Members Daily Post: 22/01/19 (Tipsx3/complete)

Tips x3, Section 1 (complete), test zone, New…Henry Brooke…

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Kelso

12.55 – Dance of Fire (micro runs) 20/1 S2A UP

1.25 – Mighty Thunder (m TJC)  w1 H1 G3 9/4 UP

3.25 –

Ted Veale (m dist)  H3 10/1 S2 

Uptown Funk (m +class) 14 G1 5/1 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

Leicester

2.40 –

Astracad (all Hc’s) H3 G3 13/2 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 3rd 

Leg Lock Luke (all Hc’s) 9/1 UP

Nomination Game (all Hc’s) H3 I3 4/1 UP

3.10 – Imperial Nemesis (all Hc’s) 12/1 S2 UP (needs further on that evidence) 

3.40 –

Pauls Hill   (nov HcCh)  w2 I3 G1 7/1 S1+S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)  UP

Another Stowaway   (nov HcCh) 9/1 WON 9/1>8/1 

4.15 –

Lara Trot   (all Hc’s) 25/1 S2A WON 25/1>16/1 , 28.00 BFSP 

Tara Well   (all Hc’s) H3 I3 10/1 S2 S5 2nd 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -5.4 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/3,2p, +5)

 

Daily Tips

2.40 Leic – Riddlestown – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP usually races prominently, never put into the race, maybe they have a plan somewhere else albeit he is 12 now.

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/143,65p, +11.8, 1 point win)

1.55 Kelso – Cool Valley – 7/1 (SkyB/Lad/BV/Coral) 13/2 (others) UP

2.40 Leic – Troika Steppes – 12/1 (gen) UP, went ok for a time, but flattened out as turned for home.

hmm, that plan didn’t work, back to the drawing board. Permission to call me an idiot. 

 

Cool Valley – a lightly raced 10 year old to kick off proceedings! Our man Henry Brookes jumps aboard for the first time and he couldn’t be in much better form at the moment. I thought he’d try and make all/get these on the stretch here and play catch me if you can. I think 17f on this more galloping track (compared to Muss certainly) could be right up his street. He arrives in form, having been beaten 2L LTO by an unexposed 114 rated chaser, and only just behind another unexposed chaser. He gave it a good go from the front there for a time, as he did here in November over 22f, fading after the last, again losing to an unexposed one. I thought he could be a couple of points too big and he does respond for pressure so as yet I don’t have an attitude query from what i’ve seen. I don’t think this is a strong race as I’m not sure what the form of the others amounts to… Some Reign – the Dobbin yard have been quiet for an age now and i think they’ve had illness issues, so i’d want to see more from the yard before wading into one of hers at 4s. The horse is unexposed but this trip/ground is a question. Monsieur Co – he could win, and has finished ahead of mine at Muss over 15.5f, but he tried 17f here in November and didn’t seem to stay albeit that was his first run of the season. I think he has a couple of questions in the context of his price – he is now 0/8,0p over 16f+ in handicaps (win was over 15.5f around Muss) and 0/5,0p left handed – those stats do make 3s look tight enough. The main danger is clearly Lucinda’s horse who’s progressive and seemingly in form. She is 8lb higher than that chase win two runs ago and needed every yard of this trip to overhaul the 12 year old Civil Unrest late on. Fox let CU get away from him there and there’s every chance Brooke can do the same, but hopefully just keep going after the last. Clearly if he doesn’t get away on the front end that’s the main reason for backing him gone out the window but off this low weight, and given the rating of the horse that beat him LTO, I think he can compete in this race. We shall see.

2.40 Leic –

On the daily front i’ve been struggling forever it seems, struggling to find any consistency. I have been trying to formulate a more strategic plan of attack, with the main focus being unexposed horses in said code. Today i’ve somewhat thrown that out the window and maybe it will be a new low before getting my head into a more disciplined place from tomorrow. Anyway…

Riddlestown – he shouldn’t be 16/1 here. I know he’s getting on a bit but it was only 4 starts ago that he was beating Mercers Court off this mark, 109. He was rated 108 there, and would go on to win 3 times later on in the summer, reaching OR 124. There was a massive gap back to the rest in that Towcester race. He then ran over too short a trip at Southwell off a mark he’s never won at, before having his 7th start of that campaign at Uttoxeter in a deep enough race. I suspect he’d had enough by then. They freshened him up and he returned 37 days ago and went ok until about 4 from home, on ground he’d wouldn’t have enjoyed. Jack Andrews jumps back on, he races prominently when on song, will clearly stay this trip, and he gets very fast ground for the time of year – that isn’t sure to suit many in this but it seems to be his preferred surface. Connections may have decided to bring him back earlier than planned due to how dry the season has been so far. I thought 16s was too big, especially given the oppo which i’ll get onto in a moment.

Troika Steppes – this is clearly all about the blinkers. I suppose you can find a stat somewhere to support whatever case you wish to make, but i couldn’t ignore Fergal’s headgear / PU stats when digging…He’s 5/21,7p, +31 with horses wearing 1st time blinkers sent off 20/1 or shorter, 2/4 with those that PU LTO. In all Chases with horses that PU LTO, 12/1< SP, he’s 20/75,34p, +68 BFSP. When their last run was the first in 61-90 days (suggesting may have needed it etc) 9/18,11p, +51 BFSP. The horse is also 2/3 in chases at the track and has only ever won a chase in this rest pattern – 16-30 days (3/8,4p). Paddy jumps back on, his mark has plummeted, the yard are banging down the door with placed horses suggesting a flurry of winners soon, and they will try and make all. Clearly he could just be gone at the game and this is one last hurrah before they retire him, but there was something there which made me want to have a go. Hopefully I get a run for my money and he isn’t struggling after the 1st fence, but that’s not impossible.

Part of the reason for wading in with these two is my assessment of the opposition – the Webber horse is the right fav but he can be held up, does have to prove his stamina (runs as if may relish it, but a question at 11/4), any good to firm is a question, and the only time he went RH over fences so far, he UR at the first fence. Richie M is also out of form and I doubt riding with much confidence- 0/29,3p in the last month, and he’s 0/37,5p at the track in the last 5 years. He is still unexposed and he is in form, so I won’t be shocked if he takes this, but enough niggles at the price. I looked at Nomination Game and IF he settles, he may not be far away, and Jack may work his magic. He was my starting point in this but I decided 4s wasn’t overly generous- he still hasn’t learnt to settle and i’d want to see him switch off and relax before backing him at those odds- that pulling cost him LTO as he faded over the last, having taken it up. He runs over further here. I suspect they will hold him up again, due to that pulling, so will have to make up ground at pace at some point. Unless they try and settle him on the front end. But he can beat me at those odds, and he has yet to win a race. So, that’s short. The rest have even more questions to my eyes – The Happy Chappy, River Intrigue, Another Day Done do just look out of sorts and have enough questions for me for one reason or another. Astracad is even older than my two pokes and I thought 7s wasn’t overly generous for one that is 2/31 in his career and has yet to win over this far. Leg Lock Luke has enough questions to answer and it’s not impossible he’s been bought for Tom’s son to get even more practice under rules. He’s hard to predict and is 0/13 in C4. That leaves Trigger Nichol – I assume Sam had the choice of him or Astracad- he is unexposed, but was a bit too poor for me over 16f here LTO. The step up in trip could help but two starts back he didn’t seem to get home over 20f at Southwell, albeit soft. At Huntingdon he showed potential promise for the trip, but it’s only his 2nd chase start and he’s now 0/10,3p in his career and has been beaten at 6/1 or shorter five times. Some questions for him at around 7s, but clearly on 2nd chase start I won’t be shocked  if he goes ok for his in form yard. I wouldn’t want to back him though at that price.

