Members Daily Post: 18/12/18 (complete)

‘best of stats quals’ x2, Section 1 (complete) , test zone, strategy results update

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Catterick

12.10 – Danceintothelight   (micro’s class,/dist/class move) I3 7/2 

1.40 – Rainy City  (m age)   ES+ H3 6/1 S3A 

2.40 – Middlebrow  (HcCh, m age)  w1 ES+ H1 I1 11/4 S3A# 

 

Fakenham

1.20 –

Master of Finance  (all Hc’s)  ES+ 6/1 S3A

Todd  (HcH) H3 I3 G1 15/8 S4 

2.20 –

The Very Thing  (HcH) (added info: handicap debut) H1 G3 5/6 

Glorvina  (all Hc’s) 6/1 

2.50 – So Sorry Sarah  (nov HcCh) 5/2 

 

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KEY

Welcome INFO: (please read/watch esp if new)

  • Welcome Email: HERE>>>
  • Jumps Strategies: Where should you start: HERE>>>
  • Video 1: Section 1 explained/the 4 Jumps Strategies HERE>>>
  • Video 2: Longer welcome video HERE>>>
  •  Welcome Post, with more, inc all the above, HERE>>>

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.  w2won two starts ago

The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone//Big Meetings Notes etc) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +142)

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (25/99,48p, +27.9 , all 1 point win) 

1.10 Catt – Eureu Du Boulay – 7/1 (gen) (11/2 gen as of 09.10, that will be declared price unless he drifts, and of course he needs to win!)

2.20 Fake – Glorvina – 13/2 (gen)

as of 08.26, write ups…

Eureu Du Boulay… I think I put this one up LTO in the test and I really should try and do a better job of tracking them, as always! Especially the unexposed ones. Hobson usually gets a win out of these unexposed chasers between their 2nd and 5th run in handicaps and with any luck this one may improve those stats. His run over hurdles at Uttoxeter four runs back indicated he had ability, given he chased home Notnow Seamus who’d won his last start, and would go on to win a few more, reaching a rating of 140 (albeit one achieved in ‘the summer’) He should have wins off this mark of 111, 6lb lower than when he started chasing two runs back. He does three things different here which could make the difference- he drops in class (130 horses were in the places at Southwell), he steps up in trip (he has looked outpaced over 16f/breeding+relatives gives hope he’ll improve for it) and Danny Cook rides (he’s ridden a chase winner here for Hobson, and is quite the upgrade on young Jamie B who at times sh*ts himself presenting a horse at a fence, and then the horse sh*ts himself also! Well to my eyes that’s what it looks like anyway). In fairness the horse has jumped well enough on his two chase runs to date and hopefully the slower pace here may help- and Danny will ask plenty from his mount. He may even try and make all, as his is want. The oppo have plenty to prove – Newland’s goes over fences first time and after 469 days off- I can take him on at 11/4 – he is rated 122 and if he runs up to that/improves, I may be in trouble. Skelton’s fell LTO early on, and 3s is always short for a LTO faller, esp one that hasn’t won over fences yet- you don’t know how  confidence may be affected and he still has plenty to prove in this sphere – as does mine, but he’s more than twice the price. The England horse just doesn’t like winning, doesn’t find much for pressure and is worth taking on. He is consistent though, and the rest may fall in a hole and he’ll be the last one galloping after the last- he’s in trouble if he has to battle against anything, at 5/2 I can take on. I can leave the other two who have enough questions also. 13/2 felt a shade too big here, for one who’s shown some ability and where the class drop /distance move/jockey may have a positive impact. I’ll pay to find out in an open race on paper. (well, if the Newland horse isn’t fit and doesn’t jump well!!)

Glorvina… her price is just insulting here for the only horse in the race to have won over hurdles and one of the few to have won at all in her career. In August 2017 at Cartmel she hacked up in good to soft over 17f. Although it was 4 runners, she beat horses that would go on to be rated 125+ and 113+. She then raced in a class 2 at Market Rasen. She faded late there into 7th but the horse just in front of her would be rated 120 within 3 starts after that. That was her last run on ground with good in the going description. She’d run with credit NTO at Ffos Las in a 3 runner race, the Moore horse that beat her that day is now rated 129. She’d spend her next three runs getting bogged down in soft/heavy and had been quite busy for a three year old at that point. She returned, bigger, stronger, (well i’ll assume she’s grown/strengthened!) at Market Rasen 26 days ago. I don’t think she stays 21f and she probably needed the run if her SP is anything to go by – she ran well until 2 out there, nearly hitting the front, three clear, before fading. She should be spot on here and runs at a track the trainer likes to target – trainer/jockey are 4/13,6p here. In a race lacking pace on paper, I suspect Harry will try and dictate.  It also looks a poor race. The Fav has lost twice in three runs, once at 8/13, and at 11/8 LTO- he’s clearly been fancied to run well in non handicaps and hasn’t been a handicap plot job. Odds on is short for a horse yet to win and he runs as if he wants further- i’m not sure the tight 7f circuit here will suit, but clearly he’s unexposed and could now show more. You have to take that sort on though. The rest have even more questions and i’m more than happy to leave. I’m sure the selection should be better than this mark in time, and her ‘form story’ makes sense, especially all the runs since her win. She could have a good year ahead at her level, we shall see. In any case, 13/2 was just silly for me, 2-3 points too big on what these have all achieved to date.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide)

