Members Daily Post: 05/01/18 (complete)

Tip x3, Section 1 (complete), test zone + sandown through the card

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

 

Newcastle

11.55 – Suggestion   (micro class)  w1 H1 I1 5/2 UP

1.30 –

Monsieur Bagot   (HcCh) 10/1 S2 2nd 11/1 

Titian Boy   (m class) 14 I3 G3 7/2 UP

2.00 –

Silk or Scarlet   (m’s TJC and class) 14 H3 I3 8/1 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Petite Ganache   (all Hc’s) 14,30  H3 2/1 WON 

2.35 – Fly Rory Fly   (m TJC) 14 9/1 

 

Sandown

1.20 –

Western Miller   (HcCh, m runs) 8/1 3rd 

Darius Des Bois   (m age) H1 I3 2/1 2nd (needs 3m) 

3.00 –

Loose Chips   (HcCh, m dist)  w2 H3 I3 14/1 S2 S5

Bishops Road   (m TJC) G1 16/1 S1 S2A 

Pete The Feat   (HcCh, m’s dist and runs) 18/1 S2A 

3.35 – Demopolis   (m class)  w2 7/1 

 

Wincanton

3.15 – Sizing Platinum   (HcCh)  ES+ G3 I3 7/1 S3A#  S1 + S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.  w2won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143)

 

BIG Race Tips

None on Saturday… my only ‘big race’ focus will be the Veterans Chase final from Sandown, and any tips for that will be in the free post. 

I’ve cursed us all with my Sandown picks, but it’s often a positive when a few of us agree.. my 3pm Sandown tips are up on the free post, for ease of reference… Kings Lad (18s/16s) and Henllan Harri (11s, 10s) 1 point win on each. 

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/124,60p, +31.8, 1 point win) 

#1 2.00 Newc – Silk or Scarlet – 7/1 (gen) 

#2 1.20 Sand – Western Miller – 7/1 (Lad/WH/BetfS/PP/Coral) (13/2 others)  3rd 7/1>6/1 

#3 1.30 Newc – Monsieur Bagot – 9/1 (gen) 2nd 10/1 …hmmm, not sure what to make of that, he’s clearly got a bit in hand and is better than that C5 level given how he finished, like a fresh horse, just got going far too late, not sure whether jockey could have got him rolling a lot early but then he’s inexperienced jumper. Or whether he could have races further forward. He’ll be winning a weak race soon, maybe over a bit further. 

 

That’s all for today, 09.22, write ups…

Silk Or Scarlet – well, Nicked tipped it and I just copied him! 🙂 I jest – my main drive in the tipping game is solving the puzzle myself, so if I ever end up agreeing with the other esteemed judges in the comments, it should be seen as a big positive I think, given we’ve come to the same conclusions with our different analytical eyes. This section 1 qualifier is young, unexposed and doing something different – he drops in class here and slightly in trip, and they bring him to one of their target tracks. Alexander is 5/18,7p in C5 handicap hurdles here, 5/8 when Lucy is on, in last 5 years. The yard are in fine form at the moment and I’m going to assume this one needed the run LTO. He travelled well enough to a point before seemingly blowing up – and the Alexander’s never seem to be hard on them once their chance has gone, this one just coasted home in his own time. On his blog Alexander mentions a change in tactics and on reflection I’m not sure what that means in practice, as he led for parts of that race and was right up there. Maybe they will try and be more patient this time. I think he stays well enough and that Perth 2nd in a C4 is one of the better pieces of form in here. On paper it really is a dire race – awful- with many in here having plenty to prove. The Richard’s horse is unexposed also but short enough on what he’s achieved to date, but that’s another yard in red hot form. In any case, 8s was certainly overpriced, as is 7s, and I think 6s may be also. He will prove himself to be well handicapped at some point from this mark and does look a unit of a horse on film. He could win this well. 

