Members Daily Post: 23/01/19 (complete)

ALL JUMPS ABANDONED, Tipping reflections

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Catterick

Abandoned, Frost 

Hereford

Abandoned, Frost 

No stats profile this season. 

*

KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -5.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/3,2p, +5)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/143,65p, +11.8, 1 point win)

2.50 Here – Cesar Collonges – 2/1 (gen) 

3.20 Here- Arthurs’s Gift – 6/1 (Lad/BetfS/PP/Coral) 11/2 (others) 

Abandoned, Frost … damn, and I was going to have a double!! 🙂

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

All jumps abandoned 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW! something to muse over… from yesterday’s post

Which jockeys are doing the business/improving?

You can read in an online PDF (save it etc) HERE>>> 

(also in yesterday’s post)

 

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Reflections on my daily tipping, specifically the ‘best of’ 

Where to begin… I think i’ve been lacking focus and a long term strategy for daily tipping, maybe summed up by my efforts on Tuesday, going with x3 horses with a combined age of 30+ ! Moron. Older exposed horses are NOT the place to focus for long term success in this game. I know that, but it still didn’t stop me. The Leicester chase was won by a horse having his second chase start, up in trip, jockey change (main man for yard back on, and also when his dad had a runner in same race, significant), shown some ok placed efforts over hurdles, yard in red hot form. I’ll return to plenty of those pointers…they are common traits to look for! I got him wrong.

Focusing on my ‘best of the stats quals’, which was an attempt to focus my daily tipping mind outside of big races. (they are a topic for another day, but at least Saturday’s big race double lifted the mood on that front) … they are on +11.8 points as I type. On the 10th December they were on +10. So, I haven’t really moved very far since then. From 12th Dec to 20th Dec i had a run, getting up to +35. On the 29th Dec they hit their high, +40.8. Since then i’ve had 29 losers in a row. Glorious. Clearly when that happens some reflection and home truths are required, especially for an approach that I hoped would have a higher win SR and shorter losing runs. Albeit even with a 20% win SR you will hit losing runs of 31 on average, every now and then. That’s the maths.But still, awful. 

So, i’ve spent some of the afternoon going through 25 of the 29 winners. I missed 4 of them but couldn’t be bothered trawling back through again. 

I wanted to see if there were any common traits, to help refocus my mind, and to maybe develop a strategy towards the type of horse/profile etc that I should be focusing on. 

Odds

5/2 – 11/2 when tipped = 19/25 winners

6/1-10/1 = 6 winners.

All winners were 10/1 or shorter when posted. There could be some significance there especially over jumps at a time when field sizes haven’t been the biggest and finding those 12/1+ lurkers,  outside of the big races, has seemingly been tough. Now clearly this isn’t an exact science as i’ve only focused on the winners, just to try and find some common patterns. The majority of those have been sent off much shorter, with the odd drifter winning. 

The Profile

23/25 could be classed as UNEXPOSED!!! (i’ll go to bed thinking about that word!) in said code, (chase/hurdles) and more generally. They were generally lightly raced, open to progress. 

Winning Form

21/25 had a previous win under rules to their name, whether UK/Ireland or in France. There’s clearly a lot to be said for a horse that’s proven they can win, especially near the head of the market. With ‘non winners’ I think it’s a case of wanting bigger odds generally, but maybe within the ranges above. 

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Other common traits/profile pointers… in no particular order (and each of these areas could be discussed in great depth…) 

-Trainer was ‘in form’ (usually denoted by the geegez 14 or 30, but in general that trainer’s horses had been going well, recent winners etc) 

-A strong stats element, usually related to trainer (track/that race type- at track etc) / trainer-jockey / trainer’s MO / outside of my ‘way in’,which of course was them being a stats qualifier in section 1 or 3, which meant there was some stats foundation anyway. 

-horse had previous course form – a few ticked that box, not essential, but a big positive 

HOT FORM!! I think one of the most obvious areas to focus on. This is linked to asking whether the horse is well handicapped/likely to be ahead of their mark. Have the races they’ve been running in produced subsequent runners/winners, what are they now rated, has the horse been running in novice/maiden races surrounded by horses rated much higher, indicating they were just outclassed- making even a 20L defeat in a hot Novice race not look too bad…if horse is rated 90 today, but 2L in front of it there was a now 125 rated animal. For example. Hot Form. Hot Form. Hot Form. 

-Are they well handicapped/have they conclusively proven they cannot win from this mark/are they still lightly raced. I can’t keep asking that question enough really, and I need to ask it more, lined to the hot form points above. Obvious I know. 

-Chasers – 13 of the winners I think were in chases… and most of those either led/made all/or raced prominently. 

