Members Daily Post: 20/01/19 (tipsx4/complete)

Tips x4, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Ayr

2.30 –

Ash Park   (micro TJC) 12/1 S2 UP

Pretty Miss Mahler   (all Hc’s)  w1 11/1 S2 UP

3.05 –

Pookie Pecan   (m TJC) H3 I1 11/2 UP

Bulls Head   (all Hc’s) 18/1 S2A UP

3.40 –

So Satisfied   (HcH) 7/1 UP

Chocolat Noir   (all Hc’s) H3 I3 13/2  UP

4.10 –

Amberose   (m runs) 14,30 3/1 2nd 8/1 

Just Brooke   (m Hcdeb) 16/1 S2A UP

Side of the Road   (HcH) 18/1 S2A UP 13/2 

Fairlee Grace   (HcH) 25/1 S2A UP

 

Exeter

None

 

Bonus Irish

Thurles – 1.35 – Smiling Eliza   (HcH) 16/1 S2A UP (3rd, DQ, placed 4th) 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -3 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 1/3,2p, +5)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/141,65p, +13.8, 1 point win)

1.35 T – Smiling Eliza – 12/1 (gen) UP

3.05 A – Pookie Pekan – 5/1 (bet365/BV) 9/2 (gen) UP

3.40 A – Valkenburg – 6/1 (gen) 3rd 9/1

4.10 A – Side of The Road – 18/1 (gen) UP 13/2, always disappointing when they are well backed and run like that, having tanked through it until turning for home. Awful day, poor run with these goes on.

that’s all, 10.09, write ups…

Smiling Eliza…maybe i’ve been a bit too bullish today after finally remembering how to read big handicap chases yesterday. A welcome big race double but given my awful recent form it’s nothing to cheer just yet. Anyway, onto this mare… I thought 12s may be a bit too big here and she’s unexposed in handicaps. A few starts back on her handicap debut she ran a solid 2nd at Perth off 120. She races off 114 here and that race has produced a few subsequent winners and I don’t think it looks much weaker than this one on paper. She dotted up in a juvenile hurdle after that albeit a weak enough race as nothing has come out of it since. She was then highly tried to my eyes, in hotter races than this I think.  She didn’t run too well LTO but wasn’t expected to at 33s up against some potential decent horses of the future. The fact she returns 8 days later here suggests there wasn’t a problem. She’s back into a weak handicap here, the yard are starting to bang in the winners again, CP are on, she races prominently and has nothing on her back. Two near the top of the market look exposed enough to my eyes and are vulnerable to anything with more in hand/younger legs. Jessie Harrington’s is in the could be anything category, and could be the main danger. I thought this looked winnable on her preferred ground. She may have just raced a few too many times now and needs a break but at these odds I’ll have a go. She has guts and tries hard, and that can count for plenty at this level.

Pookie Pekan… I thought he could still be a point too big here and I wouldn’t have him bigger than the current market leader. To my eyes the race does appear to be between those two I think. I think this one looks like a stronger stayer than the fav, who does have to prove he will fully see this trip out. PP is in form, consistent and will appreciate this more galloping track. He’s still unexposed over fences and ran well LTO, splitting two 120+ horses. The winner there looks ultra progressive and a 130s+ horse, but he had a 120 LTO winner in behind him. Solid form.  He usually tracks the pace over this trip and he should be in the right spot. I think there’s more to come from him over fences and I should get a run for my money. I hope that he may just have more class than the fav, as well as seeing out the trip better.

Valkenburg… I was a tad on the fence as to whether 6s was big enough but have decided to go with him. He’s unexposed in handicaps, moves up in trip again and the yard are in red hot form. Hughes is also back on. He ran a strange race over 21f around here LTO, visibly outpaced down the back straight, but staying on strongly after the last. It was a run which suggested he was worth a go over this trip as it could unlock improvement. That’s the hope anyway. It felt an open enough race and given his unexposed profile I thought he looked interesting.

