Members Daily Post: 13/12/18 (complete)

Test tips x5, Section 1 (complete), test zone, videos, updates

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Newcastle

12.40 – Moores Novelty  (micro’s class/TJC) 14 16/1 S2A UP

2.20 – Christmas in USA   (m class/TJC) 14 G1 8/1 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

2.55 –

Captain Mowbray  (HcCh) 14,30 H3 I1 G3 13/2 S4 S1+S5 UP

Fly Rory Fly  (m TJC) 14 22/1 S2A UP

Blakerigg  (all Hc’s)  w1 H3 2/1  WON 2/1>9/4 

 

Taunton

2.45 – Bang On  (all Hc’s, m TJC)  w1 H1 I3 6/1 UP

 

Warwick

1.55 –

Jarlath   (m class)   w1 H1 10/3 UP

Quarenta   (all Hc’s, m class)  ES+  G3 7/1  S3A  WON 7/1>5/2 

2.30 – March Is On   (all Hc’s, m class/LTO)  ES+ 12/1 S2 S3A 2nd 8/1 

 

Bonus Irish Stats

Tramore

3.10 – Rocky Silver  (HcCh)  w1 H3 11/2 WON 11/2>9/4 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago 

Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>> Welcome Email HERE>>>

Updated: The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18/19 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

More Welcome Info  HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +147)

 

No ‘Daily Tips’ today… some in the test below…

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (21/85,42p, +19.1 , all 1 point win, all odds) 

12.10 Newc – Murchison River – 7/2 (Lad/BV/Coral) 10/3 (others) 2nd 

12.40 Newc – Moores Novelty – 16/1 (bet365/BV/UniB) 14/1 (the rest) PU (something up with him I think)

1.35 Taunt – Mead Vale – 11/2 (gen) 4th hmm,an error down the back knocked him but he’s run his race, maybe does need 2m4f now, winner no shock as per write up, and one of Dunn’s biggies ran well in 2nd. 

1.55 War – Quarenta – 7/1 (bet365/BV/Uni/BetBright) 13/2 (the rest) WON 7/1>5/2 

2.55 Newc – Captain Mowbray – 15/2 (Skyb/BV/Coral/BetB) 7/1 (gen) UP 12/1…i’ll learn my lesson with these more exposed hold up chasers one day, awful run, shoddy ride – maybe neither helped each other with jumping, not that it mattered. The Richards horse improved for the trip, so a nice one for W1 albeit short. 

08.35…that’s all for today… write ups… 

 

Murchison River…well this day may be glorious or rather painful, we shall see. I think this race is about whether this one stays and how he handles the ground – if he does both, which clearly I think he will – then he wins this for me. My word it’s an awful race and he’s the only one on any recent form who’s shown an appetite for winning. The CP appeared to work wonders LTO at Leicester and the yard have hit some form. He was doing all of his best work late on there and got better the further he climbed up that hill. Newcastle isn’t as soft (officially!) as I thought it may be, good to soft, good in places, and I won’t make assertions as to his going preferences yet, and Leicester was soft enough down the back of the hurdles track I think – their hurdles course is very strange. He ran on the soft on the flat but was 3 and clearly hadn’t developed so I can’t use that as much of a guide. Today will tell us plenty but he won with loads to spare there and as if he could improve further for this trip- going up and down on the spot after the last may be enough against this bunch. Sam does well with those making a quick return and he is the one to beat here. There’s nothing else at the prices I want to be anywhere near but clearly if he doesn’t handle those two new conditions as expected, some other mediocre beast will take it. Four of them will hopefully need the run. I thought anything over 3s was a shade of value here- if his last win was over this trip/ground, he’d have been put in at 2s. He should also race handy, in a ‘no excuses’ position.

