Members Daily Post: 17/12/18 (complete)

test tips x4, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Ffos Las

1.45 – Gone Platinum (nov HcCh) G3 12/1 S1 S2 UP

2.50 –

The Gipper (HcH)  w1 H3 I3 11/8  WON 11/8>11/10 

Radical Archie (HcH,micro class move)  w2 w1 ES+ H1 G1 10/3 S3A# 2nd 3/1 

 

Plumpton

2.00 – Dylanseoghan   (all Hc’s)  w2 I3 7/1 UP

2.35 –

Shimba Hills   (all Hc’s) 11/1 S2 UP

Seaweed   (HcH, m’s TJC/dist/age/runs)  ES+ H1 I3 4/1 S3A# WON 4/1>5/2 

3.05 –

Finnegans Garden   (all Hc’s) H3 I3 9/2 3rd 5/1 

Brother Bennett   (all Hc’s) 16/1 S2A UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago 

Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>> Welcome Email HERE>>>

Updated: The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

More Welcome Info  HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +142)

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (25/99,48p, +27.9 , all 1 point win) 

2.00 P – Dylanseoghan – 15/2 (gen) UP

2.35 P – Seaweed – 9/2 (gen) WON 9/2>5/2 

2.50 FL – Radical Archie – 7/2 (bet365/WH) 10/3 (gen) 2nd (didn’t have the class to get away from them sadly, 19f/20f clearly his trip on that evidence, certainly at a higher level) 

3.05 P – Finnegans Garden – 5/1 (bet365/PP) 9/2 (gen) 3rd, 5/1, well stuffed in the end, having looked very promising at the bottom of the hill! Two much better handicapped rivals possibly, damn.

that’s it as of 08.40, write ups incoming…

Dylanseoghan… as always I thought the price looked a bit generous and he should be a few points shorter to my eyes. (hopefully not my ‘Sunday’ eyes!) He’s still open to progress as a stayer, I think the ground will be fine, and he’s a superb jumper at is best. He ran well to a point on his seasonal reappearance and i expect he will come on for it, and interesting that he now rocks up at a target track for the trainer- she’s 6/23,9p in handicap chases here, 5/21,8p all runners in the last year. This is the horse’s first visit and this track doesn’t suit every horse, so that is a question, but built into his price for me. In general his chase form has worked out well and some of it suggests he could have a bit of room in his mark still, and may go on to a higher mark in time. I wanted to take the Favourite on – mainly as his jumping can be sketchy, he may get pressured on the front end, and i’m not sure he beat very much at all when last seen. The 9lb probably wouldn’t have stopped him there but on paper this feels a stronger race, albeit fewer runners. I could have him wrong. He is open to improvement and maybe he will keep progressing. He will have to battle for this one today I think. The rest have questions. Moore’s has ability but may need the run – well, if he doesn’t, then we could all be in trouble and Moore does ok here with chasers after 60+ days off, and he’s being nibbled at. I can leave him at his odds, but he does have the best level of form in this, and by quite some way. He’s needed/come on from, his two seasonal reappearances to date.

Seaweed… maybe it will be clear after the race why the Skelton horse is so short, but that’s a silly price on what we know. He’s probably been working down the gallops next to much higher rated horses and on his flat mark should prove himself to be well handicapped at some point, but he’s 3, not form on soft as yet, had a wind op, hasn’t done a great deal, and has plenty of questions to answer. He seems short to my eyes and worth taking on. Seaweed…well the jockey change lured me in, given Tom rides him for the first time and trainer/jockey are 6/15,10p at Plumton over 16f in handicaps, 4/8 class 5. I also thought TC may switch up the tactics and be more aggressive, either trying to make all or hitting the front before they turn for home. This is only his 3rd run for Gordon and he runs as if he has a moderate C5 handicap in him. The question is why should he beat Legend of France, when he was stuffed by her LTO-  well it is her second run back after a long break, and it may come too soon. That’s not impossible. She also has an extra stone in actual weight on her back, and didn’t look the biggest to my eyes, although always tricky on video replays. That could stop her here, and of course there is a 9lb swing on the ratings, although no claim on mine today. She may confirm the form but both of them were eased down LTO, and Seaweed made a bad enough error two out which seemed to knock the stuffing out of him, having loomed up menacingly. No doubt there may be a lurker somewhere else but I was happy to leave the rest. Snowden’s is unexposed but the ground is an unknown.

