Members Daily Post: 21/12/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Ascot

3.05 –

Pilansberg   (micro’s class and dist) 14,30 16/1 S2A UP

No Hiding Place   (m age)  w1 H3 I1 8/1 S5 (IF ONLY 11.00+ BFSP) UP

Darling Maltaix   (m’s class and dist) 14,30 I3 10/1 S2 S5 WON 10/1>9/1 

 

Uttoxeter

12.05 – Blue Rhythm   (HcH) G3 18/1 S1 S2A  UP

13.10 –  Moonlight Dancer   (HcH) ES+ 11/1 S2 S3A UP

2.55 – Up The Drive   (nov HcCh) ES+ 15/2 S3A UP

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.  w2won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +142)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (27/108,52p, +32.9 , all 1 point win) 

1.55 Ascot – Seddon – 6/1 (gen) 3rd 

3.05 Ascot – Pilansberg – 14/1 (gen) UP…ran ok to a point, before getting bogged down. Travelled/jumped well for long way, he will pick up a race. Sadly picked the wrong Nicholls horse…stamina/trip/ground combined were unknowns, but on reflection breeding suggested he may have been crying out for it – his attitude was the question, having rarely found much for pressure and always seemingly just ‘running on’, and he’d often been very keen, but better on his last two runs. He was unexposed and doing a few things different so never a total shock, but the race has set up for him. I wrongly thought that price wasn’t big enough given the questions. Always annoying when those ones are missed but I wasn’t that close to him at 10s so a bit to reflect on. He’s evidently taken time to get to grips with the game but PN has worked his magic. Having watched his last two runs back again, there was much more promise there than I may have given credit for, and he finished LTO like a fresh horse, having been outpaced/interfered with 3 out, and ran as if worth a go back over further. Damn. 

that’s all, as of 09.38, write ups…

Seddon… a Grade 2 novices hurdle wouldn’t be a natural hunting ground for me but I thought this Paddy B micro qualifier below was worth a go at 6s – that looks far too big to my eyes. These are young horses and their ideal conditions may not have been established yet, but he’s only one of two with a win or even a place on soft to his name, under rules. For that reason I think his price should be a bit closer to that of Thomas Darby. This one hacked up at a Muss bumper and George wouldn’t tilt at windmills so it says plenty that he ran in the Cheltenham bumper. That tells me they really like this one, certainly as a long term prospect. He’s related to a very good staying chase family and I thought if this did turn into a bit of a slog, he may fare best. He hacked up at Stratford, as he should have done, but it was a taking performance given he pulled his jockey’s arms out the whole way around, on his first run of the season. Only classy horses can get away with that and still finish fresh, he must have some engine. LTO at Cheltenham wasn’t really run to suit. Plenty of the hurdles were omitted – jumping appears to be one of his main assets and it also meant they were flat out for longer. He was also held up – (still teaching him how to race/drop his head), settled well, but it turned into a tactical sprint. This one will stay further in time and I thought given conditions he may run much better here. I could be wrong, and the Murphy horse has him beat on a line through Elixir – but its different ground which poses a question for him- an unknown though. Th selection has also only run ‘ok’ twice at Cheltenham now and it could be he doesn’t like the track, and wants it a bit flatter/more conventional. We will learn plenty today but he should make a fine chaser in time. He was a couple of points too big to my eyes. The Hendo horse is just short because of hype. He may be special but i’ll take him on with a race fit rival at those odds, and apparently his Point hasn’t worked out that well as yet.

