Members Daily Post: 04/01/19 (tipx1/complete)

Tipsx1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, updates

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Lingfield

2.00 – Clayton (micro runs) I3 5/2 

 

Wetherby 

1.45 – My Old Gold (novice hncps) 14,30 H1 I3 3/1  WON 3/1>7/4 

2.55 – Frank The Slink (m class) I3 17/2 S5 UP

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.  w2won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/122,58p, +33.8, 1 point win) 

1.45 Weth – Lough Salt – 6/1 (gen)  (5/1 gen as of 09.12…)  2nd 9/2, beaten by better horse, no complaints there, has run his race and delivered to perfection –  a shame she didn’t need the run and i’ve picked the wrong one of the two. 

as of 08.43, write…

There were two stats qualifiers to look at in this (section 1/test zone) and no doubt I may have picked the wrong one but the selection is twice the price of My Old Gold but i’ll get onto her in a moment. This is Lough Salt’s 4th run over fences and he keeps running at his favourite jumps track. I think he looks set to run a big race today and he could be a shade overpriced. 3 starts ago he ran in his first chase which was dominated by 138/145 horses. He was never really put into it, never really asked for any effort to my eyes. It was a gentle introduction to chasing but in general he jumped well. NTO, back in a handicap and on decent ground, he ran a decent race, beaten 2L. A case could be made that he’d have won that but for an error 4 out which cost him a few lengths just as the race was hotting up, and he was only beaten 2L come the line. LTO he also ran well to a point, but on soft ground, which has never suited him. He made an effort as they turned for home suggesting he remained in some sort of form. Today he steps up in class, which doesn’t concern me given he won easily enough in a C3 over timber at the track, beating some much higher rated horses in the process. It does mean he gets a light weight on his back and his two jumps handicap wins have come when carrying 10-11 or less, inc one carrying 10-5. He may find this chasing experience more enjoyable with this weight on his back, and he’s now 4lb lower than that hurdles win. The CP return which didn’t do much the one time they were worn previously but it’s doing something different, and Paddy Brennan rides for the first time. He’s 12/32,18p, +46 with all rides here in the last 5 years, and it’s not impossible that Guest has booked him on that basis, especially with Fox required by his boss. The other positive is that this race could be very tactical – there are no out and out front runners in this. It is there to be stolen from the front but it’s not impossible it turns into a relative sprint as they turn for home – this will suit the selection given his flat/hurdle speed, provided he gets going soon enough. He returns to much better ground here which will help him. It’s not impossible Paddy switches up tactics but he does appear to be a horse they like to deliver late. I think 6s in this 6 runner race allows the risk. He’s hard fit and should run his race, we shall see if that’s good enough. 

The rest have a few questions…Russell’s and Twisters have some wellbeing questions, and the former’s winning form to date has been in very heavy. He also has stamina to prove, and Twister’s runs for the first time over fences. 7/2 and 9/2 doesn’t look overly generous to my eyes, but both are unexposed over fences as are all of them in this. Crest has some questions to answer and i’m not sure soft has been a valid excuse the last twice but he won the race before, on decent ground. Abbreviate looks the right price and keeps going up in the weights without winning – he’s now 0/10 over fences, and is hard enough to win with. As is the selection to a point, but he’s 6/1 and not 10/3. He has the ability clearly and the yard are in form, but i’ll take him on. 

That leaves My Old Gold WON 3/1>7/4 and I wouldn’t put you off a saver if that’s your thing. She has winning point form which may alleviate some of the fears given it’s her first run over fences under rules. But she does have that to prove, as well as fitness. I thought 3s was about right, rather than overpriced. If I could guarantee she’d be fit, it may be a different question. The yard are in form and she did well over hurdles, but then again she could be high enough in the weights and is 9.  Her best form to date has been on a softer surface also. So just a few too many niggles in the context of price but she could run a big big race, but it was a price based decision. I’ll find out soon enough if I’ve got that right. 

Best of luck if following me in. 

