Members Daily Post: 16/01/19 (tipx1/complete)

Daily Tip x1 + write up , Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Newbury

1.10 – Percy Street  (all Hc’s and micro runs) I3 7/1 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

2.50 –

Mister Malarky  (all Hc’s)  w2 H1 I3 7/2 

Another Frontier  (m runs) 14/1 S2 

3.50 – Midnight Glance (NHF) 6/1 

 

Plumpton

2.00 – Brother Bennett (all Hc’s) I3  15/2 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

2.35 –

Three Star General  (m age) H3 I1 5/1 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Ruby Yeats (HcH) G1 15/2 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

3.10 –

Ballyheigue Bay  (m TJC)  ES+ 8/1 S3A 

Dylanseoghan (all Hc’s) I3 9/1 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

4.10 –

Light of Air (HcH) H1 G3 11/2 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Venetian Proposal   (all Hc’s) 9/1 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 0/2,1p, -2)

 

Daily Tips

2.50 Newb – Quarenta – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen) UP 9/2. Damn. Sadly no surprise given the times. That was run 16 seconds slow with a winner that sprinted clear, suggesting anything but good. I probably deserve that given forecast rain, so apologies, but will keep an eye on him. Given way winner won it probably didn’t make a difference but he has more good ground chases in him from that mark. The run wasn’t devoid of promise but he just didn’t pick up when asked. 

 

I can’t leave this one at 4s. I tipped him to victory LTO (yep, I can’t quite believe it either!) and given how he won there, I just couldn’t leave him against this lot at 4s. I think he should be fav, or certainly no bigger than Carlos. He could/should have won that race by 3l+, going away, and I think the 4lb rise is very lenient. He won a C3 handicap hurdle off 119 easily enough so i’m not concerned about the rise in class. I think he could go on to be a smart enough handicap chaser and is better than this mark. He travelled all over them at Warwick and jumped very well to my eyes. He got in a pocket for a time but was full of running approaching the second last, and the last. He was slow enough at that one against one who’d been well ridden. It’s a short run in at Warwick and he only just got up but if he’d had another 1/2 furlong he’d have stormed clear. The way he jumps/travels should be an asset around here, if in the same form, and Aidan takes the ride again. He runs as if he stays very well and he ideally wants ‘good’ in the going description. He won’t mind some rain, but i’ll assume it won’t be turning into a bog! It will likely be another loser if it does. I thought he was the one to beat. Carlos is short enough for one that has yet to win a chase but clearly the form of his race LTO has worked out well. He does have to prove his stamina also, as does Mister Malarkey and as such I think both are short enough. I couldn’t have the rest personally. Jonjo does well with LTO winners and he’s 1/12,3p in the last 14 days which is red hot form for him! Fingers crossed this one can take another step forward. 

 

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/136,63p, +19.8, 1 point win)

None today. I think En Meme Temps looks interesting enough, but backing 7/2< shots that have yet to win a race isn’t a wise long term strategy I don’t think- his head carriage would niggle at me.  I wouldn’t be shocked if he made all today but his price is short enough, and I want to see evidence that he can battle/get his head in front. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Richard Hobson (33/1< guide) 

1.40 – Discko Des Plages 50/1 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

3.10 P – Anteros 5/1 

Tom Lacey 

1.10 N – En Meme Temps 7/2 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

2.50 N – Mister Malarky 7/2 

2.50 N – Lord Bryan 12/1 

Trainers to Follow 

1.10 N – En Memem Temps  7/2 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update: Mid-Month – to follow

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

35 Responses

  1. Things are a bit slow at the moment so I thought I’d pass on some of my hard earned arrogant knowledge (still struggle with that smiley)

    I use geegeez and I have to say it saves me loads of time, I only bet hcaps so a quick load has all up on screen. I then go through each race on the pace button and eliminate all those races with no pace, once eliminated I never go back to these races. Pace is my main concern in a race and I’ve learnt the hard way that there’s no point in trying to read form when you have no idea of the pace. Over the years I’ve tried to be smart and bet the lone front runners, bet the same on betfair to hedge in running, lay the favourite in the race and lay any hold up horses. All strategies have come to sad losses for one simple reason, the jockeys haven’t a clue when the traps open and even the lone leader might have its tactics changed because of disappointing previous performances. Lone front runners have more chance the better the class of race and always remember, class 6 is no more than a dog race at Southend on a Saturday night in the old days. ( still cant do that smiley)

    Second task is checking the going by noting what the racing post says. I then log on to myweather2 and put in said racecourse, IE wincanton racecourse and make a judgement on the situation. I tend to be bolder for obvious reasons when conditions are more certain and leave things till the next day if there is any doubt. Any change in going should mean a downgrade in a bet as nobody knows what the going is. Josh mentioned sticky going the other day which should give you alarm bells. Of course you can ignore all this and leak money on a regular basis.

