Today’s tipping content from the Members’ post, I hope I haven’t just cursed them all! My ‘big race’ eyes are a bit out of form in truth but can hopefully get back on track today. In part that’s the nature of the beast when you play in those competitive C2/G3 handicaps, but recent efforts have been a bit shoddy – mainly my lack of consideration for the winners.. (Sizing Tennessee/Walk on The Mill/Harry The Viking/Cogry…to name four recent winners of races where I found losers). Anyway, hard graft is the only way out of the mire and you have to back yourself. Below these big race tips are my ‘test’ ‘best of my stats qual’ tips… I’ve been finding some form with those in recent days, +20 points in the last 10 days or so. I started that in early November and i’d take +23 points every 6 weeks…a healthy +200 a year. Something for me to aim at anyway. As a reminder, this test is where I use every stats qualifier that my members’ content throws up, before analysing them with my subjective form eyes, and picking out what I like best at the prices. With that said, the selections below, with write ups. This day could go one of two ways here, gulp… best of luck.
BIG Race Tips
(2018: +145 points)
1.55 Chelt –
Baron Alco – 2 point win – 13/2 (gen) (some 7s around)
Guitar Pete – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen)
TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (22/87,43p, +23.6 , all 1 point win)
1.00 Donny – The Unit– 9/4 (gen) (added 10.05)
1.20 Chelt – Ozzie The Oscar – 7/2 (gen)
2.10 Donc – Equus Amadeus –
13/2 6/1 (gen)
2.20 Here – Flashing Glance – 8/1 (gen)
write ups… Big Race Tips…
Baron Alco- well if this one doesn’t win i’ll promise not to curse a horse with 2 points for a long time yet, at least until the big race profit pile starts climbing again. My eyes are working ok, well as per the test below, but my big race analysis is still a tad poor, but i’ll keep soldiering on. Rock The Kasbah was just awful, The Bay Birch was annoying, i didn’t expect a UR, and I hate not knowing. Anyway, at least with this one I have a prominent racer… i don’t think he’s finished improving yet, I think he stays well and this course may suit more, he’ll be right up there, jumps well, doesn’t know how to run a bad race over fences (yet to be unplaced) and my word he must have the best collateral form in this race by some way. I won’t detail it all here here but it stacks up so well, those horses that have beat him into 2nd in handicap chases…the likes of Charbel and Road To Respect have gone on to much better things, and that’s just mentioning two of them. Those chases he’s run in have worked out so well – look at the Novice Chase he came second in here in Dec 16 – Whisper in front, Sizing Tennessee behind. I don’t think he’s reached his ceiling yet and he could improve again from LTO. He started to pull away when winning there. He ticks all the stats for this and 9 horses in the last 21 renewals have tried this Cheltenham double, two have won, another placed, one PU when making a howler, and the rest were often more exposed/got whacked by the handicapper and couldn’t follow up. I don’t think this mark will stop him and if he’s still on his feet, I think he’ll be leading turning for home. It will take a good one to stop him, and importantly I think he’s 2/3 points overpriced here. He’s the one to beat for me and i’ll happily wade in, to glory! He won’t mind if the rain comes and it softens up a tad either…
Guitar Pete – and neither will this one. He won last year, fortuitously with the ill fated Starchitect, but he then thumped the rest. This has to have been the plan and horses have won this twice before, back to back. Richards is in much better form when last seen and Ryan Day returns. He stayed on well LTO and has guts and stamina- again better suited to the New Course which is a stiffer test. I don’t think he’ll be far away here if jumping to his best and he’s another that hits all the stats. Both of these have a touch of class, having performed at higher levels/in deeper races, yet still could have more to come in handicap chases. He shouldn’t be 10/1 here, it’s a tad insulting. The reason he’d get closer to the selection and Frodon is this different track- he was doing all his best work late there, and like I say this must have been the plan, sneaking in at the bottom. I’m happy to have a dart at 10s.
