Members Daily Post: 27/12/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Chepstow

1.05 –

Beggars Wishes   (all Hc’s,HcCh, micro TJC)  ES+ 20/1 S2A S3A 

Templehills   (m dist) 20/1 S2A 

Calipto   (HcCh, m class and dist) I3 8/1 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)  

2.10 –

Henryville   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 25/1 S2A S3A 

Truckers Lodge   (m age) 14,30 w1 H1 G3 9/4 

Jeannot de Nonant   (all Hc’s, m TJC)  ES+ 16/1 S2A S3A 

Virginia Chick   (HcH)  w2 H3 I1 7/1 S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)  

2.50 –

Yala Enki   (HcCh)  w1 20/1 S2A 

Rons Dream   (all Hc’s,HcCh, m TJC)  w2  ES+ 18/1 S2A S3A 

Kansas City Chief  (all Hc’s) 25/1 S2A 

3.25 – Yalltari   (nov HcCh)  w2 H1 I3 11/4 

3.55 – Born To Sting   (NHF) 7/1 

 

Kempton

1.55 – Momella   (HcH, m age) 14,30  H1  6/4 

3.05 – Just a Sting   (m age) 14,30 w1 w2 H1 I1 G3 10/3 S4 

3.35 –

Pacific de Baune   (m’s TJC and Hcdeb) 30  w2 4/1 

Maquisard   (m class) 16/1 S2A 

 

Wetherby

2.15 –

Lady Butttons   (m TJC) 14 w1 w2 H1 I1 15/8 

Duke of Navan   (all Hc’s) 14,30 14/1 S2

Just Cameron   (m’s TJC and going) 8/1 

Marracudja   (HcCh) I3 G3 11/2 

2.45 – Sheneededtherun   (m age) H1 I1 G3 10/3 S4 

3.20 –

Witness   (m’s class and going) 14/1 S2

Wig Wam Wiggle   (m’s class and going) 16/1 S2A

Espoir Moriviere   (HcH, m’s TJC and class) I3 G3 7/1 S1+S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)  

Bertie Blake   (m TJC) 14 G3 8/1 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)  

 

Bonus Irish

Leopardstown

2.25 – Cristal Icon   (HcH) 28/1 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.  w2won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +147)

 

BIG RACE TIPS

3.00 Leop: Paddy Power Chase

Polidam – 1 point win– 22/1 (Lad/WH/BV) 20/1 (gen) 

Blazer – 1 point win– 20/1 (gen) 

that will be all for big race tips today, 10.45…

Polidam… i’ll try and keep this brief enough… I had some sort of stats/trends profile for this which left s ‘shortlist’ of 12! These two are on that list and I thought i’d have a stab at a couple at decent odds, both trained by the master who’s won this race before. This one is lightly raced on these shores but his best run of his career/for Mullins came when fresh last season. There’s a stamina doubt/unknown but he’s not had many goes over it and the ground is decent enough for this time of year which may help. Given his profile i’d be surprised if this hasn’t been the plan and apparently he’s strengthened up over the summer, which would be odd for a french bred 9 year old – but he does have a similar profile of sorts to Henderson’s winner at Ascot in these silks who dotted up- albeit his stamina was proven. It could be he fades again as they turn for home but at the price i’ll roll the dice and he won’t fail through lack of help in the saddle. I hope he races him handily enough. 

Blazer… a bit of a poke and another whom i’m hoping may improve for these conditions. He’s got some decent ‘festival’ handicap form to his name, including at Cheltenham over hurdles. Arguably his better runs have come on decent ground and the odd run suggests he’s worth persevering with over this trip. He is talented and trainer/jockey are 1/ 6 in the last year, and he rode him LTO- so the fact he stays on may be a positive. He ticks all the stats for this and wears the green and gold- JP has won this race three times in the last decade, Gigginstown are currently 0/22,3p although they are firing a few more darts today. This one is still open to progress over fences and I just wanted to see him over this trip on decent ground for the first time. This one may be held up further back which is always risky but I get a decent price. 

