Members Daily Post: 13/01/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Kelso

3.10 – Chidswell   (micro runs) 14, 30 H3 G1  10/3 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 0/2,1p, -2)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/133,63p, +22.8, 1 point win)

Nothing on Sunday from me, I haven’t looked, and don’t really feel like doing so! Back Monday with some fresher eyes, and hopefully some more luck. It’s a mixed bag at the moment – everything bar winners- Horses being backed, horses still running long after the race has finished, (awful picks), those running honourable/close/staying on seconds or falling when still going well, not knowing. Frustrating. It will turn one day. 🙂 Well done to James for nabbing the Lanzarote winner at 22s, superb picking – an example of what i’d call ‘The Cheltenham Festival Factor’ – by that I mean handicap winners there (esp hurdles) often improve from previous form (and thus have stacks in hand) by getting a proper gallop aim at, at a classy pace- that helps horses settle and just travel in their comfort zone for much longer, bringing stamina in to play. Not many races in a season are run like that. That’s what’s happened with today’s winner- I mean he was in fine form/progressive anyway, but he’s relished the pace there and just cruised into it, leaving all previous form behind. Both mine ran decent races (2nd, 4th) and both clearly have handicap wins in them at some point. I don’t think that was the strongest renewal so will be interesting to see how subsequent runners perform moving forward. It could prove to be decent enough. A very mature ride from young Jonjo junior. The less said about the Classic Chase the better albeit I’m not sure I was every landing on the winner at 7s, given he’s yet to place in a chase, stamina to prove (albeit looked ok), ponderous jumping LTO (CP back on today though) and the in and out form of the yard. Sadly any such loss is always harder to take when the two you fancy tail off. My big chase form is just horrible, I can’t recall being on such a poor run really.  Josses Hill- not knowing is just annoying. He jumped well bar one fence, and was still travelling. Hard to say what would have happened and no shock the danger horse won, but they may have been battling it out over the last few. 8s into 9/2. Moving on, and best to keep smiling! This is a testing game at the best of times. 

Enjoy the rest of your weekend. I think i’m off to Ampton Point to Point, as i’m still down south and it’s only up the road. I’d best ask my pointing friends what to back! 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

1.35 K – The Herds Garden 7/1 

3.10 K – Lough Derg Jewel 5/2 

3.40 K – Golden Investment 9/2 

Richard Hobson (33/1< guide) 

2.05 K- Eureu Du Boulay 4/1 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers (9/1< best) 

2.05 K – Beggars Wish 9/2 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

51 Comments

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  • A tough week due to both the poor quality of racing along with the very small field sizes, particularly in the novice events. Only the one winner from the 6 bets that made the BFSP minimum, giving a profit of +7.5 on the week.

    R/T 6W, 10L, +54.5 (BFSP)

    Tim 12/01/19 5:38 PM Reply


    • Well done Tim, excellent performance. Will watch with future developments interest.
      Mike

      bottlabroon 12/01/19 6:18 PM Reply


    • Yes well done Tim. Quite the run. A +7.5 week isn’t to be sniffed at, and certainly compared to some of our efforts! 🙂

      Josh 12/01/19 7:14 PM Reply


  • Well I`m going over the water tomorrow, to maybe get my eyes focussed on picking winners, something I know I can do, but, seem to be finding it hard to do, so, going to try my best to crack the code…
    13:15 PUNCHESTOWN
    WINTER ESCAPE 6/1 gen 1pt win
    Just abot value here, he allegedly travels really well at home and gets on very well with the jockey, he should be pulling on the bit turning in and hopefully has enough speed to out do these!
    GUN DIGGER 13/2 gen 1pt win
    You have to start having a loook at G Elliotts horses at this time of year, he is normally just starting to wind them up ready for Cheltenham, this fella is no exception to the rule. He goes on heavy and soft and 13/2 for a gigginstown runner is not to be sniffed at.

    14:20 PUNCHESTOWN
    WHISPERINTHEBREEZE 13/2 gen 1pt win
    He finished 2nd to Gun Digger the other week, so, hopefully the form will have been boosted earlier on the card. Punchestown has been the aim with him, but, he has bee a little sporadic, maybe this extra distance will bring out the best, we shall see.
    MAJOR DESTINATION 15/2 gen 1 pt win
    He has been a hit and miss and maybe the trainer is having one last roll of the dice as far as him jumping is concerned, he does jump and he does get round, but, normally at whatever pace he feels like, so, could be an out the back of the tv horse, or, could stor away with this, 15/2 is worth a chance though!
    As always, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you back today/tomorrow.
    I will be back on saturday next week, ready for Haydock.