The rest…well Rather Be may scoot home having been brought down when still travelling in Baron Alco’s race but it’s a far stretch to suggest 4 from home that he’d have won. I think both the selections look stronger stayers than him around here. And we don’t know what that will have done to his confidence- that’s twice the poor soul has been brought down at this track, once at the Festival in a hurdle where i’d tipped him, but thankfully he got the job done for us at Aintree NTO. He should still be well handicapped and I can see the case, but he doesn’t look overpriced and he will have to chase Baron Alco at some point, and go past. I’m not sure he will. But clearly I won’t fall off my seat if he does.
Frodon is a worthy top weight but I don’t see why he should get the better of Baron here, if both running their race. The latter is open to further progress but he does have class and will run well. Mr Medic is interesting for the in form Walford but this is his first run at the track and I don’t think he’s beaten much in his handicap career to date yet. Given those two factors I was happy to leave at 9s, i’d want a shade bigger, but he would be an annoying winner- i’ll take the proven track and Grade3+ form of the selections ahead of him, but he’s got more races in him. Cepage is the other interesting one but this is his seasonal reappearance, he can get himself worked up pre race, he can be held up and also hit a fence. The selections have a higher level of form to date, but he is still unexposed. 12s may be ok, but enough niggles for me. Those two would be the two annoying big priced winners. I should mention War Sound given the form of the Hobbs yard- he looks progressive to a point but he is 9 and those over 8 generally struggle in this historically. He was also whacked by the handicapper and is usually held up. Again, his form as yet doesn’t compare to my two or the fav, but of course if all three fluff their lines, something has to win it! I was more than happy to leave the rest, they all need to step forward on what they’ve done for me
Pace…well Baron will be right up there along with Twisters. Mine doesn’t have to lead but the latter could be in better form, and isn’t as strong a stayer over this trip/track. I expect Baron to take it up before they swing for home, or as they approach the straight.
The stats…well those that hit the 10/10 stats below… Rather Be / baron alco / Frodon/ Guitar Pete / Mr Medic / Cepage / Casablanca Mix / Dr Newlands / Cobra De Mai.
Those stats + the running in a G1 stat and running 21-45 days ago leave 8/48,19p…and the four to also hit those two stats are… Rather Be / Baron Alco/ Frodon / Guitar Pete… it could be between those four, and I hope i’ve landed on the right two!
Best of The Stats Quals write ups…(all of these horses initially qualified against my track stats or my micro system test zone angles)
Before I get onto these four, I’ll mention Top And Drop (1.10 Here)…her price collapsed sadly. I’d have tipped her at 9/2 for sure, as I think she ran well LTO, is unexposed as a chaser and looks sure to relish this trip on both running style and breeding – but, it is an unknown and she has to prove it, which makes the 9/4 a bit short for me, I could have taken the risk at 9/2 given the questions with the oppo. She’ll probably be the only winner now! 🙂 (damn, i’ve said it)
The Unit… a ‘late’ addition after the first three I put up but I think 9/4 is actually too big here and he could be 7/4 if not 6/4 based on form. Hutch is here which is always a bonus, the horse jumps and travels well, is unexposed in handicaps, drops into an easier race than LTO and i think this trip may suit better – I think he was starting to run on empty after the last at Market Rasen and had arguably been given too much to do. He’s top rated, and by some way, on all three ratings sets I use. He beat Drinks Interval in August (who’d just beat the time before) and he’s since won 2 on the bounce for Tizzard and was possibly going to win off 147 LTO, when unseating when leading. He could still have a bit in hand here on that evidence, and he’s better LH. Amour De Nuit is short given that worrying race LTO. Maybe he bounced but his chase form as yet doesn’t stack up to the selection, but Harry is here. Value At Risk – i’d want bigger than 10/3 given his inconsistencies although he has the ability. Robbing The Prey has to step up but McCain is in superb form again so not discounted. I do think Kings is the one to beat and the break is a positive given a busy summer…he’s 4/7,6p returning 31-60 days and ran well after 75 days last time. This may be his last chance to win before the ground goes.
