Members Daily Post: 14/01/19 (complete)

Tipsx3, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Ffos Las

3.05 –

Atomic Rumble   (micro TJC)  ES+ I3 15/2 S3A S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)   

Golden Whisky   (HcH, m’s dist,age and Hcdeb)  ES+ 15/2 S3A WON 15/2> 

3.40 –

Fille des Champs   (m Hcdeb)  w2 I3 14/1 S2 S5 UP

Agent Memphis   (m TJC) 14,30  ES+ G3 15/2 S3A S1 3rd 10/1 

 

Fontwell

1.20 –

Kentford Heiress   (m TJC) 20/1 S2A UP

Bang On   (all Hc’s)  w2 H3 I3 G1 8/1 S4 UP

My Brother   (HcH)  ES+ I3 4/1 S3A UP

2.25 – Day of Roses   (all Hc’s)  w1 H3 4/1 UP

3.25 –

Clondaw Westie   (HcCh)  w2 H3 G3 4/1 UP

Native Robin   (all Hc’s)  w2 H1 I1 G1 5/2 S4 UP

4.00 – Morning Sequel   (HcH, m dist)  ES+ 22/1 S2A S3A UP

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 0/2,1p, -2)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/136,63p, +19.8, 1 point win)

1.20 Font – Bang On – 8/1 (gen) UP 6/1 

3.25 Font – Clondaw Westie – 9/2 (gen) UP 4/1 

3.40 FL – Misty Mai – 8/1 (gen) UP 7/2 

that’s all, 09.39, write ups…

 

Bang On – well maybe this race is about whether the fav stays – he’s being backed as if that’s not in doubt, but it’s a question he has to answer. Clearly there should be more to come from him this season and his return was decent, given the race. But, he’s a 6/4 fav now with stamina to prove. That would maybe indicate that this one is a decent EW bet, but that’s rarely my approach although those of you who are wiser than I may decide to do just that. From a mark of 116 I still think he is well handicapped, and on only his second handicap start he’s clearly open to further progress as some point. I think he’s well handicapped based on that Bangor novice run where the top 5, inc him, have won 6 races between them since, most now rated 120/125+. 8s did feel too big given his profile and the fact he now runs at a track where the trainer does very well, and even more so when NS has been booked. He should race prominently and should give me a run for my money. The main question is why he ran the way he did LTO, and why should he do better here. Well, if you take out the fav who the market suggests could still have plenty in hand, this is a much weaker race than that to my eyes. It was also his 3rd run within 30 days and I do wonder if it came too soon. I also think there’s a chance they went too hard up front. Him and the Newland horse were locked together for most of the way and upped the pace down the back. Most of the others were being shoved along at that point. These two faded after the first up the straight and those that were more patiently ridden came to the fore. Those two factors could be a valid excuse for that run. Of course it could be that a mark of 116 overestimates his ability, but the jury is out on that and at 8/1 i’ll take a chance. He shouldn’t be too far away here and that looked overpriced. I thought Mulholland’s maybe the right price, or certainly wasn’t too big – he’s got a bit to prove over hurdles now but that Cheltenham race has worked out OK, and this extra yardage may bring about improvement. He can be held up, and hasn’t been the most fluent of jumpers as yet. Mulholland’s string ‘could’ be about to burst into life, having had a very quiet time up until recent days. 

Clondaw Westie- this poor horse has the weight of my expectation on him today. If I believed in ‘naps’ he’s be it. I thought he should be favourite in this line up, 9/2 was too big, so was 4/1. He was ultra progressive earlier in the year and there should be more to come this season. The horse he beat at Huntingdon was OR 119, and won his next star, and I think this one could still be well handicapped/have more to come. He made a pleasing return at Sandown, in a better race, over a trip too short. Plenty of the Hill’s horses can come on for the run and I thought that was a decent return. Darebin was just in front of him there, and he won NTO. He drops in class here, back up in trip and returns to a track where he’s won. Good to Soft was fine at Huntingdon, and he somewhat sprinted away after the last there, so I won’t be using the ground as an excuse. He clearly enjoys much softer also, but on what he’s done, you can’t say he doesn’t handle this going. This is one of Hill’s target tracks, trainer/jockey have a very good record here, this one will race prominently, jump well, and looks the one to beat if resuming last season’s progress. Native Robin may be a worthy fav but he isn’t overpriced. I won’t be shocked if he wins as he’s consistent but he’s now open to attack from anything with more up it’s sleeve. I can’t have Night of Sin at those odds- the trip wasn’t the excuse for his last run and he just has too many questions for me, in the context of his price. Mortens Leam has been running well but may want further and is another who could now be in the grip of the handicapper. I’m convinced this race is about whether the selection runs his race/up to his best. I expected to see him put in at 5/2, 3/1 given his form. Time will tell whether i’ve read that right. 

