Members Daily Post: 18/01/19 (complete)

Tips x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone, updates

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Chepstow

1.05 –

Moving In Style   (all Hc’s)  w1 H3 7/1  4th 7/1 

Royal Tara   (HcCh) 14,30 7/1 2nd 13/2 

3.20 –

Tara Flow   (micro dist) 14,30 14/1 S2 UP

Evidence de Thaix   (m +class) w1 14 H1 9/4 UP

Burn Baby Byrne   (HcH)  w2 I3 G3 16/1 S1 S2A S5 2nd 16/1 (1/5th odds)

 

Musselburgh Cancelled , frost 

 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -3 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 0/2,1p, -3)

Daily Tips

1.05 Chep – Camron De Chaillac – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/betfS/PP) 14/1 (the rest) UP, hmm, led/was prominent as expected- can’t say he did too much given how Venetia’s nearly won, just wasn’t good enough on the day- could be he needs lighter weight on his back and/or just didn’t see the trip out. 2m4/5f in soft around a Taunton or something and they may not see which was he’s gone. Jumped well. Exciting until about 3 from home. 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/137,64p, +17.8, 1 point win)

1.05 Chep – Moving In Style – 15/2 (bet365) 7/1 (gen) 4th… the sort of ride that makes me want to scream. I knew they’d be patient with him, so I can’t moan really, but that was just silly. There’s no way on earth he couldn’t have raced in that comfort zone further forward in my view. He’s given him so much to do, and used up so much energy to close, you’d think from a more prominent starting point he would have been even closer, but given my form that’s probably the pocket talking. Connections deserve what they get when a horse finishes like that over 3m, having been given a near impossible task. Being HU in his race LTO is one thing, he was so much further back in that race to the eye from the front, then there. Anyway, nowhere near the 50/1 winner at all, anyone have him…

 

that’s it for all tipping, 09.03, write up for 1.05 on its way…

 

Camron De Chaillac –  i thought he was worth a go at 16s/14s here and that he was the most interesting of those at double figure prices to my eyes. He was given a gentle introduction to chasing LTO, on ground too quick. He was rousted along but clearly the intention was never to be aggressive on him. He was 5L detached from the field come the first fence and it was game over from that point on really. He jumped well enough, but out to his left, losing a few lengths at each fence. He did make some promising progress down the back straight and turning for home, before being allowed to coast home. Of most interest was that he had no headgear on, and now the visor returns. He’s 2/5,3p wearing it and hasn’t won without it. That was after 43 days off and he returns within 19 days here. On his 3rd run of the season he could be spot on now. Tom keeps the ride and I think he may have had the choice of the two Hawke runners. This horse knows how to win and his hurdles form was as good as anything on offer in this race. Interestingly those wins were when ridden up there/trying to make all. Given the headgear returns, and he’s now had a chase run, i’d be mildly surprised if they didn’t try and race him up there. If he’s held up then so be it but you have to try and read between the lines and Tom’s natural style is to be aggressive and have them further forward. Hawke is 5/20,9p with his handicap chasers here in the last 5 years and the horse returns to softer ground – well I think it will be softer than Taunton and he’s best in the slop. You’d like to think there’s more to come from him over fences. The weight of 11-12 is a niggle, as I don’t know if he can carry it. Stamina is an unknown, his staying on win at Sedgefield over 2m5f suggests this is within reach and the hope is that he may improve for it. Given the upside potential with him, I thought those questions were built into this price. We shall see what the market does, as if he goes back to 16s+ across the board come the off I won’t hold out much hope. He will win chases.

Moving In Style – a section 1 qualifier and 7s has just lured me in. The going today is a bit of an unknown for everything here- i’ve no real idea what it is! The going stick of 4.5 suggests there may not be much good to soft around, but that’s the official description. They had a light frost this morning which can make the ground sticky/dead, and they are due some light rain – Newbury was due light rain the other day when I tipped one, but received plenty, and on the clock turned that ground into soft I think. This horse PU at Newton Abbot after the heavens opened and the ground was heavy. If this is very taxing, then it will be another point loaned back to the bookies – i’m loaning plenty at the moment but i’ll get them back with interest at some point. I hope. If he handles the ground I think he’s the most likely winner. His win LTO was very impressive, especially how he travelled and jumped. He won with any amount in hand to my eyes and now he has more experience they may ride him further forward, or certainly not held up out the back, which is never where you want to be. If he’s on song again though, they’ll be confident of cutting through this field, wherever he’s positioned. I’d like to think if they deem the ground unsuitable they won’t run him, and when he was PU it was his first chase run, his first run of the season, and i don’t think the yard were going that well from memory, so it could have been more than just going. He won a hurdles race on soft. Anyway, at 7s, given his form and progressive profile, I was happy to back him. I don’t think the weight rise will stop him, it wouldn’t have LTO to my eyes. That race was run 36s below standard which suggests it was hard enough work also, or the form actually isn’t that good.

Of the rest…well it does look competitive fare, between myself, Nick and Stewart we’ve picked 5 different horses which may tell it’s own story! I clocked eyes on Heluvagood when he was 7s, not 12s, and I can see the allure at bigger prices. He is in form, he stays and I think the ground is ok- softer would be a question over this trip over fences, given his decent efforts have been on good, but he did win on soft over hurdles and has course form over timber. I didn’t think his win two starts back was good form – a bit of a rubbish race to my eyes, and he nearly pulled himself up in front. At 7s I was happy to leave him, but he should run his race. The Ogle Gogle man may win again, I can never get him right, but didn’t think 7s was overpriced, given the handicapper may have him, his last race wasn’t the strongest, and he still does like to hit a fence. His recent improvement has been down to NF riding him in my view, and while Harry is decent, he’ll need to be at his best to get him jumping around here. If he does so, then he won’t be far away, but could bump into a classier/better treated rival now – i’m hoping the Mulholland horse may rate better than this lot in time, certainly given how he ran/won LTO. I could leave the Hobbs horse at 9/2 given he was poor LTO. You can forgive a horse a poor run, but not at 9/2 in a race like this in my opinion. The form of that run two starts back is working out well though and there should be more to come from him. Royal Tara I can leave at the prices, which may be dangerous given the form of the yard, but he’s lightly raced for his age which suggests problems and he’s had another short break. Rarely for one from this yard, his profile would suggest he wants better ground than this. 7s didn’t seem overpriced.

If i’m wrong, then given the odds clearly i hope Nick is right with his! If he’s on a going day (blinkers back on) and gets jumping on the front end, we may all be collecting. I didn’t think he’d be good enough to beat this lot even at his best, but it’s a game of opinions, many of these may not run their race also, and my 1 point EW is down! He is the sort where recent form can mean sod all as it’s often all or nothing from him – cue an admirable 2nd/3rd!

