kirby might get stuck wide.
          Hugh

          1. No, Hugh, that’s what I’ve been trying to say, I don’t think there is much pace drawn inside her.

            Her mark is also due to go up for that neck beating last time. It’s kind of last chance saloon today.

            Of course, now she will miss the break.

          2. You may well be right, Kingscote will also be trying like mad to go forward as he loves to do. Good job he’s on the outside of MM!

        2. This is what I would call a Dartboard Race, They have all beaten each other at some period so IF you stupid enough to part with the hard earned you have to look at something that could improve lightly raced. If you ignore Wotamadam last run right handed do’s she have a chance of further progress, Brockley Rise draws the eye but not for me at 7/2, Why haven’t they tried Tarseekh at 5 furlongs, Prominna is a 5 Furlong horse, Swiss Cross 3rd run in 10 days and never won in January, Red Snapper when she has run better not good on the clock, Ever Rock and Delagate The Lady as Josh would say could be anything but Good or Bad ?? Dotty Grand will win at some stage the J Osborne factor, Dolydaydream will the visor make a difference? Monarch Maid with Kirby on for the first time E/W squeak at 9/1 Charlie Alpha not that bad on the clock but trainer for a worry. Wallets in my pocket I’m off to work good luck if you play

          1. Take your point Chubnut. It’s the kind of race I’d spend 30 seconds with and just move on, but if I had to get involved I’d be looking for something unexposed for sure. Having said that and bearing in mind that by this time of the season most of the newbies that have some kind of potential have at least started to show it by now. The fact that they’ve been entered in such a poor race suggests that their trainers are desperate to find a race they might have any kind of chance in.

            It’s one of those races where there are too many possibilities as to what may or may not happen for me.

          2. Well I think considering what a bad race it is its good to see so many replies which not only shows a depth of knowledge here but the willingness to help others. Tim is right about the 30 seconds look and geegeez gold saves a fortune in time. Personally the instant expert shows me immediately how competative a race is regardless of class. plenty of green and orange in both win and place sets contasts with another race a sea of red. The tools section can be set so that they come up on the main card for every horse and on the horses form far right is a button named today which tells you the record for every horse going, distance and class. Below the course button can be added to show those stats for the course.

            All in all it saves me at least an hour a race compared to a few years ago, giving me extra time for more study or relaxation. Maybe next time I’ll select a better contest or feel free to add one yourself.

  5. Sort of hoping the racing goes ahead tomorrow since it looks like a nice card at Huntingdon (although the one at Donny is shocking)

    Potters Sapphire Huntingdon 13:35 1pt e/w 18/1
    Oscar World Huntingdon 14:05 1pt e/w 11/1
    World Premier 15:45 1pt e/w 12/1

    1. I do agree with the shocking cards at Doncaster… I do believe we have too much racing and should follow Irelands lead with racing on certain days and take a break on the others! It never does them any harm and they regularily have top class competative racing on a Thursday/ Monday whilst we have the glue factory novice hurdle at Wetherby, with 4 runners in…Doesn`t make sense to me?
      I never really used to look at the Irish cards, but, even with the big 2 stables over there sort of stealing the market the odds get pushed out on certain horses and the each ways are a good source of income as they have reserves in a lot of races, something I have never quite worked out why we don`t do it over here…?? #bookiesrule

  6. Tips – 1.00 Huntingdon, Kingofthecotswolds at 20/1 for 1 point each way. On its penultimate run was beaten by Nobby, who went on to win again. Back in distance now and Jack Savage (is he a pirate?) takes off 7LB for Twister. Must be worth a go at this price.

    System selections – Karl Burke on the all weather (Newcastle):

    6.15 So Hi Storm 9/1;
    6.45 Baron Run 11/1;
    7.45 Dancing Ballerina 13/2.

    All 1 point win.

    Good luck.

  7. these tired eyes can’t find any one horse that stands out in any race, nothing at Donny and to many at Huntingdon.
    1-00. Havana Hermano, Kingofthecotswolds
    2-05.Baron Du Plessis,Lady Master, Is Love Alive
    2-40.Happy Diva ??? not convinced it’s a win bet
    3-15. Potters Hedger, Minella Warrior, Wicked Willy
    3-45. San Pedro De Senam, World Premier, Wind Place And Sho, Schnabel
    will look again in morning

    1. the more i look the more confused i get so i’m leaving them alone today, no selections.
      as iv’e backed Martin’s tip in the 1-00 and Nick’s 3 the only one of those iv’e put any money on is a £2 ew on Havana Hermano

  8. 4.05 Doncaster 1pt e/w Kilbrew Boy 15/2
    2.40 Huntingdon 1pt win Marienstar, 12/1 available. Taking a chance that Magic Of Light and Happy Diva will both not like only having 6 days off since their wins, HD had a really tough race chasing Cyrname. Also hoping that Bryony can get her first course win!
    Hugh

    1. It seems the same firms can treat punters differently. People have said they’ve been severely restricted by Bet365 yet I’ve won bundles off them and they still give me €15 bonuses and €25 free in running bets on football. On the other hand I’ve lost plenty with Victor Chandler and still got closed.

