Members Daily Post: 02/01/19(complete)

No tips, Section 1 (complete), test zone , updates

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Ayr

1.00 – Gars Bar Dine  (micro TJC) 14 22/1 S2A UP

2.10 – Echo Express  (m runs) 14,30  w1 H1 6/4 UP

3.10 – Glittering Love  (m dist) 14,30  w1 H1 I3 G1 Evens S4 WON 6/5 

 

Hereford

None. No stats profile this season

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.  w2won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (Nov 1st 2018: 29/120,56p, +35.8, 1 point win) 

NONE today.

Hmmm, happy with Born Survivor at the prices, no issue there and how I read the main danger. (class winning out, much like Frodon, weight irrelevant) A decent day for the ‘through the card’ and had I got to Beware The Bear when he was 7s+, I may have gone for him on free post – happy with how I read his chance as per free post note, and I thought they may try and make all in 1st time blinkers in a race lacking pace.  (always worth noting 1st headgear and musing as to whether a change in tactics is possible) No surprise that he puts in his best round of jumping of his career to date running free on the front end, jockey booting him into fences and filling him with confidence. He’s enjoyed every minute of that and has just outclassed them. The race lacked front runners and in any case he was just classier than that lot at his best, and the race was packed full of regressive types. Anyway, 5s wasn’t tempting enough to my morning eyes, damn- it did prove to be value. Two unexposed winners …one for S1 at 12/1 and one for Venetia…they were 11 and 9yos, but unexposed over fences – I need to get better at tipping those, and more so when their case can be enhanced due to how poor the opposition look on paper, especially if I have odd niggle on the horse.  The stats content continues to find plenty of winners, many lightly raced in said code (that’s the place to focus- unexposed horses- and those doing something different also) but I need to land on more. Plenty to learn from every ‘missed’ winner.  Still, a 25% win SR and 30% ROI isn’t to be sniffed at and i’ll try and repeat in the next 120 bets. I’m (well a member) now recording results for these ‘best of’ tips in a spreadsheet to advised prices/BOG and BFSP. One of my main priorities is to try and find some form in big races, unless i’m just saving myself up for the big spring festivals again 🙂

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey 

12.30 Ayr – Johnbb 4/6 WON 

1.35 Ayr – Sebastopol 4/6 UP

Irish Trained Raiders (16/1< guide) 

310 Ayr – Mash Potato 12/1 UP

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Trainers to follow

2.40 A – Senor Lombardy (11/1< guide) 11/4 UP 13/2 

12.30 A – Johnbb 4/6 WON 

LTO Winning Hurdlers

1.00 A – Strong Resemblance 8/13  WON EVENS 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

3.10 A – Glittering Love Evens WON 6/5 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

REQUEST…. this is to those of you who post regularly, and who see said postings as ‘tips’… you know who you are! 🙂  if you would be so kind to post a results update for December and for 2018 (for however you record your own results, even if just a simple P/L to the prices you get) that would be great. I’ll try and pull them together into one ‘results update’ post which I’m going to start doing monthly, including the below and all my content etc…

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Results Update Dec/2018: Strategies Summary 

TO FOLLOW. A good start to the year for S1 and S3A#. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

52 Responses

  1. Hi Josh
    Just got back home had a great day many many thanks for the through the card some great winners added to the Paddy Brennan angle in the 1st race and SP2A chipping in with Aux Petit Soins in the 5th race and Achille at Exeter and just to top it off also managed to get the Placepot to £3.20 nearly £600 again very grateful for the tips
    Regards

    Peter L

    1. Hi Peter…great to hear…sounds like 5 winners there and that’s never a bad trip to the races!! I’m glad you made better use of the Paddy B angle than I did haha. Top work. And a nice placepot bonus.
      That Lacey horse looks potentially very good, the early money was spot on as it often is with that yard with their youngsters. Be interesting to see where he ends up. Tizzards Dipper winner looks destined for big things also. Wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up in top races next year.
      Glad you had a good day. I haven’t picked out 3 winners on a through the card for a while so a well timed trip!
      Josh

    1. I was just looking at that one. Looks as if the horse is struggling over fences and so goes over hurdles. His winning form looks good and if we can forgive him recent form the 14/1 looks big.
      So,
      Tips:

      2.40 Ayr, Arthur’s Secret, 8/1, 1 point each way. The horse drops down in distance which I am unsure if that suits? However his trainer is in form and is a local standing dish. Not a prolific winner but has things in his favour here.

      3.45 Ayr, Curramore, 7/1, 1 point each way. A good win LTO. He has to give weight to an unexposed bunch, but at the price may be value?

          1. It is blind at present. It is early days but it is showing a reasonable profit for me. We can filter it down later when the sample grows.

      1. Martin
        Curramore what a drift 7/1 to 20/1 Betfair Exchange 47.7 deductions to come off,you and Nick have both had a good start to the New Year.
        Cheers
        Colin

      2. well some result in the last Martin, blimey, well done! Can’t say I had a penny on but superb call, and a welcome monster drift. I do hope you’re going to keep us updated on P/L this year! 🙂 as you put in some effort, advise points, and only by doing so will it make it more likely people will follow you in over time etc. Keep up the good work.

        1. A lovely drift that one! Galloped up the straight. It did go to 25/1 and then came back in to 20’s. I am recording P&L as from yesterday and will report it here each month end.

