Members Daily Post: 10/12/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Lingfield

3.00 – Deebaj   (micro runs) H1 G3 4/1  WON 4/1>7/2 

 

Musselburgh

12.15 – Max Leiberman  (HcH)  ES+ I3 25/1 S2A S3A S5 UP

2.45 –

Island Heights  (HcH)  w1 H1 13/2 3rd 

Arthurs Secret  (micro TJC) 14,30 G3 6/1 2nd 4/1 

3.15 – Attention Please  (HcCh) H3 G1 3/1  WON 3/1>9/2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Goldtrainer form’ indicators14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr3010+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES+ = ‘Elite Squad+’ = those angles from TTP stats pack with 10+ winners, 25%+ win SR 

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1won last start.   w2won two starts ago 

Welcome Video 2018/19>>>Watch HERE>>> Welcome Email HERE>>>

Updated: The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>> 

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end Sept 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

More Welcome Info  HERE>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Festival Tips/other thoughts)

Daily Tips (2018: 28/321,100p, -21.2 – on hold) Big Race/Festival Tips (2018: +147)

 

TEST Best of the Stats Quals? (19/74,37p, +11.1 , all 1 point win, all odds) 

2.45 Muss – Arthurs Secret – 6/1 (gen) 2nd 4/1…ah damn, well he was a couple of points too big but sadly the winner hadn’t made the trip for nothing. I was hoping he’d tire as they turned for home but he’s seen it out well. Poor Arthurs Secret has bumped into another one, but he got in a proper race for second and kept his head in front.

I think this price looks a shade too big and given the fav tries a new trip and has had 376 days off, i’m happy to take him on at 9/4 – he is the most interesting horse in the race moving forwards, his yard are in form, and he could well have a bit in hand. Arthur’s Secret – he’s slightly tricky horse but there’s every chance he’s the one to pass after the last and the race could fall into his lap. He is generally consistent and appears to try, but has always been hard to win with. He could just be unlucky in that he’s always bumped into something but he ticks all the boxes here. His yard are in superb form, 4/11,6p the last 14 days, the horse comes here fit and well after that decent effort LTO. He’s run at Muss in handicap hurdles 7 times and placed on 4 of them, rarely beaten too far. There’s a small chance that his effort 11 days ago took plenty out of him but hopefully he’s ok. He’ll look like the winner at some point during this, and lets hope he crosses the line first after the last. 6s is a shade too big I think. Blunder Buss is interesting if staying the trip – a chance he improves for it. Island Heights is interesting to a point but that wasn’t a strong race he won LTO and it was run in a very slow time. But he’s a LTO winner. Anyway, I suspect this one will win or it will be an agonising second where he doesn’t quite get there, again 🙂

that’s all for today, 08.55.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

1.30 Ling – For Carmel 3/1  UP

2.30 Ling – Jennys Surprise 11/4 WON 11/4>5/2 

Tom Lacey 

2.00 Ling – He’s A Goer 6/1 UP

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow

1.45 Muss – Monsieur Co (11/1< guide) 7/2 WON 7/2>5/2 

2.00 Ling – He’s A Goer 6/1 UP

LTO Winning Trainers

1.45 Muss – Ontopoftheworld (8/1<)  5/4 2nd 

Jockeys/Chasers

1.45 Muss – Ontopoftheworld 5/4 2nd 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

New members…  don’t forget to flick through the Key above if you haven’t already, including the welcome email/video and the ‘The Jumps Strategies: Where should you start’ doc. I may record a shorter/to the point video on the 4 main strategies as I get the impression many still look at section 1 and wonder what the hell is going on! 🙂 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

25 Comments

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  • Hi Josh, thanks for the tips and through the card. You hit the crossbar a few times with four places, some of which we had ew. Fortunately, between the four of us we picked a winner in each race apart from the National plus a few places. Good enough to pay for dinner on the way home. A cracking venue and a grand day out was had by all.