Misty Mai – I missed the 10s but thought 8s, or even 7s, was still too big here. The main eye catcher is the fact Sean Bowen is back on for the first time this season, having won on her twice before, and back to a track that she’s won at also. Her trainer is also in the best form he’s been in for a while, with 3 winners in the last month, 2 in the last 14 days. She drops back into a C4 here, which is her class (0/6,0p C3+) , and within the space of five runs her mark has gone from 117 to 102, which is now 6lb below the mark she bolted up on at Hereford last March. Her run LTO was better than is appears on paper i think and was a clear step forward. James Bowen moved her up and pushed the pace down the back straight, and I think that took it’s toll in the end. I wouldn’t be surprised if she was working up to peak fitness either for a return to here. The trip is the question – and why you’d want a decent price. I think it will be fine as there’s a chance plenty of these just don’t run their race. I also think this means that Sean will be aggressive on her- I think he will try and make all or sit off Bennys Girl if she goes forward- if he gets to the front at any point in this race, and is going the pace he wants, I’d like to hope that will be game over. She is unexposed over this trip and hopefully in soft and in this class/the oppo, it won’t happen too quickly. I’d be surprised if Sean hold up her, especially with the money coming. Her price was just too big, win lose or draw, and with 10 handicap chase runs she’s not exactly overly exposed/on the downgrade. The rest have plenty of questions although I wouldn’t put anyone off change on Bennys Girl at 8s. She has a bit to find on the selection on ratings, but of course that assumes she’ll run her race – this one was ahead of her at Hereford, and is no forlorn hope. Given the drop back to ‘her’ distance here, I suspect they will be handy also. She is 11, thought lightly raced, but will run her race I suspect. That can’t be said for a few others. I can leave the fav at that price which seems short for a horse who’s yet to win under rules, but is unexposed over fences. She may win, but I have to take her on at the odds. Plenty of questions to answer for that one. The Bailey horse needs the visor to work wonders – his jumping was awful when last seen, and I’ll happily keep a watching brief, and the rest have enough questions also. The Williams horse is unexposed over fences but the hunch is that the handicapper may have her, and she didn’t show too much on her first run over fences LTO. She’s got a big weight to lug around here in soft also, and I’d like to think something will be better handicapped. Quantum of Solace – she’ll no doubt bolt up having tipped her LTO when I think she would have won had her starting position been further forward. She is a keen sort, hence why they try and hold onto her. Soft is the big question, and as such at the price I can watch. She looks short given the chase questions now stacking up. 

Hopefully three live chances there. I could do with a winner! 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

3.40 FL – Quantum of Solace 3/1 2nd 

4.15 FL – Cage of Fear 8/1 UP

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO Winning Hurdlers 

3.05 FL- Gone Platinum 10/3 2nd 

Jockeys/Chasers

2.25 Font – Cucklington 4/1 2nd 

3.40 FL – Misty Mai 10/1 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

91 Responses

  1. Update on Colins and Elite bets

    Colins bets Bookmaker SP -15.25 BOG – 9.50 after starting January with 17 losers and the following 11 bets have produced 3 winners, do not know why January is proving difficult for not doing anything different and the potential bets that i eliminate are not winning bar the odd one,still plenty of time to have a winning month.
    Elite bets Bookmakers SP -3.41 BOG + 2.75 after starting January with 9 losers and the following 16 bets produced 5 winners, still waiting for the 20/1 to 40/1, the last 2 years there as been a 40/1 winner on each occasion.
    NEW and Old members just a few pointers which may help if deciding to back alongside me.
    COLINS BETS
    1 Must have a bank of 100 times your stakes for on odd occasions there as been up to 30 losers,so when this arrives you have only lost 30% of the bank and still have 70% or 70 bets left so no need to panic.
    2 All bets are 1 point win for me you may wish to do them EW but my records will only show win only at Bookmakers SP and BOG again at least 2 bookmakers must show the price before i will claim it.
    3 Below is a way to increase your stakes without having to increase your original BANK,to show you how this works started backing Nick on the 1st March 2018 to the stake of £20 per bet or a bank of £2000 and now i am up to £60 per bet and only back win only so plenty of losing runs.
    All my bets and Nicks are placed on Betfair Exchanges at SP for no longer have access to bookmakers
    Bank of £1000 or 100 bets at £10
    £10 bet when bank increase to £1500 your new stake is £15
    £15 bet when bank increases to £2000 your new stake is £20
    £20 bet when bank increases to £2500 your new stake is £25
    £25 etc etc
    So you can build up to a stake which suits you and you are only risking your original bank of £1000 on this example,you cannot withdraw any funds when on a good run for the poor run is just around the corner,however say you are happy with £50 bets or £5000 withdraw half and reduce stake to £25 and rebuild the bank.
    Sorry if this sounds a little to simple but over 16 months since i started putting up Colins bets totally amazed how many discount BANKS and do not keep records
    4 All above is for Elite bets as well as Colins bets so you need 2 banks each of 100 points and keep them separate.
    5 There is no guarantee that i will win again this year but will be doing my best for i back every one of the bets what i put up on RTP.
    Hope this helps you and remember whoever you wish to follow on Josh’s wonderful Club you must have suitable banks.
    Cheers
    Colin

    1. Hope you don’t mind me saying this but I think that’s far too quick to go in stakes and would certainly recommend people have far bigger bankroll in between going up in stakes. I would at the very least have a minimum of 200 pts PROFIT per stake before going up. So using your example go to 15 when you’ve made £3,000, to 20 when you’ve made £4,000 etc. Personally I go even slower than that. The other thing you consider is the mental side when you go up very quickly and suddenly have a 50 pt losing run where you’ve effectively lost 50% of your profit using your suggestion. You want to make yourself insensitive to losing days that it doesn’t effect your frame of mind.

      1. The Great British Bank Off. Each to their own but the psychological point is key as we all know and has been discussed. You have to be financially insensitive to losing runs and in general I suppose, and that’s really hard. I can see both sides and especially if you’re inexperienced or new to racing then slower is always better. There is always a danger you have a decent winning run on low stakes, raise them too quick and then hit an expected losing run that depletes your bank quicker than you would like. And that impacts mentally , sometimes leasing to betting bigger to try and get those losses back. Then disaster.

        I don’t think we should forget that for many this a a hobby and having fun and enjoying the challenge is fundamental. We will all be on different scales as to at which end is more important , some on the hobby end, others on the financial/investment end … I think not losing money over time is key to enjoying the sport to some degree. But some will treat the game like a hobby and be habby to lose budget X in any given season, like having a membership to a golf club or whatever.
        There are no right or wrongs on those points made, in my mind. Part of this game is about exploring an approach which suits you. You have to be prepared for losers and can hopefully start in a place where the losses don’t matter financially , if hitting losing runs early! 🙂 Gulp. Racing is a broad church, especially on matters such as this.
        As long as you can get to a place where you can enjoy watching the sport week after week, season after season, that’s a decent foundation.