    Stewart 12/01/19 7:39 PM Reply


    • Replace MIDNIGHT SHADOW with DOUBLE PORTRAIT 1/2 pt e/w.

      Stewart 13/01/19 11:23 AM Reply


      • Sorry I meant MAJOR DESTINATION was just reading an article in the Racing Post when the NR came through, put it down to my age… haha.

        Stewart 13/01/19 11:36 AM Reply


    • Nice one , Stewart. Great 12/1 return

      Malcolm Silkstone 13/01/19 1:22 PM Reply


      • Brilliant Stewart. Hope youve got BOG or were on BFSP.

        Will never get my head round these drifts and vice versa

        Chris Sengelow 13/01/19 1:24 PM Reply


        • BFSP was 24….

          Chris Sengelow 13/01/19 1:33 PM Reply


    • Should stick with the Irish….

      Stewart 13/01/19 1:36 PM Reply


  • Very sobering results from all on the tipping front and it seems as usual I’m the only one who is willing to post what most see as negative. Winning at betting is almost impossible nowadays and the chance of someone with little experience winning is zero long term, implying anyone can is outrageous.

    This forum is the best betting info forum on the web and there’s many on here with enough experience to rein back the greenhorns from their lightheaded optimism instead of causally commenting on how lucky they are to be here. Punters like me, Colin and others have been through the wringer in earlier years. If all we lost like me, a weeks wages in 4 races at the White city then its not too bad but people are losing their jobs, homes and minds.

    This website costs little to join and we must be alert of newbies thinking they have found Utopia. So there you go, maybe an optomistic post coming later but doubtful. Sorry but I see some tipping posts that are very worrying.

    chubnut 12/01/19 8:16 PM Reply


    • You can still make a profit betting on horses. You need the bank and the time to put in to go through the cards and gain knowledge from reading and listening. In 2019 have a target of +100 points on Tips and +60 points on my micros/system selections as well as +75 points on the golf. We shall see how I go and they will all be posted on these blogs as we go.
      I think that anyone who wishes to have a go at tipping should do so here. We do not have to back them until we are comfortable that they can show a profit, which is what I do. I back Nick’s selections only at present and am waiting for a few other guys here to get some positive figures going. We only know if they have something if they post tips and we can record their performance.

      Good luck Martin

      martin colwell 12/01/19 8:39 PM Reply


      • I’m with Martin on this Chubnut. It is possible, it’s just that it’s damned difficult with all the distractions and misinformation that’s pushed to the fore by the media and the racing press that have responsibilities to their respective dependencies.

        If I had one piece of advice for the newbies I’d say…. before you commence your rise to riches, lock yourself in your room, switch off your TV and William Hill radio etc,etc, throw your copy of the RP in the waste bin, and whatever you do…. don’t start looking for ‘winners’.

        Tim 12/01/19 8:59 PM Reply


    • I think today reminds us that things aren’t that easy although anyone here should remember that what happens in any single day or week doesn’t matter and it’s more about the long term. Personally I have made a profit every year but you have to be very disciplined.

      Nick Mazur 12/01/19 8:52 PM Reply


      • Well said nick, I’m exactly the same and we both know how much we have to put in to do that. I just hate newbies thinking the game is as easy as logging into a website in the morning and collecting in the evening.

        chubnut 12/01/19 9:02 PM Reply


        • Quite agree with Chubnut’s caution. I don’t think it is sensible sites like Racing To Profit (despite its name!) that give the impression of quick profits, but rather the tipster sites, even the reputable ones. You know when a tipster is not pushed at you for a while that he’s having a lean spell. Then when a good month finally comes, his name is everywhere and the previous disastrous six months glossed over. It has been a volatile month or two for a lot of the established tipsters, with many showing losses in December and January.

          manyanga 12/01/19 9:25 PM Reply


          • It’s so true. Losing runs are not a pleasurable experience but they are inevitable from time to time. So a disciplined approach to staking strategy is essential. I’ve suffered in the past from over-stretching myself in terms of £pp and learned a few hard lessons. But for me the fundamental rule is to have a decent points bank (200) and stick to your £pp regime until your bank has increased significantly. But newbies joining whilst a losing run is in flow is understandably difficult.

