Members Daily Post: 14/12/18 (complete)

Test x2, Big race tip x1, section 1 (complete), test zone, re-cap, Caspian trends…

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Bangor

12.25 – Hands of Stone  (micro age) G3 4/1 UP

1.00 – Same Circus  (m going) H3 G3 9/2 WON 11/2 

1.35 – The Herds Garden  (HcH, m going) H3 G1 9/2 2nd 

2.10 – Knock House  (HcH, m dist/going/runs) 13/2  WON 13/2>9/2

 

Cheltenham

1.55 –

Miss Night Owl  (m age) 18/1 S2A UR 

Song Saa  (m age) 12/1 S2 

Troubled Soul  (HcCh, m TJC, class) 14  w1 12/1 S2 UR 

2.30 –

Singlefarmpayment  (m age) H3 I3 G3 7/1 S4 2nd 

Kerrow  (m class) 7/1 UP

 

Doncaster

12.00 – Wolfcatcher   (all Hc’s)  w1 H1 I3 G3 5/4 S4 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago 

Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>> Welcome Email HERE>>>

Updated: The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

More Welcome Info  HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +145)

 

BIG Race Tips

1.55 Chelt – The Bay Birchpoint win – 8/1 (gen) UR -2, oh darn, her jumping is her strong suit, sadly over jumped/landed steep game over. Didn’t think he’d have her that far back, guessing as to how that would have unfolded being so far out, annoying, I keep saying i’ll never do a 2 pointer again, seems to be a burden they can’t get over!

as of 17.47… that’s it for big race tips today…

I may have cursed this one with the rare 2 pointer but this mare should be favourite for me, or in any case no bigger than 9/2 on what we know. I could stick to 1 point but i’ve put my 2 point tipping stake of my own money on so it would be wrong not to echo that with the staking. Why am I relatively bullish? (cue brought down fence 1) – well she’s a fantastic jumper and I’m not sure anything in this race, at their relative stages of development/what they have all done to date, could do what she did at Newbury LTO- chasing home two unexposed chasers from powerful connections, 1.5L behind one rated 134 and who knows what the winner will go on to do. She had a 142 horse 10L further back. That’s the best handicap chase form on offer in this line up and that run suggests she’s improved from last season, and she drops in class here. This looks to have been the plan as well – two hurdle runs, and then her best effort back over fences LTO in a much deeper race, held up rather far back and staying on well. She returns 13 days later here and all of her handicap wins (and all wins) have come in the 8-15 day rest period – 3/11,5p. She’s 3/9,7p in handicaps since being with The ‘Sheppards’ and some timely divine intervention wouldn’t go amiss! All roads to Bethlehem. She also has course form, having chased home Midnight Target in April (also on The New Course, which is more galloping/stiffer than the Old Course) – that mare got an easy lead that day and then kicked at the right time and put in a superb leap at the last. Watching it back i suspect Stan was kicking himself for not letting her go as he tanked upsides at one point and she seems to stay well, and she clearly handled decent ground there. She also came into that race on the back of a busy campaign. I think there will be more pace in this today, which will suit this strong travelling sort and I hope he gets after her soon enough. There’s a small chance that last run actually took a bit out of her but that’s guessing and 8s is just silly for me. She’s 2nd rated on HRB, top rated on Geegeez and just ticks so many boxes for me. The extra 1 point confidence does come from the strength of that run LTO and my suspicion this has been the plan.

Clearly Midnight Target is entitled to go close and her trainer is in form, albeit her last run was a bit underwhelming although she probably needed it. The selection is 1 year younger, albeit with more chase runs, and I expect/hope the tables to be turned. Maybe a 1/2 point to spare my blushes. I really can’t have the rest at the prices for one reason or another – maybe something steps forward and plenty are unexposed but their level of chase form just doesn’t compare to the selections and they all have questions – some haven’t won over fences yet, some look out of form, and these fences may put a few in their place. Gordon Elliot has one, and they should always be feared and maybe this has been the plan but she needs to step forward and may want it softer. She does have to prove her stamina also, the furthest she’s won over is 2m2f. So, we shall see. I’ll probably get what I deserve but there we go, 2 points at 8/1 it is, and i’ll dream of glory. She’ll canter into this approaching the last, let’s hope something hasn’t got away from her, she gets motoring early enough, and outstays them.

