Members Daily Post: 19/01/19 (complete)

Tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Ascot

1.15 – Risk and Roll   (micro class) 30 I1 G1 9/2 S1+S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

2.25 –

Dingle   (m Hcdeb) 18/1 S2A 

Colonial Dreams (m TJC) 30 15/2 

3.00 –

San Benedeto   (m’s class/ dist) I3 16/1 S2A S5 

Cyrname   (m’s class /dist) I1 8/1 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Benatar   (m TJC) H3 G3 I3 5/1 S4 

Divne Spear  ( m TJC)16/1 S2A 

 

Haydock

3.15 – Dalkondike   (m runs)  w1 H3 13/2 

3.45 – Ubaltique   (HcCh, m’s class /dist) 6/1 

 

Taunton

2.15 –

Unison   (all Hc’s) 14 H1 G3 9/2 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Master Burbridge   (m runs) I3 25/1 S2A S5 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -3 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 0/2,1p, -3)

Big Race Tips

3.00 Ascot – Cyrname – 1 point win – 11/1 (betfs/PP) 10/1 (bet365/BV) 9/1 (the rest)  WON 10/1>9/2 (20p R4, 8/1 declared…) 

as of 18.58…

This one will be it in this race. Nicholl’s is in form, is 3/10,6p in the race and he’s an unexposed one in section 1. To my eyes he looks the overpriced one in this. He’s in the ‘could be anything’ category in handicaps, and certainly over this trip which is what he needs I think. The break is a positive given the trainer’s record in this race – it may have been the plan, and he may have had some down time post the winter flu jabs etc. At his best he’s a bold jumping front runner/prominent racer who has a decent level of graded form to his name already. He could be very smart in time, and much better than a handicapper. Conditions look ideal here and at some point i’d like to think he will be the one they have to pass- hopefully nothing does! They do remove the hood but I assume they’ve decided he’s finally grown up and learnt to settle. We shall find out I suppose. Nicholls has very good stats for those he moves in trip by 20%+ either way, and the sire (Nickname) is one to keep an eye on – 23/78,36p +45 with his chase runners in recent years. He gets a 4lb pull with Mr Whitaker for his 4L defeat at Carlisle and he may have needed it a tad there also. He’ll also prefer the softer/tackier conditions here I think. If he repeats the form of that Sandown run when just denied by Terrefort, he wins this I think. Hopefully he’s about to show himself as a graded horse in a handicap. Mr Whitaker should be the main danger I think but has a question after LTO, with Benatar and Venetia’s looking interesting, but not overpriced to my eyes. The handicapper may have Mr Medic now, or in any case he’s always in danger of bumping into something classier/with more in hand, but he should run his race and is no forlorn hope if the principles fluff their lines. I tipped Flying Angel LTO and if he rediscovers winning form returned to this trip, i’ll be sick, but he looks a bit in and out and a few too many questions now. He can be scruffy at his fences also. I think the selection is the most interesting one in here.

(3.15 hayd – Peter Marsh – free post-  Wakanda 8/1 and Three Musketeers 16/1, 1 point win each)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/137,64p, +17.8, 1 point win)

None today. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat

Osborne/Headgear

6.45 Wolvs – Riviera Claire 6/1

Jumps 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.00 A – Doitforthevillage 16/1

2.25 A – Seddon 4/1

Saturday TJC (Hobbs/Johnson) (14/1<)

1.30 H – Jerrysback

Tom Lacey 

1.50 A – Jester Jet 9/2

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO Winning Trainers

2.05 H – Esprit Du Large 9/1

3.55 T – Railroad Junkie 7/4

Trainers to Follow

4.15 H – Closing Ceremony 12/1

1.50 A- Jester Jet 9/2

2.50 T – Thomas Patrick 13/2

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

12.55 H – Bahama Moon 3/1

4.15 H – Silva Eclipse 5/1

3.00 A – Mister Whitaker 7/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Saturday Big Race Trends:  Ascot notes HERE>>> 

