Members Daily Post: 12/12/18 (complete)

Tips x4, Section 1 (complete), test zone , new video…

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Hexham

12.50 –

Well Above Par  (micro going) G3 9/2 WON 9/2 

Royal Salute (HcCh) 4/1  2nd 9/1 

1.50 – Onderun (HcCh) 9/1  UP 

2.20 –

Misfits  (m going )  w2 H3 I3 15/2  2nd 11/2 

Kalaharry  (m dist) w2 G1 10/1 S1 S2 WON 10/1>8/1 (BFSP 9.38) 

3.20 –

Ask The Tycoon  (going) H3 G1 3/1 UP

Beyondtemptation  (HcH) I3 14/1 S2 S5 UP 25/1 

 

Leicester

2.30 – Cotswold Way  (all Hc’s) 14,30 w2 w1 H1 I1 G1 6/4 S4 WON 6/4>Evens 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago 

Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>> Welcome Email HERE>>>

Updated: The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

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Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

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Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/322,100p, -22.2 ) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +147)

 

Daily Tips

2.20 Hex – Pershing Missile – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP 14/1..he was woeful! Really poor run, and not sure why that bad. One i’ll track as he must have wins in him at some point. That run was too bad to be true. 

The same amount of thinking goes into the test ‘best of the stats quals’ below as it does into these ones, but I thought i’d get off the fence given I looked at this race thanks to two stats quals above, and after much consideration fancied two of them. Rather than just mention this one in passing below I thought i’d tip the poor soul. This one is unexposed in handicaps and there should be more to come one day. He’s also doing a few things different today… he steps up in trip, gets a tongue tie and also cheekpieces… I had a look at the trainer and he’s 4/16,7p +56 BFSP in handicaps when applying these for the first time, in his whole training career. It suggests he’s pretty picky about doing so and maybe they’ve tested them at home. His run LTO was on his seasonal reappearance and first run after a wind op. He ran as if needing it and also as if 20f on GS is inadequate. That was also a much deeper race – he carried 10-12 there, but is top weight on 11-12 here- a much lesser class 4 than that race. Those fighting out the finish were 115/120+ horses that day. Woods is also back on and he is the main man for this yard, generally. McPherson doesn’t sent many on the 281 mile trip but tends to make them count – 3/8,5p in handicap hurdles here in the last 5 years. The horse runs as if worth a go over this distance – he plugged on in heavy ground bumpers for Noel Meade (who’d tend to source stayers in the making) which can be an indication they will be stayers in time. On his first run for this trainer in April he came 2nd to Tottertown at Hereford, over 16f, in heavy. He was well backed that day but bumped into one- that horse is now in the high 120s. That race produced a few winners since as did the Ludlow race he ran in NTO – the horse in front and behind him there have since won. Again he ran there if a tad one paced over 2m5f. 2m7f at this stiff track may be ideal for him. Of course he may not stay and may not lug this 11-12 around, but I thought 10s was worth a go given this profile and I didn’t like the top of the market, but more on that below.

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (20/80,40p, +16.1 , all 1 point win, all odds) 

1.50 Hex – Onderun – 10/1 (gen) UP…ran like an out of form horse, the ground is testing enough, jumping a bit scratchy, he’ll make all at some point this season and it was a much better run than his reappearance. 

2.20 Hex – Kalaharry –  WON 10/1>8/1 .. just, blimey that would have been painful if misfits hung on, benefitting from a glorious ride as he swept around turning for home, nearly won it for him. Thankfully this one stayed on well in the ground and had a bit in hand, just! A welcome S1 winner also. 

3.20 Hex – Beyondtemptation – 18/1 (BetB) 16/1 (gen) UP 25/1, ran as drift suggested, blasted off but faded before turning for home. There will be other days for her although she is 10 but enough weak races at Hexham and she’ll make all at some point, hopefully on when she does. 

posted 09.06… write ups

Onderun… This one either badly needed it at Ayr or for the moment he’s just out of sorts. At his best he’s the best horse in this race and I don’t think anything else in here could do what he did at Carlisle four starts back or Perth 3 starts back. Something went wrong next time, possibly the ground or his exertions from the previous race, breaking down. It can’t have been overly serious but you never know how that affects a horse mentally. He drops into a class 5 here, and ‘should’ hopefully get an easy lead. He’s a very good jumper at his best and he clearly stays further. I thought 10s was worth a go, even more so given trainer/jockey are 7/21,10p with handicap chasers here.  He has the best form of this lot and it’s just whether he runs to the level of 3/4 starts back. He makes all and wins if he does. If he doesn’t run his race then it’s open enough..Inchcolm is in superb form but niggles in this ground/at this track – but he may just keep going when the rest have stopped. Alto is a character I think- he often loses his place and runs as if wanting 4m+, but then sometimes runs as he did LTO. I think he’ll appreciate the going more so than Inchcolm but both seem short enough to me. They are class 5 chasers, and the selection is a C4 chaser, but of course he may not run his race.