    Ken McKenzie 09/12/18 7:34 PM Reply


    • Thanks Ken, yep always annoying when no winners, and plenty of places. That’s how it goes, and it was a quick enough look, albeit even if I spend much longer the same can happen! I’m still sat thinking about whether I could have landed on old Harry- I think the Richard’s horse was going to take that, but he always has an error in his locker, and that was that- not sure many better or more consistent jumpers in handicap chases than Harry and that’s won him another race, again. Superb for connections. Glad you had a good day, and if winnings pay for dinner you can’t complain too much.

      Josh 10/12/18 1:54 PM Reply


  • Karl Burke on the all weather – 5.00 Wolverhampton, Dancing Ballerina, 16/1+, 1 point each way.

    martin colwell 09/12/18 9:32 PM Reply


  • today’s selections.
    Lingfield.
    1-30. Burgess Dream 12-1
    2-00. Harmonise 20-1 sky 4 places
    3-00. Minella Gathering 12-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

    martin whittle 10/12/18 1:21 AM Reply


    • Bloody hell 1.01 in the photo turned over in our favour maybe the luck is turning

      christopher jones 10/12/18 1:42 PM Reply


    • Couldn’t believe the commentator called that for Big Time Frank. It was so close in real time to my eyes.

      Ken McKenzie 10/12/18 2:18 PM Reply


    • 1 n/r so, staked 2 pts , returns 8.2 pts, up 6.2 pts

      martin whittle 10/12/18 5:12 PM Reply


  • RT -10.25
    330 Wol Mossy’s Lodge 4/1
    600 Wol Landing Light 9/2

    kevo19 10/12/18 2:47 AM Reply


  • Score draw yesterday with Total Assets scraping into a place.
    3.00 Ling 1pt ew Illtellmema 25/1
    Hugh

    alpha2 10/12/18 7:05 AM Reply


  • Morning,

    Well thanks to Nick (Ballyhill) and myself picking out Warriors tale in the last, Saturday wasn`t as uneventful as it could have been.
    Ultragold ran really well and I thought at one stage he was coming to win it, maybe he is a spring horse, but, did reiterate what i have already said, he absolutely loves these fences, reminds me of Amberleigh House..you can still get 50/1 some places for him in National if you shop around. That to me is value again, he has now proved he can stay and I don`t think the extra distance will be a factor as he gets into a rhythm over these fences, he may not have the speed to win, but, again as he looks better in spring he may have enough to burn them all off!
    Onto todays,

    14:45 @Musselburgh
    ARTHURS SECRET 6/1 gen 1pt win
    ISLAND HEIGHTS 7/1 gen 1pt win

    As always hope all horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you back today!

    Stewart 10/12/18 8:02 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    W 6.30 – Paddy A on 1st run @ 10
    3m+
    L 1.30 – Snowball on 2nd run @ 11
    L 2.30 – Ballyheigue Bay on 1st run @ 11/4
    GL

    Titus 10/12/18 8:36 AM Reply


    • w/e 9/12 figs

      Daily runners = 20
      Winners = 2 @ bog 15/2, 2, @ sp 15/2, 2
      p/l @ bog – 8.50
      p/l @ sp – 8.50
      There were 2 / 1 plcs @ bog 25, 30(after r4) @ sp 8?(10’s+ poss near off), 14

      Festival runners = 10
      Winners = @ bog @ sp
      p/l @ bog – 10
      p/l @ sp – 10
      There were 1 / 0 plcs @ bog 10 @ sp

      3m+ runners = 13
      Winners = @ bog , @ sp
      p/l @ bog – 13.00
      p/l @ sp – 13.00
      there were 2 / 1 plcs @ bog 10,20, @ sp 14,

      PLACES @ 10’s+ DO NOT INCLUDE WINS

      Titus 11/12/18 11:13 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Wolverhampton
    3.30 Mossy’s Lodge BOG 4/1
    6.00 Ornate BOG 7/1

    December quite start with only 8 bets

    SP – 5.25 BOG – 4.5

    Colin

    cleafe 10/12/18 10:03 AM Reply


    • Nice winner Colin.

      Looking forward to the feast of AW action Jan / Feb time!