Pilansberg – well a risky one here where anything could happen. He may never be sighted out the back of the TV but he’s unexposed in handicap hurdles and has a good run here in a C3 handicap back in April 2017 which I suppose I’m pinning some hope around. He returned after 500+ days off LTO, where he ran better than the initial result I think – he was sent off at big odds so clearly needed the run. He was out the back but he started to make some promising progress as they left the back straight and headed for the side, before swinging for home. That effort soon petered out but it was a glimmer of promise. I suspect he then blew up but it was also over 24f and it could be that stretches him. In any case, Nicholls is in red hot form, Bryony is on (i’m not sure how she still gets to claim, some obscure rule no doubt, but she’s the best jockey in the race), and they’ve clearly kept faith with him for a reason, returning to the track where he’s run one of his better NH races. He was formerly very smart on the flat in France and will show himself to be well handicapped at some point I think. The ground is a question but he has a pronounced action to my eye, and it could be what he wants. It could be he pops up when returned to decent ground. I get a fairly big price because of those questions he has to answer but I thought i’d take a flyer on him. He drops in trip and class, and we should see more than LTO. Whether that’s good enough time will tell. I thought this looked an open enough race. The other two section 1 qualifiers have form and ground questions for me – as does mine, but he’s not an 8s/10s shot, 14s allowed me to have a go and I could leave both of those at the prices, to my eyes anyway. Always Resolute has a going niggle, in the context of his price. No No Juliet is interesting but i’m not sure she beat much LTO and is pitched into a much deeper race here. She ‘could be anything’ though and could go very close again. Le Musee is most interesting to me of those at the top end and it could be signifiant that Tom Buckley is here, rather than for the yard’s Uttoxeter runner. That was certainly a decent run LTO, bumping into a ‘nice type’ and a repeat of that, or even building on it, will put him bang there against these.

GL with any bets.

 

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re-cap…hmm a blank day sadly. No problem with Native Robin who ran a cracker, maybe taking on 2 more unexposed ones was asking for trouble but i’m not sure i’d ever talk myself out of backing him at 12s. I read the dangers well enough, as I did in the Hexham race…the Hammond horse was probably the one error, in hindsight, just in the sense that I was backing a horse at 10/3 where I had no evidence from him that he could win on heavy – on the other hand that’s why I talked myself out of the winning hurdler from the test zone at 3s, combined with the inexperience of the jockeys and the field size. One of those. A Dunn’s horse will win a handicap chase – i’m not sure what his ideal conditions are after that, but it looks like heavy, possibly combined with that trip, was just too much for him as they straightened for home – he travelled very well but found little when asked. I was more than happy to have a poke at the odds in what I thought was an open race. One to keep an eye on – if he ever repeats his hurdles mark over fences he’ll win eased down. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

1.55 A – Seddon 13/2  3rd 

3.40 A – Imperial Alcazar 8/1 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO Winning Trainers

3.05 A – Solstice Start 11/1 UP

1.10 U – Ballymgroarty Boy 8/1 UP

Jockeys/Chasers 

1.45 Uttox – Reckless Behaviour (9/1< best) 16/1 2nd 7/1 

LTO Winning Hurdlers

2.20 U – The Crazed Moon 7/4 WON 7/4>11/10 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

1.45 U – Blakerigg 8/11 3rd 5/4 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Saturday Big Race Trends x3: Report HERE>>>

 

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Ascot Friday: ‘Through The Card’ for Nick and Tom 

12.45 – Igor

1.20 – Dustin Des Mottes 

1.55 – Seddon 

2.30 – Count Meribel 

3.05 – Pilansberg / Le Musee 

3.40 – Hazzaar / Imperial Alcazar (EW) 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

33 Comments

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  • Karl Burke at Southwell:

    11.20 Helen Sherbet, 20/1 now.
    12.55 Thunder Bobby, 14/1 now.

    Dr Newland Uttoxeter hurdle:

    12.35 Sudden Destination, 13/2 now.

    martin colwell 20/12/18 7:37 PM Reply


    • Helen Sherbet is an interesting one who ive also backed. Won over C&D and is only 2lbs higher tomorrow, has first time headgear on and back to optimum 7F trip. Burke is 3/8 4 places at Southwell when applying first time head gear, 1 from 2 with CP.

