Members Daily Post: 24/01/19 (complete)

TIPS x2, UK jumps racing abandoned, Sat big race pointers…

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Fakenham

Wetherby

both abandoned, frost

 

Bonus Irish

G 12.45 – Scorpion Knight   (HcH) (reserve #2)  40/1 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -5.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/5,2p, +3)

 

Big Race Tips

3.00 Gowran 

Dounikos – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365) 12/1 (betfS/PP) 11/1 (others) UP

Mr Diablo – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/betfS/BV/BetFred) 11/1 (others) UP

Hmm, they were both poor, moving on. Winner no shock if he saw it out, and he appeared to relish it. No real run for my money from my two which is annoying. I was nowhere near the second so i’ll ponder him further. 

 

(my shortlist: Dounikos / Mr Diablo / General Principle / Invitation Only)

Dounikos – it’s never a bad thing having an Elliot/Gigginstown runner onside in these races and he looks one of the most interesting in here. He’s still lightly raced over fences but has some decent form to his name… he was very close to today’s fav when they met in the Grade 1 Flogos in Feb 18, running a credible 4th, beaten under 2L. Invitation Only was just in front of him there, with Monalee and Al Boum Photo 1st and 2nd. That’s decent form and indicates this one has a touch of class, which I always like to see in these handicaps. The wheels appeared to come off after that and I assume he had some problems, however he looks like he’s working his way back to a big effort. That run LTO in the Paddy Power was decent – up there for a long way, jumping well, he faded as if still needing it, and he could have also been feeling the ground a tad. His price/jockey booking suggested he wasn’t there to win and I hope this has been the plan. The owners won this for the first time last year, having been 0/23 before that in the race and I suspect this is now on their list of target handicaps. He should enjoy this ground more. He does have to prove he fully stays this trip but the hope is that he improves for it, and hence why you want a decent price. He’s unexposed in these conditions in handicaps, and he should give me a good spin. I’d have thought Jack would have picked him, which is a niggle, but best not over think it too much with these connections.  Elliot and Flanagan are 3/6 when teaming up so a positive there, and he’s a very good jockey. He should race ‘up in the van’ and i’m excited to see what he can do here, a course he’s won at before.

Mr Diablo… if he had Mullins/Elliot next to his name I think he’d be 8s or shorter. His run two starts ago in the Troytown is the best recent piece of handicap chase form in this race by quite some way to my eyes. He was beaten by Tout est Permis who’s since come out and won a G2, and looks like a G1 chaser in the making. The rest were well stuffed but the 3rd there has since come out and won twice at a decent level on UK soil. It’s solid form. If he repeats that run, he won’t be out of the places here and I think he’d win. He’s lightly raced for his age, knows how to win, there could still be room in this mark and connections know the time of day in big handicaps like this. The yard appear in ok form and this prominent racer should give me a good run for my money. He ran over a trip too short LTO and does need breaks between races it would seem, and I can only think this has been the plan. In any case he was overpriced here.

Those two look the most interesting in this race by quite some way to my eyes. I have had a nibble on General Principle... as it looks like Jack has picked him. Maybe I just have affection for him after winning the Irish National for us and I do wonder if this could happen too quickly still…however it’s soft and it’s not impossible some of these go too hard up front, and he should be staying on. He was behind Dounikos LTO. I thought my two may have too much toe for him, and I think they have more upside potential. Hopefully I haven’t picked the wrong Elliot horse

I was happy to leave the rest and I could list all the reasons why but I can’t be bothered! 🙂 I have left all those making their seasonal return and if one is fit enough to win this first time up then fair play to connections. As yet this race hasn’t been won by a horse returning 76+ days off, in 21 renewals, albeit only 23 have tried, two placing. The fav is worth taking on at his price – the price disparity between him and Dounikos is odd given the form discussed above, and i’m not convinced he will stay. Well, he has to prove his stamina, and that makes 9/2 short enough in a race like this for me. He was going well 2 starts back over this trip, so it’s likely he may get it, but I wanted to take him on. I’d have it between those 4.

Anyway, those two will do, with a saver on GP for me.

Best of luck.

 

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/143,65p, +11.8, 1 point win)

None.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NEW! Saturday Big Race Stats/Pointers(+ Gowran today) HERE>>>

 

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From yesterday…

Which jockeys are doing the business/improving?