      Francis 10/12/18 7:55 PM Reply


  • ELITE BETS

    No bet

    December SP -9 BOG – 9

    cleafe 10/12/18 10:16 AM Reply


  • result update:
    last week: staked 17 pts, returns 21.8 pts, up 4.8 pts.
    to date: staked 113.5 pts, returns 143.7, up 30.2 pts.
    as always returns are from my actual bets.

    martin whittle 10/12/18 10:54 AM Reply


    • well done Martin, building up some solid ROI returns there, most would take +30 every 115 invested over time. Keep it up. Josh

      Josh 10/12/18 1:52 PM Reply


  • Wolv’ 6.00 Bellevarde 9.8

    Only one from me today.

    Tim 10/12/18 11:39 AM Reply


  • Re: Arthur’s Secret. Well read Josh! He wasn’t beating the fav there was he

    Max H 10/12/18 3:08 PM Reply


    • well in hindsight he wasn’t, no – but after that break and step up in trip – he could have been keen, may not have seen it out, may have not been as fit as they thought, jumping could have been a question given inexperience etc – Arthur’s was best of the rest, but sadly yep the progressive one ran his race and answered all the questions. Thankfully they don’t all do that.

      Josh 10/12/18 3:10 PM Reply


  • Nice winner and (josh’s valiant 2nd ) forecast up for the 1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs 🙂 2.45 muss
    i took the the early r/fc on betfair still paid £ 47.00 to a £ 2.00 stake 🙂
    that was nice after yesterday when i had 4 winners but only 2 in each of my 2 trebles .. i am getting good at that 🙁 .. must remember to do singles as well 🙂
    keep up the stats ! 🙂
    gl/gb

    GEORGE B 10/12/18 3:23 PM Reply


    • nope soz .. it was the fav with josh’s valiant second .. i had 🙂
      🙂
      gl/gb

      GEORGE B 10/12/18 3:25 PM Reply


      • Well done George, I have seem to have picked one of the few stats quals to win today in the test! I need to get better at being annoyed at missing winners etc with that test, will happen plenty, and the cumulative PL all that matters over time, but still rather annoying! Always pleasing to read members using the info in any way they please to have a good day. Well done.

        Josh 10/12/18 4:08 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I’m a newbie yo your service and have to say how much I am enjoying it, thankyou. I watched your video, and keep running through all your stats and have to say how impressed I am. It took a while to sort it out in my head but I’m finally grasping it. Betting small stakes at the moment with a 200 point bank and I’m in front …..happy days!! Big thankyou to yourself and the members that offer up their tips, clearly a lot of talent out there! Kind regards, Tom.

    Tom Murgatroyd 10/12/18 4:41 PM Reply


    • Well Tom, reading such comments doesn’t half lift the mood.. non strategy wise i’m going through a tough period of picking horses in the big races nearer last than first, not considering the winners fully (that always frustrates me most) and then with the best of the stats quals test – well, landing on some, missing plenty scooting home! But it’s a test for a reason and work to do there.

      I’m glad it’s all coming together for you- i’m quite aware there’s a lot to take in and it’s a different approach to anything most will have experienced but there are no shortcuts to making this game enjoyable and profitable over time- there’s a mix of responses, the negative ones in private from newbies- which make me think I need to be explaining it all even more- but there’s only so much I can do. I think it all makes sense in time and is easy enough to grasp- in time! Once you work out what is what, and why strategies are strategies, what the 4 different sections are each day etc – i’m convinced this portfolio approach + the community + space to think for yourself… is the best way to enjoy this sport, but it isn’t for everyone. Many want to be spoon fed which is fine, but in order to get something out of it you do have to take the time and put some effort in, even a small effort to working out what the hell is going on haha. Glad you appear to be on the right track. Winning at this game is a long trudge at times, but everything is here in this members club that we need to win long term.
      Yep – I’m lucky with the racing fans that have found their way to these pages and who take the time to post etc, there are shrewdies everywhere you look , all driving each other on, all with different approaches. Some friendly competition which is great. In time you’ll no doubt add the odd one to your own portfolio.
      I’m convinced those that ‘get it’ in time, really get it and helps them enjoy the game like never before, so your comment is welcome, as they all are.
      Cheers, Josh

      Josh 10/12/18 4:55 PM Reply


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