Members Daily Post: 11/12/18 (complete)

Test x3, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Fontwell

12.40 –

Lee Side Lady  (HcH)  ES+ 8/1 S3A 3rd 7/1 

Ballyantics  (HcH, m runs)  ES+ G3 9/1 S3A  S1 UP 16/1 (30.00 BFSP) 

2.10 – Bramblebrook (m dist) H3 I3 G3 2/1 S4 UP

3.10 –

Bears Rails  (m dist)  w2 I1 3/1 UP

Opechee  (m dist) 14 G3 14/1 S1 S2 UP

Orchestrated  (m dist) 14 I3 14/1 S2 S5 UP

3.40 – Blue April  (all Hc’s) 14,30 I1 7/1 2nd 

 

Uttoxeter

1.00 –

Solo Saxophone (HcH) ES+ H1 I3 4/1 S3A# UP

Antunes   (HcH, mTJC)  ES+ H3 I1 G3 6/5 S3A# S4 WON 6/5>Evens 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago 

Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>> Welcome Email HERE>>>

Updated: The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>> (updated to END NOV 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

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More Welcome Info  HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/321,100p, -21.2 – on hold) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +147)

None.

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (19/77,39p, +8.1 , all 1 point win, all odds) 

12.40 Font – Lee Side Lady – 8/1 (gen) 3rd 7/1… ran ok, maybe not as testing as assumed, the proper unexposed one hacked up sadly, 9/2 out to 8s, which is prob a price you could overlook some of the unknowns, mainly proper soft etc. Ran well on seasonal reappearance. Plenty to take from that winners profile in a race like that, decent yard, etc. Another place for me. She ran better there, and if well placed will win again at Fontwell this year in a muddy C5. 

1.10 Font- Robin Deuz Pois – 9/2 (gen) (5s in places) UP 7/2…hmm, poor, never really going a tap, not sure if ground, and off day, not good enough, didn’t like track or all of the above. Didn’t jump as well as LTO. One to forget about there, poor. 

3.40 Font- Blue April– 7/1 (gen) 2nd, never nearer, well beaten by a handicap blot it would appear.

that’s all for today’s ‘best of the stats quals test’, 09.10, write ups on the way…

 

Lee Side Lady… a ‘been there and done it’ more exposed one here but she seems to save her best for fairly tight LH tracks and especially this track. No others are proven in race conditions and a few of them have questions about handling this ground. Fontwell is a bit of a nightmare with going sticks/the ground, a reading of 4.5 here has been very soft/heavy before (Uttoxeter is 7.3 and soft!) and it’s one area amongst many our sport needs to sort out. It’s so prehistoric. I’ll assume it’s testing enough and this one will relish conditions. In handicap hurdles on soft/heavy she’s 2/5,4p on the going, 2/4 in the class, 2/4,3p at the track. I liked the fact Noel was back on given he’s 6/15,10p on Mulholland’s handicap hurdlers here, 4/6,5p when it’s soft. The question is whether she’s just out of sorts but her mark is dropping, she’s well handicapped again and ran ok at Newton Abbot two starts back in a better race. She rarely runs RH and that Exeter run was ok to a point, before then going up and down on the spot about two out. That was after 44 days off and I wonder if NM has primed her for a return here. They tried chasing which didn’t work as she is fairly small and it could have taken her two runs back over timber to sharpen up. It could be she’s just properly out of form and it will be another point loaned back but if she ran to her best here, she’d outrun these odds and be bang there over the last. Snazz Man is worth taking on after his break for a yard not known for readying them, Hier Encore needs to prove he knows how to win and soft+ is a question. Those comments apply to No No Juliet but she is at least more unexposed than most so may go ok. Some nibbles for Ballyantics and it would be fitting for me to pick the wrong one from this yard but he is now 0/13 and the CP need to work wonders. I’d have thought Noel would have had the choice. Anyway, we shall see if a return to these conditions can spark her back to life. I’ll pay at 8s to find out. The yard are a bit hit and miss at the moment but a few placed horses in recent days and many unplaced horses sent off at big odds.