Western Miller – I concluded that this has been the plan and that would explain his two recent runs. I could be wide of the mark but this is one of those ‘finals’ which is just the sort of pot you’d target, especially if you have a horse who’s best chase run was arguably over this CD, in a decent enough C3 novice handicap, where he just got collared late on. That thinking, and his prominent racing style, lured me in. He’s up in trip from Taunton in what actually looks a much stronger race than this – plenty of youngsters in front of him, and a few who have won since. He did run there as if he needed the run still, having watched it back, and Longsdon is in better form than when he was last seen. The main man also jumps back on. I thought he may try and get this lot on the stretch and his jumping/rhythm could get plenty of these in trouble. While he’s 8 this is only his 10th chase start. On initial viewing it looks competitive enough but the two youngsters from messrs  Henderson and Moore have questions to answer now, and look short enough. Darius runs as if he’s a stayer and i’m not sure this drop in trip will suit. Sean may be ultra aggressive and if he does have the pace to dominate could be hard to beat as he’s still in the ‘could be anything’ category but on this ground also, it could happen a bit too quick and those railway fences take some jumping for a novice. Moore’s fell LTO when in there pitching and they’ve clearly taken their time with him since. I’d be surprised if Jamie launches him at these fences from the front, given that experience and the horses inexperience but he is a bit mad and maybe that’s what he’ll try. I hope Western may be able to dictate this. Jonjo’s is now 0/9 over fences and I can leave him, he also fell here LTO and now gets a visor, which could work wonders. But he didn’t feel overpriced. I was happy to leave the others. With any luck this has been the plan and Charlie has been building his fitness up to this race, rather than the horse being out of form. That’s possible, but i’ll roll the dice at 7s. 

Monsieur Bagot – 10 minutes after the tapes go up here i’ll probably be rocking in my chair wondering why I loaned back a precious point on this beast but something lured me in – well mainly the trainer’s decent form at he moment and the fact she’s 5/20,9p in handicap chases at the track in recent years. This horse drops in trip and class from his last run, and is in the ‘could be anything’ camp. I’d like to think he’ll show ability at some point. He PU 10 days ago but the fact he returns so quickly suggests there wasn’t much wrong – he did suffer quite bad interference early on and didn’t seem totally happy after that, and his jockey wasn’t hard on him. Whenever they drop in trip like this I do wonder if there may be a change of tactics on it’s way, he he will find himself front rank. The other main reason for having a go here is because I don’t remember ever setting eyes on such an awful handicap chase. I mean it really is dire. Plenty of these have yet to win a race, inc the two at the top of the market, and plenty of the rest just seem out of form. This trip doesn’t look like it will suit some of them either. I really wouldn’t want to be taking <6s on anything in this, not to my eyes anyway. But, something has to win it. The fact Menzies didn’t take long putting this one over fences, having got him from Ireland, suggests he’s more than ready for the jumping game. Clearly he could just be useless and in no form whatsoever, but he could show himself to be well handicapped at some point given his profile. I mean he hasn’t done anything on the track as yet, but I thought 9s in the context of this atrocious race was worth chancing. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (28/1< guide) 

12.30 Winc – Truckers Tangle 9/1 UP

Irish Angles 

12.50 Cork – Duibheach Alainn (16/1< best, 25/1<) 80/1 DNQ

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

2.25 Sand – Mercy Mercy Me 25/1 

3.00 Sand – Theatre Guide 20/1 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

1.20 Sand – Darius Des Bois (9/1< best) 2/1 2nd 

3.00 Sand – Henllan Harri (9/1< best) 10/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Review Post for 2018:HERE>>>

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Sandown ‘through the card’ 

12.15 – Honourable (change or EW, fav does look good, but this one is ‘could be anything’, Moore won with a similar type before)

12.45 – Capeland 

1.20 – Western Miller (section 2 tip) 

1.50 – / (I suppose change on outside just in case the super mare doesn’t some how hack up!) 

2.25 – Rathhill (could do a muggy double with Capeland, both picked with ‘track side winners eyes’ rather than value eyes) 

3.00 – Henllan Harri / Kings Lad / (both free big race tips and Nicks…poor buggers) (HDO at 16s maybe, just in case!) 

3.35 – Demopolis / Monsieur Lecoq 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

47 Responses

  1. Henllan Harri Sandown 15:00 1pt e/w 11/1 5 places
    Kings Lad Sandown 15:00 1pt e/w 16/1 5 places

    Rest to follow later this evening

    1. Excellent analysis for the 3:05 today Nick. Pleased to have taken the reverse forecast to partially make up for being pipped to the line. Cheers, keep up the good work.