            Mick 12/01/19 11:43 PM Reply


        • Hi chubnut, well I’m one of those newbies! I didn’t join RTP because I thought it was a get rich quick fix but actually for a bit of fun. I enjoy reading the views of fellow members and enjoy a bit of a punt. I gave myself a 200 point bank albeit at low stakes and just enjoy the buzz of it all. Whether that is right or wrong I don’t know,…..who knows……..each man to his own methinks. I’m not clever enough to read form, so I really appreciate the members and Josh of course who take all the time and effort to put their tips forward on a daily basis. I have a good look through these every day and make my choices. Some win and lots lose but whatever happens I enjoy the ride on this great site. Good luck to all everyone at RTP IN 2019 !!
          Best wishes, Tom.

          Tom Murgatroyd 13/01/19 8:46 AM Reply


          • I agree totally with you Tom, and I operate pretty much the same as yourself, so upwards and onwards to everyone on this site, great site people!

            Brian

            Brian Wright 13/01/19 9:29 AM Reply


    • Just a short addition to some of the thoughts on here. My time is often short nowadays to do the study I used to do and this is the reason I signed up with Josh round 18 months ago. There’s no doubt that people are having a tough time at the minute but look at the empirical evidence, look at the report he produced for 2018 (and previous years) last week, money has and is being made. The worst thing you can do in betting is looking short term and take in anecdotal evidence, that way leads to the poor house.

      I actually did a proper study in the Weekender last week for my trip to Warwick yesterday, the result? 0 from 7 bets! So what, a bad day and we carry on. In the 7 years or so I’ve taken my betting seriously I’ve concentrated on Novice Hurdles in the winter (take on the fave EW) and Group races on the Flat (looking for the improver or the big dropper in class) and I’ve made a bit of money. I’ve always believed that the Handicapper doing his job full time has a MASSIVE advantage over me and my limited time & patience so I’ve got help from people like Racing To Profit to get some bets on and that has helped me pay for a new Sofa and keep the car on the road. I’ll never be a high roller but the love of this game and a few Sheckles profit at the end of it will do for me! @sfwplant

      Steve Plant 13/01/19 9:50 AM Reply


  • By the way Josh, different look on a race. Josses hill shortened into all but 2 fences, lucky to not fall earlier. Sign of a frightened horse, falling will make it even worse.

    chubnut 12/01/19 8:29 PM Reply


    • I’ll watch it again.youre probably right and that’s my tinted specs getting in the way. I thought he was safe at plenty but for him he was as good as he can be! That fence he fell at he was dodgy at on previous circuit and Nico didn’t seem sure on what he wanted him to do. Both out of sync with each other.

      Josh 12/01/19 8:50 PM Reply


      • Regarding Josses Hill, I thought his jumping wasn’t great but he was still travelling when he came down so you never know. On his day he’s a classy horse, but I think his jumping is sketchy at best. Seemed to be guessing at a fewxof his fences and got it all wrong. Fortunately, he came back in one piece which is the main thing.

        Regarding losing runs, it’s definitely a case of the long term view, 2 or 3 good winners and we’ll all be back in the black so to speak and able to press on. Racing and managing your ‘bank’ is all cyclical, you have the ups and have to deal with the downs, but long term you’re looking for overall growth. Keep the faith guys!

        Lee 13/01/19 9:18 AM Reply


  • Karl Burke at Southwell:

    10 Sylviacliffs K Burke 13 Jan 19 12:20 Southwell 20/1
    8 Agent Smith K Burke 13 Jan 19 12:20 Southwell 10/1
    9 Sense Of Direction K Burke 13 Jan 19 12:50 Southwell 7/1
    8 Thunder Buddy K Burke 13 Jan 19 14:30 Southwell 6/1
    6 Helen Sherbet K Burke 13 Jan 19 15:00 Southwell 22/1
    14 Baron Run K Burke 13 Jan 19 15:00 Southwell 16/1

    martin colwell 12/01/19 8:52 PM Reply


    • All 1 point win.

