Members Daily Post: 09/01/19 (complete)

Tips x2 + write ups, Section 1 (none), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc


1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs]









Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  –  … or failing that… 



2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2018: -22.2, 2019: -2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143)  


Daily Tips

1.35 Donc

Katie Connell – 1 point win – 16/1 (WH/BV/UniB) 14/1 (the rest) UP

Grand Enterprise – 1 point win – 33/1 (bet365/WH) 28/1 (gen) UP

well those risky darts didn’t pay off sadly, and of course the 1-2-3 were the top 3 in the market, some minor saving grace in highlighting the right one of those three below, but that’s clutching at straws. No money for Grand enterprise, travelled well enough for a long way but ultimately nowhere, Katie Connell never travelled at all really on second circuit, so return to this ground/blinkers didn’t do the trick.

It could be argued that when out of form (as sadly, i appear to have been for an age across the tipping portfolio, well esp big races) it’s best not attacking a weak class 5 handicap hurdle with two rather wild darts that need some explaining. It would be easier not to bother but there’s some method to my madness and I couldn’t resist a poke at these two. 

Katie Connell – she hacked up for Willie Mullins in July 17 in a Cork bumper – it was on Good, which is key here. The second horse that day, who she thumped, is a 114/116 animal on official ratings. She was visibly outpaced thereafter before being sold/moved to Hobbs. She ran at Newton Abbot where she went ok but again clearly outpaced and travelling outside of her comfort zone/cruising speed – (i’ve been reading ‘Centaur’, the memoir of Declan Murphy, pages 100-146 or so are a marvel when it comes to understanding pace from a jockeys perspective, but, I digress… i’m enjoying it anyway). She was 8l behind a 106 horse there, 16L behind a 116 horse. She’s since run twice on Heavy ground and considering her sire’s hurdlers are 1/71 on Heavy, and given how she’s ran, and her bumper form, i’m not really sure she’s enjoyed it! She hasn’t run badly though- well not at Ffos Las where she plugged on. At Exeter she stumbled badly early on in the race and was looked after there on in, but plodded home/completed. She now returns to decent ground and takes a big step up in trip – it looks worth a go to my eyes and they are the reasons for an improved show here. They also fetch for the blinkers which is interesting to a point – Well the sire’s offspring are 2/7,2p in 1st blinkers since start of 2014, and while Hobbs isn’t a prolific user of this headgear, he’s had a couple of winners 1st time out in them. I suspect she’ll race prominently here which was also another tick, possibly in a race without much pace bar Stonemadforspeed but he’ll fade at some point I think. In any case she could be in a no excuses position. Of course they may try and hold up up over this new trip, and of course the blinkers may have an adverse effect. But, in a weak/open enough looking race to my eyes I get 14s/16s to find out. 46% of the trainer’s horses have won or placed in the last 14 days, the jockey has ridden her before, and he’s 6/30,13p in the last two years on Hobbs handicap hurdlers. Hobbs doesn’t send many to Donny but is 3/14,7p with his handicappers here in the last 5 years. Her problems could be deeper than ground/trip of course, but i’m sure she has handicap wins in her from this mark and will prove herself to be well handicapped at some point on decent ground. The market doesn’t really mean much with the Hobbs yard and unless she drifts beyond 25s I won’t be concerned what the price does, but of course if she’s nibbled at that may be a positive….

Grand Enterprise…well if the one above is a poke then i’m not sure what this one is and maybe it’s a sign that I need putting out to grass for a while 🙂 But, there is plenty of method to my madness with this one… firstly his only career win was in a C5 handicap hurdle over course and distance. He raced in a C5 on his next start but has been kept to C4s/C3s since. Clearly I’m pinning most of my hopes around him returning to that sort of form as clearly if he does he isn’t a 28s+ shot in this line. The question then is why should he do so, especially with two PUs next to his name. (something clearly went amiss for the first of the three PUs, given the break that followed) This horse has gone very close after a PU before which could be seen as a positive. The first one two starts ago was after 400+ days off, sent off 50/1 here in a c4, and he was never put into the race. A gentle reintroduction back to the world of racing. His run LTO is much much better than it appears on paper to my eyes. He’s clearly a good ground animal and the soft wouldn’t have suited, but he was bang there as they jumped the last down the back straight. He was in there pitching around 117-122 horses before tiring rather abruptly – he broke a blood vessel there, those exertions clearly taking their toll – that’s probably another reason why you want a big price here, but they now fit the tongue tie, and he returns to calmer waters on better ground. Clearly i’m not going to fall off my seat if it transpires that he’s simply a horse with major problems (some internal) who tails off again. I just find it interesting that they return back here and he’s one of not very many horses in this proven in conditions- as he’s not exactly exposed. He’s another that could race prominently and be in the right spot. I suspect the market will guide with this one to an extent and given the trainer is 1/97,8p with handicappers sent off 22s+, I could know my fate come the off if he’s still languishing around this price. There are valid excuses for his last two runs, and at this price i’ll roll the dice. IF he could get back to that winning form here, he would out-run these odds…

