Members Daily Post: 11/01/19 (complete)

Tips x3 . write up, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Huntingdon

1.00 –

Twenty Twenty  (HcH) I3 9/1 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

King Cool  (HcH) I3 G1 20/1 S1 S2A S5

2.00 –

Fly Home Harry  (micro class) 8/1 

Minmore Present  (m runs) 13/2 

Debacle   (m TJC) 16/1 S2A 

 

Sedgefield

1.20 –

Best To Come   (HcH) H3 G3 7/4 

Danceintothelight   (m class) H3 I1 G1 11/4 S4 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143)

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Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/130,61p, +25.8, 1 point win)

1.20 Sedg – Best To Come – 5/2 (BV/Betf) 9/4 (gen) 2nd 5/4, well the horse is clearly tricky as I feared, but i’ve no idea why Hughes hasn’t stoked him up a lot earlier as he stayed on to the line, i’d rather him hit the front and pulled himself up, then do that, but there we go. Twice now i’ve dived in on relative shorties that I feared may have an attitude problem/had yet to win, and fingers burnt. I’ll learn my lesson now. 

2.00 Hunt – Minmore Present – 13/2 (gen)  NR

3.30 Hunt – Poperinghe Ginger – 9/2 (gen)

that’s all, 09.15, write ups…

Best to Come… I thought this one should be 7/4 or even 6/4 and he’s the one to beat for me. My confidence comes from his run here 16 days ago, his first for KD… Flowery beat him there, and he came out yesterday and some how won off 100, having hung for an age up the straight before the rail came to his rescue, where he somewhat flew. He beat an in-form unexposed Sam England horse there, as did the selection in his last race. She had one finish 4th there who has since demolished a field up at Ayr. For a Sedgefield class 5 the form doesn’t get much stronger really – and Millie The Minx was going to be well beaten I think, before she came down late on- and she’s a good yardstick, esp when assessing Hear The Chimes form. Coincidentally his win over CD LTO was 1 second quicker than the selections, but on officially good ground. Our race was won on soft. The selection did respond for pressure there and now Hughes jumps on. This horse raced prominently that day and should sit behind McCains. The one niggle, having watched it back, was his head carriage – i’m not sure if he was just looking around  a bit, but did respond to pressure. I may get what I deserve for one this short that’s yet to put his head in front, as I did with the Williams horse at Ludlow, but that hot form has just lured me in. He repeats that last run – and he’s entitled to progress – he wins this in my view. He jumped well that day and I think he looks overpriced, even at what could be deemed a short price. Danceintothelight will give it a good go from the front but he’s not getting any younger and is open to attack from younger legs. Hopefully Hughes doesn’t let him get too far away as I suspect he’ll be the one to overhaul late on, and if mine doesn’t take the spoils I suspect this one will. Hear The Chimes is in form, or was when last seen, he’s since had a wind op and 64 days off. He’s 10, had 30+ hurdle runs, and is usually held up further back – I can leave him at <6s. If he runs his race he won’t be far away and those 3 mentioned should be the first 3, on what they’ve done recently/how the race should pan out. 

Minmore Present – Moore’s are going well enough and in class 4 handicap chases at the track he’s 5/19,7p in the last 5 years. It’s a target track of sorts for this grade of chaser and he’s the most interesting in this race by quite some way. He’s a former point winner, is unexposed, and could show himself to be very well handicapped at some point. He ran OK LTO on his first run of the season and i’m not sure 2m5f around the very tight (7f circuit) Fakenham suited him. He steps up in trip on a more galloping track – well certainly more galloping than Fakenham, and has a long straight here in which to wind up. He’s hinted at promise over fences having watched his recent runs back – at Fontwell in that Novice chase he was 9L behind a 140 horse, and wasn’t given a hard time. The front two weren’t bad either, with the winner since progressing again this season winning a decent handicap at Ascot. For a horse currently rated 97, he did as well as could be expected there. He does need to tidy up his jumping but will be getting better with experience and the pace of this race/the added time he should have over this trip/track, should help, as will carrying 4lb less on his back than LTO. In part i’ve gone with him because this somewhat resembles a Veteran’s Chase and he has younger legs with his best days ahead of him. Sonoftheking  is the most interesting and I wouldn’t put anyone off a saver at 6s or so, but he’s not getting any younger and this ground may be lively enough for his older legs. He did run well LTO for a long way and I can see why there’s money for him. Wood Pigeon is short enough for one who has to prove his stamina, which he may do, but 2/1 for one you’re not 100% sure will see it out (or others may see it out better) seems short enough to me. I wasn’t sure why Fly Home Harry should repeat his win in this race last year -the 8 day break from his last run doesn’t suggest this has been a plan, but a jockey switch and they remove the headgear that’s been worn for a while- that may have some impact but he’s exposed and I wanted to take him on. I’m guessing on fitness with Johnny Yuma and i’m not in the sort of form to be doing that, even at his odds! He’s an unexposed 6 year old so a danger, but he’s shown very little to date. Arthur’s Reuben needs more for me but maybe the wind op will work wonders for his finishing effort. He’s now 0/12 in his career but only his 2nd chase start. I looked at Debacle but again he hasn’t shown anything yet in his career, and doesn’t even have a point win to his name. I watched his last race and yes clearly he wasn’t expected to do much against the front two there- but they dawdled for most of that and he had plenty of time to measure his fences, unhurried- and still put in an appalling round of jumping. Too much to prove for me at the moment but he’s lightly raced and is an S2A, so you never know. I can’t have Global Domination, another old timer, and I certainly can’t have the rest. For me this is about whether the selection runs his race- I think he’s overpriced if he does, and i expect a step forward on his second run of the season here, up in trip, at a target track for the trainer. He will make 13/2 look big if he puts it all together and will show himself to be well handicapped I think, one day. Hopefully starting today. 