Moores Novelty – ‘the’ poke of the day and yes anything could happen here… i had a look at Alexander’s LTO PU stats and concluded that wasn’t a reason to be put off, price allowing. Since start 2012/PU LTO/Handicaps/The PU for horse returning 151-700 days>  9/37,14p, +72 BFSP… that makes some logical sense suggesting many of those PUs are because the horse wasn’t fit, at all. Also, those dropping 1/2 -4f from last run within those stats are 4/9,4p.  The trainer is in his best form I can remember – 4/21,7p the last 14 days – and this is a target track for his handicap hurdlers – 5/16,7p in C5 handicap hurdles at track – 5/6,5p when Lucy is on, and Alexander is 4/17,6p with all runners here in the last year. The horse… he drops in trip here and gets some easier ground at a more galloping track. His run LTO was interesting to a point, before they turned for home. That Perth novice hurdle run interested me also. You’d normally think such a race there is a weak affair but all the horses in front are rated much higher, 20lb+ of him now. His other runs at the likes of Kelso and Ayr were not as bad as appears either- again horses around him/in front rated much higher. This one may have taken time to grow, and maybe he’s a chaser of the future, but given all the above i’ll throw a dart at 14s generally, 16s even better if you can get it. The danger is Diggin Deep  who hacked up LTO in the race Moores Novelty ran in… this drop in trip may not suit but it is a more galloping track and despite his age he’s still open to improvement – but he has gone up 10lb. But I won’t be shocked if he follows up. I really couldn’t have the rest at the prices for one reason or another.

Mead Vale – another a bit like the first pick today- he’s an inform horse up against dross – based on what they’ve done on paper to date. There may well be a lurker (Pipes..?) both exposed and unexposed but this one won well LTO, racing prominently and staying on doggedly- if every horse had his attitude, as demonstrated by his head carriage , plenty would win many more races. He’s gone up in the weights but is the best horse in the race on what they have done and his jockeys 10lb ensures he has a nice racing weight – he isn’t the biggest and 11-12 would have probably weighed him down. He runs as if staying further and there isn’t much pace on paper in this so I expect him to be up there, and they may try and make all. He jumped well LTO also. 11/2 was 2 points too big to my eyes. Those of interest… well Gwalia isn’t over priced for one making handicap debut who needs to step forward and prove he can get his head in front. He’s unexposed and clearly interesting and wouldn’t be a shock winner. Williams isn’t prolific with handicap debutants and is 0/8,1p at Taunton in recent years with them. Delface is interesting after the wind op, which may have worked and any money would suggest so. Decent ground is a question for him. He finished behind Borak two starts back at Ffos Las, who the selection put in his place LTO when winning. The CP return and it is Pipe, so who knows, but you’re also taking fitness on trust. I can leave the King 3 year old for now at single figures but clearly unexposed. Alex Dunn… 3 in here, two of them stats quals below…the ship may have sailed on that front as she hit some form and has had a couple of decent winners for that angle inc one at 66/1 in recent days. Maraakib and Truckers Tangle are interesting to a point, and I wouldn’t put anyone off £2 BFSP for a laugh! She’s in form, and they are the type who just pop up every now and then for her, seemingly from nowhere. Both those two have so many questions you couldn’t tip them, but Maraakib is at least fit, his run LTO was after 70+ days when never put into the race, and he’s unexposed over hurdles, but looked regressive when last seen on the flat. But, Mead Vale is the one to beat and he’s still open to improvement, for his in form yard who do so well with LTO winners. 11/2 is too big on what we know, even if he tails off.

Quarenta – a fascinating one here who’s price should be much closer to Hobbs. I’ve watched that Chepstow race back and he was given a gentle introduction to chasing for me – as he should have been. Aidan wasn’t moving on him 3/4 out, when every other jockey in front was starting to ride- but I understand him not wanting to throw him into his fences, given his inexperience. It was his 2nd run back after an absence, which was after a few runs which suggested there was a problem. He does know how to win- which is a question for the fav- and he will appreciate this better ground. I thought 7s was overpriced and this is a target track for Jonjo- 5/22,9p in C4 handicap chases at the track last 5 years, 3/11,5p in 3m handicap chases here. The horse also has course form. I wanted to take on the Hobbs horse… he has yet to win a race and having watched him there’s something about the way he carried his head/ears at Chepstow which made me wonder if he’s a rogue under pressure or hasn’t yet learnt how to respond to his jockey. I could be talking nonsense there but he’s yet to win a race- clearly if the selection doesn’t step forward as hoped, he is the one to beat based on that run. He is unexposed and Dicky is back on. Jarlath is a W1 qualifier, as he won LTO! He’s more exposed than some but jumped well on the front end at the course there- the question is stamina which he has to prove and i think there will be stronger stayers in this. But if they fluff their lines then he may just keep going and maybe this trip will bring out more now he;s older/stronger. I can leave the 10 year old although he ran well at Huntingdon so no shock if he’s in there pitching, and I can just watch the 15 year old Paddy with a smile. Surely he couldn’t, on seasonal reappearance! What a legend of a horse.