The dangers…well clearly I want the selections to run their race as I think both have the ability to win this race if they do. Maybe i’m an idiot for taking on the top three in the market here but they’ve all been running in weak races and I don’t think any of them are chucked in as such. Clearly they’re all in form though, which will count for plenty here…but… Jonjo’s didn’t beat much LTO and that was in soft. This good ground (which I hope isn’t tacky/dead – i don’t think it will be given it’s good/good to firm and they’ve been watering) is a question and that win came on his first go RH. I don’t think he’s overpriced but he looks like he stays well. Uno Mas may have been fortunate to win a weak race LTO but he is open to improvement – however he has to prove his stamina stepping up in trip. He did run as if he may improve further for it, but that question may make 4/1 look only ‘ok’.

Diggin Deep could be the biggest danger back up in trip as of those three his form may be the best – he looks sure to run his race which may be good enough, and his run LTO was decent enough, bumping into one. Nothing has really franked the form of either of his two wins though and he keeps creeping back up in the weights – he is open to attack from anything which may now have more in hand, but he’s solid and probably looks the most interesting of the front three. 

I suppose Cangodemayo may be of some mild interest on handicap debut, up markedly in trip. Pauling is only 2/42 with handicap debutants though and she’s really shown very little to date, not even really a glimmer of promise. But it is the sort of race where one like that may pop up. I tipped Dauphiness at Warwick where she was awful, and she just hasn’t shown anything yet. She gets 1st CP and a step up in trip, and decent ground. It would be annoying were she to find some ability from somewhere but is best watched i think, even at those lofty odds. 

So, we shall see firstly if i’m right to take on the top 3 in the market, and secondly whether i’ve landed on the right ones to take them on with. 



Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/130,61p, +25.8, 1 point win)

None today. 


3.Micro System Test Zone

Richard Hobson (33/1< guide) 

2.45 Donc – Defi Sacre 10/1 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

3.15 Donc – Plantagenet 9/4 


Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 


2.20 Taunt – Romain De Senam 7/4 

LTO Winning Hurdlers

1.35 Donc – Uno Mas 4/1 2nd 9/2 


4.Any general messages/updates etc



Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

43 responses

  1. Katebird Doncaster 15:50 1.5pt win 5/1-Katebird looks too big here. She was a solid 3rd behind a horse who went on to win her next 2 and is now rated 20lbs higher ( Really Super, the mare Josh has a stake in) (winner of that race had yet to race). She would have needed it last time and the ground would have been too soft. Both trainer and jockey are in good form and trainer is 2/2 in handicaps at the track and 2/4, 3p overall. Both the front two in the market are rated on potential and that their new trainers can improve on Mullins and Elliott which is often tough to do. She will definitely handle the ground better than most here and should be closer to favourite.

    1. A nice each way double on Monday, good effort. I can get on to a few bookies/exchanges here in Cancun and so was on. Resting out of the sun in the sports bar watching Chelsea – Spurs, Spanish commentary!

  2. The Rodriguez Effect

    Would have written this last night except my internet would only run for a few seconds and cut out and only came back at 3pm today.
    In the distant past Josh did some research on this talented jockey,i don’t think many of us really took it any further.With the awful jumps action I began thinking(sometimes dangerous).
    Anyway decided to have a look into his record,especially the all weather,he is prolific at Newcastle but is beginning to turn the other all weather tracks black too.
    He is mostly associated with Dalgleish and Dods so usually they would have first call on his services.
    Following his other rides today would have yielded between 20-30 pts profits.
    4.10 Servo-won after break last time ,had broken blood vessels previously,Lyn Sidall in Form,jockey has had few winners for her recently.The way he won might be another win in him if he stays sound
    7.15 Pea Shooter-Last win was under rodriguez,Price