-Why should the horse improve today, in the context of all of the above, what are they doing differently? I’ve covered some of those themes before but, those common ‘doing something different’ traits from those 25 winners…

  • CLASS DROP (that happened a few times) and/or quality of race- can be same class but up against much lower rated rivals. Or a higher class novice chase into a weak handicap. 
  • Jockey Switch (sometimes on for first time) Again, may be some trainer/jockey stats, or they ride the course well, a more experienced rider taking over etc. 
  • Distance Move- usually up in trip, but occasionally down. 
  • Different track (tight vs galloping, speed vs stamina, RH/LH…now to a track the trainers targets?) 
  • Different Going 
  • Headgear switch/1st time (rarely a positive in sense connections feel like they need it, but with those types not sure you want a short price) 

 

-Are there valid excuses for recent runs/LTO? Linked to why they may improve today of course… and in context that if focusing on unexposed horses in theory they should just get better with racing/time/experience/growing-strengthening up… but… were they unfit / running wrong ground/ wrong trip / outclassed – being forced to go quicker than their cruising speed, using up too much energy too soon, and thus fading… can be linked to wrong trip of course, if a stayer running over shorter than ideal. Every horse has a comfortable cruising speed, idea being they get to business end without changing out of that gear, before maximum effort. The ability of the jockey to time all of that is what separates the riders ability, I think. Has this race been the plan? (linked to trainer track record/and or their record in the race) 

-Video Analysis – i’m getting better at watching replays and the more racing you watch, the more you see. I don’t tip anything now without at least watching their last race. I need to do more of it. A focus on how they travelled/head carriage/at what point they faded (if indeed they didn’t win LTO) / how they jumped / any excuses. Were they keen/strong travelling – thus could do with a bigger field/stronger pace (higher class race/more pace generally), or a shorter trip. Was the race run to suit etc. 

-Assessment of the oppo – are they weak, how many unexposed ones are in the race (the more there are, the more competitive/unknowns/dangers- fewer the better), how many look in form, are not proven in conditions etc

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I think that covers everything i’ve got on my notepad, as I spent a few hours pondering this afternoon. 

All the ingredients are there, and they are all in my head- I could do with writing them into a simple doc I can just refer to, and having a sort of checklist. 

Clearly you can suffer from information overload- and not every horse is going to tick every box above, but many of those aspects I need to focus on… I suppose… UNEXPOSED / HOT FORM- WELL HANDICAPPED / CLASS DROP / TRAINER FORM … would be the main takeaways maybe. 

I’m a HRB user and Geegeez Gold user, which pulls together most of the above and allows me to delve into such things at the click of a button. I’ve still no idea how people use the Racing Post cards etc to crack this game! They are better punters than I. 

I’ll try and get my head screwed on and up my game. My drive in this game has always been solving the puzzle, it’s what I enjoy most, and I hate being wrong so often! This game tames lions at times, which is why it’s so bloody engaging. 

I’ll try and create a shorter ‘checklist’ and put the above into a doc, for those of you who may find some of the content above useful. 

As always, your thoughts and constructive (polite) criticism is always welcome. 

Josh  

p.s I do need to do a piece on ‘losing runs’ at some point also. They’re inevitable, and most punters fail because they are unprepared for them in my view.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

100 Responses

  1. To Martin C. I heard them say on Racing TV tonight that Michael Easterby is +74pts for all rides at Newcastle AW. Not sure what time period this is based on. Could you have a look please. Thought it might be one to add to your System Bets.

    1. Although looking purely at class 6 handicaps he is 13/48, 20p +56.75, +69.3 BFSP which is probably a better way in

      1. and he has been profitable in each of the 3 years since opening in Class 6 handicaps. Cheers Nick.

    2. Just realised I have Inform Racing’s new System Builder Doh!!. So according to that, results for all Michael Easterby horses at Newcastle AW are as follows:
      2016 (May-Dec) 11/63, 21 Pl, +28.83SP, +43.22BSP, Win SR 17.46%
      2017 6/57, 20Pl, -15.88SP, -10.73BSP, Win SR 10.53%
      2018 8/66, 16Pl, +65.13SP, 154.90BSP, Win SR 12.12%

      2018 was somewhat skewed with a 80/1SP, 175.8BSP winner.

      Maybe not as good as they made out when you take away the one big winner.

      I’d be interested to know if those with GeeGeez or HRB get the same results.

    3. It is at Newcastle AW from the start of the track however it is skewed by an 80/1 175 BFSP non-handicap winner (outside of he is 1/38 in non-handicaps)

  2. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT+5.61

    1pt win 3.20 H – Uhlan Bute
    1pt win 3.35 C – Achill Road Boy

    Will settle to 10am odds.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT +7.58

    Sneaked a half point profit on Tuesday. No bets today.

  3. Tips – 1.10 Hereford, Valse Un Taillons, 1 point each way, 15/2 BOG now. An unexposed french import in a novice handicap. Dont you just love a challenge?
    An OK run LTO behind Evidence De Thaix. Has top weight but hopefully has something to give at this level.
    3.20 Hereford, Uhlan Bute, 5/1 BOG, 1 point win. Out again after a good win 7 days ago. The trainer has an history of such tactics to take advantage before weights jump up.

    Good luck.

    1. Farrelly handicappers at Hereford over the past 2 years are 2/5, 3 places.

      Venetia in handicap chases at Hereford over the past 2 years is 2/11, 4 places.

  4. 3.20 Hereford
    Arthurs Gift – 1pt
    Skipthecuddles – saver

    Think they both have lots more to give over fences. Marginally prefer Arthurs Gift as it is a C2 winner over hurdles and its first run over fences has produced a rash of subsequent winners (unexposed/hot form)
    Promising run from STC behind Santini 1st time over fences & i can look over its 2nd outing over fences.

  5. To Martin C. I heard them say on Racing TV tonight that Michael Easterby is +74pts for all rides at Newcastle AW. Not sure what time period this is based on. Could you have a look please. Thought it might be one to add to your System Bets.

