Members Daily Post: 06/01/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Plumpton

2.10 –

Zante   (HcH) 14 14/1 S2 2nd 10/1

Generous Helpings   (HcH) 14 16/1 S2A UP

Windy Bottom   (all Hc’s) 33/1 UP

Shimba Hills   (all Hc’s) 12/1 S2 UP

3.10 –

Turban   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 13/2 S3A UP

Finnegans Garden   (all Hc’s) H3 I3 G3 5/1 S4 3rd 

3.40 –

Argyle   (HcH) 14 H3 4/1 UP

Telegraph Place   (HcH, micro’s dist,age,runs, TJC)  ES+ 16/1 S2A S3A UP

GoldSlinger   (HcH) 14  w2 H3 G3 6/1 UP

Maisy Belle   (all Hc’s) 25/1 S2A UP 66/1 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.  w2won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/126,61p, +29.8, 1 point win)

 

2.10 P – Zante  – 14/1 (betfS/PP) 12/1 (gen) 2nd 10/1 

3.40 P – Goldslinger – 6/1 (gen)  UP, a strange run/ride/performance. A no show. 

that’s all for ‘best of’ tips, 09.11, write ups to follow…

Zante- with any luck one of these two can go in for the in-form ‘team Moore’. This one is unexposed enough in handicap hurdles, has a course win to his name in a maiden hurdle,and arrives here on his third start after a long lay off. They also step him up in trip and before his time off he was running as if worth  a go over 2of+. He was outpaced LTO also, as well as not handling soft ground, but he was ridden to finish and I expect a better performance back on this ground. He has some ok form to his name in 2017 and that Huntingdon 2nd by a nose (off equiv 97, now 92) is good enough form to go close here, as is his 4th at Kempton in a C4. I’d like to think this may have been a plan of sorts and they will be pleased the rain has stayed away. He does have to prove he stays of course but the thinking is that he may have strengthened over time, and will improve for it. In this situation I want a decent price, and 12s looked good enough to me to roll the dice. I also didn’t think it was the strongest of races- or in any case looked open enough. Those above him in the market have plenty to prove at their odds, but most are equally as unexposed in handicap hurdles. If the Gifford horse could translate his flat mark to hurdles, then he would be well handicapped, but that’s a question given his form in this sphere when last seen over jumps, and i think he looks short enough. We shall see. 

Goldslinger – another from team Moore here and he’s even more unexposed. This looks like a plan of sorts to me, having had a spin on the AW 3 days ago in a 1st time TT, which stays on here. I don’t think he had an overly hard race there and he ran well, probably his best run on the AW to date. He hacked up at Newton Abbot in April in a C5, and then ran well at Kempton in a C4, beaten by a subsequent winner with the rest well stuffed. What convinced me, as well as the yard form, was the lack of pace in this, and with Darebin in my mind from yesterday – Gary Moore is a very good reader of a race, and had noted no pace in that Sandown chase, so ordered Jamie to be aggressive from the front which isn’t something they’ve ever really done with him. Given this horse stays further (and may want further) and Jamie is on, (he’s probably more aggressive than Josh, and is probably better on the front end) I do wonder if they may try and play catch me if you can. I thought some of these may want it softer, including their other runner Argyle. Oden I can leave at the price.

The main danger could be First Quest, and I wouldn’t put anyone off a saver on him. That Uttoxeter form reads very well, given the horse he beat there in second and what he’s done since. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (28/1< guide)

