Free Daily Post: 31/12/18 (complete)

Free Tips

(Free tips 2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018, 9/116,33p, +40)

2.00 Warwick – Merry Milan – 1 point win – 12/1 (betfS/PP) 11/1 (general) (as of 19.06) UP 5/1… odd run, not much to say about that – Venetia’s unexposed one demolished them. He did have some French form over fences which I didn’t fully appreciate – doesn’t show up in HRB/Geegeez-  it does in Racing Post so lesson to learn there, with those from France. Damn. Plenty of educated guesswork needed with him but maybe 8s last night allowed the play. Big step up in trip, better ground (French win on good) ‘could be anything’, first run fences UK, Venetia in superb form. Not sure what was up with mine – not sure he could go with them early and game over around there from that far back, you’re asking for trouble. Maybe i’ll wait for MG or Dicky to get on. 

The final bet on the free posts of 2018 and in truth it’s been a poor few months on this page. The ROI has been decent but there have been a few too many dodgy calls recently and far too many unconsidered big priced winners.  Still, it’s been another profitable year and my tipping profit has always come in spikes, and the number of placed runners has been encouraging enough. When you’re in a rut the easiest thing to do is to avoid tipping/betting and on Sunday I was guilty of losing my bottle with Sam England’s chase winner up at Haydock. He was 11s in the morning and was ‘the’ bet in the race at those odds. I knew it at the time but bailed. He’d got into a pace battle on his run before at Carlisle which eventually took it’s toll, as well as also being outpaced. He lugged 11-8 around that day  and had 10-4 at Haydock, which over 3m3f+ in soft/heavy is no bad thing around there. His most emphatic performance for his previous connections was in heavy and he appeared to relish it here. It was also his 3rd run of the season and could have been coming into peak fitness. Anyway, no point dwelling for too long on that one but there’s always something to learn/improve on. Having looked at this Warwick race, this one jumped out at the odds…

Merry Milan shouldn’t be 11s generally in this line up. The market will guide to a point I suspect and i’d be surprised if he isn’t backed. This point winner made an encouraging start under rules, winning a maiden hurdle through guts/stamina and then finishing 10L behind a certain ‘Champ’ NTO. He was outpaced/outclassed that day, but that form has been franked somewhat in recent weeks! The rest were well stuffed. He returned over fences at Ascot and was in the process of running a decent race that day before he took a tumble- he appeared to land too steeply/failed to get the landing gear down. I’ve no doubt he’d have been at least 3rd there and would have been in and around 125-130 animals. With the 7lb claim he runs off 115 here and i’ve no doubt he will show himself to be well handicapped at some point, hopefully today. Chasing looks to be his game. I think he got bogged in the heavy at Chepstow but ran well. He almost jumped into second at one point down the back and made a brief effort turning for home. In the end he got very tired but completed, and in general he jumped better there than at Ascot. I find it interesting that they return to a track where he ran well in a Novice hurdle, and he also drops in class here. He should appreciate this return to better ground and IF here to run his race, I think he will go very well. I hope young Connor Brace, who’s decent enough for his claim, doesn’t have him too far back. He should find this class/pace more to his liking and the race isn’t packed with habitual front runners, but he will be riding to instructions – these connections usually like their horses up there, pushing the pace, and I hope that’s the case again here- especially as he gets more chase experience.

I was happy to take on the rest at the prices. A few look as though they could need the run. Venetia’s is unexposed but has never raced over fences under rules (incorrect, he had in France, poor) so I can leave him at 8s, but a big run wouldn’t be a shock. I doubt he’ll lack for fitness.  (WON damn…missed his French chase win… which may have made some difference in my head) 

Hopefully I’ve landed on the right one here and can have a good end to the free tipping year. Whatever he does today he’s one to keep an eye on as it won’t be long before he wins over fences I doubt as he clearly has some ability. 