        1. I would go up and down stakes at every 50 points of profit or loss myself. But as long as you do not go up too quickly, as Sensai Nick says, you should be OK. The bank would be best at 200 + points I would say but 100 would seem an absolute minimum.
          If things are not going well you can always share your methodologies/systems here with the RTP family and we will help.

        2. Josh
          Like the GULP wish i could do smiley faces on the computer.
          Partly agree with hobby but why do so many waste their money joining the Sharks(this one is for you Tim HA HA not doubt the animal rights brigade will be on my back now!!!) to try to get rich and once they pay them say £1200 a year they believe that on £20 stakes they will make money in most cases they would struggle to get the membership fee back.
          Did put up working on my own bets, which i know then i am happy to work on a bank of 100.
          Did put up, so you can build up to a stake which suits you and you are only risking your original bank of £1000 on this Example.
          Nothing that i have put up is cast in stone it is for the individual to decide their stake and bank that they can afford it is just a guide to show from reasonably small stakes you can build up to £100 plus stakes on a bank of £1000 in time.
          Francis kindly worked out how much money would needed in the bank for my figures last year to late to dig them out but it was a staggering £800,000 for the interest to make whatever the figures were, so the bank builder should be in any punters thoughts.
          going to have a couple of glasses of red
          Cheers
          Colin

          1. Why don’t you just call them what they are Colin? There is no need to liken them to sharks or cowboys when we all know that in truth the words you are looking for can only describe them at best as deceitful con’ men, or at their worst theiving criminals. It’s as simple as that!

            There’s no need to dress it up by attempting to draw poor comparisons with wild animals doing what they do by nature or cowboys pursuing an honest living.

            English is recognised as a great language all around the world, the least we can do is use it correctly.

          2. Hi Tim
            This is obviously a sensitive issue for you over the animals for myself it is not and having ridden horses and groomed them, have competed for the RAF over show jumping and cross country,ridden race horses on the gallops and the last one i rode was Tyson who stood at 17 hands only stopped ridding when my hips started playing up 20 years ago.
            Do not wish to upset you never would but must respond to you English Recognized(my collins dictionary says this is the correct spelling Ha Ha just a joke) as a great language all around the world, least we can do is use it correctly.
            American English is so different to ours in spelling alone and many British products have had to change the brand name for the American market.
            Canadian company had dental burs called Beavers which always caused a great laugh when the the nurse would say can i show my Beaver, so i could find the right design.
            Interesting to hear that you go over their to ride, never done that and their saddles are built for comfort are they not.
            Cheers
            Colin

      2. Agree the larger the bank far better mine is only a guide to show how you can build up from an original bank that you can afford to lose and you can start off with £100 staking £1 or £200 staking £1 or £300 staking £1 per bet but it would be slow to build up.
        Working on my own bets my longest losing run over the years is around 30 again that is only 30 bets leaving 70 bets in hand and that is the longest losing run and lets be honest if you lose a bank of 100 its time to pack up or in my case would start another bank.
        So totally agree the larger the bank the better but the trouble is little Tommy wants new shoes will take it out my betting bank the a long losing run appears stop betting then notice the tipster is on a good run dive in again with a reduced bank just in time for another losing run.

      3. Your last sentence there Nick is one of the most important things to remember and to be constantly aware of but not to be confused with feeling numb!

        I think betting banks are to a certain degree subjective and both Nick and Colin provide wise words.

        1. Thanks Chris afraid i feel that i am banging my head against a wall, tell me why do you bet so i can give my hard earned money to those lovely bookies so they can live in a life of luxury.
          Wrong answer everyone who places a bet whether how small or how big are hoping to win so why not have the security of a safety net called a betting bank,how many times in the bookies really fancied that after it won of course but had already lost my money.
          Lastly for i am done 4/5 years ago Betfair informed me that they only had 4% winners on their books and the exchange want winners says it all to me.
          Cheers
          Colin

      1. Hi Robin
        No connection let me explain briefly.
        I985 left RAF started work for a Dental company started working South Yorkshire and Barnsley.
        Joined Surewin as a member,then found their address in Barnsley area and decided to give them a call for my experience with alleged tipsters who do not show results and like most things in Racing and gambling have never been accountable one MP over the last few weeks it was announced that has had £70,000 in benefits ie Football,wimbledon tickets and boxes for Racing venues, over 50% of the benefits came from bookmakers this is just one MP no wonder the bookmakers have got away with so much.
        In the end monthly would pop in for a cup of tea with the owner Roger whose real name was Roy and learned so much about underhand and lying tipsters for Surewin was a relay agent buying tipsters phone lines and then relaying the tips on to their membership at a reduced rate and in their day would relay up to 30 tipsters,could go on for ever one day Roy told me about one company still on the go had called to see him threatening to send in the heavies to smash his offices up,Roy stopped relaying this service.

        Having known Roy for over 30 years and trusting him it was a not an hard decision to let Surewin back me on my first tipping line and he insisted that i use my own name,it certainly hurt when he took 50%, all i had to do was just email him my bets and they did all the promotions and sending out my bets,and monthly would receive my cheque and always remember my first after a 3 month trial had subscribers and i had a cheque for £1000.

        My connection with Surewin was Friendship moving onto to a working relationship.
        Surewin was Sold so do not know if it is still on the go or not,times have moved on, through my knowledge and experience and passion for the horse and racing trying to stop anyone going down the same avenue of corrupt tipsters and in most cases they are.

        RTP and Josh you have a fantastic club a guy who works so hard an has an abundance of honesty and integrity, so don’t waste money joining tipsters to be disappointed and your bank balance reduced.
        This is general to anyone who reads it and is not directed to you only Robin.
        Cheers
        Colin
        This was the brief version or what Ha Ha.