You can read in an online PDF (save it etc) HERE>>> 

(also in yesterday’s post)

 

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Reflections on my daily tipping, specifically the ‘best of’ 

Where to begin… I think i’ve been lacking focus and a long term strategy for daily tipping, maybe summed up by my efforts on Tuesday, going with x3 horses with a combined age of 30+ ! Moron. Older exposed horses are NOT the place to focus for long term success in this game. I know that, but it still didn’t stop me. The Leicester chase was won by a horse having his second chase start, up in trip, jockey change (main man for yard back on, and also when his dad had a runner in same race, significant), shown some ok placed efforts over hurdles, yard in red hot form. I’ll return to plenty of those pointers…they are common traits to look for! I got him wrong.

Focusing on my ‘best of the stats quals’, which was an attempt to focus my daily tipping mind outside of big races. (they are a topic for another day, but at least Saturday’s big race double lifted the mood on that front) … they are on +11.8 points as I type. On the 10th December they were on +10. So, I haven’t really moved very far since then. From 12th Dec to 20th Dec i had a run, getting up to +35. On the 29th Dec they hit their high, +40.8. Since then i’ve had 29 losers in a row. Glorious. Clearly when that happens some reflection and home truths are required, especially for an approach that I hoped would have a higher win SR and shorter losing runs. Albeit even with a 20% win SR you will hit losing runs of 31 on average, every now and then. That’s the maths.But still, awful. 

So, i’ve spent some of the afternoon going through 25 of the 29 winners. I missed 4 of them but couldn’t be bothered trawling back through again. 

I wanted to see if there were any common traits, to help refocus my mind, and to maybe develop a strategy towards the type of horse/profile etc that I should be focusing on. 

Odds

5/2 – 11/2 when tipped = 19/25 winners

6/1-10/1 = 6 winners.

All winners were 10/1 or shorter when posted. There could be some significance there especially over jumps at a time when field sizes haven’t been the biggest and finding those 12/1+ lurkers,  outside of the big races, has seemingly been tough. Now clearly this isn’t an exact science as i’ve only focused on the winners, just to try and find some common patterns. The majority of those have been sent off much shorter, with the odd drifter winning. 

The Profile

23/25 could be classed as UNEXPOSED!!! (i’ll go to bed thinking about that word!) in said code, (chase/hurdles) and more generally. They were generally lightly raced, open to progress. 

Winning Form

21/25 had a previous win under rules to their name, whether UK/Ireland or in France. There’s clearly a lot to be said for a horse that’s proven they can win, especially near the head of the market. With ‘non winners’ I think it’s a case of wanting bigger odds generally, but maybe within the ranges above. 

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Other common traits/profile pointers… in no particular order (and each of these areas could be discussed in great depth…) 

-Trainer was ‘in form’ (usually denoted by the geegez 14 or 30, but in general that trainer’s horses had been going well, recent winners etc) 

-A strong stats element, usually related to trainer (track/that race type- at track etc) / trainer-jockey / trainer’s MO / outside of my ‘way in’,which of course was them being a stats qualifier in section 1 or 3, which meant there was some stats foundation anyway. 

-horse had previous course form – a few ticked that box, not essential, but a big positive 

HOT FORM!! I think one of the most obvious areas to focus on. This is linked to asking whether the horse is well handicapped/likely to be ahead of their mark. Have the races they’ve been running in produced subsequent runners/winners, what are they now rated, has the horse been running in novice/maiden races surrounded by horses rated much higher, indicating they were just outclassed- making even a 20L defeat in a hot Novice race not look too bad…if horse is rated 90 today, but 2L in front of it there was a now 125 rated animal. For example. Hot Form. Hot Form. Hot Form. 

-Are they well handicapped/have they conclusively proven they cannot win from this mark/are they still lightly raced. I can’t keep asking that question enough really, and I need to ask it more, lined to the hot form points above. Obvious I know. 

-Chasers – 13 of the winners I think were in chases… and most of those either led/made all/or raced prominently. 