    These two small checks show how a race can be nothing like the form you read and why your selection runs so bad. However a bigger problem is following a mechanical system that takes none of this into account. Personally I would check these against what I’ve said and act accordingly, any doubt wait and follow the market, that 10/1 shot will drift to 20s so halving your stake.

    The instant expert on Geegeez can mark your card in this instance. So check pace and going before putting any cash down, bet if things fall in line, leave to drift otherwise.

    1. I too am a user of Geegeez Gold and find it most useful. It is important to run the query tool re trainers and courses etc.
      But what about taking into account why a trainer is running the horse in this race at this track now? Also why is the jockey riding it? Are they forced to or by choice etc? For instance why is Ryan Moore at Lingfield on Wednesday?
      And finally is the horse value at the price available? For instance what price would you take now on Native River to repeat his Gold Cup success?

      It is all part of the puzzle after the form etc has been studied.

    2. Chubnut wrote:- Lone front runners have more chance the better the class of race

      Couldn’t agree more. From my stat’s I would also like to add that the pace chart appears to be at it’s most accurate in terms of forecasting the likely order they will go off in early to mid way through the season. As to why this should be the case you can come to your own conclusions, but I believe it has everything to do with trainers seeking to have their handicap mark adjusted favourably once their horse has had a win or two and/or finds itself in a no win situation off its current mark.

      For a horse to win a race it has to be put in to the race. In some races it’s so obvious what is going on the horse might as well be running with a neon sign on its head, but is very rare we see a trainer penalised for effectively nobbling his own horse.

      1. I’m a recent subber to GGz and haven’t really had the time to absorb the guide and vids yet. These are the kind of posts that give me the proverbial kick needed to get my finger out. Cheers guys.

        Chubnut….for a smiley type : followed by – followed by ) and you get 🙂

        1. Geegeez Gold was voted best betting website in the Smart Betting Club awards for the third time in a row.

  2. Tips:

    Mid way through the month, +6.25 points. Flattered by a 20/1 winner.

    System selections:

    + 21.5 points, flattered by a 22/1 winner.

    Wednesday Tips:

    1.10 Newbury, I am going to go with that tricky customer Percy Street, 1 point each way at 7/1 BOG. Dropped in class with the Pipe team in form. If the horse is on a going day who knows?
    3.10 Plumpton, Peter Bowen sends Rupeera Tom to the course for the veterans race. The horse has only had 4 chase runs at age 11, has bottom weight and has Jamie Moore aboard. So 1 point each way at 12/1 BOG.

    Good luck.

  3. RT -26.25 SP -32.02
    250 Nb Horatio Hornblower 10/1
    120 Li Renegade Master 4/1
    225 Li Spare Parts 33/1
    300 Li Isaan Queen 13/2
    400 Li Swiss Cross 13/2
    310 Pl Ballyheigue Boy 8/1
    530 Ke Enzemble 7/1
    600 Ke Treacherous 11/2 & Soar Above 3/1
    700 Ke Roman Spinner 6/1 & Gentleman 12/1

  4. Morning, wasn`t going to venture out today, but, think we need our spirits lifting during all this B word bo###cks.
    So I will give you the entertainment.
    14:50 Newbury
    MR MALARKY 7/2 gen 1pt win
    Well Mr Tizzard always warrants respect in a staying chase of any type, this one has already been round Newbury lto, so, should know the course by now. I expect HC to hunt up my other selection and pounce late, he has the class to do this, just whether or not he is on a going day!
    POWERFUL SYMBOL 9/1 gen 1pt win
    I do not believe he is here just to be pace setter for the other Ben Pauling runner, if he gets his jumping together he is an accomplished front runner and i do believe Newbury will suit his running style, compared to his stablemate, who is short enough, his odds are way too big and at 9/1 or over represents value!

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you pick today.