(i’ve tipped Rock The Kasbah in the free post, 1 point win 5/1)

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TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (22/87,43p, +23.6 , all 1 point win, all odds) 

1.00 Bangor – Same Circus – 9/2 (betfS/BV/SkyB/PP) 4/1 (the rest)  WON 9/2>11/2 

1.20 Chelt – Ninepointsixthree – 25/1 (BetfS/BV/PP) 22/1 (gen) UP 14/1…ah, well I think we can say outclassed there, he plugged on ok…back to Sedgefield. May be an ok price NTO if easy lead assured. He had some ok form on good so I won’t use that as an excuse, but just could not go the pace, having set off in front- an error may have knocked him as he is mentally fragile I think. Anyway, a poke that didn’t come off. The winner is the one to take from that, he will go on to better things, the rest in a heap. I thought the ground may be lively enough but unproven, and did run well in a G2 bumper , made 6s look rather good! Jumps well. One to watch in spring festivals Chelt/Aintree or maybe the Scottish Champion hurdle! ….

 

That’s all for today, 08.44, write up…

Same Circus – she looks solid here and based on chase form achieved to date, should be the fav – she’s got experience inc a CD win, but this is also only her 6th handicap chase start and there could be more to come from her this season. She’s had 3 runs to blow the cobwebs away (albeit two over hurdles, no CP, and she fell in one only 8 flights in) and returned to fences LTO, running ok. Proper good ground has never truly suited her and Catterick is too tight. It’s no surprise she got outpaced but it was a step forward on previous efforts this year, running into some form. She returns to softer ground here and this doesn’t look the strongest of races – her win here over CD in a deep mares race was decent, producing a few winners since and a run to suggest a mark of 125 is within range. She should race prominently and if she can hold her position and jump, won’t be very far away. The rest have plenty of questions for me at their odds and I was happy to take them all on. Hughes could get these on the stretch, and she’ll be the one to pass as they turn for home I think.

Ninepointsixthree… yes yes clearly a poke and maybe he won’t be anywhere near good enough but to my eyes this isn’t a deep race and plenty of the inexperienced ones have questions, and i’m sure a few would prefer it softer. Sam England appears to have found the key with this one on his last two starts, the latter on his 12th run for the yard. He’s been tricky in the past and may still be so, but making all/being up there seems to have helped and maybe they’ve finally sorted his wind, having had an operation a few starts back. He ran well two starts ago, from an in form horse, and hacked up LTO, making all. I thought he’d try and do the same here and it isn’t impossible he gets an easy lead. It isn’t impossible he can kick for home and steal this from the front. He’s fit, in form, jumps, gallops, knows how to win and is ahead of his mark. He could just be a northern C4 handicapper, but I couldn’t help myself at 22s+. The Robert Walford horse is probably the right fav given this may have been the plan, given she won it last year. She may want it softer but could get away with it and may not be far away. I really couldn’t have the rest at the prices for one reason or another. I thought it was possible plenty of these run below their marks. Anyway, it’s a poke, but let’s hope we can have some fun on the front end, at least to the bottom of the hill.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

1.55 C – Troubled Soul 12/1 UR

3.40 C – Clondaw Cian 14/1

D McCain (14/1< guide)

1.00 B – Same Circus 9/2  WON 11/2 

1.35 B – The Herds Garden 9/2 2nd

2.20 D – Lough Derg Jewel 6/1 WON 6/1>3/1 

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

2.45 B – Discko Des Plages 50/1 UP

V Williams November (track Dec) (16/1< guide)

1.00 B – Achille 11/2 2nd

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide)