I may not have mentioned the winner… Alminar is another Hawke runner worth keeping an eye on. I’d like to think today isn’t the day and i’d like to see him get competitive in a race first. He moves up considerably in trip and gets CP. He ran LTO as if he has some ability for a moderate level and hopefully I haven’t picked the wrong one from the yard. Just too much guesswork with him, even at 20s. If something else wins then I was never near them and they’ll be much staring out of the window post race again.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow 

2.10 Chep – Fontsanta 

Jockeys/Chasers

1.05 Chep – Bears Rails

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

1.05 Chep – The Ogle Gogle Man

3.50 Chep – Goodgirlteresa

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NEW! Saturday Big Race Trends:  Ascot notes HERE>>> 

 

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From yesterday…

Try Geegeez Gold for free, for 4 weeksHERE>>>

It’s rare for me to advertise another ‘service’ within my own members’ club but I never have a hesitation doing so with my old mentor’s excellent set of racing tools, which are clearly very different from what I do here. (and I do use Gold for the speed ratings/trainer form indicators above, so I feel obliged every now and then!) I know a few of you out there are members and there has been some chat about ‘gold’ in recent comments. Anyway, you can now get 4 weeks completely free to see if they are something which could add to your enjoyment of racing. They make the Racing Post look very 19th century. There are no catches, if you stay beyond the 4 weeks you get charged, but like all good eggs Matt will obviously refund any ‘accidental’ payments if you forget to cancel, no questions asked, as i do. You can give Gold a go HERE>>> 

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Strategy Results Update: Mid-Month

1st Jan – 15th Jan

S1: 2/6, 3p, +19 , +16.7 BFSP

S2A 

  • 1 point win : 0/17,1p, -17
  • 1 point EW: 0/17,1p, -22
  • 1/2 point EW: 0/17,1p, -11

S3A# : 2/4,2p, +5.25

w1: 2/13,3p, -8.9

If you missed it, the results review of 2018, inc the 4 strats above inc December, is HERE>>>

I won’t do a running commentary mid month, i’ll review at the end of the month, inc my tipping. Gulp.

One of you did email me asking what my advice would be if you just wanted to follow two strategies. As i’ve mentioned before in these round-ups, as well as in the ‘Jumps Strategies: Where Should You Start’ document in the Key, if you just want two i’d start with S1 and S3A# . The main reason is that you get a bigger odds strategy with a lower win SR, but great ROI, and one with a much higher win %. Maybe more importantly those two strategies included the use of the ratings sets (the red symbols as per Key), which compliment my trainer stats research, and provide a ‘constant’ moving forwards, as well as providing context for the actual ability of the horse in said race. I hope that makes sense 🙂  In 2018 those two strategies pulled in around +150 points (S1 +75 to Betfair SP) They’ve had a good start to 2019 as above.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

125 Responses

  1. Nice winner and almost another to kick us back into profit

    Bears Rails Chepstow 13:05 1pt e/w 16/1
    Smaoineamh Alainn Chepstow 15:20 1.5pt win 11/2

    1. …… very nice e/w canadian for me .. more than 4x my stake .. many thanks ..brilliant advice as usual
      it takes some doing at your level of consistency … well done and thanks
      gb 🙂

      1. Well done today Nick, almost a big one there!
        I
        I am back in the UK now and the lack of sleep and time difference may be affecting the brain but I am going to take you on in the 1.05 CH with The Ogle Gogle Man at 7/1 BOG, 1 point each way. The horse seems to have found improvement lately and with 4 places looks pretty solid.
        I am also going to have a dart at a maiden hurdle!!! In the 2.10 CH Liosduin Bhearna steps up in distance after some solid runs. The Fergal O’Brien and Paddy Brennan team up against a Hendo favourite and a number of unexposed horses. The horse has been staying on over shorter and so may well appreciate the step up. It may be just a question of what he may be up against here, but I will go 1 point each way at 9/1 BOG.

        Good luck.

    1. Yep I sure do. Well we were planning on selling her as a broodmare, but no bids made the reserve price, so we’ve kept her in training for now. We were intending to run her at end of Dec but she was stiff behind after some work, which is very common esp fillies/mares, so had to scratch that idea. I’d be surprised if she wasn’t fit enough to do herself justice, but could be ring rusty. Her Brighton win came after nearly 2 months off. She hasn’t had time off in a field I don’t think, just kept ticking over and the residual fitness would have been there from earlier on in season etc. She’s well drawn in 5 and ran a stormer LTO, losing by an agonising nose. A drop in class here and she’s unexposed over 7f, which she seems to stay well. The 3rd that day (3 of them in a blanket finish) since came out and hacked up off 65. I’ve yet to look at the race in depth and can’t make it down sadly, so will have a look closer to the time. You’d think a repeat of that last run would put her bang there, but Wolvs is a question, and haven’t looked to see what unexposed hot pots may be lurking. The yard are in decent form and she’ll be there to run her race as always. You can often tell in her coat whether she may run a stormer, but won’t be able to see that this time.

  2. Evening, putting my three up for tomorrow early as I have a hospital appointment in the morning!!!

    CHEPSTOW 14:45 CHEF DES OBEAUX @ 3.5 B.O.G.
    CHEPSTOW 15:20 RATOUTE YUTTY @ 5.0 B.O.G.
    CHEPSTOW 18:50 MIDNIGHT OWLE @ 9.0 B.O.G.

    All 1Pt win.
    Another nice winner and second today. The wheels will surely fall off soon!!!

    G.L. Solent

  3. Sky Bet price boost
    Will not be putting anymore on this for with the reaction most now understands it, only backed 2 today and one was in the 3.55 Newcastle Elysee Palace 4/7 to 4/6 do not know how they do it my bet
    £20 1.69 return 28.98 – 1.22 + 27.76 my 2 bets profit + 36.67 not a bad return.

    Elite Bets
    Pleased that January is seeing a revival after a poor start when first put up in November.
    January 9 winners from 32 bets SP + 11.13 BOG + 19.25
    Colin

    1. Colin, as you know I speak my mind where others wont and you need to draw stumps on these knee jerk theories of bookmakers conspiracies. I’m sure if they had a clue what was going on they wouldn’t be barring us all. The betting world at the moment is very volatile with frankly nobody really having a handle on whats happening, least of all the books. The influx of even small traders on exchanges with access to BOG, shop prices and bonuses make the whole market rediculous until maybe 5 minutes to the off.

      You’ve been successful for years so why try to swim into murky waters that basically is chaos. With 30 minutes to go on betfair you will see every horse with a chance get traded up and down until everyone trades out within the last 3 minutes, none of which hasnt a clue about form or who will win. Thats the big game now and our win or ew fancies matter none to the market.

      Early morning prices are solely bet on trivial stakes with form anonomalies and tipsters taking front stage. The rest is trading until all is revealed until 3 minutes to the off, then drifts the early traded horses, doubles the non triers and in comes cash bets up to now being disguised by the nonsense. 🙂 Many thanks for this smiley whoever it was.

      1. The thing with Betfair is that it is full of back to lay or lay to back players, who have watched the videos or read the books from Caan Berry etc. This influences the odds mostly in the 5 minutes before the off and in running. They mostly all use Betfair and not the other trading sites because the markets are bigger or Caan Berry says so. Mr Berry had special forces training and so had an edge with understanding risk and logical behaviour that most of them do not have.

        1. You are spot on Martin and what many of these novice traders fail to realise is they are the sacrificial lambs waiting to be picked off. I’ve been trading cricket & football on Betfair since it’s early days (even back to ‘Flutter’ for those of us of a certain age) but on the few occasions been I’ve tempted into the racing markets I’ve had my fingers burnt. It’s the hardest sport of all to trade. Yet Betfair’s so called ‘mentors’ people like Peter Webb and Caan Berry are leading the chickens to the foxes so they can be picked off by the experienced.