Captain Mowbray… for the life of me i can’t work out why he’s 15/2 here. He’s fit, in form, jumps well, is very consistent over fences/this trip, stays and his yard are in form – he is a hold up horse which I never like over fences but 15/2 was enough to lure me in, especially given on the pace maps, being held up over fences at Newcastle isn’t a hindrance. Blakerigg isn’t overpriced at 9/4 but bolted up over shorter LTO- he has to prove he stays and that he can string two good runs together- he may do that, but at 9/4 i want to take him on – another for W1 and if i’m wrong with the tip clearly I hope he wins. I can leave Longsdon’s at the price who has to do more for me but is unexposed. Newtown Lad is a silly price at 5s given his recent form- even if he bolts up. The only way you could back him at that price is if speaking to his trainer personally and getting encouragement. Too much to prove at the moment. Boston Spray- oh come on, 8/1 for a horse who likes to clout a fence, fall and be PU. Yes he has a good trainer but on what we know you’d want bigger than that. Well I would. I can live with him winning at 8s given his form profile. If he gets it all together then good on him. Orioninverness has to prove he stays, which I don’t think he does, and he’s a C5 chaser. Whiskey is 10 and will hopefully need the run but has won fresh- Brian Hughes maybe had the choice, or The Don is giving Lorcan some valuable experience, but I can leave him.  EDIT…I can’t have the two Alexander horses on what they’ve done and if one wins, so be it. Fly Rory Fly is a big odds strategy qualifier so I won’t mind if he wins, backed from 25s into 12s in places – I thought fitness was a question but the blinkers return and he’s unexposed.  If Captain runs his race he won’t be far away – there’s a chance all those in front fall in a hole from 2 out and he’ll just gallop past. They can ride him too cold at times so hopefully they are not too stupid, but they clearly feel he has to run through horses to be seen to best effect.

That’s the lot, plenty of logic, every horse gone over with a fine tooth comb, as have all the oppo in every race. What will be will be 🙂 gulp. Best of luck.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat/AW

The Doyler

5.45 Chelm – Divine Image – Evens 

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

2.10 T – Agamemmon 11/1  UP (he’s a rogue) 

3.15 T – Valseur Du Granval 18/1 

Tom Lacey 

12.50 W – Johnbb 12/1  3rd 14/1 (he’s got some handicaps in him, big baby/a bit keen/better as race went on) 

1.25 W – Jester Jet 4/6 2nd 

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide) 

2.55 N – Boston Spray 17/2  UP

A Dunn (25/1< guide) 

1.35 T – Maraakib 16/1 UP/ Truckers Tangle  66/1 2nd 25/1 

3.50 T – Getadollar 10/1 

Autumn Trainers

3.50 T – Dollnamix  11/2 

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Trainer to Follow 

1.45 N – The Vocalist (11/1< guide) 4/1 UP

12.50 W – Johnbb 12/1 3rd 14/1 

LTO winning trainers

1.35 T – Mead Vale (12/1< guide) 11/2 4th 

Jockeys/chasers

3.05 W – Reckless Behaviour (9/1< best) 12/1 

LTO winning hurdlers

12.10 N – Murchison River 3/1 2nd 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW VIDEO: Section 1 / 4 strategies explained…it’s only 15 minutes, first 10 cover it and then I think I just repeat myself… this is for anyone who still doesn’t understand section 1 or the strategies. About 70 of you have hit play so far and I hope it’s been of some use, even to older members…

 

NEW Video… 

In this video I take a look back, which I haven’t done in a while. I focus on G Moore’s 16/1>6/1 winner at Huntingdon on Sunday, Cougar’s Gold from Tuesday and a look at Pat Phelan’s 20>10/1 winner at Fontwell… the first two are stats quals that I should have been closer to putting up in the test, and there’s plenty to learn from the profile of the last named. As always the intention is for my own reflective purposes, wrapped up in the realisation that I need to up my game. I look at ‘hot form’, excusing runs, and those unexposed types ‘doing something different’. I also touch on the power of HorseRaceBase ratings in handicap chases and more generally, as a guide… all below… yes I aimed for under 10 minutes, then under 20, and I ended up on 26, but hopefully some of you find it interesting and it may help with your own efforts… comments always welcome… 

 

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RESULTS update… to Note I have updated the main jumps strategies/results link in The Key above… of most use maybe the updated Test Zone figures etc. 