      3. great find with curramore martin …… they keep “on a” coming out of this winner grinding machine ! 🙂
        gl/gb

    2. I’ve had worse starts to the year, top work as always! Quite a mad last 3 weeks – another of your spurts which seem to go on for a long time haha. That wasn’t in doubt after 1/2 mile to my eyes given how he settled/was travelling/jocks body language, joy to watch, and perfectly timed for one who seemingly has to be delivered late.

    3. Great pick but a bizarre price change in running. I was only looking at the race thru B365 but it was 2/1 approaching the last bend and 40/1 halfway round the bend and then 200/1 coming to the home straight and then whoooooooooooshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Rocket up its arse.

    4. Thanks Nick, picked a loser in the race and still managed to come out with a healthy profit. That’s what I love about this place 🙂

    5. Superb .. just incredible montonitus grinding down of the bookies advantage …. learning everyday ! well done
      gl/gb

      1. Just back home to see the result – well done Nick, don’t know how you do it but just fantastic. I am so looking forward to the day that two or more (or several) ‘tumblers’ fall into place on the same day and Bookies get taken to the cleaners.

    6. Well done Nick, I had it at 14/1. I said that if he could find his winning form over hurdles he would go well. He seem to have wings on at the end. Shame you beat me to tipping it but happy to collect the cash which is what matters.

    7. Anyone know what it hit in-running or can tell me how I find out? Always interested in these things

      Thanks Nick, boosted it to 15.5/1 with William Hill. Brilliant spot

        1. Yeah thats as high as they go though. Would be interested if it hit any crazy price on the exchange

          1. 590 on the exchange! I didn’t have any at that price but I did get a very welcome 11/1 last night. Thanks again Nick.

  2. 2.20 Wolverhampton – Illustrisime @ 4/1 – 1 point win
    3.00 Hereford – Rosemary Russet @ 4/1 – 1 point win
    3.20 Wolverhampton – Sir Ottoman @ 4/1 – 1 point win
    (Jan -1 point)

    Mike

  3. Nothing today from me. This is from my post yesterday
    “Swaffham Bulbeck in whom I have a share goes in the 3.40 at Fakenham. Should have a favourite’s chance but worried the ground will be too fast. Olly Murphy put it up as his best chance of a winner today, probably the kiss of death. Worth an e/w if he drifts out to 5’s.”
    Duly drifted out to 5’s and beaten a nose on the line, the ground was said to be good but an encouraging first go over hurdles for this season.
    Hugh

    1. Yes very unlucky Hugh, hard luck to you all but at least you’ve got a horse to get competitive on your hands.

  4. COLINS BETS
    Wolverhampton
    1.45 Peachey Carnehan BOG 11/4
    3.20 Dark Alliance BOG 7/4

    ELITE BETS
    2.20 Wolverhampton Illustrissime BOG 13/2
    5.45 Newcastle Zodiakos BOG 10/3
    Colin

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A12.30 – Savannah Moon on 5th run @ 6
    Festival
    N 6.45 – Tommy G on 6th run @ 9
    3m+
    A 2.40 – Fine Rightly on 3rd run @ 9
    GL

  6. A quick note to Tom Murgatroyd, and Josh plus anyone else interested. Couldn’t get to reply to your Q Tom until last evening. It’s there as a response in the 63 comments on yesterdays! Out again now until mid afternoon so just thought i would let you know. John

    1. Hi John, thankyou for letting me know. I shall have a read and digest. Good luck today, best wishes, Tom.

        1. Yes John, did Nicks, Martins and liked the look of George’s. Great day all in all! Long may it continue!! Hope yours was equally as good.
          Best wishes, Tom.

  7. 4.10 Newcastle 3 TREVITHICK Fanning, Joe Smart, B 5/1
    Stallion does well on this surface .
    trainer has tried going up in distance , but thankfully it’s back at it’s optimum trip of 1m again now . Top “from the front” jockey onboard now ……..all systems go for a good run = 2pts e/w 🙂

    gl/gb

      1. missing your system & angle posts mark .. hny btw 🙂
        luckily no other horse wanted to try and win in that race 🙂
        gl/gb 🙂

        1. HNY to you too George! I’ll be back posting when I find an angle worth sharing. My 40 percenters T/J combos don’t work over the jumps for some reason so am currently just reading and learning from fellow members.

          Am supplementing the terrific tips on here by following the market on the last few races of the day when I get in from the afternoon dog walk, doing ok, 15 points up on this afternoon after a 5 point loss yesterday. Not much use to share though as it all happens so fast!

          Anyway thanks for sharing and keep up the good work.

    1. Great pick George, you seemed super keen on Trevithick so I followed your lead……brilliant, well done!!
      Best wishes, Tom.

    2. Well done George, think I need to wake up, missed both your’s and Martins! Damn. Yep you did seem bullish on that one – I need to note when you go for a couple of sentences write up with one, that isn’t the first like that which has won from memory, following such logic! Super.

  8. Jimmy Bell – 12.50 Hereford – 12/1 ew

    Only a small bet on a quiet day. Horse has gone close in two class 5’s hurdles at the track previously, now at a career low mark and with a decent 5lb claimer on, who has a 50% SR with the trainer (2/4). Trainer seems to target the track with a 60% place strike rate in the last year, only concern is it may need the run hence the smaller than average stakes.

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