Members Daily Post: 12/01/19 (complete)

ALL Tips x3, Section 1 (complete), test zone , Lanzarote shortlist

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc


1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs


1.30 – Poker School   (all Hc’s) I3 G1 5/2 2nd 

2.40 – Doux Pretender   (micro Hcdeb) 14,30  w2 7/1 UP

3.15 –

Josses Hill   (m TJC) 14,30  G3  15/2 Fell 9/2 

Ballykan   (HcCh) H3 I1 G3 7/2 S4 UP

3.45 – Speed Company   (all Hc’s, m +class) H3 G3 3/1 UP



3.00 –

Caroles Destrier   (all Hc’s)  w1 10/1 S2 UP

Impulsive Star   (all Hc’s) 15/2 WON 15/2>8/1 



1.40 – Zig Zag   (m class) 30 13/2 WON 13/2 

2.50 – Blue Hussar   (m’s TJC and dist) G1 6/1 UP




Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  –  … or failing that… 



2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143; 2019 0/2,1p, -2)

Big Race Tips 

2.40 Kemp – Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle

Star of Lanka – 1 point win – 18.5 Betfair Exchange  /16/1 (Lad/BV/Coral) 14/1 (gen) UP (4th) 

Solomon Grey – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) 11/1 (BetB) 10/1 (gen)  2nd 12/1 , decent run, no complaints 

My shortlist: those two, + Doux Pretender (wouldn’t put off a saver, but I’ve been lured in by bigger odds) + And The New (Nick has him covered, and if none of those 4 win then it will have been a sorry effort) 


Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/133,63p, +22.8, 1 point win)

3.15 Kemp- Josses Hill – 8/1 (gen) Fell 9/2 – frustrating, thankfully he’s fine, but always annoying not knowing. I think there would have been a battle up the straight. 

that’s all, 10.38, write ups… 


2.40 – 

I’d like to think it’s between those 4 shortlisted above… Star of Lanka hasn’t done anything wrong in recent runs and looks the sort who could take a big step forward with a stronger pace to aim at, in a better race. He certainly runs that way having watched his recent runs back as he’s a strong traveller and a galloper. He hosed up in a novice hurdle and then won again under a penalty where plenty went wrong. Hereford wouldn’t be a bad place to run before heading to Kempton, as they are similar enough in some respects. I’m not sure he wants deep ground and he’s run well on good to soft. ‘Good’ here is a question but it’s more of an unknown that I think is built into the price. He looks sure to relish this extra furlong and will race handily enough I think, if he has the ability/pace to hold a position. He’s jumped well and the trainer has a decent record with LTO winners and with handicap debutants. I thought he was a lively outsider, I could make a case for him, he hits the main stats and was 14s+. The yard have been going ok- they’ve had plenty of placed runners which is more of a positive than a negative.

Solomon Grey – maybe the fact Harry isn’t here is a sign both for his chances and for some of those he rides at Warwick but BA has won big races for the yard so I won’t over-think that too much. She did ride him LTO so at least she knows him. He had some decent form to his name last year, including in a novice here which worked out well enough, and he looks like he may relish this step up in trip. Connections said he underperformed on his return LTO but he was visibly outpaced to my eyes, kept on ok, before then tiring. I suspect he needed it, and/or was having to do far too much at the wrong point in the race. He gets a tongue tie on here and the yard are in form. He has more handicap wins in him and wants decent ground, so could be one to watch in the spring – he looks like the sort to relish a stronger pace also. 

I’m trying hard to stick to my big price guns in these races, and certainly not under 8s – focussing at that end has been unnatural and the death of me this jumps season – so, clearly it won’t be a shock if Doux Pretender bolts up now – I didn’t think 7s was overpriced given his ability to hang under pressure (he may hang to this nearside rail after the last, which will help him) and at Towcester and Ascot over 22f he’s run like a stayer- at stiffer tracks than this. I do wonder if he may be tapped for toe as they turn for home here. I could have that wrong and he’s just classier then plenty in here. This trip does look ideal, but maybe at a stiffer track. Of course they may go very hard up front. There were just a few niggles at that price but he’s unexposed, will look well handicapped at some point, the yard are red hot, do very well with handicap debutants here and know what it takes to win this race. Just the sort i’d dive in at 10s+ but I suppose he was never going to be that price. He looks solid enough, but I could make a case for two at bigger prices. 

