RTP 2018 Results Review

Racing To Profit Results Review 2018

What follows is a look back at results for 2018 on this blog, racingtoprofit.co.uk.

I’m going to get in the habit of doing this monthly from now on.

My general approach, especially within the members’ club, is very different to most. I’m a fan of the ‘portfolio’ approach, offering systematic strategies and more conventional ‘tips’. I also encourage a certain amount of free thinking, using any information I find to help readers find their own bets. This includes any stats/trends I’ve used in my big race analysis – some readers put that work to better use than I do! 

Below I touch on the results from my main content, and single out just one of my RTP members who’s a tipping marvel.

In short, 2018 has been a very profitable, year. It’s also been enjoyable. 

 

The headline figure from my content is +427.5 points (to mainly 1 point win bets), broken down as…

  • Free Tips (mainly C2/G3 handicap chases, 3m+) : 9/116,33p, +40 points
  • Members Big Race Tips: +143 points
  • Members advised jumps strategies: 716 bets / 117 wins / 227 wins|places / 16% win SR / +244.5 points / 34% ROI

 

Free Tips

116 bets / 9 wins / 33p / +40 points

In reality it’s only been an ‘ok’ year on the free tipping front, where I generally focus on class 2/Grade 3 handicap chases over 3m or further. I won’t complain at a 34% return on investment and I have tipped less in the free posts, especially Monday-Friday, instead focussing on the ‘big’ chases.  That’s been quite deliberate as I’ve focussed more on my content in the members’ posts and there are only so many hours in the day. But, outside of Festival week, classy UK 3m+ handicap chases will continue to live in the free posts as they’ve always done. 

A couple of weeks ago I took a long hard look at some of my recent tipping efforts, with much to improve on.

You can read that post HERE>>> . It includes an over-the-shoulder video.

Highlights in 2018 included tipping the Irish and Scottish Grand National winners at 33/1 and 40/1. With any luck I can do the same in 2019!

Had a couple more placed horses got their heads in front the points profit would have matched previous years – around the +75 point mark – but that’s how it goes. I back my own tips to £25 per point, and won’t complain at +£1000 profit this year. Every little helps.

 

Members Big Race Tips

158 bets / 16 winners / 10% win SR / 175 point outlay / +143 points profit advised|bog/ +102 BFSP/ 81% ROI

You can find a full spreadsheet of all bets for the year HERE>>>

A decent year on this front. As always I  only care for profit come year end. These tips+ previews mainly focus on big, 16+ runner, class 2/Grade 3 handicaps, with a special focus on the spring jumps festivals, and in particular Cheltenham.

Cheltenham week 2018 pulled in +92 points profit and it was my best ever tipping week with numerous 9/1+ winners, focusing on the toughest races of the week. That would indicate the rest of the year has pulled in ‘only’ +51 points. I seem to always do well in the first 3rd of the year, but then struggle for consistency thereafter.

So, there’s plenty to work on as always, but then again, this sport would be boring if it was easy. You can never rest on your laurels in this game and I’ll try and have a better second half of the year in 2019, as well as trying to repeat the first half of 2018.

2018 was the first year I attacked the Galway Festival and that went well. 4/12,5p, +23 points. Indeed come the end of that week I hit my yearly high of +183 points. Since then I’ve given 40 back, but that’s how it goes given the races I play in. My Flat ‘big’ handicap tipping needs work and most of the losers since then have been on the level. I’m not sure how I’ll attack those this year. I picked out Bacchus at Royal Ascot, winning at 50/1, but he basically paid for all the other losers on the level. Damn. Thankfully it’s all jumps for the foreseeable future and Daklondike brought some welcome big race cheer over the festive period.

I’ll try and better 2018s performance this year. It won’t be for the lack of effort. And there’s no better feeling than getting one of those big races correct. 

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Members’ Advised Jumps Strategies

What follows is a quick look at the four main jumps strategies which derive from the stats qualifiers against my Trainer Track Profiles stats packs.

I won’t bore you with the rules for each strategy and for ease of reference will just call them strategy 1, 2, 3, 4.

