Members Daily Post: 10/01/19 (complete)

No tips, Section 1 (complete), test zone, updates

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Catterick

2.45 –

Sharp Response   (HcCh, micro’s TJC,class,class move)  ES+ H3 I1 6/4 S3A# WON 7/4 

Same Circus (HcCh. m age)  w1  ES+ H1 3/1 S3A UP

3.15 – Canadian George   (m class) 14  H3 6/1 

 

Leicester

12.35 – Otter Moon   (nov HcCh) H3 10/1 S2 UP

2.20 –

Master Work   (all Hc’s) 30  w2 H1 I1 G3 5/2 S4 UP

Turning Gold   (all Hc’s)  I3 G1 11/1 S1 S2 S5  WON 11/1>5/1 

 

Bonus Irish

C 12.50 – Load Up Time   (HcH) (added info: hncp debut)  20/1 S2A 4th 20/1 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: -2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143)

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Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/130,61p, +25.8, 1 point win)

No tips today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

2.45 Catt – Same Circus 3/1 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018//19 

LTO Winning Trainers

3.15 Catt – Flowery (10/1< guide) 9/2 

3.25 Leic – Alf N Dor (8/1<) 8/11

Trainers to Follow

2.20 Leic – Flashing Glance 9/2 

Jockeys/Chasers

3.25 Leic – Alf N Dor 8/11

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

3.25 Leic – Alf N Dor 8/11 

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NEW! Adam Norman Notebook Horses

I thought i’d pull my finger out and post these in here, all those mentioned by him to date are in my tracker, do refer to his notes in link below, not to be backed blind I don’t think, albeit a few winners over Xmas period. Please do track them yourself if you’ve any interest in his work etc, as I am liable to the odd posting error! 

(doc with all previous guest articles to date HERE>>>

3.15 Catt – Canadian George 

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Saturday Big Race Trends/pointers: Kempton + Warwick HERE>>>

 

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GOLF! These members’ posts are racing only, but just a reminder that ‘the Golf boys’ Colin and Martin C post their golf tips in the free posts, Colin put his up on Tuesday’s post in the comments, and Martin’s on Wednesday’s Free post. Hit the ‘home’ button to see all posts etc and indeed comment/ask any questions on those posts. I forget their combined profit for 2018, but it was decent! There’s usually the odd bit of chat and others chipping in (ahem). Anyway, thought i’d flag that on here, just the once, for those of you who like a flutter on the Golf. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

49 Responses

  1. Lough Kent Catterick 15:15 1pt e/w-11/1-This looks like a bad race and I was drawn to the selection who gets first time blinkers and I think his cunning trainer has found him a winnable race. The race looks devoid of any pace so I think they will kick on from the front here. The jockey has done this to go effect in the past and is worth her 7lbs. She has been on board for the horse’s last 3 wins. He is now lower than 2 of those wins. The last time they changed headgear he has been 1st and 2nd. Barring the fav this looks a sorry bunch. He shouldn’t have any ground concerns, plus he has won off these sort of breaks before and I expect him to go very close.

    1. He has certainly won in this class and the favourite may be flattered by its last run. Why do you think the selection will lead as it usually held up? It seems to be a Cartmel specialist which is a quirky track. Perhaps Catterick will suit better? As a disciple of yours I have followed you in on the selection.

      1. Educated guesswork I assume Martin. 1st blinkers … Can sometimes follow with a change of tactics as they are there to instill the flight instincts in a horse. I never understand why people put blinkers on and hold up a horse. And then the trainer /jockey MO … Jockey has form/ability to make all as Nick touches on, she’s done it before to very good effect on the likes of Bon Chic from memory. You’d hope connections would do their homework and realise no pace. Put all that together at the odds then it’s possible. Sounds like a weak race anyway and not necessarily a necessity for horse to win given as you say has won having been held up. He may be a Cartmel sepcialist due to being one of trainers fav hunting grounds and that’s where he’s aimed him etc. Left handed , speed, tight tracks clearly not a problem so this shouldnt be an excuse. Horse has raced prominently/led before also…I’m sure Nick will chip in if I’ve read that wrong!

  2. COLINS BETS
    Certainly tin hat time not the best start to 2019 however plenty of time to turn it around and January on past years is a good month,will be back later just sharpening my pin!!!
    Cheers
    Colin.

