Free Daily Post: 14/12/18 (Tipx1/complete)

Cheltenham Tip…

Free Tips

(Free tips 2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018, 9/109,32p, +47)

2.30 Chelt – Rock The Kasbah – 1 point win – 11/2 (betfS/PP) 5/1 (gen) UP, awful effort, couldn’t have got that more wrong! right take on fav, doesn’t stay on that evidence, Singlefarm should have won, but he always gets worried out of it, and i was nowhere near Cogry this time. Selection hasn’t run his race sadly, for whatever reason, maybe it was the 11-12 which weighed him down, as never in it second circuit really, or of course last race just took loads out of him. 

as of 18.18…

I thought this race looked between the top two in the market and this one shouldn’t be much bigger than Warren’s and based on what they’ve done the prices could be switched. I may have that wrong but this one looks like he’s still open to progress. He won well enough here LTO on the old course over slightly further, having been up in the van most of the way. The time was very good and and I wanted to be with him – he has guts, responds for pressure and stays well. This more galloping New Course may suit even more. He could still have a bit in hand. He surely won’t be far away here and he felt a couple of points too big. He nor his trainer could be in much better form.

Theatre Territory…with Sam’s claim she gets 24lb from the selection here and maybe that will tell. I couldn’t put anyone off a saver to cover the stake above but there’s a difference for a reason. The wind op may have worked wonders and she split some higher rated horses in that Novice chase LTO. But she is racking up the placed efforts and has to prove she has the stamina for this test. I can’t work out if she’ll improve for the step up or not, but it’s educated guessing to a point, and I don’t like doing that with 3s shots, especially over fences around here. IF the selection runs up to his new mark, or even the mark he won off LTO, she has a hell of a lot to find. These two may be 1-2 in a certain order.

I couldn’t have the rest at the odds. Coo Star Sivola’s profile suggests he wants much softer than the decent ground he’ll get here and he’s a few questions to answer now. Singfarmpayment cannot be trusted to put it in at the finish and I can leave him at single figure odds. He’s a bridle horse who doesn’t like to battle and will need the race to fall apart for him to take a hand for me. He may loom up next to the selection after the last but i’d expect Dicky to fight him off. I can’t think Rolling Dylan will be good enough and those that fell or PU LTO I can leave, too many questions and too inexperienced over fences for me. Cogry was well beaten by the selection LTO and i don’t know why that should be overturned. Doing Fine isn’t getting any younger and may need further. He seems to be a tad regressive now and will find easier races. He was 15L behind the selection LTO.

If Rock the Kasbah travels and jumps as he did LTO he will be in contention jumping the last. He’s the one to beat and I thought he could be a shorter price here. Theatre Territory is the main danger and Singlefarmpayment may look dangerous at some stage, it’s just whether he goes through with it.

That will be all for free tips on Friday.


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5 Responses

  1. I will put mine up tonight as I’m working all day tomorrow,and won’t even get too see the racing….
    11.50 roxyfet 16/1
    1.20 magic dancer 15/2
    1.55 midnight target 7/1
    2.30 el bandit 8/1
    3.40 the eaglehaslanded 11/1 4p
    Goodbye dancer 9/1 4p
    All ew
    Good luck

  2. The fav looks too short for me too in the 2.30, Josh. A perennial bridesmaid who’d prefer (a) more cut in the ground and (b) a shorter trip. She might well beat the pick, but the value in my eyes is with your choice. Hobbs is in good form, does well in Hc Chases at HQ and the sires stats for stayers are decent too.

    Fingers crossed, eh?

    1. Everything crossed! I think the price may be an in-built bias against ‘top weights’ and those from such lofty marks , thinking TT will just glide past. She should have 10lb+ in hand based on plenty of her placed efforts but year she’s yet to win over fences, enjoys placing, may want softer and stamina is an unknown- she’s yet to win beyond 17f and often just plugs on around 3m. This new course is far stiffer/more galloping than the Old and really will take some getting. She may hack up but 3s doesn’t seem value. This isn’t that deep for me, just hope Rock runs his race as I hope he could just outclass this lot. not impossible Dickie leads also – he had too much toe for Cogry LTO and I can’t think Waley-Cohen will be aggressive as he’ll want her to get the trip.

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