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4.40 Wolvs – Blessed To Empress

I wasn’t intending to head down to Wolves to watch her but it’s fairly easy to get to for me, there’s no excuse, and i’ll be training it down later on. It could well be her last race for us as the plan has been to sell her as a broodmare, but sadly last time she didn’t make our reserve. She is only 4 but has no scope and will find this year very tough and she will only ever hover around a mark of 60-64. Anyway, she owes us nothing and has won x3 for us, giving the syndicate some great days out. Having looked at the race I think she could win this. She’s been well at home , and given her size doesn’t take much to get fit – i’d be surprised if she wasn’t fit enough to run her race here. She won after a similar break at Brighton. She can have her own ideas at the start, but if she behaves and breaks on terms/can get a handy position, I think she will be bang there at the death. She drops in class from LTO and that form has been franked. I couldn’t say she’s well handicapped as such but she always tries her best – and that counts for plenty in a C6 AW race. She’s gritty and gets her head down when asked. The Evans horse looks a danger as he drops in trip and made all LTO, so I wouldn’t want to be too far off him if dicating, but he did go lame LTO. It can’t have been serious given he’s out again so soon, but you never know. Aljunood runs for a trainer who’s 0/98 in recent years and that horse still hasn’t learnt to settle. Anyway, IF she runs her race, I don’t think she will be out the places here, but maybe that’s the owners eyes talking! I will know more when I see her pre race, as when winning at Chelmsford at 16s she stood out in the parade ring, and if she looks like that again, we will have some fun. Time will tell. In any case a few of the syndicate are going and it’s always a good laugh. Hopefully I regret not tipping her! 🙂

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

47 Responses

  1. Air Horse One Taunton 14:15 1pt e/w 7/1
    Cyrname Ascot 15:00 1pt e/w 10/1
    Daklondike Haydock 15:15 1pt e/w 13/2
    Flashjack Haydock 16:15 1pt e/w 8/1

      1. Thanks. Going by where Ballyarthur finished he would have been 3rd at worst and likely a close 2nd but sadly these midterm collisions do happen at times although more so frustrating given watching it back mine made a perfectly good jump and was clotheslined mid-air by the other horse.

          1. I wasn’t going to say 😉

            By French flat rules he should be demoted to finish behind mine LOL

    1. The normal Saturday saver when yourself and Josh seem to agree on selections there is normally a profitable outcome
      Thanks a lot lads

  2. 300A Divine Spear uncertain runner; decision will be made once jockeys report ground after 1st race, needs cut.
    130H Is Jerrysback a qualifier? Unlikely to be ridden by Dickie.

  3. Evening,

    Well, was unlucky with Heluvagood, James thought he could nick it 3 out, it was unlucky, he just ran out of steam, would he have won if he`d have held onto him was open to debate and is all heresay now..so, won`t dwell on it. What was going on with TOGM is open to debate, he does like to come late and he was very late… out the back of the tv when they turned in, again not on a going day i believe.
    Right well, me , Nick and Josh have picked the same one in the 15:00 at Ascot, so, that`s put paid to that one!!
    15:00 Ascot
    CYRNAME 11/1 gen 1pt win
    Well, like Josh I too believe with Nicholls and Cobden in form at the moment, it makes for the odds being around half what they are presently, he has speed, front running style and tenacity to see the race out on his side. In fact with all that in his favour he should really be favourite, the only chink i his armour is Ascot, for some reason he doesn`t like the course, maybe that could be his undoing, but, at 11/1 it`s worth risking.Maybe HC could be the key, Sean Bowen has ridden him the last 3 times here and it could be change of jockey that unlocks the key to victory!!
    MR MEDIC 8/1 gen 1pt win
    Now, talking of jockeys for horses, it`s my old mate James Best on board this fella, he has been on board for the majority of this lads runs within the last 12 months and I think 8/1 is just value for him to go for his life and take this one by the scruff of the neck, he loves Ascot (unlike Cyrname) and I can`t see a reason why he won`t be challenging once they make the turn for home!