Kalaharry… one from section 1 here and I thought he was worth chancing at 10s/11s… it’s only his 5th handicap hurdle start and the only time he’s run over this trip, which was at Hexham, he’s won. He finished like a horse who could have won by further that day, doing all his best work late. Hexham form is always tricky to weigh up – most of it is dross – so always some caution but he look overpriced to me. Again I’ll assume he needed the run after 529 days off last time and maybe he’ll need another – but he ran ok there. The jockey wasn’t hard on him and 3 to 2 out he was still going ok, before tiring. He looked outpaced a tad also. The ground is a question, but it’s an unknown really. He went ok on it LTO. Maybe he won’t handle it and does need better ground, but you can’t say that with any confidence yet and the price allowed the play for me. There should be more to some from him at some point, i don’t think he’s hit his ceiling yet. I really don’t like the top of the market – Nemean Lion and Lawtop Legend have questions over the going- this could be hard work today. Cottonvale is an 18 race maiden and i’m not sure this trip/ground is what he wants. He’s a bit of an unknown but he does’t appear to like winning. Williams may find the key and at some point he may look well handicapped, maybe that’s today but I can leave at those odds. Misfits is a chaser really, 0/10,0p over hurdles, 5 in handicaps. I can leave him, he can be moody also but Lucinda’s always a danger here when the mud is flying as they tend to gallop and stay better than most. I can live with him winning unbacked, as he just hasn’t shown anything of note over timber. I’ve mentioned Pershing Missile above… the other interesting one is Espoir Moriviere.. he may be worth a nibble but he’s just shown very little as yet, inc LTO here. It may be that all he’s ever wanted is bottomless ground and that could be a reason for big improvement. He has nothing on his back either and he may show himself to be better than 79 at some point. This is only his 6th start and I considered him, but it’s too much guessing I think. I’d have liked to have seen more LTO, unless the ground was just too lively. McPherson’s has shown much more, hence the 25lb difference in marks. He’s a danger though esp as he’s being backed. Those three – the two tips and Dobbins, are the most interesting in here by some way.

Beyondtemptation…well she is just too big at 16s/18s, as she is every time she rocks up here at that price… I will assume she needed the run LTO and in any case is better over this trip. She just knows how to win and is the only horse in the race proven in all race conditions…going/class/track/trip…multiple times. The rest have to improve in one or more of those areas. She will try and make all also. Well that’s the usual approach, when she’s on a going day. She’s a prolific winner and has won at a higher level. She’s back on a good mark and the 7lb will help further…interesting that Willmott is on as I think his boss is Russell, and she’s got the well backed Fav- Ask The Tycoon– He was probably worth a saver at 10/3, but is shortening- he’s unexposed, and may well relish this trip/track…he looks like a dour stayer and may just grind this lot into the ground- if the selection is a1, he will have to chase her. Were he 9/2+ i’d have tipped him I suspect and maybe I have him wrong and 10/3 will still look good. But  I’d have it between those two and can’t leave the bonny mare at this price. Towerburn beat dross LTO, is up 10lb, up in class and still out the handicap. I don’t think he beat anything there and can leave him at 9/2, but he has a light weight and is in form, that can count for plenty in these conditions. Beyondtemptation has won twice at 16s so I don’t mind if she stays around that price- i’ll be concerned if she goes off 18s+, as it may be an indication that Haynes is running her into fitness on the track.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat/AW

J Osborne/Headgear

3.40 K – Ricochet 11/2 2nd 13/8

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW VIDEO: Section 1 / 4 strategies explained…it’s only 15 minutes, first 10 cover it and then I think I just repeat myself… this is for anyone who still doesn’t understand section 1 or the strategies. About 70 of you have hit play so far and I hope it’s been of some use, even to older members…

 

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NEW Video… 

In this video I take a look back, which I haven’t done in a while. I focus on G Moore’s 16/1>6/1 winner at Huntingdon on Sunday, Cougar’s Gold from Tuesday and a look at Pat Phelan’s 20>10/1 winner at Fontwell… the first two are stats quals that I should have been closer to putting up in the test, and there’s plenty to learn from the profile of the last named. As always the intention is for my own reflective purposes, wrapped up in the realisation that I need to up my game. I look at ‘hot form’, excusing runs, and those unexposed types ‘doing something different’. I also touch on the power of HorseRaceBase ratings in handicap chases and more generally, as a guide… all below… yes I aimed for under 10 minutes, then under 20, and I ended up on 26, but hopefully some of you find it interesting and it may help with your own efforts… comments always welcome… 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

30 Responses

  1. Anyone had experience of the portal ‘Betfan’. I signed up to a service called ‘The Formula’ and paid £150 for 3 months. Received an email saying that The Formula were no longer using Betfan and that I could pick another tipster from them. I’m not interested in any of the others and just want a refund but theyve failed to respond to my email. Wonder if anyone experienced similar?