3.05 C – Wounded Warrior 25/1

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO Winning Hurdlers

1.20 C – Ninepointsixthree 22/1 UP

1.45 D – Golden Jeffrey 7/4 WON 7/4>13/8

LTO Winning Trainers

1.45 Donc – Golden Jeffrey (10/1< guide) 7/4 WON 7/4

Jockeys/Chasers

1.00 B – Early Retirement (9/1< best) 3/1 UP

2.30 C- El Bandit 8/1 UP

1.55 C – The Bay Birch 7/1 UR

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS update… to Note I have updated the main jumps strategies/results link in The Key above… of most use maybe the updated Test Zone figures etc. 

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Saturday…looking ahead... The Caspian Caviar  Gold Cup will be the feature..hopefully a decent field size, still 18 in,albeit a handful dominating the market…there’s another C2 handicap chase, the C2 mares handicap – I may cast an eye over both. And there’s a C2 3m+ handicap chase at Donny, but that may cut up. I suspect any ‘big race’ tipping efforts will focus on those four races…although there are a few interesting ones on Friday at Chelts also.  

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Saturday

Caspian Caviar Gold Cup

10/144, 35p

10/10 aged 8 or younger (9+, 0/30,2p)

10/10 top 2 at least once last 3 runs (0/29,2p did not)

10/10 had placed at least once last 3 runs (0/34,3p had not)

9/10 ran 21-45 days ago (9/92,29p)

8/10 had run at G1 level previously

  • G1: 8/87,23p
  • G2 or below (highest class run): 2/57, 12p)

Other

  • 0 track runs: 0/11,2p

Track LTO

  • Cheltenham: 6/64,16p
  • Ascot: 2/12,5p
  • X1: Perth/Muss
  • Newbury: 0/19,1p

Trainers

  • P Nicholls: 4/19,7p
  • X1: V Williams/N Henderson/N Richards/D Pipe/NTD/P Hobbs

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yesterday’s recap…

Quick recap, for my own mind/learning points, and if you like using a tracker etc! 

Murchison River… still well handicapped, will win again, I feel should have won here. He must have covered at least 1f more than the rest, wide all the way. Could be they feel the horse hates being crowded, but jockey also made a premature move for me around the outside turning for home, using up too much petrol. Front two miles clear, he’ll win again at that level soon I think, if well placed. 

Moore Novelty…happy with the stab, ran as if something amiss for me, keen, awkward head carriage at times, PU. He will be well handicapped one day from his sliding mark, when that is, who knows! Captain Mowbray…if I ever tip that horse again someone shout at me. Tipped him at Donny last season- he’s always held up too far back and my word what a shoddy round of jumping. He’ll win again, I wont’ be on. One for the bin. 

Mead Vale made an error at the wrong time but in truth didn’t cost the win – he looked outpaced, and is worth a go over 2m4f. He should still have room in this mark. Maybe a dubious one at price but I say that in hindsight but race was stronger than I thought, and I may have overrated his win LTO. 

Quarenta..hurrah a winner… most pleasing aspect, as with Hexham winner, was my replay watching- I’m getting better at that but was clear from both runs, and jockey body language, that their LTO runs were much better than bare result. Aidan got lucky here, nearly messing it up, finding all sorts of trouble and this horse stays, it’s a short run in at Warwick. He could have won by 3l+, and he’ll still be well handicapped. He could have a nice C2/3 chase in him at some point. He jumped/travelled very well. 

The 12.50 Warwick is a race that may work out very well, worth tracking. JohnBB for Lacey out-ran his odds. He’ll appear on the micros again, but he definitely has a race or two in him soon, maybe in handicaps. He was very keen for the most part, looked a big baby at times mentally but still cruised into it, suggesting he has some engine. He may want further or need settling off a stronger pace. He found for pressure. 

