Members Daily Post: 28/12/18 (complete)

Leopardstown x2 + Write ups, Section 1 (complete), test zone , Leop trends shortlist

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Catterick

2.05 – Trooblue   (nov HcCh) G3 8/1 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

2.40 – 

Iskabeg Lane   (HcCh, micro TJC)  ES+H3 I3 11/2 S3A#

Notonebuttwo   (HcCh)  ES+ 10/1 S2 S3A 

 

Leicester

1.55 –

Copper West   (all Hc’s) H3 I3 G3 4/1 S4 

Astracad   (all Hc’s) G3  6/1 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

Bonus Irish

Leo 2.25 – Arctic Light   (HcH) 14/1 S2 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.  w2won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +145)

 

BIG RACE TIPS

12.45 Leop 

Russian Bill – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/BetfS) 11/1 (PP) 10/1 (gen) 

Jack Fiasco – 1 point win – 18/1 (lad) 16/1 (gen) 

that’s all for big race tips, 09.37

I’ve picked an easy race in which to try and bring some Xmas cheer on these pages, which in general has been a bit sparse in terms of my own efforts! There’s been one 7/1 winner at least, a few placed horses, but many still running and in general it’s been a bit naff. I am still +186 points up for the year when adding in the free post big race tips, but I haven’t had much to shout about for a while now. With any luck one of these can beat 22 others…

Russian Bill – in these races it’s hard to know who’s been targeted and who hasn’t, given it’s a qualifier, (JPs silks are 0/18,3p in this in last decade, for example) but i’m pretty sure this must have been the plan for this one. He’s had an interrupted career and returned after 700 days off two runs back. He came second in this race in 2015, only just denied, and also came second in a decent Punchestown handicap hurdle, which was deeper than this one, beaten by a 139 horse at the time. The question then is whether he retains any ability, as he’s well handicapped if he does. His return to action was encouraging enough, and his run LTO even more so. That Navan handicap 12 days ago may be worth keeping an eye on as it was competitive fare on paper. He ran a very interesting race there over an inadequate trip and received a sympathetic ride. It was over shorter than ideal and he was doing all of his best work late on, staying on to the line and not knocked about. He jumped well that day and this is more his trip. This is only his 7th handicap hurdle and if he builds on that run there he will outrun these odds. I think he could still have plenty in hand. He could do a Baron Alco, and crash on his 3rd run back after a monster lay-off, but he hasn’t had a hard race as yet. Given his form in this contest previously I have to think this has been the plan. Fingers crossed, but i’ll take a chance at double figure odds. 

Jack Fiasco – one from the 10 year trends shortlist below and he was the most interesting to my eyes. I may have change on the others at BFSP but I thought this one looked most interesting. He’s unexposed at this distance and his best handicap run to date came over it, at Punchestown three runs back, where he was doing all his best work late and nearly got up, a big gap back to the rest. This jockey rode him on his next start where he was outpaced, as he was at Navan LTO, but as with the selection above he was doing his best work late, and running on. He has a big field maiden hurdle win to his name, which I like to see (that and/or some G1/2 novice hurdle placed form is usually a good starting place for the Irish handicap hurdle raiders at the Cheltenham Festival) and it would indicate he may be best with this type of test. He knows how to win and I’m sure he’s well handicapped over this trip – whether or not he has enough in hand for today, we shall see, but I was happy to take a chance at 16s. Jessie H has won the race before and I wouldn’t mind her adding to that tally. If these two run their race I think they will be in there pitching over the last. 

Of the others on the stats shortlist… well High Sparrow is interesting as he is just unexposed but he’s only run ok the last few runs and i’d have been more interested if this was soft/heavy. I could have got him wrong but the two selections have certainly achieved a higher level of form to date. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran a better race though, but I was struggling for excuses for his run LTO, unless just an off day, and i’m not sure he runs like one with stacks in hand. His jockey has ridden winners for JOB before, but he doesn’t ride many winners. No forlorn hope but I wasn’t sure he’d be good enough. Satoshi – most of those comments can apply to this one also but he’s very unexposed and makes handicap debut for Gordon Elliot. Those facts plus the fact he’s on a trends shortlist + his price, may be enough for an interest on the machine but it’s hard to know if he’s any good really. It will be annoying if one of these two take it ,but i’ve gone for a couple who are unexposed also, but have some decent big field form to their name already. 4 year olds do with this and he has nothing on his back, and 3m ‘could’ be the making of his, time will tell. Sweet Home Chicago – I thought he was a bit too exposed and wouldn’t be good enough here, but he will be here to run his race and he does stay well enough. This looks deeper than his recent races by some way, and I thought there would be better handicapped beasts in here. We shall see if i’ve got that right or not in a couple of hours. 