Poperinghe Ginger… clearly I should have got up earlier, or backed her last night, to get the 13/2 but I still thought 9/2, 4s was big in the context of the price of the two above her- they can only be that price due to the trainers, not on what they’ve actually done on the track. This one has the best rules form in this by some way – those bumper runs were decent, and suggested they want to win with her as soon as possible- rather than a longer term handicapping project. The listed bumper run at Cheltenham was decent also and of the 10 mares to have run since, she’s the only one not to have placed, having got bogged down in Heavy LTO. The mare just in front of her at Cheltenham has since hacked up in a novice hurdle for Nicholls. It looks a decent enough race. The ground can be blamed for LTO, as can the class and maybe the trip. She’s raced in listed races the last twice (which suggests connections rate her) and now drops down into a C4 maiden hurdle. She’s up a couple more furlongs in trip but more importantly returns to better ground. She’s the one to beat here on all evidence to date for me, and she looked overpriced. Skelton’s PU LTO (found to be lame and is 6/4 here!?) and has had two goes in maiden hurdles when fancied, finishing second twice. Henderson’s hasn’t shown enough to justify that price either to my eyes. This trip may suit but she was sent off 5/4 LTO and the subsequent break suggests a problem. But she did win her point (in heavy), cost £100k, and is trained by Henderson. Clearly I won’t fall off my seat if she wins, but how the selections is more than twice the price I don’t know. I’ll trust Adam Norman’s notebook eye and hope this demolishes them. She’ll be here to run her race, and time will tell if she’s good enough! 

That’s all for today, fingers crossed one of them can win, two would be welcome, three maybe asking for too much, but you never know! 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

1.20 Sedg – Danceintothelight 11/4 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

3.20 Sedg – Conas Taoi 11/1 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow 

1.20 Sedg – Best To Come (11/1< guide) 7/4 

3.50 Sedg – Beast of Belstance (11/1< guide) 7/2 

Jockeys/Chasers

2.00 Hunt – Johnny Yuma (25/1<) 12/1 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

3.20 Sedg – Sideways 7/4 

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Adam Norman Notebook Horses

3.30 Hunt – Poperinghe Ginger 13/2

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Saturday Big Race Trends/pointers: Kempton + WarwickHERE>>>

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Results… I’m aware I need to update some of the links in the key, but don’t forget:- 

  • Results review 2018, inc the 4 main jumps strategies to end Dec, HERE>>> (a welcome 11/1 winner for S1 on Thursday) 
  • You can see a spreadsheet for Section 1 strategies and test zone in Dec HERE>>>

There will be a mid month update at some point next week, at which point i’ll bring those links up to speed to year End 2018. 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

39 Responses

  1. Just want to post a ” Keep your spirits up ” to all the members posting daily selections. Last week was my worst week for over 2 years and its staying ugly so far this week. Gambling on Horses has an uncanny knack of knocking you off your very comfortable pedestal when the game looks easy and after years it still catches me.

    If there’s one aspect of gambling that people discuss more, other than stakes its what to do when everything is going tits up. Its too easy to quote the value of banks and other age old nuggets like halve your stake, take a week off, go for a walk in the woods, stick 2 fingers up your arse and bet the first hoss you see !! Truth is there is no answer.

    The big negative with it is the loss of confidence, which for form reading selective punters can be soothed by a walk or break and carry on with your bank related bets. The bigger problem is with mechanical based bets where suddenly their winning percentages are questioned and one wonders whether the sample size was too small. All of which there is no answer to. Keep your faith in selective betting but always review mechanical systems even when the percentages are fantastic.

    I cant help but point out that Reckless Endeavour 2.10 Ling is a rediculous price at 20s when you consider its 12 lb better off with Take the helm at 3s. No doubt a turnaround is just round the corner hehe.