  2. Hi Colin,

    Many thanks. As a pretty new (to the Site) person just want to say how much i appreciate this and your (and other guys) efforts. Today was good, i did your Colin’s one as usual, small stakes and got the Winner. First time i ve had only 2 bets on my ‘choices to follow’ since i started with the Site. All the best and keep well. 🙂

  3. Tips:
    1.20 FP, Flo’s Boy Sam, 16/1 now, 1 point each way. Tizzard and Cobden team up here. The trainer has good course form. The horse has struggled a bit the last two runs but on a going day is up to this level and is towards the bottom of the weights. Looks value at 12/1 +.
    2.55 FP, Brigade Of Guards, 15/2 now, 1 point each way. Looks value each way against the Hobbs odds on shot. Drops in class here. The horse may well be suited by this step up in distance here.

    Good luck.

    1. having already backed the section 1 qualifiers and having a £8 risk free bet on b365 for the 1-20 iv’e stuck it on your pick @18-1 if it wins big thank you if not nothing lost 🙂

  4. full result update:
    2018 final results. staked 165.5 pts , returns 227.8 pts , up 62.3 pts.
    2019 to date. staked 28 pts, returns 17.95 pts , down 10.05 pts

  5. today’s selections.
    Ffos Las 1-30. Filatore 18-1
    Ffos Las 3-05. Maguires Glen 14-1 b365 4 places
    Fontwell 4-00. Flanagans Field 8-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

    1. i have had a small saver on Martabot 8-1 in the FL 3-05 has run pretty well in his 2 runs since a wind op

  6. Update on Colins and Elite bets

    Colins bets Bookmaker SP -15.25 BOG – 9.50 after starting January with 17 losers and the following 11 bets have produced 3 winners, do not know why January is proving difficult for not doing anything different and the potential bets that i eliminate are not winning bar the odd one,still plenty of time to have a winning month.
    Elite bets Bookmakers SP -3.41 BOG + 2.75 after starting January with 9 losers and the following 16 bets produced 5 winners, still waiting for the 20/1 to 40/1, the last 2 years there as been a 40/1 winner on each occasion.
    NEW and Old members just a few pointers which may help if deciding to back alongside me.
    COLINS BETS
    1 Must have a bank of 100 times your stakes for on odd occasions there as been up to 30 losers,so when this arrives you have only lost 30% of the bank and still have 70% or 70 bets left so no need to panic.
    2 All bets are 1 point win for me you may wish to do them EW but my records will only show win only at Bookmakers SP and BOG again at least 2 bookmakers must show the price before i will claim it.
    3 Below is a way to increase your stakes without having to increase your original BANK,to show you how this works started backing Nick on the 1st March 2018 to the stake of £20 per bet or a bank of £2000 and now i am up to £60 per bet and only back win only so plenty of losing runs.
    All my bets and Nicks are placed on Betfair Exchanges at SP for no longer have access to bookmakers
    Bank of £1000 or 100 bets at £10
    £10 bet when bank increase to £1500 your new stake is £15
    £15 bet when bank increases to £2000 your new stake is £20
    £20 bet when bank increases to £2500 your new stake is £25
    £25 etc etc
    So you can build up to a stake which suits you and you are only risking your original bank of £1000 on this example,you cannot withdraw any funds when on a good run for the poor run is just around the corner,however say you are happy with £50 bets or £5000 withdraw half and reduce stake to £25 and rebuild the bank.
    Sorry if this sounds a little to simple but over 16 months since i started putting up Colins bets totally amazed how many discount BANKS and do not keep records
    4 All above is for Elite bets as well as Colins bets so you need 2 banks each of 100 points and keep them separate.
    5 There is no guarantee that i will win again this year but will be doing my best for i back every one of the bets what i put up on RTP.
    Hope this helps you and remember whoever you wish to follow on Josh’s wonderful Club you must have suitable banks.
    Cheers
    Colin

    1. Hope you don’t mind me saying this but I think that’s far too quick to go in stakes and would certainly recommend people have far bigger bankroll in between going up in stakes. I would at the very least have a minimum of 200 pts PROFIT per stake before going up. So using your example go to 15 when you’ve made £3,000, to 20 when you’ve made £4,000 etc. Personally I go even slower than that. The other thing you consider is the mental side when you go up very quickly and suddenly have a 50 pt losing run where you’ve effectively lost 50% of your profit using your suggestion. You want to make yourself insensitive to losing days that it doesn’t effect your frame of mind.

      1. The Great British Bank Off. Each to their own but the psychological point is key as we all know and has been discussed. You have to be financially insensitive to losing runs and in general I suppose, and that’s really hard. I can see both sides and especially if you’re inexperienced or new to racing then slower is always better. There is always a danger you have a decent winning run on low stakes, raise them too quick and then hit an expected losing run that depletes your bank quicker than you would like. And that impacts mentally , sometimes leasing to betting bigger to try and get those losses back. Then disaster.

        I don’t think we should forget that for many this a a hobby and having fun and enjoying the challenge is fundamental. We will all be on different scales as to at which end is more important , some on the hobby end, others on the financial/investment end … I think not losing money over time is key to enjoying the sport to some degree. But some will treat the game like a hobby and be habby to lose budget X in any given season, like having a membership to a golf club or whatever.
        There are no right or wrongs on those points made, in my mind. Part of this game is about exploring an approach which suits you. You have to be prepared for losers and can hopefully start in a place where the losses don’t matter financially , if hitting losing runs early! 🙂 Gulp. Racing is a broad church, especially on matters such as this.
        As long as you can get to a place where you can enjoy watching the sport week after week, season after season, that’s a decent foundation.

        1. I would go up and down stakes at every 50 points of profit or loss myself. But as long as you do not go up too quickly, as Sensai Nick says, you should be OK. The bank would be best at 200 + points I would say but 100 would seem an absolute minimum.
          If things are not going well you can always share your methodologies/systems here with the RTP family and we will help.