So, three pokes, some method to my increasing madness. I am planning on going through all 29 winners i’ve tipped in the ‘best of’ the stats section to try and find some patterns, and get my daily head screwed on. It’s possible I need more focus and a more methodical approach to my daily punting, and i’m working on a few ideas etc.

Best of luck.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.40 L – Troika Steppes 14/1

3.40 L – Pauls Hills 7/1

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow

1.25 K – Taxmeifyoucan (11/1< guide) 16/1

1.55 K – Monsieur Co (11/1< guide) 11/4

3.25 K – Uptown Funk (11/1< guide) 5/1

NEW! Henry Brooke (25/1< guide) (notes below) 

1.55 K – Cool Valley 6/1

2.25 K – Shepherd Storm 40/1

3.55 K – Kaizer 28/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NEW! something to muse over…

Which jockeys are doing the business/improving?

You can read what follows in an online PDF (save it etc) HERE>>> 

 

Which jockeys are doing the business/improving?

 

I’ve copied this image from someone I follow on twitter, who’s an avid user of Timeform I think. (too expensive for me!) I believe it shows the ‘running to form’ % , which in this case are those that are running to their timeform rating, or indeed beyond it I assume. The figures on the far right are for 2018/19, vs the average since 15/16. Green is good, (rider is improving), red not so much!

In summary… Wayne Hutchinson is doing very well, the hype around Harry Cobden is clearly merited, Ruby is just Ruby – ultra consistent still, Mark Walsh is better than Barry Geraghty (who still seems to be consistent, but the former appears to be getting better) and Henry Brooke… well he just appears to be improving year on year since 2016/17. Nico de Boinville hasn’t done too badly either.

 

Henry Brooke

In this report I want to just focus on Henry Brooke for now. I’ve noted him riding a few winners of late and in fact in 2019 he’s 5/25,10p, +8 BFSP.

What could be behind his recent transformation/improvement? Maybe an idea from a recent newspaper article…

 

He’s much stronger than he was and determined to ride what he can. He is undoubtedly an upgrade when sat on many horses, compared to who may have been on them previously, especially ‘up north’.  (his booking could often be significant as an indication as to the horse’s chance today)

As I write he’s just made all to win the last race at Sedgefield. That’s now 6/21 in the last 14 days I believe. He’s certainly in form.

Some stats…

Well I’m just going to look from the start of 2018. Yes it’s arguably small samples but the hope is to find the odd angle in it’s infancy, knowing that as per the timeform table above, he appears to be getting better as a jockey.

 Since the start of 2018…

 

Micro Angle

  • Henry Brooke
  • All CHASES / NHF
  • Class 4 or 5
  • 25/1 or shorter SP (guide, 0/20,1p over this)

101 bets / 24 wins / 41 places / 24% sr / +91 SP / +135 BFSP / AE 1.57 / Chi 5.91

 

Within this angle…

  • Those sent off 7/1 or shorter: 18/50,28p , +34 SP
  • Riding in the North East or Yorkshire: 16/47, 21p, +76 SP, +109 BFSP
  • In class 1 he is 3/10,3p, +14.48 BFSP
  • Those running in SAME CLASS as LTO: 16/53, 22p, 30% sr, +142 BFSP
  • Those with 0-1 RUN in National Hunt Race Type : 15/42,18p, 36% sr , +91 BFSP
  • Those with 0-1 WIN in National Hunt Race Type: 23/84,37p, 27% sr, +146 BFSP

 

From those stats above, when Brooke DID NOT ride the horse LTO

50 bets / 15 wins / 25p / 30% sr / +77 SP / +109 BFSP / AE 2.21/ Chi 11.49

Within those initial micro angle ‘rules’ above, in Handicap Hurdles he’s only 4/76, 20p.. -27 SP. After his winner at Sedgefield on the 21/01/19 he’s now 2/5,2p in 2019, so is something to watch. It would make logical sense I think why he may be better generally over fences, or with younger unexposed horses in NHF races- it could be argued they’re a greater test of skill/pace judgement/ jumping rhythm than handicap hurdles, where in general he may have been getting on some mediocre animals that even AP wouldn’t get home in-front.

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That’s all for this ‘report’, I hope you’ve found it useful. I’ll take a close look at Wayne Hutchinson at some point to see if I can unearth any angles.

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

142 Responses

    1. She was wonderful; she knew she’d got it wrong taking off a stride too soon and did all she could with her neck to lift MS back up. He was agile but she was strong.

  1. Good stuff Josh, it’s amazing how the stats and one’s perception can differ. This season Wayne H had become one to avoid for me. It all started at Bangor in the Autumn on one for Alan King, 8/1, coming to the last with the race won and he asked for a big one un-necessarily and put the horse on the floor, like Daryl Jacob with Might Bite at Kempton in the 2016 Kauto Star Novices. How the memories linger! Anyway, I shall put away my prejudices about Wayne for the time being. I’ve got a feeling though that he was very high in Matt’s jocks who fall off table.
    Hugh

    1. I can recall Choc Thornton also featuring very prominently in that particular table Hugh, maybe it’s something to do with Alan King’s training methods?

    2. Hi Hugh
      Always frustrating when you have backed them coming down at the last however on the other side of the coin years ago Hywel Davies for all us oldies was almost a fence clear at the last and he decided to slow down and pop the fence but the horse lost all momentum and fell if he had gone for it he would have won, who would be a jockey? cannot remember the course or horse but did i curse him at the time.
      Colin.

      1. Colin, do you remember that hurdle race when none of the jockeys wanted to make it? Warren Marston was on the hot favourite and when they got to the first hurdle they were going so slow that the horse dug its heels in and Warren popped over the hurdle without the horse. I think it may have been one of Richard Phillips’.
        Hugh

    3. YEP BRILLIANT JOSH AS ALWAYS …. he’s been on my radar for some time ….. especially on LH tracks (he must have a stronger left hand 🙂 )

      gl/gb 🙂

      1. haha. Well I assume that will be because he’s generally based in the North…not many RH tracks up north, certainly when excluding Scotland. May be linked to some of the trainers he rides for and what tracks they target etc. I can’t think there is a technical riding reason why he’d be better going one way or the other, but you never know, esp if able to get them onto X lead lead, and how he presents horses at fences say – but that may be a bit far fetched. When he does come south, and into more RH tracks, they are probably invariably higher class/more competitive races.