  3. Evening,

    Well, it`s been far from great racing over the last couple of days, so, that has given me time to focus my eyes on the big chase on Saturday at Warwick. I know some people don`t like ante post, you don`t need to take my recommendations, but, here they are anyway!
    RED INFANTRY 12/1 gen 1pt win
    He ticks all the boxes here and I believe the stats say he is carrying just the right weight, just the right age and has one victory in his last three, his price is available now at 12/1 and i do believe it won`t be that come Saturday, his all the way win at this Course was a real pearler, he absolutely drove them all into the ground and i believe if the same tactics are used this Saturday he could well do the same! I have asked William Hill for a quote for The National, they have offered me 100/1 , he is related to Red Marauder, so a National bid may be possible, but, whether that is this year, who knows. for a fiver each way at potentially 100/1 it may be worth finding out. The winner of this 2 years ago, One for Arthur and last years winner Milansbar went on to run well in the National and the race is fast becoming a stepping stone for “The” National.
    IBIS DU RHEU 9/1 HILLS 1pt win
    This one fits the bill on the Paul Nicholls front, yes 9/1 is short, but, he is a class above some of these ,his owner John Hales has said he is the best they have had him for 2 years and a National may be in the offing, he has a lot of pace and does jump fences well, which is the name of the game, again, this one is also available at 50/1 for National frame and I do believe he is off there after here…
    Now, people may say I am abandoning my National favourite ULTRAGOLD, well, maybe, maybe not, he will not like the undulations and if he does run it will be in snatches, (still believe he is now a spring horse and will still be half asleep round here, different horse when the tape goes up in April!).
    So, there you go, my musings for the big race on Saturday, take them or leave them, but, as always good luck and hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound!

    1. Hi Stewart, just looking at that race, it looks like Red infantry n/r, I was wondering why the bookies are only paying 1/4 odds 1,2 pl
      cheers Brian

        1. He is a non runner Stewart, maybe not officially yet in terms of decs stages, but the trainer tweeted saying he won’t be running.

          1. Just seen.Bu##er!! Though he was looking good for it…watch and shoot…watch and shoot! Will leave it now till Saturday!

          2. Well that’s the nature of the beast but you’ve made it pay the few times you’ve waded in AP, a few winners since blacklions becher win nabbed at much bigger odds than day of race odds/Sp!

          3. Yes, agreed, nature of beast! It seemed odd that he came in as short as 7/1 then suddenly got pulled. I’m no conspiracy theorist but….

  4. Tips – 3.25 Taunton, Road To Riches, 8/1 for 1 point each way. I have dipped into hunter chases with a prolific winner between the flags, up to three miles here against the hotpot Shantou Flyer. We nees the eight to stand their ground (some hope).

    Systems selections – Karl Burke on the all weather but not Southwell.

    12.50 Lingfield, So Hi Storm, 11/2 BOG.
    1.25 Lingfield, Dancing Ballerina, 4/1 BOG.

    Both 1 point win.

    Good luck.

    1. A decent place Martin but a ridiculous 65p R4 somewhat dents the profits. Surely there has to be a better and fairer way to deal with NR’s.

  5. RT B365 +4.5 SP +2.25
    135 Don Uno Mas 7/2 & Jaycols Star 10/1
    315 Don Thomas Todd 4/1 & Fifty Shades 4/1
    220 Ta Romain De Senam 7/4
    255 Ta Not That Fuisse 5/2
    340 Li The Bearfighter 6/1
    745 Ke Human Nature 5/2

  6. 1 selection for today, got tied up yesterday so full result update will be later on today.
    Doncaster 1-35. Dauphiness 18-1 b365 4 places 1pt ew
    i have had a small saver on Stonemadforspeed just in case he has his racing head on.

    1. found myself with a few minutes spare so i’ll share my logic on what is on paper an odd selection, well supported 2 runs ago and quickly pulled up when chance had gone, never put into contention lto looked like they were trying just to get some rhythm into the jumping. up in trip here and first time cheekpieces i would be happier if some money came in but J E Moore looks an interesting jockey booking (won this race last year). nicking Josh’s expresion a could be anything type and i’ll roll the dice on this hunch.

      1. GL Martin, yep this race has one of those feels about it (cue market leader romping home haha) – i’d have liked to see more personally but she is lightly raced, and maybe this ground/trip will be the making of her and CP. Daly wouldn’t have many this lowly rated in his care, so be interesting to see if they can find the key. Best of luck.

    Shantou Flyer on 2nd rund @ odds on …….no bet
    Fox Appeal on 4th run @ 11/4
    K 6.45 – Dotty Ground on 1st run @ 11/2

    12.50 Axel Jacklin BOG 11/2
    1.55 Uncle Jerry BOG 5/2
    7.15 Viola Park BOG 9/2


    7.45 Kempton Human Nature BOG 3/1

  9. Yesterday was a damp squib for me, but no damage done which is often the case in these small runner novice affairs where the lack of competitive runners tends to nobble the market. Hopefully the quality will improve as the month rolls on. Today’s bulletin will be posted at 12.40 with an update at 3.00 for Kempton.