      James P 20/12/18 10:22 PM Reply


      • Hopefully one of Burkes will pay for a few sherbets this christmas.brings me back to going to shop for sherbert dips and sweet cigarettes,don’t know if there available anymore,well the sweet fags wouldn’t get past the minister for fun anyway

        gearoid180468 21/12/18 10:12 AM Reply


  • King George just had a look at Might Bite price mainly 5/2 three showing 11/4 so the 7/2 looked a big price after the debacle of Haydock ridicules fences and that form should totally be ignored,lets hope the classy Mighty Might Bite excells himself at Kempton again,and the price on the day may well be shorter.
    Colin

    cleafe 20/12/18 8:07 PM Reply


    • Personally think MB is a horrid price given his last run. Only just won last year in front of Double Shuffle, which has hardly franked the form since. Haven’t looked in depth but Native river at double the price having beaten it the last twice looks like some initial value.

      JamesP 20/12/18 10:16 PM Reply


      • You may be right i am not an Ante Post better but at the time felt that the bookmakers over reacted pushing MB out to 7/2 which on the day remarked that 7/2 was to big.
        Nicky Henderson had doubts over Haydocks fences for he walked the course prior to the race and let MB run on terrible ground and the fences proved to high and stiff fortunately MB did not damage his back and he came home safe.
        After major criticism Haydock reduced the size of the fences and stiffness within a couple of days,that is why that days Chase form at Haydock should be totally ignored.
        So at Kempton hope that he jumps and runs well at Kempton for he was a very brave horse to get round at Haydock having jumped slowly and safely.
        Haydock may have left mental scars on him and till the King George will find out but sure both Nickys knowing him so well hopefully would not let him run if any doubts.

        cleafe 21/12/18 7:40 AM Reply


      • Recency bias (putting too much emphasis on the last run) and value do not go together that much. I am not just referring to this case but generally.
        Native River is a great horse and if he goes the pace must be feared. I do not think the other runners are top class apart from Might Bite, who if he comes back to form wins this. So 7/2, which I have taken, may be value based upon that? We shall see.

        martin colwell 21/12/18 9:25 AM Reply


        • I think 5/2-7/2 is a truly woeful price and just the sort you’d want to take on and who i’m more than happy to be very wrong about – it’s never a race I like going mad on anyway, but you have to have an interest of sorts – I just can’t get over how bad that 1st run was and I simply don’t buy all those excuses given – covering up much deeper problems for me with him. Hope i’m wrong and he shows more and he does usually come on a bundle for 1st run but I don’t like relying on top class horses bouncing back in that way, in Grade 1 chases, and certainly not at that price. We will let the horse do the talking, and I may well be very wrong, but looks a decent enough race this year, esp if like me your starting point is that Mb won’t run his race and will be nearer last than first! (clearly he’ll hack up now and make 5/2 look massive haha) GL!

          Josh 21/12/18 10:49 AM Reply


          • Josh
            You maybe right have been trying to find out how many hands he his for i feel that he his a small horse and Kempton fences are easy so their will be no excuses after the King George,and hopefully after winning the King George he will receive the true status that this nutter of a horse deserves.
            Doubt if i will back him on the day,certainly not excuses,still a little surprised that Nicky Henderson let him run at Haydock for he was only checking the fences 20 mins or so before the race so he certainly had concerns for MB.
            Win or lose hope to see a bold show of jumping from him.

            cleafe 21/12/18 11:17 AM Reply


          • I’m in the camp of Might Bite is finished and may pop up once in a year or 2’s time and has zero chance of winning again. Wouldn’t touch him with a barge pole ever again as he’ll be very lucky to ever win again.