    1. It is at Newcastle AW from the start of the track however it is skewed by an 80/1 175 BFSP non-handicap winner (outside of he is 1/38 in non-handicaps)

    2. Although looking purely at class 6 handicaps he is 13/48, 20p +56.75, +69.3 BFSP which is probably a better way in

      1. I have a M W Easterby micro re class 5 and 6 handicaps on the Newcastle all weather. I had Harvest day as a qualifier on Monday and it won at 4/1 } 7/2 but before that he had gone a few losers before so I did not put it up as a systems selection. The micro ignores who the jockey is.

        1. Was another with ridiculously volatile odds. 5/1 this morning. 10/1 lunchtime. 4/1 at the off and wins. Often pays to ignore those morning market moves!

    3. Just realised I have Inform Racing’s new System Builder Doh!!. So according to that, results for all Michael Easterby horses at Newcastle AW are as follows:
      2016 (May-Dec) 11/63, 21 Pl, +28.83SP, +43.22BSP, Win SR 17.46%
      2017 6/57, 20Pl, -15.88SP, -10.73BSP, Win SR 10.53%
      2018 8/66, 16Pl, +65.13SP, 154.90BSP, Win SR 12.12%

      2018 was somewhat skewed with a 80/1SP, 175.8BSP winner.

      Maybe not as good as they made out when you take away the one big winner.

      I’d be interested to know if those with GeeGeez or HRB get the same results.

  6. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT+5.61

    1pt win 3.20 H – Uhlan Bute
    1pt win 3.35 C – Achill Road Boy

    Will settle to 10am odds.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT +7.58

    Sneaked a half point profit on Tuesday. No bets today.

  7. Really good analysis Josh trying to resolve the issue of criteria in making selections…..have been undergoing the same process and have tried several ways in….one of them I did trial in Nov last year here last year but was far too problematical and not consistent…..you mention the racing post website….I used to be a subscriber but much of the information is available for free elsewhere so do not subscribe anymore but I do use their free information for each race by clicking on the stats section on each race and then clicking on the statistical breakdown for each race type…this provides stats related to the race type eg. The 1.10 Hereford has trainer Henry Oliver @ 16% for hurdle races with a +5.50 profit to level stakes…..the info is a basic guide and has no in depth analysis you or HRB or GeeGeez etc., provide but it is useful as a broad brush tool and it is free! Used in conjunction with other free info available it is ok….I do not have the resources to subscribe permanently to tipping services……they are on the whole a waste of money and as a non professional punter prefer trying to find my own way into a race….this is the reason I subscribe to this site as it is a wealth of information from a wide variety of perspectives…even if you do not agree with the contributors the info and experience exhibited is great food for thought…..I am currently trying to price up races using a combination of approaches to try and find the value bets in a given race.. not sure if this will work or not but have have had a go at two races today at Hereford…The first is the 1.10 and have come up with Another Theatre and Valse Au Taillons….
    I have priced (all prices are decimals so for eg 4.44 is approx 3.5/ 1 in fractional terms) up all the horses in this race as follows:
    Another Theatre 4.44 BF Exchange 5.1 Betfair Sportsbook 4.33
    The Knot is Tied 8.82 ” 4.2 ” 3.5
    Eceparti 79.99 ” 7.4 ” 5.5
    Star of Rory 6.66 ” 6.6 ” 6.0
    Monday Club 15.99 ” 8.8 ” 8.0
    Valse Au Taillons 8.82 ” 10.0 ” 8.5
    Cheeky Rascal 7.92 ” 28.0 ” 15.0
    Look For a Rainbow 0.00 ” 19.0 ” 15.0
    Edabean 0.00 ” 40.0 ” 23.0
    Khanisari 39.99 ” 40.0 ” 29.0
    Zorlu 0.00 ” 130.0 ” 101.0

    Obviously I am here to be shot at, especially as Venetia Williams’s horse I have calculated to be a near 80/1 shot!!!!!!but transparency is everything and if this turns out to utter nonsense then at least I have learned something but if you look at some of the prices I have calcujlated horses to be and compare them with the actual industry and exchange prices some show similarity…Star of Rory and Cheeky Rascal look value as well as the two I have put up so will be interesting to see how these do in the real world as that is the acid test…..hope you find this useful and/ or amusing or both….good luck with whatever you are betting.

  8. Apologies for the spelling and grammar errors but it is 2.30 am…got delayed then this took longer than I anticipated zzzzzz

  9. Tips – 1.10 Hereford, Valse Un Taillons, 1 point each way, 15/2 BOG now. An unexposed french import in a novice handicap. Dont you just love a challenge?
    An OK run LTO behind Evidence De Thaix. Has top weight but hopefully has something to give at this level.
    3.20 Hereford, Uhlan Bute, 5/1 BOG, 1 point win. Out again after a good win 7 days ago. The trainer has an history of such tactics to take advantage before weights jump up.

    Good luck.

    1. Farrelly handicappers at Hereford over the past 2 years are 2/5, 3 places.

      Venetia in handicap chases at Hereford over the past 2 years is 2/11, 4 places.

  10. 3.20 Hereford
    Arthurs Gift – 1pt
    Skipthecuddles – saver

    Think they both have lots more to give over fences. Marginally prefer Arthurs Gift as it is a C2 winner over hurdles and its first run over fences has produced a rash of subsequent winners (unexposed/hot form)
    Promising run from STC behind Santini 1st time over fences & i can look over its 2nd outing over fences.