Two pokes for sure, but I didn’t really want to be on anything at 12s or shorter having looked through them. The fav – De Name Escapes Me- could win this well again, having won comfortably enough LTO – he is usually held up and has yet to win over 3m (although should be fine) but that may make 7s short enough. He’s still well handicapped compared to his hurdles mark. He won’t be far away at all I don’t think and this race often goes to those near the top of the market, but there has been the odd 20s+ winner. The others on my trends list, in addition to the two above, were…

Live Love Laugh / De Name Escapes Me / Snuggsbough Beny / Minella Beau / Goose Man / Arkwrist/ Dounikos / Woods Well / Close Shave  / Jett 

Of those at big prices I liked the two selections, so we shall see if I have that right or not

 

from the Free post…. (same work/methodology etc as ‘big race/festival’ tips) 

The Welsh National: 2.50 Chepstow 

Vintage Clouds – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) 

Yala Enki – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) 

Looksnowtlikebrian – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) 

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (27/112,54p, +28.9 , all 1 point win) 

NONE today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Irish Angles

12.25 Lim – Encore Lui (25/1, 16/1< best) 33/1 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

1.05 C – Doitforthevillage 7/1 

2.50 C – Jennys Surprise 33/1 

2.10 C – Anteros 12/1 

R Hobson (33/1< guide) 

12.35 W – Defi Sacre 12/1 

V Williams Nov (track Dec) (16/1< guide) 

1.05 C – Calipto 8/1 

2.45 W – Longhousesignora 3/1 

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide) 

2.50 C – Raz De Maree 20/1 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO Winning Hurdlers

3.20 Weth – Nicely Indeed 9/2 

LTO Winning Trainers

12.50 K – San Seb (12/1< guide) 6/1 

1.20 K – Marias Benefit (12/1< guide) 9/2 

Jockeys/Chasers

3.05 k – Adrien Du Pont 13/2 

1.05 C – Beggars Wish (9/1< best) 20/1

2.50 C – Rons Dream  (9/1< best) 18/1 

2.15 W – Just Cameron 8/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

29 Comments

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  • Cracking day yesterday. Cream rising to the top with Nick, Colin and others in the winning enclosure. Well done everyone.

    Someone asked about how the handicap chase system results varied by class move vs LTO. With all the other filters in place, same class is 69 wins from 206 (+82.4 BFSP, 40% ROI), up in class is 72 from 203 (+129.25 BFSP, 63.67% ROI). Both assume odds filter 1 to 10 and results since start of 2015.

    Francis 26/12/18 9:53 PM Reply


  • Virginia Chick Chepstow 14:10 1pt e/w 7/1
    Vintage Clouds Chepstow 14:50 1pt e/w 9/1 6 places
    Yala Enki Chepstow 14:50 20/1 1pt e/w 18/1 6 places
    Forest Bihan Wetherby 14:15 1pt e/w 15/2

    Nick Mazur 26/12/18 10:10 PM Reply


    • Another good day Nick, much appreciated, thank you.

      jamiem 27/12/18 4:52 PM Reply


  • On Thursday I like:
    2.00 Wolverhampton, Sellingallthetime, 1 point each way, 14/1 now. Drops to class 6, has top weight but only 8LB from top to bottom.
    2.50 Chepstow, Rons Dream, 1 point each way, 18/1 now. A Competitive Welsh National but the horse fits the stats and should stay for the Bowens.
    1.05 Chepstow, Grand Vision, 1 point each way, 16/1 now. This is its seasonal debut but has some decent form and the Tizzards may have him fit to contest at a price?
    2.15 Wetherby, Cracking Find, 1 point each way, 7/1 now. A Sue Smith runner with a low weight with reasonable form in this class.

    Karl Burke all weather runners at Wolverhampton:
    3.10 Guvenor’s Choice – has reasonable form for a 12/1 shot.
    3.40 Made of Honour – Worth a go at 4/1 +.
    5.10 Dancing Ballerina – had a pipe opener and can improve to be competitive.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 26/12/18 10:18 PM Reply


  • Final Nudge for me in the Welsh National at 16/1. Came 3rd last year and is 7lbs lower this time, break looked a concern but goes very well fresh. Sam TD looks a notable booking also. Looks like a lower quality renewal this year so think he goes close.

