Members Daily Post: 20/12/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Exeter

1.10 –

Shalakar  (micro’s class/runs) 14  w2 H3 I3 10/3  2nd 

Radical Archie (all Hc’s, HcH)  w2 I3 G3 7/2 

Trans Express  (m class/runs)  w1 H1 I1 G3 3/1 S4 WON 20p R4, 2.4/1 dec > 2/1 

1.40 –

Le Boizelo  (HcCh) 14 30 9/1 3rd 10/1 

Native Robin  (m runs)  w1 H3 G3 10/1 S1 S2  2nd 9/1 

2.40 – Colmers Hill  (m TJC/class/runs)  w1 H1 9/2 UP

 

Hexham

2.00 – Misfits  (m class/runs/class move) H1 I1 G3 11/8 S4 3rd

2.30 –

Royal Salute (HcCh) H3 G1 13/2 UP

Moorstown  (m class) I3 12/1 S2 S5 UP

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.  w2won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +142)

 

Best of the Jumps Stats Quals? (27/106,51p, +34.9 , all 1 point win) 

1.40 Exet – Native Robin – 12/1 (gen) 2nd Ah damn, well it was too much to ask to get both top 2 beaten, it looked so good two out, thought he was winning, sadly stamina just gave out in that ground over the last to one with more in hand and will stay further- he’d just got outpaced momentarily- I was hoping he was done for. Not to be but a decent run, another place. Highlighted wrong danger horse of top 2 there, but the 1-2-3 from the shortlist of four. (no I didn’t do the combo ticast) 

2.30 Hex – Late Date – 10/3 (gen) UP

2.40 Exet – Tactical Manoeuvre – 10/1 (gen) UP 6/1…travelled really well but has got bogged down 3 out or so- hasn’t stayed in that ground, or hasn’t actually enjoyed the going, running out of steam, but that run is better than it will look on paper- jumped well- he has chase wins in him from that mark at some point. 

as of 09.26, write ups…

 

Native Robin… well it may prove foolish taking on the top two in this race but Native Robin is a silly price here. I don’t fully understand his odds, but maybe i’ll find out why soon enough. How he’s a bigger price than Night of Sin at 13/2 I have no idea. This horse likes winning, stays well, heavy is no problem, he’s in superb form and given before the start of last season he’d had 540+ days off with a leg, (tendon injury) there’s a chance he’s still open to improvement. He seems best in the first half of the season on the evidence to date and won a shade cosily LTO. He’s tactically versatile – NS has won making all on him before, and he’s also held him up mid div plenty of time – so i’m not sure what he will do here but with any luck he isn’t too far off the pace. He’s run ok at the track before over fences, over too short and on only his second run back after his injury, but stayed on ok before bolting up NTO when upped in trip. Anyway, it will be ultimate pain if he doesn’t win as he’s a S1 and W1 also, but there we go. On my subjective form/profile assessment etc this price is silly. Air Navigator is a worthy fav at 3/1 and I wouldn’t put anyone off a saver if that’s your thing. He’s open to progress, beat a horse who won at Newbury yesterday, races prominently enough and shouldn’t be far away. I did think he was worth taking on given he had a hard enough race there and could ‘bounce’ although has had enough time to recover- he does have to prove his stamina in heavy…and I wasn’t convinced with his jumping LTO, having watched the run back. He’s entitled to be sticky at the odd fence given his inexperience, but he may clout the odd one. That’s the same for The Kings Writ who’s now come down twice in recent runs, the last time when going to bolt up. He may do so again at 4s and Cobden may be able to work his magic – and his fall LTO was the jockeys fault, they were out of sync with each other as he tried to slow him down approaching the fence, rather than booting him into it- a chance he felt he was on the wrong stride etc, but he’d pinged the rest of them. Both of those are open to more progress than mine and I may be asking too much for both to fluff their lines, but it’s not impossible there’s some jumping issues from the pair – the irony now of course is that Native’s jumping will fall to pieces!! 🙂 I can leave the Walford horse at single figure odds but he does love the mud and is unexposed, but a few too many questions for me at the moment and all three horses mentioned have a higher level of form/look more interesting in this race. I could be wrong and the yard are flying. I would have it between those four and haven’t read this race very well at all if one of them doesnt win! 