  2. Another good day ends but I thought I’d post a note to remind newbies that it won’t be this rewarding all the time and like other regular posters I would advise a minimum bank of at least 50 stakes but 80 would probably be a belt and braces approach. I’ve flagged all the qualifying bets for this version on my database and can confirm the longest losing run over the past 4.5 years was 23. So it’s not infallible although it’s not that bad really when you look at the odds of the winners it throws up.

    Also….. that last race raises another point and that is that it’s not an exact science. BTP was trading around 10.0 two minutes before the off and then got backed in big time such that the SP ended up well below the minimum advised by me. I was already on so I’ve done my money, but it only got beat a nose so I’m happy given that I’d got 11.4 for it. Point I’m making is that it could have gone the other way and I would have benefited from a horse that didn’t go on the record. So as to which way you play is up to you to decide.

    Currently +42.8 pts up on the month and we’ve only had 10 bets so far so expect things to calm down soon and set your stakes accordingly.

  3. Evening,

    Well it`s weekend, it`s cold and we could all do with a winner, will try my best, but, what i would say is I believe Me, Nick and maybe Josh have tipped one so, get on now whilst you can!!?
    15:00 Sandown
    LOOSE CHIPS 12/1 gen 1pt win
    Trainer is an expert in these kind of races and although Pete the Feat will go close I believe this one to be the more favoured of the two. Jockey will take 3lb off and I think will relish going up against the big boys here, he has become a leading claimer and get`s on well with Loose Chips. Being a course winner I believe is always worth an extra length or two here and Loose Chips will relish conditions, ticks all boxes apart from speed, but, with these old timers, which one of them does.. haha
    HENLAN HARRI 11/1 gen 1pt win
    Another who is proficient at the course and will relish the conditions, this will be a fascinating race and if Loose Chips leads I am expecting this old fella to be hot on his heels, it`s the way I see it playing out, others may argue, but, as I always say, these are my picks and the reasoning is there for all to see, value at the moment at 11/1 and I may even go as far as to say reverse forecast these two.

    There we go then, as per usual good luck with whatever you back and hope all horses come back safe and sound.

  4. 3.00 Sandown, I will avoid those tips previously and go with the course specialist Rathlin Rose, with the Pipe Scudamore combination, at 9/1 BOG now. 1 point each way.
    12.30 Wincanton, Midnight Midge, 11/2 now, 1 point each way. Won LTO when back at the minimum distance. A course and distance winner. Trainer form OK.
    2.40 Wincanton, Dark Episode, 7/1, 1 point each way. Had his 3 runs and now in a handicap. Hobbs and Johnson team up.

    Good luck, I am off on Sunday to Cancun for a 10 day break with my wife on Sunday. I will try to keep up to date of what is going on if the internet works there. Keep following Nick and the others. Some of the newer guys seem to be on the ball for winners and so we seem set fair for a good 2019.

  5. Henllan Harri Sandown 15:00 1pt e/w 11/1 5 places and Kings Lad Sandown 15:00 1pt e/w 16/1 5 places-I liked two here. Kings Lad has be in the form of his life this season and brings some really good form here following his Sodexo run where the first 4 were better than anything else here. His Chepstow win has been franked repeatedly and he is only 5lbs higher here. His Badger Ales run came way too soon and he was never put into the race. Cobden is back on board and he is 2/2 on the horse. He has an excellent record going right handed. This is only his 6th run over 3m+ and looks way too big. I also like Henllan Harri who was an excellent 2nd to Virgillo in the Summer Cup. The winner is a 150s horse and was 3rd in the Charlie Hall and the 3rd won a class 2 chase at Cheltenham on his next start. Only 4lbs up for that he still looks on a good mark. He won the 365 Gold Cup here 20 months ago and another who is excellent going right handed. He has a solid record fresh. Both should be near the front and I expect them to both go very close.

    Silk Or Scarlet Newcastle 14:00 1pt e/w 9/1-This looks like a terrible race and this one looked over priced. Was 2nd in April in a class 4 and would have needed it last time. I find it interesting that they come here where the Alexanders are 7/15, 9p +44 in class 5 handicap hurdles. Trainer is in excellent form right now and I expect him to come on for the run.