    2. Your not kidding Jim
      Below is what I posted a couple of weeks ago. It was last thing at night so hardly anyone saw it.

      Just wondered what everyone thought of Skybet.
      On Monday I drew £50 out of my account with them to go out for a few beers with some mates. It is so long since I deposited with them that I had to register a new card, deposit £5 and then withdrew £55.
      Yesterday I backed one of Colin’s bets; A Sure Welcome, with them at 5/1. As everyone knows, it won at 7’s but only got paid out at the 5’s (no BOG)
      I queried this and got this back:-#

      Hi Michael Webster,

      Thanks for your E-mail

      After a recent review by our trading team, it has been decided that this account requires tighter liability management. Unfortunately this means the account will no longer be eligible for any of our free bet promotions (including Sky Bet Club and Money Back refunds)

      In addition, any bets place swill no longer apply for Best Odds Guaranteed and will be settled at the price option taken upon placement.

      This decision has been made in full accordance with the Sky Bet’s Terms and Conditions.

      This decision is final and will not be overturned. However, your account will continue to be reviewed and this may be lifted in future.

      If you have any further queries please do not hesitate to contact us.

      Kind Regards,

      Nathan
      Customer Care Team

      Nice of them to let me know after they have ripped me off don’t you think? Its my own fault really, fancy having the temerity to withdraw £50 out. We are allowed to bet but not allowed to win are we?

      Mike 2 weeks ago Reply

  9. 3.15 Huntingdon : JERSEY BEAN
    Will love this return to this type of track and level the stable jockey is back on board after running a bit flat with dickie onboard. Acts on good to soft ground is still improving learning and looks solid e/w material to me ?

    gb

  10. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    D 3.35 – Miss Amelia on 7th run @ 9/2
    AW
    L 2.55 – Dotty Grand on 2nd run @ 25
    Festival AW
    N 5.15 – Tommy G on 7th run @ 11

  11. Hi all. my three for today,

    DONCASTER 15:05 MAGELLAN @ 9.0 BOG
    HUNTINGDON 15:15 POTTERS HEDGER @ 5.5 BOG
    DONCASTER 15:35 MISS AMELLA @ 4.5 BOG

    All 1Pt Win

    G.L. Solent

  12. First race of possible interest is the 1.25 for me, so I’ll post the afternoon at 1.00 with the evening update at 4.15

    1. This afternoon’s….
      Donc’ 2.30 Sparky Valentine.. 9.0
      Hunt’ 2.40 Nightfly …………… 14.0
      Donc’ 3.05 Magellan …………. 8.0

      1. Just one tonight at Newcastle. Excellent sire figures @ N/c over 5F and trainer is decent with deb’s there too. Is a filly though so extended odds.

        5.45 Metal Exchange …… 12.0

        1. Nice one – thank you 35/1 BFSP …only £2 on (sad I know) but most welcome, cheers Tim (and interesting write up too about your approach)

        2. Great result Tim, well done!! Such a big price I backed it each way. Once again, well done sir.
          Best wishes, Tom.

        3. Well you do know your unexposed onions! Superb tipping , and bred by a mr Nick Luck no less, I think his first winner as a breeder! Possibly his first runner too. I’d like to say I was on, by i totally forgot what with my head stuck in all things Saturday. I should start paying more attention, but you did tell us when you were posting. Superb effort, well done.

          1. The thing about this race is that the horses at the sharp end of the market weren’t up to much really with official ratings of 70, so the newcomers wouldn’t have to be world beaters to be thereabouts in the finish. I assessed it’s chances as about 8.0 + the 50% margin (12.0) as a guide. Couldn’t believe it when it drifted out.