Late Date… he drifted out to 10/3 across the board as I got to him and that was big enough for me to wade in – (how times have changed!) – he should be no bigger than 5/2 for me, is a 1 point too big, and I had this between him and the Alexander horse, who would be the main danger for me. This horse won easily enough LTO, finishing ahead of a 121 horse, and staying on strongly. He made all at Sedgefield and may attempt to do so again here, or in any case will be in the right spot. His jumping was decent enough LTO- the write ups said he went out to his right a few times but I couldn’t pick that up having watched the replay, certainly not from 4 out. He’s thoroughly unexposed as a chaser and with that win has achieved a higher level of chase form than his market rival. He’s run well on heavy before over hurdles where I don’t think the ground beat him but his career is all about fences. His sire’s offspring generally have no issues with a bog. There’s a chance his big weight impacts him (as it appears to have done for Rock The Kasbah when tipped at Chelt) but he’s got that because he’s down in class and he looks a strapping enough chaser. Anyway, given the oppo i’ll take a chance at 10/3, for a yard who are starting to show some life, and may have a good couple of weeks ahead. Mcginty’s Dream appears to be getting his act together over fences and may have just taken time to mature/grow. His light weight may be a bonus here- he was keen LTO and as such was held up, and if that’s the case again he will have to chase the selection, who I hope will have more class – but he could win this, but hopefully not- he will win chases on the evidence of that last run, soon enough. I was happy to take on the rest for one reason or another, at the prices. 

TM.. i’m destined to never get these A Dunn micro horses right – i haven’t tipped any of her recent winners from that micro. She’s in the best form I can remember and it appears to be rubbing off on plenty of her string. The money appears to be pouring on and 6s is getting short for this one now – but he’s unexposed over fences and could be tuned up to strike after two hurdle runs to blow the cobwebs away, with Wedge back on. He has some winning hurdles form in previous seasons which suggests he could show himself to be thrown in off this mark one day, if transferring that ability.  He’s had an interrupted career suggesting he’s had injuries, and if they were anything to do with his legs, it’s now not impossible that he wants a softer surface, as opposed to pounding away on Good+. I want to see him over a trip in soft/heavy, as there are a few runs which suggest to me he could relish it. Time will tell, but he was worth a go at 10s, but i’m not sure what price i’ll be declaring at when he romps home as that didn’t last long, 6s I suspect. He may drift back out. Clearly I won’t mind if Colmer’s Hill wins but he’s a slight question about going RH, and he’s gone up 6lb for a narrow victory – but he’s not without a chance, and I clearly won’t mind if he wins for w1. There may be a better treated/more progressive rival now, but he could just be getting his act together over fences. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

R Hobson (33/1< guide) 

3.40 Exet – Echo Watt 9/1 UP

A Dunn (28/1< guide) 

2.40 Exet – Tactical Manoeuvre 12/1  UP 6/1

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning hurdlers

3.40 Exet – Mauna Kea 3/1 WON 3/1 >2/1 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

2.30 H – Late Date 3/1 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Looking ahead…

Well i’ve done some reflecting on my recent big race tipping form, and you can flick through that/watch a video if you wish HERE>>>

This weekend…there looks to be three races of interest… The Tommy Whittle from Haydock, and from Ascot the Silver Cup Handicap Chase and the Grade 3 handicap hurdle. 

I will get any stats/trends up for those asap, likely Thursday at some point. 