    1. I have some past experience of Betfan. Nathan Lane is the main man there. I had some free trials with them. Each Way Hits was a good one. I had the trial for ages, as well as a couple of others for a while. I ceased to receive them a few weeks ago but likely just coincidence? I know Pete Ling at Smart Betting Club has done a fair bit of reviewing their products. If you do not hear back soon contact him at info@smartbetting club.com or email me at mcolwell1959@aol.com and I will speak with him.

      Good luck.

      1. Cheers Martin, i thought you may have some insight.

        Each way hits is one that I was considering to use if they say i have no choice but to use a different service. Their proofing is all over the place with all this 5 point malarkey etc and theres not many I fancy- have tried Lucky 7s before and prices are total unachievable

        1. I’ve just finished an underwhelming three month trial with Each Way Hits, the tips just about broke even but the prices quoted are a joke. They usually send them around 6.30pm the night before quoting 365 or Paddy who are out of line. Price is usually cut within seconds.

          1. Thats good to know- i won’t use them then. I dont bother with any that send their tips out at 6 oclock as their proofing is nonsense in my eyes. Thanks for the heads up

          2. I’ve had dealings in the past with Betfan
            & they are an honest bunch, so no fears on that front. They do tip the night before – but for me that is what I much prefer. I did end up making a profit with them, but do not use them at present.

          3. I had the Each Way Hits trial for about 18 months and it was plus 50 points up for me but the last few months have been moderate. I had it as a free trial as I gave them feedback regularly but they must have got fed up with what I was saying?? I am not recommending this or any other tipping service.

    2. Betfan have been around a long time and have always seemed reasonably reputable. I usually find that refunds are forthcoming from sites if you badger them sufficiently. They need future custom.
      I would not take on a Betfan service after my experience of trying their flagship tipster, Lucky 7 Naps. I was rarely able to get the odds advised, even when I sat and waited for the email. Although the odds had usually been obtainable briefly, at one or two books, at some earlier time. I gave up after they advised a selection with odds from Bet365 when I knew that Bet365 had been offline for at least two hours. I think Geegeez found similar frustrations when they reviewed.

    3. I’d recommend Early Odds, 3 to 4 tips out c10pm night before, one point win only, I have made 112 points YTD 2018, & 115 points in 2017. I can vouch for their proofing on their site. Odds are available. I think they are like any betting service they will refund if you ask twice!

      1. Thanks, used them before and thought he was very good then suddenly started sending 10+ tips a day which just wasnt achievable so I binned them. Found plenty of winners though

  2. there are 2 out tomorrow that i put up lto who both in hindsight probably needed the run but confidence in them is not high so i’m just having a 1/4 pt ew.
    Hexham.
    2-20. Pershing Missile 10-1
    3-20. Beyondtemptation 10-1

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    H 1.20 – Paper Roses on 4th run @ 10/3
    L 11.40 – Give Him Time on 7th run @ 33
    L 12.40 – Maazel on 2nd run @ 16
    L 3.10 – Barrsbrook on 5th run @ 11/2
    K 6.45 – Sunblazer on 2nd run @ 5/2
    Festival
    L 12.10 – Zoraya on 3rd run @ 12
    L 1.10 – Keyser Soze on 4th run @ 15/2
    ………..Sea Fox on 3rd run @ 18
    3m+
    H 1.50 – Onderun on 3rd run @ 10
    GL

  4. COLINS BETS

    Lingfield
    11.40 Bamako Du Chatelet BOG 14/1
    12.10 Ambient BOG 17/2
    2.40 Pivotal Flame BOG 2/1

    ELITE BETS

    No bet

    Colin

  5. Morning All,
    I’m another who just joined on Josh’s recent recruitment drive so just wanted to post a quick hello. Very impressed so far, not only with the effort that Josh obviously puts in but the effort that many other members put in, it has a real community feel about it. I look forward to exchanging idea with you all in the coming months.
    Mike