And The New – I had a couple of niggles about his free going nature, over this distance. He does run as if he may relish it. The 55 day break after a wind op niggled me also as he’s probably missed some work, may not be 100% as some, and could be fresh enough. This is also his first time RH over timber, which is an unknown. It could be what he’s wanted all along. As a disciple of Nick’s tips, I clearly won’t mind if he wins, but I fancied those other two 10s+ shots on my stats shortlist more. Hopefully one of us is right. I can see the case, especially given his bumper form and how some of his races have worked out. He should have an ok handicap in him, when putting it all together. It’s not impossible he gets an easy lead either but that may depend on the Hobbs horse, and of course they may ride him different to get this trip. 

I had a look at the rest and didn’t fancy anything else at the odds, I do think these 4 look most interesting. The Moore /Bowen horses didn’t look overpriced to my eyes. I’m not sure what the former has beaten, and whether this mark still underestimates him. Too short given the questions for me. 

3.15 – Josses Hill – I know I know – he’s 11. But this is only his second handicap chase, his mark is workable in handicaps now, and I was impressed enough with his return LTO. Clearly that was a much deeper race than this, a 1/2 length behind a 160 animal, with 2x 159 animals in front. He was visibly outpaced there over 2m4f, in a Grade 2, but stayed on well. He no doubt needed the run but it was a promising return and the best he’s jumped over fences for some time, to my eyes anyway. I didn’t think this was a good race and I thought he could outclass them. That run LTO suggests he’s well worth another go over 3m, especially around here, against inferior opposition. There was just enough juice in his price. The yard are going well and they will try and be aggressive with him. The main danger does look to be the fav, Glenn Rocco – who runs as if he will relish this step up in trip and that may turn out to be a decent race LTO. 11/4 may be short for saver purposes, i’m not sure. He has been held up, and has made the odd niggly error and gets a new jockey. And of course he does have to prove he stays, so that makes 11/4 short enough, but he’s the interesting ‘could be anything’ unexposed one in this. I really didn’t like the rest at their prices and thought this was a weak enough race. If Josses builds on that return here- I don’t think he will be far away, if he stays! 8s, given the oppo, was big enough for me. 


3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

1.40 Weth – Val Mome 3/1 UP

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

1.15 Warw – Baby King 11/1 UP

3.00 Warw- Chase The Spud 66/1 UP


Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO Winning Hurdlers

12.40 Warw – Texan Nomad 9/2 BD


3.00 Warw – Ibis Du Rheu 15/2 UP

3.15 Kemp – Minella Daddy 10/1 UP

1.15 Warw – Rock On Rocky 10/1 UP


4.Any general messages/updates etc

Saturday Big Race Trends/pointers: Kempton + WarwickHERE>>>



Lanzarote Shortlist 

Using those stats above, a winning profile: 14 or fewer career runs, 8 or fewer hurdles runs, placed at least once on last two starts, 1-2 hurdle wins. That leaves 10/47, 19p…

The horses to hit that profile: Kloud Gate / Doux Pretender / Star of Lanka / And The New / Solomon Grey 

Top 4 in the weights including joints is a positive: Doux Pretender / And The New

Having run at Listed or higher already in career is a big positive, and from that original profile above leaves 10/26,13p… only two horses from the list above hit those… Doux Pretender / And The New 

Doux Pretender – Henderson has won this race before, the only trainer to have done so from that shortlist above. 

The stats then, would strongly point to both Doux Pretender / And The New 




Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

36 Responses

  1. And The New Kempton 14:40 1pt e/w 14/4 4 places 1/5
    Cogry Warwick 15:00 1pt e/w 7/1

    Rest to follow later

  2. Callum Rodriguez has a good few rides at Newcastle but the one that interests me is Highwayman 4.30 best price at writing 9/1WH.When i first looked at this one it was 16/1 with Bet365 and had to change from 10-9/1 as I wrote.Don’t like going below 10’s but as i have started will finish.
    Highwayman has won at the course over the distance,has been running over further recently and now reverts to winning distance.The trainer has had a winner recently and has had winners here,he needs to come of a true gallop and could be running on at the finish hopefully.Always a bit wary of sudden price drops the night before but have funeral tomorrow morning.It may revert to a more reasonable price in the morning

    1. Highwayman was tipped early by Each Way Leader (Betting Gods). They usually drift back out. Well, I hope so – laid it at 9.2.