 

Strategy (aka S1)

  • Dec 18: 3/28,6p, +15 , +15.47 BFSP 
  • Total 2018: 11/147, 38p, +32, +76.77 BFSP 
  • 7.5% win SR, 26% win|place SR, 21% ROI early/bog, 52% ROI BFSP

  

Strategy 2 (aka S2A)

  • Dec 18:
    • 1 point win: 3/44,12p, +9, -7.54 BFSP
    • 1 point EW: 3/44,12p, +30 
    • 1/2 point EW: 3/44,12p, +15 
  • Total 2018
    • 1 point win: 13/241,53p, +26.6, +58.26 BFSP
    • 1 point EW: 13/241,53p, +100  
    • 1/2 point EW: 13/241,53p, +50 
    • 5.3% win SR, , 22% win|place SR, 24% ROI 1 point win BFSP, 20% ROI for each way. 

 

Strategy 3 (aka S3A#)

  • Dec 18: 4/15,6p, +2.7 
  • Total 2018: 43/137,64p, +75.94
  • 31% win sr / 55%% ROI 

 

Strategy 4 (aka W1)

  • Dec 18: 10/53, 14p, +0.53
  • Total 2018: 50/191, 72p, +33.53
  • 25% win SR, 17.5% ROI 

 

TOTAL, 1 point win, (inc BFSP for S1/S2 as advised)…

  • 716 bets / 117 wins / 227 wins|places / 16% win SR / +244.5 points / 34% ROI 

 

So, with those 4 strategies plus my big race tips/free tips, that’s a +427 point year, 43% ROI, which isn’t too bad. 🙂 (with the usual long losing runs! It’s all about the long term) 

Or +£2,135 to just £5 bets.

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There isn’t too much to say on what has ended up being another decent year. I’ve always aimed to provide a +100 point portfolio from the strategies, and a combination of any of the two above has achieved that goal. 

If backing all 4 to just £5 per point, that’s been a +£1222.5op year, which more than pays for subs! (and leaves plenty left over to treat yourself) 

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The community…

I’m blessed that plenty of my members are superb ‘tipsters’ and that some of them freely post their thoughts on a regular basis, with more joining in with each passing week.

Some of them have made many of us a lot of money and quite frankly could run their own service, so I’m lucky they’re still posting on my blog.

This month I’ll just highlight one of them, with the aim to touch on a few more over time…

Nick (or Member X as I refer to him in my tweets!)

It’s fair to say that having first set foot on this blog in 2015, he’s now somewhat set the tipping bar for us all to aspire to. I’m sure he wasn’t this good when he first arrived on these shores… (maybe he was, but just kept it secret!) But i’d like to think he’s a shining example of what’s possible when you have a relentless drive to improve your own performance and get better at the game. At RTP we all have the chance to do that, if you so wish. Anyway, that’s enough compliments for one day…

2018 results…

633 selections / 193 win or place / 30.5% win|place SR / +532.23 points / 44% ROI (from 1192 point outlay) / (all mainly 1 point EW bets)

or +£5323 to £10 per point

Nick is keeping better records as of 2019, for his own benefit as much as anyone else, including to 1 point win BFSP. 

I only single him out as quite frankly he sets the tipping bar on both points profit and ROI, and is something for us all to aspire to. It’s a quite remarkable effort given he has a ‘day job’ also. Keep up the good work my friend, I could do with you paying for another nice holiday or two of mine! 🙂 

If you’re not following him, you really should be. I doubt many in 2018 could match those figures in the horse racing space, esp ROI. Knowing him he’ll be wanting to better 2018 and it wouldn’t surprise me if he did. No pressure Nick. 

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To finish…

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals

At the start of November 2018 I attempted to ‘up my tipping game’ when it came to my own stats content, and using the qualifiers as ‘starting points’ as a way in for further research. I’d like to add my own daily tipping element which brings in 100+ points a year. It’s also for personal satisfaction as I get a buzz from trying to ‘solve the puzzle’ in this way.

So far it’s ticking along fine…

121 bets / 29 wins / 57 places (inc wins) / +34.8 points (all 1 point win) / 24% win SR / 28% ROI

If I could repeat those stats every 121 bets I’d be happy, but time will tell! I’m keeping more detailed results as of the 1st Jan, including to BFSP. 

With this approach I try and apply many of the ideas I first jotted down in my ‘Magic Formula’ article which you can read HERE>>> 

This discusses an approach to finding bets using a ‘starting point’ and a focus on unexposed horses that that are ‘doing something different’ from recent runs, as a reason for why they may show more today. You may find that an interesting read. 

 

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That’s 2018 done and dusted. You should never look back for too long in this game but there’s always plenty to learn. I’d take a repeat of those 2018 jumps figures for sure, but with any luck I can build on them in 2019. That’s the aim.