  11. Lingfield 3-10. one that looks interesting is Planetoid 11-1 sky 4 places, better off at the weights with Nafaayes and should have every chance against Argyle if using that as a marker. hasn’t won in 2 years but has run up a string of 4th’s. might be worth a small ew.

  12. Really good analysis Josh trying to resolve the issue of criteria in making selections…..have been undergoing the same process and have tried several ways in….one of them I did trial in Nov last year here last year but was far too problematical and not consistent…..you mention the racing post website….I used to be a subscriber but much of the information is available for free elsewhere so do not subscribe anymore but I do use their free information for each race by clicking on the stats section on each race and then clicking on the statistical breakdown for each race type…this provides stats related to the race type eg. The 1.10 Hereford has trainer Henry Oliver @ 16% for hurdle races with a +5.50 profit to level stakes…..the info is a basic guide and has no in depth analysis you or HRB or GeeGeez etc., provide but it is useful as a broad brush tool and it is free! Used in conjunction with other free info available it is ok….I do not have the resources to subscribe permanently to tipping services……they are on the whole a waste of money and as a non professional punter prefer trying to find my own way into a race….this is the reason I subscribe to this site as it is a wealth of information from a wide variety of perspectives…even if you do not agree with the contributors the info and experience exhibited is great food for thought…..I am currently trying to price up races using a combination of approaches to try and find the value bets in a given race.. not sure if this will work or not but have have had a go at two races today at Hereford…The first is the 1.10 and have come up with Another Theatre and Valse Au Taillons….
    I have priced (all prices are decimals so for eg 4.44 is approx 3.5/ 1 in fractional terms) up all the horses in this race as follows:
    Another Theatre 4.44 BF Exchange 5.1 Betfair Sportsbook 4.33
    The Knot is Tied 8.82 ” 4.2 ” 3.5
    Eceparti 79.99 ” 7.4 ” 5.5
    Star of Rory 6.66 ” 6.6 ” 6.0
    Monday Club 15.99 ” 8.8 ” 8.0
    Valse Au Taillons 8.82 ” 10.0 ” 8.5
    Cheeky Rascal 7.92 ” 28.0 ” 15.0
    Look For a Rainbow 0.00 ” 19.0 ” 15.0
    Edabean 0.00 ” 40.0 ” 23.0
    Khanisari 39.99 ” 40.0 ” 29.0
    Zorlu 0.00 ” 130.0 ” 101.0

    Obviously I am here to be shot at, especially as Venetia Williams’s horse I have calculated to be a near 80/1 shot!!!!!!but transparency is everything and if this turns out to utter nonsense then at least I have learned something but if you look at some of the prices I have calcujlated horses to be and compare them with the actual industry and exchange prices some show similarity…Star of Rory and Cheeky Rascal look value as well as the two I have put up so will be interesting to see how these do in the real world as that is the acid test…..hope you find this useful and/ or amusing or both….good luck with whatever you are betting.

  13. Apologies for the spelling and grammar errors but it is 2.30 am…got delayed then this took longer than I anticipated zzzzzz

  14. RECENT TIPS
    Festival
    H 1.45 – Mulcahys Hill on 3rd run @ 6/4
    H3.20 – The Bay Birch on 2nd run @ 22
    3m+
    H 3.20 – Looksnowtlikebrian on 1st run @ 9
    GL

  15. Two things I’d like to add to what is a very thorough and honest assessment of your own methodology Josh. The first is choose your races, some races are easier than others to get a feel for what is mostly likely to happen and as to whether it will be favourable to the running of your selection. I discount a lot of races purely because there are just too many possibilities as to what may or may not happen.

    Secondly….. Try not to overthink it. I find that the best bets I get kind of come to me without having to try too hard. If I find myself spending an awful lot of time on the one race it rarely has a pleasant outcome, such that I tend to just ditch them these days. Phil Bull once said….. “you can’t construct a good bet, you just have to wait for it to come to you.”

    Another thing I do (and this is just my preference), is don’t look at the forecast, the market or the media commentary until after you’ve completed your analysis. Following this particular method was a real game changer for me.

    1. “…don’t look at the forecast, the market or the media commentary until after you’ve completed your analysis…”

      Absolutely spot on. Too easy to be influenced by external sources.

    2. All very wise words Tim, plenty to absorb there.
      You’re spot on about horses just jumping out at you, that was certainly the case with Cyrname and numerous others I can think of. And yep, when you find yourself pondering for an age, it is probably best to just leave it. I’ve been ok at dodging plenty actually, and feel like i’m getting better when not to get involved, but clearly a fair bit to improve on. I’m convinced the approach mapped out to the daily stats qualifiers will work in time, once I get my head screwed back on and focus on the points discussed above.

      1. Josh….. I find the whole subject of knowing when your on to something fascinating. For example….. Cyrname won by the proverbial country mile and there’s nothing more satisfying than being vindicated by your horse winning in good style. Is nothing better than sitting back in your chair after the race sound in the knowledge that you were really on to something with that horse and the rewards in your betting bank to prove it. So it pleases me to hear that you are experiencing the same thing as I do. The problem is of course that selections such as these aren’t there every day waiting for us with a neon sign on the race card. TBH for me, those kind of bets appear to be sporadic and are most likely to be found when the racing is of better quality. However, Nick for example has commented on this before and says that in his case he finds that it’s there for low class races as well.

