Members Daily Post: 29/12/18 (complete)

3x ‘best of stats’ tips + write ups, Section 1 (complete) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Doncaster

11.50 –

Santiago De Cuba   (micro class) 20/1 S2A UP

Ey Up Rocky  (m class) (added info: handicap debut)G1 9/2 

Speed Company   (all Hc’s, m runs) H3 4/1 

Dexcite   (all Hc’s, m’s age and runs) 7/1 

1.30 – Terry The Fish   (HcCh) 14/1 S2 UP

3.15 –

Enniscoffey Oscar   (m’s class,age and runs) H3 G3 3/1 

Blue Rambler   (all Hc’s, m class)  w2 10/1 S2 

Tara View   (all Hc’s, m’s dist and age) 15/2 

 

Newbury

1.50 –

I’m A Game Changer   (m age) 30I3 7/1  WON 13/2 

Unblinking   (m class)  w1 H3 I1 G15/1 S4 UP

2.25 –

Reikers Island   (m’s class and age) 30 w1 H1 I1 3/1  UP

Aurillac   (all H’cs, m dist) 13/2 UP

Sandy Beach   (all Hc’s)  w1 I3 6/1  UP

3.35 –

Golden Sunrise   (all Hc’s) 14/1 S2 

Mount Rushmore   (all Hc’s) 28/1 

 

Kelso –  None

Irish Bonus –  None

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.  w2won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +143)

Big Race Tips

None.

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (29/115,56p, +40.8 , all 1 point win) 

12.55 Donc – Via Delle Volte – 13/2 (WH/BV) 6/1 (gen) 10p R4, 5.4/1>9/4

1.30 Donc – Militarian – 8/1 (betfS/BV/PP) 15/2 (gen) UP

1.50 Newb – I’m A Game Changer – 15/2 (betfS/BV/PP) 7/1 (gen) 15/2>13/2

that’s all for today, as of 09.40, write…

Via Delle Volte – I suppose this one is a bit of a poke and maybe too much educated guesswork but it’s very much a trainer based pick. She hits the Lacey fact sheet angle below. Lacey is also 5/13,6p with stable newcomers from other yards on their first run for him, in the last 2 years. That stats tempted me in somewhat and the yard remain in fine form as they have been for months now. Trainer/jockey have an ok record and he’s decent enough for his 5lb claim. Lacey hasn’t had many juvenile runners and maybe these fillies will be a new string to his bow. He usually doesn’t waste much time getting a win from his youngsters so we shall see. She’s fairly well bred but of course i’m taking her ability to jump on trust. If she does I doubt she’ll be far away. Lacey has another in here that he started in NHF where she ran ok- her breeding suggests this 2m may be sharp enough but clearly I won’t be shocked if she goes well. I don’t think jockey bookings are significant as such. I Jardine has one also and he knows the time of day with this type. So, it’s one of those races that I probably shouldn’t play in but at 6/1 or so, due to the trainer stats, I couldn’t resist. She has shown some ability in her flat maidens. 

Militarian – i’m still sat here scratching my head as to why this one is so big in the market. I don’t really get it. He’s progressive, in the form of his life, generally jumps well and this is his trip I think. He also races prominently and I thought he looked solid, in what on paper looks an open/weak enough race to my eyes. His form is ok- the front two were miles clear LTO and he was doing all his best work late, holding off the second comfortably – the horse he beat there likes placing but had a decent level of form to his name. When he ran over 16f at Uttoxeter a few starts back he was 2L behind Bags Groove, who ran at Kempton in a G1 and is rated in the low 150s now. He wasn’t stopping LTO and I think there could still be room in this mark, and he should appreciate this track/trip more so than 2m5f around Fakenham LTO. I would have him a few points shorter. Kim Bailey has an unexposed one in here who may win but he doesn’t look overpriced to my eyes. He’d have been a well held 4th LTO I think but for two in front of him coming down- he looked outpaced at times around 25f at Cheltenham, so it’s not impossible this may happen too quickly also. Bass may well be ultra aggressive on him and if he’s leading over the last I suspect he’ll stay there, but he has a few questions at his price. But not a surprise winner, clearly. The days rest niggles at me for him also. An odd rest period given how good the run before was unless they feel he needs time between races. Bailey is in form. I would have it between those two, I didn’t like the rest, and the selection should be 2nd Fav for me. He is the one to beat on what they’ve achieved on paper I think. It could be he’s not good enough but he looks progressive and overpriced. If he had K Bailey next to his name he would be 4s. 