      Cheers Martin

      martin colwell 12/01/19 10:29 PM Reply


      • Bloody hell Martin. 22/1 – what a start to the day.
        Cheers

        Mike 13/01/19 12:29 PM Reply


  • HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT-3

    2.05 K – Dimple @ 11/4

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    Dyliev did it quite nicely to land a 9/1 winner – certainly plenty more to come from her I think

    RT-0.67

    2 pt win 2.05 K – eureu du boulay (will settle at late morning odds tomorrow in the unlikely event of another winner)

    Francis 12/01/19 9:35 PM Reply


    • Sorry missed one.

      1pt win – 2.40 K choochoobugaloo

      Francis 12/01/19 10:14 PM Reply


  • Did a rough breakdown of Burkes aw profitable race type and distaance

    2yo
    7f +111
    mdn/nov +155(this is skewed by 2 wins at newcastle 66/1and 40/1)
    3yo
    7f-1m1f +75
    mdn/nov +77

    4yo
    6f-1m1f +43
    hcap +11
    This would favour Sense of direction 12.50,Thunder Buddy 2.30,
    Helen Sherbert+Baron Run 3.00
    Burke seems to excel with horses that are either first time on the surface or are proven.
    Couldn’t discount out of hand the 3yo’s in the 12.20
    Burke is fairly adept at getting his horses ready fto so if Sense of Direction is good enough lack of race experience shouldn’t matter.
    Thunder Buddy was fairly resolute and should again run his race
    Baron run has yet to win from 6 attempts at southwell

    At the price Helen Sherbert makes the most appeal of the older horses.Has lost the spark he had last winter,now he might be just regressive but if he could recapture that form he might be more competitive and fairly hefty priced winners from the stable occur often.

    gearoid180468 12/01/19 10:03 PM Reply


    • yep .. and i think K BURKE fto runners at Southwell is not to shabby ? 1 in 3 i think ? SENSE OF DIRECTION looks good to me 🙂
      gl/gb

      GEORGE B 13/01/19 9:53 AM Reply


      • K R Burke debutantes @ Southwell are 2/25 (8%) George. Kodiac progeny are 1/5 (deb’s) & 17.14% generally. Only thing about Kodiac progeny is that they appear to be best at 5 and 6 furlong distances so don’t tick all my boxes, but is currently around 15.0 on b/f so could be worth a poke if only from the sire angle.

        Tim 13/01/19 11:42 AM Reply


        • nope k burke defo 1 in 3 non handicap first career run being at southwell class 5
          gl/gb

          GEORGE B 13/01/19 5:06 PM Reply


          • only in january that is as well
            gb

            GEORGE B 13/01/19 5:10 PM Reply


  • nothing tomorrow, hopefully i’ll get a spare hour to update results (will not be pleasant reading)

    martin whittle 13/01/19 1:28 AM Reply


  • Not looking good here B365 RT -25.75 SP -31.52
    220 Pun Se Mo Laoch 9/2
    300 So Helen Sherbert 20/1 & Break the Silence 10/1

    kevo19 13/01/19 1:39 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    K 2.40 – Avondhu Pearl on 3rd run @ 33
    P 3.20 – Poseidon on 2nd run @ 25
    AW
    S 3.00 – Break the Silence on 7th run @ 9
    GL

    Titus 13/01/19 10:20 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Southwell
    1.25 Ornate BOG 5/2
    1.25 Samovar BOG 4/1

    ELITE BETS

    No bet

    cleafe 13/01/19 10:30 AM Reply


  • Nothing from me today

    Nick Mazur 13/01/19 10:56 AM Reply


  • 15.10 Kelso – Lough Derg Jewel – 1p @ 5.50
    14.40 Kelso – Golden Investment – 1p @ 3.75
    (Jan +0.3p BOG / -5.3p BSP)

    Mike

    bottlabroon 13/01/19 11:09 AM Reply


  • Racing is full of variables and to few constants it always will be. We think of the constant soft ground in January but this year its not there goodish ground and small fields. Maybe josh is struggling with his chasers because of this. It always will be a battle to beat the bookies