Best of luck, 

Josh 

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9 Comments

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  • The one that caught my eye was CAPARD KING

    Yes, the yard are struggling but this one has decent course form, has dropped to a mark well below where he has been competitive before plus young Jonjo takes another 5lbs off

    He’s risky having not won for a long time but has a huge chance if putting anything like his run at doncaster in February 2018 together+

    whaddya think Josh? Happy New Year btw

    Rick 30/12/18 7:43 PM Reply


    • Hi Rick, oh well if you could guarantee he’d run his race then clearly he’s well handicapped. IN general I like to go with those still open to progress, rather than dropping down the ratings, but there’s reasons to think all of those, inc mine, don’t run their race of course.
      He’s just so hard to win with and i’d probably want bigger than 12s. I’ve backed/tipped him before on these pages where he’s thrown it away a couple of times- i’m sure he dogged it in at Donny on the run in – or in any case was done by two who showed a bit more of a battling attitude! He’s 1/20 in handicap chases, 0/20,4p as a 7/8/9 year old, all wins as a 6 year old. Jonjo has hit one of his ‘are they in or out of form’ periods, 0/19,3p the last 14 days. And young Junior is ‘only’ 1/23 over fences- this is a tricky horse (and he can put in odd dodgy jump!) in which to improve those stats, but the young lad is getting better all the time. He also does just look bang out of form and I couldn’t work out why he would suddenly bounce back into form. Maybe a return here will help as he’s yet to finish out the places around here over fences from two visits.
      I was happy to take him on – I much preferred mine at similar odds – but you’re correct in that if he did return to that Donny run, they’d you’d get a very good spin for your cash, and he probably wouldn’t be far away after the last. It would be a fitting end to my year for a previously tipped one to do me haha. Best of luck.
      Josh

      Josh 30/12/18 7:52 PM Reply


      • Appreciate the detailed response.

        Rick 30/12/18 8:24 PM Reply


    • CAPARD KING heavily punted from 19 to 7 on the machine pre-off

      Rick 31/12/18 2:00 PM Reply


      • yep unlucky esp if you backed him EW, as he was placing there- but alas he can hit one, not usually that hard mind, but he was going well. Messed up with Venetia’s there, didn’t realise he’d won over fences in France, so that win no surprise given her form/step up in trip/wind op/better ground (French win on Good). A fitting way to end the year, mine well pumped also but alas resulted in very little today.

        Josh 31/12/18 2:21 PM Reply


  • NH
    U 1.40 – Dontmindtheboys @ 16

    info/test
    L 12.45 – Documneting @ 4
    L 2.55 – Maddi @ 66
    GL

    Titus 31/12/18 9:56 AM Reply


    • NH profit Wk 22 = – 15.00 @ bog (sp – 15)
      Total p/l @ bog + 43
      Total p/l @ sp – 7.63
      runners since start = 295
      winners = 43
      s/r = 14.6 %
      roi = 14.6 % (sp -2.6 %)
      plcs inc win = 112, s/r 38 %

      will do figures as above when these get to 100 + runs. They are – 17.50 @ bog and – 23.5 @sp and it may be my approach is more suited to summer AW.
      AW wk 10 = 0 @ bog ( 0 @ sp)

      Info/Test picks wk 9 = + 17.75 @ bog ( + 16 @ sp)
      Total p/l @ bog + 55.4
      Total p/l @ sp + 34.6
      Runners since start = 207
      Winners = 26
      s/r = 12.6 %
      roi = 26.8 % (sp 16.7 %)
      plcs inc win = 59 (sr 28.5 %)
      These are still in test mode and as there was a 50/1 winner figs not as they first appear although the av win odds (w/o the 50/1) is creeping upwards which if continues will confirm my initial stats on the potential.

      Titus 31/12/18 12:07 PM Reply


  • Warwick

    12.25 Classula
    13.30 Bredon Hill Lad
    14.00 Capard King

    Uttoxeter

    12.35 Flanagans Field
    13.40 It’s Obvious

    These are the selections generated by my own software
    which is based on my handicapping methods and has
    been in development for 2+ years

    Super results so far

    Rick 31/12/18 12:05 PM Reply


    • Are you able to expand on the results? Thanks

      Chris Sengelow 31/12/18 2:26 PM Reply


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