        2. Josh
          Like the GULP wish i could do smiley faces on the computer.
          Partly agree with hobby but why do so many waste their money joining the Sharks(this one is for you Tim HA HA not doubt the animal rights brigade will be on my back now!!!) to try to get rich and once they pay them say £1200 a year they believe that on £20 stakes they will make money in most cases they would struggle to get the membership fee back.
          Did put up working on my own bets, which i know then i am happy to work on a bank of 100.
          Did put up, so you can build up to a stake which suits you and you are only risking your original bank of £1000 on this Example.
          Nothing that i have put up is cast in stone it is for the individual to decide their stake and bank that they can afford it is just a guide to show from reasonably small stakes you can build up to £100 plus stakes on a bank of £1000 in time.
          Francis kindly worked out how much money would needed in the bank for my figures last year to late to dig them out but it was a staggering £800,000 for the interest to make whatever the figures were, so the bank builder should be in any punters thoughts.
          going to have a couple of glasses of red
          Cheers
          Colin

          1. Thanks Ken
            colon-) did not work, asked my son some time ago and he said that cannot do smiley faces on my computer becoming an antique like me,so will have to stick with !!! or HaHa.
            Cheers
            Colin

          2. Why don’t you just call them what they are Colin? There is no need to liken them to sharks or cowboys when we all know that in truth the words you are looking for can only describe them at best as deceitful con’ men, or at their worst theiving criminals. It’s as simple as that!

            There’s no need to dress it up by attempting to draw poor comparisons with wild animals doing what they do by nature or cowboys pursuing an honest living.

            English is recognised as a great language all around the world, the least we can do is use it correctly.

          3. blessed are the sharks ……… sssshhhhhh … what did he say ?? …………i dunno blessed are the cheese makers ….. i think ??
            🙂 .. not a lot else to say on a days racing like this .. lol 🙂 .. u gotta laugh !! 🙂 or in colin’s termonologicalness .. semi colon end bracket 😉

          4. George
            that sounds rather painful semi colon end bracket nothing to do with the use of cameras where the sun does not shine, cue smiley faces 3 should be enough,wait a minute cannot do them have to settle for !!! and 2 Ha Ha that makes 3.
            Racing is poor again and i like the AW, for December and January so far have not been inspired by it and it is nothing to do with betting, mind you Martin Colwell would disagree for he has been flying……… was it Mexico smiley faces time 3 again.
            Talking of flying whats happened to Dee on the free post for he was flying from 9th December to 22nd December posting 63 bets with 10 winners with a profit + 40.5 at SP, after checking my records more smiley faces.
            Dee was looking good and had hoped he would be back after the Christmas break and dare i say it had my bank ready and waiting for 1st January Ha Ha Ha
            Need to start a campaign on Free Post come back Dee.
            Cheers
            Colin

          5. Hi Tim
            This is obviously a sensitive issue for you over the animals for myself it is not and having ridden horses and groomed them, have competed for the RAF over show jumping and cross country,ridden race horses on the gallops and the last one i rode was Tyson who stood at 17 hands only stopped ridding when my hips started playing up 20 years ago.
            Do not wish to upset you never would but must respond to you English Recognized(my collins dictionary says this is the correct spelling Ha Ha just a joke) as a great language all around the world, least we can do is use it correctly.
            American English is so different to ours in spelling alone and many British products have had to change the brand name for the American market.
            Canadian company had dental burs called Beavers which always caused a great laugh when the the nurse would say can i show my Beaver, so i could find the right design.
            Interesting to hear that you go over their to ride, never done that and their saddles are built for comfort are they not.
            Cheers
            Colin

          6. Colin…. it’s not a sensitive issue for me. As I told you yesterday I’m not a PC person. I just prefer people to tell it like it is. So if you feel that these so called ‘tipsters’ are not genuine and are really deceitful bastards preying on the desperate whilst masquerading as the punter’s champion, just say so. It is justified because that is exactly what they are. There is no need to insert poor analogies with animals or horsemen that only appear to serve to distract the reader from that which you are really trying to say.

            I bought an American Quarter horse about 30 years ago and after that I was hooked. Sold my English horses and never looked back. I went over there originally to pick up advanced training and riding techniques so as I could improve my action but ended up going back several times. Made a lot of good friends out there.

          7. Tim, is there any group mentioned in common colloquial English that you are not prepared to take offence on behalf of? This is a racing blog not an English usage website, and it is a bit off to call people out on their turns of phrase, unless they are abusive. So please stop telling us how to express ourselves and stick to picking winners for which I salute you.

          8. I’d have thought that likening a bunch of con men and criminals to honest horsemen is abusive Mark. One thing is for sure is that I’m certain that no one would say such a thing in their presence. It wouldn’t go down well that’s for sure. So just make sure you take out a good travel insurance policy if you ever plan to visit them.

      2. Agree the larger the bank far better mine is only a guide to show how you can build up from an original bank that you can afford to lose and you can start off with £100 staking £1 or £200 staking £1 or £300 staking £1 per bet but it would be slow to build up.
        Working on my own bets my longest losing run over the years is around 30 again that is only 30 bets leaving 70 bets in hand and that is the longest losing run and lets be honest if you lose a bank of 100 its time to pack up or in my case would start another bank.
        So totally agree the larger the bank the better but the trouble is little Tommy wants new shoes will take it out my betting bank the a long losing run appears stop betting then notice the tipster is on a good run dive in again with a reduced bank just in time for another losing run.

      3. Your last sentence there Nick is one of the most important things to remember and to be constantly aware of but not to be confused with feeling numb!

        I think betting banks are to a certain degree subjective and both Nick and Colin provide wise words.