-Why should the horse improve today, in the context of all of the above, what are they doing differently? I’ve covered some of those themes before but, those common ‘doing something different’ traits from those 25 winners…

  • CLASS DROP (that happened a few times) and/or quality of race- can be same class but up against much lower rated rivals. Or a higher class novice chase into a weak handicap. 
  • Jockey Switch (sometimes on for first time) Again, may be some trainer/jockey stats, or they ride the course well, a more experienced rider taking over etc. 
  • Distance Move- usually up in trip, but occasionally down. 
  • Different track (tight vs galloping, speed vs stamina, RH/LH…now to a track the trainers targets?) 
  • Different Going 
  • Headgear switch/1st time (rarely a positive in sense connections feel like they need it, but with those types not sure you want a short price) 

 

-Are there valid excuses for recent runs/LTO? Linked to why they may improve today of course… and in context that if focusing on unexposed horses in theory they should just get better with racing/time/experience/growing-strengthening up… but… were they unfit / running wrong ground/ wrong trip / outclassed – being forced to go quicker than their cruising speed, using up too much energy too soon, and thus fading… can be linked to wrong trip of course, if a stayer running over shorter than ideal. Every horse has a comfortable cruising speed, idea being they get to business end without changing out of that gear, before maximum effort. The ability of the jockey to time all of that is what separates the riders ability, I think. Has this race been the plan? (linked to trainer track record/and or their record in the race) 

-Video Analysis – i’m getting better at watching replays and the more racing you watch, the more you see. I don’t tip anything now without at least watching their last race. I need to do more of it. A focus on how they travelled/head carriage/at what point they faded (if indeed they didn’t win LTO) / how they jumped / any excuses. Were they keen/strong travelling – thus could do with a bigger field/stronger pace (higher class race/more pace generally), or a shorter trip. Was the race run to suit etc. 

-Assessment of the oppo – are they weak, how many unexposed ones are in the race (the more there are, the more competitive/unknowns/dangers- fewer the better), how many look in form, are not proven in conditions etc

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I think that covers everything i’ve got on my notepad, as I spent a few hours pondering this afternoon. 

All the ingredients are there, and they are all in my head- I could do with writing them into a simple doc I can just refer to, and having a sort of checklist. 

Clearly you can suffer from information overload- and not every horse is going to tick every box above, but many of those aspects I need to focus on… I suppose… UNEXPOSED / HOT FORM- WELL HANDICAPPED / CLASS DROP / TRAINER FORM … would be the main takeaways maybe. 

I’m a HRB user and Geegeez Gold user, which pulls together most of the above and allows me to delve into such things at the click of a button. I’ve still no idea how people use the Racing Post cards etc to crack this game! They are better punters than I. 

I’ll try and get my head screwed on and up my game. My drive in this game has always been solving the puzzle, it’s what I enjoy most, and I hate being wrong so often! This game tames lions at times, which is why it’s so bloody engaging. 

I’ll try and create a shorter ‘checklist’ and put the above into a doc, for those of you who may find some of the content above useful. 

As always, your thoughts and constructive (polite) criticism is always welcome. 

Josh  

p.s I do need to do a piece on ‘losing runs’ at some point also. They’re inevitable, and most punters fail because they are unprepared for them in my view.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

76 Responses

  1. Systems selections:

    Karl Burke at Southwell!!

    1.15 Golden Guide 25/1
    1.45 Mayfair Rock 13/2
    4.05 Mametz Wood 11/1

    1. All 1 point win above.

      Also Tim Vaughan in the North:

      1.45 Wet, Briac 6/2 x 2 points.
      2.10 Wet, Midnight Queen 7/2 x 2 points.

    2. Hi martin a system that has done well for me is Karl Burke .
      Flat all weather. Not at . Ascot bath Chester goodwood kempton Leicester Newbury Redcar ripon thirsk wetherby York Chelmsford . No of runners between 6 and 16. Class 5/6. Not any non-handicap seller handicap claimer handicap maiden handicap nursery. Month jan Feb March April may June July August October November . Horse age 2-4 . Position in the stalls not between 7-19. Class move same. Sorry it’s long winded but it’s whats in my hrb . Already had a couple of big winners with it . I think you can trim it down more by race distance but I only use this as a guide.

      1. Thanks jamie i have now cut bets down to 45 and win % of 33.33 % mainly due to number of runners and class move 🙂
        thanks again for sharing and caring 🙂
        i think it’s what this site is all about 🙂
        gl/gb

      2. Yes, that is what I call a multi variable micro system. The Karl Burke at Southwell all weather has exploded over the past six months and we are now at 100 points. We have to milk it until it drys up.
        I will take a look at your micro and feedback when I get the chance. Thanks for sharing.

        1. I had a quick look at what you posted and looked at the past two years.

          I still like Karl Burke at Southwell all weather full stop.