  6. While sitting here on my 3rd glass of wine I thought I’d post my latest views on our little world of gambling hitting the new year. Firstly I’d like to point at those greenhorns who lambasted me for even questioning the performance of A2D2 or whatever its called tipping service for trying to advise people against it. Life’s not so rosy for those poor souls now. I pointed out the futility of people posting their profit/loss to date by early prices/ BOG given that anyone with a modicum of success or even beating SPs would be banned or at least severely restricted. Add in not reading the post at the right time and it becomes a nonsense. Still more ridicule from the uninformed.

    And so on to my latest told you so that you can rail at. There seems to be a lot of new subscribers lately and by their questions one would deduce they are in need of urgent advice to stop them thinking this game is as easy as logging in every morning. Two issues stand out not only for those new subscribers but other naive readers. The first one is the matter of the so called “portfolio” named by one greenhorn. Its not the first time gambling on horses has been linked to Stock market jargon but the reality it has nothing to do with it outside both are a gamble. Having 10 stocks in a portfolio, rarely does one stock have an affect on another, hence the reasoning. In racing its almost inevitable that various theories/systems will clash giving multiple selections in a race. I’m not going to write a thesis on bookmaking so a quick google of Bookmakers percentage should enlighten even the greenest. Bottom line is the more systems or sources one follows, the more precarious making a profit becomes.

    My second bee in bonnet is this constant posting of the importance of having a bank. In my experience betting with limited funds encourages one thing, chasing. Even Colin the bankman himself must have lost a weeks wages chasing it. There’s a difference between limited funds, bank and ongoing funds. Banks are a myth as it gives the impression of invincibility but rarely does anyone have the stomach to see it to the bitter end. A 100 point bank means nothing to the human brain that signals abandon ship after 8 straight losers. Your 8 straight losers yes but someone else’s?
    The reality is, regardless of well thought out parameters we will adjust accordingly to fit in our hobby/crave, deposit cash and carry on.

    So there you have it. No doubt the naivety will still be met by old customs and adages which if given pause for thought are only theories. The realities of betting are too frightening to discuss it would seem. Good luck to all in 2019 and be careful with your betting, its a well trodden corridor with plenty of broken dreams.
    PS: I’m actually a very optimistic person haha

    1. I’m about to open my 3rd bottle of wine after reading that my friend! 🙂 Happy New Year to you too. This is a great game of opinion and yours is as valid as the next persons. I will assume that your views set out here are set in stone and derived from your own experience which is fair enough, and how can I argue with that. I think some of your points are valid, as always, and some are nonsense, as always. But, that’s the joys.
      I’d hate to ever encounter your pessimistic side! haha.
      Everything uttered in these parts, by me, others, and yourself, is intentioned to help us all beat the bookies in the long run, and hopefully be in the 1-3% of racing punters who are not losing long term. We all have different views on how to achieve that clearly!
      But, you still hang around these parts, so I assume something is working for you!
      Those who have a 100 point bank and abandon after 8 losers clearly wont be making racing pay over time.
      As always your musings are an engaging read.

      The last comment I read of yours, or the last handful, won me a bit of cash so I hope some of your excellent selections return every now and then. Don’t worry, I won’t be asking you to keep a detailed spreadsheet of results or inform me of the prices available at 6pm, 10am, 12am, SP, BFSP etc. 🙂
      Cheers!!
      Josh

      1. My attempts at dry January didn’t last very long in truth! 🙂 All polite opinions/musings are welcome in these parts, life would be rather dull if we all agreed all the time. Such is life.

        1. Well, I prefer to stay quiet. Especially when I have been finishing off the sloe gin.

          I agree with Chubnut on Betting Banks, by and large. And I like his contrarian spirit. But my experience over the last 15 years does show that Chubnut’s statements about portfolios are not necessarily right. I don’t make a fortune, but I make a useful £8000-10,000 a year to small (£20 max) stakes, and in recent years that has been through a portfolio of tipsters and angles. I often end up backing three or four horses in race, and in the classics even seven or eight. I may make 100+ bets in a day, which means a low ROI is fine. I’ve no problem with that, and it has been profitable. And I only have four bookies that still accept bets, plus the exchanges. And among others I continue to follow, er, A2D2, though cautiously. (NB they did advise a tricast of AUX PTIT SOINS / DE NAME EVADES ME / THE EAGLEHASLANDED earlier in the week.)