    4. Dont forget there are a fair few jockeys coming through not on this list that are pushing this lot. It is useful info but dont forget the younger guys and girls coming through.

      1. I don’t think they are pushing that lot in terms of that table yet? They are the top 21 jockeys I think who are riding 47%+ of their mounts up to or past their timeform rating in the 18/19 season, assume since 1st May but I could be wrong. May be a minimum no. Rides also, not sure. Clearly likes of Rex Dingle doing well at moment. Test for them is how they develop over time /larger sample when claims are reduced etc. Then again many metrics you can use I suppose but that table is handy enough and I should probably study it more closely.

  2. Just signed up to geegees gold today in the hope that in the not too far future I’ll be picking out my own winners more regularly. If any members on here have any tips on starting out on this journey then I’m all ears! I’m not necessarily new to horseracing but I am new at looking at picking my own winners! I’m aware there’s a few videos to watch what Matt B has done. Thanks in advance. Any comments welcome.

    1. Well Stan you’ve headed to the right spot if that’s your aim, and with some patience, and time, you’ll get there… picking your own winners out is the most satisfying after all.
      I few weeks back I recorded a ‘how I use geegeez gold’ promo when Matt did a big push i helped him on…

      you can watch that/read that post here >>> http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/10/02/geegeez-gold/

      In truth I clearly need to be better at using it myself, as I find myself in another slump on the ‘best of/daily’ front and much pondering there. The key could be to try and focus in on a handful of ‘ways in’ or starting points with gold. You can be overwhelmed initially. You could stick to all age handicaps for example, and ignore C5/6 on the flat/AW, or C5 over jumps. So, you could narrow down ‘race types’ to approach.

      Then you can focus on ways in… you could use the pace maps, and try and just focus on those prominent racers/front runners, before further analysis. You could just the ‘instant expert’ and be very disciplined and wait for those that just leap out. Or you could use ‘trainer form’ icons within the race cards, or the report icons/stats drop downs, or whatever.

      From there you could then say you’re analysing the horse, having found a ‘way in’ – and there’s two sides to the punting coin… with shades of grey in the middle… you can stick with exposed handicappers, who are coming back down the ratings having not raced in ideal conditions, but today they do – (instant expert likely to highlight those), or you could focus on unexposed horses, those who have yet to show their full hand to the handicapper, and trying to work out why they may ‘improve’ for today – what are they doing different etc.
      I’m trying to become better at using ‘hot form’ and the ‘then what’ features, as I think they are important, for whatever pool of horses you focus on.

      Of course that’s just an example, you have horses with profiles in between those two extremes, but most races are won by unexposed horses I think, but of course you get plenty of lower grade races with exposed handicappers just running up against each other, and it’s who is well handicapped and best fits conditions on the day. Skelton’s handicap chase winner at Warwick would be an example of one who’s experienced, but still unexposed, and he hacked up again , having been 3/4 chasing before today etc.

      Then you of course have all the stats reports etc, you could focus on those as a ‘way in’ , or pick your fav, or you can just flick through the cards each day, with eyes focused on ‘x’ starting point as above.

      Less is more I think, initially, and trying to be focused on quality over quantity, as there will be times you lose faith and have to get through them! Of course I say all of the above not in great form myself, and in truth not having found a systematic way with my tipping etc, mentally or in practice, to use those tools + my content to best effect. Well, it doesn’t feel like it at the moment! But it will all click again. I should probably focus in on some of my own musings above! You can try and do too much and over think as well, and honing your instinct is important.
      I know there are a few gold subscribers on these pages and a few will have their own methods no doubt, but those are some ideas.

      Josh

      1. Thanks for the comments guys. I watched the first lengthy video last night. The second one tonight… Then once I’ve watched them all and had a good look around the website and had a play with the different tools on there I’ll pick a couple of races each day and see how I go on for a few weeks see if I get pick anything decent out. Would you say there’s any races indefinitely don’t want to be touching? Obviously I won’t be looking at races with 2/3yo handicaps as there’s not much form to look at and too many unknowns. I’m also wondering whether to look at both NH and AW or just stick to one at the minute to save time. Cheers again.

        1. I would specialise and it depends on what you enjoy etc. I can see the appeal of AW betting because of the constants involved. I don’t have enough mental capacity to look at that and jumps, but it’s up to you. I’d try and pick one, unless you pick a handful of race types in each – but i’d generally be focusing on all age handicaps personally. But, like Tim and his focus on novice/maidens, you can do either, but I think it’s important to try and specialise.

        2. I would take a look at NH handicaps with 10-14 runners. You will get some exposed horses running and be certain of 3 places after some non runners coming out. Avoid novice races for now or full stop really.

    2. I strongly advise you to watch them videos mate. They’ll tell you everything you need to know. They cover loads of different things. I’ve been a member around 12 months now and GeeGeez is superb. Great value for the money.

    3. Yes watch the videos and run a few reports. Have a go at a few races using the tools and see what you come up to. You can also email Matt with questions. There are also a few users on here to ask. Stat Of The Day is going well in the Tips section.

  3. Well I seem be stuck in neutral this month but I guess break even is better than being down:

    Mudawwan Newcastle 19:15 1pt e/w 10/1
    Smugglers Creek Newcastle 19:45 1pt e/w 8/1

    1. Doing well to be level this month, I would say. I half follow several well-established ‘pro’ tipsters and they are almost all in negative territory this month, some by a big margin. My accounts are at a standstill.

  4. Hi Nick.
    Can i just ask if generally last years excellent results were fairly consistent across the different months of the year and the Codes, Flat NH and AW ? Just curiosity really. Certainly been a tough baptism for me as a newbie, and others starting recently, although yours have been neutral whereas most others seem to have had a poor January. Saturday was my best day yet 🙂 Absolutely no complaints generally , patience and discipline will i know pay off over the year.

    1. Nick does his best tipping when there is a full moon!

      Peaks and troughs and annual profits. That is how it goes.

    2. Hi John

      I don’t have split for last year between the codes although the best months I had were during the summer partly because of the unchanging weather but also because bigger fields would have led to more tips. This is the split month by month:

      January 29.20
      February 30.00
      March 46.72
      April 33.95
      May 64.00
      June 88.67
      July -4.44
      August 93.56
      September 34.28
      October 76.69
      November 3.51
      December 36.19

      1. Nick, you had a losing month last year, please explain why you allowed this to happen and what you plan to do to rectify this in 2019. 🙂

  5. Tips:

    1.10 Leicester, Jen’s Boy, 8/1 for 1 point each way. Hendo and Nico team up here in a race of unexposed novices. OK run LTO. Gets 6LB from the previous winners in the field and the FAV is ridden by David Maxwell, which puts him at a disadvantage against pro’s.
    3.10 Leicester, Thounder, 7/1 for 1 point each way. The horse has not got round the last two runs but has winning form in novice races previously. The trainer is in form and does well at the course.