          However the best I could get was: At Southwell, Catterick and Yarmouth, age 2 to 6, 6 to 14 runners, +31 win and each way both.

  2. Hi Josh
    Don’t really like asking as I’m sure it must get tiresome with repeated requests but I’m off to Donny on Friday and wondered if you could do a through the card or highlight any you think might be interesting. Absolutely no worries if you have a lot on – I will be taking my trusty pin

    1. Hi Mike , please never never apologise haha… certainly for weekdays! It never gets tiresome its then just up to me to say yes or no depending on the diary etc. a through the card for Donny shouldn’t be a problem at all. Keep an eye out in section 4. Likely to be updated after 10am. 🙂

  3. Out of my slumber for a big Hcp chase at Gowran Park, where i believe it is a bit like our Ascot, in that it favours front runners/ up with the pace horses.
    So onto it….
    UP FOR REVIEW 14/1 gen 1pt win
    The most prominent front runner in here, he could really burn these off and I don`t think he is in here to make the numbers up, if him and Some Neck make the running I think it could become a private tussle, making the finish interesting!
    SOME NECK 10/1 gen 1pt win.
    Again another that has also made the running / up with the pace in the past, his owner, The Ricci family do like these staying chases and it seems odd that in this one they only go with one, is that because they think this is the best option?? Or, is it best of a bad bunch, cause the others aren`t fit, either way, if he is up with the running turning in it will be very exciting! With Mr Deegan taking off 5lbs also, I believe this horse to be the forgotten one and may drift tomorrow, he is really handily weighted on old form, still progressing and won LTO..
    ALPHA DES OBEAUX 20/1 1pt win gen
    Now, this may seem obvious, he too has made the running, he has won this season and over the course also, albeit in a hurde race 2 years ago. He is head and shoulders above this company, but, only on his day and we shall see if the 7lb claimer can be worth of that honour when the chips are down… He will run his race and i was tempted to go each way, but, it is a new me and a new year, so, here goes, my 3 against the field!!

    As always, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you pick tomorrow!

    1. Well done Stewart, yours went a fair bit better than mine! Unlucky with the second, brave effort, decent picking that.

  4. Cheers for the Saturday pointers Josh. I was already having a look at the SkyBet at Donny and thought Favorito Bucks was big enough especially given the weight he’s carrying. Ticks most of the boxes in your stats as well so I’ve had a bit EW at 16’s. Couldn’t resist SingleFarmPayment either but that’s because I’m a mug and think he’ll eventually win one of these.

    1. no problem Stephen, best of luck with those, yet to dive in. I did say to someone, forget who, post his Chet effort, that this could be a good race for Singlefarm – could be some pace on that he can track – he battled to an extent LTO albeit I still have niggles when he has to get down and dirty, but he could have been outstayed late on also, probably a solid EW bet!

    2. I would hold off backing Favorito Bucks ante-post since Nicholls has said he won’t run if Art Maresque does unless you can get NRNB.

  5. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT+5.61

    1pt win 1.35 W – Achill Road Boy
    1pt win 3.10 F – Sideways
    1pt win 3.20 W – Manwell

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT +7.58

    1pt win 1.25 F – Stonebrigg Legend
    1pt win 2.10 W – Aquarian

    Will settle to 10am odds as usual.

  6. Systems selections:

    Karl Burke at Southwell!!

    1.15 Golden Guide 25/1
    1.45 Mayfair Rock 13/2
    4.05 Mametz Wood 11/1

    1. All 1 point win above.

      Also Tim Vaughan in the North:

      1.45 Wet, Briac 6/2 x 2 points.
      2.10 Wet, Midnight Queen 7/2 x 2 points.

    2. Hi martin a system that has done well for me is Karl Burke .
      Flat all weather. Not at . Ascot bath Chester goodwood kempton Leicester Newbury Redcar ripon thirsk wetherby York Chelmsford . No of runners between 6 and 16. Class 5/6. Not any non-handicap seller handicap claimer handicap maiden handicap nursery. Month jan Feb March April may June July August October November . Horse age 2-4 . Position in the stalls not between 7-19. Class move same. Sorry it’s long winded but it’s whats in my hrb . Already had a couple of big winners with it . I think you can trim it down more by race distance but I only use this as a guide.