    1. Only 2 this afternoon both @ Lingfield…..

      Ling’ 12.50 Grandstand…… 8.0
      Ling’ 1.55 London Rock…. 6.0

      Back with the update later

      1. Very disappointing run from London Rock mainly due to the jockey forgetting to remove the blindfold before the gates opened. Lost a good 8 lengths only to finish just under 4 from the winner. Luck has smiled on me the past 10 days so I guess a spell of ‘punter’s karma’ is not unreasonable.

        Nothing for me tonight…. back tomorrow.

  10. Quite day on here so for you mature racing fans can you remember Trainer Ken Payne very good trainer in his day always remember from his book being a major gambling stable he used to put Lester Piggott in the plate and all the mugs would lump on,pushing his 2nd string out to silly odds and it would romp home with Kens wad on.
    Another time he had legged Lester up and the horse had only took a couple of steps and Lester looked down and said this one cannot win today,Payne always claimed that Lester was the finest horseman ever.
    Time caught up with Ken Payne and he did a disappearing act to Australia for most people in racing were after him especially the bookies,unable to recall if he was banned for no longer have the book.

    1. Must admit i hadn’t heard of Ken Payne for a while – I thought he was the trainer of the infamous Flockton Grey fiasco but he wasn’t (the horse was a ringer) and worth reading about – I’m sure many on here are far too young to remember the incident but it was a major racing scandal of its time

      A little bit from Wiki (copyright preserved) if you want a quick read –

    2. Happy days Colin, I remember ‘window’ Payne very well indeed.

      Don’t know if it’s just me but the game seemed so much easier back in those days even with the tax 🙂

      Once computers starting to make a more common domestic appearance the game became so much harder. Everybody always thinks computers have made things much easier for us punters to win but not so in reality. You hard to put in the hard work for your edge in those days and few were prepared to do it. Now everything is available at the click of a mouse instead of spending hours wading through the loose leaf form books or Handicap Book pull-outs 🙂

      1. Hi Bottlabroon,first of all are you a Geordie clue in the name?
        In the village you wanted a bet and you went to someones(cant remember his name)back door and they took the bet whilst keeping an eye out for the police,after they legalized bookmakers we had the golden years with the independents bookmakers who would back their own opinion and you could often achieve a much higher price than today blanket prices on Saturday nothing but accountants.
        Used to go into the bookies and results were put up on a blackboard with a lady with a gorgeous body and an ultra short skirt which ever males eyes followed when she had to stretch to reach the top of the board,apologies to you ladies but that was what it was in those days,the eye candy kept the blokes in the shop losing their hard earned money.
        Was it the Sporting Chronicle who did the loose leaves files.
        Either getting old and past it those were the days and i do feel that they were,for they had real characters such as the African Chief do you want a tip it formed a wonderful and entertaining day at the races.

        1. Not a Geordie myself Colin but I emigrated up here from Lancashire when I married a Geordie back in the 1970s so I reckon I’m just about fully adopted now 🙂

          Betting shops were already legal when I started out although you still had the illegals operating in most of the factories and mills.

          Had shares in a few horses with the legend that was Pat Rohan back in the day. Spending a day at the races with Pat was an education as he would stand, hands on hips, in the centre of the parade ring surveying the field for about 5 minutes before telling you which one would win. Happy days.


          1. Hi Bottlabroon,

            Were you around Pat Rohan when he had an unraced 2yo filly by the name Katrina i think, and took it to Chester for the 2yo maiden drawn 15/15 jumped out and away never got near her, it won easily, i was on course that day and the price was 10/1 across the boards and never moved,only backed it because i read an article about it in the Racing Specialist, just wondered what happened to her after?.

          2. Hi Paul,
            The name sounds vaguely familiar but I can’t place the horse. Pat had a certain Michael Stoute as his pupil assistant back in the early days.

    3. We used to distribute bets for a commission agent in Edgware and can assure you Ken had plenty of losers sadly, along with many more trainers. The best info we ever got was stables from Lewes with Ray Goldstein riding, coup after coup.

  11. Love it when you find £30 in Betfair you don’t remember putting in there. Anyway, Tip top Tim in Josh’s topping race has shortened into 16s from about 125/1 so I nabbed a few quid on the machine for interest.

    1. Well he ran better than my two! A promising enough run of sorts, to a point down the home straight, be interesting what they do with him given age etc- an odd gamble, but wouldn’t have taken much money, and maybe connections had a go track side which forced price down.