      2. Yeah well maybe Colin was thinking of trying new ideas and put it on here to see what people thought, after all this is a good place to do it. I guess others who you consider don’t speak their mind maybe wait til they have something useful or constructive to say. You have your opinions on how the markets work and evolve and others have theirs. In your words ‘Frankly nobody really having a handle on whats happening’ and then stating how the markets work makes little sense to me so that makes it your opinion. The whole game involves us punters swimming in murky waters otherwise we would all be millionaires by now! I’ve found in the past that searching off the beaten path now and again very useful even if what I was looking at turned out to be fruitless. It can get me into the right mindset or discover something else, I’m sure others take similar routes too.

      3. Chubnut
        have not a clue where you are coming from if only you could get your facts correct before attempting to put me down.
        All price boost bets are not a few mins before the off which General and Toni made me aware, General posted 2.40 M/R Mrs Hyde has been a price boost since around 10.30am and Toni also put up a list with 6 horses from the morning with a price boost and has i put up earlier that i had seen them on Sporting Life fast result page at the top of the last results.
        From the price boost that i have seen Sky Bet have been correct on 8 out of 8 including the 3.55 Newcastle 4/7 to 4/6 which was one of Mark Prescott and the other 7 have all been short priced fav’s, and has Chris mentioned Colin was trying to put up new ideas, it may be a flash in the pan and on some of my posts said do not back for not enough research cannot be more open than that, but what i have seen so far there appears to be potential.
        Do not know your background in racing but what i put up on here is the experience that i have had, been to many course with Adrian and the gang with his books when younger ran and laid his bets off at Epsom Derby meeting along with Ascot, and if you are so naive to believe that the bookies are honest and full of integrity then believe that.
        Lastly you speak your mind then why if you are so successful and i have made this request 2 or 3 times before why don’t you put up your bets up on this forum for 6 months and give us all access to obviously your superior knowledge, please stop trying to put down someone who is passing his experience onto others that they may beat the accountant/bookmaker.
        Colin.
        PS another well known fact for years Ladbrokes were always the shortest price on Adrian O’Brian’s strongly fancied runners and do you not believe that they were paying someone in the stable to access this information which was worth thousands to them for they took little money on the named horse because they were the shortest in the betting, forgot i am clueless this sort of thing cannot happen those wonderful bookies would not dream of doing anything like this, anyway lets have 6 months of bets so i can record them!!!

        1. I posted this last night on yesterday’s page…..

          “One thing that don’t make sense is that Mrs Hyde is on the positive market movers list. Opened up @ 7/4 and was backed in to 10/11. Whereas Humble Hero was on the drifters list. Opened @ 1/1 and went off @ 7/4.

          Only thing I can conclude is that it doesn’t necessarily depend upon market movement as to whether Skybet traders fancy it to win or not.”

          The point is that there appears to be more to it than just the market’s opinion, I think that SkyBet are receiving covert information from sources that aren’t market related.

          1. Tim
            gone on for years and they say the bookmakers spy network is better than MI6 and MI5 put together.
            Colin

          2. ‘they say’ , who is this ‘they’ ? That’s just nonsense Colin. Sounding like a conspiracy theorist haha. The bookmakers spy network. Give me strength.

            Clearly there will be the odd dodgy trainer but to think there’s some widespread conspiracy is just barmy to my naive eyes. Absolute nonsense in the modern age. Quite agree back before TV days, exchanges etc, plenty of shenanigans went on. And they will do now, but not to a great extent.
            None of us would win long term if what you say is true, given all of their spies. I find it surprising that they ever get a price wrong!
            And i’ve had enough of the bookie bashing also, I know your views on those criminals, and we have different views on that, all your points on them has been well versed and made numerous times. 🙂

          3. C’mon Josh…. you can’t beat a good conspiracy theory. I love ’em. Appeals to my rebellious nature I guess. Thing is that although it might not be a conspiracy such as to say that there all in it together, but they’re all always on the look out for new ways to give themselves an edge over both their rivals and their customers. One thing is for sure is that bookies are not the most altruistic of people you’re ever likely to come across in the racing game.

          4. Maybe not, and I suppose most of my views are based around the big firms etc – most of the big ‘boys’ and girls (JP etc) will bet with private bookmakers anyway, and I believe Star Sports have a few very high rollers on their books who bet with them. Oh conspiracy theories clearly tap into our human nature haha. Musing over them and believing them are different things though.
            Clearly they want to find an edge, like we all do, but there’s a difference between that an illegal activity – I don’t think the latter is as widespread as some would like to believe, not in horse racing – this betting market is small compared to some- I see Betfair are banning cricket bets from India !! 🙂
            everything is a fine balance, but I just think the idea of trainers passing on inside information for laying purposes just isn’t a thing, on a wide scale.

            None of us are dealing in facts here. Hence why there’s a debate. None of us can prove anything that we are saying haha. Not from recent examples etc.

          5. Josh many of the racing presenters over the years are ones who have said on many occasions along with a few trainers.
            For trainers spent most of 20 years stopping at Dai Wiliams stables at Great Shefford no hotels for me and prior to that helped them move stables 3 times.
            Tony Carroll can turn up at his stable anytime that i wish with no appointment needed.
            Used to go to Chris Thorntons stable in Middleham which is now Karl Burkes and been to his a few times since he took over.
            Mel Britain yard which his son Antony now runs remember him at 14 on the courses most adults ignored him, because i would have a chat still remember him saying dad says so and so should run well and in most cases they did.
            Had invites to visit Alan King stable and what a lovely set up that they have,along with Venita Williams yard only the once where my son had the misfortune to be stung by a wasp.
            Willie McFarland(Nicky Henderson’s stable jockey some years ago) gave me advice about tipping lines when i was setting mine up.
            Brendan Powell when he was riding for Dai
            Richard Dunwoody when he was riding for Dai
            Ben De Haan and many more over the years.
            Did not just visit the stable and have a chat, rode the lesser lights groomed them went to the courses in the box with them and this was my holidays from work.
            Do not know how i got dragged into this for if you care to go back to my original post after 8 from 8 i said do not know how they do it end of case!!!
            Josh no intention of falling out with you but you have a couple of small shares with a trainer, afraid the horses and riding them have been my life and i am so proud with my connection to Trainers and Bookmaker friends and this goes back over 30 years or more so i am certainly no fool in this sport of Kings even though i am the pauper have had a privileged life and would not change it.
            Will not mention the bookies again is that cheering i hear Ha Ha, but where this is money there will always be corruption from common greed, ask the Pakistan cricket players cameras all around the ground and they did it for the Asian Bookmakers for money,Lance Armstrong the cyclist and it certainly is in racing along with the b—–s did not mention them Ha HA
            Cheers
            Colin

          6. So those names listed have told you about their relationship with bookies, and how they are all in it together, letting each other know when one won’t be winning etc? Fair enough, if you’ve first hand experience of that from those details above. If not, then i’m not sure how all of that is relevant to this conversation. We will just leave it there and agree to disagree again, we’ve both made our points and we are on different ends of the spectrum but neither of it is based on facts, and I don’t think either of our views is based on what actually goes on in these big firms trading rooms and how they operate. We are arguing over subjective experiences.
            I just don’t want any of the continual negative bookie bashing nonsense, you can sound off about that in private to someone, I like to try and remain positive in this game, especially given my horrid form.

