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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

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  • AW
    L 1.30 – Sonnet Rose @ 16
    K 6.45 – Kamra @ 10/3
    K 8.15 – Magic Mirror @ 4

    info/test
    L 2.40 – Caspat the Cub @ 11/4
    K 6.15 – Toffee Galore @ 2
    K 7.15 – Petras Pony @ 20
    K 7.45 – Sargento @ 25
    GL

    Titus 12/08/19 9:38 AM Reply


  • They used to be a lot of Brennan supporters on here. Hope they have ditched him as he has completely gone at the game. Gets well back in the saddle, cannot sit still, looks like he is a poor judge of pace(his ride yesterday on Troika Steps was as bad as it gets. You wouldn’t expect that judgement from a 7lb claimer) , he is not trusted by a lot of owners and his stable F.O’Brien is suffering. Brennan one winner in last 40 rides and O’Brien one winner since turn of year. Avoid these two like the plague. Busted flushes both of them.

    Jinxy 11/08/19 2:03 PM Reply


    • The numbers don’t back up that view at all really, albeit clearly he isn’t getting any younger…
      This week in members’ post i shared an image from someone on twitter looking at those jockeys who do best in terms of the % of rides which run to, or exceed, their timeform rating. He is still in the top 20 for 18/19, at 50% or so. But, yep would appear he has regressed… 15/16, 16/17 he was in the top 10, 60% each year… this year he is 4.5% below his historical average – so what you say may have some weight.
      He’s still capable… the fact he rides most of Obrien’s clearly means his yard form is important – he hasn’t been firing for a few weeks now, as if they may have been ill, or not getting ground etc- that isn’t Paddy’s fault in my view.
      Not long ago he was riding a cracker on God’s Own to victory at Exeter, those owners haven’t lost faith in him. The tune he gets out of Vice Et Vertu = which no-one else seems to do, is another example.

      Troika Steppes – that’s an incorrect analysis in my view… that horse was out of sorts with 1st time blinkers on – the hope is that it would spark him up – he stays further also, and it made perfect sense for him to be aggressive- he was never too far in front of the rest, and I don’t think he went too hard – given his profile the tactics made perfect sense…sadly his older legs were not quick enough, or in form enough, to sustain that pace- which he has sustained before when in form. It was the only way he was going to win, and didn’t cost him even a place in my view.

      I don’t think he’s a busted flush, but of course would agree there are many better than him coming through now etc. He’s done well in his career because of his aggressive style, mainly on chasers.

      We shall see what happens when Fergal’s string return to form.
      Josh

      Josh 12/08/19 1:35 AM Reply


  • I’ve bought Kempton Favourites at 76

    Tony

    Tony 12/08/19 9:38 AM Reply


  • Golf Tips:

    Farmers Insurance Open – I am with Tony Finau, 1.5 points each way at 25/1. He has course form and needs to prove that he can be a world top 10 player in 2019.

    Dubai Desert Claasic – I am still stewing it over and will be back later once I have taken the dogs out and made a decision.

    martin colwell 12/08/19 9:38 AM Reply


    • Martin is that your norm stake or have you raised it by 1/2point ???

      Aaron 12/08/19 12:29 PM Reply


  • AW
    L 1.30 – Sonnet Rose @ 16
    K 6.45 – Kamra @ 10/3
    K 8.15 – Magic Mirror @ 4

    info/test
    L 2.40 – Caspat the Cub @ 11/4
    K 6.15 – Toffee Galore @ 2
    K 7.15 – Petras Pony @ 20
    K 7.45 – Sargento @ 25
    GL

    Titus 23/01/19 9:58 AM Reply


  • They used to be a lot of Brennan supporters on here. Hope they have ditched him as he has completely gone at the game. Gets well back in the saddle, cannot sit still, looks like he is a poor judge of pace(his ride yesterday on Troika Steps was as bad as it gets. You wouldn’t expect that judgement from a 7lb claimer) , he is not trusted by a lot of owners and his stable F.O’Brien is suffering. Brennan one winner in last 40 rides and O’Brien one winner since turn of year. Avoid these two like the plague. Busted flushes both of them.

    Jinxy 23/01/19 10:43 AM Reply


    • The numbers don’t back up that view at all really, albeit clearly he isn’t getting any younger…
      This week in members’ post i shared an image from someone on twitter looking at those jockeys who do best in terms of the % of rides which run to, or exceed, their timeform rating. He is still in the top 20 for 18/19, at 50% or so. But, yep would appear he has regressed… 15/16, 16/17 he was in the top 10, 60% each year… this year he is 4.5% below his historical average – so what you say may have some weight.
      He’s still capable… the fact he rides most of Obrien’s clearly means his yard form is important – he hasn’t been firing for a few weeks now, as if they may have been ill, or not getting ground etc- that isn’t Paddy’s fault in my view.
      Not long ago he was riding a cracker on God’s Own to victory at Exeter, those owners haven’t lost faith in him. The tune he gets out of Vice Et Vertu = which no-one else seems to do, is another example.

      Troika Steppes – that’s an incorrect analysis in my view… that horse was out of sorts with 1st time blinkers on – the hope is that it would spark him up – he stays further also, and it made perfect sense for him to be aggressive- he was never too far in front of the rest, and I don’t think he went too hard – given his profile the tactics made perfect sense…sadly his older legs were not quick enough, or in form enough, to sustain that pace- which he has sustained before when in form. It was the only way he was going to win, and didn’t cost him even a place in my view.

      I don’t think he’s a busted flush, but of course would agree there are many better than him coming through now etc. He’s done well in his career because of his aggressive style, mainly on chasers.

      We shall see what happens when Fergal’s string return to form.
      Josh

      Josh 23/01/19 10:58 AM Reply


  • I’ve bought Kempton Favourites at 76

    Tony

    Tony 23/01/19 11:07 AM Reply


  • Golf Tips:

    Farmers Insurance Open – I am with Tony Finau, 1.5 points each way at 25/1. He has course form and needs to prove that he can be a world top 10 player in 2019.

    Dubai Desert Claasic – I am still stewing it over and will be back later once I have taken the dogs out and made a decision.

    martin colwell 23/01/19 11:32 AM Reply


    • Correction to the Finau price. It is 25/1 on the exchanges but max 22/1 with bookies and so I will record at 22/1.

      Dubai Desert Classic – I am going with Jordan Smith at 40/1, 1 point each way. An up and coming player who played OK last week. This one looks very open to me.

      martin colwell 23/01/19 1:42 PM Reply


    • Martin is that your norm stake or have you raised it by 1/2point ???

      Aaron 23/01/19 3:22 PM Reply


      • I am usually 1 point each way but I have raised it this week as I like Finau for this. He has some decent course form and is a top talent. My one fear is wayward driving as one of the two Torrey Pines courses does not have particularly wide fairways.

        martin colwell 23/01/19 3:31 PM Reply


  • Torrey
    Gary Woodland 32/1 ew
    Keegan Bradley 45/1 ew
    Patrick Rodgers 200/1 ew
    Peter Uihlien 150/1 ew (.5 point)

    Rodgers my best value bet, similar prep as when he came 4th here, think he has a cracking chance of a place at massive odds

    James P 11/08/19 2:03 PM Reply


  • Torrey
    Gary Woodland 32/1 ew
    Keegan Bradley 45/1 ew
    Patrick Rodgers 200/1 ew
    Peter Uihlien 150/1 ew (.5 point)

    Rodgers my best value bet, similar prep as when he came 4th here, think he has a cracking chance of a place at massive odds

    James P 23/01/19 9:27 PM Reply


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