Robin Deuz Pois…she’s a big mare and unexposed in general and over fences. She ran ok LTO and did jump well. She runs as if she will appreciate this extra 2.5f or so and did best of the rest behind an inform/unexposed one at Huntingdon. The yard are going well enough and I thought Paddy may try and make all, or at least be up there. There’s a chance this track doesn’t suit but the rest have even more questions for me. C Mann’s horse is short enough given his jumping is suspect but if he gets it altogether under NF then he would go close. The Frost horse has major questions on the going, but is at least in form. The others have even more to prove. 9/2 seemed fair enough to my eyes and she was well backed LTO.

Blue April…well there were stats galore for this one linked to the trainer and trainer/jockey and his best run/career win came over CD. Again he’s proven in the mud where many are not and there’s a chance Schofield is aggressive and tries to make all on this one. He’s run ok after a break before but fitness is a question. Scott is 6/15,10p with handicappers returning 60+ days here which was enough for me at the prices, especially given the yard are red hot- 5/12,9p in the last 14 days. He’s 6/18,10p all runners here the last year, 7/26,11p with Schofield up on all runners the last 5 years and Schofield rides the track well, 6/23,10p all rides in the last year. At 7s I was happy to throw a dart. Briac PU on seasonal reappearance, fell next time and has an inexperienced pilot on board so I can leave him, albeit the young jock rode his first winner on his last ride. Dan Gun is now 0/10,0p and has a question over soft. That makes 7/2 seem short enough and while there should be more to come, I can leave him at those odds. Sky Full of Stars is the main danger and should go well- he’ll like the ground but he could still get outpaced around here. Tom C may be more aggressive and he is the right fav, and the one to beat on paper I think. He’s consistent and will keep galloping when many may have given up.

With any luck there’s at least one winner there. We shall see.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan(14/1< guide)

1.10 F – Robin Deuz Pois 9/2 UP 7/2

3.10 F – Invicta Lake 9/1 UP

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers 

3.00 Uttox – Cougars Gold (9/1<) 10/3 WON 10/3>7/2 

LTO Winning Hurdlers

12.30 U – Stop Talking – 6/4 WON 6/4> Evens 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NEW VIDEO: Section 1 / 4 strategies explained (again 🙂 ) … on it’s way…it’s only 15 minutes, first 10 cover it and then I think I just repeat myself… this is for anyone who still doesn’t understand section 1 or the strategies. 

You can watch HERE>>>

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

29 Responses

  1. Karl Burke all weather – 8 runners at Southwell. He is in fair form at present and could spring a nice winner or two?

    11.50 Fflur 11/4, Sylviacliffs 12/1, George Hastings 10/1;
    12.20 Absollutio 18/1;
    2.20 Angel Palanas 7/1
    2.50 Helen Sherbet 6/1, Golden Guide 22/1
    3.20 Mametz Wood 4/1.

    Likely some drift on these early prices.

    1. Agree there Martin,

      If we get anywhere close to last years results should be some fun on the sand again.Has a lot of runners tomorrow so I had a look at the sweet spots on aw generally to cut down number of bets

      2yo 7f maidens/novices
      3yo 7f-1m1f maiden/novice
      4yo+ 6f-1m1f Handicaps

      12.20 Absoluto
      2.20 Angel Palanas
      2.50 Helen Sherbert( won twice last winter for us at big prices)

      1. Well done for your efforts.

        I also think with Karl Burke that he can bang in a big priced winner or a place on the all weather. Perhaps an angle would be where the runners are 10/1 plus? We had the day where we had the 40/1 and 14/1 winners for this system the other Friday, which while it skews the profit figure, it is profit. You just have to wait for it to happen and so be patient.

      2. Well Martin and Gerry, you’ve pulled a blinder here today! I missed the first one, as is my want, but in classic after-timing fashion did just have a nibble on the winner of the 2.20 once i saw the form/draw/pace map, easy from the front. Burke really is on fire, and yea his overall record at South is just silly now, I wonder when the market will cotton on! Well done both. Hopefully a few others had a go, well seems like Max nabbed a decent price on the first one!

        1. Hopefully we will get this season before the market catches up Josh,we are on the front foot well and truly,think you could have had absolutio at 33 at times,was generally 16-20.Burke obviously targets this track with unexposed types and strikes from front running.The run in at Southwell can seem like the end of a 3m slog in the mud,very hard to make up ground,we might convert you yet to the sand,just hope they don’t dig it up

  2. Hi Josh
    Just watched your entertaining New Video explaining the strategies again!!! must admit a wonderful idiots guide and thank you for confirming that i am an idiot!!!
    On a serious note very understandable for any old or new members and certainly worth watching.
    Cheers
    Colin

      1. Blimey I don’t think that says much about all the other ones haha. I think I forget sometimes that I live it all so always seems simple in my ear but I suppose to New eyes or even old eyes it can still need explaining every now and then.