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Saturday…looking ahead... The Caspian Caviar (a favourite cheap snack for us all I assume! 🙂 ) Gold Cup will be the feature..hopefully a decent field size, still 18 in,albeit a handful dominating the market… I’ll dig out some stats/trends as a guide on Thursday afternoon…there’s another C2 handicap chase, the C2 mares handicap – I may cast an eye over both. And there’s a C2 3m+ handicap chase at Donny, but that may cut up. I suspect any ‘big race’ tipping efforts will focus on those four races…although there are a few interesting ones on Friday at Chelts also.  

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

40 Responses

    1. yep unlucky, certainly the place element and at 25s… initially thought he was winning that, having watched it back not so sure, but hard to tell, 3 in a line at last inc the winner who hadn’t been asked a question, but yours was getting better the further he went, as breeding would suggest. You’ll get your money back with interest at some point, he’s better than his opening mark. Good run from Jonjo’s who’ll probably come on for it, may want softer and runs as if getting further also. Had a good attitude.

      1. Would be interested to know what it was in-running, guessing odds on. Seemed to be gaining and gaining.

        1. Well he’d hit the front just I think but slowed into it, and the eventual winner certainly hadn’t been asked a question, i suspect he’d have stayed on well, and would have been 3rd at worst, a bit of guessing after that really, not one of those where he would have definitely won, but still frustrating for Nick, don’t think he’d have been far away.

  1. nothing i really want to get my teeth into today but there’s 3 i’ll be having a go at minimum stakes and a 50p ew patent
    Warwick 2-30 Druids Folly 13-2
    Taunton 1-35 Silver Quay 12-1
    Taunton 2-45 Khanisari 12-1
    all 1/4 pt ew

  2. wide awake far to early so i thought i would go through the Newcastle card for a bit of fun: nb i’m not risking any of my hard earned on these.
    12-10 Murchison River
    12-40 Samtu
    1-15 Diger Daudaie
    1-45 Reivers Lad
    2-20 Christmas In Usa
    2-55 Captain Mowbray
    3-25 All Hail Caesar

  3. I see the unbeaten Machiato returns after a long lay off in the 12.50 at Warwick. The horse is currently 33/1 + and its trainer Ian Williams may have got the horse back to run a race? We shall see.

    Michael Scudamore has a handicap chaser running in the 2.55 Newcastle. The horse has a number of P’s in its form and so I would not be interested unless it gets to 8/1+.

    Good luck.

    1. Machiato a great spot! David Massey (Daily Punt) has commended it today, was on his Ten To Follow a couple of years ago.

  4. Hi, being still very new i wasn’t sure whether i should post here, or reply on the date where i wrote before and got a very helpful reply. Here goes;
    Ref COLINS AW BETS, i first wanted to say thanks for the very helpful results summary, explanations, and suggestions on Betting Bank etc! Very grateful for that. Also just wanted to ask roughly when (ie approx time) any daily selections might normally be posted? Also is it best to assume that there are no selections on a specific day appearing by a certain time that it is a ‘blank day’. I notice there is AW racing today and hence my question. Many thanks John.

    1. Oh always reply on today’s post John, its highly unlikely to be seen otherwise! 🙂

      Colin usually posts in the morning, by 10-11am latest if memory is correct – best stopping by at some point after that if you can. Colin will usually post a comment saying no bets, if that’s the case- not many blank days from his Colins Bets. All those who post generally have lives to live haha – but most will roughly be in the same routine etc. Nick is usually the evening before Mon-Friday – he has a proper job- weekends can be during the morning.

      Any of my own tips will always be by 10am Mon-Friday which is the time cut off for any post, I try and get them up between 8.30-9.30am in terms of the test tips in section 2. I don’t tip anything the evening before, or very rarely. Big race tips at weekend/big race days, would be by 11am at weekends which is cut off for all weekend posts – but always try as soon as possible. And having responded to feedback I try and put up all tips in one batch – but that can depend on the morning etc.

