Members Daily Post: 19/12/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Ludlow

1.25 –

Baby King  (HcCh) 14/1 UP

Robinshill  (micro dist) 15/2 UP

2.35 – Sumkindofking (HcCh) H1 G1 5/1 UP

3.05 –

Honest Vic   (HcH, m class) I3 13/2 2nd 9/4 

Galactic Power   (m class and dist) H3 I3 4/1 UP

3.35 – Sadlermor   (1st NHF) 

 

Newbury

3.15 – New Millenium   (m dist and age) w2 14,30 H3 I3 G3 5/1  S4 UP

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.  w2won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +142)

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (27/103,50p, +37.9 , all 1 point win) 

2.35 Lud – Beau Du Brizais – 7/1 (bet365) 13/2 (BV/BetfS/UniB/BB) WON 13/2 > 5/1 

3.05 Lud – Burn Baby Byrne11/4 (gen)  5/2 (gen) UP 11/4 

as of 08.43, write ups to follow…

BDB – well his price just confused me here as it looks a shade big…he finally got it all together over fences LTO which was the first time he’d run over fences on rain softened ground. Connections have always felt he’s best on decent ground, and they still think that, but the evidence suggests he enjoyed himself here LTO. The ground may be similar, if not a bit softer, and he’s worth another go. It may be that ground slows everything down a bit which helps his jumping. Bar one fence, he generally jumped well. He can clout a fence which is a risk but that win could have done him plenty of good. He won fairly comfortably there, stays further than this which may be a positive today, and given the rain has come I wasn’t sure why SumKindOfKing should overturn the form. The yard continue in good form and he didn’t look to have an overly hard race, although when they return just 14 days later you never know. In any case, he looked a couple of points too big to my eyes.  If he puts in a clear round, he won’t be far away and is still open to progress as a chaser.

BBB – I think (hope!) she just bolts up again here and 11/4 could look rather generous. She couldn’t have done it any more easily LTO really, is progressive, has the best jockey on board in the race for me, and has guts. The softer ground is a niggle but her sires progeny stats in hurdles are much better on softer/heavy ground, and my hunch is it will be fine. Everything else in here has plenty of questions for me and I just thought she could make this look a big price. She won’t be far away here, if handling the ground. I can’t work out the support for the more exposed Galactic Power- 4s seems short, for one rated 19lb inferior to the selection – who hasn’t finished improving yet. He’s also usually held up out the back. 4s seemed short but maybe it will be clear soon enough why he’s being supported. Honest Viv may be a danger but has a few questions now and I can only assume something went wrong LTO given the 66 day break and how she ran. The jockey has ridden a few point winners but is inexperienced under rules- has placed twice. 13/2 or so just wasn’t generous enough. I think the selection will take all the beating here.  2/1 would be more like it, if not 6/4 to my eyes.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

1.25 L – Baby King 14/1 UP

3.35 L – Imperial Elysian 12/1 

Tom Lacey 

3.15 N – Sir Egbert 15/8  WON 15/8>6/4 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO Winning Trainers

1.25 L – Theflyingportrait 8/1 

1.40 N – Johanos (12/1< guide) 10/1 UP – decent run considering time off 

2.15 N – Pearl Royale (12/1< guide) 7/2UP

3.05 L – Burn Baby Byrne 5/2  UP

Trainer to Follow 

3.15 N – Sir Egbert 15/8  WON 15/8>6/4 

Jockeys/Chasers

3.15 N – Sir Egbert  15/8  WON 15/8>6/4 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

2.35 Lud – Beau Du Brizais 6/1  WON 13/2>5/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS update, for December so far…

Spreadsheet (thanks to member Danny) HERE>>>

(3rd tab prob most useful)

In Summary… for the ‘four jumps strategies’

Dec 1st -16th

S1 : 1/12,2p = -1 , -2.6 BFSP

S2A: 

  • 1 point win : 2/17,5p, +19, +7.2 BFSP
  • 1 point EW: 2/17,5p, +31
  • 1/2 point EW: 2/17,5p, +15.5

S3A# : 3/6,3p = +6.7

w1: 6/22, 12p, +16.75

Total, (backing all as if each strategy separate, inc multi quals) : 12/57,22p , +41.45, +28.05 BFSP (S1/S2A BFSP win only)