      1. Quite an apt Bet for these sharks,don’t need the horse and pistol and internet is their mask.I feel a song coming on!
        As I was going over the Cork and Kerry mountains
        I met with captain Farrell and his money he was countin
        I first produced my pistol and then produced my rapier
        Said stand and deliver or the devil he may take yer
        With your ringdumadodumara whack for my dadio,
        whack for my dadio
        There’s whiskey in the jar

  3. And The New Kempton 14:40 1pt e/w (will record at 14/1 4p 1/5 with a 10p r4)
    Cogry Warwick 15:00 1pt e/w 7/1
    Blaklion Warwick 15:35 1.5pt win 6/1
    Katheefa Newcastle 18:30 1pt e/w 9/1

  4. Keep polishing that pin Colin, it’s working a treat!! Two more nice winners today……we’ll done!!
    Best wishes, Tom.

  5. Evening,

    Anyone else feel the racing feast has turned into a famine?
    Anyway, onto the big yins races tomorrow.
    15:00 Warwick
    IBIS DU RHEU 7/1 gen 1pt win
    I cannot and will not abandon this fella after tipping him up earlier in the week, still believe 7/1 is too big, so will have another 1pt win on him now also! So long as he doesn`t have a colly wobble he should be fine here and it will be interesting to see how he copes with this more competative field, me personally I think all nuances will have been ironed out and he will be right come post time!
    COGRY 7/1 gen 1 pt win
    Well I just hope I have the right NTD horse here, believe him and Callett Mad are close, but, COGRY wins through on speed, again just..He has won round here and really came up against “One” in Milansbar in this last year, (you`ll notice Bryony has abandonded him this year which speaks volumes). The better ground plays into COGRY`s favour also and the 7/1 on offer is just about value.

    14:40 KEMPTON
    STAR OF LANKA 14/1 Coral 1pt win
    The Greatrex family are great supporters of horse racing in general and maybe I am backing with my heart here, but, believe me this one has won it`s last two whilst looking a little green, this first time in a handicap will help as he should be spot on for this and the drying ground will help!
    COTSWOLD WAY 14/1 365 1pt win
    I don`t believe he will get an easy lead here, but, he may have too much speed for these also, he is tough and twice now when headed he has rallied and then gone onto win, so, for me that is a top trait for a race like this…we shall see.

    As always, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and souns and good luck with whatever you pick out!

    1. Just to let you know I will also be backing BLACK CORTON in the 14:05 at Kempton, this horse loves being with Bryony Frost, just like FRODON they get on and i believe the key to this one is small fields, he does not like the hurly burly of fields of over 8 runners, in the last 2 seasons his record in small fields (under 8 runners) is 1112112, it should continue tomorrow and 13/2 is way too big….fill your boots is the proverbial!!

      1. I assume that’s why Bryony isn’t on Milamsbar! I don’t think she’d have had the choice so that’s not a neg against the old boy. She’s clearly a positive but surely conditions will be too fast for him! GL let’s hope we’re all right on Cogry. He’s got too much weight of expectation again mind. Poor bugger.

      2. Hi Stewart
        Had a look into Black Corton
        GOING since 17 April 2017 won 3 times on good and once on good/firm
        DISTANCE the above wins were achieved between 2 mile 1 1/2 furlong to 2 mile 5 furlong
        Bryony Frost since 18 June 2017 she has been in the plate all 7 times that he has won
        Paul Nichols knows the time of day and doubt that he would run him if he did not expect a bold show and he would have taken into consideration ground and distance.
        Whether Black Corton will win that is another matter will have to wait and see.