        So I can only conclude that ‘feel good factor’ as a phenomenon is a subjective issue that is linked to your own style of analysis and what works for you. Maybe we should all highlight our bets with a ‘feel good’ flag such as 🙂 whenever it occurs and see if the results reflect it in the longer term.

  16. Thought I’d add my two pence worth seeing as there is no racing to look over today.

    One thing that I noted more recently during this losing run which struck a chord with me having read an article on the psychology of betting, was the notion of having ‘jinxed’ a horse having tipped it. That extends much further when you lift the lid on why punters feel this way when they’re in a rut. The notion is of course absolute nonsense, nevertheless I hear it time and time again and what it signifies is a weakened mental approach when betting, especially in the tougher times. The punter has allowed the negative thoughts to penetrate into the conscious act of betting and in some cases tipping a horse. Everyone knows that the horses isn’t jinxed, but subconsciously the punter is defeated before they start when allowing thoughts such as this to permeate their betting approach. Something of subconscious negative or defeated mindset can never be good when trying to make rational decisions based on data we have infront of us. These losing runs are inevitable, be it, 5, 10, 20 or more. It’s remains even more important to retain a healthy mindset and positive approach. I have little doubt over the underlying method and approach, but the application is the subjective part and the part which is mostly heavily influenced by external factors.

      1. Very wise words Lee – thanks for reminding us. Psychology is such a massive influence on us all in life generally. Its an even greater factor for those who have tried (whether seriously or for interest) the Money markets, especially such as the ‘Currency Markets’ which i have dabbled in, and tried seriously at a low stakes level but despite access to seemingly well constructed methodologies, i failed to profit – which seems rather like Sports Betting to be the norm for 95 % plus of those who go down that route. There are some brilliant books explaining about the Psychology such as Mark Douglas – Trading in the zone, and the successful professional Traders say, to a man or woman, that Psychology is 80/90 % the reason for successes! I must say that i do not have the right temperament for Currency Trading and i am pleased i admitted it to myself before modest losses became worse. I am very happy to be involved back in Racing with Josh and many others and their highly valued expertise and efforts. 🙂

    1. One thing that helped me back in the day was denying the existence of luck. I used to think luck existed but it does not. What does exist is randomness, inconsistency, doubt, sample size and the confusion of what average means.

      1. Don’t forget mistakes Martin! we all make them. I’m not he only one to accidentally type the odds in the stake box of an outsider and for it to hose up, or forget to click submit bet and for it to hose up!

  17. COLINS BETS
    Lingfield
    1.30 Chica De La Noche BOG 5/2
    Kempton
    7.45 Ember Glow BOG 3/1
    7.45 Singing The Blues BOG 9/2 negative not won on AW last time out tried 1 mile 4 furlongs for first time at Kempton running a fine 3rd they have put Luke Morris up today for the first time so that should be a major plus.

    ELITE BETS

    Once again No bet

    Colin

  18. After venturing onto the aw yesterday my near miss and small e/w return with Bowson Fred has emboldened me. The one I picked out was Hic Bibi in the Lingfield 1.30pm. With no conviction mind.
    Hugh

      1. Nothing to worry about Hugh, Colins bets in January are very poor beating the odds in most cases but they are not winning must turn around soon.
        Colin

        1. I’ve got Hic Bibi on my short list too Hugh, but I’d need to see 10.0 or better to get involved. Which right now seems unlikely for me, but good luck if you are already on.

  19. Well it was nicely spaced out when I typed this up so not sure what happened…there are three prices.1st is my expected price, 2nd is Betfair Sporstbook and 3rd. Betfair Exchange…apologies for the confusion

    1. oh there’s always been a formatting issue with posting comments and it merging them, will hopefully be sorted if/when I change comments software etc.

  20. Lingfield 3-10. one that looks interesting is Planetoid 11-1 sky 4 places, better off at the weights with Nafaayes and should have every chance against Argyle if using that as a marker. hasn’t won in 2 years but has run up a string of 4th’s. might be worth a small ew.

  21. Liked the analysis Josh – i like your honesty as long as you don’t beat yourself up! Despite having that 29 losing run (ouch!) i have kept my staking and Bank at sensible levels. Not yet in profit BUT i will be. Have cut down the number of ‘elements to follow’ (i should have taken your advice on 4 or 5 – but hey ‘kid (even over 60 🙂 ) in a sweet shop’ syndrome i think. Yesterday was a salutatory lesson in sticking with the core strategies and was delighted with the 25/1. Now feel confident my approach is balanced and sensible and wont get me overloaded with too many selections overall. Onwards and upwards !

    1. When I was first on this site Josh was more of a specialist, i.e. three mile chasers etc. When you stretch your net wider it becomes harder. Nick has shown all that it can be done but it is very hard. When it comes to horse racing I tend to stick with jumps racing and then sprints on the flat. Anything else tends to be systems based selections, which I tend to be best at.
      I can say the normal things such as the importance of focus and clearing your mind and learning from success and failure. But Josh knows that anyway.
      I would say stick at it, maybe semi specialise for a while and see how it goes.