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re-cap…damn… Thursday’s tip was an example of the risk you take, esp a 7/2 shot, when backing a horse yet to win, either in points or under rules- having watched his last two runs back pre tip, I thought he’d responded well enough to pressure, but I suppose he didn’t have to fight – I was almost counting my money as he loomed up 2 out then 1 out at Ludlow – if he’d had the attitude of the eventual winner, he’d have won that by 3l for me. He was the best handicapped horse in that race in my view, and tanked through the race, but he shirked it when asked to go past/put the race to bed. Maybe i’m being harsh but he seems like a candidate for the 1st blinkers/make all attempt. Maybe he’s just mentally soft still, rather than a shirker in a battle, time will tell. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

1.45 Weth – Lough Salt 6/1 2nd 9/2 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

From Thursday…

 

PLEASE take the time to flick through ALL of the below…

 

STRATEGY RESULTS SUMMARY

Spreadsheet HERE>>>

 

S1 

  • Dec 18: 3/28,6p, +15 , +15.47 BFSP 
  • Total 2018: 11/147, 38p, +32, +76.77 BFSP 
  • 7.5% win SR, 26% win|place SR, 21% ROI early/bog, 52% ROI BFSP

S2A

  • Dec 18:
    • 1 point win: 3/44,12p, +9, -7.54 BFSP
    • 1 point EW: 3/44,12p, +30 
    • 1/2 point EW: 3/44,12p, +15 
  • Total 2018
    • 1 point win: 13/241,53p, +26.6, +58.26 BFSP
    • 1 point EW: 13/241,53p, +100  
    • 1/2 point EW: 13/241,53p, +50 
    • 5.3% win SR, , 22% win|place SR, 24% ROI 1 point win BFSP, 20% ROI for each way. 

S3A#

  • Dec 18: 4/15,6p, +2.7 
  • Total 2018: 43/137,64p, +75.94
  • 31% win sr / 55%% ROI 

W1

  • Dec 18: 10/53, 14p, +0.53
  • Total 2018: 50/191, 72p, +33.53
  • 25% win SR, 17.5% ROI 

 

TOTAL, 1 point win, (inc BFSP for S1/S2A), inc multiple quals…

  • 716 bets / 117 wins / 227 wins|places / 16% win SR / +244.5 points / 34% ROI 

 

So, with those 4 strategies plus my big race tips/free tips, that’s a +427 point year, which isn’t too bad. 🙂 (with the usual long losing runs! It’s all about the long term) 

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Of NOTE… 

W2 had a strong December…

  • Dec 2018: 9/45,20p, +20.25
  • Total 2018: 33/183, 67p, +29.85
  • 18% win SR , 16% ROI 

I’ll keep an eye on that. I think there’s more logical sense for why W1 may continue to tick along, although I don’t think either w1 or w2 is as robust as S1 and S3A# (as they have a ratings pointer element – so a ‘fusion’ of my trainer stats quals + ratings sets – I hope that makes sense!) 

Thoughts… there isn’t too much to say on what has ended up being another decent year. I’ve always wanted to aim for a +100 point portfolio from the strategies, and a combination of any of the two above has achieved that goal.

If backing all 4 to just £5 per point, that’s been a +£1222.5op year, which more than pays for subs! (and leaves plenty left over to treat yourself) 

As touched on many times, not every strategy is for everyone, especially the big odds ones (S1 and S2A) which do have heft losing runs. 

S3A# has been the star of the show in terms of SR and ROI – logically I think it’s the most sound of any strategic approach on here- given it combines the ‘best of’ my stats pack track angles (min 10 winners, min 25% win SR) with two or more ratings pointers (red symbols, giving us context to the actual horse in that race). If you just wanted one strategy to follow, that would be the one I think. S1 also has a ratings pointer element and i’ve always been confident on that one ticking along also, as the G1/G3 is a constant. 

S2A has worked very well again, especially Each Way, and if that maintains a 22% win/place SR, will continue to pull in the  EW profits. 

I’ll update the links in the Key asap. I’d take a repeat of that year again for those four jumps strategies, no doubt about that. As always, start small and build up over time, i’m not going anywhere. 

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‘Tipsters’… (members who ‘tip’)

Nick Mazur

I will shine the light on Nick, as I’m sure he won’t mind and will secretly like it! 🙂 I have the pleasure of chatting to him about horses most days on WhatsApp as we try and make each other better – it’s fair to say that having first set foot on this blog in 2015, he’s now somewhat set the tipping bar for us all to aspire to. I’m sure he wasn’t that good when he first arrived on these shores… (maybe he was, but just kept it secret!) But i’d like to think he’s a shining example of what is possible when you have a relentless drive to improve your own performance and get better at the game. At RTP we all have the chance to do that, if you so wish. Anyway, that’s enough compliments for one day…

2018 results…

(thanks to James who appears to have gone through all his tips in 2018… approx but pretty spot on… SP where Nick hadn’t added a price, hence difference to his own records) 

633 selections / 193 win or place / 30.5% win|place SR / +400.32 points / 33.6% ROI (from 1192 point outlay) 

Nick’s own Profit record for his tips to advised prices (available x3 bookies at time he posts) …

+532.33 points, or +£5323 to £10 per point (44% ROI) 

Nick is keeping better records as of 2019, for his own benefit as much as anyone else, including to 1 point win BFSP. 