          Until recently I also held and traded dozens of stocks and bonds in an investment portfolio. Chubnut is correct to say that when ‘having 10 stocks in a portfolio, rarely does one stock have an affect on another.’ But that offers no protection against huge losses. When a crash comes, as in 2008 (and ?2018/ 19), almost all stocks fall dramatically, even the ‘defensives’. (The only hedge is bonds, gold and investments eg in art. Even the bond holdings are providing no protection at present, as quantitative easing is wound down.)

          1. Firstly can I emphasise I’m not here to ruffle feathers, I hope this is taken in the spirit of Josh’s last post about polite opinions.

            I’ve been a member here for between 2 and 3 years and contrary to the what Chubnut says I’ve stuck to the advice regarding banks and it has paid dividends for me so I wanted to share my experience for people new to the members area.

            I came here off the back of matched betting after realising I actually enjoyed horse racing and the thrill of a bet more than the sterile world of matched betting. I started small (£2) using the money I had made in my matched betting days but managed to join at the start of a lean spell and watched most of my bank drain away. Back then I followed all qualifiers (I don’t think there was the wealth of strategies there are now) so the highs were high and the lows were a pain. The downward drift was long and I did question what I was doing but the stats gave me hope and I stuck to the plan, that being stick to the stakes and the bank should see me through.

            Just as the bank started to get perilously low Josh hit one of those purple patches and everything seemed to win. The bank grew and I managed to up my stake to a whopping £2.50. Sure as eggs are eggs upping stakes stops any winning run and things went lumpy again but the graph was still creeping upwards and that was the main thing.

            I’d always said I wouldn’t withdraw anything until I hit £1k in the account and at one point I was up to £985 having only increased stakes when I hit a big (to me) milestone. Just as I was about to start finally withdrawing another downturn came along and I was soon back down around the £500 mark but the plan hadn’t changed, stick to the stake, the advice regarding the bank should see me through. Sure enough it did and before long another purple patch came along.

            By now Josh has introduced the notes horses (the best of the stats quals) and I had seen the light with Nick’s tips. The bank kept growing but instead of withdrawing I pushed on and left it all in the pot so I could up the stake while observing the advice about bank sizes. I wanted to be betting £10 per point on the tips (a bit less for the systems) so I needed to keep growing the bank.

            Fast forward to Cheltenham 2018 and I’m now at £5 per point for tips. Josh knocked it out of the park and I’m up the best part of £500 in a week. Only a short time later Nick hit one of his purple patches and suddenly it’s like a licence to print money. My initial £200 is over £3,000, I’m at the £10 per point I wanted to be and I finally withdraw some money, paying the deposit on an nice shiny new car thanks to Racing to Profit and Nick Mazur.

            After withdrawing to pay for the car I left myself £1500 in my main exchange account and watched it soon grow to over £1850. Sure enough another downturn was around the corner and at one point it dropped back below the £1000 mark but I’d been here before and in my head it’s not real money, I haven’t put it there from my wages, it’s money that’s been made by the good people at RTP and until it builds up again enough to be withdrawn in a chunk for something memorable it’s there to be used as part of the bank.

            Right on cue the systems have started firing, Josh has banged in some nice best of the stats quals and Nick has worked his magic as usual. In less than a month the bank has bounced back to north of £1600. In my head that’s £100 profit on the amount I had after the withdrawal was made, not £250 less than the bank at its height. I’m a glass half full kind of person.

            So I’ve waffled on a lot (I blame some really good beers) but the point I’m trying to make is I personally think you do need to stick to a bank and a stake as advised. The majority of people posting on here don’t tip favourites so we need to be prepared for losing runs that sometimes test our resolve. We’re in this for the long game, not a get rich quick scheme. Be disciplined with your betting bank and you’ll be fine. Lose faith and you’ll lose your money.