Radical Archie – I don’t like second guessing jockey bookings too much, certainly with two horses so evidently in form, and i’m not sure they are informative in this example, but time will tell. This one is just open to more progress and I like the fact, in this ground, that he’s proven over further- which is a question for his two market rivals. I also thought he may try and make all, albeit if he anchors him way behind his stablemate, we may know who they’d prefer to win! He won a big field handicap LTO in gritty fashion and there’s a chance he comes on for the run also. The front three were well clear there. He does step up in class but is open to more progress and looks a big galloper of a horse who looks to have taken time to grow into his frame. I thought he may be overpriced here. It is a competitive little heat but his stable mate did have a tough enough race 7 days ago, on his seasonal return – it’s not impossible he runs flat today. The Symonds horse is open to progress this season and ran OK when last seen, but i’d hope the selection may see this out better. If he can build up a lead approaching the final flight i’m not sure the others will get past him.

Finnegan’s Garden… Noel jumps back on here for the only horse in the race with winning form in all conditions… groing/ class/ track /distance. He’s a sound jumper and a trier who could still have some room in this mark. His win here 3 starts back was comfortable enough come the line and a shade cosy. He ran well on his return two starts back giving a stone to his progressive rival and he probably needed the run also – it was solid enough. He returned 12 days later at Uttoxeter in a deeper C4, on ground probably too quick, and ran a bit flat. That run could have come too soon, but in any case he likes it soft and in such ground doesn’t really know how to run a bad race. He drops in class here and has 22 days since his last run, and he likes it around here. On known chase form I thought he was the one to beat. Chivers could be anything but his price reflects that and it’s only his second chase start, with stamina to prove. He is an interesting one. I had questions over most of the others, in the context of their prices, and was happy to go with the selection.

Fingers crossed there’s one winner in that lot to pay for the rest, and I can dream of two! Best of luck.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

NHF Heavy 

3.50 FL – Moonlight Camp 9/2

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

LTO winning hurdlers

2.50 FL – The Gipper 11/8

LTO Winning Triners

1.45 FL- Cougars Gold (8/1<) 15/8

1.45 FL – Fille Des Champs 9/1

2.50 FL – Radical Archie 10/3 / The Gipper 11/8

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

2.00 P – The Tin Miner 7/4

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

30 Responses

  1. Mention was made of a past micro angle for NHF Hvy t’other day and there’s a Mulholland runner tomorrow, F 3.50 Moonlight Camp – any odds.
    I just checked my p/l for last season….+31.9
    Mike

  2. back to nature for today’s selections, a field a garden and some hills 🙂
    Ffos Las.
    12-40. Flanagans Field 10-1 1/2 pt ew
    Plumpton.
    2-35. Shimba Hills 12-1 1/2 pt ew
    3-05. Finnegan’s Garden 7-1 1/2 pt ew

    in the 2-35 it was a toss up between selection and Generous Jack 5-1, might have a small win saver but won’t be included in results.

  3. 2 general Q s if i may. I only paid up for first time 1 week ago today and thoroughly enjoying it. These Q s are open to anyone to comment on please, obviously including Josh of course;
    1. I have decided, well at least for the first couple of month, and then maybe an odd tweak to follow these and allocate a sensible Bank to each. (to start with the Banks will be equal in size BUT of course the % stake on each will be different depending on the typical Strike Rates and allowing at least Double the Bank size generally considered ‘safe’ )
    W1
    S1
    S2A
    S3A #
    Big Race tips, and …
    Nick’s advices
    Colin’s AW winter (maybe longer)

    I know that’s 7 whereas Nick suggested 4, but i am comfortable with it, like a portfolio approach and no longer go out to work – although i earn from home, so time not a problem.
    SO Q1 – anyone think that i am ‘missing something’ here or worst still missing out ? 🙂

    Q2. Could anyone recommend a good Stats site (preferably free but i would consider a sensible fee) which would enable me to interrogate ‘in-depth’ performances of Favourites. What i need is to be able to break down a set of criteria for specific Race Types (by distances) and the percentage of Favourites winning a certain Type over current and 2 previous seasons! Although i m only interested in Non-Handicaps – both Codes but not AW) and I know i can do it by checking all past result details in the RP (groan… 🙁 ) i would love to know if there is a short – cut. B t w – this is all to try and develop a methodology that i was ‘let in on’ by a guy with a lifetime of experience who had perfected a way of ‘tracking favourites’ in Race types and distances that had had a high % of previous winning favourites. I wont say what his Win and Place % were but they were Very high. T b h i’m not sure i want to spend the time it would take (you also have to monitor the qualifying races) in last 15 mins before the off, but since this guy no longer keeps his own Data Base and seemingly barely bets anymore i am just delving at present! Thanks. Hope we all have a cracking Monday, John

        1. Yep, second that John, Horseracebase is fantastic value for money and the guy that runs it is superb, you really should subscribe if research is your thing.