3.10 P – Diligent 12/1 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Jockeys/chasers

2.40 P – Pearl Swan 7/1 

3.10 P – Alf N Dor 11/1 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

2.40 P – I See You Well 4/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

37 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Normally I would hibernate on any given Sunday, but, this race has intrigued me…
    14:40 PLUMPTON
    THE TIN MINER 15/2 gen 1pt win
    This fella has an unusual running style that i believe is suited to Plumpton, it may look unorthodox, but, when he gets in a rythmn he goes really well here and I believe Mr Bridgewater has got the best out of him, he can hopefully reverse the form with my other selection, he does clout the odd fence and he may not be on a going day, but, 15/2 looks way too big, especially with Tom Scudamore on board, who knows how to sit patient…
    I SEE YOU WELL 5/1 365 1 pt win
    The saver goes on his conquerer, this fella, if the Tin Miner fails then this guy will pick up the pieces, another who`s running style is really weird and he also clouts the odd fence, but, overall a good sort and has found form going longer over these marathon trips.
    I believe the course form is the key here and the favourite has yet to go round a course like Plumpton, it`s hard enough for the jockeys to get used to it….
    As always good luck with whatever you back and hope all horses come back safe and sound.

    Stewart 05/01/19 7:21 PM Reply


    • Well, back to the drawing board, both of those did as i said, clouted the odd fence that put paid to any chance they had! Which was exactly what i didn`t want them to do… Ah well, you live and learn and caps off to The Two Amigos, jumping is the name of the game and he did it well!!

      Stewart 06/01/19 3:16 PM Reply


  • Chris Seneglow
    In answer to your question put it on yesterdays board so if you have not seen it,it is on there.
    Colin

    cleafe 05/01/19 8:07 PM Reply


  • Apologies to all for screwing up the race time for Margies Choice, if you missed out you got lucky cos the correctly timed Xtara was the winner on the day. Must try to pay more attention to the detail in future. Was hoping for a losing day today cos it’s starting to look silly when you look at the results. 5W 5L +47.0 to BFSP.

    One thing you can be sure of is the long term strike rate ain’t 50.0%

    Tim 05/01/19 8:13 PM Reply


    • Tim, come on now, nobody hopes for a losing day. You’re doing well, quit the false modesty. Good luck.

      Mark Curtis 05/01/19 8:36 PM Reply


      • Probably a poor choice of words on my part Mark, but the last thing I want is a burn out. A falsely high strike rate just raises everyone’s expectations cos as the old cliche goes….. you’re only as good as your last winner.

        Tim 05/01/19 8:51 PM Reply


        • I get you Tim, keep on keeping on to quote First Aid Kit ( that will flush out the demographic)! Loving your work.

          Mark Curtis 05/01/19 8:54 PM Reply


          • Great band haha. Well, a very good one if that’s your thing!

            Josh 05/01/19 8:56 PM Reply


            • Well we’re all looking for that Silver Lining Josh…I’ll get my coat…taxi for Curtis

              Mark Curtis 05/01/19 9:00 PM Reply


  • 3 selections for tomorrow all at Plumpton.
    2-10. Shimba Hills 11-1 b365 4 places 1/2 pt ew
    2-40 Big Meadow 7-1 1/2 pt ew
    3-10. Maguires Glen 8-1 1pt ew

    martin whittle 05/01/19 8:46 PM Reply


  • Live from Gatwick Airport:

    The Gary and Jamie Moore team seem to be in good nick at present.

    In the 12.30 at Plumpton they have two runners but Jamie rides Chain Smoker at 33/1. It odes not seem the greatest race and so 1/2 point each way is worth a stab at the price.
    In the 3.40 at Plumpton the stable has Goldslinger, fresh from the all weather. He has form at this class and the 6/1 looks solid enough. 1 point each way.

    In the Sussex National at 2.40 I like Calin Du Brizais. He has the form to stay this marathon distance in the ground. Tom Cannon takes over on board and the 8/1 now seems reasonable.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 05/01/19 9:25 PM Reply


    • Ever committed Martin! Enjoy your holiday.

      Josh 06/01/19 8:14 AM Reply


  • Karl Burke all weather but not Southwell:

    2.30 Newcastle, Mametz Wood, 5/1 now.

    3.30 Newcastle, Made Of Honour, 7/2 now.

    martin colwell 05/01/19 9:32 PM Reply


    • A nice drift to 7/1 re Made Of Honour. Hope someone was on.

