Members Daily Post: 07/01/18 (complete)

‘best of stats’ tips x3, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Chepstow

1.05 –

Queens Magic   (all Hc’s,HcH) H3 I3 10/3  UP

Kestrel Valley   (micro TJC) 10/1 S2 UP

Annie Bonny   (HcH) 16/1 S2A UP

2.10 – Top And Drop   (nov HcCh) 14,30 7/2 WON 7/2>4/1 

3.15 –

Rainy Day Dylan   (all Hc’s) H3 18/1 S2A UP

Air de Rock   (HcCh)14,30 G3 6/4 2nd

3.50 –

Carrigmoorna Matt   (all Hc’s,HcH) 8/1 3rd 

Cloudy Glen   (m dist) 14,30   w1 H1 I1 G1 4/5 S4 WON 4/5>10/11 

Landofsmiles   (all Hc’s) (added info: hncp debut) ES+ 16/1 S3A S2A UP

Caswell Bay   (HcH) (added info: hncp debut) H3 G3   9/2 UP

 

Musselburgh

2.25 – Urban Kode   (HcH, m class)  14 ES+ H3 I3 4/1 S3A# UP

3.00 –

Max Leibermann   (HcH, m class) 14 ES+ I3 8/1 S3A S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)  UP

Rainy City   (m age) H1 I3 G3 7/2 S4 2nd

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.  w2– won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143)  

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/129,61p, +26.8, 1 point win)

1.05 Chep – Queens Magic – 10/3 (gen) UP

2.25 Muss – Urban Kode – 15/2 (BV/Coral/Boyle) 7/1 (gen) UP

3.50 Chep – Caswell Bay – 4/1 (gen) UP/PU 

 

that’s all, 09.32, write ups …

Queens Magic – this is one of those where you can agonise over whether this price is value or not but in the end i’ve gone with her as she’s much the best in here on what they’ve done to date, and on the evidence of her run LTO in a C2 at jumps HQ, she’s potentially a mid to high 120s animal, when they find the key. She had no room up the rail at a crucial stage there and wasn’t knocked about after. While she wouldn’t have won, she’d have been even closer than she was. In the races before that she’s been beaten by horses that suggest she should show herself to be well handicapped at some point. I think this trip around here should be fine, and it’s not impossible that Tom Scu’s feedback influenced her entry here, having ridden her LTO. The niggle is the actual weight of 11-12 as i’m guessing a bit as to whether she can carry it. If she runs to her ability, I think the rest in here could have to find 10lb+ from somewhere, and while there are a few other unexposed ones from decent yards, I don’t think their form amounts to much as yet. Maybe one of them takes it but the Tizzard and Bailey horses didn’t seem overpriced and they have a few questions. Love Lane needs to step up again having won a race that fell apart LTO with a pace collapse, but she is a LTO winner and that could count for plenty. The selection is down 2 classes here on her second start in a handicap, having outrun her 20/1 odds LTO. This is her 3rd run after a 4 month break or so and there are signs that the yard is coming back into form, having been very quiet for a while. On the evidence of that last run, I thought she could be a point shorter here. We shall see if i’ve judged that right, and indeed the uncompetitive nature of this race, in context of her mark/her recent form etc. 

Urban Kode – the drift from his price at 8am lured me in here, as I thought 4s was fair, but not overpriced. 7s / 152, does look a few points too big to me. Yes he’s 11 and he doesn’t win very often, so I may have lost my marbles, but this pick is inspired by a) the form of the yard b) the consistent form of the horse c) the truly dire nature of the opposition, on paper at least. This looks like one of the weaker races he’s been running in and actually a mere repeat of recent runs would put him close to the winning line ahead of the rest. The handicapper is relenting and he does just gallop/respond for pressure. Clearly some younger legs may have him, but  I just can’t touch them on what they’ve done on the track to date. It could actually be the battle of the old guard with Wot A Shot being backed for Richards- I can see why, back on better ground, and he won well here over CD in Dec 17. I’ve a niggle that he may have actually just regressed over the summer into the autumn, but he could still have enough ability for this. He is 4s now which may not be generous enough, especially given his hold up style but he may not be far away. Another positive for Urban Kode is his prominent style- it’s not impossible that against this opposition he actually has the pace to lead. If he can steal a few lengths turning for home, he should keep galloping at the one pace, and that may be enough. Time will tell but he did tick plenty of boxes and again i’m relying on my assessment of the opposition as much as anything. This is his ideal rest pattern and with any luck he will run his race. 