1.40 C- Rainy City 6/1

2.40 C – Middlebrow 11/4

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

12.40 C – Fanzio 9/1

1.10 C – Eureu Du Boulay 9/1

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.50 F – Mr Mulliner  25/1

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Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow

12.40 C – Valkenburg 8/1

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

1.50 F – Militarian 7/2

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS update, for December so far…

Spreadsheet (thanks to member Danny) HERE>>>

(3rd tab prob most useful)

In Summary… for the ‘four jumps strategies’

Dec 1st -16th

S1 : 1/12,2p = -1 , -2.6 BFSP

S2A: 

  • 1 point win : 2/17,5p, +19, +7.2 BFSP
  • 1 point EW: 2/17,5p, +31
  • 1/2 point EW: 2/17,5p, +15.5

S3A# : 3/6,3p = +6.7

w1: 6/22, 12p, +16.75

Total, (backing all as if each strategy separate,inc multi quals) : 12/57,22p , +41.45, +28.05 BFSP (S1/S2A BFSP win only)

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

    1. Thanks guys. We took the same race with Buckle Street last year as well and I’m do love getting the same race right over and over.

  1. Karl Burke at Southwell

    11.55 Mametz Wood 4/1
    12.15 Wind Storm 2/1
    1.30 Angel Palanas 5/2

    All 2 points win plus 1 point treble.

  2. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 1.10 – Eureu de Boulay on 5th and 6th run @ 9
    C 1.40 – Sevenballs of Fire on 2nd run @ 22
    F 1.50 – Forth Bridge on 2nd run @ 9/4
    S 11.55 – Break the Silence on 4th run @ 8
    S 1.30 – Kupa River on 4th and 7th run @ 12
    GL

    1. w/e 16/12 figs

      Daily runners = 16
      Winners = 1 @ bog 7/2, @ sp 7/2
      p/l @ bog – 11.5
      p/l @ sp – 11.5
      There were 3 / 2 plcs @ bog 16, 33, 16 @ sp 16, 20

      Festival runners = 10
      Winners = 2 @ bog 15/2, 6, @ sp 4, 11/2
      p/l @ bog + 5.5
      p/l @ sp + 1.5
      There were 1 / 1 plcs @ bog 12, @ sp 12

      3m+ runners = 7
      Winners = @ bog , @ sp
      p/l @ bog – 7
      p/l @ sp – 7
      there were 1 / 1 plcs @ bog 14, @ sp 14,

      PLACES @ 10’s+ DO NOT INCLUDE WINS

  3. COLINS BETS
    Southwell
    11.55 Mametz Wood BOG 10/3
    11.55 Breaking The Silence BOG 7/1
    1.30 Angel Palanas BOG 11/4
    2.00 Tan BOG 9/4

    ELITE BETS

    1.20 Fakenham Little Millie BOG 10/3

  4. Well a quite day reading the Daily Mail page 14/15,brazen gambling firms ‘pay £1 million hush money to addicts’ if you have a chance read the article.
    Comments page 16
    Betting firms sink to new depths,in one shameful case ladbrokes allegedly paid £1 million in hush money to the victims of a high roller who stole to fund his habit.
    By forcing them to sign controversial non-disclosure agreements,the betting firms conceal the dubious deals from the Gambling Commission.
    Why the cover up?Because the regulator can punish companies who break strict rules by profiting from customers who place huge wagers they cannot afford.
    These are a few extracts from the Daily Mail if you have a chance read the full articles please do.
    Still shocked how people can support these disgusting firms for they use every underhand scam to destroy lives and once again how do BHA allow them to sponsor trainers god knows.
    Watched Derby v Forest last night and when Frank Lampard was being interviewed the background had sadly our sponsors logo 32 Red along with Skybet and Coral logos totally disgusting for they covered the TV screen.
    Thankfully people with power are now looking into these scum bags and certainly not before time.
    Owner with green and gold silks just had £50,000 on,bloody hell i can not get a Fiver on and am not an owner or in the know and how many TV Presenters and Racing Journalist are restricted or have had their accounts closed,answers on a postage stamp!!!