    James P 27/12/18 12:01 AM Reply


  • today’s selections.
    Chepstow 2-50. Vintage Clouds 8-1 1/2 pt ew sky 7 places
    Kempton 3-35. Mystic Sky 8-1 1/2 pt ew sky 4 places
    Wetherby 2-15. Duke Of Navan 14-1 1/4 pt ew
    Wetherby 3-20. Witness 1/4 pt ew 14-1 sky 4 places

    martin whittle 27/12/18 12:51 AM Reply


    • did have a hard look at Exitas 11-1 b365 Kempton 3-05, and will have a very small ew just in case he can handle top weight.

      martin whittle 27/12/18 12:56 AM Reply


    • well Vintage Clouds has come up so many times in tips/systems i have now backed it 4pts ew and 1pt win at an average of 17-2 all it has to do is win now 🙂

      martin whittle 27/12/18 10:38 AM Reply


      • Good luck Martin. I’m bullish on him but I think the weight of expectation may be too much now. We shall see.

        Josh 27/12/18 1:54 PM Reply


  • ITV7
    Kalashnikov
    Race 1 – 13:20 Kempton
    T: Miss Amy Murphy J: Jack Quinlan

    Adjali
    Race 2 – 13:35 Chepstow
    T: N J Henderson J: D A Jacob

    Culture De Sivola
    Race 3 – 13:55 Kempton
    T: Nick Williams J: Lizzie Kelly

    Virginia Chick
    Race 4 – 14:10 Chepstow
    T: Evan Williams J: Miss Isabel Williams

    Altior
    Race 5 – 14:30 Kempton
    T: N J Henderson J: Nico de Boinville

    Vintage Clouds
    Race 6 – 14:50 Chepstow
    T: Mrs S J Smith J: Danny Cook

    Exitas
    Race 7 – 15:05 Kempton
    T: P W Middleton J: Danny McMenamin

    £1 accumulator for £21,890

    martin whittle 27/12/18 7:39 AM Reply


  • Morning,

    Feel a bit more refreshed this morning, but, annoyed as even though I told everyone Mr Nicholls was in form. I then got blinkered towards the top of the market with his..I did a Josh.It was only when I heard Paul asking STD “Did it stay?” as he was trotting past during the post race interview on ITV that I knew he had been seeing if Politologue would do the distance rather than focussing on whether it could win the race! I know they all send them out to win races, but, sometimes, more long term goals are in the offing. I don`t know how many times I have looked at trainers stats and the outsider of their 2/3 horses goes in, that may be one for the Rain man amongst out there?
    It is why I back 2/3 horses in a race, if the very top trainers are sending 2/3 (maybe even more in G Elliots case), out to win a race, why shouldn`t we as punters be doing the same to win money off the bookies?
    I have long been an advocate of dutching in a race, if your winning the same, then who cares six months down the line how many horses you have backed? So long as you have a healthy profit margin?
    Enough of my ramblings, onto todays.
    14:50 Chepstow
    ELEGANT ESCAPE 11/2 2pt win
    Yes I have a 2pt win horse again, having backed this down form 10`s, 8`s and had a nibble at 13/2 I cannot now abandon this horse on the day of the race, he is just below top class I feel, but, wasn`t Native River, just before he trounced away with this race a couple of years ago? I believe Sizing Tenesee is a great horse and that a flat track and Scu was the making of him, EE on the other hand i feel needs undulations, he has won here, albeit a maiden hurdle, with Tom O`Brien, who averages one win a day on board (he is a reliable jockey, who never gets the plaudits he deserves!) the combination should go well!
    LOOKSNOWTLIKEBRIAN 14/1 1pt win
    After concentrating at the head of the market, we now look for value, this comes in the shape of this horse, tough as teak, bred to stay, trainer has had this in mind for a while and he comes here in form, with a course victory under his belt. I really cannot find any flaws in this fellas repartee, maybe that he does clout the occasional fence, but, apart form that…not a lot!
    RONS DREAM 18/1 1 pt win
    Well maybe I`m too much of a Sean Bowen fan, or maybe it`s the fact I looked at Ron`s Dream and thought 18/1 is too big, who knows, but, cannot leave her out of calculations for such a big prize. Trip and soft ground are her tick boxes! Nick Mordin always used to bang on about certain horses needing certain going to show there best (top class horses are prevelant to certain tracks rather than the going, but, that is another subject altogether!), but, she is one of these horses with her form figures on that ground reading 211 since she started over the bigger obstacles on that ground. She is also a second season chaser, which i know Josh loves, wouldn`t be surprised to see him tip her and I for one will be applauding that!
    15:00 Leopardstown
    SOLOMN GRUNDY 10/1 1pt win
    Across the sea for this race and at 10/1 and with Mr DeBromhead in form I couldn`t resist, as i had looked long and hard at LOOKSNOWTLIKEBRIAN, in one of his form races was this fella, he finished second in a race at Wetherby and that form looks to have stood the test of time. He is 14lb better of with the McManus horse and should swap places with that because of the weight pull, he is another who will not go down without a fight and at 10/1 represents value.
    BLACK SCORPION 18/1 1 pt win
    His trainer wanted the Munster National, so, maybe this is an after thought, but, for an improving horse 18/1 is far too big, he has his soft ground and also a flat track, which i believe he needs, this LH galloping track should also suit, so long as he doesn`t get in a barging match he should be ok.(whenever he has been taken on at certain stages, he seems to bottle it, so if he`s in front coming to the last he should be ok…)
    As always, good luck with whatever you back today and hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound!