Thanks for reading, and as ever if you have any questions, fire away, 

Josh 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

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  • Brilliant work Josh as always so glad that I found your site many thanks

    christopher jones 04/01/19 12:19 PM Reply


    • Thanks Chris, yep can’t complain at that year overall, nor the stars unearthed within the comments! I’d take +427 every year across my content portfolio, but we shall see what 2019 has in store!

      Josh 04/01/19 4:11 PM Reply


  • Thank you Josh, it’s nice to compair with my records.

    I’m just in the middle of finalising my figures for 2018, but it’s safe to say that this site as giving me 50% of my overall profits. Thank you once a again for your work Josh and the other contributors to the site.

    Gavin 04/01/19 2:37 PM Reply


    • No problem Gavin, pleasure of be of service! 🙂

      Josh 04/01/19 4:12 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    That’s a brilliant set of results thank you for all your hard work
    I do the portfolio approach within that I tend to back your big race and free tips each way as I do with Nicks the strategies I do win only unless over 20/1
    Would last years profit on free and big race tips have been worse or better by backing each way do you have any figures for that if not does not matter don’t want to cause you too much work
    Regards

    Peter L

    peter0104 04/01/19 6:32 PM Reply


    • Hi Peter,

      Sadly I haven’t kept those results in 2018, such is my all or nothing, go hard or don’t bother approach haha- I will endeavour to keep better record this year, certainly with the members big race tips. I don’t think EW will put you in a better position – i’d be surprised if they were much much worse, they should still be profitable – and if of course betting EW keeps you in the game longer and backing them, then that’s clearly more profitable than not betting – my approach isn’t of an EW mindset to analysis which I think impacts, as I have plenty unplaced obviously. One way to counteract that is to start very small so the number of losers I put up is irrelevant haha.
      I should be able to have a better answer in a few months with this year’s etc.
      Josh

      Josh 04/01/19 10:44 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh thanks for the reply I know each way is a personal choice and you tend to be win only so for now I will stick with each way as I do with Nicks tips and will monitor it myself for a couple of months and see how it goes enjoy the rest of your wine and let’s hope for a good day tomorrow
        Regards

        Peter L

        peter0104 04/01/19 11:02 PM Reply


  • Thanks Josh for laying these out for us as always.

    westy2 04/01/19 7:22 PM Reply


  • hi Josh, just wanted to say thank you. I m just about a month in now and although not really in profits yet it doesnt bother me a jot, because i just KNOW joining this site will be the best decision i have ever made in terms of Horse Racing!
    Interesting to see the Monthly profile for the Big R Tips, eventually nearly all the winners (and all the monthly profits) in the March to August time. Obviously with less runners outside that time and the ups and downs of W s and L s i guess that is most likely. Just out of interest i wondered if you know if Betting on them E/W would have seen some enhancement in Profits? I would (maybe wrongly) have assumed it would to an extent – just thinking that it would ‘iron out’ the inevitable LLR s with only Winners?
    Enjoying the ‘debate’ ref Betting Banks and maybe will add my own two pennuth at some point. Limited time this morning although i have asked one Q on their – to another member.
    What i will say Josh is that even in the unlikely event of not quite being into profit at the end of the two months there is no way on earth that i wont be carrying on with my Membership. The amount of work / effort you must put in (God knows how many hours you ‘work’ a week) is phenomenal and i really hope that everyone appreciates it.
    Take care, all the best John

    John Unitt 05/01/19 10:31 AM Reply


    • Hi John,
      gad you are enjoying it and with any luck you should be turning a profit soon! As previous discussions i’d be minded to start with a smaller portfolio and build up, rather than diving in with numerous approaches but that’s up to you! I thought Nick was over 50 odd points up since 16th of Dec or so! S1 been doing ok, W1 gave a chunk back in latter half of Dec, anyway. All about the long long term as you know. Jamie’s comment in members post was a good example of ‘the journey’ etc.

      EW- i got back to Peter above who asked a similar question. I havent been keeping the results for EW, but will endeavour to this year. Id be surprised if the results were any better, and would think they would be lower given I pick many many that don’t hit the frame

      March to Aug is because of focus on main jumps festivals really I suppose, inc Galway now. All the main profits were from Chelt/Aint/Punch/Galway. I’m trying to get better outside of those 4, as well as working hard to ensure I do as well at those again this year.