      1. That hasn’t changed Martin – the main races I like to get stuck into are those big 3m+ handicap chases – when looking back at all the profits from those/big races, it became apparent they were all made from the ‘big’ C2/G3 ‘saturday’ handicaps which I still focus on and/or the regional ‘nationals’, in general. The rest of the 3m+ chasing seemed to pay for itself, if not run at a loss. There’s only so many hours in the day, esp mentally, hence why I do far less Monday-Friday on the free posts – and given the blog started with me regularly looking at all 3m+ handicap chases, daily, that’s why those big races will stay on those posts. Clearly it makes more business sense also for majority of my energies to be spent in members club. But I still like to think I ‘specialise’ to an extent in those- but yep have clearly tried to broaden the net on the daily front in here- I will make it work one day, and you need more than one string to your bow in this game, albeit not too many.
        But yep, a narrow focus is better than a wider one for sure.
        Anyway, with no jumps racing today, plenty of time to ponder!

  22. Only the one I mentioned in earlier post this morning @ Lingers.

    1.30 Hic Bibi……….. 10.0

    Has drifted back nearer to the required odds (currently 9.4), doesn’t bother me as it opened on B/F at 12.5. So I’m thinking of it as a market correction if it makes the odds.

    1. Evening Tim. Did you watch the 1.30 race by any chance? I picked out Hic Bibi out as a bet last night on the basis it was a front runner and it had a good draw so thought it would get out fast and try make all but after just reading the results it says it was held up. I’m just wondering if they were trying something different or it was slowly away. Cheers

  23. Put off by price never to old to be a fool.
    Lambourn Trainer Quotes still look at these rare have a bet difficult to decide, however backed a couple of Brendan Powell’s before today reading the write up thought yes and they were showing 16/1 by the side of the horse so checked Oddschecker and Exchange both showing 33/1, so forgot about it till looked at result won 10/1. Brendan’s quote
    The steady pace didn’t suit last time and at his best off this mark he should be going close.
    And he even had Shane Kelly in the plate who i rate highly at this level.
    Brendan is honest from what i have seen and if he mentions ew then they tend to run well.
    Colin
    What a fool i am today.

  24. RECENT TIPS
    Festival
    H 1.45 – Mulcahys Hill on 3rd run @ 6/4
    H3.20 – The Bay Birch on 2nd run @ 22
    3m+
    H 3.20 – Looksnowtlikebrian on 1st run @ 9
    GL

  25. I dunno Colin… I wouldn’t beat yourself up about it. Hindsight is always one of those exercises where it’s easy to fool yourself. If it hadn’t placed the possibility of taking the bet would most likely have escaped you altogether.

  26. Two things I’d like to add to what is a very thorough and honest assessment of your own methodology Josh. The first is choose your races, some races are easier than others to get a feel for what is mostly likely to happen and as to whether it will be favourable to the running of your selection. I discount a lot of races purely because there are just too many possibilities as to what may or may not happen.

    Secondly….. Try not to overthink it. I find that the best bets I get kind of come to me without having to try too hard. If I find myself spending an awful lot of time on the one race it rarely has a pleasant outcome, such that I tend to just ditch them these days. Phil Bull once said….. “you can’t construct a good bet, you just have to wait for it to come to you.”

    Another thing I do (and this is just my preference), is don’t look at the forecast, the market or the media commentary until after you’ve completed your analysis. Following this particular method was a real game changer for me.

    1. “…don’t look at the forecast, the market or the media commentary until after you’ve completed your analysis…”

      Absolutely spot on. Too easy to be influenced by external sources.

    2. All very wise words Tim, plenty to absorb there.
      You’re spot on about horses just jumping out at you, that was certainly the case with Cyrname and numerous others I can think of. And yep, when you find yourself pondering for an age, it is probably best to just leave it. I’ve been ok at dodging plenty actually, and feel like i’m getting better when not to get involved, but clearly a fair bit to improve on. I’m convinced the approach mapped out to the daily stats qualifiers will work in time, once I get my head screwed back on and focus on the points discussed above.

      1. Josh….. I find the whole subject of knowing when your on to something fascinating. For example….. Cyrname won by the proverbial country mile and there’s nothing more satisfying than being vindicated by your horse winning in good style. Is nothing better than sitting back in your chair after the race sound in the knowledge that you were really on to something with that horse and the rewards in your betting bank to prove it. So it pleases me to hear that you are experiencing the same thing as I do. The problem is of course that selections such as these aren’t there every day waiting for us with a neon sign on the race card. TBH for me, those kind of bets appear to be sporadic and are most likely to be found when the racing is of better quality. However, Nick for example has commented on this before and says that in his case he finds that it’s there for low class races as well.

        So I can only conclude that ‘feel good factor’ as a phenomenon is a subjective issue that is linked to your own style of analysis and what works for you. Maybe we should all highlight our bets with a ‘feel good’ flag such as 🙂 whenever it occurs and see if the results reflect it in the longer term.