          2. Hi Jamiem, and others.
            As only being involved for just 4 weeks i have found the above ‘debate’ fascinating, and i may pen a longer contribution when i have more time. Can i just ask you, and others who might want to comment (and i appreciate what Clubnut said about Banks), where you have used Banks have these generally been 100 points for each ‘element’ you are following, irrespective of the previously experienced Average Price? Clearly there is a big variation between say S3A # with a win rate of 31 %, and say Josh’s BRT’s which are around 10 %. I noted Josh’s guidance in using 2 x or even 3 x the ‘predicted’ LLR s as being a sensible Bank size. Thanks John

          3. I have a bank for each element and each element has a stake size dependant on how confident I am in that approach.

          4. Hi Jamiem, thanks – that’s the approach i have taken, also with examining each element for it’s ‘likely’ LLR – (depending on Winner %) and then multiplying that by 2. All the best John

          5. I made my money trading stocks and currencies and got out a few years ago and bought two buy to let houses with the proceeds. I then got into sports betting trading with a £25K pot. It is a different game and is much more short term, especially horse racing. However the principle of aiming for steady growth and an annualised profit apply to both. The advantage of sports betting is that it not taxable unlike stocks and currencies.
            I do like the ‘betting bank’. Use any profit for pleasure and keep calm and carry on when it drops a bit. Stick with what works.

  7. Systems selections:

    Karl Burke all weather runners:

    1.15 Lingfield, Guvenor’s Choice, 12/1;
    3.25 Lingfield, Helen Sherbet, 201.

    Good prices, however Karl Burke is 2/42, 10 places past 2 years at the track. So a leap of faith if backing them.

      1. The figures come out with not much difference, win or each way. I prefer win but at present there is little difference. Southwell is where most profit comes from and so I would have a separate bank for there and play a bit bigger and dabble at the other all weather courses for now. I will keep on top of how his runners get on and report back at times.

  8. Extraneous matters still severely constraining my time for the nags so only the second one this week.
    Newcastle 11.55 1pt Win Beyond Temptation
    Hugh

  9. I do love a good debate, myself personally I am struggling to “get on” at Early price. I post them for the purposes of the prices as at the time of “tipping” / selecting the horses. As for banks etc, yes it is always useful to put aside a set amount of money purely for betting / having fun. If you are throwing the towel in after 8 losers then this is not the site for you, being able to enjoy everyone`s winning and losing and gaining an insight into people`s methodology for selecting horses, then yes, this is the right place!
    Get rich quick schemes, do not happen, winning all the time, does not happen, but, if you tailor your approach using the guidelines on this site, you will have fun in being able to say, I picked that because of X, Y, Z and not because one of the other people on here have picked it! You could follow Nick blind, or Josh, or any of the other people whose selections on here you use, me personally, again I am quite happy to trawl through the form book, come to a conclusion then look on here and see Nick, Josh or any of the other guys selecting the same as me and think you know what I`ll have another point on!!
    My point being I think you should use your own methodology/ selecton process, before maybe looking on here, once on here, then yes, have a couple of bets, but, don`t be too downhearted if none of us win on any given day, there is always tomorrow and the long term gain both at Early price and SP is there for all to see on a regular basis!

  10. Couple on the dirt for me today:

    Winterlude 6.15 Kempton
    Back to a workable mark and Fanning booked who is 2/4, 3 places on the horse. Horse is 1/1 over c&d and performs best at this time of year. Upped back up in trip today to 2m, so I think this has been the plan. 16/1 presently.

    Mythical Madness 1.15 Lingfield 10/1
    Has been running well recently and dropped in class. Came close in a class 2 at the track in November and was a shade unlucky being blocked off and having to switch and still
    only going down by half a length. Drop in class and step up in trip should suit.

  11. RECENT TIPS
    daily
    N 12.55 – Fisher Green on 8th run @ 16
    Festival
    S 3.00 – Houblon des Obeaux on 5th run @ 20
    W 3.15 – Sizing Platinum on 4th run @ 15/2
    K 7.15 – Buckle Street on 7th run @ 22
    3m+
    S 1.20 – Lithic on 7th run @ 11/2
    S 3.00 – Houblon des Obeaux on 6th run @ 20
    ………..Halo Moon on 1st run @ 33
    GL

  12. Thistimenextyear in the 1535 Sandown at approx. 4/1 is good value as young Bowen
    rides at Wincanton before racing to Sandown to ride this horse which was unlucky last time out.