Best of luck.

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (27/112,54p, +28.9 , all 1 point win) 

NONE today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

1.55 Leic – Copper West 4/1 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points 

3.40 Leic – Le Precieux 9/4 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

12.45 Leop – Stats/Trends

a winning profile? carried 11-00 or less (exc claims), top 3 at least once last three runs, 3+ runs this season, 0-3 career wins… leaves 10/63,18p, +230 BFSP. (from 230 runners)  

‘qualifiers’: High Sparrow / Satoshi / Sweet Home Chicago / Jack Fiasco 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

56 Responses

  1. Nothing from me tomorrow. I’m off to the lakes for the New Year after tomorrow so not sure how much time I will have to study but will try and get some done.

  2. Unlucky to only get one out of three Thursday. The other 2 both just got pipped. Only one qualifier for Friday and it’s a skinny price.
    Catterick 15:15 waltz darling 3/1
    I did a quick summary of the winners since the trial began on 13/12/18 to get the BFSP minus commission and the current figure is now 12/36 22P +39.5 sp ( +74.5 BFSP )
    Danny

    1. A couple of things, firstly, Nick, I’ve only been a member for three weeks and been following your tips. Just wanted to say well done on some great advice and to wish you a very happy new year…….enjoy the lakes!!
      Danny, are your profit/ loss figures based on a one point win on each selection or do you back some each way if you feel the price warrants it? Thankyou, kind regards, Tom.

    2. Danny.

      They’re some impressive results so far. Congratulations. Long may it continue. I’m watching with interest. I’ll see how it goes in January then decide if I want to start backing them. Well done.

      1. I don’t blame you Stan. So many system start well and then seem to go bad after a while. I am no tipster, just sharing what looks a good thing at the moment so hopefully those that want to, can try and take some money off the bookies
        Danny

    3. Thanks for sharing and taking the time to post Danny. We will all be in clover if those results keep repeating. Cracking start, long may it continue. Best of luck.

  3. 12.40 Lingfield, Ivory Charm, 8/1 now. Richard Fahey sends three runners to LP. The selection has had one run and is open to improvement. He has the Appleby favourite to beat but can go well at a price.
    1.35 Catterick, Sir Runs A lot, 33/1 now. This horse beat paddleyourowncanoe in a bumper, has had a year off ish and has had a pipe opener now. The price seems inviting.
    2.40 Catterick, Notonebuttwo, 9/1 now. At last this horse steps up to 3 miles or more. I think that the distance will suit, as the horse often looks outpaced.

  4. Josh: Starting Points – Le Precieux did not win LTO so is ineligible.
    But 240 Attention Please fits the criteria – unless you know different?

    1. Hi Chris. That one Def comes up against the system I have saved. He won LTO at Chelmsford. My rules don’t specify in what code they won but can’t think many have this particular profile ! Attention Please hasn’t come up in my HRB qualifiers list.

      1. Thanks Josh; AP is not a qualifier, has more than 2 chase wins, my mistake.
        LP is, because I’d never realised that any prior win does not have to be chasing – if zero such wins qualify!

  5. Percy Street Leicester 15:05 1pt e/w-13/2-Decided that 13/2 was just about an OK each way price particularly given the quality of the race. The talent is definitely there in this one to be rated much much higher particularly on his flat rating but he disappointed when with Henderson. His comeback back 15 days ago was encouraging given he has always needed it. They apply first time cheekpieces here and Scudamore is on for the first time. Pipe is in very good form and most things he has sent recently have ran well. Despite drawing a blank here in the past 2 years he is 24/62, 32p +15.51 at the track with NH horses going off 8/1 or less (in fairness there have been many outside that SP). The fav has gone up 14lbs but not really sure what he beat and all his form is on softer and the 2nd and 3rd fav also appear to be better on a softer surface and I thought this one should be closer to them.