Side of The Road… a proper poke here but given this is a target track for the yard’s handicap hurdles, and her unexposed profile, I couldn’t resist a nibble in what looks a very mediocre race to my eyes. She ran ‘ok’ LTO I thought, having been outpaced before plugging on. The top 4 there are decent enough for the grade and a few have won/run well since. She takes a slight move up in trip here and returns to a more galloping track. I’m not sure Sedgefield suited her as she does look a big galloping sort. It’s not impossible that she may improve for a return to better ground, although this could be that sticky/hard work sort of ‘good to soft’ as it can often be at this time of year. She’s clearly taken time to develop I think but this race looked winnable. It could be she just isn’t any good but her mark keeps falling and the yard are in decent form. They do like firing in the odd decent priced handicap hurdle winner here, and hopefully this may be another one. Amberose is in the ‘could be anything’ category but I didn’t think 3s was a good price. It wouldn’t surprise me if he showed himself to have a bit in hand now handicapping though. Norther Girl for the in form Kirby team may run well but is now 0/14,1p, and she looks like going off fav if the money continues. But that shows you how weak this is on paper I think. We shall see.

Best of luck.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D Pipe PU (14/1< guide, 11/1< best)

3.25 Exet – Aurillac 14/1

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.05 A – Hills of Dubai 5/1

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.30 Exet – Hurricane Harvey 9/2

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Trainers to Follow 

3.40 A – Valkenburg (11/1< guide) 13/2

Jockeys/Chasers

3.15 Thurles- Teachers Pet (16/1<) 6/1

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

2.00 A – Reivers Lad 5/2

3.05 A – Leskinfere 9/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

42 Responses

  1. Tips:
    2,30 Ayr, Kings Eclipse, 9/2 x 2 points. Won a class 2 LTO comfortably and stayed on. The horse has had only 6 runs over fences and so can still improve and looks value at the price.
    I cannot at this stage find any other value on Sunday.

  2. Putting in an early bid for the most pointless thread of the year award. 20+ bets, 1 point profit. Still, could be worse.

    HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT+1.11

    3.05 Ayr – Fiddlers Bow

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT +0.08

    1pt win 1.10 E – Trans Express
    1pt win 2.30 A – Geronimo
    1pt win 3.25 E – Samuel Jackson

    Will settle to 10am prices.

  3. Tips:
    2,30 Ayr, Kings Eclipse, 9/2 x 2 points. Won a class 2 LTO comfortably and stayed on. The horse has had only 6 runs over fences and so can still improve and looks value at the price.
    I cannot at this stage find any other value on Sunday.

  4. Putting in an early bid for the most pointless thread of the year award. 20+ bets, 1 point profit. Still, could be worse.

    HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT+1.11

    3.05 Ayr – Fiddlers Bow

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT +0.08

    1pt win 1.10 E – Trans Express
    1pt win 2.30 A – Geronimo
    1pt win 3.25 E – Samuel Jackson

    Will settle to 10am prices.

  5. Despite putting up 7 possibilities only 3 made the cut so minimal damage from a win less day. I had 4 bets cos 20.0 was a ridiculous price about Champagne Wells only to see it backed into 9.54 BFSP. This is an excellent example of how volatile the market can be with respect to some of these bets as I ended up taking 20.0 for it ten minutes before the race (couldn’t resist it), that didn’t make the 10.0 minimum BSFP recommendation and went on to come 2nd to the fav’ in a photo finish.

    Personally I don’t believe you should take them at any price. The ones that get backed in do perform marginally better than the ones that don’t but it is reflected in the price. Last time I did a check on this from memory taking them at any odds added an extra +14 pts but that was from about 270 extra bets. So allowing for the B/f commission you are left with peanuts, if anything, for your trouble.

    Every horse has to have a price where any value becomes lost because that’s the nature of the game and the reason as to why so many tipsters lose money.

    Back about 12.00 with today’s.

    1. ‘Every horse or team or person has a price’ is the most important thing to understand in betting. Once you can figure out what value is you are a fair way down the road.

  6. Hi all. My three for today

    AYR 14:50 TEDDY TEE @ 7.0 BOG
    AYR 15:05 LESKINFERE @ 8.5 BOG
    AYR 16:10 NORTHERN GIRL @ 5.0 BOG

    All 1 Pt win

    G.L. SOLENT

  7. can’t find anything i would put a proper bet on, might have small ew on Copperhead E1-10 if it drifts a bit and i have had a couple of quid ew on Black Narcissus @ 25-1 E4-00 apart from that i think everything else i like the look of has been covered already.

  8. 3 possibilities today….

