Members Daily Post: 08/01/19 (complete)

Tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Ayr

12.55 –

Karamoko   (micro runs) 14,30  H1 7/2 3rd 

Blaydon   (m TJC) 14 8/1 UP

Cyprus Avenue   (m age) 66/1 UP

Solway Lark   (all Hc’s) 33/1 UP

2.00 – Instingtive   (all Hc’s) H1 I1  9/2 UP

2.35 – Imada   (nov HcCh) 14,30  H3 I1 2/1 2nd 

 

Bangor

1.40 – Voie Dans Voie   (m TJC) G3 9/2 UP 3/1 

2.50 –

Viserion   (HcH, m’s dist and runs)  14/1 S2 UP

Transpennine Star   (m’s class and runs) H3 I3 9/4 UP

Treasure Dillon   (m age) 15/2 2nd 11/1 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143)  

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/130,61p, +25.8, 1 point win)

1.40 Bang – Voie Dans Voie – 6/1 (betfS/BV/PP/Coral) 11/2 (others) UP 3/1 . Damn, he never looked happy on whatever ground that was, certainly in latter stages, you either handle ‘tacky/dead’ or you don’t, which is what it appears to be – albeit I could be making excuses for one who clearly wears a visor for a reason. Poor. I think there’s an ok chaser in there somewhere but you couldn’t have much confidence in that plodding on effort. 

that’s all for today, 09.32…

I thought he was the most interesting horse in this race by some way as, based on that run at Exeter, he looks like the one in here that has the most potential from this mark – i’m sure he’s very well handicapped over fences it’s just a case of when he will demonstrate it. I think a repeat of that Exeter run, on his first start of the season, would be good enough to take this, let alone any improvement. That’s turning out to be a decent race and he jumped/travelled well that day. He’s been a bit unlucky since- well at Haydock he was travelling into it down the back when he tried to take a fence home with him – in that ground he was then drained of energy and maybe confidence, but came home in his own time and popped those up the home straight. He was certainly unfortunate at Warwick, 7 fences in, either clipping heels or stumbling on landing, as he had jumped well up to that point and jumped that fence well enough. Now he gets another go in a smaller field, and I think over the easiest chase fences he’ll have run over to date. He’s got no excuses today provided his head is still in a good place. I wouldn’t mind WH changing it up a bit and getting him more prominent, or keeping him wide so he can see his fences. I think with a clear round he wins this, and 6s , in the context of this race, was big enough for me to take a chance. I think he could have the most in hand and that Exeter form is actually the best chase form on offer. This is about whether he runs his race I think, on my reading of it. 

That’s all for today. 

Silk or Scarlet – I won’t curse this one given how fancied he is but both Nick and I tipped him when he was meant to run at Newcastle a few days back, pulled on account of the ground. He was worth a go at 6s+, but i’ve missed that price for any ‘daily tipping’ purposes – it’s an awful race and does look to be between the top 3 in the market, and I suspect the Richards horse won’t be far away either. 

I looked at the 2.50, given 3 quals in it. Jonjo’s would have a great chance if repeating that last run and the CP may help, but he isn’t a value price for me. I deliberated Treasure Dillon for a time at 15/2 – he’s in the could be anything category – but i don’t have anything to go on to know whether he’s well handicapped or not from this mark, just a bit too much guesswork- he did win his only Point to Point, and I suspect this step up in trip, going LH and this easier ground may all help – he also had 3 quick runs in the space of 25 days, to get a mark, and now arrives after 33 days off – he may well have been running him into fitness and has stepped up his work since his last run. I may have change on just in case, but I decided I wanted to see a bit more before backing him, i’m not sure he’s overpriced and i’m just guessing too much. Given my recent struggles he’ll probably bolt up now!

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

2.50 B – Viserion 12/1 UP

R Hobson (33/1< guide) 

2.15 B – Extra Bald 16/1 UP

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow 

12.55 A – Valkenburg (11/1< guide) 15/2 UP

Jockeys/Chasers

1.40 B – Irish Octave (25/1<)  13/2 UP

LTO Winning Hurdlers

2.50 B – Gardiners Hill 11/4 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

30 Responses

  1. Latest Staff Crisis
    Excellent article on the Racing Post website by Trainer James Evans,highlights Prize Money as major issue for staffing problems well worth a read.
    Sadly this as been my view for many years and the BHA have done nothing to charge the accountants/bookmakers a proper fee to have access to racing,so wrong when 365 CEO can pay herself £269 million in one year and the racing industry struggle to pay a decent wage to their staff this is nothing new been going on for years.
    Colin

    1. Totally agree with this, I know it`s political, but, what can we do?
      It`s the same in all sports really, those at the top are paid well and the average Joe who mucks out three horses for peanuts get`s no recognition, apart from when one of the “Unfancied” (Oldham Athletic in football terms) does over one of the big boys, then there is a 1 minute in the limelight and everyone has forgotten them within two weeks.

      1. Absolutely agree with you guys about these aspects of Racing, and the comparison with Footie, especially as a life long supporter of a club all but ruined by vile Hedge fund Company who don’t give a **** about supporters let alone a local community of over 300,000 people!