            R/T 8W 31L +82.2 BFSP

  13. COLINS BETS
    3.55 Lingfield Pivotal Flame BOG 6/1
    7.15 Newcastle Spirit Power BOG 3/1

    ELITE BETS
    1.15 Lingfield Multitask BOG 9/1

    Tomorrow have to be at the Hospital for 10am, my son will put any bets on the forum, could be later than normal and after tomorrow who knows.
    Colin

    1. Best of luck Colin, we won’t be expecting posts and will see them as a bonus! But will probably be good to have something of interest to delve into post op.

    2. just lie back and think of good old blighty … what could possibly go wrong !?
      look forward to a quick and positive re-hab for you Sir Colin.
      p.s. make sure the black marker pen crosses are on the correct areas .. can’t trust anyone these days ( i went in for a hernia op once and came out with a gastric band fitted instead……….. jeebers !! 🙂 )

      gb 🙂

    3. Colin, I had a hip replacement a few years back after I broke one of mine. You’ll be unable to move much for a couple of days but will soon be on your feet again, the physioterrorists will see to that.

  14. All the best with it Colin. As Martin says – dont eat their food take your own. Our prison inmates have food standards way above Hospitals 🙁 Well done last 2 days, nice 2 W from 4 and a profit for me.

  15. Are we on the old or new course at Cheltenham this weekend?

    The new course is more of a stamina test. How is the ground looking, good to soft ish?

    I believe Frodon is looking to go three miles? Doubt the horse would stay?

    1. Yep New Course, the stiffer of the two/more of a gallopers/staying track for sure, but fair – can win from front or back, again as always depending on pace.

  16. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT+5.61

    1pt win 1.55 D – Beau Bay

    Not overly sure about him to be honest, the presence of ozzie the oscar and the possibility of a disputed lead is not ideal.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT +7.58

    No bets today.

  17. 4.05 Doncaster 1pt e/w Kilbrew Boy 15/2
    2.40 Huntingdon 1pt win Marienstar, 12/1 available. Taking a chance that Magic Of Light and Happy Diva will both not like only having 6 days off since their wins, HD had a really tough race chasing Cyrname. Also hoping that Bryony can get her first course win!
    Hugh

        1. You could say that about the majority of the main bookies. I can get more on with Skybet than a lot of the rest

          1. My stakes arent huge but im about 4k in profit over the last 12 months. Paddy Power, Betfair and Coral all restricted me after winning a fraction of that.

          2. This is why I ended up ditching bookies in the end. I used to spend more time on placing my bets than formulating them. A lot of new bookies have sprung up since I quit, but in those times I ended up having to place a dozen bets on just to have a £30 bet. Many times I found the odds were dropping faster than I could get my full bet on and ended up having to take 13/2 about the last bet, when the first bet was at 10/1. Totally impractical if you are trying to make a living wage from it even if you already have a house that’s paid for.

            Going B/f and BFSP was another game changer for me, but you have to be open to changing your way of thinking about your betting to make it fit. I don’t make the same kind of bets now as I did back then.

          3. Interested to hear how you work on BF. I found I just couldn’t make anything but a loss there unless I restricted to very disciplined back and lay.

          4. There’s no golden rules that you can apply. Most of it was trial and error to start so I did both along side each other for a while. This turned out to be a good thing cos after maybe 6 months results I quickly realised that most all the B/f profits were coming from races that there were no early markets available for.

            So I specialised in those races only to start but realised as I got more experienced that you could get involved in early priced races providing you stayed away from exposed horses. Checking my results over a 12 month period revealed an alarming amount of good value losers when I separated out the exposed from the unexposed runners, so I ended up just focusing on novice races generally along with unexposed horses in handicaps.

            I’m not saying there aren’t other ways that profit, is just what worked for me. Other things that I had to do was to work out my minimum price and stick to it. That extended profits further cos if you have 2 fancies in the same race the tendency is always to favour the shorter priced horse when really you need to look at the chances of the rest of the field beating either of them, set the minimum odds accordingly and go for the horse that meets the odds requirement. This also had the effect of seriously reducing the 2 bets in the same race problem. Don’t forget having 2 horses in the same race sometimes looks good, but it effectively halves the odds as one of them has to lose. It’s a bit like being in competition with yourself.

            It took me a couple of years to get it into shape but my third year produced about 480 points profit on horses with no problem getting on. A hell of an improvement on anything I’d ever done with bookies. Since then I’ve managed to improve things even more, (last year +628) purely because I’m getting better at it, but there’s no manual of right or wrong. You just have to put the work in and focus on what you find works for you and your style of analysis.