    Stewart 27/12/18 8:22 AM Reply


    • Best of luck Stewart. No doubt Elegant Escape will now bolt up haha. Oh Prolitologue was there to run the race of his life but 3m around there in a G1 was unknown to them all. Tricky… As he may have stayed but not to that level. Or 2m4f is as far as he wants in a grade 1. Nichols is just a master. One of those races where it was easier to oppose everything but his patient approach has paid off with that winner. Great to see Thistlecrack run to near his best if not his best. Winner could turn out to be a real star. Will be fun finding out.

      Josh 27/12/18 1:53 PM Reply


  • What a up and down day!!!
    First of all almost tipped three winners out of three SH beat us on one so two winners both well backed from 5/1 to 3/1 and 11/2 to 4/1.
    Putting this up before hear anything from the press,having watched a recording of the King George and MD failing to see out the trip which is so wrong no doubt Nicky Henderson will have had the vet in already and would not be surprised if their is a niggle of some sort which they are struggling to find and only appears to surface when they start to race at full speed for he was cruising and jumping well until pressure was applied.
    Call it Excuses whatever anyone wants but an horse of this quality does not decline this quickly and Henderson said yesterday morning that he was fine on the gallops.
    Finally the day got worse with the Rams losing and once again our Captain calamity Keogh having another shocking defensive display how he has been at Derby for 8 years is beyond belief,the only light of the game was Harry Wilsons screamer.
    Colin.

    cleafe 27/12/18 8:59 AM Reply


    • He bled I believe, and looked awkward as he did at Haydock (certainly head carriage to one side, and his jumping at times, esp later on, wasn’t great, as per Haydock), and that would explain both those runs , looks like previous efforts may have taken their toll on his insides sadly, and now when under the pump he bursts, and feels the pressure, inc mentally – if in pain, he will now know what that’s like when he’s asked for full effort at G1 level- thankfully Hendo knows what he’s doing when nursing these G1 animals back, so we can only hope that he can, but i’d be surprised if he ever reached last season’s heights, if that is indeed the issue- well as per trainer he had blood in his nose after KG. Whatever the issue is I think it was there at Haydock, it was how he ran/jumped/carried himself. Hopefully Hendo can work his magic, but will always be fear of that happening again now.

