Members Daily Post: 16/12/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Carlisle

12.50 – Ballasalla   (nov HcCh) 14 9/2

3.00 – Lough Derg Farmer   (HcCh, micro TJC) 14 H3 G1 9/4

 

Southwell

12.10 – Corner Creek   (m age) H3 9/2

12.40 – Generous Day   (m runs) H1 I3 3/1

3.20 – Maggies Legend   (all Hc’s) H3 14/1 S2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago 

Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>> Welcome Email HERE>>>

Updated: The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

More Welcome Info  HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +142)

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (24/91,45p, +30.4 , all 1 point win) 

12.10 South – Corner Creek – 9/2 (gen)

12.40 South – Generous Day – 11/4 (gen)

1.55 – Carl – Trongate – 7/2 (WH/BV/Coral) 10/3 (gen)

2.15 South – Birch Vale – 11/2 (lad/wh) 5/1 (gen)

 

as of 09.52, write ups…

Corner Creek – I thought 9/2 was a shade too big here… he will prefer this better ground, drops back into a C5, Tom Scu is back on, he likes winning at Southwell and he should be up there – i suspect they will try and make all. I still think there could be some room in this mark. Midnight Bliss is short enough given seasonal reappearance and when he won after 400+ days two starts back under rules, he’d actually been doing well pointing and was hard fit. He knows how to win and if he is a1 here, is a clear danger, but i’ll hope, at his price, that he’ll need it. I can’t have the rest, the Murphy horse is short given his profile but maybe the blinkers will work wonders.

Generous Day – value is in the eye of the beholder and I don’t like looking what prices horses were the evening before, but appears this one was 11/2! Damn. But, on my assessment I still think 11/4 offers some value. He’s a bull of a horse and ran very well LTO on his first run of the season. He jumped a tad to the left at times there so going this way may help. He will race prominently and unlike his market rival, has proven he knows how to win. If jumping as well as LTO, he will be bang there jumping the last. He will appreciate the cut in the ground also, the trainer likes winning handicap chases here and the horse has won here over hurdles. Cash To Ash is a danger but his jumping was scratchy and he does run as if he wants further- there’s a chance this track doesn’t suit and he does need to prove he can get his head in front – 3s is arguably always short enough for a horse that has yet to win a race. I was happy to leave the rest.

Trongate – he’s just solid and I liked the fact Hughes was back on as the horse is a decent jumper but can throw in the odd minor error- they’ll be no excuse on that front under this pilot. The horse relishes the mud, is improving fast to my eyes, and just looks like a galloper who could stay further in time. I think he’ll relish this climb to the line and if leading over the last, I suspect will stay there. I think there’s more to come from him and the rest have a few questions…twisters ran poorly LTO but you can forgive any horse a bad run, maybe he bounced but he does have stamina to prove, which makes 7/2 only ok. Reverant Cust has stamina and in this ground to prove, but is unexposed as is Slanelough but i preferred to side with winning chase form. Ryalex is solid enough but this mark may find him out and he faces some much better opposition here- I can’t think all five  OR123+ horses will fail to run up to marks/or none will improve further, which means he has at least another 13lb to find from somewhere. He may do that but 9/2 wasn’t overly generous I didn’t think. I’d make the selection clear fav I think, he could be 1 point too big here.

Birch Vale … 5s is a bit big for this unexposed mare. She may have needed the run LTO but in any case it was over 2m4f in heavy ground. Given she bolted up the run before over 16f on decent ground, i’ll assume that was the issue until proven otherwise. Kennedy gets on well with her and she will try and dictate this from the front. It’s arguably a hot little contest given she’s the only non LTO winner in the race, but the two below her won weak enough contests and need to improve, which of course one of them may do. Kimberley Point – I was struggling to work out where they got the mark of 123 from – I may have missed something, but it’s not impossible that overrates her ability and she doesn’t actually have much if anything in hand, unlike the selection. Five horses have ran since from her last race without winning as yet, inc the 2nd and 3rd who both got turned over at short odds. She can also be keen and hard to settle. Hopefully Birch Vale plays catch me if you can, and she will stay out in front. Worth a nibble at 5s I thought, she should be 7/2 or so like the other two.