    2. Well, that was a rough ride today…It was a good form race though and the only positive i could see was ULTRAGOLD, who stayed on again…The National will firmly be in his sights now and I believe that is well within his grasp after this run, cannot believe he is still 40/1 for National, that today form him was form busting as he doesn`t like undulating tracks! Anyway, as for the rest, Ibis ran poorly, no excuses there…Cogry did well, but, think he too likes things his own way, how many times has he come full of running to just miss out, or, completely down tools…Sam used to get a tune out of him, but, this only my interpretation, those long distance chases are now starting to take there toll on him…
      As for the hurdle, no complaints really, think both horses did exactly as i said on the tin, but, beaten by better horses on the day.
      All in all for me a bad day at the office, but, at least everyone else is in near enough the same boat. Slim pickings all round and will have a quick look over the water tomorrow, then, nothing till Saturday at Haydock on Saturday..

  6. Ok we all know after timing is frowned upon but I thought I’d share a 330/1 losing bet that may somewhat console those that backed Poeringhe Ginger as a single yesterday!

    1 Rock Bottom
    5.15 Wolverhampton (Race 3)
    (Win and Each Way)
    Live Stream 01/11/2019 None
    Best Odds applied, price updated to SP.

    2 Flaming Marvel
    6.15 Wolverhampton (Race 5)
    (Win and Each Way)
    Live Stream 01/11/2019 None

    3 Instant Replay
    2.50 Sedgefield (Race 4)
    (Win and Each Way)
    Live Stream 01/11/2019 None

    4 Trap 2
    8.53 Romford EVE (RACE 10)
    (Win and Each-way)
    01/11/2019 None

    5 Poperinghe Ginger
    3.30 Huntingdon (Race 6)
    (Win and Each Way)
    Live Stream 01/11/2019 None

    Somewhat gutted but not overly surprised.

    1. ouch, that does bring some perspective to my losing single! Bloody annoying all round. Just needed a bit of luck – mainly that leader to have hit one, as we’d have won then, but alas, not to be.

  7. RT B356 -11.75 SP -17.52 Slight refresh will see how these go…..
    2 Point bets
    130 Ke Amour De Nuit 6/4
    250 We Kapgarry 9/2
    125 Lin Reflektion 5/1
    235 Lin My Target 9/4
    1 Point Bets
    1240 Wa Texan Nomad 4/1
    115 Wa Robinshill 8/1
    140 We Wishful dreaming 7/4
    240 Ke Doux Pretender 7/1
    250 We Braavos 7/1
    325 We Lord County 8/1

  8. No time to go through the cards but,

    Systems selection:

    Karl Burke on the all weather – 4.30 Newcastle, Golden Guide, 12/1, 1 point each way.

  9. Rockpoint 2.25 Warwick 6/1
    Last two runs have really impressed me and think this one is massively progressive and should be able to overcome a 5lb rise. Same owners and colours as Thistlecrack who think a lot of him. Have also backed AP for the Albert Bartlett at 16/1

    Big Time Dancer 2.40 Kempton 22/1 ew
    Coming from an unfashionable yard and going against the trends and nick will probably end in disaster, but I was drawn in by the trainer and jockeys record and a high HRB rating relative to its weight. Jockey knocks off another useful 5lbs and bolted up LTO

        1. Oh he’s done it so well really – the Cheltenham Festival factor there really – a horse improving further for having a strong gallop to aim at, at a classy pace. Won like a fresh horse LTO, and is a very strong traveller- he’s enjoyed every moment of that. Can’t complain with the second, he’s run his race, other one a decent enough 4th having travelled well- wonder if ground a bit too quick when under pump late- he’s got a few handicaps in him, not sure at what level. Not sure that renewal as strong as some, but right horses up there it seems.



    2.15 W – Kauto Rico @ 9/4



    1pt win 2.00 W – Dyliev @ 7/1

    Another second yesterday, from the sole qualifier.