      Josh

    2. Hi John
      Now that racing is starting early it can be from 9.30 to 10.30 approx time of putting bets up,Josh kindly mentioned that we have a life and on the odd occasion can be a little later depending on a night out,so after 10.30 keep checking the board.
      The BANK is the most important aspect of betting by far and only thing that is guaranteed is a losing run at some time.
      Colin.

  5. COLINS BETS
    Chelmsford
    6.15 Malaysian Boleh BOG 10/1
    6.45 Firmament BOG 9/4
    8.45 Your Band BOG 9/4

    ELITE BETS

    2.45 Taunton That’s A Given BOG 11/1

    1. Hi David, ah yes apols, that would be confusing… updated now…

      1. Yep an ES+ next to his name which = S3A . I appear to have missed tying that, but pleased you know what constitutes an S3A.

      2. I mistakenly added a H3, when it should have been a G3… I put the score through to show that, rather than initially deleting which I thought may lead some to think they were seeing things, but maybe I should have just done that, as it is now.

      Apols.

  6. Just the one for me over jumps…..
    N/c 1.15 Manetti…….. 10.0

    Not looked at Chelmsford yet so will post again here later if I find anything.

  7. I shall be having an e/w dabble and place only as is my norm on :

    1.05 Taunton 7 Le Ligerien (FR) Nolan, Mr M G Hobbs, P J 16/1

    has popped up in no less than 4 of my hrb micro angles .. normally a good sign 🙂

    gl/gb 🙂

      1. Well done George, yep a very good priced place at those odds better than most winners!! I know you have a lot of quals/angles etc, but posting up those that just hit 3/4+ may be useful etc. Good job.

  8. what is going on with Betfair this morning? is it to do with “Best Price Execution” , i’m getting bets that are going to be settled at bfsp and i can’t change them. bearing in mind i place my bets the night before i’ll ask for a price that is roughly 50% higher than bookies are offering at the time and when i get back in the morning i’ll check to see if bets have been matched and if any odds asked for are unrealistic i’ll lower accordingly, but 3 bets are showing matched at bsp ! can anyone shed any light on this please.

    1. I’d just wait and see it out sadly, some chat on twitter that they’ve got some problems today. I’m not sure what we can do about it, suspect somewhere in Tc and Cs that with exchange they have every right to settle everything at BFSP, so it is what it is today sadly. Looks like they’ve got a problem. They’re sportsbook operation is separate to exchange tech i’d have thought so one shouldn’t be causing a problem for the other.

    1. quite! I was counting my money on jockey language… jockey may have good reason- ie it’s softer on inside, but he’s gone very very wide the whole way round there, and used up a load of gas on that move he made on a bend, moving into straight – only beaten 2L and he must have gone 1-4f further than anything else in contention come end. Unsurprisingly when he asked the question after the last, there wasn’t much left to give. Winner has stayed on well, but were he tucked in or more patient and waited until top of straight, he may have won that’fought him off. That’s racing. He must have had his reasons for those tactics. He isn’t done winning yet, interesting NTO – winner was unexposed, and the rest nowhere. He ran as if he stayed the trip fine, but fine margins through the race, wide trip/i think he pressed go – fast/then slow, at the wrong point.

  9. Two winners in two days Josh so making it a bit of a habit mate! Nice to see you also spotting winners where others seem to flounder and are left confused.

    1. Ha cheers pal, the eyes slowly getting into focus, and my replay/race watching skills are getting better, especially jockey body language – as was the case with him at Chepstow and yesterday’s winner- for correct reasons neither was overly harsh as they turned for home, and clear they were both better than runs on paper for various reasons. That jonjo winner jumps a fence very well and plenty up his sleeve, he could have a nice chase in him.

      Ah – don’t be so harsh on yourself!!! 🙂 haha. It’s a tough game, i’ve been floundering (well maybe that’s harsh, but not in form anyway) for a while but nice to actually beat SP a few times and horses running well/in contention over the last etc. Unexposed in code are generally the ones to focus on. I’m reading it all a bit better, no substitute for hard work.

  10. emm … that was nice … i had messrs pj hobbs & co down as one’s to watch as per josh’s many moons ago notes for warwick nh flat races 🙂 ………. that went well 🙂
    brilliant work and notes josh .. not going unappreciated 🙂

    gl/gb 🙂

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