    1. You’re far too cynical Colin and rather angry today haha. Our sport would be a bit buggered without bookies as would many in terms of sponsorship. It’s about balance as it always is and some corporate social responsibility but you could say that about any big corporate in any sector. They will sadly always try and cut corners if they can.
      They clearly haven’t done a very good job there if it’s come out and clearly such behaviour is abhorrent especially in those cases of continually accepting bets from known problem gamblers and they should be punished. There is a certain amount of responsibility on the individual as well albeit I suspect if money wasn’t being gambled it would be on something else. In the wider scheme of things we are still talking about a minority. Most are just not very good gamblers which is separate from the pool of problem addicts. Clearly much more needs to be done . I’m not in the camp that hates bookies. And life is about choice. I don’t really want the government telling me what I can and can’t legally spend my money on.
      Theres clearly major funding problems for our sport which is a mess and too reliant on bookie sponsorship and media rights etc. What the solution is to that who knows.

      JP..well there’s clearly a benefit for bookies knowing when JP really fancies one and such are the markets I suspect they lay off most of the liability. Those relationships will have existed since the sport began. It is what it is I think. Kevin Blake had an account t with Ladbrokes where they’d let him place his 1000 euro win bets and used that info to make cards and reduce odds etc. He was open about that in his book. Most trainers and TV people won’t be very good gamblers! Maybe I’m just far too placid with things I can’t control! But I’m not minded to batter the hand that feeds us out with the various points above. The restriction issue is another debate all together. Theres now a market developing in minimum guarantees and we shall see how that goes.

      1. Josh
        you must take off your rose tinted glasses with a statement that ‘our sport would be a bit buggered without bookies’
        First of all the Sport would be far richer without them for the money from the Tote only would go straight back into racing including the grass root Trainers who many through the bookmakers lack of investment into racing and low prize money many sadly go bankrupt every year.
        Tote bought by Betfred against the wishes of the racing world and have destroyed the Tote never hear anything about it now,wonder why they cannot make inflated profits for Betfred for the Tote profits go straight back to the racing industry,no good for Betfred.
        Other countries through their equivalent to the Tote have free entry to the Racecourses and with France a £10,000 pound race the same grade will only pay approx £2,000 in Britain,so the Bet 365 CEO can pay herself £269 million salary,would rather see that money going into racing and especially some to the injured Jockey’s who provide our entertainment and sadly they have to go cap in hand begging to the race going public to survive with their injuries.
        Not many years ago a horse won 10 races in one year on the AW and the prize money did not even pay the trainers fee’s for the year.
        ANGRY yes i am that the sport and animal the horse that i love and i have competed in cross country and show jumping for the RAF and ridden on the gallops in my younger days,just had a christmas card from my mate of 35 years Adrian who has 30 pitches over the country who in the mid 90s was forced by Ladbrokes to sell his 3 shops,Mafia springs to mind.
        In my younger days had the view we could never lose the bookmaker however over the years that certainly changed.
        Next time you are down at Amy Murphy’s stable start a discussion over the state of racing and would it be better without bookmakers and run by the Tote would be surprised if they support the bookmakers!!!
        Not having a go at you Josh this has always been my passion and have had a fortunate life being involved with the horses,friend over 30 years Trainer Dai Williams and in the late 80’s early 90’s he had 80 plus horses and the ridding the horse also seen the bookmaking side through Adrian often layed his bets over the years at different courses running around like a blue arsed fly to get the price he wanted.
        Angry you bet but now happy that the greedy accountants/bookmakers may have finally shot themselves in the foot and they certainly have a lot to answer too.
        Racing would be in a far better state financially with the Tote in control without Betfred.
        Cheers
        Colin

        1. I disagree with most of that but I’m not going to write war and peace it’s a discussion more suitable for over a pint as you’ve covered loads of different issues.