    1. Hello Nick,
      As a ‘newbie’ of 3 weeks i just wanted to say thanks for what you share on here and i have been delighted to support yours, along with the ‘Josh’s 4’ plus Big Race Tips, and Colin’s – giving me a 7 pronged attack – each with separate Bank – and i recall you advised 100 point Bank. I just wanted to check a few things if thats ok, and if you happen to have the information (I spotted you are off to the lakes – lovely area – so if you dont have time until you return i understand) I believe that Josh said you had made over 500 + points in 2018 – which is truly fantastic. As an analytical person i wondered if you might have any of the following, even if just approximations; Total number of selections, Winner/Loser ratio, and ROI. Also wondered if the 500 + profit is generally to BSP? I am a Betfair fan and use that normally unless a big advantage is offered elsewhere. Hope you dont mind my asking and thanks. John

      1. I didn’t personally advise a bank but yeah 100pts makes sense. Those stats are from bets as advised which are usually 1pt e/w but occasionally they will include 1.5pt win bits. (on top of that very rarely I might advise 1.5pt e/w and 2pt win and for fields above 25 I will stick to 0.75pt e/w). The prices are based on best available with 3 bookies at time of posting. I’ve started noting bfsp but only recently. I haven’t checked exact number but suspect it’s somewhere around 80 tips a month and I’m guessing around 20% ROI. I plan on keeping more structured stats on this from 1/1.

          1. John/Nick,

            For what it’s worth I asked a similar question shortly after I signed up and then did the donkey work myself, going through all Nick’s selections since 01/01/18.

            He hasn’t always listed the price taken/available so my profit figure is understated and is to the adviced price with BOG or SP where none was advised.

            In that time I reckon Nick has had 633 selections with 193 providing a return (30.5%). Since most are recommended each way I don’t have a figure for winners only.

            My reduced profit figure is still an impressive 400.32 points from advised stakes totalling 1,192 points, giving an ROI of 33.6%.

            Brilliant stuff and as I say, my profit figure must be understated.

          2. Hi James,
            Wow, that is fantastic. Congratulations on the ‘donkey work’ – must have taken you a good bit of time! (I have to confess that once i ve settled it i was wondering whether to do something similar – which is the beauty of this Site in that you can keep referring to post and comments which prove very useful indeed. I think the results are tremendous, and scotch the vast majority of so called ‘services/advisors’ which i no longer trust any of, with the exception of this Site! You said back- checked from 1/1/18, so am i right that it is pretty much right up to date? One quick Q if i may, and only if info readily to hand, any ‘tough’ months and any significant Code (Flat/NH) or apparent seasonal variations worth noting?

            Well done indeed for the update, very good of you to share, and above all extremely well done for Nick’s obvious hard work and success with it! Long may it continue 🙂

    2. I did look at him but had the feeling that he may be a short runner, not stay 2 miles? That was my worry at the price.

      1. Well he won a novice hurdle at Taunton over 16f, where he stayed on well, and it was 9 runners and no dawdle as such, and a 10f winner on the flat. Hard to say from what he’s done that he doesn’t stay this trip, albeit of course there may be stronger stayers, as it could well be as far as he wants to go and track is stiff enough, but Nick’s Value eyes appear to be working again! I’m sure we will all cheer him home.

      1. tho only 2 i liked at Catterick were 2.05 – Trooblue and 2.40 – Iskabeg Lane and have backed them from section 1 but didn’t fancy them enough to put any more money on them.

  6. Vintage Clouds well every Tom,Dick and Harry tipped him after his Haydock win over those extra high and stiff fences mentioned after that race that the form should be ignored,however will be having a good look at him for the Grand National nearer the time if he runs.
    Colin.

    1. That Haydock form really had very little to do with it. He is normally a very consistent animal and hadn’t been out of the places all season last year however in hindsight they might be protecting his mark this year.

      1. Referring to the press and everyone not having ago at you Nick i know Vintage Clouds is a good and consistent horse that is why will be looking at the Grand National if he runs.
        At Haydock were the owner looking for place money and a run and not expecting to win the 5 runner race and in the end had no choice but a surprise win on the day.
        On Boxing Day three of the the five ran and not one won,Thistlecrack doing best with a 2nd and clear of the 3rd so was the King George that good a race,for me that one race at Haydock that form should be ignored.
        Colin.