That will be the last days racing for three days… hurrah! (some down time is never a bad thing) the Festive period…well Boxing day may be light on the tipping front – there will be the strategies etc but i’m also off to Huntingdon for their race meeting. Attacking Boxing day properly, involves working on Xmas day really, or indeed Xmas eve – I drained myself doing that last year and have no intention to do so again this. It starts to hot up on the 27th with The Welsh Grand National and that will get my full attention as always, and I may cast my eye over to Ireland where there is the Grade B Paddy Power Handicap Chase from Leopardstown and I think they have a decent handicap hurdle that’s usually won by something at a big price. I haven’t looked beyond the 27th as yet. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

25 Comments

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  • Well done Colin, a very nice double today

    Tom Murgatroyd 19/12/18 5:51 PM Reply


  • Karl Burke all weather runner – 12.20 Southwell, Golden Guide, 14/1 now.

    martin colwell 19/12/18 7:28 PM Reply


    • Well done martin ..nicked a nice bit of e/w with you there 🙂

      gl/gb 🙂

      GEORGE B 20/12/18 1:38 PM Reply


  • Nothing stands out tomorrow

    Nick Mazur 19/12/18 9:47 PM Reply


  • no selections today but there are 3 at good odds i’m doing to minimum stakes and a very small ew patent.
    Hexham. 2-00. Turtle Cask 10-1
    Exeter.1-40. Rainy Day Dylan 20-1
    Exeter. 2-40. Some Finish 25-1

    martin whittle 20/12/18 12:45 AM Reply


    • just noticed Gannicus 12-1 is running in the Chelmsford 5-30, been keeping my eye on this one, fit from hurdling and i’m hoping for an improved effort back on the flat, can’t tip it but i’ll be having a few quid on.

      martin whittle 20/12/18 1:03 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin. I have been following your tips recently and you appear to be doing very well..

      Hope you don’t mind me asking but you said that you had a loss of 0.4pts yesterday. By my reckoning you had one place at 10/1 BOG which would’ve given you a return of 1.5pts, so a loss of 1.5pts overall?

      Ken McKenzie 20/12/18 3:08 PM Reply


  • RT -14.25
    250 So Mininggold 9/2
    830 Ch Chookie Dunedin 4/1
    900 Ch Slipalongtrevaskis 10/3

    kevo19 20/12/18 1:44 AM Reply


  • Just thought i’d mention ………
    3.10 exeter FLINCK e/w ( i have backed @ 16.50 and 2.68 respectively)
    this horse has come up in 3 seperate saved systems on my hrb 🙂
    just saying ………………. 🙂

    gl/gb

    GEORGE B 20/12/18 8:36 AM Reply


    • the place element is on the 4tbp market on betfair 🙂

      p.p.s. 12.40 Exeter EVIDENCE DE THAIX came on no less than 5 of my seperate saved angles … but that’s a good reason its the favourite 🙂

      gl/gb
      still having fun 🙂

      GEORGE B 20/12/18 8:49 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    E 1.40 – Le Boizelo on 3rd run @ 8
    E 3.40 – Echo Watt on 3rd run @ 10
    C 8.30 – Buxted Dream on 4th run @ 12
    Festival
    C 8.30 – King Robert on 7th and 8th run @ 13/2
    GL

    Titus 20/12/18 9:05 AM Reply


  • Good morning gents, I’m off to Ascot tomorrow for a bit of pre Christmas fun!! Any helpful pointers would be really appreciated . Thankyou, Tom.

    Tom Murgatroyd 20/12/18 9:19 AM Reply


    • I won a couple of box tickets from Toals (see not all bookies are bad) and Josh promised to go through the card for me since he is far better at that than me so you should have something from him.

      Nick Mazur 20/12/18 9:54 AM Reply


      • Hi Nick
        Will take the bait Freebies are their forte,jolly good chaps that they are trying to distract away their agenda,must admit with your successful betting tips surprised that you have an open account with them,i struggle to place £5 ew on my golf bets with them and the horses is a no no.
        Cheers
        Colin

        cleafe 20/12/18 10:19 AM Reply


      • Is this one of these cases where bookmakers encourage big punters by showering hospitality on the them that I have been reading about?