          7. Josh
            You know that i cannot disclose any conversation on a forum from trainers that is how to lose them as friends however many subjects have been debated over the years especially with Dai and Tony.

            Anyone wishes to own or have a share in a horse and you live close enough to their yards you cannot wish for more open and welcoming trainers than these two, and with both would imagine that you would pretty well have open access regarding visits.
            Colin.

    2. Many thanks to Colin and all the other posts on here. I do not have a clue about the “murky” world of exchanges. I do however remember flutter, i got 50 times my stake which was a modest £2 back then on Gingembre to win the Hennesey back in the day!
      I occasionally look at Betfair exchanges if i see a horse at odds miles better than what i think the SP will be, but, for me, it is personal thing, as is your betting and betting bank / how much you bet.
      I do this for fun and it is a hobby. If it was anything else I would have stopped years ago.
      I have won big and also lost big, but, as with all hobbies, you keep ploughing away and accept those up and down days.
      For me it is the thrill of picking a winner, or even as has been the case in the last few years since coming on here, looking at all the mix of charachters and how they analyse picking horses and joinig in with them and their joys / low spots.
      Every other blog i have seen out there screams “LOOK AT OUR WINNERS!”, on here it is “oh damn I`m having another losing run, but, overall I`m still in profit”, or, “I`ll pack up for a bit and come back after a rest”… It is refreshing and helps you gain focus with your own personal style of betting…It may not be for all and everyone is entitled to their opinion, but, surely we are all working to help each other out, not bickering about who said what to whom and then by what means, or, am I missing something and there are more sinister goings on here?

  4. 3 for today but at reduced stakes only 1/4 pt ew and a very small ew patent as to be fair i should leave them alone but can’t get rid of that niggle that i should back them, the singles will be included in results.
    Chepstow 1-05. Gamain 16-1 4 places generally
    Chepstow 3-50. Holeinthewall Bar 22-1 b365 4 places
    Musselburgh 1-15 . Urban Kode 8-1

  5. Nice winner and almost another to kick us back into profit

    Bears Rails Chepstow 13:05 1pt e/w 16/1
    Smaoineamh Alainn Chepstow 15:20 1.5pt win 11/2

    1. …… very nice e/w canadian for me .. more than 4x my stake .. many thanks ..brilliant advice as usual
      it takes some doing at your level of consistency … well done and thanks
      gb 🙂

      1. Well done today Nick, almost a big one there!
        I
        I am back in the UK now and the lack of sleep and time difference may be affecting the brain but I am going to take you on in the 1.05 CH with The Ogle Gogle Man at 7/1 BOG, 1 point each way. The horse seems to have found improvement lately and with 4 places looks pretty solid.
        I am also going to have a dart at a maiden hurdle!!! In the 2.10 CH Liosduin Bhearna steps up in distance after some solid runs. The Fergal O’Brien and Paddy Brennan team up against a Hendo favourite and a number of unexposed horses. The horse has been staying on over shorter and so may well appreciate the step up. It may be just a question of what he may be up against here, but I will go 1 point each way at 9/1 BOG.

        Good luck.

    1. Yep I sure do. Well we were planning on selling her as a broodmare, but no bids made the reserve price, so we’ve kept her in training for now. We were intending to run her at end of Dec but she was stiff behind after some work, which is very common esp fillies/mares, so had to scratch that idea. I’d be surprised if she wasn’t fit enough to do herself justice, but could be ring rusty. Her Brighton win came after nearly 2 months off. She hasn’t had time off in a field I don’t think, just kept ticking over and the residual fitness would have been there from earlier on in season etc. She’s well drawn in 5 and ran a stormer LTO, losing by an agonising nose. A drop in class here and she’s unexposed over 7f, which she seems to stay well. The 3rd that day (3 of them in a blanket finish) since came out and hacked up off 65. I’ve yet to look at the race in depth and can’t make it down sadly, so will have a look closer to the time. You’d think a repeat of that last run would put her bang there, but Wolvs is a question, and haven’t looked to see what unexposed hot pots may be lurking. The yard are in decent form and she’ll be there to run her race as always. You can often tell in her coat whether she may run a stormer, but won’t be able to see that this time.

  6. Evening, putting my three up for tomorrow early as I have a hospital appointment in the morning!!!

    CHEPSTOW 14:45 CHEF DES OBEAUX @ 3.5 B.O.G.
    CHEPSTOW 15:20 RATOUTE YUTTY @ 5.0 B.O.G.
    CHEPSTOW 18:50 MIDNIGHT OWLE @ 9.0 B.O.G.

    All 1Pt win.
    Another nice winner and second today. The wheels will surely fall off soon!!!

    G.L. Solent

  7. a family member is off to Lingfield today and asked if i would look through the card for a few pointers, i did explain that AW is not my forte ( mind you with recent results it seems turf isn’t either 🙂 ).
    wide awake at silly o’clock so thought i would give it a go but if anyone has some real tips let me know please.
    12-55. High Acclaim 11-2
    1-25. Ubla 12-1 ew, my only real fancy
    2-00. Bridlemere Court 16-1, Lincoln Spirit 10-1 small ew on both
    2-30. Watchable 11-2 to break AW duck ?
    3-05.Pharoh Jake 5-1, veteran that won lto and is unpenalised for that win could oblige again.
    3-40. not even a clue

    1. Hi Martin, I have been playing around with Inform Ratings new system builder, I have got an A/W system that is 66 wins from 280 bets last year for a BSP profit of 164.3 points profit, it’s Class 3 to 5 handicaps up to 1 mile 3 furlongs anyway today’s only selection is the one you picked in the 12.55 High Acclaim.
      Work calls, good luck.

        1. Hi Edward, I have had Inform Racing ratings for about 5 Years now, I’m a fan of speed ratings and have tried many but think these are the best I have come across, if they were no good I’m sure Josh wouldn’t use them, they are good for narrowing down a field to focus on fewer runners.
          Hope that helps.

          1. Hi Greg,
            Unfortunately missed this yesterday. I too am grateful for the comment. I tried Geegeez a year or so ago (i only joined RtoP early Decmber so am new to this site)and although i was very impressed i didnt have sufficient time to do it justice and justify the subs (not that they are expensive!) so opted out after a couple of months. As for the ‘speed’ part i never really got into that. I was wondering roughly how long you spend a day on average with them. Whilst i am at home most of time to enable me to get bets on i have a huge personal project which is my main focus and therefore time is very limited. I notice that many of the excellent people o here spend 90 minutes up to 2 hours or or me a day – inc evenings before, but unfortunately i cant do that for the foreseeable future. I’m not sure whether to give the ‘free month’ a try again – although i am absolutely committed to this Site and believe in its huge potential to help us profit. If you have time, any additional comments or remarks on your process which you feel you can share would be much appreciated. Thanks again John

      1. If you have a bet on Betfair exchanges and your horse trades odds on in running you get your money back on that 12.55 race it’s up to a tenner back I think

    2. 305 Thegreyvtrain seems a bit of a short runner so this could be the ideal CD. Good draw and Probert is an increasingly significant booking for the trainer.
      Bridlemere C. is a value bet for me too.
      125 A speculative £1 on my flight of fancy, King of Rooks?
      230 Teruntum Star is my nap.
      Have a lovely time at Leafy.