      1. Yes, that is what I call a multi variable micro system. The Karl Burke at Southwell all weather has exploded over the past six months and we are now at 100 points. We have to milk it until it drys up.
        I will take a look at your micro and feedback when I get the chance. Thanks for sharing.

        1. I had a quick look at what you posted and looked at the past two years.

          I still like Karl Burke at Southwell all weather full stop.

          However the best I could get was: At Southwell, Catterick and Yarmouth, age 2 to 6, 6 to 14 runners, +31 win and each way both.

          1. I think this my karl burke adapted from your original findings Martin .. thanks for everyone sharing 🙂
            87 bets 20 wins 22.99 % SP p/l 169.33 BFSP p/l = 379.27 A/E = 1.45 CHI = 3.27
            Lingfield Newcastle Southwell
            Surface : Beach Polytrack Fibresand Tapeta
            Race Class : Class 1 Class 5 Class 6
            Handicap/Non : Non Handicap
            test dates : 2016 2017 2018 2019
            Date (Month) : January February March April May August November December
            Trainer : Burke, K R

            gl/gb

      2. Thanks jamie i have now cut bets down to 45 and win % of 33.33 % mainly due to number of runners and class move 🙂
        thanks again for sharing and caring 🙂
        i think it’s what this site is all about 🙂
        gl/gb

  7. Hi Josh
    Don’t really like asking as I’m sure it must get tiresome with repeated requests but I’m off to Donny on Friday and wondered if you could do a through the card or highlight any you think might be interesting. Absolutely no worries if you have a lot on – I will be taking my trusty pin

    1. Hi Mike , please never never apologise haha… certainly for weekdays! It never gets tiresome its then just up to me to say yes or no depending on the diary etc. a through the card for Donny shouldn’t be a problem at all. Keep an eye out in section 4. Likely to be updated after 10am. 🙂

  8. today’s selections ( if on)
    Fakenham 2.35. Gin And Tonic 6-1
    Wetherby 1-05. Avondhu Pearl 22-1 b365 4 places
    Wetherby 1-35. Hattons Hill 10-1
    all 1/2 pt ew
    full result update asap

  9. Out of my slumber for a big Hcp chase at Gowran Park, where i believe it is a bit like our Ascot, in that it favours front runners/ up with the pace horses.
    So onto it….
    UP FOR REVIEW 14/1 gen 1pt win
    The most prominent front runner in here, he could really burn these off and I don`t think he is in here to make the numbers up, if him and Some Neck make the running I think it could become a private tussle, making the finish interesting!
    SOME NECK 10/1 gen 1pt win.
    Again another that has also made the running / up with the pace in the past, his owner, The Ricci family do like these staying chases and it seems odd that in this one they only go with one, is that because they think this is the best option?? Or, is it best of a bad bunch, cause the others aren`t fit, either way, if he is up with the running turning in it will be very exciting! With Mr Deegan taking off 5lbs also, I believe this horse to be the forgotten one and may drift tomorrow, he is really handily weighted on old form, still progressing and won LTO..
    ALPHA DES OBEAUX 20/1 1pt win gen
    Now, this may seem obvious, he too has made the running, he has won this season and over the course also, albeit in a hurde race 2 years ago. He is head and shoulders above this company, but, only on his day and we shall see if the 7lb claimer can be worth of that honour when the chips are down… He will run his race and i was tempted to go each way, but, it is a new me and a new year, so, here goes, my 3 against the field!!

    As always, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you pick tomorrow!

  10. Cheers for the Saturday pointers Josh. I was already having a look at the SkyBet at Donny and thought Favorito Bucks was big enough especially given the weight he’s carrying. Ticks most of the boxes in your stats as well so I’ve had a bit EW at 16’s. Couldn’t resist SingleFarmPayment either but that’s because I’m a mug and think he’ll eventually win one of these.

    1. no problem Stephen, best of luck with those, yet to dive in. I did say to someone, forget who, post his Chet effort, that this could be a good race for Singlefarm – could be some pace on that he can track – he battled to an extent LTO albeit I still have niggles when he has to get down and dirty, but he could have been outstayed late on also, probably a solid EW bet!

    2. I would hold off backing Favorito Bucks ante-post since Nicholls has said he won’t run if Art Maresque does unless you can get NRNB.

  11. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT+5.61

    1pt win 1.35 W – Achill Road Boy
    1pt win 3.10 F – Sideways
    1pt win 3.20 W – Manwell

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT +7.58

    1pt win 1.25 F – Stonebrigg Legend
    1pt win 2.10 W – Aquarian

    Will settle to 10am odds as usual.