    15:15 Haydock
    RED INFANTRY 8/1 gen 1pt win
    Well after tipping this one up ante-post for the Classic at Warwick last week, am hoping he is now primed for a crack at this and then onto The National, he won in areally fast time in November, granted albeit on Good ground, but, he should have enough speed and guile to swep to the front and go clear…here`s hoping.
    ROBINSFIRTH 13/2 gen 1 pt win
    After tipping near enough every Tizzard runner in each one of these staying chases I cannot abandon Robinsfirth now.. He is ridden by Dickie which is odd, he is clever over his fences and is good first time out after a long break, he also fits the bill of The Dutchman from last year, the owners weren`t thinking about The National, but, may rethink if he wins here…we shal see and support is already coming…Go on the champ!!

    As always good luck with whatever you pick today / tomorrow and hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound!

    1. I`ll take that, me and Josh getting forecast up at Haydock also…haha, thought Dickie was going to do your selection on the line Josh.! I can`t complain with either of the two selected races, they finished pretty much how I expected, Dickie did leave it late though and I wonder, is he Robinsfirth a National horse??

  4. Hi all, again early as away tomorrow, the wheels did come off today !!! anyway tomorrows three ….

    ASCOT 16:05 MOONLIGHTER @ 6.0 B.O.G.
    HAYDOCK 16:15 FLASHJACK @ 8.0 B.O.G.
    TAUNTON 16:25 EARLY MORNING RAIN @ 7.5 B.O.G.

    All 1 Pt win (with a ew Trixie not recorded in P/L)
    G.L Solent

  5. Ascot 3pm 1pt e/w Divine Spear 14/1.
    According to Chris above he is a doubtful runner on ground conditions in the event he does not go 1pt e/w Mr Medic 8/1
    Hugh

    1. I’m awaiting news; the going stick reading was thought favourable earlier but heard nothing more. I’ll update later.

          1. The explanation was that the top two inches of the ground had ‘give’ but it was firm beneath (due to lack of rain) and the horse could not be risked as the danger of jarring, or worse, was too great.

  6. Tips:
    2.40 Haydock, Silver Streak, 4 points at 15/8. A class horse who has run some class races and can outclass these. I know Global Citizen is well thought of but the selection has the form in the bank.
    4.05 Ascot, Russian Hawk, 2 points each way at 6/1. Won well LTO. Up against a Henderson hot pot but that helps with the price and should place if the horse reproduces its last run.

    System selections:
    Karl Burke on the all weather but not Southwell.

    6.45 Wolves – Agent Smith 28/1 and Ffur 8/1, both 1 point win.

    1. A friend of my partner own’s Silver Streak. Well… her and her husband. They used to own Buck Mulligan but retired him shortly after buying Silver Streak. Can’t offer any inside info’ cos I don’t have any, but at this level of prize money one thing we can all be sure of is it’s there to win.

      Good luck!

  7. Tale of Woe – 2.15 Navan 25/1
    Trainer & jockey 2 from 4 together, the 2 losers the same horse. This one returns to Navan where it ran nicely on the flat and gets a jockey upgrade.

  8. FAO Greg Phillips
    Hi Greg, just to say i have asked a Q and put it as a reply to your interesting posts yesterday – unfortunately didn’t catch up with things until this morning. Thanks