    Good luck.

  6. RTP and Geegeez are the best two sites on the net, I’ve found others wanting. One problem for greenhorns is information overload, a quick look at the stat horses on here can give at least 2 sometimes 3 alerts in the same race. Add in individual selections from others ( Colin and stewart regularly have two in a race) maybe geegeez stat of the day and you have the equivalent of the old tip sheets from the 60s/70s where basically every race has multiple selections.

    My advice would be to use this kipper time of season to analyse what suits your pocket and mentality. For some people betting more than two selections a day can be very daunting and the thought of following Nick (ew) Colin and Josh daily must be a white knuckle ride that would make a greenhorn look like one of those baby turtles running for cover of sea. Its important to develope your own style for investing, take on board other opinions on races you are interested in but being 100% solid in your own tactics is paramount.

    Above all keep it simple. The more stuff you add the more complicated it gets until one of your ploys would have given the winner, driving you crazy. Be wary of betting short prices, you are only playing into the books percentage and realise each way betting is a completely different market to the win market. REMEMBER 99% OF BETTORS LOSE MONEY and considering 100% on here cash in, you are probably one of the baby turtles.

    1. Green horns and baby turtles? Jeez.. do you realise how pretentious & condescending you sound? Would you prefer that we respond “Thank you oh wise Sensei” going forward? Do you actually have any empirical evidence to go along with this perceived wisdom? If you’re churning over 20% ROI and prepared to share then maybe I could stomach some of your cringe worthy sound bites. If not can I request a mute button on the new forum please Josh he’s making my eyes bleed.

      1. I’ve never muted/banned anyone from posting as yet James, and Chubnut is polite, and in amongst those elements I disagree with he does post plenty of sense and views I tend to nod along with – and I view such postings as a positive as makes us all think, and i tend not to be overly sensitive to some of the language.
        I assume Chubnut was inexperienced at some point but now does well enough. I focused on the ‘inexperienced’ definition of greenhorn, rather than the naive/gullible (but then i’ve ticked all those boxes before!)
        Baby Turtles – i’ll view as a compliment – not many of them make the cover the sea, but you’re more likely to here haha.
        Those points about information overload and having too many bets/sending you for cover/leading you to give up prematurely etc are valid points. I’ve suffered with that in the past, and may be doing so at the moment.

        1. I’m not advocating a ban Josh, I’m not that churlish, just a mute button ala Twitter might be a nice feature then members can choose who they want to listen to!

          I do agree with a lot of his point as well, but just find his use of language extremely condesending. You can choose to ignore it, but I think its quite derogatory to newer members on here and and potentially off putting to them to stop them contributing to the site? I’m really not sure why he’s given himself this elevated status, for my reckoning he’s done little on here to have the right to talk like a self claimed guru of all things betting.

    2. The current figure being touted is 97% and so 3% make a profit. However we are talking a lorra lorra people who bet and so 3% is likely to be a higher number of people than you imagine.

      1. LOL Walk into any bookmakers and tell me 97%. Last time I was in one a fella was telling his mate a horse was really unlucky in a chase last time out. I couldnt believe he was talking about a one of those virtual reality races

      2. Interesting Martin 5/6 years ago forced down the exchange route had a chat with betfair and they said that they had 4% winners so in a short period of time 25% has disappeared which is a lorra, lorra profit.
        By the way my eldest brother is an accountant and he is certainly one who watches the paint dry.
        Colin

  7. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT+5.61

    No bets today.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT +7.08

    Two seconds yesterday. Profitable range for system is up to 16 on betfair so roxyfet shouldn’t really have been a bet. So hard to predict though, was 13/2 last night – went off nearly 4 times that on betfair. Only surprise was it didn’t run too bad.

    1pt win 1.40 L – clondaw castle
    1pt win 3.40 L – forth bridge

    FWIW – I thought Epeius should give smugglers creek a run for his money in 7.45. Last 3 runs over C&D best described as suspicious, unlucky, solid form. Lucky lodge the winner of that last race has since nearly gone in again off 5 pound higher mark. The two pulled 4.5 lengths clear of the field. He made his challenge far side on the two previous C&D runs which I never think is ideal at the Toon. The near side golden highway is the place to be imo (middle to high draw).
    Guna nibble a reverse forecast just for a bit of fun.

    1. Sharp stuff Francis and good form reading. All I would add is be wary of front runners drawn far side, they seem to buck that near side bias.

  8. Thanks Chubnut, interesting that drawn low / front runner angle. I notice if you select 12 to 15 runners and 7f (not 6f), you get a similar result. Must be something in it.

    1. She was wonderful; she knew she’d got it wrong taking off a stride too soon and did all she could with her neck to lift MS back up. He was agile but she was strong.

  9. Good stuff Josh, it’s amazing how the stats and one’s perception can differ. This season Wayne H had become one to avoid for me. It all started at Bangor in the Autumn on one for Alan King, 8/1, coming to the last with the race won and he asked for a big one un-necessarily and put the horse on the floor, like Daryl Jacob with Might Bite at Kempton in the 2016 Kauto Star Novices. How the memories linger! Anyway, I shall put away my prejudices about Wayne for the time being. I’ve got a feeling though that he was very high in Matt’s jocks who fall off table.
    Hugh

    1. Dont forget there are a fair few jockeys coming through not on this list that are pushing this lot. It is useful info but dont forget the younger guys and girls coming through.

      1. I don’t think they are pushing that lot in terms of that table yet? They are the top 21 jockeys I think who are riding 47%+ of their mounts up to or past their timeform rating in the 18/19 season, assume since 1st May but I could be wrong. May be a minimum no. Rides also, not sure. Clearly likes of Rex Dingle doing well at moment. Test for them is how they develop over time /larger sample when claims are reduced etc. Then again many metrics you can use I suppose but that table is handy enough and I should probably study it more closely.

        1. Maybe, whilst I agree you want a good jockey aboard I dont see JJO JR, Bryony Frost doing much wrong. I do like what Harry Cobden is doing these days and the list shows that improvement.
          My eyes dont see Tom Scu getting worse? He rides a chaser lovely and can drive them out over hurdles as well.
          Again its my eyes, but the spreadsheet seems influenced by how well the trainer(s) they ride for are doing that season? That would not mean the jockey has necessary improved or regressed.
          Just my data analysis head having a pick at.

    2. YEP BRILLIANT JOSH AS ALWAYS …. he’s been on my radar for some time ….. especially on LH tracks (he must have a stronger left hand 🙂 )

      gl/gb 🙂

      1. haha. Well I assume that will be because he’s generally based in the North…not many RH tracks up north, certainly when excluding Scotland. May be linked to some of the trainers he rides for and what tracks they target etc. I can’t think there is a technical riding reason why he’d be better going one way or the other, but you never know, esp if able to get them onto X lead lead, and how he presents horses at fences say – but that may be a bit far fetched. When he does come south, and into more RH tracks, they are probably invariably higher class/more competitive races.