  3. Away in the morning so I’ll post tomorrow’s losers early 🙂
    1p win on each:
    13.20 Southwell – Acclaim The Nation (7/2) & Eternal Sun (11/2)
    14.20 Leicester – Flashing Glance (9/2)
    14.45 Catterick – Same Circus (100/30) & Sharp Response (7/4)
    (Jan -5.3 BOG / -4.9 BSP)

    Mike

      1. Thanks Chris, I am taking it very steady as a burst of over confidence undid all the good early work. Only 0.75pts down now after 32 bets.
        Hugh

  4. Another poor day for proper racing tomorrow,Conor Dore sometimes bags a big priced one and runs CollodiLeic 2.20,but it can be long periods before drinks,fine if you want a dry January.
    John Best runs African Blessing again but 7/2 is too short but really want them 10/1+ and not certain that his sole win in a bleak time is a turning point
    7.55Chelmsford Sybil Grand 10/1 bet365 8/1 generally
    Jamie Osborne’s record with 3 year olds at track 12+56 +45,6 of these came in 2018,so hopefully this is a trend rather than a one of,trainer is in fine form at present and jockey is competent and riding lots of winners.The horse is winless and trainer is putting blinkers first time,think George alluded to this tactic a few times.
    10/1 is fair enough all things considered, 8/1 not so good.
    It’s a bottom of the barrel race and anything could happen

    1. REF : OSBORNE AND HEADGEAR .
      just a heads up for my fellow “non abusive friends” on here ….. i have now trimmed this little angle albeit maybe a little too much but .. here goes

      Race Data – All of these categories specify only the types of races included.
      Submit
      Race Class
      Class 2 Class 5 Class 6 only
      Non Handicaps only
      years tested : 2016 2017 2018 2019
      Headgear applicable :
      Cheekpieces Visor Hood
      Horse Age NOT Between 4 And 5
      H-Run (with this type of Headgear) Exactly 0

      Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) P/L(BF)
      5 3 60 13.5 4 80 5 60 270 15.42

      gl/gb
      and keep on having fun like me …… just about 🙂
      p.s. i hope this copies and pastes ok ? … here goes …………………

      1. Hi George,
        Copy/paste/formatting is a terror on here at the moment, I am close to installing a new comments function which with any luck may help solve that! As well as just being an improvement all round.
        Josh

      2. Thanks for that George,that would exclude Sybil on the handicap point but it has been supported in the market from early 12/1-7/1,but its usually the 10 mins before that have any meaning

      3. Hi George
        I noted your comments about R Winston and D Ivory connection. I keep a close eye on that connection as Ivory is local to me. As a consequence I look for Winston when riding for others. Do you have any statistics regarding his association with other trainers.I have seem him landing punts with D C Griffiths and Mrs Barclay recently

  5. Tips:

    2.45 Catterick, Greyed A, 7/2 BOG, 2 points win. Dr Newland has the bottom weight in this race. Had a pipe opener and steps up to a marathon distance which may well suit. 3 wins from 7 starts in chases and looks to have further improvement to come.
    2.20 Leicester, Affaire D’Honneur, 7/1 BOG, 1 point each way. This does not look a good race and the selection has bottom weight in this handicap, won last time out but does come back in distance here?

    Good luck.

  6. RT B365 +3.75 SP -0.02
    100 cat Come on Charlie 11/8
    245 Cat Little Bruce 4/1 & Greyed A 7/2
    220 Lei Master Work 5/2 & Thounder 9/1
    1245 So Love Rat 5/1
    120 So Samovar 7/1
    225 So Jack the Truth 7/1 & The Right Choice 13/2
    415 Ch Sweet Nature 11/8
    445 Ch Pass The Cristal 11/1
    625 Ch Titan Goddess 33/1
    755 Ch Plucky Dip 10/1

  7. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    L 2.55 – Paddy A on 3rd run
    M 6.55 – Daring Guest on 4th run
    Festival
    L 2.20 – Turning Gold on 3rd run
    3m
    C 2.45 – Vieux Lille on 5th run
    AW
    C 4.45 – Foxrush Take Time on 7th and 8th run

    I’ll check the odds around 9 for the stats but will be sorting my mates bike after wasting hours looking for a non-existing problem due to his insistance that diagnostics are correct. Bollox, once he’d fu’d off to bed I found the fault in 5 mins and unless I’m pissed for the next few days he’ll be an ex mate. Martin W will know what I mean.
    GL

      1. one verse seems to fit pretty well:
        The longer I hold on and the longer this goes on
        The harder that it’s gonna be
        But it’s four in the morning and once more the dawning
        Just woke up the wanting in me 🙂

  8. COLINS BETS

    First of all at the Hospital tomorrow at 8.20 should be able to get the bets on maybe a little later
    Today’s bets
    COLINS BETS
    Southwell
    2.25 The Right Choice BOG 10/1
    2.25 Crosse Fire BOG 13/2
    Chelmsford
    6.55 African Blessing BOG 3/1

    ELITE BETS
    12.45 Southwell Sleepy Haven BOG 10/1
    7.55 Chelmsford Magicininthemaking BOG 11/4
    Colin

    1. Another poor day for novices over jumps with ridiculously small fields which don’t help either. I notice that we are back to good going which is also ridiculous given the time of year, so it’s not surprising that competitive races are so hard to find.