  27. Thought I’d add my two pence worth seeing as there is no racing to look over today.

    One thing that I noted more recently during this losing run which struck a chord with me having read an article on the psychology of betting, was the notion of having ‘jinxed’ a horse having tipped it. That extends much further when you lift the lid on why punters feel this way when they’re in a rut. The notion is of course absolute nonsense, nevertheless I hear it time and time again and what it signifies is a weakened mental approach when betting, especially in the tougher times. The punter has allowed the negative thoughts to penetrate into the conscious act of betting and in some cases tipping a horse. Everyone knows that the horses isn’t jinxed, but subconsciously the punter is defeated before they start when allowing thoughts such as this to permeate their betting approach. Something of subconscious negative or defeated mindset can never be good when trying to make rational decisions based on data we have infront of us. These losing runs are inevitable, be it, 5, 10, 20 or more. It’s remains even more important to retain a healthy mindset and positive approach. I have little doubt over the underlying method and approach, but the application is the subjective part and the part which is mostly heavily influenced by external factors.

      1. Very wise words Lee – thanks for reminding us. Psychology is such a massive influence on us all in life generally. Its an even greater factor for those who have tried (whether seriously or for interest) the Money markets, especially such as the ‘Currency Markets’ which i have dabbled in, and tried seriously at a low stakes level but despite access to seemingly well constructed methodologies, i failed to profit – which seems rather like Sports Betting to be the norm for 95 % plus of those who go down that route. There are some brilliant books explaining about the Psychology such as Mark Douglas – Trading in the zone, and the successful professional Traders say, to a man or woman, that Psychology is 80/90 % the reason for successes! I must say that i do not have the right temperament for Currency Trading and i am pleased i admitted it to myself before modest losses became worse. I am very happy to be involved back in Racing with Josh and many others and their highly valued expertise and efforts. 🙂

    1. One thing that helped me back in the day was denying the existence of luck. I used to think luck existed but it does not. What does exist is randomness, inconsistency, doubt, sample size and the confusion of what average means.

      1. Don’t forget mistakes Martin! we all make them. I’m not he only one to accidentally type the odds in the stake box of an outsider and for it to hose up, or forget to click submit bet and for it to hose up!

      2. Absolutely correct Martin. There are 3 factors at work here, method is number 1. How do we as punters arrive at a point where we have to apply the subjective analysis or choice. Is this method ‘good’? Does it routinely identify the correct ‘shortlist’ of candidates before the subjective analysis is applied. (by the way, I hate those Twitter punters who come up lines like ‘i had a shortlist of 3 and picked the wrong one’… again!!).

        Number 2 is of course the subjective analysis itself. At some point we all have to choose horse A over horse B or decide they have equal enough merit in respect of the prices available and choose both. Nevertheless, we have choice and this is the most influenced part of the game. “Oh… Horse A has halved in price, the yard must fancy it”. Sometimes this is a good indicator, but usually for me, this takes place on course or certainly closer to the off. The shift in most markets at early prices is more than likely due to the massive army of tipsters and followers on Twitter or oddschecker tipsters and the like. Anyway my point is, switch off external influences as much as is practical, that includes the subconscious psychology of betting.

        Number 3 is variance. We are all playing a numbers game here really. A horse priced at 16/1 has around a 6% chance of winning. If you think the chance is significantly higher you place a bet. You might seem that chance to be 14% (6/1). Therefore, even though you’ve secured ‘value’ in your eyes, there is still a significantly greater chance that the horse will lose, than win. That’s just numbers. Now take into account that not every race will play out exactly as it should, there will be good fortune, bad fortune but in round terms you’d hope that would balance itself out and reduce the long term variance, but of course the mind is powerful, we bemoan bad luck, we aren’t always great at processing bad emotions and this again influences our betting psychology. To be truly successful in this game, you’ve gotta be talented, discliplined, considered but most of all you’ve got to be ultra tough.

  28. COLINS BETS
    Lingfield
    1.30 Chica De La Noche BOG 5/2
    Kempton
    7.45 Ember Glow BOG 3/1
    7.45 Singing The Blues BOG 9/2 negative not won on AW last time out tried 1 mile 4 furlongs for first time at Kempton running a fine 3rd they have put Luke Morris up today for the first time so that should be a major plus.

    ELITE BETS

    Once again No bet

    Colin

  29. After venturing onto the aw yesterday my near miss and small e/w return with Bowson Fred has emboldened me. The one I picked out was Hic Bibi in the Lingfield 1.30pm. With no conviction mind.
    Hugh

      1. Nothing to worry about Hugh, Colins bets in January are very poor beating the odds in most cases but they are not winning must turn around soon.
        Colin

        1. I’ve got Hic Bibi on my short list too Hugh, but I’d need to see 10.0 or better to get involved. Which right now seems unlikely for me, but good luck if you are already on.

  30. Well Hereford work a bust but have applied the same methodology to 1.30 at Lingfield:
    Horse Expected Price Betfair Sportsbook Betfair Exchange
    Chica De La Noche 4.36 3.5 4.1
    Playfull Spirit 48 5.0 5.9
    Sweet Nature 31.99 5.5 7.0
    Hic Bibi 8.75 7.5 7.8
    First Link 0 9.5 10.50
    Lady Marigold 12.00 9.5 10.00
    Sonnet Rose 6.85 15.00 15.00
    The Special One 9.6 19.00 23.00
    Time Stands Still 9.6 26.00 30.00

    As you can see both Playfull Spirit and Sweet Nature are big Expected prices as the horses themselves have no form that is good enough to score high but the market has priced them up on trainer reputation hence the price discrepancy……unexposed horses from quality trainers are always problematical so it is a judgement call if deciding to back them…..Time Stands Still is interesting despite of the price and the draw as it has won at Dundalk in a similar grade off 9-7 and today, with the jockeys claim is 9lbs well in and is a big enough price to chance e/w…..Hic Bibi is priced about right though Sonnet Rose is interesting as the available price represents value as it is above double what I have calculated the price should be…..hope this is food for thought and will see how the race pans out….good luck if playing in the race whatever you are backing..