        1. Thanks Chris afraid i feel that i am banging my head against a wall, tell me why do you bet so i can give my hard earned money to those lovely bookies so they can live in a life of luxury.
          Wrong answer everyone who places a bet whether how small or how big are hoping to win so why not have the security of a safety net called a betting bank,how many times in the bookies really fancied that after it won of course but had already lost my money.
          Lastly for i am done 4/5 years ago Betfair informed me that they only had 4% winners on their books and the exchange want winners says it all to me.
          Cheers
          Colin

      1. Hi Robin
        No connection let me explain briefly.
        I985 left RAF started work for a Dental company started working South Yorkshire and Barnsley.
        Joined Surewin as a member,then found their address in Barnsley area and decided to give them a call for my experience with alleged tipsters who do not show results and like most things in Racing and gambling have never been accountable one MP over the last few weeks it was announced that has had £70,000 in benefits ie Football,wimbledon tickets and boxes for Racing venues, over 50% of the benefits came from bookmakers this is just one MP no wonder the bookmakers have got away with so much.
        In the end monthly would pop in for a cup of tea with the owner Roger whose real name was Roy and learned so much about underhand and lying tipsters for Surewin was a relay agent buying tipsters phone lines and then relaying the tips on to their membership at a reduced rate and in their day would relay up to 30 tipsters,could go on for ever one day Roy told me about one company still on the go had called to see him threatening to send in the heavies to smash his offices up,Roy stopped relaying this service.

        Having known Roy for over 30 years and trusting him it was a not an hard decision to let Surewin back me on my first tipping line and he insisted that i use my own name,it certainly hurt when he took 50%, all i had to do was just email him my bets and they did all the promotions and sending out my bets,and monthly would receive my cheque and always remember my first after a 3 month trial had subscribers and i had a cheque for £1000.

        My connection with Surewin was Friendship moving onto to a working relationship.
        Surewin was Sold so do not know if it is still on the go or not,times have moved on, through my knowledge and experience and passion for the horse and racing trying to stop anyone going down the same avenue of corrupt tipsters and in most cases they are.

        RTP and Josh you have a fantastic club a guy who works so hard an has an abundance of honesty and integrity, so don’t waste money joining tipsters to be disappointed and your bank balance reduced.
        This is general to anyone who reads it and is not directed to you only Robin.
        Cheers
        Colin
        This was the brief version or what Ha Ha.

  7. Hi Colin,

    Many thanks. As a pretty new (to the Site) person just want to say how much i appreciate this and your (and other guys) efforts. Today was good, i did your Colin’s one as usual, small stakes and got the Winner. First time i ve had only 2 bets on my ‘choices to follow’ since i started with the Site. All the best and keep well. 🙂

  8. RT 365 BOG -23.25 SP -29.02
    110 Pun Bog War 20/1
    225 Fon Midnight Bliss 3/1 & Day of Roses 5/1
    325 Fon Native Robin 9/4
    305 Fos Maguires Glen 16/1
    340 Fos Misty Mai 10/1
    515 Wol Indian Affair 16/1
    715 Wol Mythical Madness 9/4

  9. Tips:
    1.20 FP, Flo’s Boy Sam, 16/1 now, 1 point each way. Tizzard and Cobden team up here. The trainer has good course form. The horse has struggled a bit the last two runs but on a going day is up to this level and is towards the bottom of the weights. Looks value at 12/1 +.
    2.55 FP, Brigade Of Guards, 15/2 now, 1 point each way. Looks value each way against the Hobbs odds on shot. Drops in class here. The horse may well be suited by this step up in distance here.

    Good luck.

    1. having already backed the section 1 qualifiers and having a £8 risk free bet on b365 for the 1-20 iv’e stuck it on your pick @18-1 if it wins big thank you if not nothing lost 🙂

  10. RT 365 BOG -23.25 SP -29.02
    110 Pun Bog War 20/1
    225 Fon Midnight Bliss 3/1 & Day of Roses 5/1
    325 Fon Native Robin 9/4
    305 Fos Maguires Glen 16/1
    340 Fos Misty Mai 10/1
    515 Wol Indian Affair 16/1
    715 Wol Mythical Madness 9/4

  11. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT-0.39

    No bets today. Dimple was a winner yesterday +2.61 after rule 4.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT-1.17

    2 pt win 1.20 Fontwell – My brother 4/1
    1 pt win 1.20 Fontwell – Rough Night 10/1

    Will settle to 10am odds

    choochoobugaloo hacked up yday but -0.5 on the day.

  12. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    F 4.00 – glimpse of Gold on 3rd run @4
    Festival
    F 2.25 – Robinroyale on 5th run @ 12
    GL

  13. Willow May 15/2 – 1.30 Ffos Las
    On handicap debut after 3 runs with a conditional, Lizzie Kelly steps up, who is already forging a good relationship with this new trainer (33% s/r over timber). Related to some decent horses and think it could be ready to strike on a lowly mark after 3 schooling runs. Trainer has 50% s/r with handicap debutants (1 from 2) and 50% s/r with hurdlers last 30 days (3 from 6 – 2 of those ridden by LK)

    Fact Flow 20/1 – 3.05 Ffos Las
    Slight punt on this one, very unexposed for a 10 year old with a total of 11 races under rules, won 2 starts ago over the same distance chasing, reverts back to hurdles today and STD is booked for the first time for the trainer. Not one to go mad on but thought it was interesting at a price.

    1. Had a saver on Golden Whisky in the 3.05 as its run last time received a form boost by the winner who came 2nd in a gradse 2 at the w/end and is on hcp debut at a track EW does well at.

      1. Usually I try and avoid backing multiple picks in a race but this time it turned out ok this time 🙂

      1. aha thanks for connecting the dots… sometimes I get lost in the data on HRB and GGZ and so miss connections like these but makes sense given their record. Hopefully she’s left her daughter a good one today 🙂

  14. COLINS BETS
    Wolverhampton
    5.15 Our Man In Havana BOG 11/1 365 12/1 WH 11/1
    5.15 Thorntoun Lady BOG 9/1
    Taking on the Fav for not convinced with even though they have put Adam Kirby in the plate.
    Jim Goldie great fan of his and the old lady can go well for Jim knows how to have them ready at a big price.