    1. Welcome John
      I can’t fault your starting portfolio and more importantly the separate banks (an absolute must for any newbies). One concern I have is the image of you swearing and kicking the dog/cat when a S2 comes in that is not ‘G’ rated, there will be many and some will be BIG odds. Better to double the proposed S1 bank and do S2 instead in my opinion.
      Others on here are far more familiar with stats retrieval than I am so I’ll leave that pont alone.
      Mike

      1. On re-reading my reply I’ll add that this is my opinion based on your seemingly fluid finances. I would NOT opt for S2 as a starting point as there will be loooong losing runs. Thought I’d better clear that up for for other readers.

        1. I think he’s got the biggies covered with S1 + S2A ( all section 1 16/1-25/1 morning odds) which will from time to time include the odd S1, but both of those capture all the decent priced ones. S2 (what was 10/1-25/1 – in effect now all those 10/1-15/1 – as S2A covers the rest, and in all time posting only been 1 winner I think with morning odds bigger than 25s!) isn’t advised, all the profits etc are in the 16/1-25/1 range, and that’s been clear since start of year/following the deeper research into S2s. They had a good 2016, not great this year.

          1. Oh, as I no longer do S1 and never done S2a I didn’t realise there was a downturn this year for S2 as my a/c has been steadily increasing. Sorry to confuse the issue.
            Mike

    2. John ref Colins bets are for all three codes only started putting AW bets up Sep 2017 to prove that you can win on the AW,if you wish to back AW only that is your choice but i will not Separate the three codes again and my records will show this.
      Colin.

      1. Thanks Colin, yes i realised when you posted that i had seen that before in one of your previous posts, and so was a ‘memory lapse’ this morning by me. Seems sensible for me to follow all of them. Apologies if i have got confused but when you previously added a note to an earlier post (where December had been omitted) can i just clarify if the +190.99 for Sept to March referred to just AW, or for all selections? Thanks again, all the best John

      2. Hi All, first post from me, most people may be on tomorrow’s member post by now but wanted to add my experience of following Colin’s excellent tips and say it certainly is not just AW. Colin’s Flat Turf tips have been excellent over the recent season, and as far as my results go are outperforming AW. I only use BFSP and I have made a lot more profit on the Flat than AW following Colin. Just want to thank all those that post regularly, great people on here : )

    3. Yep, get a horse race base account John! Their 3 day free trial is back up and running from what I can see – did have a few months not accepting any members- but if you like digging into stats etc, then it’s a great bit of kit.

      https://www.horseracebase.com/index.php

      That portfolio sounds fine, i’d EW on S2A if you want a smoother (less painful!) journey to the profit lands, but ROI etc is best win only, but can be rocky. S1 + S2A combined is for the brave/those with proper banks/start small/prepared for losing runs- they will land on some nice winners in time, and decent profits – or have done live to date for some time anyway!

  4. COLINS BETS
    New members and Old members of RTP,appear to be tagged with AW only.
    Colins bets are my own bets and have always backed the three codes NH,FLAT and AW and had never separated them before till September 2017 when started to put them up on the Free Post AW only to prove that you could make good profit on the AW after a few people slated the AW,Josh included Haha,for me a 3/1 winner at Wolverhampton pays the same as a 3/1 winner at Ascot and profit is all that interests me,love to watch top class racing of course i do but enjoy the profit from the AW.
    My records will show results from the three codes and anyone wishing to back AW only will have to keep their own for mine will not tally in future.
    Cheers
    Colin

  5. 230 plump. ladbrokes really pushing out the price on skelton horse now, 3/1 out to 8/1, inside information anyone? just watch how ladbrokes manipulate the markets with skelton runners. how does the industry allow a bookie to sponsor trainers and jockeys? while only allowing ‘winning’ punters 12p bets? Pathetic! In other industries you could go too prison for 7 years for passing inside information!

    1. I doubt there’s any inside info 🙂 If they knew it wasn’t that good, then they would have put it in at bigger prices wouldn’t they?? Take loads of money on a horse they know can’t win… that initial price is a market reaction to team Skelton now, and they can tend to fear anything so unexposed – the price for that one was just silly this morning, and if you’re steaming into that at 3s then you get what you deserve, even if he hacks up, on paper that was short, 8s more like it. They will have accounts- the Skeltons do like a bet, and maybe there has been nothing from the Skelton account etc. You’d have thought they would have found out his chance before pricing up if all dodgy. Well that’s how I would read it, maybe i’m too forgiving and naive. 🙂

        1. I think it makes them more likely to play ball as the scrutiny is greater. Who knows, if you think such shenanigans go on, i’m sure they would continue whether sponsorship or not.

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