    3. Hi Hugh
      Always frustrating when you have backed them coming down at the last however on the other side of the coin years ago Hywel Davies for all us oldies was almost a fence clear at the last and he decided to slow down and pop the fence but the horse lost all momentum and fell if he had gone for it he would have won, who would be a jockey? cannot remember the course or horse but did i curse him at the time.
      Colin.

      1. Colin, do you remember that hurdle race when none of the jockeys wanted to make it? Warren Marston was on the hot favourite and when they got to the first hurdle they were going so slow that the horse dug its heels in and Warren popped over the hurdle without the horse. I think it may have been one of Richard Phillips’.
        Hugh

    4. I can recall Choc Thornton also featuring very prominently in that particular table Hugh, maybe it’s something to do with Alan King’s training methods?

  10. Just signed up to geegees gold today in the hope that in the not too far future I’ll be picking out my own winners more regularly. If any members on here have any tips on starting out on this journey then I’m all ears! I’m not necessarily new to horseracing but I am new at looking at picking my own winners! I’m aware there’s a few videos to watch what Matt B has done. Thanks in advance. Any comments welcome.

    1. I strongly advise you to watch them videos mate. They’ll tell you everything you need to know. They cover loads of different things. I’ve been a member around 12 months now and GeeGeez is superb. Great value for the money.

    2. Yes watch the videos and run a few reports. Have a go at a few races using the tools and see what you come up to. You can also email Matt with questions. There are also a few users on here to ask. Stat Of The Day is going well in the Tips section.

    3. Well Stan you’ve headed to the right spot if that’s your aim, and with some patience, and time, you’ll get there… picking your own winners out is the most satisfying after all.
      I few weeks back I recorded a ‘how I use geegeez gold’ promo when Matt did a big push i helped him on…

      you can watch that/read that post here >>> http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/10/02/geegeez-gold/

      In truth I clearly need to be better at using it myself, as I find myself in another slump on the ‘best of/daily’ front and much pondering there. The key could be to try and focus in on a handful of ‘ways in’ or starting points with gold. You can be overwhelmed initially. You could stick to all age handicaps for example, and ignore C5/6 on the flat/AW, or C5 over jumps. So, you could narrow down ‘race types’ to approach.

      Then you can focus on ways in… you could use the pace maps, and try and just focus on those prominent racers/front runners, before further analysis. You could just the ‘instant expert’ and be very disciplined and wait for those that just leap out. Or you could use ‘trainer form’ icons within the race cards, or the report icons/stats drop downs, or whatever.

      From there you could then say you’re analysing the horse, having found a ‘way in’ – and there’s two sides to the punting coin… with shades of grey in the middle… you can stick with exposed handicappers, who are coming back down the ratings having not raced in ideal conditions, but today they do – (instant expert likely to highlight those), or you could focus on unexposed horses, those who have yet to show their full hand to the handicapper, and trying to work out why they may ‘improve’ for today – what are they doing different etc.
      I’m trying to become better at using ‘hot form’ and the ‘then what’ features, as I think they are important, for whatever pool of horses you focus on.

      Of course that’s just an example, you have horses with profiles in between those two extremes, but most races are won by unexposed horses I think, but of course you get plenty of lower grade races with exposed handicappers just running up against each other, and it’s who is well handicapped and best fits conditions on the day. Skelton’s handicap chase winner at Warwick would be an example of one who’s experienced, but still unexposed, and he hacked up again , having been 3/4 chasing before today etc.

      Then you of course have all the stats reports etc, you could focus on those as a ‘way in’ , or pick your fav, or you can just flick through the cards each day, with eyes focused on ‘x’ starting point as above.

      Less is more I think, initially, and trying to be focused on quality over quantity, as there will be times you lose faith and have to get through them! Of course I say all of the above not in great form myself, and in truth not having found a systematic way with my tipping etc, mentally or in practice, to use those tools + my content to best effect. Well, it doesn’t feel like it at the moment! But it will all click again. I should probably focus in on some of my own musings above! You can try and do too much and over think as well, and honing your instinct is important.
      I know there are a few gold subscribers on these pages and a few will have their own methods no doubt, but those are some ideas.

      Josh

      1. Thanks for the comments guys. I watched the first lengthy video last night. The second one tonight… Then once I’ve watched them all and had a good look around the website and had a play with the different tools on there I’ll pick a couple of races each day and see how I go on for a few weeks see if I get pick anything decent out. Would you say there’s any races indefinitely don’t want to be touching? Obviously I won’t be looking at races with 2/3yo handicaps as there’s not much form to look at and too many unknowns. I’m also wondering whether to look at both NH and AW or just stick to one at the minute to save time. Cheers again.

        1. I would specialise and it depends on what you enjoy etc. I can see the appeal of AW betting because of the constants involved. I don’t have enough mental capacity to look at that and jumps, but it’s up to you. I’d try and pick one, unless you pick a handful of race types in each – but i’d generally be focusing on all age handicaps personally. But, like Tim and his focus on novice/maidens, you can do either, but I think it’s important to try and specialise.

        2. I would take a look at NH handicaps with 10-14 runners. You will get some exposed horses running and be certain of 3 places after some non runners coming out. Avoid novice races for now or full stop really.

          1. Cheers guys yes I think I’ll stick with NH handicaps for now with more than 10 runners. I’ll be looking for value and I’ll be looking to make a profit from ew betting.

  11. Well I seem be stuck in neutral this month but I guess break even is better than being down:

    Mudawwan Newcastle 19:15 1pt e/w 10/1
    Smugglers Creek Newcastle 19:45 1pt e/w 8/1

    1. Doing well to be level this month, I would say. I half follow several well-established ‘pro’ tipsters and they are almost all in negative territory this month, some by a big margin. My accounts are at a standstill.

  12. Hi Nick.
    Can i just ask if generally last years excellent results were fairly consistent across the different months of the year and the Codes, Flat NH and AW ? Just curiosity really. Certainly been a tough baptism for me as a newbie, and others starting recently, although yours have been neutral whereas most others seem to have had a poor January. Saturday was my best day yet 🙂 Absolutely no complaints generally , patience and discipline will i know pay off over the year.

    1. Nick does his best tipping when there is a full moon!

      Peaks and troughs and annual profits. That is how it goes.

    2. Hi John

      I don’t have split for last year between the codes although the best months I had were during the summer partly because of the unchanging weather but also because bigger fields would have led to more tips. This is the split month by month:

      January 29.20
      February 30.00
      March 46.72
      April 33.95
      May 64.00
      June 88.67
      July -4.44
      August 93.56
      September 34.28
      October 76.69
      November 3.51
      December 36.19

      1. Nick, you had a losing month last year, please explain why you allowed this to happen and what you plan to do to rectify this in 2019. 🙂

  13. Tips:

    1.10 Leicester, Jen’s Boy, 8/1 for 1 point each way. Hendo and Nico team up here in a race of unexposed novices. OK run LTO. Gets 6LB from the previous winners in the field and the FAV is ridden by David Maxwell, which puts him at a disadvantage against pro’s.
    3.10 Leicester, Thounder, 7/1 for 1 point each way. The horse has not got round the last two runs but has winning form in novice races previously. The trainer is in form and does well at the course.