    Paul 13/01/19 11:16 AM Reply


  • Road to Riches there is none only honesty and transparency you can join all the cowboy tipsters out there and pay up to £1995 which the Winning Line was charging years ago with their flagship Celebrity actor Nat Parker doing the promotion for them,for me the name did not ring true along with lack of profit.
    For myself and believe that i am the only one who records my bets to Bookmakers SP and at BOG to show the value of getting a price whilst you can for once you are successful and beating the price you will have no account to bet with.
    RTP you cannot get better value anywhere on the market and Josh is totally honest and transparent and he will always have long losing runs which is the name of the game,but with RTP you do have a good chance of winning in the long term provided that you have a large enough Bank that you are willing lose.
    Colins bets and now Elite Bets prices and results are put up on here for every one to see and they are totally accurate what people see.
    Chubnut you along with many others claim that they do not have time to keep records of results it only takes a couple of minutes and for me no records and no bank then the individual should not be betting for they are not being true to themselves let along putting tips up for others to lose,my betting as been proven over the years with Surewin,Sportsworld,Optimum Racing including Golf and with RTP and i would not put up bets for my ego and risk anyone losing their hard earned cash.
    BOG will only put a price up when at least two bookmakers are displaying a price now anyone please inform me of any tipster on the market who are as open and transparent as this let alone Recording at SP, Timeform are one who record at SP but have not checked them out for a few years.
    Rambling on for did not arrive home till 5am and still rather -issed after a fantastic night and only one more weekend left before op.
    Cheers
    Colin

    cleafe 13/01/19 11:44 AM Reply


    • Colin wrote….. “Road to Riches there is none only honesty and transparency you can join all the cowboy tipsters out there”. The tipsters you are referring to are British and make a living dishonestly rounding up cheques and online credit card payments and not to be confused with their North/South American counterparts that make a hard but honest living working cattle stock and wrangling horses.

      It’s not a personal criticism Colin, I come across this use of the word very often these days and it always p1sses me off having several friends that are hard working ranch hands over in the US. Couldn’t agree more with the general content of your post though.

      Tim 13/01/19 12:26 PM Reply


      • Like it Tim will have to change my wording in future,however we are in Great Britain not the USA,political correctness are we allowed to say Great or is that taboo now!!!
        Cheers
        Colin

        cleafe 13/01/19 12:59 PM Reply


        • Thing is that I’m not PC either Colin, it’s just that I have a major respect for these guys having ridden and worked alongside them. The kind of work these guys undertake every day (I go there as a guest mainly due to my interest and ownership of Western horses), most Brits wouldn’t even consider it as a realistic way to make a living, far too dangerous and just too much like hard work.

          Tim 13/01/19 1:22 PM Reply


          • Let’s lighten up:) Surely no offence was intended with the context of the comment being well understood by most readers

            Malcolm Silkstone 13/01/19 4:16 PM Reply


            • Couldn’t agree more! For heaven’s sake, let’s not offend all the cowboys who read this blog, yee-hah!

              Mark Curtis 13/01/19 6:06 PM Reply


              • 🙂

                GEORGE B 13/01/19 9:48 PM Reply


  • Saw a pic of P Nicholls on holiday on a boat which got me thinking that I haven’t heard mention this year his January horse flu jab programme. A few of his have drifted and ran poorly recently. Something to bear in mind and I guess the same for other trainers

    enjoysummers 13/01/19 11:45 AM Reply


    • Nicholls has been jabbing his horses in tranches, so that those ready to run this month go last. Give him a miss now for a couple of weeks unless they are backed I would say.

      martin colwell 13/01/19 12:57 PM Reply


    • Quite correct it is that time of year and then they come back in February / March absolutely bouncing, be great if the average punter knew when this was happening….Ibis du Rheu ran a stinker yesterday and although it is my pocket talking I would have taken it on the chin if I had a run for my money!!?

      Stewart 13/01/19 12:59 PM Reply


  • Three possibilities today but unlikely to get all of them. The interesting one is Sense Of Direction. From the trainer angle (2 from 25 (8%), deb’s @ Southwell in non hcp races), it’s not that exciting, but from the sire angle it’s worth 11.0 or better. Probably just gave it the kiss of death, but at the right price I’m in too. 🙂

    Sout’ 12.50 Sense Of Direction 11.0
    Sout’ 1.25 Mining Gold……… 8.0
    Sout’ 1.55 Mixboy …………… 6.0

    No jumps action for me today.

    Tim 13/01/19 12:06 PM Reply


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