  3. COLINS AW BETS
    Francis put up yesterday,looking forward to the feast of AW action Jan/Feb! had a look back to Jan to March when only recorded AW.
    Bookmakers SP only was not recording BOG at this time.
    Jan + 46.44 points
    Feb + 38.22
    Mar + 37.82
    Total + 122.48 points all 1 point win.
    Unable to guarantee that i will repeat these figures this year but will try my best,and i do not now separate the AW from NH and Flat for Colins bets are for all codes of racing.
    Only started putting up AW bets from September 2017 for a few on the free pages were slating AW racing and i wanted to show that the AW racing can be profitable.
    2017 Bookmakers SP only
    Sep + 34.95
    Oct + 64.63
    Nov – 41.52
    Total + 58.06
    Sep/Mar + 180.54 points all 1 point win and at Bookmakers SP.
    Thank you Francis for your message for it made me review the past AW results certainly is gold in the SAND,and if it continues into 2018 then AW will do for me!!!
    Colin

    1. Re COLINS AW Bets. I am brand new to the RTP service and only 3 days in and thoroughly enjoying it this is only my second post. I immediately homed in on the above Post and what a performance that is on the AW – ave 27 points a month profit, almost i point a day! Obviously being so new i may have missed earlier info on this but can i ask the following please? I was wondering if it might be possible to have a bit of a ‘profile’ on this, with such as approximate Number of Bets, W/L Strike rate, and ROI. ? Thanks, and all the best with it all over the remaining Winter period.

      1. Hi John welcome to Joshs RTP you certainly have made a wise choice,will put a comment on the site for everyone about betting banks so have a scroll down and have a look.

        Colin

    1. Hi Paul, yep no idea why i’ve typed that! It’s just the Mulholland hncp hurdle one. Keep those eyes peeled 🙂

  4. I like Southwell, so a few ideas to back EW:-
    1150 Liberata Bella
    1250 Epeius
    120 Anna Jammeela
    150 Archimedes
    220 Hammer Gun
    250 Mr Coco Bean
    320 Showboating

  5. RECENT TIPS………..not sure why this didn’t post earlier but just noticed it aint there.
    daily
    U 12.30 – Neetside on 5th run @ 10
    U 3.00 – Cougars Gold on 5th run @ 10/3
    S 2.20 – Esprit de Corps on 2nd run @ 22
    S 3.20 – Break the Silence on 4th run @ 10
    Festival
    U 1.30 – Lovenormoney on 1st run @ 9
    …………Now McGinty on 3rd run @ 7
    3m+
    U 2.30 – Western Climate on 6th run @ 25
    GL

    odds are from around 9 so not sure how they stack up now.
    last weeks figs are on yesterdays post
    Mike

  6. COLINS BETS

    For any new members a brief history in the past had a tipping line in my own name of Colin Leafe and also had a line on Optimum Racing called Elite Racing also on Optimum Sports had a Golf tipping line,for honesty and transparency always record to Bookmakers SP and in June this year decided to record BOG as a comparison alongside Bookmakers SP.
    BOG for me must be two bookmakers showing a price will never put up a price from a stand alone bookmaker.
    In answer to Johns question
    Jan 159 bets
    Feb 135
    Mar 161 do believe that started to include NH from March,September to December were all AW bets.
    Strongly recommend a betting bank of 100 bets and with the plan below build your profit gradually and you will only risk your original bank provided you do not take out until you have built up enough.

    £5 bet bank of £500 when bank increases to £1000 next bet £10
    £10 bank £1000 when £1500 next bet £15
    £15 bank £1500 when £2000 next bet £20
    £20 keep following this process and you build up your stake and only risk your original bank.
    All results have been proven on Joshs RTP site and there is no false claims or fantasy prices.
    Unable to guarantee that this year will be the same as 2017,but can only stress if you follow Josh,nick,myself or anyone tipping horses you must have a separate betting bank for each one,and you must not take money out until you have built up a large enough bank to allow you to do this.
    Cheers
    Colin

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