        martin colwell 20/12/18 10:42 AM Reply


        • First of all Nick mentioned that he had won a couple of box tickets,you nor i know how he came by the tickets was it a company draw,pub draw or whatever.
          End of the day bookmakers give freebies to make themselves look good,would be interesting to know what freebies over the years the Minister for gambling as had for he has done nothing over the years to stop them.
          Still find it hard to understand with all that is coming out that vast amounts of 11 to 16 year olds are using bookmakers apps the gambling commission calls it a epidemic,alongside the slot users that people can support them.
          No doubt on Christmas day plenty of children will be running around with their clubs shirt on with a bookmakers logo advertising their company and no doubt many more under age children will find the bookmakers app and the bookmakers are doing nothing to stop this 18 and above is the age to go on these apps.
          Nothing for you to worry about Martin nobody wants a MILLWALL shirt HAHAHA
          Cheers
          Colin

          cleafe 20/12/18 11:39 AM Reply


          • The Millwall shirt is the ideal present for the young as we re sponsored by a roofing and scaffolding company and so no fear of becoming addicted to gambling. Also the change kit is bright orange and so no fear of your child being knocked over in light or dark.

            martin colwell 20/12/18 1:41 PM Reply


            • Thought you would come back with that for you mentioned your sponsor the other day.
              Derby have 23,000 plus season ticket holders every year so a large market for childrens shirt sales.

              cleafe 20/12/18 4:54 PM Reply


        • Well I am hardly a big punter so it wouldn’t have been that but particularly as they don’t price up before 8:30am and it is a losing account and apparently they had competition that wasn’t even aware of. Still given I know I will eventually take money off them and they will eventually restrict me may as well take advantage in the meantime.

          Nick Mazur 20/12/18 1:36 PM Reply


      • Cheers Nick, look forward to some red hot info from Josh!!

        Tom Murgatroyd 20/12/18 12:40 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Chelmsford
    5.30 Malaysian Boleh BOG 13/2
    8.30 Chookie Dunedin BOG 11/2 draw is a negative progressive 3yo and style of last run could prove good enough so worth taking a chance.
    9.00 Compton Prince BOG 6/1

    ELITE BETS
    Exeter
    1.40 Dunhallow Lad BOG 11/1
    Chelmsford
    8.00 Landue BOG 8/1
    8.00 Victoria Drummond BOG 11/2

    Colin

    cleafe 20/12/18 10:10 AM Reply


  • Hexham 2.30 1pt ew See Double You
    He’s only 15 but down in class from his last chase win over C & D and goes on the heavy.
    Hugh

    alpha2 20/12/18 10:21 AM Reply


  • Hi there,
    Still very new and struggling to find stuff i know i have seen before 🙁
    I can see the Big Race Tips and the Best of the Jumps stats above. I saw a summary of the results for the other main ones Josh recommends but now cant find them? Also cant get back to the Spread sheet that was produced, although found some of that a little confusing (i m sure its me not the person compiling it) Have tried the search box using words such as ‘results’ but to no avail! Ideally would like to see how they have gone month by month over 2018. Could someone pleas point me in the right direction. B t w this is to ensure that i allocate the Right Staking to the 7 parts i am going to follow, in % terms. Thanks – i ll fetch my Pre – christmas Dunce’s Cap! 🙂

    John Unitt 20/12/18 11:28 AM Reply


    • Hi John,

      They were on yesterday’s members post and the post the day before… you should be able to scroll through to yesterday’s members post, or any post, when clicking ‘home’ when logged in, you should see them all, latest post at the top..
      yesterday’s is here>>> https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/12/18/members-daily-post-19-12-18-upd1/

      The four strategies/+ spreadsheet for Dec is there.

      P/L to end of Nov is in the Key, above, first set of bullet points.

      Come end of Dec i’ll have the full spreadsheet from Danny, with totals from month to month etc. We only started recording them in that way since mid summer time, so they will build up as the months tick by. Sadly i’m not some big tipster house/website where I have any staff as such!
      I’ll get the updated big race spreadsheet for end of month also, and update the Key with links etc.

      In terms of staking, I wouldn’t be looking to over complicate and would stick to level stakes, mainly win only – EW for S2A, and as advised for any fellow members you may follow in the comments. Then you just need the win% historically to work out potential longest losing runs and adequate banks etc, as per the ‘Jumps Strategies: where should you start’ link in the key at the top/the table on the last page etc.

      Josh

      Josh 20/12/18 11:37 AM Reply


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