        1. oh i’m glad at least you read the write ups and take note of the italic underlined haha- as do I !! When i’m in form, clearly that gets flipped and tipped – as with others in recent days – that extra step. I won’t say anything as to watching Special Prep just romp home, unbacked, and obviously not tipped- i could scream at my mediocrity at the moment. I keep thinking it will click, yet im stumbling around. Reading things ok as per write up/dangers but plenty has been abject. I can’t be thinking in the right way at the moment, esp the final deliberations. Or i’m over thinking. All in the head. Frustrating. But on I plod.

  12. Josy,I had a look at Special Prep too but a pile of logs that needed chopping got in the way.Matt at geegeez had a book out just before christmas where he had an article included a piece on sp and percentage winners.Can’t remember exactly if it was over 20/1 or 25/1,but the conclusion was that these over that price were very poor value,(the exception maybe being cheltenham and other big festivals,my thoughts not Matts),the percentage of winners over that price were something dreadful,i think less than 2%,was an eye opener anyway.
    I think what you may be suffering is a bit of information overload,maybe that’s why I am reluctant to employ any additional tools to my analysis

    1. Yep, you may be right, and trying to find that magic big priced bullet – of course when you go for one 16s-33s, you’re hoping they get backed/you’ve got true value.
      Part of it is just a lack of clear thinking, i’m happy enough with how i’m reading plenty (also some just abject reading of some horses/races) but the final stages of deliberations are poor, the wrong decisions, races played in etc. That’s in part due to not asking the right questions, some over thinking, and not trusting my instinct enough/feel, which I know i’m better at in my head- just not clicking as it did in Oct-Dec 17, and then first half of 2018 in big races. It’s been shite all round in truth since Galway! The ‘best of’ has shown some promise. I need a higher threshold for going in, and looking more at those that should be likely to run their race/have some decent recent form to look back on, and of course reading the top of the market correctly. What I was doing taking on Venetia’s winner at Chepstow god only knows, and with a 4YO who had a very tough race at Sandown – on reflection, but 4s. I mean that was poor. My assessment of the front of the market was spot on in that race above and yet it was a cue for me to pick some others- can maybe live with Hobbs , more so than the other one! But in that scenario I should tip the winner and that one.
      Special Prep is just the sort of profile I should be wading into at those odds, 8s+, plenty 10s around in morning and that was his SP. holes in all the shorties etc, and excuses for recent runs/reasons to believe he’d take a big step forward today.
      It’s trying to simplify to a degree. I’ll get there, one day, but i’ve been saying that for a bloody long time also, and I’m always juggling a few balls.

  13. I am a part time farmer.My Philosophy is to do the simple things well,keep the cattle fed watered and content,the medicine cabinet is full of air,don’t use pills or magic potions.Don’t worry about a few lice,they have to live too.The vet only visits once a year.
    Sometimes its best just to leave well enough alone.Same with racing,there are days when something just jumps off the page and other days your forcing it,and that’s when it usually ends badly

  14. Who was it that used to say ‘Funny old game isn’t it’ ? Probably related to to football actually – maybe ‘Greavsie’ ?

    As a newbie to this Site, well just over a month now, i have totted up where i am since keeping serious records since 31 st December. Yes – i have followed 9 strategies, which of course i now realise has been to many, and against Josh’s suggestion of maybe 4 or 5 max. W 7, Lost 99 – with 1 still to go this evening! Not counted the Placers to be honest, but there s been a few. So 10 days – (the last 6 of which including todays were net Loss making) average Selections 10.6 – yes i know too many with the beauty of hindsight. Luckily (well actually very sensibly! ) i have a bank for each strategy and have been staking small. Am i worried – NO! Clearly a bit of a ‘Kid in a sweet shop syndrome’. I could virtually guarantee that if i stopped backing all of them from tomorrow morning then it would be a net winning day tomorrow. things being what they are i know which ones i would likely drop and why – and 5 or 6 is i guess more sensible. As Josh has said to me in an email exchange we all have to get used to ‘missing some Winners’ ! In the big scheme of things 10 days and 6 losing ones is a ‘drop in the ocean’.
    SO – never having joined anything so different and unique as this Site i really am ok with it. In the past i would probably have been with some cold and clinical ‘service’ with daily ‘selections’ and been a bit unnerved by such a start. NOW, i can already see this is just part of the big picture and the potential for many hundreds of points profits are still there over the course of a full year 🙂
    What i would say is if anyone totally new to betting, probably joining in the same ‘recruitment’ batch as me, and is head scratching, wondering what is going on’, just remain patient. There are hundreds of other ‘shiny objects’ out there and 99 % of them are complete Crap. This is just one of those inevitably dips! All the best everyone, onwards, and UPWARDS!

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