    ELITE BETS

    No bet

    Colin

  15. Hi all, today three for me!!

    FONT 13:55 MARLOW MOSS @ 12.0 B.O.G.
    FONT 14:25 MIDNIGHT BLISS @ 4.5 B.O.G.
    F/L 15:05 BRIGADIER BOB @ 8.5 B.O.G.

    1 Pt WIN
    G.L. SOLENT

  16. I’m struggling to find much anything today that I can put up with any confidence. I think that the Bowen horse is a live outsider given the sires record and the stable’s ability to win races with first time chasers. Has to be value at 8.2 (now on B/f), in a 3 horse race, so I’ll place it below for the record.

    FL 2.35 Potter’s Story……. 7.0

    Back about 3.00 with the late afternoon/evening update.

    1. Today’s been an exercise in red ink for me, it’s not that I can’t find anything it’s just that the market has already found them. Sometimes drifting horses can bring about an unexpected extended reward, but I’m not going to start putting them up short in the hope that they drift.

      So I’m done for the day.

  17. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT-0.39

    No bets today. Dimple was a winner yesterday +2.61 after rule 4.

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT-1.17

    2 pt win 1.20 Fontwell – My brother 4/1
    1 pt win 1.20 Fontwell – Rough Night 10/1

    Will settle to 10am odds

    choochoobugaloo hacked up yday but -0.5 on the day.

  18. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    F 4.00 – glimpse of Gold on 3rd run @4
    Festival
    F 2.25 – Robinroyale on 5th run @ 12
    GL

  19. GGZ speed ratings: We’ve commented that they tend to do better ‘over the jumps’ and I’ve been wondering whether there is a way to utilise them, in a narrow way, say first or second favourites, or more broadly. I say this having backed the top rated Briac 130, for other reasons than that rating, though used it as an emphasis for that bet.
    Does anyone know a source that tracks these top rated?
    Do you have any ideas about identifying a longer term productive seam from that data?

  20. Willow May 15/2 – 1.30 Ffos Las
    On handicap debut after 3 runs with a conditional, Lizzie Kelly steps up, who is already forging a good relationship with this new trainer (33% s/r over timber). Related to some decent horses and think it could be ready to strike on a lowly mark after 3 schooling runs. Trainer has 50% s/r with handicap debutants (1 from 2) and 50% s/r with hurdlers last 30 days (3 from 6 – 2 of those ridden by LK)

    Fact Flow 20/1 – 3.05 Ffos Las
    Slight punt on this one, very unexposed for a 10 year old with a total of 11 races under rules, won 2 starts ago over the same distance chasing, reverts back to hurdles today and STD is booked for the first time for the trainer. Not one to go mad on but thought it was interesting at a price.

    1. Had a saver on Golden Whisky in the 3.05 as its run last time received a form boost by the winner who came 2nd in a gradse 2 at the w/end and is on hcp debut at a track EW does well at.

      1. aha thanks for connecting the dots… sometimes I get lost in the data on HRB and GGZ and so miss connections like these but makes sense given their record. Hopefully she’s left her daughter a good one today 🙂

  21. COLINS BETS
    Wolverhampton
    5.15 Our Man In Havana BOG 11/1 365 12/1 WH 11/1
    5.15 Thorntoun Lady BOG 9/1
    Taking on the Fav for not convinced with even though they have put Adam Kirby in the plate.
    Jim Goldie great fan of his and the old lady can go well for Jim knows how to have them ready at a big price.

    ELITE BETS

    No bet

    Colin

  22. Hi all, today three for me!!

    FONT 13:55 MARLOW MOSS @ 12.0 B.O.G.
    FONT 14:25 MIDNIGHT BLISS @ 4.5 B.O.G.
    F/L 15:05 BRIGADIER BOB @ 8.5 B.O.G.

    1 Pt WIN
    G.L. SOLENT

  23. just looking at the 2.05 Ffs 🙂 just going to do small e/w’s on MUSICAL SLAVE & PRESS GANG ( but mostly on the 4tbp market on betfair ) i have a system ( still in the early days of non handicapped inmates of the hobbs yard NOT ridden by dickie…. when you look into class 4 races it all begins to unfold ) and the harry fry horse i am hoping bolts out in front and the rest is history .. lol 🙂
    have a happy day all 🙂
    gl/gb

  24. I’m struggling to find much anything today that I can put up with any confidence. I think that the Bowen horse is a live outsider given the sires record and the stable’s ability to win races with first time chasers. Has to be value at 8.2 (now on B/f), in a 3 horse race, so I’ll place it below for the record.

    FL 2.35 Potter’s Story……. 7.0

    Back about 3.00 with the late afternoon/evening update.

    1. Today’s been an exercise in red ink for me, it’s not that I can’t find anything it’s just that the market has already found them. Sometimes drifting horses can bring about an unexpected extended reward, but I’m not going to start putting them up short in the hope that they drift.

      So I’m done for the day.

  25. GGZ speed ratings: We’ve commented that they tend to do better ‘over the jumps’ and I’ve been wondering whether there is a way to utilise them, in a narrow way, say first or second favourites, or more broadly. I say this having backed the top rated Briac 130, for other reasons than that rating, though used it as an emphasis for that bet.
    Does anyone know a source that tracks these top rated?
    Do you have any ideas about identifying a longer term productive seam from that data?