Caswell Bay – if he stands up i’d be surprised were he not to place here. Recommending when to go EW isn’t something i’m very good at but for those of you who are more intimidated by the fav than I, it’s an option. I may be made to look foolish taking on this fav who bolted up LTO and escapes a penalty given the race type- however Venetia’s can sometimes flatter on their second run after a break,- albeit she ‘could win with the stable cat’ at the moment it seems. Were this very soft ground, then I may have left it, but he has that question to answer here on much livelier ground and I never like being scared of one horse. I don’t think his last win was a strong race on reflection and certainly no others appeared to run their race in the ground, with nothing getting in it from behind. Clearly he is well handicapped, but I thought the Williams horse could be classier, and potentially have more in hand. He’s closely related to Clyne and looks like he could end up, in time, to be the best hurdler in this race today. His two runs so far have been very interesting and he’s run/been ridden in a way that suggests there could be loads more to come very soon. He runs as if he will relish this step up in trip and he did look like he got stuck in the mud LTO, but he plugged on and all of those in behind the winner that day are probably glad they didn’t get closer, given he’s now prominent/fav in the Triumph market having bolted up again over the weekend. Williams is in form, and i’ve no doubt this one will prove himself to be very very well handicapped at some point. Whether that’s today we shall see but I thought 4s may be a shade over priced. As a 4 year old he also gets a 13lb pound weight for age allowance and has nothing on his back. If the fav runs his race I could be in trouble but if mine does too, he could just be better than him. If he doesn’t run his race, then mine should be picking up the pieces on my reading of it, especially now Nick’s is a non-runner. We did muse as to whether the Pipes didn’t get the price/enough money on, and have pulled him! They may have deemed the ground lively enough also. 

Best of luck. I could do with not picking so many placed horses really, but hopefully it’s a positive sign rather than a negative! I’m either not reading a race very well at all, or i’m picking a decent priced 2nd who’s bumped into one/gone close enough. Frustrating, but it will turn. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey 

1.40 Chep – Fair Kate 25/1 3rd / Soraya 25/1 UP

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow

1.40 Chep – Fair Kate 25/1 3rd / Soraya 25/1 UP

3.35 Muss – Alright Sunshine 4/6 

Jockeys/Chasers 

12.50 Muss – Ontopoftheworld  4/11 WON 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

In case you missed this most exciting of reads… Results Review Post for 2018:HERE>>> *

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

29 Responses

  1. Gonna chance The Boom Is Back 2.10 Chepstow. 12/1 B365
    Christan Williams’ stable is currently flying.
    This horse has been rushed through his hurdlers career and only had 3 hurdle runs and then pitched straight into hcp chases.
    Either they think it’s a good’un or it was bad placing in its first two runs over fences because it was out of the handicap on both runs but now it’s pitched into a more suitable level.
    Tom O’Brien rides Chepstow well which adds to the selection.

  2. no selections today.
    a couple i’ll be watching and maybe have a tiny ew for interest.
    C1-05 Little Folke 18-1/ She’s Gina 16-1
    C3-50 Mead Vale 12-1
    M2-25 Captain Brown 12-1

  3. Trying something new, horses returning to the conditions of their better performances.
    Will record the B365 prices I take
    225 Muss Wot a shot 1 e/w 11/2

  4. On the road early today so going to have to post system bet early. I doubt there will be a rush to get on the way it’s gone so far!

    RT-7

    3.35 Muss – Alright Sunshine 2pt win @ 4/6 (4/5 willhill available)

    1. I wasn’t sure whether Martin’s mention of Schauffele was an “official tip” or not given his comments about early season but as Gary Priestley had also put him up, I decided to have a go.

      Thanks Martin!

        1. It was a tip but lower stakes than normal, £25 each way as opposed to the normal £50 each way.

  5. 13.55 Musselburgh – Henry’s Joy – 1p @ 3.00
    18.15 Wolverhampton – False ID – 1p @ 5.50
    (Jan BOG-5.6p /BSP -5.3p)

    Mike

  6. As usual I’ll post in two parts with the afternoon races here at 1.00 and the twilight meet at 3.45. Not expecting much from the jumps today but Wolves has possibilities.

      1. Was right not to get involved with the jumps today with every race so far won by either 1st or 2nd Fav’s. Wolverhampton just ain’t floating my boat either so I’m done for today. Tomorrow’s not exactly looking fantastic either. Is always a slump in competitive races after new year is over and it looks as though it’s upon us.