      Oh i’m lucky that I do something I love so rarely feels like proper work, and only ever gets mildly stressful if everything is losing for a prolonged period!

      Josh

      Josh 05/01/19 12:42 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Many thanks – thats great. Yes i will have a re – think about the portfolio. By the way what was Chubnut’s reference to A2D2 tipping service, i know others have asked?

    I can tell you clearly love doing – and long may that continue. Also you are a young guy (well most people are when you are in your 60 s like me 🙂 ) so i reckon you will enjoy continuous improvement which will benefit us all i feel.
    All the best John

    John Unitt 05/01/19 8:10 PM Reply


    • Hi John. I’m happy to discuss ‘A2D2’ over email if you drop me a line.
      I hate being rubbish and being wrong I think that’s my main drive. I hate not solving the puzzle and equally it’s such a high when you’re right. Making the wrong calls on the likes of Houblon drive me and wanting to work my way out of mini big race slump. Still some clouded muddled thinking creeping in. I enjoy wanting to improve but would prefer to have been right a few more times in recent weeks! Some progress today as I was closer to Houblon than I have been to plenty of other big race winners recently. 20s should have been enough to tip me over the edge.

      Josh 05/01/19 8:19 PM Reply


  • Hi

    Before I start let me say I appreciate Josh is a hard working and honest guy and clearly a lot of his members are doing well. But for completeness and transparency of service results I offer my results which are to show a profit in any month.

    I joined in September looking to add to my portfolio of sources and only follow the advised tips, (Free, Big Race, and recently Best of Stats). Now I didn’t start Best of Stats straight away, I think it was about + 8 points before I started and I mainly bet on Betfair but invariably beat or match the odds quoted in the service, but obviously don’t benefit from BOG. I bet to £20 per point and my results are

    September Loss £17 (not full month)
    October Loss £536
    Novemeber Loss £158
    Decemeber Loss £129
    January Loss £200 (to date)

    Adrian Brookes 07/01/19 12:09 PM Reply


    • I knew there was a reason I like to take an annual look Adrian!! 🙂 Gulp.

      Yes it really hasn’t been a great period on the tipping front. I have it at -48.2 points across those three since start of Oct, so concur with those figures…

      Free post: -20.5 points
      Members daily tips/best of… -14.7
      Members Big Race Tips: -13 (were +156 start of Oct, their high was +183 end Galway)

      Separately, I’m not worried yet, as a portfolio then yes, that clearly needs some work. My profit has always comes in spikes, and I can only work hard to hope another is on the way. Two winners will wipe that out 🙂
      Had you started at beginning of 2018, you’d be sat on +187 points and while concerned at this recent run, as am I, it would look a tad better.

      I’d hope you have a 150-200 point bank, and you’re brave for diving in at 20 pp but that’s you call.

      The free/bog race tips have always had a 10% win SR or so, so I will hit hefty losing runs, 66 max every 1000 bets, and having 2x max losing run can be a safe bet, and best of stats around 25% win so far, so again, losing runs of up to 24 or so will happen.

      There is a reason I like the portfolio approach, inc the systems and following odd superb tipster in comments etc, (well, there’s one you could start with as he’s the best of all of us as above) but I won’t be hiding from those abject results.

      With big races when diving into 16+ runner handicaps, C2/G3, losing runs will clearly happen but I haven’t been happy with progress in recent weeks clearly. The good news is that Jan-April has usually been a decent period on the big race front and i’ll work hard to try and get those figures heading back in the right direction. Hopefully you’ll stay around for then but can understand if your patience is being tested.

      I back all my tips to £25 per point, so financially, i’m feeling some pain also but all manageable within my banks etc. I don’t take great joy from such runs as this, and clearly need to be working harder to get us back on track.

      Josh 07/01/19 12:53 PM Reply


      • Josh

        Thanks for the reply and totally respect your views. It says a lot that we can have this sort of discussion. I couldn’t agree more that we need a decent bank and indeed I am well within the bank I have set up and I am expecting the tide to turn that is why I haven’t lost faith. I would also suggest it supports the portfolio approach as I am well within profit over the same time period overall which obviously makes it easier to take a calm longer term view. All the best.

        Adrian Brookes 07/01/19 3:42 PM Reply


  • Hi josh still no joy logging in on members site.

    trevknight 11/08/19 9:11 PM Reply


  • Hi josh still no joy logging in on members site.

    trevknight 15/01/19 10:34 PM Reply


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