    1. Stewart
      You are welcome to your opinion which i am sure some will agree with you and many will agree with my views,however if you have to resort to offensive language please have the good grace and manners to direct the post to me direct, much appreciated.
      Wish you all the best with your two bets and hope one wins.
      Cheers
      Colin

      1. Hi Colin, I thought Stewart was referring the ‘B word bo###cks’ to Brexit but maybe I’ve missed something here, I did get up very late today!!

    2. Stewart
      My apologies for sure Chris was right B for Brexit,afraid to much rushing around at the moment had Opticians this morning and solicitors this afternoon, not engaging brain at the moment mind you i never do.
      Cheers
      Colin

      1. Its ok Colin I missed all the before and afters on this. It was indeed B for Brexit, not anything else. I am of an age now where if I have to say something to someone i will ,but, there was no intention of pointing that in anyone’s direction, just a throwaway comment on our political plight!

  5. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT+1.11

    Mumgos Debut returned a 5/2 winner.

    No bets today.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT-1.42

    Early du Lemo returned an 11/4 winner.

    1pt win 1.10 N – Percy Street
    1pt win 3.50 N – The Macon Lugnatic

    Will settle to 10am odds

    1. Francis
      Well done after a dodgy start you seem to be moving forward and 3 winners today lucky you could have done with one.
      Cheers
      Colin

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    N 2.50 – Powerful Symbol on 1st run @ 12
    3m
    P 3.10 – Millanisi Boy on 3rd run @ 7
    ………..Ballyheigue Bay on 3rd run @ 8
    GL

  7. COLINS BETS
    Kempton
    6.00 Madrinho BOG 7/1
    6.30 Bernie’s Boy BOG 9/1

    ELITE BETS
    1.10 Newbury Percy Street BOG 8/1
    2.25 Lingfield Critical Thinking BOG 5/1

    1. Unlucky with Colin’s bets again. A second and madrinho would have gone close too with a clear run. Keep plugging away!

      1. Thanks Francis backed myself for many years and this is my worst January for years plenty of time for it to turnaround most are backed so still on the right lines just, strongly fancied Bernie’s Boy but not to be.

  8. Today’s maybe’s……

    Newb’ 2.25 Charming Zen….. 6.6
    Ling’ 3.00 Deep Intrigue….. 6.0 (notice this one has just been bashed in, but will leave it up in case it drifts back).

    Back at 4.00 with the Kempton update.

  9. Sky Bet price boost yesterday only saw one 1.50 Newcastle Jammin Masters 8/11 to 5/6 did go off at 4/5 and for the layers they won.
    Today only one i will see for off to solicitors will time
    3.00 Lingfield James Sreet 6/5 to 11/8 will see if they are right again in UK 2 out of 2 so far

    Do not back to lay yet for not enough research yet, could be more later but will not see any till Kempton for me.

    Colin

    1. James street went down to Deep Intrigue, one that I put up earlier, (but didn’t make the odds). So is 3/3 now, just wondering if this could end up being a possible angle into a race with a false fav’.

      Interesting stuff Colin.

      1. Tim
        no price boost from Kempton tonight for they are showing the 8.00 only look at an horses which they push out not into win by 2 lengths etc.
        Will only note England, Scotland and Wales race courses for not a great fan of Irish Racing.
        It is interesting because the 3 i have noted have been short priced fav which have been turned over.
        Will never be a method that can be put up in advance for normally they only put them up about 20/25 mins before race.
        Today could have missed some this afternoon for being out and about.
        Sky Bet certainly appear to know or have a good idea that they cannot win have noticed this over the past months but not recorded them will do now.
        Good winner today did you not back it what are the results of the ones your are putting up ignoring the price guide are they showing a profit,not keen on price sensitive for you only need a late n/r price crashes do not back and wins.
        Cheers
        Colin

        1. I didn’t realise that SkyBet only put them up so close to post time. I know a lot of the others put them up earlier which makes me wonder if Skybet are looking at the betting patterns throughout the day before deciding whether to offer it on a particular race or not.

          As for the winner I put up, it never traded at or above the 6.0 after being backed in just as I was putting them up. At the moment they are down a couple of points on the month but I find they tend to bob around the break even mark in the long term. It really is only intended as a guide and a means of keeping score.

        2. I seem to recall it used to be a strategy of someone on here to lay Skybets boosts in the morning didnt it ?

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