          5. How much of that 628 is from tips like the ones you put on here? Any idea of a rough projection of points you’d expect/like from your tips in 2019? Appreciate its not the easiest question to answer but been following your tips so far with interest

          6. I bet all the horses I put up as long as the odds are there and some more that I can’t put up purely because there is more than the one possibility in the same race. This 2nd version I’m putting up is simplified because I’m only putting up the races where I have only the one horse that either makes the odds or not. Was too complicated trying to pre-empt the market with more than one possibility. This is why there are a lot less bets now.

          7. It’s hard to make projections as it’s mainly down to the number of bets I get and that is beyond my control, but so far I have managed to improve my points return every year.

    1. It seems the same firms can treat punters differently. People have said they’ve been severely restricted by Bet365 yet I’ve won bundles off them and they still give me €15 bonuses and €25 free in running bets on football. On the other hand I’ve lost plenty with Victor Chandler and still got closed.

      1. I share Chubnut’s ungubbed experience of B365. Very fair and brilliant software. William Hill have also tolerated me, but sans BOG. The rest all gone.

      2. To be fair 365 and PP took £100/£200 bets off me for approx 4 years then accounts closed the rest used them at same time as PP and 365 but they were quick to close my accounts and Skybet were the worst,and 10 Bet do not know if they still trade in UK took 3 plus weeks to send me the £1500 they owed me after closing my account they were based in Bulgaria.
        Colin

    2. Your not kidding Jim
      Below is what I posted a couple of weeks ago. It was last thing at night so hardly anyone saw it.

      Just wondered what everyone thought of Skybet.
      On Monday I drew £50 out of my account with them to go out for a few beers with some mates. It is so long since I deposited with them that I had to register a new card, deposit £5 and then withdrew £55.
      Yesterday I backed one of Colin’s bets; A Sure Welcome, with them at 5/1. As everyone knows, it won at 7’s but only got paid out at the 5’s (no BOG)
      I queried this and got this back:-#

      Hi Michael Webster,

      Thanks for your E-mail

      After a recent review by our trading team, it has been decided that this account requires tighter liability management. Unfortunately this means the account will no longer be eligible for any of our free bet promotions (including Sky Bet Club and Money Back refunds)

      In addition, any bets place swill no longer apply for Best Odds Guaranteed and will be settled at the price option taken upon placement.

      This decision has been made in full accordance with the Sky Bet’s Terms and Conditions.

      This decision is final and will not be overturned. However, your account will continue to be reviewed and this may be lifted in future.

      If you have any further queries please do not hesitate to contact us.

      Kind Regards,

      Nathan
      Customer Care Team

      Nice of them to let me know after they have ripped me off don’t you think? Its my own fault really, fancy having the temerity to withdraw £50 out. We are allowed to bet but not allowed to win are we?

      Mike 2 weeks ago Reply

      1. i don’t think there is any rhyme or reason to it, i have 4 accounts left that are still unrestricted, skybet (still get my £5 a week free bet) B365 ( get a freebie about once a month ), William Hill and BetVictor, been closed or highly restricted by Coral, Paddy power, Betbright, Ladbrokes, 188, betfred,boylesports , Stanjames and Betway. i found the worst to be PP and Betbright.
        i have had a telephone/online account with WH for over 30 years and never had a problem even when i was placing large bets back in the day probably 10x higher than i stake now, B365 have left me alone even though i have won more on that account (about£8k) over the last 2 years than any other. as i i said there does not seem to be any logic to it you must just hit their radar for some reason or another and your buggered.

        1. I think it also has something to do with your style of betting. They dont tolerate what they perceive as arbers for some reason and those that consistently get the best night before price. They like multiple bets and Casino bets!

          1. Hi All, I think they look at your style of betting, I do SP2a bets, Nicks, and a couple of Josh’s but I also do approximately 4 Lucky 15’s per week, a couple of weeks ago I was at work my wife rang to tell me she had placed the SP2a bets but there were 6 tracker horses I asked her to pick 4 of them and put them in a 50p E/W lucky 15, 3 winners and a loser £1052 better off when I got home, I have won over £2000 on one before once with Sky and the latest with Bet365, I have been getting a £5 free bet with Bet365 and Sky every week this year. On top of this I do Handicap betting on Ice Hockey approx 40-50 bets per week with Bet365,Ladbrokes, Marathon and Unibet. The only closed account I have Is Paddy Power and I had 20 bets with them and lost. there is no logic to the Bookmakers/Accountants as Colin calls them.