I only single him out as quite frankly he sets the tipping bar on both points profit and ROI, and is something for us all to aspire to. Keep up the good work my friend, I mean I could do with you paying for another nice holiday or two of mine! 🙂 

If you’re not following him, you really should be. I doubt many in 2018 could match those figures in the horse racing space, esp ROI. Knowing him he’ll be wanting to better 2018 and it wouldn’t surprise me if he did. No pressure Nick. 

 

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My LOSING TIPS

Mike (Titus) keeps on top of my losing tips in the comments each day – i’m always interested in how they get on in subsequent runs as i’m usually premature with many of them! 

My losing tips (daily tips/big race/free tips) have been worth backing Next Time Out. From 3rd Oct 17 to End 2018…

810 bets / 83 wins / +232 points Early/BOG 

That’s just useful info, maybe. I need to start tracking my ‘best of the stats’ tips, as many of those focus on unexposed ones and I suspect plenty will win on their next start. If only more had won when I tipped the buggers. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

43 Responses

  1. Thank you Dan & Chris for your comments on yesterday’s page. This is a simplified version of the original concept. The objective is to put up horses that I don’t normally back on B/f before they go to post. The original version was too complicated to anticipate accurately, sometimes several hours before they go to post and was also very time consuming for me.

    The thing to bear in mind is that it is designed for B/f users (cos I’m one of those that can’t get early’s or BOG prices these days), so had no option really but to fish in other waters. So the odds you see alongside them are intended as guidelines for interested backers as to the minimum price I’m looking for. They are also good for keeping score to BFSP so it can be monitored. Not sure as to whether you guys already knew this, but have been meaning to post up a refresher of the rules again anyway, cos I think that Josh must have been on a marketing campaign recently as there have been a lot of new ‘faces’ in here lately.

    So far +24.6 on the month and obviously this is better than can normally be expected. So stay with small stakes for now as it’s only a trial and we’ll see how it goes.

    1. Hi Tim, thankyou for today’s tips which I did back, and a lovely winner……brilliant!! I am a newbie on the site and I will be following you so would be interested in seeing “ the rules”. Thankyou once again for today’s lovely winner, best wishes, Tom.

      1. The thing is Tom that there aren’t any rules really. It’s just that I am reluctant to call them ‘tips’ cos I won’t be backing them myself if I don’t believe I’m getting any value come post time. So it would be unfair and disingenuous of me to put them up without any indication as to what I believe they’re worth.

        I’m the first to admit that ep’s and bogs are the easiest way to make money in this game, but you will always be at the mercy of the bookies when it comes to getting a decent bet on. Is five years now since I ditched bookies and ep’s, BOG and all that other stuff they dangle like carrots to get you in, so it is possible to profit from the game without having to argue over fivers and tenners with large corporations.

        1. Hi Tim, thanks for the info. Fortunately I still have BOG and early prices with most accounts. PP stopped BOG and Bet365 restrict me to 10p each way lol! No doubt I will encounter problems along the line but will tackle that as and when it happens. Thankyou once again for the info, have a winning day, best wishes, Tom.

    2. Hi Tim
      Thanks for the explanation,one question do you use Set SP Odds Limit on Betfair Exchange to guarantee the price indication ie Rio Quinto 6.00 at the moment is 5.1.
      Colin

      1. I do if I’m using the BFSP option Colin but TBH I’m normally already on before the tapes are up. I always try to make sure I’m getting the best price I can by looking at the weight of money in the market. If the backers are stronger than the layers I’ll get the best I can before the SP hammer falls rather than risk missing out altogether. Then again if it’s clearly way above the minimum odds, I might just leave it to chance rather than rushing in and take SP. Sometimes they can drift like a freight train and still win.

  2. Tips – 2.20 Kingofthecotswolds, 11/1 now, 1 point each way. Beaten 3/4 of a length by Nobby, who won the other day over 2 miles. The step up in distance now should suit. Up against a Henderson hotpot but the price allows us to have a go each way.
    3.05 Lingfield, Agincourt Reef, 10/1, 1 point each way. A distance winner now stepping up to that trip since his last run. The trainer is going OK and has his son on board, who takes off 5 LB.