Ozzie The Oscar.. he’s still unexposed over fences and that Exeter run was very good, no negative losing to Gods Own there I don’t think. Having watched the Ascot run back I think he paid for trying to keep tabs on Speredek- I think he did too much, and had nothing left after the last two, and that once is a classy horse. The race was won by a hold up horse. He’s a decent jumper at his best, I think is going better LH and I was lured in by the pace- I think Dicky will try and dictate here, and kick turning for home. He could get this lot on the stretch. That’s the theory anyway. He won’t mind if it softens up a tad. Bun Doran is up 10lb from that last win which may do for him. I would have it between the top 2 on recent form, the rest need to step up and don’t look on the best of terms with themselves, albeit a couple may have needed recent runs. I’ll go with the front runner and one who’s hard fit, and who could still have room in this mark. Fluent jumping and dictating pace is worth a few pounds anyway. He should be the one they have to pass.
Equus… the first of two for the ever in form Tom Lacey. This horse is still unexposed in handicap hurdles and takes a rather big drop down from The Greatwood LTO. He was up there for a long way, fading three from home – that was his first run after a Wind Op and he will have missed work during that spell. There’s a chance he comes on a tad for that run. He won at Wincanton before that and did it a shade cosily. This is his trip and if he got back to the level of his Sandown 2l 3rd in April, he’d got very close to winning this and would certainly outrun his odds of 6/1. The two horses in front in that Sandown race are now in the low 140s. He’s booked the best available to him in Aidan Coleman, in terms of those who ride for him, and that’s a positive for me. I thought there were questions on the rest Irish Roe fell LTO and looks at the top of her handicap ceiling to me, open to attack from anything with more in hand. I can leave Solomon Great at 9/2 after 300 days off -he’s open to more progress this season and his yard are in form. He’d be the biggest danger if fit I think. Cliffs Of Dover can be too keen and is inconsistent, making 7/2 not overly generous to my eyes. I can leave him. Zoffany Bay may run well, another unexposed one, but the selection has a higher level of form already I think, although he was going well LTO before a bad error. Anyway, 6/1 felt a couple of points too big here.
Flashing Glance.. he won’t mind any rain and I thought 8s was a shade too big here. He was brought down, rather than UR LTO, where he was plugging on and would have been 3rd or 4th. He got visibly outpaced there and i’m intrigued to see him over this 19.5f. He also had top weight there, at Sandown, in heavy. I think he wants cut in the ground to be seen at his best and he has some decent back form over hurdles which suggests one day he may make 129 look lenient still. Those two runs last Sept/Oct were decent – Amour De Nuit in front, who races in The Unit’s chase, but he reached 138 over hurdles. At Chepstow he had Silver Streak and Dolos in front, Fidux behind him – that’s probably one of the best pieces of handicap hurdle form on offer here. He thumped a 127 horse easily enough on his next start, which bar LTo was his last run on softer going. He didn’t take to fences and on his second hurdle start back from a brief chase campaign, I think he’ll go close here. Robbie Dunne is here which is a positive and I thought 8s was too big. Coeur Blimey has ability and intrigued me- he has been backed but was 6s by the time I got to him, which I could leave. He was awful LTO, even if badly needing it. He may prefer softer but has some very good big handicap placed efforts to his name. He’s the best horse in the Gardner yard and they are in better form than when he last ran- however I don’t like his jumping. He can really clout one, and that makes 6s short enough but he wouldn’t be a surprise winner here if getting it all together. It may be competitive enough on paper but I just want the selection to get back to that Chepstow level- he will out run 8s if he does.
That will be all for today. Fingers crossed 2 of them can go in, or at least Ozzie to pay for the rest and leave some beer money. 🙂
Stats/trends from members’ post
Caspian Caviar Gold Cup
10/10 aged 8 or younger (9+, 0/30,2p)
10/10 top 2 at least once last 3 runs (0/29,2p did not)
10/10 had placed at least once last 3 runs (0/34,3p had not)
9/10 ran 21-45 days ago (9/92,29p)
8/10 had run at G1 level previously
- G1: 8/87,23p
- G2 or below (highest class run): 2/57, 12p)
- 0 track runs: 0/11,2p
- Cheltenham: 6/64,16p
- Ascot: 2/12,5p
- X1: Perth/Muss
- Newbury: 0/19,1p
- P Nicholls: 4/19,7p
- X1: V Williams/N Henderson/N Richards/D Pipe/NTD/P Hobbs