Nick was unlucky not to at least place with Sandy Boy – stamina looks to be his forte and is worth tracking, he’s clearly well handicapped at a lowly level for now. Should stay 3m+ in time. An indication that the market means sod all with the Hobbs yard! Drifted like mad out to 25s and he would have been top 3 at worst. March Is On ran well for Jonjo and is also worth tracking. He may want it softer but he was doing all his best work late, may not be much of a price NTO though, but he has handicaps in him. Another who should get further. He had some winning/placing pointing form to his name, before doing sod all over too short in maiden/novice hurdles earlier in the year > step into handicaps > up in trip > junior on = best rules run of career to date! 

Finally… Rocky Silver winning at 11/2 for the irish bonus stats and more importantly W1. A decent +5.5 point day for those. Could I have tipped him? Maybe, when they win like that. What can I learn…well he was a LTO winner of a maiden hurdle, fit and in form, beating some better fancied ones. He had more chase experience than most inc in points, and had some places there in soft. It was wet at Tramore which slowed everything down and this is his trainer’s target track – I think he may live around the corner. I didn’t consider his previous chase experience enough, in a weak race. And this was his first handicap!! He was also H3… 

HorseRaceBase… the 54 of you who’ve watched my ‘looking back’ video may have noted in their total ratings… the top 4 win 63% of ALL races…40% top 2.  In handicaps.. 53% are won by the top 3 in the ratings, 77% top 5. That’s never a bad starting point and his form to date put him second rated in that race, which given the only thing he’d done under rules was win that maiden hurdle, should have told me how weak the rest were. One that maybe got away, but at least covered with the W1 strategy. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. In the 1.20 at Cheltenham Magic Dancer is back in class 3 as is Champagne City. They both have form at Cheltenham, including running in the same race. There is not that much to separate them but Magic Dancer is 8/1 and Champagne City is 16/1 and so may be value.

    In the 2.30, Kerrow was going well last time out until falling at the last. 7/1 seems OK.

    In the 3.05, there is a french horse in the cross country race, Vol Noir De Kerser. Its form does not look great bur it is likely coming over to have a go at this to see if it is worth coming back for the festival. It is currently 14/1 and will likely either go well of come nowhere?

    Good luck.

  2. after my early morning through the card foray yesterday yielded 2 winners @8-1,14-1 at time of posting i thought i would have a bash at the ITV7 today, just for a bit of fun.
    Cheltenham.
    1-55 The Bay Birch 15-2
    2-30 Rock The Kasbar 5-1
    3-05 Bless The Wings 12-1
    3-40 Dans Le Vent 12-1
    Bangor.
    2-10 Kaki De La Pree 11-1
    2-45 The Some Dance Kid 7-2
    3-20 Welsh Saint 6-4
    45p ew accum for half a million , we can but dream 🙂

  3. Yesterday just about sums up my action right now. I put up just the one bet. Manetti in the 1.15 trading 18 – 20 on B/f at the time. Fav’ was withdrawn which reduced the odds to around 12.0 going to post. On course market opened and they really got stuck into it taking it down to a BFSP of 6.9. Having took 15.0 shortly after the Fav’ was withdrawn I thought I was on to a steamer and was expecting a nice run. Went off way too fast out front, ran out of steam well before the last and faded right out of it.

    So technically a no bet but even when the market supports my thinking I can’t seem to land one.

    Today’s possibilities…..
    Chel’ 12.10 Monsieur Darque…… 10.0
    Bang’ 12.25 Loch Garman Aris…. 7.6
    Bang’ 3.30 Ballyfarsoon………….. 7.6

    Back later in the afternoon with an AW update.

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    B 11.50 – Miss Amelia on 6th run @ 9
    B 12.25 – Hands of Stone on 7th run @ 4
    Festival
    C 1.20 – Smaoineamh Alainn on 3rd run @ 4
    3m+
    B 1.00 – Billy Bronco on 2nd run @ 9/2
    C 3.40 – Clondaw Cian on 7th run @ 33
    GL

  5. COLINS BETS

    NO BET Ninepointsixthree was a potential bet negatives for me only 2 races won both on Soft todays ground good also never won a class 3 race so unable to back it today.AW couple of potential bets both have negatives always tomorrow

    ELITE BETS

    2.30 Cheltenham Singlefarmpayment BOG 15/2
    2.55 Doncaster Little Mille BOG 9/2
    8.15 Kempton Miracle Garden Bog 8/1

    Colin

    1. Hi Colin, this may sound silly but are the “Elite Bets” your bets or do they come from a separate source? Thankyou, Tom.