  12. today’s selections ( if on)
    Fakenham 2.35. Gin And Tonic 6-1
    Wetherby 1-05. Avondhu Pearl 22-1 b365 4 places
    Wetherby 1-35. Hattons Hill 10-1
    all 1/2 pt ew
    full result update asap

  13. just a quick look at Gowran Park but some nice price hopefuls out today.
    1-50. Dortmund Park 28-1, Mala Beach 40-1
    2-25 . Peace n Milan 18-1, The Jam Man 28-1

  14. COLINS BETS

    7.25 Chellmsford Navajo Star BOG 4/1

    ELITE BETS
    Chelmsford
    5.25 Kadrizzi BOG 11/2
    5.55 Human Nature BOG 7/1
    Winner and 2nd yesterday much needed and the negative sadly proved right on Singing The Blues for still not won on the AW,even Luke Morris could not make the difference.
    Colin

  15. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    AW
    S 1.15 – Choca de Silva on 2nd run @ 5
    Festival
    G 3.00 – Polidam on 1st run @ 33
    M 4.15 – Aquarium on 2nd run @ 10
    AW
    C 5.55 – Desert Doctor on 4th run @ 9/2
    3m+
    G 3.00 – Pleasant Company on 3rd and 4th run @ 22
    GL

  16. Another day without jumps. Only good thing for me is I don’t start looking at them in any detail until I know they are going ahead, but I feel for those that do all the work only to find them abandoned. Very frustrating!

    So today the first race with any possibilities is the 1.45 so I’ll post the afternoon bulletin at 1.00 with the update at 4.00

  17. Stan wrote:- Evening Tim. Did you watch the 1.30 race by any chance? I picked out Hic Bibi out as a bet last night on the basis it was a front runner and it had a good draw so thought it would get out fast and try make all but after just reading the results it says it was held up. I’m just wondering if they were trying something different or it was slowly away. Cheers

    Stan…. Only just picked up your post from last night. I watched the race with similar expectations to those which you expressed however…. a quick exit from the stalls is always an exercise in uncertainty when you have an apprentice on. Having said that to be fair to her she recovered the situation well and was making good progress up the inside, but checked her horse around 2 out to allow Adam Kirby through on the eventual second. Another rookie mistake. She was running the rail, he had no right to take her ground, she should have ridden on and to hell with the consequences, but because she allowed him do do it, there were no penalties for Kirby.

    I could have sworn I heard him say…. ‘Thank you little girlie’, as he forced his way through. Once the momentum was lost it was game over, but given the speed the eventual winner finished the race at I don’t think Hic Bibi would have won. Maybe 2nd at best.

    This is why I put the price guide on them. All my bets come with uncertainty as standard. Unless I’m getting a decent price I wouldn’t touch them, not even with Josh’s money.

  18. In light of UK jumps action having a look a Gowran for notable trainer jockey combinations at the track, bit late in the day but i’ll post selections here as I go through the races.

    12.45
    City Hall 8/1 (1-1-2 last 3 runners when they’ve combined over hurdles at the track on Hcp Debut) 8/1
    The Caddy 16/1 (Trainer/Jockey 1 for 1 at the track, some notable form coming not far behind one that performed well in a grade 2, also on handicap debut but trainer form with debutants not great)

  19. 220 Southwell Jumira Bridge. Drops in class, trainer in form, first time at Southwell, but invincible spirits(his sire) are 9/40, 13 places +18 at this track at 5f, so hope the horse can cope with surface, 10/1. Good luck

    1. 5/11 (45%) of those wins were in non-handicap events. For handicaps only, over 5 furlongs the figures are 7 from 58 (12.07%). At least that is what they are on Proform.

  20. This afternoon’s….

    Sou’ 1.45 Mayfair Rock…… 10.0 MC has already given you the trainer low down on this one, but the sire figures are excellent too @ Southwell. Only doubt for me is DSLR, but I’m hoping the price will cover it.

    Sou’ 2.20 Moonraker………. 8.0

      1. Sorry to say that despite hanging on I’m unable to put up anything with any confidence at a decent price, so done for the day. Back tomorrow, hopefully with some jumps to go at.