  26. Well, as a newbie, if i ever needed to be reminded that this is a difficult old challenge then this sums it since strict records on the strategies i have followed kept since 31/12. Winners 7 (=7..5 %)Losers 136. A smattering of E/W s for those recommended at E/W.
    Disappointed – Yes, disheartened No, Thankful for advice to ‘keep separate Banks and low stakes – BIG YES! As the song says – ‘Things can only get better’, Can’t they. Onwards and hopefully upwards trending pretty soon. 🙂

      1. Hi John. I’ve been a member on here since the summer and thought I would share how I use the site in case it is of interest.

        I stress this is what suits me, and my mental approach to winning and losing. It may not suit you.

        I note all es+ and w1 qualifiers, all Josh’s tips plus Nick’s and cherry pick from other much respected contributors. I then see what the RP spotlight comments say about the qualifiers and finally see if any match my trainer/jockey historical and current form picks. Only then do I bet. I never follow any strategy blind because long losing runs do my head in and I then make silly choices to recoup losses. I could not deal with 11 winners and 136 losers as in your example.

        If the planets align such as today with Golden Whisky (an es qualifier plus James giving a well reasoned argument plus positive RP comment), happy days a 10/1 winner.

        Following every strategy blindly would, for me, be far too many bets every day and too long losing runs. I miss some winners, sure, but minimise the losers. I’m gradually learning not to mind missing strategy winners too much and having fun learning from others on here. Hope this helps and all the best.

        1. Hi Mark, many thanks for your comment – greatly appreciated. I know what you mean about Long Losing runs, guess we all feel much the same. I probably should have taken Josh s advice re choosing 4 or 5 rather than what i have. I have been doing S1 S2A S3A # and W1 plus Nick’s – all of which i analysed as having a Win rate over 12 months of between 22 and 30 % (counting E/W s into the % ages) – so clearly the current run is very poor, and i accept that. I also have bet, but at lower stakes the following – Josh’s 3 best Jumps strategies (sorry folks it must be put the kiss of death on them 🙁 ) and Colin s bets and Martyn Whittles. (I will follow Josh s BRTips but can see almost all of them are between March and September, so thats for the future.
          Unfortunately i don’t for personal reasons have time to do the analysis which you clearly undertake so i think i will stick to the main 5 or 6, and leave out those which are not proven results wise for at least a year! I realise that i may just have to hang on in there, BUT despite the results i feel optimistic.
          I love the Site and i was reflecting earlier today as i stared at yet another – for me – total wipeout that in my younger, naive days had i joined a ‘tipping service’ which was so crap (as 99 % of them are once you join!) that it had results like these i would already have been firing off an email to stop subs and – where appropriate – ask for a Refund! This Site is – as i have told Josh – is unique and different and i truly believe if i keep things simple, keep my nerve, and belief, ultimately i will steadily make profits! Its a pity i dont have more time fro analysis – although at least i am generally around to get bets on in the morning. If my situation changes i will bear in mind what you have said.
          Thanks again. take care John

          1. Cheers John, yes I appreciate having taken early retirement that I do have the luxury of time. I recall when working that rushed bets never performed well! All the best with however you play it, this is a great site.

  27. Well, as a newbie, if i ever needed to be reminded that this is a difficult old challenge then this sums it since strict records on the strategies i have followed kept since 31/12. Winners 7 (=7..5 %)Losers 136. A smattering of E/W s for those recommended at E/W.
    Disappointed – Yes, disheartened No, Thankful for advice to ‘keep separate Banks and low stakes – BIG YES! As the song says – ‘Things can only get better’, Can’t they. Onwards and hopefully upwards trending pretty soon. 🙂

      1. Hi John. I’ve been a member on here since the summer and thought I would share how I use the site in case it is of interest.

        I stress this is what suits me, and my mental approach to winning and losing. It may not suit you.

        I note all es+ and w1 qualifiers, all Josh’s tips plus Nick’s and cherry pick from other much respected contributors. I then see what the RP spotlight comments say about the qualifiers and finally see if any match my trainer/jockey historical and current form picks. Only then do I bet. I never follow any strategy blind because long losing runs do my head in and I then make silly choices to recoup losses. I could not deal with 11 winners and 136 losers as in your example.

        If the planets align such as today with Golden Whisky (an es qualifier plus James giving a well reasoned argument plus positive RP comment), happy days a 10/1 winner.

        Following every strategy blindly would, for me, be far too many bets every day and too long losing runs. I miss some winners, sure, but minimise the losers. I’m gradually learning not to mind missing strategy winners too much and having fun learning from others on here. Hope this helps and all the best.

        1. Hi Mark, many thanks for your comment – greatly appreciated. I know what you mean about Long Losing runs, guess we all feel much the same. I probably should have taken Josh s advice re choosing 4 or 5 rather than what i have. I have been doing S1 S2A S3A # and W1 plus Nick’s – all of which i analysed as having a Win rate over 12 months of between 22 and 30 % (counting E/W s into the % ages) – so clearly the current run is very poor, and i accept that. I also have bet, but at lower stakes the following – Josh’s 3 best Jumps strategies (sorry folks it must be put the kiss of death on them 🙁 ) and Colin s bets and Martyn Whittles. (I will follow Josh s BRTips but can see almost all of them are between March and September, so thats for the future.
          Unfortunately i don’t for personal reasons have time to do the analysis which you clearly undertake so i think i will stick to the main 5 or 6, and leave out those which are not proven results wise for at least a year! I realise that i may just have to hang on in there, BUT despite the results i feel optimistic.
          I love the Site and i was reflecting earlier today as i stared at yet another – for me – total wipeout that in my younger, naive days had i joined a ‘tipping service’ which was so crap (as 99 % of them are once you join!) that it had results like these i would already have been firing off an email to stop subs and – where appropriate – ask for a Refund! This Site is – as i have told Josh – is unique and different and i truly believe if i keep things simple, keep my nerve, and belief, ultimately i will steadily make profits! Its a pity i dont have more time fro analysis – although at least i am generally around to get bets on in the morning. If my situation changes i will bear in mind what you have said.
          Thanks again. take care John

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