      Josh 27/12/18 9:45 AM Reply


      • Thanks for that Josh still not read anything about him yet just knew that there had to be something wrong after watching the Kempton race.

        cleafe 27/12/18 10:25 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Wolverhampton
    1.25 Sunnyside Lady BOG 7/1
    1.25 Tasaaboq BOG 11/1
    2.00 Galileo’s Spear BOG 3/1
    2.35 Red Stripes BOG 5/1

    ELITE BETS
    2.00 Wolverhampton Galileo’s Spear BOG 3/1
    Colin

    cleafe 27/12/18 9:39 AM Reply


  • Y’all going to have a double?
    250 Yala Enki
    325 Yalltari

    chrisrees 27/12/18 10:08 AM Reply


  • Been trying a new system for the past couple of weeks and although it might be a bit premature, it looks to be doing ok so far so I thought I’d share in the hope the trends continue. Take from it what you will. It’s mainly based on jockey at course success and class indicators. Some of the prices are a bit skinny but there have been a few juicier ones along the way.
    Selections since 13/12/18 are showing stats of 11/33 20P +39.5 and that’s just at s.p prices so not bad if it continues. I will continue to share if it does
    Today’s picks as follows:-
    Wetherby 14.45 Socksy 7/2
    Wolv 15.10 Fayez 14/1
    Chepstow 15.25 Yalltari 5/2
    Good luck with whatever you back today
    Danny

    freezing1 27/12/18 10:20 AM Reply


    • We always welcome new systems into the melting pot for testing en masse. Only time and the occasional tweak will tell. Good luck.

      martin colwell 27/12/18 11:20 AM Reply


    • Hi Danny, I hope you don’t mind me asking, but will you be publishing your selection method, or just the selections. Thanks Did OK today.

      colin smalley 27/12/18 4:17 PM Reply


    • I’ll just be posting the selections Colin as it’s a bit too detailed to explain.
      Yeah really unlucky today, I thought both the other two were going to win but both just pipped unfortunately

      freezing1 27/12/18 5:52 PM Reply


      • THanks Danny, I would like to follow them, and can I just ask that if there are NO Selections, you also post that message as well,. Thanks again

        colin smalley 27/12/18 6:39 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    Li 12.25 – Poseidon on 1st run @ 13/2
    Festival
    C 2.10 – Buckle Street on 6th run @ 20
    C 2.50 – Final Nudge on 2nd and 3rd run @ 10
    C 3.25 – Prime Venture on 6th run @ 7/2
    K 3.05 – Kilcrea Vale on 1st run @ 9/2
    Li 2.40 – Burren Life on 5th run @ 5
    3m+
    C 1.05 – Top Gamble on 3rd run @ 13/2
    C 2.50 – Elegant Escape on 1st run @ 11/2
    …………Regal Flow on 1st and 3rd run @ 33
    …………Holly Bush Henry on 6th run @ 40
    K 3.05 – Ballyheigue Bay on 2nd run @ 20
    Le 3.00 – Arkwrisht on 7th run @ 33
    ………….Rogue Angel on 6th run @ 33
    GL

    Titus 27/12/18 10:27 AM Reply


  • No handicap chase qualifiers today.

    Yesterday’s lost but will start the P&L from the start of next year as stated before the race yesterday.

    I will also try out another system alongside it which will be trying to grind out some profit from the top of the market.

    Francis 27/12/18 11:31 AM Reply


  • What has happened to Bet 365 – used to be my favourite bookie. Currently going 25/1 the field in the 27 runner 3.00 at Leopardstown (22/1 the field if you want to go 6 places). Overound of approximately 167% – bandits. Mind you Mrs Coates has to get her bonus somehow.

    steved 27/12/18 12:43 PM Reply


  • I know that women jockeys get a bad rap but I thought that was a great ride on Culture De Sivola by Lizzie Kelly

    christopher jones 27/12/18 2:05 PM Reply


  • Frustrating for Nick that 2 came out of Forest Bihan’s race as he was a comfortable 3rd. Nice win with Virginia Chick though, well done.

    chris 27/12/18 2:28 PM Reply


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