Members Daily Post: 30/12/18 (tipx1/complete)

Tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Haydock

12.20 –

Culmination   (micro going IF HEAVY tbc Sunday)G3 

Cloudy Glen   (m going AS ABOVE) 

Three Star General   (m age) 11/2 UP

2.30 – Quids In   (m’s class,going,runs,class move) 10/1 S2 UP

3.05 –

Didero Vallis  (m’s TJC,class and going)  w1 H3 9/2 WON 9/2 

Hills of Dubai  (HcCh, m’s class,going and +class) I3 5/1 UP

 

Taunton

3.25 – All Kings  (all Hc’s) H3 I3 G3 8/1 S4  UP

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (29/116,56p, +39.8 , all 1 point win) 

12.20 Hayd – Three Star General – 11/2 (gen) UP…. well that was over at the start. I’m not sure what happened there but he took ages to get going from what seemed an odd standing start. Never in it after that. He had to get a prominent position. Poor. 

as of 09.31…this is all for today…

This one looks worth a go here as he’s running well enough since the blinkers returned and this looks a weaker race than LTO to my eyes – he tried to make all at Uttoxeter and was still leading after 2 out, before being swallowed/out-stayed by two more progressive rivals. If he repeated that run here I think he would go close to winning this. The trip move is interesting. I can only assume they will be trying aggressive tactics again and if he’s got a lead approaching the last, I suspect he’ll stay there. Stamina wont be an issue here today over this distance. The booking of Bryony looks significant, she’s best jockey in this race by far, (and looks like the sort of character she can work her magic on) and Pipe comes to one of his favourite stomping grounds. He has a decent enough record here in handicap hurdles , and with those aged 5/6.  This one does’t win very often but his mark is dropping and his chance is enhanced due to the questions that the rest have to answer. I was happy to take them all on/leave them for one reason or another. Fingers crossed BF can get an easy lead, or hit the front at some point on the final circuit – we will have some fun if she does. 

that’s all for today. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

3.25 T – Diligent 22/1 UP

Autumn Trainers

3.55 T – Misty Bloom (14/1<) 9/1 2nd 

D McCain (14/1< guide)

2.30 H- Quids In 10/1 UP

V Williams/November (track Dec)

3.05 H – Didero Vallis 9/2 WON 9/2 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

1.50 T – Plantagent 13/2 WON 13/2>6/1 

2.55 T – Oscar Rose 6/1 UP

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Johnson/Daly(16/1< guide)

3.35 H – Laxey UP

LTO Winning Trainers

2.20 T – Gwalia 7/4 2nd

Trainers to Follow

12.20 H – Niceandeasy (11/1< guide) 6/1 UP

3.05 H – Gold Opera (11/1 guide) 7/1 2nd

3.35 H – Highway Companion (11/1< guide) 8/1 UP

3.55 T – Misty Bloom 9/1 2nd

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.05 H – Didero Vallis 9/2 WON 9/2 

3.25 T – Glance Back 15/8 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. Tim Vaughan in the North – 12.20 Haydock, Ruacana 33/1 now.

    Emma Lavelle Handicapper < 3 miles, 6/1 + – 3.55 Taunton, Misty Bloom, 9/1 now.

    1. Hi Martin, i am one of the ‘newbies’ only having joined this brilliant Site just over 3 weeks ago. One of the challenges, which i imagine is similar for all newcomers, is coming to a decision about which parts to follow and which, at least for the time being, might be left out, or perhaps monitored/ paper traded etc. I have already started following Josh’s BR Tips and his ‘suggested 4’ and Nick and Colin’s selections – each with an independent Bank. I do like the ‘portfolio’ approach which RtoP offers. I have noticed your ‘selections’ and must admit with time shortages/Festive season etc. i haven’t as yet monitored them. Apologies if i have missed any ‘analysis’ in these first few weeks but i wondered if you could please briefly share any profile you have of Results, W/L ratio, ROI and time period they have been monitored. Also whether such as ‘advised prices’ BFSP ( im a big fan of Betfair) BOG and the like are impactful (if known). Whilst i have 7 approaches already i am not averse to considering or monitoring one or two more such as this and Josh’s ‘best of the jumps Stats Qualifiers’ which is doing well. Hope you don’t mind my Q’s 🙂 Thanks John

      1. Hi John and welcome to the best racing blog on the net, i joined just under 2 years ago and have learnt more in that time than i had in the previous 40.
        my selections are a relatively new approach for me as iv’e been a systems man in the past but have learnt to look at races a little differently and hopefully find the value in the race, i went live with these about 2 months ago and all returns are from my actual bets as at the moment i don’t have the time to monitor SP or BFSP, i quote the prices i get at the time of placing the bet ( with any enhanced places etc) .
        results to date are:
        staked 153.5 pts, returns 219 pts , + 65.5 pts,
        nearly all selections are ew and of course there are losing runs . must admit i haven’t kept a record of W/L ratio’s which i should.
        a cautionary note as i’m probably due a bad week or 2 as we all get them at one time or another 🙂