      1. cheers Chris iv’e passed them on, lovely course Lingfield used to go a lot from a young age, got in for nothing when my mum worked there, Beverley is my local now iv’e migrated north another lovely course.

  8. 3 for today but at reduced stakes only 1/4 pt ew and a very small ew patent as to be fair i should leave them alone but can’t get rid of that niggle that i should back them, the singles will be included in results.
    Chepstow 1-05. Gamain 16-1 4 places generally
    Chepstow 3-50. Holeinthewall Bar 22-1 b365 4 places
    Musselburgh 1-15 . Urban Kode 8-1

  9. Morning,

    Another race to bring me out of my slumber…Not mentioning the “B” word in case I upset someone again.(Only joking Colin, all the best to you, hope the trip to the opticians went well!)
    13:05 Chepstow
    THE OGLE GOGLE MAN 7/1 gen 1pt win
    He is having a cracking season and i don`t believe he is finished yet, he jumps really big and that is what it is all about in reference to Chepstow, some of these fences are taken at a right old clip and it takes a “clever” one to get over in a rythmn. TOGM is one of those, he also has Harry B on board a jockey I am definitely warming too.
    HELUVAGOOD 12/1 gen 1pt win
    Now you may call me daft, but, this one could be either back of TV material, or, he will come home on the bridle, you never know what to expect from him..His win at Exeter left him just out in front with the cavalry chasing him down and i do think he needs to be produced very late, but, believe that James Best may be the answer and so long as he rides him steady there will be enough left in the tank to see him home, at 12/1 is just value! His win here was over hurdles, but, liking for the course and it`s undulations normally transpires over to the chase track. (Elegant Escape won it`s Maiden hurdle here before coming back and winning Welsh National).

    As per usual, good luck and hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound.
    Good luck with whatever you pick today also!

    1. Stewart
      Like it, Ha Ha
      You are certainly entitled to that one!!! lets hope you have a winner.
      Cheers
      Colin B

  10. Intriguing that Ryan Moore is deigning to visit Lingfield today for just one ride. Allocator in the last for Richard Hannon and previously unraced. Up against 2 other promising types, so 4/1 is currently on offer.

    1. Dave
      brave man to touch that race even with Moore aboard for 6 horses have only run 6 races between them and their is no evidence that they have trained on from 2yo to 3yo.
      Cheers
      Colin

    2. Hi Dave
      Well the Moore factor 4/1 to 5/4, did not see the race but in the end Applebys winner at 3/1 what a price.
      These unexposed 3yo with no runs behind them are terrible races to punt in.
      All the best
      Colin

  11. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 3.50 – Overawed on 3rd run @ 14
    AW
    L 1.25 – Barrsbrook on 6th run @ 10
    K 6.45 – Sunblazer on 3rd run @ 5
    Festival
    C 2.45 – Now McGinty on 4th run @ 5
    C 3.20 – Smaoineamh Alainn on 4th run @ 9/2
    AW
    L 2.30 – Teruntum Star on 6th and 7th run @ 6
    3m+
    C 1.05 – According to Harry on 4th run @ 33
    GL

  12. a family member is off to Lingfield today and asked if i would look through the card for a few pointers, i did explain that AW is not my forte ( mind you with recent results it seems turf isn’t either 🙂 ).
    wide awake at silly o’clock so thought i would give it a go but if anyone has some real tips let me know please.
    12-55. High Acclaim 11-2
    1-25. Ubla 12-1 ew, my only real fancy
    2-00. Bridlemere Court 16-1, Lincoln Spirit 10-1 small ew on both
    2-30. Watchable 11-2 to break AW duck ?
    3-05.Pharoh Jake 5-1, veteran that won lto and is unpenalised for that win could oblige again.
    3-40. not even a clue

    1. Hi Martin, I have been playing around with Inform Ratings new system builder, I have got an A/W system that is 66 wins from 280 bets last year for a BSP profit of 164.3 points profit, it’s Class 3 to 5 handicaps up to 1 mile 3 furlongs anyway today’s only selection is the one you picked in the 12.55 High Acclaim.
      Work calls, good luck.

        1. Hi Edward, I have had Inform Racing ratings for about 5 Years now, I’m a fan of speed ratings and have tried many but think these are the best I have come across, if they were no good I’m sure Josh wouldn’t use them, they are good for narrowing down a field to focus on fewer runners.
          Hope that helps.

          1. Hi Greg,
            Unfortunately missed this yesterday. I too am grateful for the comment. I tried Geegeez a year or so ago (i only joined RtoP early Decmber so am new to this site)and although i was very impressed i didnt have sufficient time to do it justice and justify the subs (not that they are expensive!) so opted out after a couple of months. As for the ‘speed’ part i never really got into that. I was wondering roughly how long you spend a day on average with them. Whilst i am at home most of time to enable me to get bets on i have a huge personal project which is my main focus and therefore time is very limited. I notice that many of the excellent people o here spend 90 minutes up to 2 hours or or me a day – inc evenings before, but unfortunately i cant do that for the foreseeable future. I’m not sure whether to give the ‘free month’ a try again – although i am absolutely committed to this Site and believe in its huge potential to help us profit. If you have time, any additional comments or remarks on your process which you feel you can share would be much appreciated. Thanks again John

      1. If you have a bet on Betfair exchanges and your horse trades odds on in running you get your money back on that 12.55 race it’s up to a tenner back I think

    2. 305 Thegreyvtrain seems a bit of a short runner so this could be the ideal CD. Good draw and Probert is an increasingly significant booking for the trainer.
      Bridlemere C. is a value bet for me too.
      125 A speculative £1 on my flight of fancy, King of Rooks?
      230 Teruntum Star is my nap.
      Have a lovely time at Leafy.

      1. cheers Chris iv’e passed them on, lovely course Lingfield used to go a lot from a young age, got in for nothing when my mum worked there, Beverley is my local now iv’e migrated north another lovely course.

  13. For what it’s worth I find the idea of ‘inside information’ to be complete bollocks 99% of the time, certainly from connections of horses! And I say that as someone who owns two and has an ‘inside line’. Most trainers are not very good at reading form, and simply know the horse they have, and whether they think it’s showing X at home, working well next to Y, and can clearly have confidence as to whether it will run well today – but they rarely can read the oppo inside out, especially in handicaps.
    These comments are based on today’s information age, not what went on in the pre exchange world. I have read the book Doped and am aware of the levels of corruption in the 60s/70s and before, and maybe for a time after.