      1. Chubnut thank you for your Good Luck message,it is only the pre op check the op is on the 26th January for which cannot wait to have new hip and no pain!!!
        Cheers
        Colin

    1. Superb musings Chubnut.

      It reminded me that I really need to have a proper read of that document/article you posted, ‘Your Money And Your Brain’, link below for those interested… (direct open as online pdf)

      https://investimpactly.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/JasonZweigBrainMoney.pdf

      I’ve been for two walks in the woods this week, and they haven’t helped as yet!! The first one should have helped me land on Turning Gold, tipping wise, alas it didn’t. The second one involved kicking a log in frustration! Being crap for a prolonged period, or seemingly so, can be very frustrating and this game is mainly all in the head, as you’ve touched on before.
      Systematic approaches can always test confidence, clearly you’ve got to have trust in the rules etc. I suppose that’s why I especially like jumps S1 and S3A#, because they have ratings pointers and not just my trainer stats research, the former is a constant given their methodologies approaches, as is my yearly approach to trainer research -or tries to be. With any luck then a decent history may ensure a decent future, but time will tell!

      Sometimes, mentally, it is what it is- we are all fallible in this game when the losing runs come, and no amount of thinking about banks etc can help – maybe we all need some meditation/hypnosis! The reason only 1-3% win long term isn’t to do with lack of information etc – it’s all about what goes on in the mind over time I think. A constant battle, but again that’s why this game is so great, and so fulfilling when you’re in a good place and everything is working well!
      Josh

  2. COLINS BETS
    Well sharpening the pin appears to do the trick with a winner 10/1 to 9/2 and two 2nds at 12/1 and 3/1,must dash and polish the pin!!!
    Tomorrows bets will be on not sure what time but close to 10/10.30 as i can.
    Cheers
    Colin

  3. BHA an article on RP website, delighted to see that they keeping on top of serious issues concerning racing with a new rule change regarding all jump horses must now wear hind shoes and in Mick Easterby’s words Ridiculous and Tim Easterby along with Harvey Smith agree with him,worth a read.

    Lambourn Trainers today Jamie Osbourne video from Meydan said that Cliffs Of Capri main target is the 7th of Feb, and today it ran a fine 4th at 20/1 so possibly just a warm up race,maybe worth a look on the 7th.

  4. Couple of nice winners today Colin, well done. Also, a good luck from me for tomorrow and the 26th.
    Best wishes, Tom.

    1. Thank you Tom the winners on both Colins and Elite were both needed for the confidence, long losing runs will always happen from time to time but it always hurts when it happens,lets hope can follow up with a few more winners for the rest of the week.
      Cheers
      Colin

  5. Well done Colin,nothing like a winner or 2 to in”keeping your spirits up”.Well Natalie Currie is a fine rider bud sably Sybil Grand is not a very good horse.Last time Chubnut wrote i went through my losing runs.My longest was from 27th December to yesterday 39 losers in a row and I hadn’t a bet 28th-3rd Jan.What was i doing wrong,nothing,just the consequences of betting horses at longer prices.To put that loss in context in December had 2 winners at 20/1 and a good few between 8/1 and 16/1 prior to that losing run.Yesterday 20/1 and 11/1 winner.today 12/1 winner,there’s always a correction at some stage and with longish prices its not a smooth upward graph.Fortunately they were my own selections and there is a large woodpile outside to vent frustration.
    Callum Rodriguez has a sole ride 5.45 Wolverhampton around the 7/1 mark,but apart from it being his only ride,can’t find anything to recommend about Vin D’Hounner.He has a good few bookings at Newcastle Saturday and Karl Burke has entries at Southwell to look forward to sieving.

  6. Tips – 1.00 Huntingdon, Perhaps Bryony gets this one done on Zamoyski but I think that King Cool may be value at 25/1 on Betfair now. He is top of speed ratings on Geegeez, has a low weight and is trained by an in form Gary Moore. The horse drops back in distance here that may suit, so we will go 1/2 point each way at this price.
    2.50 Sedgefield, The Paddy Pie, 3/1 now. Sue Smith and Danny Cook team up on this one, who drops down in distance here, which may suit better than 3 miles? Again top of the speed ratings on Geegeez and at aged six has improvement still left. 2 points win.

    Good luck.

  7. Nothing from me today after the relief of a winner yesterday.

    Arthur’s Reuben 2.00 Huntingdon is owned by a distant relative, will certainly be trying and has a squeak. Jockey and trainer form are a bit off-putting.
    Hugh

    1. Funnily enough my mother in law knows Arthur very well and I spoke to him after the last race about the wind op. He wasn’t expecting it to win this time but I was on anyway!