            chris 21/12/18 4:55 PM Reply


            • Chris a very bold statement do hope that you are wrong,for MB maybe a nutter with his own way of racing however his record is outstanding.
              Chasers 12 runs 7 wins two 2nds
              Hurdles 4 runs 3 wins
              12 times first or second out of 16 runs would say that is outstanding,not much mileage on the clock for a nine year old and he certainly had issues over the years,but write him off after that farce of a race at Haydock!!!!
              Cheers
              Colin

              cleafe 21/12/18 5:32 PM Reply


              • Bristol D M didn’t appear to be fazed by them nor did many others. He’s a Gold Cup horse for goodness sake, not some selling plater who doesn’t know how to jump! That’s just looking for excuses for a poor performance, the fear of which is that his very hard spring has bottomed him out, and that is what we saw at Haydock. That is the argument, and as such his previous imperious record is irrelevant if that is indeed the case. It’s either that, and he may take plenty of coaxing back / we may never see his best again OR you are spot on, and actually he just had a proper mental episode when faced with those fences – i’m not so sure but Kempton will tell us plenty. I didn’t like the way he jumped and wasn’t sure if an underlying problem, or a deeper set problem in his mind. About time we let the horse do the talking, I hope we see him back to his best – he clearly wins against that field if he is, but he’s short. I don’t subscribe to the fences being the issue at Haydock, that’s a poor excuse for such a good horse at his best but i hope i’m as wrong as I can be! Now for him to cart around and win hard held, i’ll allow you to gloat if he does 🙂 He does usually improve plenty for his reappearance but at the same time he usually shows so much more.

                Josh 21/12/18 6:24 PM Reply


                • Find this incredible if the fences were not an issue why after the outcry have they been amended after a couple of days after the race.
                  Josh you go to Aintree and in the good old days when the fences were high and stiff i had the pleasure of seeing Red Rum win three grand nationals and finish 2nd twice out of five races away from those fences he could hardly win anywhere else.
                  Now they have made the Aintree fences easier they now have Gold Cup horses running in the national which had never happened before the fences were altered,and with these easier fences doubtful if the great Red Rum would have won a national.
                  Haydock always was known for high and stiff fences but they went to far and had to amend them pretty quickly.
                  Nothing to do with class or a seller if the horse is only 15 hands it will always struggle to jump extra large fences for in jumping they have to arch there back a lot more,the last horse that i rode was an ex racehorse Tyson who was 17 hands and was he big,MD is not a big animal,so no excuses those fences did not suit and on the day at Haydock had about 40% of all runners in chases either fell or unseated and i did put up the correct % after the days racing.
                  Boy will i gloat if MD wins not really!!!( cannot do smiley faces) just would like him to show his true self with his flamboyant jumping which the easier Kempton fences will suit and for anyone writing him off that is for Nicky Henderson and the owners to do.
                  Cheers
                  Colin

                  cleafe 21/12/18 7:58 PM Reply


                  • He sailed over plenty and cleared them with loads of air. Not like he was crashing through them. My point is that other horses coped and in order to finish as he did in a gold cup and win the races he has you have to be a bloody good jumper whatever his size. Haydocks fences were withing the BHA regulations but they listened to feedback and changed them. We will find our soon enough whether that run was an anomaly or not. Hopefully it was as will make that division more exciting if can get back to his best. All ilof this said in context of the grade 1 races …you need to be A1 and very hard to bounce back NTO from a subdued run, whatever the excuse.

                    Josh 21/12/18 9:06 PM Reply


  • Ballymagroarty Boy Uttoxeter 13:10 1pt e/w 8/1-Up 9lbs for a fairly comfortable victory despite making several errors however he beat 2 well treated horses with the rest a mile behind. (the 2nd had previously won by 11L and the 3rd had previously beat a 130s rated horse and was only rated 110). Going by his novice form there is every chance he is a 125+ rated horse and I think there is a decent chance he will follow up. Jockey had his first ever winner today so will be full of confidence.
    Brigadier Bob Uttoxeter 14:20 1pt e/w 15/2-Another who looks well treated on novice form with just about all his runs working out very well. He now makes his handicap debut dropping down in class. Lee is 2/4 in class 5 hurdles off breaks of 60+ and she has a good record at the track.