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • In the 11.40 Julia Fielden’s Maazel has a very good profit figure with the older ones combined with Shirley Birkett,backed this lto when it got badly hampered and just ran out of turf to get up but was 16’s that day,not a working mans price at 9/2 unless it drifts.
    The one i like at the prices is Rich Again 6.15 Newcastle at 11-12/1.Ticks a lot of boxes,an older Bethell horse running over 7f,jockey booked has good record for trainer,his wins at course have been at 5f but has winning form at 7f,now he has had a break and might need the run,has a good win rate for a hold up horse but it needs to drop right,all in all though the price dictates its worth a go.
    Callum Rodriguez rarely goes home from here without a win,finding it might be more tricky

    gearoid180468 18/12/18 7:00 PM Reply


  • Archie Watson – Lingfield, Class 1 to 5, up to 12 furlongs:

    1.15 Times Past 9/2, 2 points win.
    3.25 Attain, 10/1, 1 point each way.

    Venetia Williams has found some form. At a price she has:

    12.20 Ludlow, Eceparti, 40/1.
    2.35 Ludlow, Tenor Nivernais, 12/1.

    Good luck Martin

    martin colwell 18/12/18 8:13 PM Reply


  • Holly Bush Henry Ludlow 14:35 1pt e/w 10/1
    Just Your Type Newbury 13:40 1pt e/w 10/1
    Cuppacoco Newcastle 19:15 1pt e/w 13/2

    Nick Mazur 18/12/18 8:16 PM Reply


  • today’s selections.
    Newbury 3-15. Vocaliser 6-1 1/2 pt ew , if 8 stay in
    Ludlow 1-25. Bigmatre 8-1 1/2 pt ew
    ludlow. 2-35. Holly Bush Henry 8-1 1/2 pt ew

    martin whittle 19/12/18 12:21 AM Reply


  • RT -12.25
    545 Nc Tessa Rossa 9/2 & Kilbaha Lady 14/1

    kevo19 19/12/18 2:04 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    N 1.05 – Bob Maxwell on 6th run @ 150
    L 11.40 – Maazel on 3rd run @ 4
    L 2.55 – Sir Pass I Am on 2nd run @ 12
    N 7.15 – Cuppacoco on 3rd run @ 6
    D 8.00 – Secret Wizard on 3rd run @ 11/2
    3m+
    L 2.35 – Holly Bush Henry on 5th run @ 8
    ………..Fox Appeal on 3rd run @ 15/2
    N 1.40 – Vieux Lille on 4th run @ 12
    GL

    Titus 19/12/18 8:21 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    1.25 Ludlow Capeland BOG 9/4

    ELITE BETS

    5.40 Newcastle Merweb BOG 3/1

    cleafe 19/12/18 10:01 AM Reply


    • Colin, I put a ps on our conversation of yesterday.
      Hugh

      alpha2 19/12/18 12:27 PM Reply


      • Hugh
        Thanks otherwise would have missed it,not surprised car industry was ruined by constant strikes and ridiculous wage demands.
        Thankfully my son had confirmation yesterday of his first job from the San Fransisco base technology company known as Cisco and he will start end of August time after leaving Uni with his computer degree,thankfully he will be able to work anywhere in the world if the worst comes to the worst!!!
        Starting salary £38,000 plus possible 8% bonus,fantasy world or what,mind you he has worked very hard to achieve this and he had a 12 month placement with Pepsi last year and they kept him on for another 8 weeks so he only had 2 weeks holiday before going back to Uni,Proud dad you bet.
        Cheers
        Colin

        cleafe 19/12/18 1:54 PM Reply


    • Hi Colin, I am new on here but I remember you from Sportsworld, we did have a chat then.
      However, moving on, what is the Main difference between Colin’s Bets and ELITE BETS. Thanks