    Good luck.

  14. RTP and Geegeez are the best two sites on the net, I’ve found others wanting. One problem for greenhorns is information overload, a quick look at the stat horses on here can give at least 2 sometimes 3 alerts in the same race. Add in individual selections from others ( Colin and stewart regularly have two in a race) maybe geegeez stat of the day and you have the equivalent of the old tip sheets from the 60s/70s where basically every race has multiple selections.

    My advice would be to use this kipper time of season to analyse what suits your pocket and mentality. For some people betting more than two selections a day can be very daunting and the thought of following Nick (ew) Colin and Josh daily must be a white knuckle ride that would make a greenhorn look like one of those baby turtles running for cover of sea. Its important to develope your own style for investing, take on board other opinions on races you are interested in but being 100% solid in your own tactics is paramount.

    Above all keep it simple. The more stuff you add the more complicated it gets until one of your ploys would have given the winner, driving you crazy. Be wary of betting short prices, you are only playing into the books percentage and realise each way betting is a completely different market to the win market. REMEMBER 99% OF BETTORS LOSE MONEY and considering 100% on here cash in, you are probably one of the baby turtles.

    1. The current figure being touted is 97% and so 3% make a profit. However we are talking a lorra lorra people who bet and so 3% is likely to be a higher number of people than you imagine.

      1. LOL Walk into any bookmakers and tell me 97%. Last time I was in one a fella was telling his mate a horse was really unlucky in a chase last time out. I couldnt believe he was talking about a one of those virtual reality races

        1. I was talking across all mediums not just betting shops. The internet is very popular these days amongst those who can still get on or those of us who use exchanges. Randomness without someone having much skill would likely give you 3% per cent success anyway over an extended period.
          When I was trading stocks and currencies and I spoke with traders in pubs and restaurants they use to say that a number of them had got lucky over a number of years and had no special expertise.
          I would not be surprised if the actual figure of successful punters was higher than 3%, however over 10 years plus??????

      2. Interesting Martin 5/6 years ago forced down the exchange route had a chat with betfair and they said that they had 4% winners so in a short period of time 25% has disappeared which is a lorra, lorra profit.
        By the way my eldest brother is an accountant and he is certainly one who watches the paint dry.
        Colin

    2. Green horns and baby turtles? Jeez.. do you realise how pretentious & condescending you sound? Would you prefer that we respond “Thank you oh wise Sensei” going forward? Do you actually have any empirical evidence to go along with this perceived wisdom? If you’re churning over 20% ROI and prepared to share then maybe I could stomach some of your cringe worthy sound bites. If not can I request a mute button on the new forum please Josh he’s making my eyes bleed.

      1. I’ve never muted/banned anyone from posting as yet James, and Chubnut is polite, and in amongst those elements I disagree with he does post plenty of sense and views I tend to nod along with – and I view such postings as a positive as makes us all think, and i tend not to be overly sensitive to some of the language.
        I assume Chubnut was inexperienced at some point but now does well enough. I focused on the ‘inexperienced’ definition of greenhorn, rather than the naive/gullible (but then i’ve ticked all those boxes before!)
        Baby Turtles – i’ll view as a compliment – not many of them make the cover the sea, but you’re more likely to here haha.
        Those points about information overload and having too many bets/sending you for cover/leading you to give up prematurely etc are valid points. I’ve suffered with that in the past, and may be doing so at the moment.

        1. I’m not advocating a ban Josh, I’m not that churlish, just a mute button ala Twitter might be a nice feature then members can choose who they want to listen to!

          I do agree with a lot of his point as well, but just find his use of language extremely condesending. You can choose to ignore it, but I think its quite derogatory to newer members on here and and potentially off putting to them to stop them contributing to the site? I’m really not sure why he’s given himself this elevated status, for my reckoning he’s done little on here to have the right to talk like a self claimed guru of all things betting.

          1. Chubnut tends to vent at a certain time of the evening when he may have had a nightcap or two? he does make some valid points in a style that is a provocation to debate. You can always pass by his input but I am generally happy to engage.

          2. As a greenhorn / baby turtle I feel compelled to say I want more chubnut. Well, maybe not more, but certainly not less.

          3. I am an arrogant bastard, especially as Martin shrewdly deduced, after a few glasses of the chateau and I apologise to anyone who has been riled by my comments. I’ve done my share of losing at this game and been in some dark places years ago that I would hate anyone to visit. Those new to this game should be constantly warned of the endless pitfalls awaiting them if they drop their guard.

  15. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT+5.61

    No bets today.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT +7.08

    Two seconds yesterday. Profitable range for system is up to 16 on betfair so roxyfet shouldn’t really have been a bet. So hard to predict though, was 13/2 last night – went off nearly 4 times that on betfair. Only surprise was it didn’t run too bad.

    1pt win 1.40 L – clondaw castle
    1pt win 3.40 L – forth bridge

    FWIW – I thought Epeius should give smugglers creek a run for his money in 7.45. Last 3 runs over C&D best described as suspicious, unlucky, solid form. Lucky lodge the winner of that last race has since nearly gone in again off 5 pound higher mark. The two pulled 4.5 lengths clear of the field. He made his challenge far side on the two previous C&D runs which I never think is ideal at the Toon. The near side golden highway is the place to be imo (middle to high draw).
    Guna nibble a reverse forecast just for a bit of fun.

    1. Sharp stuff Francis and good form reading. All I would add is be wary of front runners drawn far side, they seem to buck that near side bias.

  16. Thanks Chubnut, interesting that drawn low / front runner angle. I notice if you select 12 to 15 runners and 7f (not 6f), you get a similar result. Must be something in it.

  17. 14.55 Kelso : FULLY BOOKED
    Trainer does well with this type of horse at this time of the year
    e/w & 4tbp for me
    trainer has had 1 runner in last 7 days and that one won 🙂
    (NORTHERN SOUL same race looks like a saver for me against the front 2 as well 🙂 )
    gl/gb 🙂

    1. 16.10 Newc RED TORNADO 28/1 another e/w 4tbp for me here
      outsider of the lot but expecting plunge later
      trainer in form jockey in form …… we shall see 🙂
      gl/gb 🙂

  18. today’s selections both at Leicester.
    3-10. Global Thrill 14-1 1/2 pt ew
    4-15. Tara Well 10-1 sky 4 places 1/2 pt ew

    1. can’t for the life of me work out the massive drift on Global Thrill came in to 9,s now out to 33,s, only 1lb higher than last winning mark with a 7lb claimer on board. won a class 3 over very similar distance and going last May had a pipe opener in December again in a class 3 drops to a class 4. not exactly the hottest race must admit i’m dumbfounded unless the yard have a virus or something i know nothing about. sticking to my guns still fancy it and have had an extra couple of quid ew @33’s

  19. This is not a plug/ad, but for those joining Geegeez, you should…
    1. Read the User guide
    2. Watch the videos/tutorials
    3. Take a look at the Gold Playbook
    4. Ask questions if something isn’t clear.