    I find the idea that Skybet have numerous ‘contacts’ connected to yards etc to be hilarious. The only one that matters is the trainer and the idea that they are having illegal and private conversations with bookie reps about whether to lay a horse I find amusing. Like most bookies I assume they have marked accounts, and they will know what to look for when money comes, or doesn’t come for certain runners, from certain connections – that will be their information, and legitimate. Nick will probably reach the level one day when his accounts are marked!
    They won’t be ringing up Phillip Hobbs on a burner phone, or a member of JPs inner circle, to determine whether they should ‘boost’ the fav in the 3.20 – nor speaking to a lad or lass, most of whom wouldn’t know how to read a race card, with the odd exception.
    They will be making judgement calls for various reasons, and boosting clearly benefits them long term somehow, I assume by many people being lured into back them, with their judgement that over time they’ll get enough right (they lose) and they make a return, or they just do it for marketing purposes etc, or a mix. I’ll be interested to see how it goes but they will boost plenty of winners in time I suspect. I could be wrong.
    I can’t think many trainers/bookies will be risking licenses by sharing market sensitive information, given how exchanges are monitored, phones confiscated, conversations recorded in bookmakers offices (Dave Evans example with ladbrokes… inadvertently alerting to a non runner I think which hadn’t officially been withdrawn,manipulated R4s etc…but he legally in that conversation placed a 5K + bet from memory, that lost!) etc etc.

    Maybe as always I’m just naive, but I think most of it is nonsense. Their ‘information’ will be coming from their own traders/software views, as well as the right marked accounts giving signals via what has been backed or hasn’t etc.

    And well, if it’s all bent to buggery, quite frankly enough of the sport is straight to do just fine, as we have all proved on here over time, albeit less so recently from me. Now, maybe I just need a burner phone and some contacts…. who can I ask about the chances of Blessed to Empress… 🙂

    1. I know nothing of how bookies work day to day, but I have always discounted most of the conspiracy theories. The bookies make a profit easily enough by shortening odds quickly as soon as money comes in for a horse.
      When a horse is tipped by a Pricewise, or even a Quentin Franks on Betting Gods, you have literally only seconds to get a bet on before the odds are slashed.
      By this time of day it is hard to find bookie odds that beat the exchanges. They have a comfortable margin. I have always been intrigued though by books that do seem to play the market. They don’t necessarily call their odds a ‘price boost’, but you’ll find eg that BlackType will suddenly lengthen odds on a favourite way beyond the exchange prices, and leave the price there for some time. This is not balancing their book, but betting against the horse. And I find it hard to make a good return from BlackType – I’d even say it might pay to lay their boosted favourites. I recall Stan James doing this, and PaddyPower sometimes, though that is in the past – I lost my PP account 8 years ago, and SJ back in the mists of time.

    2. Josh
      David Evans was given a larger price than what was available to anyone else for his information and would doubt that this was a one off , it was the time that they were caught.
      Cheers
      Colin

      1. That’s nonsense and factually incorrect! Read the transcript and the reports.
        He was offered 4/1 on Black Dave, and enhanced from 7/2 – nothing wrong with that, head trader had to sign it off. He put 6k on. It lost. He’s clearly a good punter for them I would suggest! And yes it’s useful to know the trainer fancies one of his, but that’s all legitimate.
        After he confirmed the bet, a further conversation followed where he informed him of the NR- before he made it official. Ladbrokes cut the bet from 7/2, to 3/1 thus manipulating the rule 4, from 20 to 25p in the pound (which I assume impacted his black dave losing bet also, if it had won!)
        The latter half of the conversation was a clear breach, and punished. It was a recorded phone conversation. The report concludes Ladbrokes did not bribe for information, the evidence didn’t support that view, hence I assume what could be deemed a lenient enough sentence.
        Anyway.

  14. Morning,

    Another race to bring me out of my slumber…Not mentioning the “B” word in case I upset someone again.(Only joking Colin, all the best to you, hope the trip to the opticians went well!)
    13:05 Chepstow
    THE OGLE GOGLE MAN 7/1 gen 1pt win
    He is having a cracking season and i don`t believe he is finished yet, he jumps really big and that is what it is all about in reference to Chepstow, some of these fences are taken at a right old clip and it takes a “clever” one to get over in a rythmn. TOGM is one of those, he also has Harry B on board a jockey I am definitely warming too.
    HELUVAGOOD 12/1 gen 1pt win
    Now you may call me daft, but, this one could be either back of TV material, or, he will come home on the bridle, you never know what to expect from him..His win at Exeter left him just out in front with the cavalry chasing him down and i do think he needs to be produced very late, but, believe that James Best may be the answer and so long as he rides him steady there will be enough left in the tank to see him home, at 12/1 is just value! His win here was over hurdles, but, liking for the course and it`s undulations normally transpires over to the chase track. (Elegant Escape won it`s Maiden hurdle here before coming back and winning Welsh National).

    As per usual, good luck and hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound.
    Good luck with whatever you pick today also!

    1. Stewart
      Like it, Ha Ha
      You are certainly entitled to that one!!! lets hope you have a winner.
      Cheers
      Colin B

  15. Going to mention a horse that I thought had been given some ‘tender’ rides lately.

    Unfortunately it’s running in the Chepstow 1.05 which has been done to death by many above.

    The horse is Abbeygrey and LTO it wasn’t put into the race at all.

    Today it gets the stable jockey which it hasn’t had for awhile.

    An EW nibble for me @25/1.

  16. They do loads of ‘boosts’ for all kind of sports and it is surely just one big gimmick. Boosting a 5/6 shot to 10/11 (which every other firm is offering) is just another way of enticing the lesser informed favourite backer that they are getting a good deal. The odds are still in the favour of the bookie and in the long run they know they’ll still win more than plenty from the favourite backer.

    They boost all kinds of things in different sports but it would be deemed illogical to suggest those are fuelled by corruption

  17. Only one for me this afternoon………

    Ling’ 1.25 Ventriloquist………11.0

    Possibilities at Dundalk & Kempers so back about 4.00

  18. Intriguing that Ryan Moore is deigning to visit Lingfield today for just one ride. Allocator in the last for Richard Hannon and previously unraced. Up against 2 other promising types, so 4/1 is currently on offer.

    1. Dave
      brave man to touch that race even with Moore aboard for 6 horses have only run 6 races between them and their is no evidence that they have trained on from 2yo to 3yo.
      Cheers
      Colin

    2. Hi Dave
      Well the Moore factor 4/1 to 5/4, did not see the race but in the end Applebys winner at 3/1 what a price.
      These unexposed 3yo with no runs behind them are terrible races to punt in.
      All the best
      Colin

  19. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 3.50 – Overawed on 3rd run @ 14
    AW
    L 1.25 – Barrsbrook on 6th run @ 10
    K 6.45 – Sunblazer on 3rd run @ 5
    Festival
    C 2.45 – Now McGinty on 4th run @ 5
    C 3.20 – Smaoineamh Alainn on 4th run @ 9/2
    AW
    L 2.30 – Teruntum Star on 6th and 7th run @ 6
    3m+
    C 1.05 – According to Harry on 4th run @ 33
    GL

  20. For what it’s worth I find the idea of ‘inside information’ to be complete bollocks 99% of the time, certainly from connections of horses! And I say that as someone who owns two and has an ‘inside line’. Most trainers are not very good at reading form, and simply know the horse they have, and whether they think it’s showing X at home, working well next to Y, and can clearly have confidence as to whether it will run well today – but they rarely can read the oppo inside out, especially in handicaps.
    These comments are based on today’s information age, not what went on in the pre exchange world. I have read the book Doped and am aware of the levels of corruption in the 60s/70s and before, and maybe for a time after.