    Nick Mazur 20/12/18 9:12 PM Reply


    • Have a good day at Ascot ignore my bets would not be able to pick yesterdays winners although the bets are often having support in the market.
      Colin

      cleafe 21/12/18 7:14 AM Reply


  • today’s selections
    Uttoxeter.
    12-05. Tara Well 12-1 1/2 pt ew
    1-10. Moidore 28-1 1/2 pt ew, Grey Day 20-1 1/4 pt ew
    Ascot. 3-05. Pilansberg 16-1 1/2 pt ew

    martin whittle 21/12/18 12:53 AM Reply


  • my Ascot through the card attempt.
    12:45. Ask Dillon 16-1 ew
    1-20. Dustin Des Mottes 5-1 win
    1-55. Seddon 13-2 ew
    2-30. Lil Rockerfella 4-1 win
    3-05. Pilansberg 16-1 ew
    3-40. Chapmanshype 16-1 ew

    martin whittle 21/12/18 6:29 AM Reply


  • 3-40 Ascot . Those Tiger Feet should run well in the Mud, i’ll get my coat 🙂

    martin whittle 21/12/18 6:49 AM Reply


    • Thanks for those Martin, some lovely prices, I could be retiring…….to the knackers yard!!

      Tom Murgatroyd 21/12/18 8:20 AM Reply


    • That’s neat, that’s neat, that’s neat, that’s neat……

      I feel really old now.

      martin colwell 21/12/18 9:28 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    No bet today

    ELITE BETS

    12.55 Southwell Don’t Do It BOG 7/2
    3.05 Ascot Darling Maltrix BOG 10/1

    Colin

    cleafe 21/12/18 9:31 AM Reply


    • Nice one Colin. I’d almost given up on the Elite tips but stuck with it and handsomely rewarded today. Managed to get 12/1 . Cheers

      Ken McKenzie 21/12/18 4:46 PM Reply


      • Cheers Ken yes will be losing runs then a couple of decent priced ones will pop up,one yesterday backed from 11/1 to 11/2 finished 2nd.
        Cheers
        Colin
        PS BANK,BANK,BANK.

        cleafe 21/12/18 5:05 PM Reply


  • RT -11.75
    240 so Eskimo Point 20/1

    kevo19 21/12/18 9:39 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 3.05 – Hit The Highway on 2nd run @ 20
    S 1.30 – Foxrush Take Time on 7th and 8th run @ 7
    W 5.15 – Echo Cove on 8th run @ 11/2
    3m
    U 1.10 – On The Road on 3rd and 4th run @ 25
    GL

    Titus 21/12/18 10:07 AM Reply


  • 1.10 Uttoxeter 1pt e/w Dr Robin 20/1
    Will probably try to make all which is seldom a good idea here and has had 12 runs since March but is a fair e/w price
    Hugh

    alpha2 21/12/18 10:10 AM Reply


  • Do not shoot the messenger,a little late but will pass on Sarah and Phil Bryson love to run their horses at Southwell and fancy their three today to run a race however the draw as not been kind and decided against putting them has colins bets

    11.20 Bold Spirit
    12.55 Bee Machine
    2.05 Shearian
    They all ran 3 days ago
    All Visored
    All have 7lb claimers aboard
    And Declon Carroll can get them ready.
    The draw for me is very off putting,if they do not win today put them in your tracker.

    Colin

    cleafe 21/12/18 10:28 AM Reply


  • Thankyou for all your time and effort Josh, very much appreciated. Kind regards, Tom.

    Tom Murgatroyd 21/12/18 11:44 AM Reply


    • Well I hope you ignored me race 1 and went with Martin’s excellent poke! I didn’t spend too much time in truth, bar the two tipped races etc. Hopefully I can land on at least 2, we shall see! Looks very very testing there, maybe a tad more than I appreciated. Have fun.

      Josh 21/12/18 1:02 PM Reply


  • 7.15 Wolverhampton Little 11/1 BV 10/1 generally
    Form Jockey Callum Rodriguez has now just the one booking at the track unless he picks up some spare rides.Lyn Sidall does ok at the track and is in form 1/1.Callum has won on the horse at Newcastle and was on her recent winner,hoping she has booked him for a repeat performance

    gearoid180468 21/12/18 2:16 PM Reply


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