    1. Hi John, in answer to your question yesterday firstly my time is very limited, I work full time and on 24/7 call every one in three, the puzzle of horse racing is my private passion, for me Inform Ratings is the starting point of any race, I tend to delve into the stats looking for horses that have 2 good recent ratings a 1 poor to see if he/she was involved in a falsely run race so can discarded that run as an example, Price dictates mostly, trainer form, going Days between wins etc all visual by hovering the old mouse, I think Inform Racing provides a lot of good information which is quickly obtainable. I think they are value for money, the system builder is new and I am still trying to find system’s the one I have so far is quite good but the system builder doesn’t give you the next day selections when the ratings come out so you have to manually find them which is time consuming as there are 9 elements to check through.
      Most of the people that put up selections on Racing to Profit are far better than me, my portfolio at the moment consist’s of Nick’s, a couple of Josh’s, SP2A and I get Ice Hockey selections from elsewhere, my wife has just left a job she hated so she is in charge of placing my bets when I’m otherwise engaged.
      Hope that helps John,
      Good Luck everyone today
      Greg

          1. Thats great. I realise there is a really diverse lot of Sports these days but must admit i ve never even looked at Ice Hockey as a Betting option. Forgot to ask re the GGs – with you working do you get time to check most of the stuff the night before? thanks

          2. Hi John, Evenings is when I do my updating of spreadsheets and study for the next day, don’t always have a bet from my own selections if pressed for time or out on call, this time of year work is always busy (I’m a gas engineer). Trying to get my wife to spend an hour looking through Inform to see if she can come up with any angles , different set of eyes etc, but she seem’s reluctant at the moment.
            The Ice Hockey I find very interesting the tips are in the handicap markets and sometimes you are backing 3 out of 4 possible outcomes if one team or the other has a clear cut win, can lost all bets mind, this is the first time I have followed it and it has been quite volatile, was up 133 points at one stage then went down to -22 points, now we are up again by 60.2 points, this same guy tips on Baseball during there season so might give that a go during the summer.
            What I tend to look for myself is horses over 5/1 who I think will place and then do a Lucky 15 if I can find 4 and have enough time, when I don’t have time my wife rings me in the morning after we get SP2A tracker horses if there are more than 4 at prices above 5/1 and do a lucky 15 from them, the week before last she picked 4 from 6 I think that were in the tracker and done a 50p E/W lucky 15 and when I got home was £1025 better off so I can work, by getting the wife involved I don’t get nagged about the time I spend on the computer. everyones a winner.
            Cheers Greg

          3. Hi Nick, they came through FTS Income, the guy is a member there and Ian who owns FTS just promoted it through his site, I have been with Ian for 10 years, his expertise is football, not my thing, I’m told the same guy does baseball as well, the only problem I can see is Betfair don’t cover the markets we back in so you have to be careful stake wise to keep your accounts open. As I previously said it’s been a rollercoaster, has taught me to have a long term attitude towards my betting, on the positive plenty of bookies cover this handicap markets.
            Thanks for the easy winner today.
            Greg

  9. Fairly busy day in terms of volume of races to go through so I’ll post part one at 12.00 and the update about 4.00. If as happened yesterday it’s a little late always check back cos it means I’m still working them. I always post something even if it’s to say there aren’t any when I’m done.

    Thanks to all the well wishers who posted on yesterday’s page. As irony would have it I’d already taken 10.0, cos I expected it would probably get backed in. Couldn’t believe it when I got back and it had SP’d at 14.7. That’s the way it goes sometimes in that had it gone the other way I might have missed out on the bet and I remember thinking 10.0 was big for it. So not unhappy, but well done those that held out for the 14.7

    Is not an exact science that’s for sure.

    1. Well done Tim on your success so far. Hopefully you can keep it up as us old lags on the site try to do. I do not get BOG from bookies but sometimes it is best just to go with the SP option, as there are shorteners and drifters and the horse does not know its price (or do they?). No they dont.

      1. A few this afternoon but likely won’t get them all…..

        Nav’ 12.30 Whoshotthesheriff 5.5
        Ling’ 1.25 Maybe Today……… 7.0
        Hay’ 1.30 Slate House……….. 6.6
        Hay’ 2.05 Esperit Du Large… 8.0
        Tau’ 3.25 Smackwaterjack… 7.0
        Asc’ 4.05 Champagne Well.. 10.0

        Interestingly, I ended up with 2 in the 4.05, the other being Admiral Barratry. Nick’s pick. So I’ve gone for Champagne Well which is the better price although there was very little between them.