      So it’s another sand day for me and even that’s getting hard to find unexposed horses that are available at decent odds and will get even harder once we hit Feb’. Is nothing at Southwell of interest, at least nothing of interest that’s going to be available any where near the odds required at post time.

      Back later with Chelmsford.

      1. Nothing doing at Chelmsford either, but there are days when I don’t get any bets especially at this time of year. So sticking with the strategy in the hope of some better races as we approach the weekend.

  9. American Graffiti 5.15 Chelmford 10/1 ew
    Mitchell has won 4 of last 5 runners for Charlie Hills, including 1 other Godolphin debutant. This one was bought for 320,000 Euros so you’d hope it has a fair bit of scope. The Gosden horse is fav and won on debut and has been fairly heavily backed so is an obvious danger, so e/w looks the play.

  10. just finished last years accounts and ended with a healthy net profit of £6,200 after subs and memberships. starting banks were £2,000 so that’s a 310% return on the year. a special mention to Nick as a tad over £2,000 was from following his tips.
    starting bank this year is £1,200 as iv’e spent the lot and a bit more 🙂
    just shelled out £2,100 on a refurb for the Honda CB750 f2 Supersport, i’ll stick up a link to some photo’s when all the work is done for anyone interested.

    1. sorry martin … can i just get one niggling thought out of my head once and for all and put me out of my misery … did you ever work in the freight industry (exports) by any chance .. like me at heathrow airport …… i know there are more than one martin whittle’s in this crazy world of ours .. just a niggling thought in my tiny warped mind of mine …… sorry to pry ..it’s not a loaded question by the way 🙂

      gl/gb 🙂

    2. Blimey, you could have bought 4 new ones for that back in the day. Most fun I had was on a 550f1 til a drunken pillock in a car wrote it off.

  11. A low power suggestion:-
    300S Juan Horsepower – Only run here was in a CD 0-85 (beaten less than 6 lengths) and this is a 0-60; EW @ 20/1 suggested.

  12. Hi Josh, given current slow/quiet period with meetings and qualifiers, will it be possible to update the jumps strategies/results PDF? I know the last results were recorded to the end of Nov, and I do find it handy to save the PDF format update, as well as using it to record a paper version colour code/traffic light update across the systems for SR, LSP and ROI%, as well as being able to mark the current status as A+++ downwards, a la credit ratings agencies.

    I try to do this for Titus’ update of your 24f/daily/festival&big race on a monthly basis, although I appreciate it isn’t always possible for you to update these PDF results format monthly, although I thnk it is the ideal way to broadly record these.

    Many thanks for whenever these strategies can be sone in this format

    1. Hey…
      I updated the main 4 strategies to end of December, and discuss their progress every 2 weeks in Section 4 updating the ‘where to start strategies’ every month…
      I do need to update that doc in Key to end of Dec, but the main 4 have been updated, were detailed in Section 4, and can also be found in the 2018 review…

      http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2019/01/04/rtp-2018-results-review/

      You can find a spreadsheet for everything in section 1/ test zone up to end Dec HERE>>>
      http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/dec-2018-update/

      (that includes Dec updates/results)

      (i should add that to the Key)

      I do need to use that to update the relevant links in the Key, which I know was last done for end of Nov. I’ll get that done asap, most likely next week when I return back to Liverpool, I’m still down at the family home at the moment. They’ll be a mid month update next week also, with the spreadsheets updated.

      I’m trying to use some of the down time to get my tipping head in a better place, with plenty of pondering!! Time will tell whether that does the trick. 🙂

      Points noted,
      Josh

  13. Was the worst class 3 event I have seen in a long time but nice winner at 12/1,wouldn’t touch except for the stats,that’s the value of this site

    1. Yep, a nice result for S1, 3 nice winners for that since Xmas I think. Always come in little spurts.

      Hmm… there was plenty to like about his chance, but i’ll keep those musings and another wrong late call to myself haha. I’m not surprised he did that, but when you’re not feeling in good form, those PUs look very big to the eyes! Anyway, I shouldn’t moan too much. I tipped him at Chelt and he had the best form in this by quite some way. Was all about that PU and whether he’d run his race, wrong call at odds but that happens, esp when you’re in a rut!
      Josh

  14. Best day yet for me as a newbie. 3 Winners inc the S1 at 14.5 EW on Betfair, so after 7 W and 100 L and 6 successive net losing days i stuck with my approach, including a Bank for each and low stakes and got 3 W (plus placers inc the Irish one) from 8 Bets. This site is unique and i look forward, with patience to getting several hundred points of profit in 2019.

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