      1. Hi Tom
        Nothing silly if you are risking your money following my Elite bets,they are from a separate source and they are from a system,backed them many years ago but were difficult to find now with the invention of the computer easy to find,have watched them over the years and it still throws up 20/1 to 40/1 winners every year.
        Started backing them myself in October and sods law they had a good month winning 21.75 points at SP,did not record BOG,November was possibly not the best time to start putting them for most betters struggled to find winners and December is following suit,yesterday a 10/1 2nd SP and 11/1 BOG so not far away,i always stress the BANK is the most important aspect of betting.
        Octobers winners
        7/2,20/1,10/1,6/4,7/2,4/1,11/2,5/1,5/1,16/1,7/4 from 65 bets at SP only

        Colin

        1. Are you able to describe the system so we understand the logic? i prefer to know the workings of system bets rather than back blind, even if its just at a high level and not giving much away.

          1. Hi James
            No i am not prepared to give anything away you have my CQLINS bets Free of charge and it is up to you if you wish to back Elite bets,had a wake up call on health issues so have started doing research on past methods to give my son a legacy and if he wishes to contact my contacts to start up a Subscription service or services when he completes his computer degree this year then i should still be around to help him.
            He may not wish to go down this path after what he has seen of the bookmakers from 12 years of age when he started to do all my computing for he has witnessed all my accounts being closed,and he his just 22 now.
            Cheers
            Colin

        2. Thanks for that Colin, I will keep an eye on them for the time being and then maybe get involved. This is just a great website and you guys are so helpful, thankyou. Kind regards, Tom.

          1. Tom thank you, and yes Josh has made this a outstanding site,for myself if i can help anyone beat the accountants sorry bookmakers then i enjoy it,with my reply to James have no bookmaker accounts open and i am not a wealthy man(could be a song)and everything i do or put up here as been researched,and in time Elite bets will show a good profit over 12 months and because i backed them from October i am still in profit so recording again BANK.
            Cheers
            Colin

  6. Wouldn’t normally get involved in novice hurdles but in the 2.45 Bangor Henry Daly has Rapper.His hurdle stats are round 10/1.His record with hurdlers here is an impressive 35% +33.a solid 17% generally with novice hurdlers,not quite the sweet spot regarding dist (2m3.5-2m6f+71).Coleman in good form.Might need a few of the market leaders to underperform but might be bit of value against them

    1. Ha cheers, well it was about bloody time! Long march ahead, but the eyes are working as good as they have been for a while – can’t substitute graft, I think i’ve been trying to cut corners for too long with the stats way in horses/or in general outside of big race tips- before with daily/test, I think i’d look at the horse, make a case, and go – but without doing the due diligence on every other runner in the race- which is what i’ve always done with big races etc – it’s the only way, and i’m judging the oppo/their value better, and that can make the case for a selection stronger of course. A 1.5 profit on day from all tips whatever else happens, inc free post, but one more would be welcome!

  7. That’s it really,doing the same thing thats worked over and over before,also when you have a winner,your mindset changes from fearful to positive

  8. Well .. what a day that was and has totally rubber stamped on where i go wrong on my daily betting forays !
    I digested and had bets on my micro angles throughout the day .. went off too hospital for an E.C.G. … made it back at 4pm went through all the text commentary on rp of each backed race and hey presto a profit … now if i stayed around and watched it all unfold this afternoon i would have no doubt felt super human and started backing in every race and give it all back .. trust me i have done it ( many a time 🙁 )…… but hopefully never again 🙁 !!

    gl/gb

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