    Thur’ 1.00 Cool Saint……….. 5.0
    Ayr 1.25 Pieceoftheaction. 9.0
    Thur’ 2.40 Ellie Mac………… 8.0

  9. Might Bite
    Has had a operation the other day regarding his breathing lets hope that the nutter can make a full recovery and show his quality on the racecourse once again.
    Colin

  10. Looking forward to the 2.30 here with no less than 3 RTP runners in a 12 horse field. We’ve got Teddy Tee by Solent which I think looks interesting. Martin C’s gone for King’s Eclipse, whilst the maestro’s on Nakadam.

    I’ve not got a penny on, so is one to just sit back and enjoy!

  11. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 3.40 – Sevenballs of Fire on 3rd run @ 50
    A 4.10 – Side of the Road on 3rd run @ 18
    3m
    A 2.30 – Lowanbehold on 3rd run @ 33
    GL

  12. Despite putting up 7 possibilities only 3 made the cut so minimal damage from a win less day. I had 4 bets cos 20.0 was a ridiculous price about Champagne Wells only to see it backed into 9.54 BFSP. This is an excellent example of how volatile the market can be with respect to some of these bets as I ended up taking 20.0 for it ten minutes before the race (couldn’t resist it), that didn’t make the 10.0 minimum BSFP recommendation and went on to come 2nd to the fav’ in a photo finish.

    Personally I don’t believe you should take them at any price. The ones that get backed in do perform marginally better than the ones that don’t but it is reflected in the price. Last time I did a check on this from memory taking them at any odds added an extra +14 pts but that was from about 270 extra bets. So allowing for the B/f commission you are left with peanuts, if anything, for your trouble.

    Every horse has to have a price where any value becomes lost because that’s the nature of the game and the reason as to why so many tipsters lose money.

    Back about 12.00 with today’s.

    1. ‘Every horse or team or person has a price’ is the most important thing to understand in betting. Once you can figure out what value is you are a fair way down the road.

      1. Yes indeed Martin. I doubt there is much else in this beautiful sport that causes more arguments and conflict than what constitutes ‘Value’. It s all credit to Josh and folk on here who can extract Value for their various selections. Oh that it was as easy as judging odds available on the proverbial ‘toss of a coin’ hey 🙂 Still amazes me that relatively high number of ‘punters’ are obsessed with ‘finding the Winner’ rather than what the value is. I seem to recall Clive Holt (who remembers Fineform?) who said its not a case of ‘Finding the Winner of a Race’ (ie any race) but moreover finding out ‘IF there is a Winner in a race’, by which he meant – at better odds available than its true odds. 🙂

        1. John U wrote:- its not a case of ‘Finding the Winner of a Race’ (ie any race) but moreover finding out ‘IF there is a Winner in a race’, by which he meant – at better odds available than its true odds.

          Sound words…… and the very reason as to why those on here with a good eye for value can play the early markets and make a profit at the expense of the bookies. What do the bookies do in response? They remove the value by adjusting the market such that late players make a loss backing exactly the same horses.

        2. Clive Holt still use his simple logic from the early 1970s which is so relevant today
          Class, Progressive, Distance, going as it won in the same class as todays race, this is very important for if i recall out of all horses registered only 20 to 25% actually win a race, and i think it is closer to 20%
          Thanks John for reminding me of Clive Holt.
          Colin.

          1. Interesting comments Tim and Colin. I read his books and was fascinated by his life story and how very careful/sensible he was with his staking (he varied it in relation to Price available on a horse he considered value) and always had a good big bank and didnt take risks. Always remember his ‘Maximum rated selections’ from his formula whereby just backing each and everyone NH and Flat meant a decent ROI for years, but then the dear old Bookies seemed to factor this in and prices dropped and profits dwindled. I have to admit to being a mug punter in my youth and i found him rather a ‘cult figure-, but the saddest thing for me was how his adverts and he himself just seemed to ‘disappear’ very suddenly one day and despite at the time searching on line and asking around i never found out to this day whether he simply ‘retired’ or whether he had passed away. Would be interested to know what happened if anyone – Colin maybe ? – knows the answer to that.