  7. COLINS BETS

    No Bet

    ELITE BETS
    Chepstow
    1.05 Sea Story BOG 5/1
    Wolverhampton
    5.45 Tidal Watch BOG 9/2
    6.15 Bollihope BOG 15/2

    1. w/e 6/1 figs

      Daily runners = 8
      Winners = @ bog @ sp
      p/l @ bog – 8
      p/l @ sp – 8
      There were / plcs @ bog , @ sp

      Festival runners = 7
      Winners = 2 @ bog 20, 4, @ sp 7, 5/2
      p/l @ bog + 19
      p/l @ sp + 4.5
      There were / plcs @ bog @ sp

      3m+ runners = 9
      Winners = 3 @ bog 11, 11/2, 20 @ sp 13/2, 7/2, 7
      p/l @ bog + 30.5
      p/l @ sp + 11
      there were 1 / 1 plcs @ bog 14 , @ sp 14

      AW
      Daily runners = 3
      winners = @ bog @ sp
      p/l @ bog – 3
      p/l @ sp – 3
      there were / places @ bog @ sp

      Festival runners = 2
      winners =
      p/l @ bog – 2
      p/l @ sp – 2
      there were / places @ bog @ sp

      PLACES @ 10’s+ DO NOT INCLUDE WINS
      Mike

  8. Hi Josh, Do you or any members have experience of using Inform Racing’s In-Running site? Any help would be appreciated.

    1. Hi Chris, nope I don’t personally, I only use the speed ratings as above, and the ‘cards’ to some extent. Maybe someone on here uses the in-running element, no idea! I’m sure they’ll shout if so.
      Josh

      1. Hi Chris, I had the in running trading tool last year, it’s a good bit of kit if that’s you thing, it highlights all runners that have halved in price in running to a percentage of there runs, you can adjust the settings to suit yourself. I work full time so of limited benefit to me but if you have the ability to trade in the afternoons it’s worth a go.
        Ask Ian at Inform if he will allow you a trial, not sure if he doe’s that with this software, but you don’t ask you don’t get.

  9. Can anyone help?Am I missing something but can someone tell me where Martin Colwell mentioned ” Schauffele ” a winner at 25/1 according to JohnnyB

    1. On the free posts… members restricted to just horses mainly! Colin and Martin have been posting their Golf thoughts in comments on free posts for most of 2018, usually on a Tuesday or Wednesday.
      His chat on that winner was 3rd comment down on 2nd Jan’s post. I think as the season gets going he’s more deliberate with his staking etc, Colin + Martin’s golf tips did well combined in 2018, I forget the profit figure but it was decent. I should probably start backing them! 🙂
      http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2019/01/02/free-daily-post-02-01-18-complete-2/

      1. Have you been on the wine again Josh for
        gulf thoughts and
        gold tips
        The word is Golf anyway will have a glass of what you are on, Ha Ha
        CHEERS
        Colin

        1. Haha. The predictive text when I try on my phone seems to have a mind of its own, as well as my fat thumbs!

  10. If i ever needed to have a ‘reminder’ that it is very important to keep separate Banks and stakes low it has been this last few days. Having kept proper records for about 10 days prior i was holding my own in profits. Sat/Sun/Mon 1 W (evens) and 30 losers. No complaints whatsoever but for us new (to the Site) people it underlines the importance of large enough point sized and separate Banks, and keeping a sense of perspective when the inevitable clump of Losers come as they obviously will at several times in a year! 🙂

    1. Good to hear John a gold star for you for you are listening thats why always been open on Colins Bets will be long losing runs and an 100 point bank gives a form of security,and lets be honest if you lose a bank of 100 its time to pack up and same applies to Elite Bets have every confidence that over 12 months will show a good profit,today 3 bets one won SP 5/1 BOG 15/2 and it had not run for 304 days and won by 5 lengths at Wolverhampton.
      John dont overstretch yourself has you say start small, and let the bank increase over a period of time for you are then only risking the original stake and it is lovely when you start to increase your stake and not risking anymore money.
      Cheers
      Colin

      1. Thanks Colin, very encouraging. Pleased for you re. the Wolverhampton one. Unfortunately didn’t get that one as I decided for now just follow your Colin’s ones and i know no- one can back ‘everything’. I know Josh’s concerned that i maybe following a few too many different approaches but i have got a Bank for each, and of course can change my approach a few months down the line if necessary. All the best John

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