    Good luck,

  3. Big Man Clarence Lingfield 15:05 1pt e/w-7/1-The fav might be tough to beat but he has had plenty of recent racing and has already gone up 20lbs this year. The pick was second in a big field Saturday race which contained no less than five previous winners and a whole heap of unexposed ones. Barring the very well in winner he beat the rest despite being taken on for the lead. That was his handicap debut. He is only up 2lbs for the run and there is a reasonable chance he gets a more uncontested lead here and thought he wouldn’t be far away. Trainer is in solid form and is 3/15, 6p in handicaps at the track.

  4. John Best broke a long drought at Chelmsford this evening,one to keep an eye out for his runners back at next meeting there,

  5. Charlie Pogson is trying a similar trick to the one he pulled off with rollerball Rocco a couple of weeks ago in the 1.15 Wetherby with Quasha . There doesn’t seem to be any money about for it but from memory I don’t think there was til just before the off last time either. An observation rather than a tip.

    1. Well done westy2 this is my kinda interest as well .. remember the pogsons on that one from the other week i remember they always had a gamble at southwell over the sticks as well .. belt off in the lead and hopefully don’t get caught 🙂 . I am a stalker of the dk ivory stable mainly at the moment ….. i can almost feel how there “job” brain ticks now .. they send a few to the track and it’s not always the obvious ones that win or that have mr job jock hinself on “mr winston” ….. he (ivory) could have two losers with ray winston on and then havlin or duern for example go and wins on a 10 – 20 /1 shot .. very interesting and fun to see it unfold ….. same again like last night they sent a few to chelmsford some really fancied .. but out the bag comes TROPICS at 10/1 very well backed by the stable …. i love it 🙂 .. loving your ideas / work westy2 .. lets hope we uncover some more soon 🙂
      P.S. I might be biased as i used to have a horse with dean’s dad ken ivory many a moon ago 🙂 ( great times 🙂 )
      gl/gb
      🙂

      1. The accepted protocol on here is to put ’em up first and ‘sing’ about them after. (Not that singing about them is compulsory). Can we look forward to sharing them in future BEFORE we are subjected to the outrageous bouts of self gratification?

        1. DEAREST TINY TIM ……………. BLESS YOU
          PLEASE COULD YOU KINDLY ” DO ONE ONE ” ME OLD FRUIT CAKE YOU POMPUSS PERSON
          I LIKE CHAT UNDENIABLE BUT SELF GRATIFICATION … YOU MUST BE JOKING !!!!

          JOSH I THINK I MUST UPSET MORE THAN TOLERATE ME ON HERE .

          PLEASE CAN I CANCEL SUBSCRIPTION AND GO OFF ON MY OWN .. PROBABLY A DARKENED ROOM IF TIM WOULD HAVE HIS WICKED WAY WITH ME ….. DEARY DEARY ME ………. WHAT IS THIS WORLD COMING TO …LOL

          ALL THE BEST TO ALL THE MORE KIND HEARTED AND TOLERATING MEMBERS I WISH YOU ALL GOOD LUCK

          REMEMBER I GAVE YOU OSBOURNE FIRST TIME CERTAIN HEADGEARS
          GAY KELLEWAYS FIRST TIME HEADGEAR ( TO HAPPEN VERY SOON 🙂 )

          CHEERS N ADIOS AMIGOS
          GL/GB

          1. CORRECTION JOSH .. I WILL SEE OUT MY SUBSCRIPTION ( UNTIL APRIL I THINK ? ) .. JUST WATCH AND OBSERVE AND LEARN … NO SPEAKY ANYMOREY 🙂
            GB 🙂

          2. Please yourself George, but if I hadn’t told you someone else would have. Self promotion and after timing are not welcomed on here, Josh included. Sure…. bouncing new ideas around for the benefit of all is cool and I believe Josh generally encourages it, but if you want to throw your toys out of the pram… go ahead. I really don’t give a damn.

          3. with the greatest respect .. i wasn’t gloating or anything else .. i was just concurring with another member on methods … what did i say that you misconstruded as self trumpeting ???????? we all have our methods in the real world ……….. i have got 99 systems on hrb …………. do you think i could possibly put them on all here ?????????? best we don’t talk anymore … and be sure of a persons motive before you go large about it !!!

            yours respectfully
            gb

  6. COLINS BETS
    Wolverhampton
    6.15 Peachey Carnehan BOG 10/3
    7.45 Sunshineandbubbles BOG 8/1

    ELITE BETS

    2.10 Kempton Hungarian Rhapsody BOG 12/1

    Hitting the crossbar continued for Colins bets yesterday with a SH 2nd and one backed from 40/1 to 20/1,so not far away just need the tide to turn in our favor.
    Elite bets will put the results up in the next couple of days which is also having 2nd itus.
    Colin