      colin smalley 19/12/18 7:41 PM Reply


      • Hi Colin
        Yes what a blast from the past hope that you are well was it not Surewin before Neil sold it,have not spoken to Neil for about 6 months but i still receive Sportworld emails,must give him a call for his dad Roy must be 84ish,grand old boy.
        COLINS BETS
        are my own bets which i back everyone that is put up so when the poor run hits i feel the pain.
        ELITE BETS
        are a method that i used many years ago but the bets took a long time to find so let it go,however over the past couple of years started keeping a eye on it and it still throws up 20/1 and 40/1 winners over the past 2 years and decided to back them again in October making 21.75 points profit at bookmakers SP from 65 bets Nov slightly down and Dec is down but like buses two 20/1 winners will come along and will be back in the black.
        Bank is so important and recommend two 100 points banks for confidence.
        Cheers
        Colin

        cleafe 19/12/18 8:05 PM Reply


        • Hi Colin, Thanks for your reply.
          I’m sorry to have to tell you that Roy died a couple of weeks ago, funeral last week, he was 89 I believe, so Neil might appreciate a call.

          colin smalley 19/12/18 8:39 PM Reply


  • Hi josh, or others.

    I just wanted to clarify whether or not the following would, if qualifying on price, be an S1 – and therefore one i would have done in the Josh Quartet i am doing? (plus Nick’s Colins and Big race Tips.
    3.15 – New Millenium (m dist and age) w2 14,30 H3 I3 G3 5/1 S4S1+S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)

    Had to go out early for a Car repair this morning so only just got back at 1 am and spotted it. Realise its academic as price is down to 7.4, BUT had it qualified on price i’m just wondering if it was over 11 whether i should have included it – and indeed any others with the key shown as this one? Thanks (apols if i have missed the b…obvious but im still only 9 days into the very interesting Site membership. 🙂 Thanks

    John Unitt 19/12/18 11:23 AM Reply


    • Woops, 11 am 🙂

      John Unitt 19/12/18 11:24 AM Reply


      • Hi John, if it’s in section 1, has a red G1 or G3 and is 10/1 or bigger when I enter prices on morning, then it’s an S1 and you’d have seen a black Bold S1 next to New Milleniums name. AS he was under 10/1 on general morning odds, he got the italics S1 note, as above (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)… so he would then ONLY qualify if his BFSP is 11.00+… as per the 10-15 minute welcome video, I show you in that how you can set a min price of 11.00 in BFSP at a time that suits you, and the bet will only be matched if he’s sent off with a BFSP 11.00+. If he is sent off at that price or bigger, he becomes an S1 and is included in results as such.
        does that make sense? Just look for the bold black S1 in the morning if you’re unsure, or the s1 note/instructions added, as per above with that example.
        Does that make sense? I’m not sure I can explain it any easier.
        If say you knew you were out for the day from 7am or whatever, you could have looked then using oddschecker and if generally 10s+ you could have placed the bet, or if not then set the 11.00+ BFSP as above… I record/base results on the prices I add etc at the same every day, to ensure consistency etc across all strategies. But you can bet when you please…and it all evens out, sometimes you may back an S1 winner by betting at a time that suits, you that wouldn’t have qualified officially when I updated prices etc and vice versa. Obviously keep your own results for strategies etc so you can compare to my official results but such an approach all evens out over time. Or you just wait until after 8am or so on the day when I update section 1.

        Josh 19/12/18 11:52 AM Reply


        • Thanks Josh. Yes understood – in all honesty i should have re-visited the Video/Intro etc before querying. I m comfortable with all that and will be ok going forwards,
          regards, John

          John Unitt 19/12/18 12:05 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Capeland won 9/4 BOG to 11/8 no rule 4,needed that.

    Colin

    cleafe 19/12/18 2:04 PM Reply


  • Well done josh .. price too big indeed for bdb !! 🙂
    nicely read !

    gl/gb

    GEORGE B 19/12/18 2:44 PM Reply


    • thanks George, a good tussle with Nick’s, he’ll come on top next time haha. I’ve finally hit some form on the daily front. Now to transfer it to the ‘big’ weekend races and to find some juicy priced winners.

      Josh 19/12/18 2:48 PM Reply


  • Always nice to have one of Josh’d and one of Nick’s battling a finish out having backed both! Though that loose horse was a worry.

    I see a couple of smaller yards have paid for Christmas in the last few races!

    Max H 19/12/18 3:51 PM Reply


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