  18. 3.15 Huntingdon : JERSEY BEAN
    Will love this return to this type of track and level the stable jockey is back on board after running a bit flat with dickie onboard. Acts on good to soft ground is still improving learning and looks solid e/w material to me ?

    gb

  19. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    D 3.35 – Miss Amelia on 7th run @ 9/2
    AW
    L 2.55 – Dotty Grand on 2nd run @ 25
    Festival AW
    N 5.15 – Tommy G on 7th run @ 11

  20. Hi all. my three for today,

    DONCASTER 15:05 MAGELLAN @ 9.0 BOG
    HUNTINGDON 15:15 POTTERS HEDGER @ 5.5 BOG
    DONCASTER 15:35 MISS AMELLA @ 4.5 BOG

    All 1Pt Win

    G.L. Solent

      1. Just one tonight at Newcastle. Excellent sire figures @ N/c over 5F and trainer is decent with deb’s there too. Is a filly though so extended odds.

        5.45 Metal Exchange …… 12.0

        1. Great result Tim, well done!! Such a big price I backed it each way. Once again, well done sir.
          Best wishes, Tom.

        2. Well you do know your unexposed onions! Superb tipping , and bred by a mr Nick Luck no less, I think his first winner as a breeder! Possibly his first runner too. I’d like to say I was on, by i totally forgot what with my head stuck in all things Saturday. I should start paying more attention, but you did tell us when you were posting. Superb effort, well done.

          1. The thing about this race is that the horses at the sharp end of the market weren’t up to much really with official ratings of 70, so the newcomers wouldn’t have to be world beaters to be thereabouts in the finish. I assessed it’s chances as about 8.0 + the 50% margin (12.0) as a guide. Couldn’t believe it when it drifted out.

            R/T 8W 31L +82.2 BFSP

  21. COLINS BETS
    3.55 Lingfield Pivotal Flame BOG 6/1
    7.15 Newcastle Spirit Power BOG 3/1

    ELITE BETS
    1.15 Lingfield Multitask BOG 9/1

    Tomorrow have to be at the Hospital for 10am, my son will put any bets on the forum, could be later than normal and after tomorrow who knows.
    Colin

    1. Best of luck Colin, we won’t be expecting posts and will see them as a bonus! But will probably be good to have something of interest to delve into post op.

        1. Private Hospital through the NHS and food is excellent own room with TV one thing about the hospitals in Sheffield they are all fantastic for i am under three and the staff in everyone that i have come across are excellent.
          Spoke to Tinda ward nurse at the Claremont Hospital this morning and after a little probing shes a dancer goes to one of the haunts i go to,not working this weekend but will see me Tuesday before my discharge, always find it difficult to understand when people slate the NHS or are we just fortune in Sheffield with such high standards,who knows.
          Colin

    2. just lie back and think of good old blighty … what could possibly go wrong !?
      look forward to a quick and positive re-hab for you Sir Colin.
      p.s. make sure the black marker pen crosses are on the correct areas .. can’t trust anyone these days ( i went in for a hernia op once and came out with a gastric band fitted instead……….. jeebers !! 🙂 )

      gb 🙂

    3. Colin, I had a hip replacement a few years back after I broke one of mine. You’ll be unable to move much for a couple of days but will soon be on your feet again, the physioterrorists will see to that.

    4. Good luck Colin. Here’s to a speedy recovery which might be helped if your boy Fitzpatrick wins in Dubai!

      Cheers

      Ben

      1. Ben
        The Claremont Hospital is only about 200 yards from the Hallamshire Golf Club where Matt started his career,have you heard anything about his brother Alex for have not seen anyone since before Christmas who normally keeps me in touch how he his doing, will have to be good to better matt but that is what they keep saying about Alex.
        Colin

    5. Best of British Colin. Hope they’ve got a telly above your bed and that you’ve come round by the off at Cheltenham.
      Hugh

  22. All the best with it Colin. As Martin says – dont eat their food take your own. Our prison inmates have food standards way above Hospitals 🙁 Well done last 2 days, nice 2 W from 4 and a profit for me.

  23. Are we on the old or new course at Cheltenham this weekend?

    The new course is more of a stamina test. How is the ground looking, good to soft ish?

    I believe Frodon is looking to go three miles? Doubt the horse would stay?

    1. Yep New Course, the stiffer of the two/more of a gallopers/staying track for sure, but fair – can win from front or back, again as always depending on pace.

  24. Fantastic Tim although like a numpty I forgot to check your afternoon post again, that’s 2 big winners ive missed what a prat I’m going to start setting my alarm so it doesn’t happen again

  25. Fantastic Tim although like a numpty I forgot to check your afternoon post again, that’s 2 big winners ive missed what a prat I’m going to start setting my alarm so it doesn’t happen again

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