I’m A Game Changer – another one where i’m sat here scratching my head as to how on earth he’s this price. I can’t work it out. He’s still unexposed in handicap hurdles and this is his first run over 20f+. His best run arguably was at Warwick over 19f where he was doing all his best work late. He ran well on his return at Chepstow and again LTO – he went well there turning for home before getting bogged down in the mud. This is more his ground. He ran well over fences two starts back but they’ve clearly ditched that idea. He has the best form in this race, on paper. There is hot form everywhere you look. The runs at Chepstow/Warwick/Ayr/Ludlow have produced 26 subsequent winners, many of them at a decent level and a few rated higher than the selections 138. When he won at Ludlow 6 starts back he did so easily off 133. He’s down in class here back up in trip and back on better ground. His one flaw is that he can be very very keen- I think that’s built into his price- and it will be interesting to see how Dicky rides him- I don’t think there’s much pace on paper in here – well if Johnson wants to lead I think he can. It could be he decides to try and settle him in front as he did at Chepstow. Or he will try and hold him up and settle him- but he’s then in danger of this turning into a sprint. So, we shall see. In any case, to my eyes at least this price is ridiculous and the fav is worth taking on at his price. His Ffos Las win hasn’t worked out yet, and he has plenty of questions although clearly he’s unexposed and he went well for a long way LTO – like a few in here though he may want much softer ground. Unblinking needs to step up but the ratings pointers suggests he’s done very well ‘on the figures’ and clearly if this one loses I won’t mind him going in for W1. 

Hopefully at least one of these three can go in, two would be a bonus! Best of luck. 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

2.25 N – Vice Et Vertu  8/1 UP

3.00 N – Coolanly 9/1 

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

12.50 K – Secret Escape 8/1 

3.10 K – Craig Star 7/2 

R Hobson (33/1< guide) 

12.55 D – Filpine 66/1 UP

Tom Lacey 

12.55 D – Lady Cylia 4/1 3rd 

D Pipe PU 

2.25 N – Aurillac 13/2 UP

Autumn Trainers

3.15 D – Enniscoffey Oscar (14/1<) 3/1 

3.35 N – De Rasher Counter 10/1 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO Winning Trainers

2.30 Leop- Bedrock (10/1< guide) 14/1 UP

Trainers to Follow

11.50 D – Monsieur Co (11/1< guide) 10/1 

3.15 D – Enniscoffey Oscar 3/1 

12.55 D – Lady Cylia 4/1 / Via Delle Volte 13/2 

3.35 N – Polydora 4/1 

Jockeys/Chasers

2.25 N – Sandy Beach 6/1 / Sir Ivan 8/1 (9/1< best) / Frankly Speaking 16/1 (25/1<) 

LTO Winning Hurdlers

11.50 D – Green Zone 20/1 UP

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

1.30 Donc – Militarian 15/2 UP

1.25 K – Treshnish 3/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. 11.30 Southwell – Karl Burke runner at Southwell, Sylviacliffs, 10/1 now.
    12.15 Southwell – Calivigny at 11/2 now. Won LTO, steps up in distance, gets weight and is a sporting price.
    11.50 Don, Ey Up Rocky, 9/2 now. The Jonjo’s team up on this one. Beaten on its seasonal debut by the vaunted Epatante, I hope he can step up here in a competive race.
    1.30 Doncaster, Another Frontier, 7/1 now. Has course winning form, bottom weight in a competitive enough race.

  2. Evening,

    Maybe I`m being cocky, but, after todays performance I would give tomorrow a go, only because two horses have caught my eye.
    I will probably fall on my sword now, but, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
    So onto the race then.
    14:25 Newbury
    SANDY BEACH 6/1 gen 1pt win
    Yes, its a staying chase, Yes I`m going with Mr Tizzard again and Yes maybe I should have left well alone on the said horse…If and I suppose this is a big if, he reproduces the same round of jumping he did 2 years ago, he wins, no two ways about it. Maybe his last win was because of Tom Scudamore, maybe it was because of the wind op, who knows, but, even this seemingly moderate race could/ should be within his grasp! I do know he has been tipped for bigger things in the past, so, this may be one of those suck it and see races.
    VICE ET VERTU 7/1 gen 1pt win
    This is another one of those horses that only goes for the jockey, in this case it is our old friend Paddy Brennan, he like this horse is so unpredictable. They both seem to gel and were unlucky in meeting Favorito Bucks at Ascot LTO. I think he is better going Left handed and on a galloping track he should be fine, we shall see, he will probably finish out the back of the TV, but, if Paddy get`s a hold of him 7/1 will look a grand price!