          1. I agree Josh however do one thing for me take a copy of my report and take it to the stables and get the feel of the stable staff and owners for everything that i have put down is fact not fiction and through a Tote based betting system the staff should receive better wages and at the moment there is a shortage of stable staff.
            Cheers
            Colin

          2. I am able to form my own opinions Colin and I’m quite clued up on various things. I’m quite aware how pitiful prize money is for owners and how expensive it is at the lower level! It’s a difference of opinion and we have come to different conclusions on our understanding. That is all. Despising bookies on one hand is a separate argument/discussion
            from the fact there should be a stronger Tote. There’s room for both. The sport needs more money finding its way to all those involved and the rather complex debate is about how that’s solved. France is having to close racecourses and reduce fixtures etc so they have their own problems. I don’t recall some glory days of the tote when the sport was awash with cash and the sport is a different beast to what it was years ago. We need to be trying to learn from all the other racing jurisdictions who seem to do it better. Solely Tote betting may well be the answer. A focus on syndicates which the Aussies appear to have nailed wouldn’t go amiss either. But it’s all linked to prize money no doubt. These are complex problems that require complex solutions. Obviously

    2. I agree in part with you Colin. The Daily Mail piece is interesting and it gets to the Gambling Commission, they will go in and investigate these and pull the firms up where necessary.

      There’s 2 things.
      1) i’d like to see a stronger Tote or similar organisation which offers really good pools, advertises the fact you can win a decent amount for a small stake with no restrictions.

      2) The betting industry employs many thousands of people across the country so there is a need for them. A minimum lay to lose policy on horses however could be implemented for all customers and its a condition of your licence to do so. An exception I suppose would be an obvious Arber. I don’t know what you bet to Colin, but a minimum bet to win £200 per race should not be difficult to implement. If necessary remove the overnight pricing of racing if needed on low-level racing.

      3) I agree about the blanket advertising of bookmaking on sport. Even things like Leeds United teamsheets are brought you by Coral. It’s not really needed and should be restricted.

      1. Yea. Agree with all that. Well..certainly agree with the whistle to whistle ban on advertising. And a better Tote would give more choice and of course put more back in etc.

      2. Sadly the Tote will never work again whilst a bookmaker Betfred own it and again it is true the racing industry did not want them in control,do you see any adverts for the Tote never seems to get a mention.
        If i recall the horse industry used to be the 5th largest employer in the country,not sure if this is still the case,but bookmakers are closing shops and pushing people towards computer betting so cutting down on staff and overheads,more profit for the shareholders.
        On the £200 minimum to lay for me by the time they will accept your bet the value and prices will have long gone you will virtually be backing SP.
        Started putting up BOG in June on Colins bets
        Jun/Nov bookmakers SP – 31.07 BOG + 98.12
        This example shows that you need to beat the price and would imagine once you have been restricted then they will not accept your bet till 11.00 after the prices have gone,the accountants bookmakers will give you nothing.
        For the days of the Independent bookmakers when we had competition on prices.
        Cheers
        Colin

  5. If only it were only bookmakers. When you see the obscene bonuses the Directors of Persimmon and Berkeley Homes take, it is clear that something is amiss. Not just in housing and bookmaking but in almost all areas of corporate endeavour where the profit motive has become so out of proportion with a fair and equable share for all.

    To use Berkeley Homes as an example, had the two senior directors halved their bonus they would have been able to charge every new home owner for which they built a house in 2017 £10,000 less and still had more than £10m each. This money was not paid out to shareholders as dividends it was kept by two greedy individuals.

    The same appalling greed is apparent in the bookmakers pleading that they needed extra months in order to prepare for the stake reduction on FOBTs. It took a truly principled cabinet member to shoot that fox.

    The problem lies in a break down of conscience in society and the lobby culture that has spread from the US and infested parliament. George Osborne’s first time buyer policy was now doubt lobbied for by the house builders, inflated property prices and will in time ruin so many new home owners who have overpaid for substandard properties when interest rates go up.

    I am about as far from a socialist as it is possible to be and saw first hand the excesses of the unions in both the print and car industries in the 70s but to say it has swung too far the other way does not even scratch the surface.

    Wish I knew the answer but certain it is not Corbyn!

    Sorry to tack this on to the horse-racing page Josh… but at least racing is over for the day.
    Hugh

  6. Hugh
    Agree our car industry was ruined in the 70s by what you said,those days when traveling past Longbridge south of Birmingham and would be 100,000 brand new British cars waiting to be transported to the dealers,what an industry we had then.
    Not many business are targeting children like bookmakers are doing with their logos on shirts and 11to 16 year olds are on their apps proven by gamblers aware.
    Smoking adverts were banned and sponsorship on F1 was banned for me bookmaker advert should go the same way the sooner the better,or they should only be allowed to advertise the truth
    MUGS and LOSERS only accepted.
    Colin

    1. Colin, I worked a summer as a temporary assistant engine storeman at Jensen in the Interceptor workshop around 1972. We were producing 8 a week. The blocks came from Chrysler and the engine stores held the bolt on bits. Once we had set up the 8 trolleys of bolt ons on a Monday morning the engine stores were there to replace any faulty components for the other 4.5 days. I don’t recall a single occasion when our services were needed! And I was the assistant on full union rates!
      Hugh

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