    Geegeez isn’t a tipping website, it doesn’t really have an active forum either (the message board here is busier), it is predominantly a toolbox designed to help you find your own bets.

    I do, however, offer one stat-based selection per day, 6 days a week as the Stat of the Day, but that’s pretty much it from a tipping perspective.

  20. Mon Port 9/1 – 1:10 Leicester

    Murphy is 4/9 at Leicester, 2/2 with Coleman at the track, both in class 4 hurdles. Split horses now rated 134 & 131 in a bumper. Easy winner of a maiden hurdle on first start for Olly Murphy, but not so good next 2 starts. Has been freshened up, wind-op & hood goes on + up in trip.

  21. COLINS BETS
    No bet

    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    Again very no bet on either service still if they are not there cannot put up
    Colin

  22. Hi all, my three for today.
    All shorties, but they are in my tracker!!!

    LEICESTER 15:40 LARRY 2.37 BOG
    KELSO 15:55 GLENDUFF 3.25 BOG
    LEICESTER 16:15 SHINE BABY SHINE 4.0 BOG

    1Pt win
    G.L. SOLENT

  23. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    L 1.40 – Burbank on 3rd run @ 10/11
    L 3.40 – Forth Bridge on 4th run @ 11/4
    AW
    N 6.15 – Primos Comet on 4th run @ 9/2
    Festival
    AW
    N 5.15 – Gallipoli 0n 5th run @ 6
    GL

  24. I’m with Colin today mainly because the novices events over jumps are so poor today with the markets clearly defining those with and those without chances on paper for all to see.

    Toyed with the idea of putting up Mustadun in the 6.45 N/c up but the sire is not noted for precocity with only 1 win from 20 (AW) debutantes. So I guess waiting it out is the better option rather than trying to construct a decent bet.

    I’m gonna take the day off and maybe watch some of your bets run later.

  25. Nothing from me today over the jumps so what follows is not a thread bet.

    In the light of Francis and Chubnut’s ponderings over pace and draw at Newcastle I was led to Bowson Fred in the 5f sprint at 6.15. He is drawn well for pace, likes to lead and appears to be the only one in the race who does. Down in class, has won off higher marks and raced at Southwell last time where he has never won.
    The main danger appears to be Royal Prospect who is only 4 and has raced prominently, if he shadows Bowson Fred in the lead he may have the legs to do him. None of the others seem to like to go on. Win bet Bowson Fred. Reverse forecast Bowson Fred and Royal Prospect.
    Hugh

    1. You seem to be going well at the moment with your selections over the jumps Hugh. Perhaps you have found a new career?

  26. That 6.15 race could be decent for a Class 4 contest, but looks really tough to call. If I had to have a bet on it, I’d probably back Foxy Forever, who looks too long at 11/2.

  27. FAO George B, any views on the Ivory runners at Newcastle? I think Tropics is the one and Lucymai gone for the ride in the horsebox:-)

  28. 14.55 Kelso : FULLY BOOKED
    Trainer does well with this type of horse at this time of the year
    e/w & 4tbp for me
    trainer has had 1 runner in last 7 days and that one won 🙂
    (NORTHERN SOUL same race looks like a saver for me against the front 2 as well 🙂 )
    gl/gb 🙂

    1. 16.10 Newc RED TORNADO 28/1 another e/w 4tbp for me here
      outsider of the lot but expecting plunge later
      trainer in form jockey in form …… we shall see 🙂
      gl/gb 🙂

    1. can’t for the life of me work out the massive drift on Global Thrill came in to 9,s now out to 33,s, only 1lb higher than last winning mark with a 7lb claimer on board. won a class 3 over very similar distance and going last May had a pipe opener in December again in a class 3 drops to a class 4. not exactly the hottest race must admit i’m dumbfounded unless the yard have a virus or something i know nothing about. sticking to my guns still fancy it and have had an extra couple of quid ew @33’s

  29. This is not a plug/ad, but for those joining Geegeez, you should…
    1. Read the User guide
    2. Watch the videos/tutorials
    3. Take a look at the Gold Playbook
    4. Ask questions if something isn’t clear.

    Geegeez isn’t a tipping website, it doesn’t really have an active forum either (the message board here is busier), it is predominantly a toolbox designed to help you find your own bets.

    I do, however, offer one stat-based selection per day, 6 days a week as the Stat of the Day, but that’s pretty much it from a tipping perspective.

  30. Hi Josh, or anyone 🙂 Actually watched part of the ‘How i use Geegeez’ from Josh but now just cant find the link on any of last few days. Either it is no longer there. or – much more likely – i am suffering from Myopia or Football Referee Syndrome! Thanks

  31. Mon Port 9/1 – 1:10 Leicester

    Murphy is 4/9 at Leicester, 2/2 with Coleman at the track, both in class 4 hurdles. Split horses now rated 134 & 131 in a bumper. Easy winner of a maiden hurdle on first start for Olly Murphy, but not so good next 2 starts. Has been freshened up, wind-op & hood goes on + up in trip.

  32. COLINS BETS
    No bet

    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    Again very no bet on either service still if they are not there cannot put up
    Colin

  33. Hi all, my three for today.
    All shorties, but they are in my tracker!!!

    LEICESTER 15:40 LARRY 2.37 BOG
    KELSO 15:55 GLENDUFF 3.25 BOG
    LEICESTER 16:15 SHINE BABY SHINE 4.0 BOG

    1Pt win
    G.L. SOLENT

  34. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    L 1.40 – Burbank on 3rd run @ 10/11
    L 3.40 – Forth Bridge on 4th run @ 11/4
    AW
    N 6.15 – Primos Comet on 4th run @ 9/2
    Festival
    AW
    N 5.15 – Gallipoli 0n 5th run @ 6
    GL

  35. I’m with Colin today mainly because the novices events over jumps are so poor today with the markets clearly defining those with and those without chances on paper for all to see.

    Toyed with the idea of putting up Mustadun in the 6.45 N/c up but the sire is not noted for precocity with only 1 win from 20 (AW) debutantes. So I guess waiting it out is the better option rather than trying to construct a decent bet.

    I’m gonna take the day off and maybe watch some of your bets run later.

  36. Nothing from me today over the jumps so what follows is not a thread bet.

    In the light of Francis and Chubnut’s ponderings over pace and draw at Newcastle I was led to Bowson Fred in the 5f sprint at 6.15. He is drawn well for pace, likes to lead and appears to be the only one in the race who does. Down in class, has won off higher marks and raced at Southwell last time where he has never won.
    The main danger appears to be Royal Prospect who is only 4 and has raced prominently, if he shadows Bowson Fred in the lead he may have the legs to do him. None of the others seem to like to go on. Win bet Bowson Fred. Reverse forecast Bowson Fred and Royal Prospect.
    Hugh

    1. You seem to be going well at the moment with your selections over the jumps Hugh. Perhaps you have found a new career?