        1. Firstly, the King George WINNER ran in that same Haydock race!

          I still don’t understand your logic at all Colin in terms of your views on that day at Haydock. Clearly the form shouldn’t be ignored. I fully understand the negative view- ie some horses just hated the jumping experience and you’ll ignore those runs, which is fine if that’s your view. I’m more than happy with my assertion that the fences had little impact with how MB ran that day. (i don’t need a reply to that, we just disagree fundamentally on him which has been well covered :))
          But… surely you look at those who ran well, with more positive eyes? I get the collateral form argument (ie it may not amount to much because X number may not have run their race) but if a horse ran well around there, especially jumping, that can only be a positive can’t it? Looking at their run in isolation, esp jumping, still has value. That is the best VC had jumped for me, but then he was able to measure his fences at his pace. Clearly people who fancied him in the Welsh (me included) were not lured in by his beating of the 2nd and 3rd that day! More his solid run in the race last year, 3rd in Scottish Nat, fit, in form, front running galloper who’d just put in his best round of jumping etc etc. I don’t know what went wrong yesterday – he never ever looked happy and they still seemed to be going a stride too quick for him. Maybe it was just an off day for whatever reason.
          For me those who jumped well at Haydock that day, can be marked up, for their jumping.

          1. Bee in my bonnet too much time at home thank goodness my Hip Op(soon be back to dancing) is on Sat 26th January and will not come soon enough,29 days to go!!!
            At least have time to do research of old methods of mine but very frustrating for up to 6 months ago still walking 3 to 4 miles a day through the pain,but not anymore.
            Cheers
            Colin.

    2. I have been backing Vintage Clouds for the Grand National at 25/1 + since November and will continue to do so at 16/1 or better. I am content with its run at Chepstow and hopefully the horse stays fit.

  7. Handicap chase system qualifier:

    2.40 Catterick – Attention Please 7/2

    I have seen the comments above, I don’t remember there being a cap on career wins / hcap chase wins. Anyway, with my filters then such a cap is not necessary (unless you applied one at the very top end – e.g. 8+ career wins), so this one comes up in my HRB as a system bet.

      1. Hi Francis,
        The rules i’m following in the test zone, for that system…
        Handicap Chases (NOT novice handicaps)
        Class 3-5
        Age 4-9
        0-2 wins in handicap chases (that’s a key rule for me, as idea is that chaser is still ahead of their mark/could be more to come/and ensures not looking at exposed chasers)
        Ran 1-20 days ago
        WON LTO

        I’ll have a dive in again at some point looking at your excellent musings/tweaks etc.
        Best
        Josh

        1. Thanks Josh – I have definitely gone off at a tangent then! Mine most definitely includes some exposed handicap chasers, albeit those with 0 to 2 handicap chase wins and fulfil my other criteria seem particularly noteworthy and account for two-thirds of the profit at a ROI of 61%.

          My tweaks (with some valuable input from Chris) ended on:
          Handicap chases
          Age 8 to 11
          Class and Prize money: both same or higher compared to LR
          H-Run (NH Race Type): NOT between 0 and 2
          DSLR: 1 to 21
          WON LTO

          BFSP Price: 1 to 10 ideally (although I would intend to post those 8/1 or under on the morning of racing for the purposes of the test).

          1. Francis, Can you please clarify a couple of points.
            I am not sure what the 0 – 2 refers to.
            Are you including NOVICE Handicap Chases or just the HANDICAP Chases.
            Thanks

          2. Just handicap chases Colin. The NOT 0 to 2 is saying they must have run in at least 3 chases previously. Those with fewer than 3 Chase starts have performed poorly. You couldn’t be completely confident that trend will continue but I’m happy enough leaving them out as they may be overbet generally anyway.