    As always, good luck with whatever you back today and hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound.

    1. The going out there was attritional, as proven with Caroles Destrier winning, oldest and wisest out there by a country mile, was interesting to see Sandy Beach, normally jumps up with the pace and was held up? Maybe I should have just watched the race…. Or as I thought this morning, in fact quite a lot with these “Wind op” horses, they need undulating tracks (stop/start in between fences for some of the others horses helps the horses who have had the operation, or, so it seems with the study I am doing. I am with Mark Johnston that it seems all too easy to give a horse a wind op and then put it down to that after it romps home/finishes out the back of the tv). Does anyone else have any thoughts on the subject?

      1. I for one do not think this is Cribbage, just a coming together of like minds, surely, you should say if 3/4 of us are picking the same 1/2 then it is/they are a sound pick and that using our different “form” analsyis, we have struck upon this together and everyone should be lumping on?
        I for one have now backed I`m a Game Changer and Militarian, as i was flirting with doing them myself, once I knew you, Nick and Josh had picked them also, there was a mad scramble to my phone to get on at best odds! If we all tipped different horses then it would be like the old tale of the guy in the bar in an 8 horse race who gives tips out to 8 different people and says “No charge, but, if you win meet me in the bar and we`ll split the winnings!?”. You know only the winner will seek this shady gent out, the losers will just curse their luck for listening to some “dodgy” tipster and move onto the next race……

          1. Absolutely love this blog/site/bringing together of great racing minds, when one of us is not firing you can normally guarantee the others will pick up the slack… Well done Josh/ Nick and Martin. Like I said if all of us are on it you should be getting money down, even though I didn`t win today I did, if you follow my drift 😉

  3. ITV7.
    I’m A Game Changer
    Race 1 – 13:50 Newbury
    Lady Buttons
    Race 2 – 14:05 Doncaster
    Vice Et Vertu
    Race 3 – 14:25 Newbury
    Huntsman Son
    Race 4 – 14:40 Doncaster
    Nestor Park
    Race 5 – 15:00 Newbury
    Blue Rambler
    Race 6 – 15:15 Doncaster
    Wenyerreadyfreddie
    Race 7 – 15:35 Newbury

  4. I do have a few qualifiers for the race but this trainer is stand out for this month of the year compared to the other qualifiers
    1.10 Southwell No.11 Sunshineandbubbles Candlish, Jennie 14/1
    worth one of my pokes e/w for me

    gl/gb

    1. yessssssssssssssssssssssssss ! what a day changer 🙂 well done josh and all other tippers of the finest order 🙂
      gl/gb 🙂 never in doubt mr johnson !! ….. omg !! 🙂

      1. Thanks George, a good day all round tipping wise it seems! It’s usually a good sign when a few of us agree as we all come to same conclusion after our own work. My head needed that after a prolonged poor period on the big race front, Daklondike aside, but the rest have been naff. I’d love that ‘best of’ section to be a +20 points per month tipping element, that would be a welcome addition on the daily front and i’ll work hard to try and keep it there, certainly over sticks!
        Josh

  5. and extra rashers booked for breakfast .. what a lipsmackin day ! .. thanks everyone ..Living and learning on here …. my my 🙂 🙂
    gl/gb

  6. Hi Josh, just a thumbs up to you once again on this brilliant site. Just three weeks in and so enjoying the ride. The time and effort that you and fellow members put in is incredible and makes all of this so enjoyable…….a huge huge thankyou!! Best wishes, Tom.

  7. Thanks gents. Enjoying the journey is as important as the final destination really for me so glad that’s coming across. I’m blessed to have attracted so many shrewdies who post generously and who themselves seem to get better with each passing day. Always learning and improving together albeit are foundations aren’t too shabby! Could do with the odd strategy having a few more winners but they will come along with by own big race tipping. But the ‘best of’ picks are ticking along and of course all the gold in the comments.

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