  37. That 6.15 race could be decent for a Class 4 contest, but looks really tough to call. If I had to have a bet on it, I’d probably back Foxy Forever, who looks too long at 11/2.

    1. Many positives for Foxy Forever Class 4
      Won a Class 3 with Franny Norton and ran 2nd last time in a Class 2, and won 3 Class 4s in the past.
      Negative 9yo and trainer Michel Wigham who certainly knows how to get them ready when required sadly hard for us to know when!
      Will watch the betting market nearer the time of the race before making a decision on backing it.
      Colin

      1. Glad to have started a debate. I think it is something like 28 runs since Bowson Fred got his head in front!
        Hugh

        1. You would have to question why Evans isn’t on given he is at the track and without a ride in the race.

  38. Cracking S2A winner with Lara Trot in the 1615 at 28.0 BSP, Josh. Very nice surprise when I looked in my Betfair account.

  39. Masive winner for S2A and the first winner of the year with Lara Trot winning narrowly, BSP payed 28.0! Brilliant

  40. FAO George B, any views on the Ivory runners at Newcastle? I think Tropics is the one and Lucymai gone for the ride in the horsebox:-)

    1. HA HA ….well weirdly i was thinking the other way round ( owners horse going up to do the business and i think tropics is ivory’s own horse ??) ….. trouble is what you least think is right normally happens with the ivory team . It does seem a long way to go ??? i have just done a small e/w double and singles on the 2 … just going to see what happens on this first attempt at newcastle .

      gl/gb 🙂

      1. I’m in! I’d advise a saver in Tropics race on Outrage, quite bullish trainer comments on the Lambourn website. Good luck anyway!

  41. Brilliant result – thank goodness i hung on in there keeping faith from start up in December – albeit small stakes ! Well done Josh. E/W and v please/ surprised when opening up BF Account.

  42. Hi Josh, or anyone 🙂 Actually watched part of the ‘How i use Geegeez’ from Josh but now just cant find the link on any of last few days. Either it is no longer there. or – much more likely – i am suffering from Myopia or Football Referee Syndrome! Thanks

  43. Cracking S2A winner with Lara Trot in the 1615 at 28.0 BSP, Josh. Very nice surprise when I looked in my Betfair account.

    1. They usually are a nice surprise Steven haha – they work long term, and if you’ve the bank/mental strength to get through the horror runs, come calendar year end the account should look just fine with those. EW or BFSP/Betfair Place, does ensure you get a return more often than just win only, and they did need that after a usual losing run for them.

    1. Nice winner but when I tested the free trial these guys were giving out several bets a day. Hard to believe it’s the first winner of the year. Are they back in profit?

    2. Yep I think that is the first S2A winner of 2019 for those, wiping out most/all of the deficit I think! If not a tiny bit of profit now for 1 point EW.

  44. Brilliant result – thank goodness i hung on in there keeping faith from start up in December – albeit small stakes ! Well done Josh. E/W and v please/ surprised when opening up BF Account.

    1. S2A…. SP2A???? I think my brain’s cooked! Either way that should give Josh a reason to feel better cos I get the feeling he’s been on a bit of a downer of late. Certainly give the totals a nice boost. Well done!

      1. Hi Tim… to clarify.. yes S2A is strategy S2A in section 1 … the black bold S2A next to that winners name, as you can see in section 1 above. That is any section 1 stats qualifier that is simply 16/1-25/1 on the morning of racing when I update the prices, usually around 8am on the day, to ensure consistency with my results/and any followers, across the board. Clearly those who bet the evening before can bet when they want if section 1 horse is in that price range, or wait for my official morning update.
        It works to win only well enough to BFSP…but a bloody bumpy ride, and not for everyone, but much better EW… 1 point EW last year on those qualifiers was +100 points to morning prices. They were on a losing run of -20-25 or so I think. Not for the feint hearted, but they’ve worked for 12months+ now.

        Different from SP2A which is a separate tipping service that I DO NOT run but where i set up 3x 3 month money back offers with the owner back in Oct 2017, and many of my members joined… they have had a horrible 6-8 months from around June time, some recent green shoots, but as with any other service that I promote, that isn’t mine, i’ll never shut down discussion about them on these pages, albeit prefer any discussion about other services to take place on the free post comments, or with me in private.

        My own tipping is either sublime, or mostly shite – i’ve spent a fair bit of the afternoon looking back over all the winning ‘best of’ stats tips since I started with that idea, and will be sharing some thoughts asap in tomorrow’s post. The big race double on saturday lifted my mood but I need to be doing better.

        Hope that’s all clear!
        Josh

        1. I realised my mistake the moment Steve pointed it out to me Josh. I took the free trial with SP2A when I first signed up on here on a free trial basis, so it must have been a couple of years ago now. the free trial didn’t work out for me as the profits were mainly generated by earlies and BOG’s. I couldn’t make it fit at BFSP, so didn’t sign up for the paid service but feel for those that were there for the bad times.

          I stayed on here as a paid up member so you must be doing something right Josh, although I’m unable to profit from any of the tips or strategies put up on here that are dependent upon getting in early or BOG offers but I’m not complaining.

          Maybe it’s the satirical wit and repartee along with the friendly banter that keeps me hanging around. 🙂

          1. yep… well over time my big race tips do well enough to BFSP, but yep doubt the rest will… strategy wise… well S1 and S2A both do best to BFSP , esp when 1 point win… S1 +76 in 2018, S2A +58 , so they tick along, with the usual losing runs etc.

        2. Josh
          Best of the stats have a feeling that they were performing better when you were putting up the shorter priced ones that is only my gut feeling but worth a check.
          Colin

          1. your instinct would be correct Colin, all of them 10/1< on morning odds, and majority in the 5/2 > 7/1 range. I was more interested in the profile of such winners and nearly every one has common features etc. In short, UNEXPOSED!!!! 🙂

          2. I think you hit the nail on the head there Josh when you said UNEXPOSED. A lot of punters don’t like backing anything that is untested at the distance on the ground etc,etc, so as long as you factor it in to your price, (steer clear of the shorties), there are bargains to be had. Also….. when you are playing the lesser grades it’s worth bearing in mind that most of these horses will be running their best races in their early career, once they peak it’s downhill from there on, especially on the flat. Finding a horse with potential is always best done before everyone else gets on to it cos once it’s recorded in a million billion trackers the chances of finding any value next time out is almost zero.

            TBH I missed out on your extraordinary form early in the season and have been following without betting ever since. Big field handicaps aren’t really my bag either, and would struggle to carry out the analysis particularly during the summer when there’s so much racing. I barely manage to cover the races I do at the moment and the fields are generally much smaller.

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