A tip from the members’ post today, as it’s been quiet enough this week- hopefully I haven’t now put the mockers on him…
Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/121,57p, +34.8, 1 point win)
1.45 Weth – Lough Salt – 6/1 (gen) (5/1 gen as of 09.12…)
6/1 as of 08.43, write up…
There were two stats qualifiers to look at in this (section 1/test zone) and no doubt I may have picked the wrong one but the selection is twice the price of My Old Gold but i’ll get onto her in a moment. This is Lough Salt’s 4th run over fences and he keeps running at his favourite jumps track. I think he looks set to run a big race today and he could be a shade overpriced. 3 starts ago he ran in his first chase which was dominated by 138/145 horses. He was never really put into it, never really asked for any effort to my eyes. It was a gentle introduction to chasing but in general he jumped well. NTO, back in a handicap and on decent ground, he ran a decent race, beaten 2L. A case could be made that he’d have won that but for an error 4 out which cost him a few lengths just as the race was hotting up, and he was only beaten 2L come the line. LTO he also ran well to a point, but on soft ground, which has never suited him. He made an effort as they turned for home suggesting he remained in some sort of form. Today he steps up in class, which doesn’t concern me given he won easily enough in a C3 over timber at the track, beating some much higher rated horses in the process. It does mean he gets a light weight on his back and his two jumps handicap wins have come when carrying 10-11 or less, inc one carrying 10-5. He may find this chasing experience more enjoyable with this weight on his back, and he’s now 4lb lower than that hurdles win. The CP return which didn’t do much the one time they were worn previously but it’s doing something different, and Paddy Brennan rides for the first time. He’s 12/32,18p, +46 with all rides here in the last 5 years, and it’s not impossible that Guest has booked him on that basis, especially with Fox required by his boss. The other positive is that this race could be very tactical – there are no out and out front runners in this. It is there to be stolen from the front but it’s not impossible it turns into a relative sprint as they turn for home – this will suit the selection given his flat/hurdle speed, provided he gets going soon enough. He returns to much better ground here which will help him. It’s not impossible Paddy switches up tactics but he does appear to be a horse they like to deliver late. I think 6s in this 6 runner race allows the risk. He’s hard fit and should run his race, we shall see if that’s good enough.
The rest have a few questions…Russell’s and Twisters have some wellbeing questions, and the former’s winning form to date has been in very heavy. He also has stamina to prove, and Twister’s runs for the first time over fences. 7/2 and 9/2 doesn’t look overly generous to my eyes, but both are unexposed over fences as are all of them in this. Crest has some questions to answer and i’m not sure soft has been a valid excuse the last twice but he won the race before, on decent ground. Abbreviate looks the right price and keeps going up in the weights without winning – he’s now 0/10 over fences, and is hard enough to win with. As is the selection to a point, but he’s 6/1 and not 10/3. He has the ability clearly and the yard are in form, but i’ll take him on.
That leaves My Old Gold and I wouldn’t put you off a saver if that’s your thing. She has winning point form which may alleviate some of the fears given it’s her first run over fences under rules. But she does have that to prove, as well as fitness. I thought 3s was about right, rather than overpriced. If I could guarantee she’d be fit, it may be a different question. The yard are in form and she did well over hurdles, but then again she could be high enough in the weights and is 9. Her best form to date has been on a softer surface also. So just a few too many niggles in the context of price but she could run a big big race, but it was a price based decision. I’ll find out soon enough if I’ve got that right.
Best of luck if following me in.