  13. Betting Bank ref a quote from our old friend Chubnut
    ” Even Colin the bankman himself must have lost a weeks wages chasing it ”
    The reason you have a bank so you do not CHASE IT,and when you have a losing run you are secure that you have enough funds to continue until the tide turns in your favor.
    By having a 100 point bank started backing Nicks bet to £20 WIN only, so there are long losing runs by having the bank and building up i now back to £60 WIN,the same stake of £60 i place on Colins bets.
    Take that you have a winner every time that you place a bet or you have endless funds that it does not matter about a bank,which for myself it is the most important aspect of anyone betting.
    Agree with Josh time that you put up your bets to show us greenhorns how to win and show everyone how successful you are,cannot wait to open another BANK for your bets!!!!!
    Cheers.
    Colin.
    PS for anyone Colins bets started in Sep 2017 and said on occasions that there can be upto 20/30 losers at some stage,so a bank of 100 you still have 70 bets in hand so nothing to worry about.

    1. Colin, did you keep a record of how many points you made from backing Nicks tips to SP in 2018? Thanks

  14. Thought I’d put my tuppenny worth up for the 3.00, On Tour @12’s. Ran well at the Betway and now down to LWM when Mitchell was steering.
    mike

  15. Chris
    Only started backing Nick from 1st March and started with £20 then £40 and now £60 at Betfair Exchange SP so they are recorded at the commission they charge me not at 5%.
    Not having a go at you for this is general over the past year have had criticism about saying records should be kept and soon has i put any figures everyone wants my records.

    This is for everyone Chris not you RECORDS of your bets are paramount alongside a BETTING BANK anyone not doing these two important factors are hiding and in most cases are losing money,for i love opening my ledgers and seeing that what i bet are in the black.

    Betfair Exchanges told me that they only have 4% winners and 96% losers and they make their money of winning bets.
    Cheers
    Colin

    1. Thanks Colin, no idea why anyone has ever criticised you and not really relevant here. I know you keep records and was wondering if you would share that particular one about Nicks tips to SP if you had it? No worries if not possible

      1. Hi Chris
        At the end of the year destroyed the results pages and just keep the monthly returns on one sheet,
        1 march to 31 December my returns are £4,933.36
        March £20 per point win only cannot remember when went to £40 and went to £60 when Nick came back from Japan and what a long losing run he had when you are backing win only.
        These figures are from Betfair Exchange SP only.
        Recorded Jan/Feb on paper and at £20 per point
        Jan + 550 Feb + 745 Total + 1295
        So if i had started backing them as of 1 Jan the years figure would have been £6,228.36 but would have started backing at £60 earlier in the year so possibly could be up to £80 who knows.
        Hope this helps you for that is the best i can do
        Cheers
        Colin

  16. Only the one bet for the first part of the afternoon. Will take a break for lunch and then finalise the late afternoon/evening possibilities and post again here about 2.45.

    Ling 12.40 Sunbreak………… 8.0

    1. Only chances for any more lie in the 5.45 6.15 6.45 & 7.15. Will be back about 5.00 if I find anything of interest. Busy Day!

  17. totally disgusted with myself, i have a notebook on my desk which i use to jot down fancied runners had Houblon Des Obeaux DOUBLE underlined and still didn’t have a penny on aaaaarrg

    1. I’ll send you my opus dei kit after I’m done with it Martin . But I may be a while. There were enough boxes ticked at 20s to have a go and I was close but such has been my muddles thinking in those big chases in recent times I over thought it and talked myself into another one. Was all about the ground and yard form really. They were the reasons for a resurgence. CP back on. And clearly goes well here. As she said after the race handicap marks don’t matter in these race was such it can be what side of bed they have got out of. He was clearly properly on song. Gutting to have missed him when close enough. It will click one day. On flip side I did think he may just get outpaced on that ground now so plenty of hindsight talk there. Still bloody frustrating.

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