    I find the idea that Skybet have numerous ‘contacts’ connected to yards etc to be hilarious. The only one that matters is the trainer and the idea that they are having illegal and private conversations with bookie reps about whether to lay a horse I find amusing. Like most bookies I assume they have marked accounts, and they will know what to look for when money comes, or doesn’t come for certain runners, from certain connections – that will be their information, and legitimate. Nick will probably reach the level one day when his accounts are marked!
    They won’t be ringing up Phillip Hobbs on a burner phone, or a member of JPs inner circle, to determine whether they should ‘boost’ the fav in the 3.20 – nor speaking to a lad or lass, most of whom wouldn’t know how to read a race card, with the odd exception.
    They will be making judgement calls for various reasons, and boosting clearly benefits them long term somehow, I assume by many people being lured into back them, with their judgement that over time they’ll get enough right (they lose) and they make a return, or they just do it for marketing purposes etc, or a mix. I’ll be interested to see how it goes but they will boost plenty of winners in time I suspect. I could be wrong.
    I can’t think many trainers/bookies will be risking licenses by sharing market sensitive information, given how exchanges are monitored, phones confiscated, conversations recorded in bookmakers offices (Dave Evans example with ladbrokes… inadvertently alerting to a non runner I think which hadn’t officially been withdrawn,manipulated R4s etc…but he legally in that conversation placed a 5K + bet from memory, that lost!) etc etc.

    Maybe as always I’m just naive, but I think most of it is nonsense. Their ‘information’ will be coming from their own traders/software views, as well as the right marked accounts giving signals via what has been backed or hasn’t etc.

    And well, if it’s all bent to buggery, quite frankly enough of the sport is straight to do just fine, as we have all proved on here over time, albeit less so recently from me. Now, maybe I just need a burner phone and some contacts…. who can I ask about the chances of Blessed to Empress… 🙂

    1. I know nothing of how bookies work day to day, but I have always discounted most of the conspiracy theories. The bookies make a profit easily enough by shortening odds quickly as soon as money comes in for a horse.
      When a horse is tipped by a Pricewise, or even a Quentin Franks on Betting Gods, you have literally only seconds to get a bet on before the odds are slashed.
      By this time of day it is hard to find bookie odds that beat the exchanges. They have a comfortable margin. I have always been intrigued though by books that do seem to play the market. They don’t necessarily call their odds a ‘price boost’, but you’ll find eg that BlackType will suddenly lengthen odds on a favourite way beyond the exchange prices, and leave the price there for some time. This is not balancing their book, but betting against the horse. And I find it hard to make a good return from BlackType – I’d even say it might pay to lay their boosted favourites. I recall Stan James doing this, and PaddyPower sometimes, though that is in the past – I lost my PP account 8 years ago, and SJ back in the mists of time.

    2. Josh
      David Evans was given a larger price than what was available to anyone else for his information and would doubt that this was a one off , it was the time that they were caught.
      Cheers
      Colin

      1. That’s nonsense and factually incorrect! Read the transcript and the reports.
        He was offered 4/1 on Black Dave, and enhanced from 7/2 – nothing wrong with that, head trader had to sign it off. He put 6k on. It lost. He’s clearly a good punter for them I would suggest! And yes it’s useful to know the trainer fancies one of his, but that’s all legitimate.
        After he confirmed the bet, a further conversation followed where he informed him of the NR- before he made it official. Ladbrokes cut the bet from 7/2, to 3/1 thus manipulating the rule 4, from 20 to 25p in the pound (which I assume impacted his black dave losing bet also, if it had won!)
        The latter half of the conversation was a clear breach, and punished. It was a recorded phone conversation. The report concludes Ladbrokes did not bribe for information, the evidence didn’t support that view, hence I assume what could be deemed a lenient enough sentence.
        Anyway.

  21. Going to mention a horse that I thought had been given some ‘tender’ rides lately.

    Unfortunately it’s running in the Chepstow 1.05 which has been done to death by many above.

    The horse is Abbeygrey and LTO it wasn’t put into the race at all.

    Today it gets the stable jockey which it hasn’t had for awhile.

    An EW nibble for me @25/1.

  22. They do loads of ‘boosts’ for all kind of sports and it is surely just one big gimmick. Boosting a 5/6 shot to 10/11 (which every other firm is offering) is just another way of enticing the lesser informed favourite backer that they are getting a good deal. The odds are still in the favour of the bookie and in the long run they know they’ll still win more than plenty from the favourite backer.

    They boost all kinds of things in different sports but it would be deemed illogical to suggest those are fuelled by corruption

  23. Only one for me this afternoon………

    Ling’ 1.25 Ventriloquist………11.0

    Possibilities at Dundalk & Kempers so back about 4.00

  24. Typical i missed Tim’s late post winner, any chance that you could put them up all together in the morning

    1. I tried to do that in the first attempt at posting and it wasn’t successful. Problem for me is that I need the market to mature so as I can figure out where the best value lies. The fact that I’m waiting it out is the main reason as to why this version is performing so much better than my first attempt.

    1. Tim
      Thanks for the 12/1 winner better than my tame effort.
      Don’t know if i dare mention it but have you been watching Sky Bet price boost the ones that i have seen are now 12 from 12 to lay and i did miss one in Ireland.
      Have backed 6 at £20 and my profit stands at £70.65, not into laying if you are then if i bet with a bookmaker to £20 pound if the horse loses then i receive no money back,laying with Betfair Exchange whether taking SP or the price they are hammering me SP odds 3.15 return 9.30 – 0.39 + 8.91 how come i do not receive my £20 back poss less commission totally confused HELP.
      Cheers
      Colin
      7.15 next race nothing in there so can watch them till last race for out at 10 .30

      1. I’ve been following them myself today but only found 4 win boosts for British racing of which 3 came in (lost), but Gorgeous Noora which was up at about 10.00 went on to win her race. Wasn’t laying them just watching for now.

        1. Your return is dependent upon the stake and as to whether you are laying by liability or laying by the stake. So for example…. if you lay by liability and you place £20 to lose it doesn’t matter what the odds are you will always lose £20. So if you took 3.0 (2/1) you will win £10, but if you layed it at 6.0 (5/1) you would only win £4. If the horse wins either way it costs you £20.

          If you lay by stake it gets very expensive if you don’t keep the odds low cos £20 @ 3.0 costs you £40 but £20 @ 6.0 costs you £100 if the horse wins the race. From what you are telling me you are fixing your liability which is the safest way to play.

          1. Thanks Tim never done lay before so all new to me, one decided to miss was about 8.8 it did lose and the layer won so maybe set a figure of 5.00 for very impressed on the shorter prices that have come up, still a learning curve for me.
            Don’t forget need a winner or two tomorrow no pressure for you have set the bar high from the start!!!
            Cheers
            Colin

    1. I tried to do that in the first attempt at posting and it wasn’t successful. Problem for me is that I need the market to mature so as I can figure out where the best value lies. The fact that I’m waiting it out is the main reason as to why this version is performing so much better than my first attempt.