      Very warm in Cancun!

      martin colwell 06/01/19 10:39 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    P 2.10 – Give Him Time on 8th run @ 3
    P 3.10 – Le Capricieux on 6th run @ 7/2
    N 2.20 – Presenting Mahler on 6th run @ 14
    Festival
    N 3.20 – Meri Devie on 4th run @ 4
    3m+
    P 2.40 – Big Meadow on 6th run @ 7
    GL

    Titus 06/01/19 7:35 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    No bet today

    ELITE BETS

    1.00 Newcastle Galio’s Spear BOG 3/1
    Colin

    cleafe 06/01/19 9:39 AM Reply


  • RT -5

    2.40 Plumpton – The Tin Miner – 2 points win @ 8/1

    Francis 06/01/19 9:47 AM Reply


  • Only races I’m interested in today are….., P1.10, N1.50, N/c3.00, N3.20 & N3.50. Will post part 1 (first 2 races), at 12.40 and be back here about 2.30 with an update for the last three.

    I know it’s a bit of a pain but I believe the key reason for the improvement we’re seeing over the original version is mostly down to allowing the markets to mature for as long as possible before forcing myself to make the final decision. My price forecasting seems to be benefiting from the late delivery also.

    Tim 06/01/19 9:50 AM Reply


    • Tim good luck to you in the long term for it certainly seems to be working so far,so like yourself on Excanges so good to see someone using a method for use on them,good job i have arrived in the 21st century with my i phone.
      Cheers
      Colin

      cleafe 06/01/19 10:16 AM Reply


    • Tim, you are flying, so whatever you are doing is working sooo well. I’m sure I speak for many of RTP members when I say thankyou for all the effort you put in! Good luck and best wishes, Tom.

      Tom Murgatroyd 06/01/19 10:36 AM Reply


    • Hi Tim,
      Still a ‘newbie’ to Site, but long term Race fan. I have tried to keep up with everything and also read pretty much all the daily posts. Noted your comments earlier re the 50 % win rate and the huge points gained in a few Selections 🙂 I just wondered if you could point me towards a bit more ‘gen’ please, maybe a previous post, or if there is a brief explanation regarding your approach please (or maybe you just post your sels. which is fine) always been a ‘stats’ man and very analytical and a lot of curiosity. Best wishes and lets hope what you are doing continues to be successful and profitable – even if (when) the Win rate drops below 50 %. No wish to take up much of your time and don’t rush to get back – it is Sunday. All the best John

      John Unitt 06/01/19 10:38 AM Reply


      • It started in November John when, after having a really good month(72 points), I decided to have a try at spreading a little of my good fortune on here. Although it has to be said that it was tougher than I thought and I take my hat off to all the posters that profitably put up horses on here the night/morning before the race. Make no mistake tipping horses several hours before the race is extremely tough. I make it happen by waiting for the markets to settle and then deciding whether to strike or not. Trying to emulate Nick and Colin just wasn’t working out for me.

        As far as the picks themselves go I specialise in novice and unexposed horses although I will occasionally throw in an exposed horse if I think the market has overlooked a gem in favour of a hyped up favourite that has yet to prove itself. Anyway… there’s no hard and fast rules, I look at the same things as everyone else (mostly pedigree, trainer, what it’s achieved so far etc etc), and then apply it in the context of the specific race conditions appertaining to today’s particular race. Finally… I allow the odds available the final say as to whether the bet goes down or not.

        Personally I believe it pays to specialise in the long run but others such as Nick for example appears to be able to find ’em in any kind of race. He and others on here (Josh included), get involved in crazy races I wouldn’t even play with their money in and still show a regular profit. I think you have to find the kind of races that work for you at the end of the day and stick to them. Personally I like races that have a higher degree of uncertainty than you get in the kind of races that most all the other posters on here go for but generally speaking I need that high level of uncertainty to underpin the race in order to keep my strike rate at a workable level. If that makes sense?

        Tim 06/01/19 12:15 PM Reply


        • Feast or famine in the first two, so I’m out! Back later with the rest about 2.30.