  21. COLINS BETS

    7.25 Chellmsford Navajo Star BOG 4/1

    ELITE BETS
    Chelmsford
    5.25 Kadrizzi BOG 11/2
    5.55 Human Nature BOG 7/1
    Winner and 2nd yesterday much needed and the negative sadly proved right on Singing The Blues for still not won on the AW,even Luke Morris could not make the difference.
    Colin

  22. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    AW
    S 1.15 – Choca de Silva on 2nd run @ 5
    Festival
    G 3.00 – Polidam on 1st run @ 33
    M 4.15 – Aquarium on 2nd run @ 10
    AW
    C 5.55 – Desert Doctor on 4th run @ 9/2
    3m+
    G 3.00 – Pleasant Company on 3rd and 4th run @ 22
    GL

  23. Another day without jumps. Only good thing for me is I don’t start looking at them in any detail until I know they are going ahead, but I feel for those that do all the work only to find them abandoned. Very frustrating!

    So today the first race with any possibilities is the 1.45 so I’ll post the afternoon bulletin at 1.00 with the update at 4.00

  24. Stan wrote:- Evening Tim. Did you watch the 1.30 race by any chance? I picked out Hic Bibi out as a bet last night on the basis it was a front runner and it had a good draw so thought it would get out fast and try make all but after just reading the results it says it was held up. I’m just wondering if they were trying something different or it was slowly away. Cheers

    Stan…. Only just picked up your post from last night. I watched the race with similar expectations to those which you expressed however…. a quick exit from the stalls is always an exercise in uncertainty when you have an apprentice on. Having said that to be fair to her she recovered the situation well and was making good progress up the inside, but checked her horse around 2 out to allow Adam Kirby through on the eventual second. Another rookie mistake. She was running the rail, he had no right to take her ground, she should have ridden on and to hell with the consequences, but because she allowed him do do it, there were no penalties for Kirby.

    I could have sworn I heard him say…. ‘Thank you little girlie’, as he forced his way through. Once the momentum was lost it was game over, but given the speed the eventual winner finished the race at I don’t think Hic Bibi would have won. Maybe 2nd at best.

    This is why I put the price guide on them. All my bets come with uncertainty as standard. Unless I’m getting a decent price I wouldn’t touch them, not even with Josh’s money.

  25. In light of UK jumps action having a look a Gowran for notable trainer jockey combinations at the track, bit late in the day but i’ll post selections here as I go through the races.

    12.45
    City Hall 8/1 (1-1-2 last 3 runners when they’ve combined over hurdles at the track on Hcp Debut) 8/1
    The Caddy 16/1 (Trainer/Jockey 1 for 1 at the track, some notable form coming not far behind one that performed well in a grade 2, also on handicap debut but trainer form with debutants not great)

  26. 220 Southwell Jumira Bridge. Drops in class, trainer in form, first time at Southwell, but invincible spirits(his sire) are 9/40, 13 places +18 at this track at 5f, so hope the horse can cope with surface, 10/1. Good luck

    1. 5/11 (45%) of those wins were in non-handicap events. For handicaps only, over 5 furlongs the figures are 7 from 58 (12.07%). At least that is what they are on Proform.

  27. Jamie Osbourne does a video recording when he has a runner on lambourntrainers.com/todays-lambournrunners/ he has a wonderful dry sense of humour which is right up my street, and todays is very educational well worth listening to and make your own decision if to back his horse or not because in his own blunt words he admits that he has made an error, he still strongly fancies it though.
    Would love to have a pint or two with him would be spellbound with his tales on racing, and he wasn’t half decent jockey in his day.
    Colin.

  28. This afternoon’s….

    Sou’ 1.45 Mayfair Rock…… 10.0 MC has already given you the trainer low down on this one, but the sire figures are excellent too @ Southwell. Only doubt for me is DSLR, but I’m hoping the price will cover it.

    Sou’ 2.20 Moonraker………. 8.0

      1. Sorry to say that despite hanging on I’m unable to put up anything with any confidence at a decent price, so done for the day. Back tomorrow, hopefully with some jumps to go at.

  29. Jamie Osbourne does a video recording when he has a runner on lambourntrainers.com/todays-lambournrunners/ he has a wonderful dry sense of humour which is right up my street, and todays is very educational well worth listening to and make your own decision if to back his horse or not because in his own blunt words he admits that he has made an error, he still strongly fancies it though.
    Would love to have a pint or two with him would be spellbound with his tales on racing, and he wasn’t half decent jockey in his day.
    Colin.

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