I pondered Ballasalla for McCain- but in the end thought I wanted bigger for this chase debutant- I don’t know how he will jump (and he wasn’t the best over hurdles LTO), or if he will handle the ground and there’s a chance he wants further. McCain does well here in novice handicap chases – 8/28,13p since 2013, 1/11,3p with those that have yet to run over fences – they usually improve stacks on 2nd/3rd/4th chase start. He is 2/13,5p with all novice handicap chases for Trevor Hemmings in that time. This one is related to Ballabriggs and will prove that 105 is lenient at some point, (his last run was ok, some much higher rated rivals in front) but just too much guessing. I wouldn’t put anyone off a nibble but he also has two well fancied ones to beat. They may mind him here and be bringing him along slowly, and I like the fact they haven’t wasted any time getting him over fences- that’s clearly where his future lies. I wouldn’t fall of my seat if he bolted up, but like I say plenty of educated guessing and 6s may only be ok.

I also stared at Mac N Cheese for a while, maybe because i’m hungry. In the end I thought this was a hot enough contest and he has a bit to find on ratings. He’s up in class and was also poor LTO over fences but it was his first run of the season. All his winning form is in heavy and this is only his 7th handicap hurdle. He does just look like a slow boat who will keep grinding away, but a few of these have achieved a higher level of hurdle form already. His yard is in great form though, and another I wouldn’t deter a small interest in, but there just wasn’t enough there for me to tip even at 9s. Hopefully I haven’t got those two wrong.

Best of luck with any bets.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide)

2.15 S – Birch Vale 11/2

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

12.20 C – Extra Bald 14/1

2.25 C – Lord Du Mesnil 8/1

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Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO Winning Trainers

1.55 Carl – Trongate (10/1< guide) 10/3

Trainers to Follow 

2.25 C – Mac N Cheese 9/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Take a bow… well you, the motley crew (and I mean that in an endearing way) that are RTP members never cease to amaze me – that must be one of the better collective days of effort in the comments!! Give yourselves a pat on the back… James just thought he’d casually put up a 50/1 winner of an Irish Bumper, as you do (I wasn’t on, looks like at least one other was which is what it’s about – some sound trainer/jockey combo logic there), Martin W with two three!  nice winners, 12s, 9s +7s, a 28/1 3rd, from four bets. Stewart chipped in, Nick remembered how to read a race (ha! 🙂 I mean i’m still struggling in ‘big races’). I feel like the only person on here not to have tipped Frodon! Well done all of you who did, a finer round of galloping and jumping you’ll struggle to see in a handicap chase. You’ve all got permission to request 3 months free membership now IF i ever tip a 2 point win bet again, at least before the end of June 🙂 Anyway, thanks as always, the place would be a bit dull without you all chipping in. I’m writing before the odd evening AW winner no doubt…

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Carlisle ‘Through The Card’ – for new member Norman, as requested via email.

as always, a quick flick through.. Tongate is a tip so I clearly like that one plenty, and along with Flash Jack (fancied in comments also) would probably be the strongest, hopefully 2 or 3 winners there…but as always, never be put off your own fancy… i didn’t spend overly long on some of those races…

12.20 – The Hollow Chap (small EW, fav should win well…)

12.50 – Divine Port

1.20 – Captain Zebo

1.50 – Tongate (tip above)

2.25 – Flash Jack

3.00 – Chef D’oeuvre

3.30 – Shocona’s Joy

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

30 Comments

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  • was going to give tomorrow a miss but there’s one i just can’t resist at the price.
    Southwell. 12-40 Riddlestown 16-1 1/2 pt ew
    i’m also having a small ew on Bertie Moon 50-1 in the 3-20 who won me quite a few quid a couple of years back

    martin whittle 15/12/18 5:24 PM Reply


  • Happy to contribute a nice winner to this great site Josh, which is the best in the business for my money: Tips, stats, big race trends and some very knowledgeable members with a nice community feel all for a reasonable price – I don’t know what i would do without the place!

    Ok so i may have had a couple of glasses of rouge to celebrate, so excuse the gushiness! Anyway onwards team RTP!

    James P 15/12/18 7:33 PM Reply


    • That was very gushy James haha. Much appreciated. 🙂

      Josh 16/12/18 10:44 AM Reply


  • Think you’re doing Martin W a disservice above Josh, he also had Brandon Roc at 12/1 to make it 3 out of 4! Exceptional performance 🙂
    Mike

    Bottlabroon 15/12/18 7:37 PM Reply


    • ah yes, so I did! indeed an incredible day from Martin. and a few others. Hope you had the odd nibble!