  7. Have split the afternoon in half so as to allow the markets for the later races to mature a little before I commit to any at the evening meets. So back with part 2 (if any), about 3.30

    Part 1…..
    2.10 Kemp’ Holdenhurst…….. 12.0
    2.55 Ling’ Rio Quinto……….. 6.0 (might not make the odds)
    3.15 Kemp’ Anycity……………. 6.4

      1. Only the one more from me this evening at Wolves. Back below it’s last winning mark and dropped back over distance and class. Here’s hoping for a hat trick. 🙂

        6.45 Beryl The Petal 8.0

  8. Gay Kelleway has some mouth watering stats with her 3yo old’s at Wolverhampton.The overall strike rate is 14% 6/44 +60 but the six winners were in 2017 2/7 and 2018 4/12.from my quick look they were handicaps,might be just an aberation or a change in approach.
    She runs a a 3yo this evening in a novice,3rd run up 2.5f in distance,this might be run for a mark for a handicap.Just one to watch for future.

  9. Nope sorry can’t help myself 🙂 ………… brilliant josh just brilliant another monumental f/c up for me again .. thanks for all your continued expertise !!!
    ( sorry tim it was after the event .. but i am not a member of the voyant family unfortuantely ) just a loyal member of the r2p family … ahh bless me 🙂
    gl/gb 🙂

      1. I was going for the ‘leaving them to it’ approach Chris! 🙂

        George’s comment has nothing to do with Tim’s winner/comment, it was a response to a previous comment

        And they’ve said everything they want to say above, so that’s case closed.

        This is the first ‘policing’ of a spat i’ve ever had to do on here, between members as such, so that’s enough of that now. Move it along. 🙂

        Josh

      2. I Haven’t done a thing wrong here ?? have i ?? honestly ??
        is swearing aloud on here ?? 🙂
        get over yourselves ! 🙂

        silence !! ……………………………

        1. No. One person read a comment as after-timing in their eyes, the author didn’t, that’s that. A minor disagreement. Now, moving on. That’s the end of the matter. Back to the actual horses.
          Josh

      3. Is cos I sagged him for after timing earlier. All that BS about operating 99 systems and not having the time to put a selection up before the race….. blah di blah di blah!

        1. many thanks for your continued support .. p.p.p.p.p..s. i have just proofed my 99 angles to josh 🙂
          matter closed !!! ffs

      4. FIRST OF ALL YOU TELL ME TO PISS OFF FOR NO REASON AND NO APOLOGY ! ?
        AND NOW 07.01.19 HERE YOU YOU ARE SELF GRATIFYING YOURSELF ABOUT LOADS OF MONEY FROM A GOLF BET AND ON A RACING MEMBERS ONLY SITE !!!!

        INCREDULOUS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
        GB

  10. While I was writing that piece about Gay Kelleway,it was rolling round in my head something about blinkers,and of course it was George B who mentioned it.I think the only protocols are this area is for horse racing and the free site is for what ever else is of interest,and of course to be polite with your thoughts,if you don’t like what you read just scroll down past the post.I think Josh’s response would be,”Well done George,please share the next one”.I for one quite enjoy George’s interludes,would be a very boring site if all we had was a list of members bets.This site is about positivity,open to all opinions,observations and debate

      1. Don’t have a problem with other peoples ‘insights and opinions’ Martin and TBH that’s the only reason I remain a member as most all the tips given on here are based upon early prices and BOG which are of no use to me.

        If we all were to keep coming on here talking slapping ourselves on the back for the great bets that we had ‘yesterday’, I suspect the newbies wouldn’t be much impressed. As for the people that place the tips for the benefit of all…. despite Mark’s comment I have yet to hear anyone complain about them. In fact from all the newbie posts telling us how refreshing this place is compared to their previous experiences we’ve been receiving of late….. I’d say quite the opposite.

        1. must admit Tim i didn’t read it as back slapping just a celebration of looking at things in a similar way, i love spotting a plot horse myself so am interested in that line of thinking.

        2. Apologies to Mark it was Gearoid’s comment I was referring to in my previous post. All I’m saying to George is…. he doesn’t have to give us the details when it comes to his 99 systems. Just have the courtesy to put the bet up on here before it runs IF he wants to crow about it on here later.

          Not unreasonable, I wouldn’t have thought.

  11. I DON’T CARE IF THIS IS A RACING SITE !!! (SORRY ALL! SORRY ABOUT SHOUTING TOO!!) BUT B’MOUTH HAVE SIGNED SOLANKE!!! WAHOOOOOOOOOOOO & YEEEEEHAH.

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