  8. today’s selections.
    Huntingdon 1-00. Zamoyski 9-2 1pt win
    Huntingdon 2-00. Fly Home Harry 8-1 1/2 pt ew
    a very rare aw punt
    Lingfield 1-10. Um Shama 10-1 1/2 pt ew
    i do like one at Sedgefield
    3-20. Cabragh 7-1 1/2 pt ew but will only bet if all 8 stay in so not placing bet until much later.

  9. RT -2.75 SP -8.52
    100 Hu Twenty Twenty 15/2 & King Cool 18/1
    200 Hu Sonoftheking 13/2
    300 Hu Embole 11/4
    120 Se Danceintothelight 7/2
    250 Se Oak Vintage 5/2
    320 Se Cabragh 7/1 & Conas Tao1 10/1
    210 Li Mickey 10/1
    340 Li Mercers 7/2
    615 Wo White Shaheen 18/1
    745 Wo Our Man in Havana 11/1

  10. Just copied this from last evening when i was a bit late putting it on;
    Best day yet for me as a newbie. 3 Winners inc the S1 at 14.5 EW on Betfair, so after 7 W and 100 L and 6 successive net losing days i stuck with my approach, including a Bank for each and low stakes and got 3 W (plus placers inc the Irish one) from 8 Bets. This site is unique and i look forward, with patience to getting several hundred points of profit in 2019.
    would also add that i have compared above with the average Win % (inc E/W where recommended) of the strategies i am using. Most have 12 months stats but a few are over shorter period. Average 22 %, which illustrates statistically the ‘downturn’ over the recent past which is just shy of 10 %. Obviously a lot of variables in it all BUT if any new people, either to Racing, or this Site, i think we can all be encouraged by the anticipated ‘getting back to normal’ which will follow at some point – yesterday very encouraging 🙂

    1. Yep a much better day John, EW for S2A certainly the way to go, those nice priced placed horses keep that pile ticking over,or losing runs not feel as severe! S1 has had a good few weeks, 3 nice winners, and it should keep being a 60+ BFSP approach with any luck. and every little helps.
      We will have those days where all the stars align, and there are nice priced winners everywhere you look! It’s hoped that with a portfolio that the winners may be spread out, but sadly a lot of the time they can all just come in spikes, and very big ones at that. You’ve still got to be going when those come along, that’s the key, and hence starting small etc etc etc.
      This is a funny month, and well a funny season. Late Oct/Nov always tricky given so many returning after breaks – plenty of strategy quals in those days, for horses that just were not fit. Now we have the issue of no rain again, and a mix of good ground, and ‘good’ ground (that tacky horribly stuff, where it’s pure guesswork as to whether a horse will handle it – some do, many don’t, but hard to know pre race, even if they have form on ‘soft’, or good etc) And of course small fields etc. It’s a funny old season, and we shall see what impact that has on the spring festivals etc. I may need to ponder the type of horse/profile that will do well at Cheltenham this year, as it may be different from previous.
      Josh

  11. COLINS BETS
    Lingfield
    2.10 Take The Helm BOG 7/2
    3.40 Mercers BOG 9/2
    3.40 Zipedeedodah BOG 9/2

    ELITE BETS
    Huntingdon
    1.00 Cigarisi BOG 7/1
    2.00 Global Domination BOG 7/1
    Wolverhampton
    6.15 Flaming Marvel BOG 6/4
    7.45 A Sure Welcome BOG 5/1

    Pre Op very quick home for 9.10 all systems go.
    Colin

    1. Good news Colin, you’ll be back on your feet in no time after the op, ripping up the dancefloor again haha. Best of luck today, as always.

  12. HANDICAP CHASE SYSTEM

    RT-1

    3.20 S – Nortonthorpelegend @ 13/8

    FRANCIS SYSTEM BETS

    RT-7.67

    2pts win 2.00 H – Global Domination @ 7/1

    New lows yesterday – quite literally! Qualifier traded 1.05 IR and lost.

  13. 13.10 Lingfield – Um Shama – 1p @ 9.00
    13.50 Sedgefield – Trooblue – 1p @ 13.00
    14.50 Sedgefield – The Paddy Pie – 1p @ 3.75
    18.15 Wolverhampton – Illustrisime – 1p @ 19.00 (21.00 Ladbrokes)
    19.45 Wolverhampton – Sir Ottoman – 1p @ 6.50
    (Jan -7.6 BOG/-7.1 BSP)

    Mike

  14. Better day today. Afternoon possibilities……..
    Ling’ 1.10 Um Shama …….. 10.0
    Ling’ 1.40 Delicate Kiss ….. 10.0
    Ling’ 2.00 Mickey …………. 9.0
    Hunt’ 2.30 Fret D’estruval .. 6.0

    We won’t get them all but 2 are looking good at the moment. Back about 3.30 with the evening update.

  15. Warwick Classic Chase… I’m wading in with Cogry and Un Temps Pour Tout at 8s and 16s, 1 point win on each. Write ups etc will follow in tomorrow’s free post.

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