      Josh 16/12/18 10:43 AM Reply


  • Carlisle 1.55 1pt ew Ryalex 8/1

    alpha2 15/12/18 10:43 PM Reply


  • while Josh snoozes here’s my pitiful attempt at Carlisle through the card.
    12-20 The Hollow Chap 16-1
    12-50 Trooblue 9-2
    1-20 One For Rosie 4-5
    1-55 Trongate 3-1
    2-25 Mac N Cheese 8-1
    3-00 Lough Derg Farmer 5-2
    3-30 Shocona’s Joy 6-4

    martin whittle 16/12/18 8:22 AM Reply


    • I’m up now! Given your form I may just copy and paste that. 🙂

      Josh 16/12/18 8:39 AM Reply


      • looks like there’s a bit of a punt going on The Hollow Chap

        martin whittle 16/12/18 11:12 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    S 12.40 – Cash To Ash on 3rd run @ 4
    Festival
    N 1.00 – Mastermind on 7th run @ 25
    3m+
    C 3.00 – Lowanbehold on 2nd run @ 11/2
    GL

    Titus 16/12/18 8:40 AM Reply


  • If anyone had the winner of the 3.40 yesterday with 365 then you’ll have a risk free bet in the 12.40 today. Generous Day was 11/2 last night when I looked. It’s now 11/4.

    Stan 16/12/18 9:06 AM Reply


    • Hi Stan. If you have a winner of a live ITV race, normally the the free bet is in the next live ITV race.

      Jim 16/12/18 9:16 AM Reply


      • James. You’re right. It’s Sunday morning and I haven’t fully woken up yet!

        Stan 16/12/18 9:37 AM Reply


        • Haha, know what you mean mate!

          jim 16/12/18 9:56 AM Reply


  • Flashjack Carlisle 14:25 1.5pt win 9/2
    Birch Vale Southwell 14:15 1.5pt win 5/1

    Nick Mazur 16/12/18 9:28 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    No bet
    December SP – 8.5 BOG – 7.5

    ELITE BETS

    2.25 Carlisle Big River BOG 4/1
    December SP – 15 BOG -15

    Hit the crossbar a few times with decent prices and not being an EW fan only back on the nose there always will be losing runs that is why i recommend a BANK of 100 bets,so this month so far 15 losing bets you would have 85 bets in the bank to play with so nothing to worry about and more than likely Elite by the end of the month could well be in profit.
    Timing on joining any tipster or method myself included go through torrid times from time to time,anyone joining Josh or Nick would be asking questions what have i done,mainly those are the ones who start with a small bank or none at all.
    COLINS BETS
    since starting putting these bets on RTP have had 10 winning months from 15 at Bookmakers SP and from past years when i could have BOG would have 12 or 11 winning months per year,so no bookmakers accounts open if you are constantly beating SP you will be closed down no matter what your stake is.
    Cheers
    Colin

    cleafe 16/12/18 10:03 AM Reply


    • Winners and losers can come in cycles Colin so the next batch of winners will soon arrive for your bets
      I hope new members understand the psyche of having a decent bank so its good you keep informing them – nothng more irritating than betting more than you can afford early doors then running out of bank just before the next winners come along

      Andrew Gilmore 16/12/18 10:30 AM Reply


      • Hi Andrew
        Will always mention betting banks for my experience with my old tipping line Colin Leafe Racing long since stopped,the company i used for placing my bets had a blip and five customers had access to my mobile phone number and they had joined on a losing run and boy did i receive abuse for a while,at the end of the day they all had no bank to bet with and i feel that they expected every bet i mentioned would win.
        Cheers
        Colin

        cleafe 16/12/18 10:58 AM Reply


    • Colin
      It was interesting you have put up Big River back over Hurdles it’s best form I think is over fences and 3+m . Kelso seems to be his fav track 5/6 wins. He was entered last week for the Borders National but not dec at the latter stages. Pity I was there and would have had a decent bet on.

      I have had a wee touch just in case.