    K 3.45 – John Constable on 5th run @ 12
    N 4.30 – Highwayman on 6th run @ 8
    W 3.00 – Milansbar on 1st run @ 12
    …………Duel at Dawn on 2nd run @ 7
    F 1.35 – Jack Fiasco on 1st run @ 14
    F 2.10 – Blazer on 1st run @ 7/2
    L 1.25 – Desert Doctor on 3rd run @ 7/2
    W 3.35 – Holly Bush Hanry on 7th run @ 12

    3.30 Highway Robber BOG 16/1
    4.00 Paparazzi BOG 3/1
    4.30 Molten Lava BOG 9/2

    12.50 Lingfield Spiced BOG 6/1
    3.15 Kempton Billy Longford BOG 10/1
    3.35 Warwick Black Lion BOG 7/1

  13. Hi all, though that I will put my head above the parapet!!

    Here goes. All 1 point win @ prices as when bets placed.

    Plus EW Trixie


  14. James… I haven’t had time to do a through the card, sorry! Fridays into Sat can be tricky…
    there are a few tips/stats quals dotted around anyway… bar 3pm tips, I haven’t looked in much depth at following, albeit did look at Rock on Rocky and decided against tipping him – that may well be a positive for his chance haha…

    12.40 – Texan Nomad
    1.15 – Rock On Rocky (no forlorn hope, may try make all, but so poor LTO, and plenty with younger legs line up but may get a spin for change) I don’t really like Baby King’s chance personally.

    3.00- tips for that, Cogry / Un Temps (no money which is a concern!) … 3 stats picks dotted also, Carole’s for w1, Impulsive Star, Ibis… at prices prob prefer Carole’s out of those 3 if you wanted another, but of course do leave room to pick out your own.

    3.35 – Nick’s tipped BlackLion / NotwhatIam may give you a run for money back at this trip and looks here to run his race.

    No views on the other three races.

  15. Today’s…….

    Ling’ 12.50 ..Mrs Benson…… 8.0
    Ling’ 1.25 ..Reflektor………. 7.0
    War’ 1.50 ..Secret Investor. 5.5

    Back with an update for late afternoon and evening about 3.00.

  16. Just wondered what everyone thought of Skybet.
    On Monday I drew £50 out of my account with them to go out for a few beers with some mates. It is so long since I deposited with them that I had to register a new card, deposit £5 and then withdrew £55.
    Yesterday I backed one of Colin’s bets; A Sure Welcome, with them at 5/1. As everyone knows, it won at 7’s but only got paid out at the 5’s (no BOG)
    I queried this and got this back:-#

    Hi Michael Webster,

    Thanks for your E-mail

    After a recent review by our trading team, it has been decided that this account requires tighter liability management. Unfortunately this means the account will no longer be eligible for any of our free bet promotions (including Sky Bet Club and Money Back refunds)

    In addition, any bets place swill no longer apply for Best Odds Guaranteed and will be settled at the price option taken upon placement.

    This decision has been made in full accordance with the Sky Bet’s Terms and Conditions.

    This decision is final and will not be overturned. However, your account will continue to be reviewed and this may be lifted in future.

    If you have any further queries please do not hesitate to contact us.

    Kind Regards,

    Customer Care Team

    Nice of them to let me know after they have ripped me off don’t you think? Its my own fault really, fancy having the temerity to withdraw £50 out. We are allowed to bet but not allowed to win are we?

    1. If they hadnt alerted you prior to you placing the bet I think they’ll have no choice but to pay you at 7/1. You made the bet under the terms that you had BOG, they cant just change that post-race.

      Contact @boycottbetfred on Twitter who will certainly offer you advice

    2. Hi all

      Been looking on for a couple of months. I think Mike’s experience is a good starting point for a debate. He really shouldn’t be surprised. The bookies aren’t your friends and exist to make money. If you’re making money from them or even show that you might make money at some point in the future they will close you down. I have lost money with some but have taken better than sp and that’s enough. I have tried to keep my bets small which has kept some accounts open but in recent days the Tote and Racebets have stopped my bets. Last year Ladbrokes, Coral and Betbright did the same. Most don’t have the decency to tell you you just find you can’t get on the next time you bet. If you have any aspirations to making money from horseracing you have to move your operations to the exchanges where you have a long term fighting chance. There are some great tipsters on here but most post the night before when the liquidity on the exchanges on most week days is poor. I fully understand that tipsters and punters with accounts want to take the best prices but this is not a long term option. I also understand that many of us don’t have the option of betting during the day because of work commitments. Just wondered what others think, i know Colin is no fan of the bookies to put it mildly.

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