    1. Hi Mike, thanks for giving it a go and saying hello, always appreciated. I’m glad the community feel comes across, it is certainly that and as well as everything else that ticks along over time, it’s probably the club’s best feature! You get nowhere in this game without hard graft, and that’s what i’m here for, as soon as you step off the gas, there are problems, and in truth a lot of my recent tipping efforts need some work and the only way forward is always hard work, the harder you work the luckier you get – well that may be nonsense but i’ll keep believing it! Fingers crossed the four main strategies keep ticking along, and what with all the shrewdies who post there is a lot of profit to be mined and fun to be had over time, with the usual peaks and many troughs, but thankfully the winners far outweigh the losers, across the board, and over time.
      Any ideas, posts, questions, discussion points are always welcome and encouraged in these parts, even the polite constructive criticism.
      Happy punting, Josh

  6. COLINS BETS
    Kempton
    7.15 Zahirah BOG 4/1 Unibet stand alone at 9/2
    7. 15 Viola Park BOG 3/1

    Sorry somehow missed putting these plenty of time before the race so will claim these in my records time now10.09

  7. Just by chance lads would any body that has the tools be able to tell me if backing David Pipes in class 3 chases prove profitable over the last 3 years ?
    Thank you if someone can enlighten me
    Aaron

    1. Hi Aaron, in short, no.
      off the top of my head, ahem! 🙂
      Since start of 2014, C3…
      handicap chase: 29/173,60p, -8 SP, +9 BFSP, AE 1.06 (so 6% above market expectations)
      Handicap Novice chase: 7/45,18p, +9 BFSP, AE 0.84 – 16% below market expectations
      ‘chase’ / beginners chase / Novice chase: 17/33,19p, +5 SP, +5 BFSP, AE 1.28

      Some ok numbers there, as starting points, but backing blind questionable albeit suspect many well backed

      Class 4 handicaps/chases (inc novice hncps) 23/115, 40p, +27 SP, +41 BFSP, AE 1.15

      He’s a hard yard to get right with any systematic approaches I think.
      IN handicap/chases he’s had the most winners in C3, due to having the most runners, compared to other classes. Not sure there’s too much in it on that front, systematically anyway.

      Josh

  8. Thanks very much Josh I appreciate you going above and beyond with his stats across all the class 3 chases I really should of said caps but regardless it’s a defitive no ha ha
    Thanks again
    Aaron

    1. oh that was less than 5 minutes with my head stuck in horseracebase, which is always open on my browser during the day, along with this post for comments and the emails. all part of the service 🙂
      but yea, systematically it’s a no. And actually 2014 was the best year by far and not been great since.
      One of the few ways in is with the actual owners I think- and mainly Professor Caroline Tissdale (the green and red, Vieux Lion rouge etc) and also the orange/blue star (she’s a partner in that ownership group – ie Warthog at Sandown) – she’s his main owner by far in terms of money spent on horses I think, albeit the odd other one – The Know The Score colours that just won at Hexham- that horse cost £380k – those types of owners he has to keep happy and can still train them when he has a good one. The rest of them are rather hard to predict etc. But when those colours all turn up in big races/or even minor ones, i’d like to thin you’d be more sure of a good run, but I could be wrong.
      Josh

      1. I find that simple correlations such as trainer, handicap, and class, are soon exposed as soon as a trainer has a good year. After that they are either over backed or at best bobbing around the break even line. It just demonstrates to me how efficient the market is at absorbing these edges that are so easily exposed by all the information technology we use these days.

        You have to dig a lot deeper to find angles that stay the distance these days.

        1. Yep agree with that, but can always be a good starting point or set in which to dig, looking at any number of factors more linked to why the horse may improve today etc. Also why I like and have some faith in the ‘ratings fusion’ approach also. I do always think if a trainer angle is too simple, and just rely on that, you may be asking for trouble longer term, but then there are some simple approaches which market doesn’t appear to have taken account of yet, such as Burke at Southwell as posted by martin/gerry yesterday, and when combined with the trainer being in form, and some further digging, can be potent. But yep i’d agree with your general points there for sure

  9. The trick really is to get on an angle when the vein is yielding gold and move on when it appears to be drying up.Tom Dascombe was the man to follow for a few years at Haydock but the flat season just gone the market caught up,he didn’t have a stellar season but there weren’t any value in his horses,all his runners were close to the top of the market,Fergal O’Briens yard could have been backed blindly for a season or two but now they are opening much shorter than their chances.Only a small number of people invest any time or research into their bets and the big betting companies are only interested in the bottom line,go into any betting shop and the real sports are in a pokey hole with the big screens populated with cartoons,and that is how they want it.And some of the punters are still looking for AP on the cards

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