    1. Reflections on rating system: Unexposed horses impossible to find by system is the first conclusion so has to be combined with other
      criteria like quality of previous runs, speed figures, trainer success (winner was 1/7 at course) sire stats., jockey stats for course, pace, draw, trainer info, etc. so what criteria takes priority is the question and how to quantify that in a ratings system…Unexposed also means that form is questionable so trying to assess potential to win when figures suggest that on all known criteria it will not win is impossible…any thoughts on how to assess unexposed horses other than using a pin would be welcome…..conclusion, in using a ratings system which is essentially form based, is to ignore races that have unexposed horses in them and focus on races that have proven form horses….answers on a postcard please!

      1. Unexposed horses – a good crystal ball helps. What about their sire and their record with such; what about the trainer and their record with such; what about the owner and what they look for from such horses, either short or long term?

        Trevor Hemmings always likes a chased over a distance of ground and so his horses may have that in mind long term and will be brought along with that in mind.
        A new syndicate may require something more short term?

        1. True there are many criteria as you list and no doubt a lot more that have not been included but if you have a decent crystal ball that will do in the interim but probably cost prohibitive!! Cheers for the comments.

  31. Well it was nicely spaced out when I typed this up so not sure what happened…there are three prices.1st is my expected price, 2nd is Betfair Sporstbook and 3rd. Betfair Exchange…apologies for the confusion

    1. oh there’s always been a formatting issue with posting comments and it merging them, will hopefully be sorted if/when I change comments software etc.

  32. Only the one I mentioned in earlier post this morning @ Lingers.

    1.30 Hic Bibi……….. 10.0

    Has drifted back nearer to the required odds (currently 9.4), doesn’t bother me as it opened on B/F at 12.5. So I’m thinking of it as a market correction if it makes the odds.

    1. Evening Tim. Did you watch the 1.30 race by any chance? I picked out Hic Bibi out as a bet last night on the basis it was a front runner and it had a good draw so thought it would get out fast and try make all but after just reading the results it says it was held up. I’m just wondering if they were trying something different or it was slowly away. Cheers

  33. Put off by price never to old to be a fool.
    Lambourn Trainer Quotes still look at these rare have a bet difficult to decide, however backed a couple of Brendan Powell’s before today reading the write up thought yes and they were showing 16/1 by the side of the horse so checked Oddschecker and Exchange both showing 33/1, so forgot about it till looked at result won 10/1. Brendan’s quote
    The steady pace didn’t suit last time and at his best off this mark he should be going close.
    And he even had Shane Kelly in the plate who i rate highly at this level.
    Brendan is honest from what i have seen and if he mentions ew then they tend to run well.
    Colin
    What a fool i am today.

  34. I dunno Colin… I wouldn’t beat yourself up about it. Hindsight is always one of those exercises where it’s easy to fool yourself. If it hadn’t placed the possibility of taking the bet would most likely have escaped you altogether.

  35. Liked the analysis Josh – i like your honesty as long as you don’t beat yourself up! Despite having that 29 losing run (ouch!) i have kept my staking and Bank at sensible levels. Not yet in profit BUT i will be. Have cut down the number of ‘elements to follow’ (i should have taken your advice on 4 or 5 – but hey ‘kid (even over 60 🙂 ) in a sweet shop’ syndrome i think. Yesterday was a salutatory lesson in sticking with the core strategies and was delighted with the 25/1. Now feel confident my approach is balanced and sensible and wont get me overloaded with too many selections overall. Onwards and upwards !

    1. When I was first on this site Josh was more of a specialist, i.e. three mile chasers etc. When you stretch your net wider it becomes harder. Nick has shown all that it can be done but it is very hard. When it comes to horse racing I tend to stick with jumps racing and then sprints on the flat. Anything else tends to be systems based selections, which I tend to be best at.
      I can say the normal things such as the importance of focus and clearing your mind and learning from success and failure. But Josh knows that anyway.
      I would say stick at it, maybe semi specialise for a while and see how it goes.

      1. That hasn’t changed Martin – the main races I like to get stuck into are those big 3m+ handicap chases – when looking back at all the profits from those/big races, it became apparent they were all made from the ‘big’ C2/G3 ‘saturday’ handicaps which I still focus on and/or the regional ‘nationals’, in general. The rest of the 3m+ chasing seemed to pay for itself, if not run at a loss. There’s only so many hours in the day, esp mentally, hence why I do far less Monday-Friday on the free posts – and given the blog started with me regularly looking at all 3m+ handicap chases, daily, that’s why those big races will stay on those posts. Clearly it makes more business sense also for majority of my energies to be spent in members club. But I still like to think I ‘specialise’ to an extent in those- but yep have clearly tried to broaden the net on the daily front in here- I will make it work one day, and you need more than one string to your bow in this game, albeit not too many.
        But yep, a narrow focus is better than a wider one for sure.
        Anyway, with no jumps racing today, plenty of time to ponder!

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