      My sel today is ANGUS MILAN 2.35Nav

      GL Today

      Mike

      mickeydee 16/12/18 11:00 AM Reply


      • Hi Mike
        First of all Elite Bets is a system based approach however do on occasions have a check of the horses records mainly if there is a going change but to my cost before missed a 40/1 etc because i knew best.
        Did look this morning and for me should handle going from heavy to good.
        Won a hurdle race over 3mile 2 furlong class 2 and todays race is class 3 over 3 mile 1 furlong so no problem staying only needs to win!!
        Big River record
        6 runs Chase 2 wins,1 2nd,1 3rd
        6 runs Hurdle 3 wins,2 2nds
        Must just like jumping,dont we all oops thats for another site!!!

        Elite if you try reading into the bets then you will never back some of the 20/1 and bigger priced winners,said it before trainers do not run horses for punters.
        Cheers
        Mike

        cleafe 16/12/18 11:27 AM Reply


  • Hi Nick
    Thank you for your bets started at £20 a bet then went to £40 and after your return from Japan went to £60 or £90 for the 1 1/2 point bets do not back EW so at times lengthy long runs of losers for me so in December, 2 winners from 23 so far and my betting is Betfair Excgange SP which on most occasions will beat Bookmakers SP.
    Outstanding tipping Nick keep it up.
    Cheers
    Colin.
    PS just wanted to show anyone reading that if you have a Bank you can build even at SP,whether its Nicks,Josh,Colins or Elite or anyone else but you must have a suitable Bank for whoever you follow.

    cleafe 16/12/18 10:29 AM Reply


    • Thanks Colin. Hopefully I will get to those sort of stakes in time myself.

      Nick Mazur 16/12/18 11:39 AM Reply


  • I don’t know if this is the correct place to say this but Ian from SP2A is ignoring my emails .I have emailed him 3 times now and I have gave him 2 weeks to give me my refund .I know you go on here sometimes .So if you are reading this do the right thing .

    Pendo 16/12/18 11:16 AM Reply


    • Hey. Feel free to email me in private and discuss. I’m also awaiting a reply in response to some queries as to the advertised results but I only sent that couple days back and I’m always more patient at weekends. I’m always happy to go into bat on any of my readers behalf who have joined another service I’ve advertised. This isn’t the place to air any grievances as such on that front but do email me and if Ian does read this there’s not need to a reply on here but with any luck he will email back. That’s a concerning amount of time without reply to such a request. Do email me on basis on what refund is based on…I’m lost to a point with his profit guarantee refund policy etc. Josh

      Josh 16/12/18 11:35 AM Reply


      • Hi Josh
        I too joined SP2A solely on your recommendation and the past performance as reported. Following the trial I signed up for a year in April. The jury is still very much out for me. The results since then do not seem anywhere near as impressive as previously. But I am really glad you have asked questions about the results as I find them totally confusing. They keep saying they are being updated and improved but when I asked I was just told it’s on the website. That didn’t really help! Another small gripe is they say in a post they will be doing x y and z the following day then don’t seem to do it – a link being provided to the results and informing more about the profit guarantee scheme for those signed up longer being examples. Still not really sure what I will be offered in this respect when coming to renew. I am not complaining just would like things a little clearer. Cheers

        Mike 16/12/18 1:01 PM Reply


        • Yep been a torrid few months since May time but hopefully it turns around. But as I said I don’t want that discussion taking place on the members boards. Ian will respond to emails so caan give any feedback to him directly or email me….the issue with James is being sorted. Some confusion over emails but doesn’t look like Ian received them but that’s all being sorted from emails I have been copied into.
          Josh

          Josh 16/12/18 1:10 PM Reply


          • Point taken – apologies

            Mike 16/12/18 1:29 PM Reply


          • Yes Ian has replied and sorted it .I had sent my emails to the wrong address .Thats the matter closed .Cheers

            Pendo 16/12/18 1:37 PM Reply


  • 225C This extreme test looks highly suitable for Big River (See easy win 3/17).
    Most form is LH but seems OK this way. 9/2.

    chrisrees 16/12/18 1:40 PM Reply


  • 7 runners in the 2.25 Carlisle,three were covered by RTP Jump sheet,Nick and Myself and not one of the three in the first two,again shows how hard it is to make a profit.
    Then if you add the unstoppable Dee four were covered in the 2.25,and again not one in the first two.
    Colin

    cleafe 16/12/18 2:44 PM Reply


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