        1. I don’t think it’s a pay issue as such but a much wider/deeper problem. Staff are paid the living wage etc, it’s not like they’re being paid a pittance- clearly there are some issues there but work/life balance/the hours and career progression (or lack of) seems to be the real problems. If you’re a member of stable staff it doesn’t seem like there’s anywhere to progress, esp of course if you don’t have professional jockey ambitions one day. I’ve no idea if the BHA have courses for staff, or a way where you can progress your skills and move up the ranks if you wish- even a structure within a yard – but there will always be ceilings when staff stay put- the key could be to formally instil transferable skills that can give these 16-21 year olds say, a springboard into other careers, more generally or still in racing. It can’t be seen as a career or a stepping stone to one yet, and as such you may always have a recruitment problem, regardless of wages.
          There was an increase in staff recruitment % in 2018 to previous years I think, (not taking account of those who left etc) and there could just be a wider problem in the countryside full stop. Clearly there are major issues to tackle.

          And some of that/a lot, does still come down to prize money – bookmakers don’t have to bet on horse racing, they could just stick their fingers up to it, if the sport comes wading in wanting to take more through the levy that they deem unfair – the new levy arrangement does pump more into the sport, but then sponsorship etc is hit. A better Tote operation may be the answer and a betting cultural shift on that front.

          It does seem that the sport has a lot of major problems at the moment! Some leadership required/innovation/new ideas and action across the sport. I’m sure the sport will still be here in 15+ years time but who knows what it will look like.

          Josh

          1. I think that there is a bigger problem still facing all of Western society of which this is reflective. It is the received wisdom that ‘economic growth’ at a certain percentage is essential. The spill over to this that career growth is also seen as essential and that if you stay in one job a long time you are perceived as a failure, both economic and financial.
            If an individual has the talent and ambition to ‘progress’ he or she will. If not then there is no shame in staying put and doing a good job of which you are proud.
            Modern society does not recognise this, instead coining denigratory phrases like McJob. I’d better stop here, not about horses and I can feel my BP shooting up!
            Hugh

          2. Josh
            “Bookmakers don’t have to bet on horse racing,they could stick their fingers up to it”
            Horse racing was around a long time before bookmakers were legalized and they have been allowed to under fund the sport over the years,they have bought up all the competition ie independent bookmakers so they can manipulate prices many independent bookies did not wish to sell but had no choice when said this before Ladbrokes came to my mate Adrian who had two shops in Nottingham and one in Derby and said that if he did not sell they would open up as close to his shops and force him to close down with silly offers.Adrian chose to sell and he now has 30 pitches on different courses.
            They have bought exchanges certainly not in the interest of racing or the punter why they are put on high pedestals god knows.

            When bookmakers were legalized the race courses continued charging them a pittance to operate,guess no one could see the growth of the bookmaking industry at the start,but 40 to 50 years ago BHA should have been asking questions of why they have undervalued their product, over all these years.

            Fantasy World get rid of all the big bookmakers off the courses and only allow independents on and then renegotiate with the big boys what racing is worth to them,and maybe without them new investment may come into horse racing and make the sport what it should be.
            Cheers
            Colin

          3. I remember reading some where that on day’s with no racing, turnover on the FOBT’s (or whatever they call them), drops substantially. Which is why they pay the AW tracks to put on twilight and evening meetings in the middle of winter to stage ‘ghost’ meetings so as to keep the mugs coming through the doors.

  2. today’s selections.
    Ayr 12-55. Silk or Scarlet 6-1 sky 4 places 1pt ew
    Bangor 1-10.Againn Dul Aghaidh 28-1 b365 4 places 1/2 pt ew
    Bangor 2-50. Moss On The Mill 14-1 1/2 pt ew

    1. just a quick reminder that all returns are from my actual bets and i do still get BOG on b365 so if Bangor 1-10.Againn Dul Aghaidh now 40-1+ does do anything returns will be at the bigger price.
      full result update later today.

  3. Will record to 1pt win at BOG (bet365 odds taken) and SP after day 1 RT +5.5 SP +3.5
    12:55 Ayr Silk or Scarlet 13/2
    12:55 Ayr Magic of Milan 3/1
    3:10 Ayr Spirit of Kayf 6/1
    1:10 Ban Mountain Chimes 10/1
    1:40 Ban Steps & Stairs 3/1

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    B 1.10 – Hands of Stone on 8th run @ 11

    AW-Daily
    N 5.15 – Primos Comet on 3rd run @ 13/2
    GL

  5. 1.00 for part 1 and 4.00 for the update. Is a little better than yesterday for jumps, but Newcastle AW throws up very little from past record. Back later.

    1. Bang’ 2.15 Just Rocky ………. 9.0
      Bang’ 3.25 Trio For Rio …….. 6.0
      I’m expecting both these to be borderline but I’m gonna stay with the price. Back later with the update.

      1. Just the one for Newcastle tonight….

        5.45 Will Of Iron…….. 8.0

        Is likely to be borderline again but I’m not going to drop it just to make sure we’re on.

  6. COLINS BETS
    Newcastle
    4.10 Paparazzi BOG 6/4
    6.15 Poppy In The Wind BOG 6/1
    6.15 Novabridge BOG 11/2

    ELITE BETS
    1.10 Bangor Urbanist BOG 5/2

      1. Thanks Ken would have been good if started putting Elite up in October however confident it will show a good profit over 12 months.
        Cheers
        Colin

  7. Callum Rodriguez has 4 rides today at Newcastle.

    4.10 Servo 20/1 ep currently 11/1
    4.45 Woodside Wonder 5/1 ep currently 4/1
    5.15 El Hombre 11/2 ep currently 10/3
    7.15 Pea Shooter 12/1 unchanged

    Have had small interest stakes on a rider i will be tracking through to end of all weather.The Dalgleish have chances on form but it is the longer ones that may pay to follow.The idea will be to see if any of his rides have something to recommend.

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