          2. John
            He retired and then he passed away his family did not continue his business, not sure where he lived but Wetherby was his local course.
            Have the T shirt for being a mug in my younger days long time ago and wonder where i had the idea of a Bank from!!! his book and ideas are so simple and basic logic and is worth a read do not know if you can down load it for i am clueless on the computer and sadly my copy as vanished in the past.
            Fond memories revived and his book certainly did me a lot of good with his experiences and buying his book was a very good investment.
            Colin

  13. Hi all. My three for today

    AYR 14:50 TEDDY TEE @ 7.0 BOG
    AYR 15:05 LESKINFERE @ 8.5 BOG
    AYR 16:10 NORTHERN GIRL @ 5.0 BOG

    All 1 Pt win

    G.L. SOLENT

  14. Tim
    Massive thank you for finding that article on Clive Holt it was a fantastic read and it certainly brought it home that records and the bank are vital to success for which he did not do at the start.
    Wish someone would reprint his first book which was a brilliant publication.
    Thanks again
    Colin

    1. Same here from me, and thank you both Tim and Colin for your comments. Read the article and it bought back a lot of memories. I think some copies of his book will be available on INet sites such as Amazon. Have family here at present but will check this evening and let you both know what i find. Thanks John

      1. I bought a few of the books by Clive Holt…still have some of them albeit a little worn now..some of the titles apart from the original little red book ( actually before the red book I think it was a little black book) include …Profitable Betting Strategies (published 1989) ; Trading Inside 1996) and Winners Back Winners 1993) – always a good read if nothing else although some of his betting methods he outlined were successful at times…some of the methods did require use of the old weekly Raceform Handicap Book which is no longer out there i’m afraid

        The publications all had Copyright …indeed he took more than one person to court to uphold the legality of the copyright and so they were protected although i don’t know if that restriction still applies since his death

  15. can’t find anything i would put a proper bet on, might have small ew on Copperhead E1-10 if it drifts a bit and i have had a couple of quid ew on Black Narcissus @ 25-1 E4-00 apart from that i think everything else i like the look of has been covered already.

    1. That’s me done for the day. Still think we were robbed when Cool Saint came down at the last as I believe it was going better than the fav’ at the time, but we’ll never know for sure. So I remain magnanimous in defeat. Pieceofaction strikes me as a bit of a plodder but you can never be sure exactly how these point 2 pointers will react to the smaller obstacles first time out. Was a price worth taking to find out for a horse that was 4 from 8 over jumps before today IMHO.

      State of play for the month…. 7W 24L +54.2

  16. Tim
    Trust you picked up on my reply to your question on Skybet price boost if not it is on yesterdays board, with more detail.
    Brief outline since messing about with it potential 17 lay bets 16 won 1 lost.
    Having a play 10 bets at £20 9 winning lay bets and 1 losing bet for a profit of £ 101.72 that is over 3 days.
    Colin

    1. I picked it up last night Colin and finding the results of interest. I recorded one loser that you didn’t have (Gorgeous Noora), so from the ones I’ve recorded I’m 1 loser from 10 at the mo’. Still… quite respectable at the odds but I’m still going to keep my powder dry for a while cos we are talking miniscule samples here and we are still not sure as to the background upon which the selections for boosting are made.

  17. Might Bite
    Has had a operation the other day regarding his breathing lets hope that the nutter can make a full recovery and show his quality on the racecourse once again.
    Colin

  18. Looking forward to the 2.30 here with no less than 3 RTP runners in a 12 horse field. We’ve got Teddy Tee by Solent which I think looks interesting. Martin C’s gone for King’s Eclipse, whilst the maestro’s on Nakadam.

    I’ve not got a penny on, so is one to just sit back and enjoy!

  19. Tim
    Massive thank you for finding that article on Clive Holt it was a fantastic read and it certainly brought it home that records and the bank are vital to success for which he did not do at the start.
    Wish someone would reprint his first book which was a brilliant publication.
    Thanks again
    Colin

    1. Same here from me, and thank you both Tim and Colin for your comments. Read the article and it bought back a lot of memories. I think some copies of his book will be available on INet sites such as Amazon. Have family here at present but will check this evening and let you both know what i find. Thanks John

      1. I bought a few of the books by Clive Holt…still have some of them albeit a little worn now..some of the titles apart from the original little red book ( actually before the red book I think it was a little black book) include …Profitable Betting Strategies (published 1989) ; Trading Inside 1996) and Winners Back Winners 1993) – always a good read if nothing else although some of his betting methods he outlined were successful at times…some of the methods did require use of the old weekly Raceform Handicap Book which is no longer out there i’m afraid

        The publications all had Copyright …indeed he took more than one person to court to uphold the legality of the copyright and so they were protected although i don’t know if that restriction still applies since his death

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