        1. Hi Marin, many thanks for your reply – greatly appreciated! Interesting to see what you said about ‘ best racing blog on the net’ – i am already forming that opinion after less than a month 🙂
          Very interesting to get your low down – that is really exciting, and i can see the ROI is over 40 %, tremendous! In fact i am amazed at both the levels of the potential profits and ROI s not just from Josh’s tremendous efforts (He must put a lot of weekly hours in) but also you guys who are clearly very ‘giving/sharing’ which adds to the enjoyment and potential profitability! Just hope one day i may have something of my own to throw into it all! No worries re W/L % – i am tending to go for 50 to 100 point Banks, albeit modest ones, depending on the % Winners for each so i would probably go for 100 points for yours, and then modify in light of results. I realise the spectre of the Long Losing Runs which many inexperienced punters just don’t seem to get which i imagine we all have past bad experiences of 🙁

          If someone had said even a year ago that i would join a single Site where you could bet on (or in some cases simply observe) up to 10 or more proven profitable approaches i would have thought that they were crackers. I realise ‘proven’ is bit of a tough one in that the proof of the pudding is ideally over at least 12 months, and some on here are yet to reach that, but the results generally are tremendous. I am heartened with what i see, and wish you well for the New Year and of course for continued profitability with your selections, and those of all the others. Thanks, John

          1. Welcome along John, this is indeed a site that looks after it`s members. I have learnt loads on here and am still learning, be prepared for the losing runs and enjoy the wins!! It`s all about profit and enjoyment, so long as you are getting both in equal measure you shouldn`t go far wrong!

          2. Thanks Stewart, it is certainly a very welcoming Site, and i am sure i will learn a lot too! I will try and keep an eye on yours too – there are so many contributors which is great. all the best John

    2. Westy should have a decent chance particularly as there are very few that are certain to stay this sort of race.

  2. COLINS BETS

    2.40 Lingfield Tommy Docc BOG 10/3

    ELITE BETS
    Haydock
    12.20 Jabulani BOG 4/1
    2.00 Ballymalin BOG 14/1
    Colin

  3. Cribbing myself today with one of my own thrown in, will post up results for December later today and running total for NH season. Sorry no write ups, have to go see the in laws, so, no time.
    14:00 Haydock
    WEST OF THE EDGE 7/1 gen 1pt win
    CHEF D`OUVRE 11/1 gen 1pt win
    14:30 Haydock
    ICE COOL CHAMPS 6/1 gen 1pt win
    TOO MANY CHIEFS 9/1 gen 1pt win

    As always, good luck with whatever you have backed today and hope all horses come back safe and sound.

    1. Superb again. I somewhat bottled putting him up in free post given my iffy form in 3m+ chases. Did have a good look at him so that will teach me. Can see why you went for him at prices. Top stuff. He did far too much on front LTO then outpaced. 3rd run of season, and 10-4 on back compared to 11-8 LTO. Not a bad thing over that trip and he may just struggle with big weights . Only 3rd run on heavy ish ground also and his win was in the slop. Did have a nibble thanks to your tipping so cheers. Should make the visit to the in laws more bearable Haha. I jest. You may not have finished yet either.

      1. After working everything out for this month I am actually quite surprised at the outcome, once again it shows that getting Early Prices are definitely the way forward.
        If I have a bet tomorrow I will update.
        December totals
        38 bets 7 wins Profit + / Loss – at SP (+ 19 pts) at EP (+ 41 pts) didn`t record BFSP
        Overall totals, well, December sorted me out on the SP front, but, only just!
        116 bets 16 wins Profit + / Loss – at SP ( + 3 pts) at EP ( + 44 pts)
        Some great winners in there and the reason for the 16 winners is the extra runners I back in each race, thus bringing down the ROI i believe, but 1 out of 2.65 races I had the winner of in December. Profit is the key though all the way through this and I am tightening up on races I pick in, so, the improvement is there for all to see!

        1. That is for how long the accountants allow access to EP and BOG once you continue to beat the SP they will stop you.
          Early Jan will put up my figures for 15 months since the start of placing bets on here and from June when started recording BOG alongside SP there will be a major difference.
          Stewart all the best for 2019 and keep finding the winners!!!
          Colin.

    2. Lovely winner Stewart, well done!! Again! Love this site, it’s like Christmas every day! Best wishes, Tom.

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    Law 12.30 – Maazel on 4th run @ 13/2
    3m+
    H 2.00 – Dell’Arca on 3rd run @ 10
    …………Ballymalin on 2nd run @ 14
    GL

  5. Have backed Laxey in the bumper at Haydock at 12/1. Strong recent record when the trainer books Johnson for the second run of their NH flat horses, even when the first run appears to be useless, as this one was. Saying that last qualifier lost so not a mega bet, but 3 before did win in a row

    1. he’s ran ok there, still looks very green, pulled for a while, showed some promise down the straight before plugging on. Does run as if wanting further, and may be a longer term project. Or maybe he needs good ground. One to keep an eye on given connections.

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