        1. Still shaking here over that last race at Ascot. Doesn’t go on the record but I’d taken 20.0 about 10 minutes before the off only to be beaten by the fav’ in the photo finish. Anyways…. can’t win ’em all!

          Wolves is very tight tonight with only the one that I’m fairly certain won’t make the cut, but I’ll put it up anyway.

          7.15 Lady Cosette….. 6.0

  10. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    T 2.15 – Air Horse One on 3rd and 6th run @ 4
    T 2.50 – Vicente on 5th run @ 15/2
    3m+
    A 3.00 – Flying Angel on 1st run @ 20
    T 2.15 – Kingslad on 1st run @ 20
    T 2.50 – Regal Flow on 2nd and 4th run @ 25
    ………..The Last Samurai on 1st run @ 11/4
    Festival AW
    4.40 – Tuscany on 5th run @ 20
    GL

  11. Late addition:

    Admiral Barratry Ascot 16:05 1pt e/w 11/1-This one was fair at 5s but is now way too big. With 4 66/1 shots in a 9 horse race and the fact that Nicky’s has pulled a number out following a bug in his yard the price of this one was too big. Has some smart from last year including beating Black Op and 4L Lostintranslation and I thought the race he won last time looked a decent one for its level. Trainer has won her last 2.

  12. COLINS BETS
    Lingfield
    12.50 Pivotal Flame BOG 4/1
    Taunton
    1.05 Mr Lando BOG 14/1
    Ascot
    1.15 Rock On Rocky BOG 9/1
    2.25 Thosedaysaregone BOG 5/1
    Wolverhampton
    5.45 Katheefa BOG 15/2

    ELITE BETS
    1.25 Lingfield Maybe Today BOG 5/1
    3.00 Ascot Cyrname BOG 8/1
    Colin

      1. Agree if you are able to take an early price, the bet was hit with 3 N/Rs which i make 35pence in the £ still better than SP, for my Elite bet the R4 was only 25 pence for Jerrysback at 9/1 was already a N/R before putting my bet up.
        Colin

  13. Josh
    Well done on your couple of winners lets hope the monkey is off your back and they will start flowing again and hard luck at Wolver done by a 50/1 !!!
    Colin

    1. Well done on everyone`s victories on here, thoroughly deserved for all of us I believe overdue for more than a few!! Onwards and upwards now.

    2. Hi Colin….. how did you get on with the Skybet boosts today? Was too busy this morning sorting out my own bets to take a look see.

      1. Hi Tim
        Lucky you did not arrive home till 6am and down town tonight for it will be the last one before my op any way the Skybet boosts.
        Today which ones meet my criteria only found 4 and missed one which won they were off so could not get my bet on, 3 won and had my first loser, the prices were 1.88, 2.82, and 1.88 the loser did not record the price but it cost me £23.20
        Since i decided to have a play 17 Jan have had 10 bets and 9 winning bets and 1 loser so my £20 bets are in profit to the tune of + £ 101.72 good old Skybet traders !!! Who would have thought it.
        Since whatever day started looking at them 16 have won and 1 lost so an impressive start but a long way to go i am still amazed at how many odds on they are finding in fact the prices i have achieved are
        3.15 1.69 6.80 3.70 1.97 5.46 1.88 1.88 Lost 2.82 in future will probably have a cut off price of 5.00 anyway only playing at the moment.
        It is a pain for you do need to be by the computer or phone and keep checking when they put them up, so will miss some and some days will not even look and so no two people will achieve the same results,after 3 days of betting have made £101.72 tinkering about, not bad so far mind you will probably spend half that in Town tonight.
        Cheers
        Colin

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