          Tim 06/01/19 12:46 PM Reply


        • Hi Tim,
          Many thanks for the explanation, much appreciated. Your approach really sounds interesting and logical -and i hope you have every success with it. I will keep an eye on how it is going along with the several others i am doing. I really wish i had found this Site a year or two back but am very grateful that i have found it now, the level of clear expertise all round is excellent and the fact people are prepared to share things so willingly is heartening. Hope i will be able to do the same over a longer period of time. All the best John.

          John Unitt 06/01/19 1:40 PM Reply


          • Can’t get behind any of these at the prices on offer so nothing from me today.

            Tim 06/01/19 2:38 PM Reply


          • My approach is old skool John. It’s the way we all used to play back in the day when there were no earlies or BOG or computers even, to place your bet with. The only thing I miss about ep’s is that you could place your bets then take the rest of the day off.

            The old skool way is more demanding on your time but it does have its up sides.

            Tim 06/01/19 4:24 PM Reply


            • Hi Tim, yes thanks. Interesting stuff, pity about the ep situation. Too many bloody Accountants about these days 🙂

              John Unitt 06/01/19 9:45 PM Reply


  • Sussex National – i’ve had a go at Calin Du Brizais 1 point win , 12s, in the free post.

    Josh 06/01/19 9:54 AM Reply


  • ELITE BETS Results

    After deciding to renew an old method of mine finding a short cut to finding selections via the computer,did back them in October myself with a profit of 21.75 which will NOT be included in the results on here.
    Nov SP – 8.47 BOG -3.92
    Dec SP – 16.5 BOG -14.5
    Total
    SP – 24.97 BOG – 18.42
    For myself happy with the progress for it will always turn up winners between 20/1 and 40/1,which since going live the highest priced winner SP 9/1 BOG 10/1,so are due a couple of big priced ones.

    Again showing the importance of a bank of 100 points at SP you would still have 75 bets to play with and at BOG 82 bets to play with and with the bank that is what you are willing to lose.
    Not crowing but having backed it myself in October my 100 point bank stands at
    SP – 3.22 BOG + 3.33
    If you join and you start on a losing run then it is rubbish for no doubt you do not put aside money for which you are prepared to lose in a Bank.

    Colin

    cleafe 06/01/19 10:09 AM Reply


  • 13.40 Plumpton – Phoenix Way – 1p win @ 2.38
    14.30 Newcastle – Berlusca – 1p win @ 15.0
    (Jan -6pts)

    bottlabroon 06/01/19 10:25 AM Reply


  • Inspireus Plumpton 14:10 1pt e/w 14/1
    The Tin Miner Plumpton 14:40 1pt e/w 8/1

    Nick Mazur 06/01/19 11:31 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I’m glad you mentioned First Quest as the saver in the 1540 as It did just that for me. I guess the saver winning is next best to the main selection winning. Thx for suggesting this. Richard

    Richard 06/01/19 3:57 PM Reply


    • Well it lessened the blow somewhat haha – there is usually method to my madness with those esp when they’re in bold! I’m not sure what mine was playing at in that, such a strange strange run. Pulled like mad, but was still pulling down back when anchored, when race was starting to hot up. A line through that one, still scratching my head but seems flat run may have sparked him up too much sadly. Two 2nds at 14s and 12s a fitting end to a frustrating weekend/few days!

      Josh 06/01/19 4:26 PM Reply


      • Hear Hear Josh, I always save on your advised dangers (except Houblon, sadly…)then I see Chris Cook of the Guardian also tipped it and I didn’t read till 5pm!But thanks for highlighting the danger today.

        Mark Curtis 06/01/19 7:34 PM Reply


  • Well, cant say i can ever recall a Sat/Sun with a combined score of 0/20 (abated by a few Placers -pity about Zante 🙁 ) BUT i think its really important to recognise that despite the successes of people and approaches on here you have to be well armed with sensible Staking and Bank sizes, and a stoic sense of riding out the disappointing days. I worked all that out and have been staking low so far in these first 4 weeks. not yet had a ‘hum – dinger’ of a day but i know its not far away, when several tumblers fall into place on one day! Onwards and upwards!

    John Unitt 06/01/19 9:42 PM Reply


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