    1. Tim
      Thanks for the 12/1 winner better than my tame effort.
      Don’t know if i dare mention it but have you been watching Sky Bet price boost the ones that i have seen are now 12 from 12 to lay and i did miss one in Ireland.
      Have backed 6 at £20 and my profit stands at £70.65, not into laying if you are then if i bet with a bookmaker to £20 pound if the horse loses then i receive no money back,laying with Betfair Exchange whether taking SP or the price they are hammering me SP odds 3.15 return 9.30 – 0.39 + 8.91 how come i do not receive my £20 back poss less commission totally confused HELP.
      Cheers
      Colin
      7.15 next race nothing in there so can watch them till last race for out at 10 .30

      1. I’ve been following them myself today but only found 4 win boosts for British racing of which 3 came in (lost), but Gorgeous Noora which was up at about 10.00 went on to win her race. Wasn’t laying them just watching for now.

  25. Sky Bet price boost
    Will not be putting anymore on this for with the reaction most now understands it, only backed 2 today and one was in the 3.55 Newcastle Elysee Palace 4/7 to 4/6 do not know how they do it my bet
    £20 1.69 return 28.98 – 1.22 + 27.76 my 2 bets profit + 36.67 not a bad return.

    Elite Bets
    Pleased that January is seeing a revival after a poor start when first put up in November.
    January 9 winners from 32 bets SP + 11.13 BOG + 19.25
    Colin

    1. Colin, as you know I speak my mind where others wont and you need to draw stumps on these knee jerk theories of bookmakers conspiracies. I’m sure if they had a clue what was going on they wouldn’t be barring us all. The betting world at the moment is very volatile with frankly nobody really having a handle on whats happening, least of all the books. The influx of even small traders on exchanges with access to BOG, shop prices and bonuses make the whole market rediculous until maybe 5 minutes to the off.

      You’ve been successful for years so why try to swim into murky waters that basically is chaos. With 30 minutes to go on betfair you will see every horse with a chance get traded up and down until everyone trades out within the last 3 minutes, none of which hasnt a clue about form or who will win. Thats the big game now and our win or ew fancies matter none to the market.

      Early morning prices are solely bet on trivial stakes with form anonomalies and tipsters taking front stage. The rest is trading until all is revealed until 3 minutes to the off, then drifts the early traded horses, doubles the non triers and in comes cash bets up to now being disguised by the nonsense. 🙂 Many thanks for this smiley whoever it was.

      1. The thing with Betfair is that it is full of back to lay or lay to back players, who have watched the videos or read the books from Caan Berry etc. This influences the odds mostly in the 5 minutes before the off and in running. They mostly all use Betfair and not the other trading sites because the markets are bigger or Caan Berry says so. Mr Berry had special forces training and so had an edge with understanding risk and logical behaviour that most of them do not have.

        1. You are spot on Martin and what many of these novice traders fail to realise is they are the sacrificial lambs waiting to be picked off. I’ve been trading cricket & football on Betfair since it’s early days (even back to ‘Flutter’ for those of us of a certain age) but on the few occasions been I’ve tempted into the racing markets I’ve had my fingers burnt. It’s the hardest sport of all to trade. Yet Betfair’s so called ‘mentors’ people like Peter Webb and Caan Berry are leading the chickens to the foxes so they can be picked off by the experienced.

      2. Yeah well maybe Colin was thinking of trying new ideas and put it on here to see what people thought, after all this is a good place to do it. I guess others who you consider don’t speak their mind maybe wait til they have something useful or constructive to say. You have your opinions on how the markets work and evolve and others have theirs. In your words ‘Frankly nobody really having a handle on whats happening’ and then stating how the markets work makes little sense to me so that makes it your opinion. The whole game involves us punters swimming in murky waters otherwise we would all be millionaires by now! I’ve found in the past that searching off the beaten path now and again very useful even if what I was looking at turned out to be fruitless. It can get me into the right mindset or discover something else, I’m sure others take similar routes too.

      3. Chubnut
        have not a clue where you are coming from if only you could get your facts correct before attempting to put me down.
        All price boost bets are not a few mins before the off which General and Toni made me aware, General posted 2.40 M/R Mrs Hyde has been a price boost since around 10.30am and Toni also put up a list with 6 horses from the morning with a price boost and has i put up earlier that i had seen them on Sporting Life fast result page at the top of the last results.
        From the price boost that i have seen Sky Bet have been correct on 8 out of 8 including the 3.55 Newcastle 4/7 to 4/6 which was one of Mark Prescott and the other 7 have all been short priced fav’s, and has Chris mentioned Colin was trying to put up new ideas, it may be a flash in the pan and on some of my posts said do not back for not enough research cannot be more open than that, but what i have seen so far there appears to be potential.
        Do not know your background in racing but what i put up on here is the experience that i have had, been to many course with Adrian and the gang with his books when younger ran and laid his bets off at Epsom Derby meeting along with Ascot, and if you are so naive to believe that the bookies are honest and full of integrity then believe that.
        Lastly you speak your mind then why if you are so successful and i have made this request 2 or 3 times before why don’t you put up your bets up on this forum for 6 months and give us all access to obviously your superior knowledge, please stop trying to put down someone who is passing his experience onto others that they may beat the accountant/bookmaker.
        Colin.
        PS another well known fact for years Ladbrokes were always the shortest price on Adrian O’Brian’s strongly fancied runners and do you not believe that they were paying someone in the stable to access this information which was worth thousands to them for they took little money on the named horse because they were the shortest in the betting, forgot i am clueless this sort of thing cannot happen those wonderful bookies would not dream of doing anything like this, anyway lets have 6 months of bets so i can record them!!!

        1. I posted this last night on yesterday’s page…..

          “One thing that don’t make sense is that Mrs Hyde is on the positive market movers list. Opened up @ 7/4 and was backed in to 10/11. Whereas Humble Hero was on the drifters list. Opened @ 1/1 and went off @ 7/4.

          Only thing I can conclude is that it doesn’t necessarily depend upon market movement as to whether Skybet traders fancy it to win or not.”

          The point is that there appears to be more to it than just the market’s opinion, I think that SkyBet are receiving covert information from sources that aren’t market related.

          1. Tim
            gone on for years and they say the bookmakers spy network is better than MI6 and MI5 put together.
            Colin

    2. Many thanks to Colin and all the other posts on here. I do not have a clue about the “murky” world of exchanges. I do however remember flutter, i got 50 times my stake which was a modest £2 back then on Gingembre to win the Hennesey back in the day!
      I occasionally look at Betfair exchanges if i see a horse at odds miles better than what i think the SP will be, but, for me, it is personal thing, as is your betting and betting bank / how much you bet.
      I do this for fun and it is a hobby. If it was anything else I would have stopped years ago.
      I have won big and also lost big, but, as with all hobbies, you keep ploughing away and accept those up and down days.
      For me it is the thrill of picking a winner, or even as has been the case in the last few years since coming on here, looking at all the mix of charachters and how they analyse picking horses and joinig in with them and their joys / low spots.
      Every other blog i have seen out there screams “LOOK AT OUR WINNERS!”, on here it is “oh damn I`m having another losing run, but, overall I`m still in profit”, or, “I`ll pack up for a bit and come back after a rest”… It is refreshing and helps you gain focus with your own personal style of betting…It may not be for all and everyone is entitled to their opinion, but, surely we are all working to help each other out, not bickering about who said what to whom and then by what means, or, am I missing something and there are more sinister goings on here?

      1. Not sure there’s a danger of me shouting about all my winners anytime soon! gulp 🙂 One day, one day.

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