  8. Well yesterday was productive, let`s hope some of you are following me over the cliff, granted my selections do take a bit of getting used to, but, profit wise you will come out in front, just have to put up with some losing runs!
    Looksnowtlikebrian clouted a couple of fences, just as me and Josh said he would. Rons Dream put in a stormer of a finish and maybe the Eider would be his next target!? As for Elegant Escape, like i said he is just below top class and the front four finished some way ahead of the others!
    Sizing Tenesse form boosted there and it is going to be interesting to see where some of the Tizzard horses go form now on in!
    As for the race at Leopardstown, well, Black Scorpion did what i asked him not to, which was get into a barging match early on, if he gets bullied, he downs tools, which he did all too easily!
    Solomn Grundy did get 4th, but, it was only because he stayed on rather than actually getting into the race and getting beat into 4th…so, with that i am trying over the pond again today…
    12:45 Leopardstown
    THERMISTOCLES 12/1 gen 1pt win
    Well, i really like the fact Joseph O`Brien trains this one, he is not afraid to take on the big boys and prices in recent seasons have shown that the bookies are quite happy to let his go off at some decent prices. (Edwulf springs to mind last season).The horse itself is an improving stayer in the making and i believe will have enough to have the rest of them throwing the white flag up turning for home!
    THE GATECHECKER 10/1 gen 1pt win
    Another who is improving and has actually dropped down the weights to a reasonable mark back over hurdles, will he get left behind early on and not be able to catch up? who knows with these big handicaps over here, but, will take the chance that the price is just long enough for a punt!
    15:00 Leopardstown
    SHATTERED LOVE 6/1 gen 1pt win
    Just long enough, odds wise, for me to consider a bet, she is getting a 7lb pull from all the fellas in this race, but, she is by no means, not big enough to take them on…Having beaten a few of them before I believe she will do so again today, speed and sheer guts and determination will carry her home, plus the fact Mr Elliott decided this was probably easier to win than the King George having pulled her out after supplementing her there!
    KEMBOY 12/1 1pt win
    Another of the forgotten horses, bookies concentrate on what Ruby rides, but, David is fast becoming a good all round jockey and he could maybe get his biggest success to date on this boy! As for the horse i believe the race will be run to suit him and the galloping track will help his all round ability to grind out a victory, would love to see him and SL fight out the finish, we shall see.

    As always, good luck with whatever you back and hope all horses come back safe and sound.

    1. Well done with Elegant Escape Stewart, your bullishness was spot on, but more impressive was getting on him early at 10s>8s. I couldn’t help but take him on at that price. Second may have gone a bit closer but for a bad blunder 2 out – and then i’d have been annoyed for not being on him. It will be interesting to see how far Elegant Escape can go, but clearly stamina is his forte, and on soft ground at any of the festivals he would be one to fear. Still looks progressive, be interesting where they go next with him, but in any case you read him a fair bit better than I did. I wanted him to do that at Newbury!

      1. My reading of him is that he needs undulations, speed up/slow down, if its flat he falters, as he is not blessed with speed, as shown by him nearly getting caught after the last and not having a change of gear at Newbury, but, he has guts and a rematch with Sizing Tenesee at Cheltenham would definitely swing things in his favour!

  9. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 1.00 – Chasing Headlights on 3rd run @ 2
    Lei 3.05 – Ar Mest on 3rd run @ 4
    …………..Vincents Forever on 8th run @ 50
    Law 1.15 – Paddy A on 2nd run @ 11/2
    Law 2.55 – Daring Quest on 3rd run @ 9/4
    3m+
    Leo 12.45 – Pleasant Company on 2nd and 3rd run @ 4
    ……………..The Gatechecker on 1st run @ 12
    Leo 3.00 – Outlander on 8th run @ 25
    GL

    1. I’m back tomorrow onwards with a revised, more simple approach that focuses solely on the races where I have only the one selection. Should be a lot less time consuming for me too, which is not too bad on a quiet Monday but can be a PITA on a busy Saturday.

    2. I know how that feels Stephen. I can’t read a big race to save my life at the moment. Taking a few days can work wonders. When an unexposed one from gigginstown wins a big Irish handicap that I’ve looked at it always makes it more annoying. This game is here to test us. Will all be fine in the long run.

    3. Agree with Josh, you have to be able to take more rough than smooth. As my Uncle says, “It`s not an exact science!”. I was darn unlucky with my pick , but, as above quote says it`s not exact and on another day Thermistocles would have won going away! It is always better to take a break, there is enough sport out there and just chucking your hard earned away is easy in this game and is the reason why owners of the bookmakers can pay themselves millions in bonuses.
      I try to stick with the big races/meetings now, with the occasional midweek treat and i cannot pick flat winners for love nor money…
      It`s easy to say and it took me a long while, but, try to concentrate on one aspect of the racing whether it be chasers/hurdlers/top class races/flat racing/ all weather etc. Then look for reasoning behind why horses won, was it a fluke, probably not, speed, jockeyship and trainers in form etc are all things to look at. Again though, give yourself a break if it all becomes too much. I do this for the fun of it, nothing else! If i win a few bob here and there, great, if not hey ho, there is always tomorrow!

  10. just been looking at tomorrows cards after the 24h declarations, most fields decimated can’t understand it especially at Newbury where the ground is near perfect. not much left to have a go at.

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